New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS62 KMHX 191852
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
252 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into Eastern NC through the weekend with
dangerous heat and humidity. A wavy frontal boundary will bring
scattered to numerous thunderstorms into early next week. The
front will push through the area Monday, with high pressure
ridging in from the north through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
   localized flash flooding possible this afternoon into this
   evening.

 - Dangerous heat to impact the area today, with heat index
   values 105-110 degrees. Heat Advisory continues everywhere.

Sweltering heat and humidity continues this afternoon with air
temps in the mid to upper 90s inland, and upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast. Dewpoints have mixed out a bit inland, but
remain over 80 degrees along the coast. This has resulted in
widespread heat indices of 105 to 110, with some locations
eclipsing 110. Conditions could become even more oppressive over
the next few hours before temps begin to decline towards sunset.

Rainfall expectations remain on track, though some drier than
expected air along and south of US 70 is keeping any sea breeze
activity from forming. Farther north, convection is developing,
and is expected to become widespread later this afternoon and
evening along and north of US 264 in the vicinity of a couple
diffuse boundaries. A conditional severe risk will develop here
as well, owing to the threat of wet microbursts, but the major
limiting factor will be storm organization and sustainability
with weak shear present. Additionally, localized areas of flash
flooding are possible, especially areas that received several
inches of rain yesterday. Keeping this threat in check will be
the swampy geography of areas east of US 17.

Areas of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain will persist in
the vicinity of the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula through this
evening and potentially through midnight. A low end severe and
flash flooding threat will persist here as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory extended through tomorrow evening (Sun 8pm) for
  heat indices reaching 105-110.

- Drier conditions expected with only isolated to scattered
  thunderstorm chances

Extreme heat and humidity continues Sunday with highs again
expected to reach the mid to upper 90s inland, and upper 80s to
low 90s along the coast. Oppressive humidity will remain in
place, and heat indices will climb to 105-110 degrees by late
morning through early tomorrow evening. Drier air in the mid and
upper levels tomorrow will help limit convective coverage,
despite high surface instability. Rain chances will be mostly
confined to the sea breeze convergence areas in the vicinity of
US 17.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Highest rain chances Monday

- Isolated diurnal storms possible Tuesday through Thursday

Monday:
Monday morning, cold front moves through the region, with
northerly flow and drier dewpoints behind it. This front should be
located along the southern half of the CWA Monday, with convection
really kicking off late morning/early afternoon along it. This makes
PoPs and QPF highest south of hwy 264. Should this cold front slow
down or stall over the region, flash flooding would be a concern. 20-
30kts of deep layer shear could also result in strong to severe
tstorms, with damaging wind the primary threat.

Tuesday-Saturday:
Tuesday through Thursday subsidence aloft dries up
the mid and upper levels, bringing PoPs down as storm coverage along
boundaries is expected to be isolated and the sea breeze is pinned
to the coast. Dewpoints also drop to the upper 60s with
north/northeast flow, leading to a very pleasant couple of days over
ENC next week. Friday there is a lot of uncertainty in rain chances,
as it will be dependent on how the former back door cold front
stalls to our south and behaves through the week. Some long term
ensemble members try to form a weak low from this stalled boundary
that then heads towards the SE coast. However, at this point probs
of the low forming are less than 20%, but will be worth monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Outside of convection this afternoon and early
tonight, predominately VFR conditions expected through tomorrow.
Widespread areas of convection are possible this afternoon
through around midnight, generally along and north of US 264,
and areas of sub-VFR conditions will be possible here,
including KPGV. By early tomorrow morning, mostly dry conditions
are expected, and only isolated to widely scattered storms are
expected tomorrow. An increase in drier air in the lower and
mid levels will likely keep any low stratus from forming, and
conditions should remain at least somewhat mixed to keep fog at
bay.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, bringing with it reduced vis and
cigs within thunderstorms. T;storms could also bring frequent
lightning, torrential downpours, and gusty winds. There could
be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well with light to
calm winds and moist low levels Monday morning, exacerbated by
any areas that see meaningful rainfall during the daytime.
Highest rain chances in the long term are Monday as a back door
cold front moves through bringing with it a wind shift from SW
to N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

Key Messages:

- Marginal Small Craft conditions may develop across portions of
  the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound tomorrow afternoon and
  night.

Winds today continue out of the SSW at 10-15 kts with gusts
approaching 20 kts. Winds will increase to 15-20 kts sometime
this evening through the rest of tonight. Tomorrow, SW winds of
15-20 kts will continue, but as the thermal gradient increases
through the day, winds will increase to near 20 kts with gusts
to 25 kts possible. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for
portions of the coastal waters and/or the Pamlico Sound if
confidence increases that this will last several hours. Seas
will be 2-4 ft through tonight, and then increase to 3-5 ft
tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Monday morning a back door cold front
moves through, bringing behind it north/northeast winds 10-20kt
and showers/tstorms. As hi-res guidance is becoming available,
there is potential for brief gusty winds greater than 25 kts to
follow behind the back door cold front. This will be worth
monitoring over the next couple days. N/NE flow continues
through Tuesday before becoming more E Wednesday and veering to
become S/SW by Friday. Seas 2-4 ft expected through Wednesday,
with more uncertainty than normal beyond Wednesday as we will
have to see how the stalled boundary to our south responds.
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
Monday before we see a drier stretch of weather mid-week with
decreasing rain chances.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ