New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS62 KMHX 111921
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
321 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moves away from the area tonight. High
pressure then builds in again late this weekend into early next
week before another cold front pushes through the region mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:

- There is a low end/MARGINAL Severe Weather Threat (Level 1 of
   5) across eastern NC through late today

As of 320 PM Friday...A well-defined mid-level shortwave, is
pivoting southeast around the mid level trough as it moves into
eastern NC today. At the surface, a broad but deepening low was
currently located over eastern NC and is forecast to track NE of
the area this evening while swinging a cold front across the
region. As this occurs, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop across the area during peak heating. A few of the
storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts
and hail the main threats. The showers and storms should
dissipate rapidly around sunset with the loss of heating.

This afternoon a region of decent 700-500 MB lapse rates around
7.5 C/km will occur over the area and coincide the exit region
of the upper jet to produce sufficient synoptic scale lift to
support scattered convection. Surface dewpoints in the 50s
combined with heating will produce MU Capes of 500-800 J/kg in
a region that will have sufficient shear to allow for storm
organization and a low end severe weather threat with the main
concerns damaging wind gusts and hail through 22Z.

After the surface low departs, wrap around low level moisture
will bring lower cloud cover into ENC as winds become more
northerly after midnight. Cooler air will overspread the area
behind the front with lows in the mid upper 40s inland to low
50s beaches.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM Friday...Much cooler weather is expected Sat as NW
flow circulates a cooler airmass into the Carolinas. The big
question is whether a cold core upper low traversing the area
will be able to trigger a few showers during peak heating due to
the latent instability present. Most of the models have been
backing off of this idea but will keep a slight chance PoP and
lean into conceptual models which support some shallow
convection developing. With lower-than-average freezing levels
cannot rule out some periods of small hail as well. Any coverage
will be limited. Expecting a good deal of low clouds in the
morning through early afternoon which will help to keep temps in
check with highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

Ridging builds back in to kick off the new week with
temperatures rebounding. A fast moving and strong cold front
push across the eastern CONUS Tuesday, although whether it
brings any precipitation remains a question. Cooler high
pressure builds back in behind the boundary as upper troughing
once again settles in over the eastern CONUS.

Sunday through Thursday...The upper low will be offshore by
Sunday with upper ridging and sfc high pressure building in from
the southwest, keeping conditions dry but steadily warmer
through Tuesday. Mix of deterministic and ensemble guidance
continues to point to a frontal passage across the Carolinas
around Tuesday. Trends over the past couple of runs have shifted
the forecast towards a stronger frontal boundary and a modest
increase in rain chances, although the 50% percentile of
forecast QPF among all ensemble members remains 0.00". Did add a
slight chance PoP out of respect to a persistent minority of
wetter guidance.

High pressure builds in back behind the front ushering in another
shot of slightly below-average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Saturday/...
As of 320 PM Friday...Expecting primarily VFR conditions
outside late day scattered showers and thunderstorms, then late
this evening and overnight wrap around moisture in the form of
extensive low clouds will develop southward across eastern NC.
Expect MVFR ceilings to develop after midnight and continue into
Sat afternoon as a cold upper low crosses the region.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Ridging and high pressure returns on
Sunday, ushering in predominantly VFR conditions into early Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 320 PM Friday...Have issued a MWS valid until 8 PM for
the central waters to account for a period of winds gusting to
25 kt and seas building to 6 ft over the outer waters into early
this evening.

Low pressure currently located across northeast NC will move
northeast away from the area and swing a cold front through the
waters by late this evening. Ahead of the front W to SW winds
will be 10-20 kt with winds to 25 kt over the portions of the
central waters. Seas were 4 to 5 ft and up to 6 ft over the
outer central waters. Winds shift to the NW around 15 kt all
waters late this evening behind the front with seas subsiding to
2-4 ft late. Saturday winds start out NW 10-15 kt then veer to
the N and increase to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft
build to 3-5 ft.


LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Marine conditions are forecast to
deteriorate late Sat and especially Sat night as a
northerly surge of wind develops by evening and continues
through Sunday. Forecast winds were increased again this
morning, and now show explicit SCA conditions for all offshore
waters and most of the inland sounds. Confidence is lower for
inland rivers.

Marine conditions improve Sun PM into Monday as high pressure builds
back over the waters, but winds will increase again out of the
southwest late Mon into Tuesday with another approaching front.
Guidance has trended stronger with the front and now show SCA
conditions over offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound ahead of this
boundary. Ensemble guidance points to a 10-20% chance of Gales ahead
of the front, confined over outer offshore waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/MS