Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

894
FXUS62 KRAH 281724
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1225 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will hold just to our south and west through
much of today, then lift back north as a warm front tonight. A
strong cold front will sweep across the state on Monday,
bringing dry and cool weather through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Sunday...

* Patchy fog, potentially dense at times, will be possible along and
  north of the I-85 corridor late this evening into the early
  overnight hours.

In-situ CAD is locked in by low overcast and drizzle/light-rain that
is occurring at this time, especially over the Piedmont. Light rain
and drizzle is expected to shift east and weaken through the evening
hours. At the same time, the warm front to our south will begin to
lift northward into the overnight hours. Moisture advection ahead of
the warm front will likely result in rapidly lowering cloud bases
after 03z and may result in patchy to areas of fog, potentially
dense, as this cloud layer lowers to the ground. The most likely
area will be the climatologically favored areas along and north of
the I-85 corridor, but could be as far south as the Triangle. A non-
diurnal temperature curve is expected tonight as the warm front
gradually mixes northward into Mon morning, although this warming
may be slower than forecast guidance suggest which typically mixes
out the CAD regime too quickly. Forecast refinements will likely be
needed once the strength of CAD develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Sunday...

* Pattern change with the passage of a strong cold front, which will
  bring gusty winds, mostly light precipitation, and return
  temperatures to below normal.

* Southwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible ahead of the
  cold front with frequent 30-35 mph northwest winds after its
  passage.

* Low relative humidity and strong, veering wind gusts will result in
  increased fire danger to near Red Flag criteria behind the cold
  front Mon afternoon. Please see Fire Weather section below for
  more information.

No major changes from previous AFD. The wedge-front is expected to
slowly mix northward into VA Mon morning, with even the slowest
guidance suggesting it will clear the Triad around 12-15z, perhaps
only hanging on in far northwest Forsyth. A deep sub-990mb low over
the Upper Great Lakes Mon morning will shift into western Quebec by
Mon evening and will drive a strong cold front east of the
Appalachians Mon morning and traversing central NC by early
afternoon. Since central NC should be within the warm sector at this
point, as the boundary layer begins to heat, southwesterly winds
ahead of the front (eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain)
are expected to begin gusting 20-30 mph. Persistent cloud cover
ahead of the front should limit the stronger wind gusts highlighted
in the hi-res guidance. The strongest wind gusts will most likely be
behind the front and when clearing of the low-overcast begins (16z
northwest, 20z east). At this time, frequent wind gusts of 30 to 35
mph will be possible; infrequent gusts of around 40 mph should be
expected as well. Pressure rises and CAA should continue well into
Mon night and result in periodic gusts of around 25 mph becoming
less frequent after 2 AM.

Precipitation is expected to spread east immediately along and
behind the cold front, driven by strong 925mb FGEN overlapping
intense H5 height falls of 100-150 dam in 12 hours. This intense
forcing may provide a favorable setup for a narrow cold-frontal
rainband to develop, which would be capable of locally heavier
rainfall and briefly strong wind gusts. Latest hi-res guidance
suggest timing of this feature, and the cold front forcing it, would
be 12-18z from west to east across central NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Sunday...

* Gusty winds and low humidity Tuesday may bring a concern for
  adverse fire weather conditions, which could last into Wed.

* Chilly Tue with much below normal temperatures, then moderating to
  more seasonable readings Wed-Sat.

*Rain possible late Friday through early Sunday.

Tuesday will be the coldest day of the period as an Arctic high
builds in behind a cold front, reinforced by a strong mid-level low
over the Canadian Maritimes and a broad trough. Under northwesterly
flow, strong cold air advection, highs are expected to be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Gusty NW winds of 2025 mph will produce wind
chills in the upper 20s in the morning and 30s through much of the
day. Minimum RH values of 2030 percent combined with gusty winds of
20-25mph may bring localized fire weather concerns, though cold
temperatures should limit the overall threat. Lows Tuesday night
will drop into the mid 20s for the region one more night.
Temperatures begin moderate to near seasonal normal for the
remainder of the week with generally dry conditions through Friday.
Breezy conditions continue Wednesday with gusts near 20 mph and
minimum RH values dropping into the upper teens to mid 20s, mainly
across the Northern Piedmont, potentially leading to another day of
elevated fire weather concerns. Again, temperatures may limit the
overall threat. The mid-level trough exits the East Coast Wednesday,
though a broader longwave trough lingers over eastern the eastern
US. This will support periods of fair to partly cloudy skies through
Thursday. The good news is that New Years Eve celebrations across
central NC should remain dry. Temperatures NYE around midnight are
expected to be in the mid to upper 30s with a light westerly wind
resulting in apparent temperatures in the low 30s. By late Thursday
into early  Friday, another weak cold front will move across the
Ohio Valley and over Central NC bringing slightly cooler
temperatures across the northern Piedmont before the front stalls to
the south. By the weekend, the frontal boundary lingering from SC to
TX will slowly creep into the region bringing the next chance for
light precip, mainly on Saturday. However, precipitation timing has
sped up slightly with the newest model runs, with rain chances now
arriving late Friday night and exiting by early Sunday morning.
Forecast confidence remains low as models differ on surface low
track. The GFS remains the drier solution, tracking the low along
the Gulf Coast and across N. Florida, while the ECMWF is wetter,
lifting the low north over the Tennessee Valley and northern Georgia
before exiting off the NC/SC coast early Sunday. Temperatures will
trend slightly above normal by Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in restrictions through much of
the TAF period, but low confidence on the specifics.

INT/GSO are currently on the eastern edge of IFR visibilities. Model
guidance suggests that the IFR visibilities should be well west of
these sites, and have chosen to maintain an IFR visibility simply
through a persistence forecast. Similarly, ceilings are right on the
IFR/LIFR border. Farther to the east, RDU/FAY should maintain VFR
visibilities along with MVFR ceilings through the afternoon, but
think that the MVFR ceilings at RWI will be fleeting and that they
should return to VFR ceilings for a few hours this afternoon.

A low-level jet will develop tonight, bringing LLWS to all
terminals, although have delayed the introduction of LLWS to the FAY
TAF, as it appears it will take slightly longer for the jet to move
south. As a cold front comes through Monday morning around sunrise
in the west, that will bring gusts between 20 to 30 kt and bring an
end to the low level wind shear. While there could be some patchy
drizzle overnight ahead of the front, think that the primary chance
of rain will be with the frontal passage.

As low-level moisture increases overnight, conditions will drop at
most terminals, with an extended period of LIFR at INT/GSO and IFR
at RDU. Will maintain the patchy dense fog at INT/GSO inherited from
the 12Z TAFs. Farther to the south and east, think that RWI will
have more intermittent MVFR ceilings and that FAY will only have
intermittent MVFR ceilings with the frontal passage itself.

Outlook: As the frontal passage continues, a line of gusty showers
will remain possible Monday afternoon with gusts as high as 35 kt.
Wind gusts should decrease to 20-25 kt after sunset, and any cig/vis
restrictions should also come to an end around sunset. Beginning
Tuesday, VFR conditions should dominate through the rest of the
outlook period with high pressure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1215 PM Sunday...

A strong cold front is forecast to shift across central NC Monday
morning through the early afternoon hours. Behind the front, and
especially as skies begin to clear, strong downsloping winds,
rapidly dropping relative humidity, and gradually veering winds, will
pose an elevated concern for increased fire behavior. By 18z,
sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph will become
increasingly possible as relative humidity values rapidly drop below
30%. These parameters will likely overlap for 3-5 hours over a given
area, first over the western Piedmont, and shift eastward through
the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain between 18z and
00z. After coordination with NCFS, we are planning to issue a RFW for
central NC west of I-95 for Monday from Noon through 6 PM.

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will also be possible
on Tues and Wed when relative humidity values will be exceptionally
dry, in the low 20s and teens, during peak heating. Wind gusts and
soil conditions will likely be the driving factors on whether any
headlines will be needed each day. Gusts on Tues will be slightly
stronger with frequent gusts around 20 to 25 mph expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...np/AS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...np/AS