Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS62 KILM 191734
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will bring southwesterly winds and hot weather
across the Carolinas through Monday. A weak front is expected to
approach from the north late Monday bringing increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler and drier air
Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat and humidity may return late in the week
as Bermuda High Pressure strengthens offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There`s a notable lack of cumulus early this afternoon, so am
expecting any showers/tstms to remain pretty isolated if they
get going. Otherwise another night of low temps in the 75-80
range propped up by SW flow between surface high off the SE
coast and a weak Piedmont trough. A 500 mb shortwave will ride
over the ridge and cross the Mid-Atlantic late tonight/early
Sunday, and any associated dynamics should remain north of the
forecast area. Surface winds will take on more of a westerly
component on Sunday, and the forecast is almost a carbon copy of
today. HREF indicates perhaps a little more convective
development Sunday afternoon, but still remaining widely
scattered. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for Sunday, with
heat indices once again reaching the 105-109 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The 500 mb ridge will creep westward along the Gulf coast allowing
our upper level winds to turn northwesterly.  A shortwave diving
southeastward across northern New England will help to drive a
surface cold front southward, reaching the eastern Carolinas during
the day Monday. Monday`s seabreeze should hold the front onshore
through the day, however the increase in low level convergence
provided by the front should lead to more widespread showers
and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon through Monday night
where forecast PoPs are as high as 50 percent along the NC
coast.

Monday should be the last day of the heat wave and inland highs are
anticipated to again reach the mid to upper 90s with Heat Advisory
conditions (heat index 105-109 degrees.)

Lows both nights in the 70s should allow Wilmington to continue to
extend its streak of consecutive 70+ degree low temps to 47 days,
6th on the all-time list.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front itself should finally push offshore and to our south
by early Tuesday morning allowing a modest airmass change to occur
Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered convective showers or t-storms
could still occur Tuesday even behind the front with steep low level
lapse rates and dewpoints still holding above 70, although dry mid
level conditions may limit their coverage. NBM PoPs in the 50-70
percent range are likely too high and I expect coverage to be closer
to 30-50 percent instead. By Wednesday, dewpoints could slip into
the 60s which should lead to a more stable (and comfortable) airmass
with much lower chances for showers.

The big upper ridge should remain just to our west late in the week.
The old front should stall somewhere near the GA/FL state line
Wednesday into Thursday, likely washing out with time. We do have to
monitor stalled fronts closely this time of year for tropical
development although model ensembles don`t have a significant signal
for anything in the Atlantic at this time. The influence of the
Bermuda High offshore may grow again from Thursday onward leading to
a gradual increase in temperatures and humidity along with isolated
showers and thunderstorms late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Am not including showers/tstms in TAFs at this time, as satellite
imagery shows very few Cu. Best chance over the next couple of hours
will be at KILM along the sea breeze inflection. KFLO and KLBT may
see activity migrate in from the west late this afternoon, but
confidence is low. Otherwise, VFR with SW flow through the afternoon
and overnight. Convection unlikely produce showers/tstms on Sunday
before 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Will maintain mostly a persistence forecast
through Sunday as SW flow continues between surface high
pressure off the SE coast and a Piedmont trough inland. The
trough will approach the coast overnight and the resulting
stronger gradient should keep winds in a 15-20 kt range into
early Sunday. The strength of the gradient will fluctuate Sunday
and this will lead to some variability in winds speeds. For the
most part winds should hold in a 15-15 kt range, but some gusts
to 20 kts can be expected, especially during the afternoon.
Showers/tstms should remain very isolated over the waters.

Sunday night through Thursday...Bermuda High Pressure will remain
offshore all of next week. Sunday night should see a continuation of
the weather we`ve had the past several days with moderate
southwesterly synoptic flow. Isolated showers or t-storms are again
possible. By Monday attention will turn to a cold front approaching
from the north that should make it down to the coast during the
morning but likely won`t make it offshore during the day due to
Monday`s seabreeze winds holding it back. Showers and thunderstorms
could become more widespread than we`ve seen recently near the coast
due to the front`s presence late Monday afternoon through Monday
night.

The front should finally nudge offshore Monday night, shifting winds
to the northeast. While model blends give winds only in the 10-15
knot range, we`ve collaborated with NWS MHX to increase that to 15-
20 knots late Monday night into Tuesday night in what should be a
pretty good post-frontal surge. Seas could increase to 5 feet Tue-
Tue night north of Cape Fear with the increased wind forecast. The
front is expected to stall out somewhere near the FL/GA border
Wednesday into Thursday. Among model ensembles there are a minority
of members that try to develop a low along the front Wednesday or
Thursday and push it westward toward the SE coast, however the vast
majority do not. The most likely solution is the front will wash out
late in the week as our winds veer more easterly by Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...ILM