Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

562
FXUS62 KGSP 111847
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through this evening.
Dry conditions return this weekend and continue into Monday. Showers
will be possible across the mountains Monday night as another fast
moving systems passes through the region. Thereafter, dry weather
continues into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday: Anomalous deep upper height/thermal trough will
continue to progress across the region through tonight, with the
axis of the trough expected to be east of our forecast area by 12Z
Saturday. In the interim, steep mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg for much of the
area east of the mountains this afternoon, supporting scattered to
numerous coverage of convection, especially across the Piedmont and
across the TN/NC border areas. Taller cells will continue to produce
plenty of small hail/graupel in light of very low freezing levels
(around 6-7kft). Can`t rule out a stray, marginally large hail
report, but fairly tame instability and lack of robust shear should
continue to limit the threat of severe storms. The sub-cloud layer
is also relatively dry, so taller storms can also be expected to
produce locally gusty winds. Convection will diminish this evening
as instability wanes, although some showers are forecast to linger
in NW flow/upslope regime near the TN/NC border. Temperatures above
~5000 feet are already cold enough for some wintry precip...and
accumulations will be possible at those elevations through tonight
as the event transitions to more of a traditional upslope event.
However, ingredients/thermal profiles will not be conducive to
anything more than minor accums. Min temps are expected to generally
be a category or so below normal.

Dee NNW flow becomes established in the wake of the trough tomorrow,
with much drier, much calmer, and much sunnier weather following.
Max temps will again be 5-10 degrees below normal, while much lower
dewpoints are expected to result in minimum RH of 25-30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday: Deep trough axis should be east of the
CFWA by the start of the forecast period as surface high sets
up shop over the southeastern CONUS Saturday night, leading
to good radiational cooling conditions. As a result, a freeze
watch is likely across the portions of the NC mountains where
the frost/freeze program has begun. Can`t rule out areas of frost
either outside of the mountains, which could also lead to short-fuse
Frost Advisory before Sunday morning. Overnight lows will run ~10
degrees below normal under mostly clear skies. Gradual airmass
modification will take place Sunday as heights recover and upper
ridging begins to build in from the west. Afternoon highs on Sunday
should rebound but remain a few ticks below normal. Surface high
shifts offshore Sunday night, ahead of the next frontal system and
allows for weak southwesterly low-level WAA to filter in across
the CFWA. In this case, overnight lows Sunday should end up at or
slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Friday: Amplified synoptic pattern begins to
unfold during the extended forecast period as an upper low slips
across the Northern Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Monday
into Tuesday. An attendant frontal boundary will push into the
CFWA Monday night into Tuesday, with showers making it to the
mountains, but not much further than the NC/TN border. Monday
is the warmest day with highs in the low to mid 80s east of the
mountains and in the major mountain valleys as WAA maximizes ahead
of the front. The upper trough axis will push east of the area by
midweek as a second shortwave pushes another frontal boundary to
the area by the end of the workweek into next weekend with rain
chances returning. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of
normal following the cold front Tuesday and should remain this
way through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the Terminal Forecast Area this
afternoon. Convection is currently developing upstream of KCLT, and
a tempo for TSRA is warranted there from 19-22Z. Elsewhere, the
greatest TS threat appears to have passed at the upstate SC
terminals, but tempos for TSRA will remain there through 20Z. Weaker
instability will limit the TS potential at KHKY and KAVL, but tempos
for SHRA are carried there until evening. The bulk of convective
activity will shift east of the area or dissipate as the surface
begins to cool this evening. Outside of tempos, VFR is forecast
through the period, except for some potential for up-valley MVFR
cigs at KAVL this evening. Winds will favor a NW direction through
the period, with speeds generally expected to be in the 5-10 kts
range. KAVL will be an exception, as NW winds will likely become
gusty (to around 20 kts) this evening, continuing through the end of
the period.

Outlook: Dry high pressure lingers through Monday. Another cold
front may bring scattered showers and associated restrictions on
Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL