Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS62 KILM 251124
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
624 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue today before a cool down briefly on
Friday due to a backdoor front. Temperatures will warm back up
over the weekend before a strong cold front brings brief rain
chances and much colder weather late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Patchy fog across portions of coastal SC should gradually
dissipate this morning with the help of mid level cloud and
daytime mixing. Aviation discussion has also been updated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Southwest winds strengthen today with surface high pressure
offshore. Southerly warm air advection will push temperatures into
the mid 70s this afternoon. Onshore flow at the coast will keep
highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but low level thicknesses
should be comparable.

Pockets of mid level moisture associated with a weak shortwave will
lead to periods of clouds, primarily this morning. A mix of sunshine
and clouds stretching as late as early afternoon shouldn`t impact
temperatures too much, but I have maintained highs on the lower side
of the ensemble median.

Winds turn westerly tonight ahead of a cold front on Friday. Lows
will be a bit tricky tonight, centered around timing of the frontal
boundary. The front will move through the region from NE to SW. The
arrival of the front will pull temperatures into the 40s for the
northeastern tier of the CWA with areas to the southwest staying in
the lower 50s. The front will be positioned near the NC/SC border by
sunrise, hence the difficulty with overnight lows. An inconsistent
mix of clouds and peeks of clear skies this evening may also
complicate lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Overall the mid level pattern will continue to be
somewhat zonal through the end of the holiday week and into the
weekend. This is helping to maintain weaker quicker systems across
the region. A modest northeast flow will be in place from the
passage of a mostly dry backdoor front but will quickly shift to the
south and warm considerably. Under dry conditions highs will
increase into the 60s Friday and well into the 70s on Saturday. In
some cases this approaches record highs for this date. Morning lows
will be well into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Changeable conditions continue for the extended period
as yet another backdoor essentially dry front moves across Sunday
which will serve to reset near record breaking warmth closer to
normal. However the warmth returns once again Monday ahead of a more
meaningful system...this one with some pops that moves across
Tuesday. The parent longwave trough with this system appears to have
some staying power at least through the New Year`s Holiday with
several cycles well below normal on temperatures especially morning
lows in the middle to upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Patchy fog has continued through the overnight hours as
inconsistent cloud cover developed across the region. VFR will
emerge this morning, leaving said mid level clouds. Clearer
skies are expected later today while SW winds increase; gusts
up to 20 knots are expected this afternoon. A cold front drops
south of the area late tonight, likely bringing low CIGs and
MVFR by the end of the period.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions will be possible on Friday as a
cold front moves through the area from the north. VFR should return
this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Onshore flow this morning will continue to
veer through the afternoon as surface high pressure moves
offshore. Veering southwesterly flow increases this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front tonight. Gusts this afternoon
and this evening will generate wind waves around 2-3 feet. The
cold front approaches the area late tonight with increasing
northeast winds. Gusts to 20 knots are possible before the end
of the period, primarily for the NC nearshore waters.

Friday through Monday... With the frequent systems noted in the
short term public discussion the wind shifts and associated
short lived fetches are probably too numerous to discuss
individually. The highlights include a NE flow Friday and
Sunday. A return flow develops Saturday and again early next
week with the one MOnday being more significant. Sea fog could
be a possibility early next week as well with a Small Craft
Advisory coming into play. The cold air advection is also
formidable and wouldn`t be surprised with Gale conditions at
least from a gust standpoint.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB/VAO
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/21