Bottineau, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS63 KBIS 142043
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible this
  afternoon and evening, mainly across south central North
  Dakota. The main severe threat is 70 mph wind, hail up to half
  dollar size and a brief tornado.

- Very heavy rain is also possible with thunderstorms through
  tonight and localized flash flooding can not be ruled out over
  the south central. Periods of heavy rain through Friday
  morning may produce rain amounts up to 4 inches in some areas
  of western and central North Dakota.

- Breezy to windy, especially southwest and south central
  Thursday and Friday.

- Much colder late in the work week and through the weekend.
  Frost is possible and even some freezing temperatures on
  Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A brief synopsis followed by a more in depth discussion on the
key points.

A strong storm system will impact western and central North
Dakota this afternoon through Friday. Initially, the threat will
be mainly severe thunderstorms with very heavy rain. Some
training storms are possible through this evening. Localized
flash flooding is possible. After the sever threat this evening,
showers and some thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue
into Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon through early Friday
the threat for thunder will diminish greatly, but moderate to
heavy rain is expected to continue. Strong to very strong winds
are expected Thursday through Friday. Colder air is expected
behind the system, with the potential for frost and possibly
some freezing temperatures possible Saturday and Sunday
mornings.

Another system will lift into the Plains states early next week,
and possibly as early as late Sunday. There is a lot of
uncertainty with this system. For now will stick with the NBM,
which already is showing some high chance to likely pops already
by Sunday night into Monday. This system is part of a double
barreled upper low that swings into the Plains. Would not be
surprised to see a lot of uncertainty in the next few runs as
energy between the northern and southern upper lows gets
resolved.

...Severe Weather...

The main severe weather threat today looks to be early on in the
event, along and either side of the Missouri River and mainly south
of the I-94 corridor. We did pull the mention of severe storms
slightly west, mainly just west of the River. The main hazards
today into this evening will be winds to 70 mph and hail to the
size of half dollars. A brief tornado can not be ruled out, most
likely this afternoon. Very heavy rainfall is also possible with
any storms that develop. With a meridional flow today and this
evening, the potential for training storms will exist. More
about the heavy rain later.

With the axis of instability pushing into ND this afternoon,
right along the Missouri River, the main severe hail threat
looks to be right along and just east of the Missouri River.
Along and west of the Missouri, the shear vectors are parallel
to the surface boundary. Ongoing convection over southwest ND
will remain sub-severe. Convection developing over Grant County
and pushing northward would favor upscale growth but probably
messy convection considering that it`s so near to the sub-severe
convection just to the west.

The tornado threat does look to be low, however with a north to
south boundary indicated through Emmons county and into eastern
Burleigh county. Will need to monitor convection along this
boundary. WoFS was indicating some increased 0-2km UH values
here this afternoon. After this afternoon, think the threat for
tornadic storms is quite low.

Overall, the WoFs indicates the overall 4hr probability for
severe weather is relatively low, and situated along and just
east of the Missouri River. Will need to monitor convection
along the cold front this afternoon. WoFS also indicates a good
probability of >40dbz into Bismarck around 22Z. As can be seen
with the slow progression of convection over the southwest, once
convection develops and begins tracking north, it may continue
for a while.

...Heavy Rain...

Precipitable water values will increase substantially across western
and especially central ND. 850-300 MB mean winds are generally due
south this afternoon and evening over central ND. This increases the
chances of training thunderstorms over the same area and will need
to be monitored. Moisture transport will continue to increase into
the area through the day and into tonight. The threat for localized
flash flooding is not considered high, but the training
thunderstorms will pose at least some risk of flash flooding.
However, our significant soil moisture deficits will substantially
reduce expected runoff from a given rainfall total. Thus, these
rains are expected to be far more beneficial than hazardous. However
we will need to closely monitor for the potential of at least
nominal amounts of areal flooding in low-lying areas.

With our recent dry conditions and given the general configuration
of the forecast heavy rain, the main concerns for localized flash
flooding will most likely be early in the event (this afternoon
through tonight) and will result from training cells and very high
rainfall rates associated with thunderstorms. Given the location of
the heaviest qpf is located along the Missouri River basin, these
storms pose near zero risk of flooding on the Missouri River itself.
Regarding the streams west of the river, draining into the Missouri
(Cannonball, Heart and Knife) the highest qpf amounts are centered
over the eastern portions of these basins, even smaller streams like
Square Butte and Otter creeks are located entirely within the
highest qpf area, but are still not expected to rise out of their
banks. East of the Missouri, the Beaver, Apple, Painted Woods, and
Hay creek basins could be of more concern given their respective
watersheds all lie within the area of high qpf. McKenzie Slough will
help minimize any risk of flooding along Apple Creek by slowing
runoff. Farther to the north, (Souris Basin) total rainfall amounts
are also impressive, but the very high rainfall rates associated
with thunderstorms will be much less likely.

Overall, urban areas early in the event would be of greatest
concern. Training of storms, even outside of urban areas will also
be a concern this afternoon through late evening or the early
morning hours. Thereafter, we may still see localized overland
flooding concerns, especially within poor drainage areas,
through Thursday and even through Friday. In addition to
localized flooding of small creeks and streams. localized flash
flooding threats however, will diminish after tonight.

...Strong Winds...

We have issued a wind advisory for southwest and south central
North Dakota Thursday through Thursday evening. As the stacked
system deepens over the eastern Dakotas Thursday and lingers
into early Friday, Gradient winds will increase over western and
central ND. The strongest winds are expected to be in the
southwest Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, strong winds
will spread into the south central and towards the James River
Valley late in the Day. Overnight, strong winds may continue
over the JRV, with a lull in the southwest. On Friday winds may
increase again across all of forecast area, before from west
to east Friday afternoon and Friday night. It`s possible that we
may need to extend at least portions of the advisory through
Friday. It is also possible that portions of the advisory may
need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The ECMWF SA page is
not overly impressed with winds at this time, and a good
portion of the strongest winds will occur overnight Thursday
night and early Friday morning. With this uncertainty, will
start with the advisory and let later shifts adjust as needed.

...Cold weather...

Highs on Thursday and Friday will be quite cold, mainly in the
40s within the deformation zone of the strong cyclone.
Fortunately the cloud cover should inhibit frost or freezing
temperatures Thursday night. Friday night and Saturday night
will bring the potential for frost, or even some freezing
temperatures over a good portion of western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A low pressure system developing over the central and northern
Plains will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to
western and central North Dakota this afternoon through the 18Z
TAF period. Thunderstorms will be the main concern this
afternoon and this evening, with the most probable area for
severe storms being over the south central, including Bismarck.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread south to north across much
of central ND by this evening. Over western ND, MVFR to IFR
ceilings will continue through much of the period. LIFR ceilings
are possible later tonight through Thursday morning. LIFR
ceilings will also spread east to envelop much of central North
Dakota by Thursday morning. Strong north to northwest winds will
also develop over western and central ND Thursday morning, with
the strongest winds expected beyond the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT
/midnight MDT/ Friday for NDZ019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH