Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

902
FXUS62 KRAH 220023
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
825 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 825 PM Saturday...

* Higher confidence in scattered showers and isolated storms over
  our western and southern Piedmont this evening into the early
  overnight hours, with a period of gusty winds ahead of and with
  the showers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 350 PM Saturday...

1) There remains a marginal risk of hail and strong gusty winds this
evening over our southwest counties. There is a non-zero threat of
storms Monday in our southeast but confidence remains low.

2) The combination of unseasonably warm temperatures, low humidity,
dry fuels, and breezy conditions behind a cold front favor an
elevated fire danger risk on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 350 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There remains a marginal risk of hail and strong
gusty winds this evening over our southwest counties. There is a non-
zero threat of storms Monday in our southeast but confidence remains
low.

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted a diminishing orographic-
enhanced cirrus shield over the central Piedmont and Sandhills
region. Further upstream, a cu field has started to develop over the
higher terrain. Sfc analysis depicted some higher sfc dew points
(lower 50s) creeping into the southern Piedmont. While pockets of
CIN still exist in this vicinity given the cirrus shield just moved
north the past few hours, SBCAPE will develop over the next few
hours reaching upwards of 500 J/kg. A weak sfc boundary, largely
depicted by a light wind shift and theta-e gradient is still
expected to form somewhere along the NC/SC border.  Sfc convergence
along this boundary, along with the passage of a very weak mid-level
perturbation should initiate isolated to scattered convection 1)
over the western slopes of the higher terrain, and 2) along and
south of the aforementioned weak sfc boundary. Guidance still
depicts elongated and straight hodographs (with upwards of 35 knots
of effective shear), inverted V profiles, and strong mid-level lapse
rates accompanying this CI. As such, there remains the chance for
isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
(DCAPE in this vicinity will peak around 900 J/kg). Some CAMs
suggest an isolated stronger storms could inch closer to the Triad
(weakening with eastward extend but possibly reaching the Triangle).
However, given trends associated with the cirrus shield, think it`ll
be more difficult to destabilize in that vicinity. Any lingering
convection will dissipate with time overnight.

After potentially record breaking heat on Sunday (highs in the upper
80s but dry weather expected), a non-zero threat for storms is
possible ahead of strong sfc cold front Monday afternoon. Most
guidance keeps the deeper moisture transport well to our south and
offshore, however there may be a small window where some instability
and accompanying stronger shear could produce and isolated stronger
storm in the southeast Monday afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The combination of unseasonably warm temperatures,
low humidity, dry fuels, and breezy conditions behind a cold front
favor an elevated fire danger risk on Monday.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through central NC in the
late morning and early afternoon on Monday, with only a slight
chance of showers and storms in the east and southeast. High
temperatures will reach the mid-70s to lower-80s, and with dew
points crashing into the 30s and 40s behind the front, RH values
will drop to 25-30% across the western Piedmont by mid afternoon.
Post-frontal gustiness could also reach up to 20-25 mph according to
GFS and NAM forecast soundings. While winds look too low for Red
Flag Warning criteria, these factors combined with dry fuels could
still result in an increased fire danger risk in the west on Monday
from mid afternoon to early evening. The SACC outlook continues to
highlight that area in a high risk for significant fire potential.
Some will depend on the frontal orientation, as most guidance seems
to suggest post-frontal winds having more of a northerly vs westerly
component, which would somewhat limit downsloping potential. While
an IFD may eventually be needed, for now continue to highlight in
our HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 825 PM Saturday...

While VFR conditions will prevail over much of central NC over much
of the next 24 hours, of most immediate concern is the scattered
showers and storms moving NW to SE toward our area and expected to
sweep into our far western and southern counties over the next
several hours. INT is expected to see an hour or so of gusty winds
up to 20-25 kts even well out ahead of the activity, along with a
period of mostly light showers and perhaps some thunder between now
(00z) and 03z, with brief MVFR vsbys possible. This activity should
skirt to the SW of GSO, but there could still be a period of thunder
reported. This activity is then expected to move near FAY and
perhaps RWI around 02z-07z, and while a few 15-20 kts gusts can`t be
ruled out at these sites, it is expected to have weakened to just a
period of VFR-vsby showers by that time. Otherwise, cigs will be
mostly mid-level, above 6kft AGL through daybreak Sun, with winds
mostly light (outside of any showers or storms). Skies are expected
to trend fair with just high clouds after 11z NW to SE, with minimal
clouds Sun. Surface winds after daybreak Sun will be mostly from the
SW or WSW at 7-12 kts with periodic gusts to 15-20 kts.

Outlook beyond 00z Mon: VFR conditions are largely expected,
although a period of showers with isolated storms are possible Mon
afternoon and evening, associated with a strong cold front. The
greatest chances for precip will be at FAY. Gusty winds up to 30 kts
will be possible at all sites from the SW Mon and from the N and NE
late Mon through Mon night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 85/1948 KRDU: 89/1907 KFAY: 88/1948

March 23: KFAY: 86/1948

March 27: KFAY: 87/1946


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 21: KGSO: 61/1921

March 22: KGSO: 63/1948 KFAY: 63/1948

March 23: KFAY: 64/1952

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...Hartfield