Wilson, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

391
FXUS62 KRAH 201850
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop slowly south across the mid-Atlantic tonight
and then across Virginia into North Carolina on Monday before
stalling along the Carolina coast through mid week. Drier and
somewhat cooler air will spread into the region behind the front
through mid week, before temperatures and humidity rise late in the
work week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

* A break from the seemingly regular flood of afternoon and evening
  storms with a just a few showers or storms expected, mainly north
  and west of Interstate 85.

* Still hot and humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s into
  the early evening and heat index values as high as 10 to 109 in
  most locations through late afternoon.

A west to northwest flow aloft in a deep layer of the troposphere is
noted across central NC this afternoon. A surface trough is noted
across the eastern Carolinas with a light west to west-northwest
surface wind across central NC. While the airmass across the area is
moderately unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg; mid
level lapse rates are anemic. With a generally subsident pattern in
a moist environment, we expect a good deal of cumulus clouds across
central this afternoon and evening but most will be without any
significant depth. This pattern supports limited convective coverage
and just a few showers or storms today. The greatest risk of a
shower or storm will north and west of Interstate-85 across the
western and northern Piedmont, including the Triad. In addition, a
large complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop in the OH
Valley and dive southeast and weaken as they move into the southern
Appalachians. This system should largely weaken as it approaches the
Triad, but a lingering or stubborn shower or storm could move into
the Triad area late this evening. With this in mind, will include
only slight chance PoPs in the forecast, mainly across the western
and northern Piedmont although a rogue shower or storm is possible
anywhere. Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s late this afternoon
will slowly drop tonight, not reaching the lower 80s til around
midnight with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. -Blaes &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 AM Sunday...

A string of mid-level perturbations will cross the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday while a sfc backdoor cold front oozes down from the mouth of
the Chesapeake.  Convergence and upper forcing from these features
will trigger scattered to numerous storms across central NC Monday
afternoon and evening. The 00Z HREF indicates the potential for
unseasonably stronger bulk layer shear (20 to 30 kts) across
northern parts of our area. Similarly, the 00Z HREF indicated a
clustering of mid-level helicity swaths in the Coastal Plain. Thus,
there appears to be a kinematic signal for some storm organization
potential especially across northern areas Monday afternoon/evening.
It`s also worth noting that the ML/AI severe weather outlook
guidance (Pangu, FengWu, CSU MLP; which have performed quite well
the past few days) continue to highlight "slight risk" level
probabilities over central NC Monday.  The primary threat from any
stronger storm Monday would be damaging wind gusts. Additionally,
flash flooding would be possible with any stronger downpour,
especially over the classic urban areas.

Temperatures might be a few degrees "cooler" on Monday, but should
still reach the lower to mid 90s across the south. These areas may
reach Heat Advisory criteria.

Convection will largely diminish by sunrise Tuesday morning as the
backdoor cold front pushes towards the NC/SC border.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

* Cooler temperatures mid week with highs in the 80s and low 90s
  along with little rain chances.

* Heat and humidity return late week into the weekend with heat
  indices in the low 100s.

Upper level ridge building across the Central Plains Tuesday will
shift east through the week. By late week and into the weekend,
upper level ridge will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast as another
weak tough moves in behind. At the surface, the frontal boundary is
expected to move off the coast early Tuesday. The dry air will not
come in until late Tuesday thus lingering isolated showers and
storms are possible Tuesday. High pressure centered off the New
England Coast Wednesday will help influence dry weather for our
region. As it pushes off the coast Thursday, high pressure will
weaken and the lingering front along the coast could creep northward
resulting in some isolated storms Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Have isolated PoPs for the Sandhills and Southern Coastal Plain
Thursday and Friday afternoons. As weak surface trough will develop
across the region Sat bringing another round of precip Sat/Sun in
the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will start off below normal Tuesday and Wednesday with
highs in the 80s. As high pressure builds in and reduced rain
chances Thursday onward becomes above normal with highs in the low
to mid 90s. Dew points will creep back into the 70s Thursday onward
with heat indices expected to be in the 100-106 range Friday-Sunday
especially along and east of the US-1 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions and fair weather are noted across central
NC this afternoon with a few cumulus clouds and a veil of some high
clouds. The airmass across central NC is a little less moist with a
rather subsident regime resulting in a clear radar display across
central NC as of 18Z. With additional heating and a moderately
unstable airmass with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000, a few rogue
showers or storms are possible late this afternoon and evening,
mainly across the western and northern Piedmont, in an arc mainly
north of Interstate-85. In addition, a large complex of
thunderstorms is expected to develop in the OH Valley and dive
southeast and weaken as they move into the southern Appalachians.
This system should largely weaken as it approaches the Triad, but a
lingering or stubborn shower or storm could move into the Triad area
late this evening. With coverage expected to be minimal, will keep
convection out the the TAFs. There isn`t much signal for fog or
stratus tonight either. Accordingly, TAFs depict fair weather with
VFR conditions. Light west to northwest winds at 6 to 10kts are
expected this afternoon with a few gusts to 18kts in the Triad.
Light west winds at less than 5kts are expected tonight with
northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts on Monday.

Looking beyond 18Z Monday, scattered to numerous showers and storms
are expected across central NC on Monday afternoon and especially
the evening hours as a cold front moves through. Areas of low clouds
are expected on Tuesday morning. A period of drier and less stormy
weather with mainly VFR conditions is expected through mid week
before the chance of afternoon and evening storms returns as we
approach the weekend.  -Blaes
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ008>011-
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ042-043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Blaes