Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS62 KILM 142239
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
639 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through tonight and into tomorrow
morning as the slow moving upper disturbance gradually lifts
northward. Expect a drying trend from Thursday through Saturday
with temperatures climbing 10 to 15 degrees above normal,
yielding widespread daily highs in the 90s away from the
beaches. A weak cold front is slated to pass through late
Saturday with mainly dry weather expected into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The severe threat is lifting away from the ILM forecast area
into eastern NC over the next couple hours. Expect the
remaining convection to weaken along with diminished coverage
with the loss of heating. Could see a few showers toward the
early morning hours Thursday, especially for the Lumberton and
Wilmington areas. Made some tweaks to the gridded forecast given
the areas worked over by convection, and the decreasing PoPs
for tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Small flurry of convective activity is now waning, the
atmosphere possibly convectively overturned enough to preclude
further development. Focus in the very near term then shifts to
the west where a shortwave is touching off scattered storms.
Shear and instability parameters do not vary much across the CWA
(other than the aforementioned convective-induced stability) so
these storms will also offer a small but non-zero threat for
severe winds/hail. Trough axis swings through by 00Z and pair
this with loss of heating for a diminishing of radar returns
(WRF is a bit slower with the shortwave but the loss of heating
should rule according to guidance anyway). A few more showers
will develop overnight generally only warranting the lower end
of chance POPs. This is in response to another, weaker
shortwave. Models in some agreement that NC zones may be
slightly more favored with regard to this activity but this will
like be modulated slightly by convection during the remainder
of the afternoon as outflow boundaries aplenty expected. Later
tonight into Thursday we transition into a WNW flow aloft. The
drying slated for Thursday now looks a bit slower and so a few
showers/storms may linger into the morning or midday hours. The
ridging coming in from the west will push highs into the upper
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Height rises will be ongoing through Thursday night as a mid-
upper ridge axis approaches from the west, then passes overhead
on Friday. In light of the northwesterly flow aloft that will
precede the ridge axis, the potential exists for the remains of
decaying convection to slide into our area. However, subsidence
and dry mid-level air should tend to suppress this activity
enough that PoPs are held below mentionable values over Thursday
night into Friday as only isolated showers or sprinkles should
survive at the most. Even though lee-side troughing is
anticipated in the Piedmont on Friday, the proximity of the
ridge axis should yield enough subsidence to keep most or all
convection at bay, except perhaps for isolated, short-lived
showers.

Southwesterly low-level flow and building ridging will lead to
above-normal temperatures dominating the period, especially with
850mb temperatures rising into the 20-23C range and convection
suppressed during the day on Friday. After morning lows in the
upper 60s to around 70F on Friday, high temps are forecast to
reach the low-mid 90s (cooler near the coast), which will come
close to record highs. The one limiting factor will be dense
high cloud cover, which will prevent the strongest heating from
taking place.

Over Friday night, a vertically stacked low pressure area
shifting into the upper Great Lakes region and associated
troughing south of this low will send a cold front towards the
region and suppress the ridging. Guidance suggests precip
associated with this front should only be reaching the
Appalachians by the end of the night, so dry weather is
forecast with lows in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-upper troughing is progged to only glance the area as the
aforementioned vertically-stacked low tracks across the Great
Lakes and into New England over the weekend. Its associated
cold front is still expected to settle into the area from the
north late Saturday or Saturday night before stalling overhead
or just to the south on Sunday, with winds veering to westerly
behind it. With 850mb temps in the 20-23C range, another hot day
is expected on Saturday ahead of this front, with highs mainly in
the low 90s, once again modulated by the thickness of high
cloud cover. Although environmental parameters would support a
severe weather threat on Saturday with moderate instability and
sufficient effective shear, a lingering subsidence inversion
should hold through the day until the cold front draws near,
limiting or preventing any attempts at convective initiation.
However, this should be re-evaluated to see if the subsidence
inversion ends up weaker in future updates.

With the front settling through on Saturday night, a tightened
pressure gradient is expected to keep steady west winds going
through the night, resulting in overnight lows staying in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Behind the front, a breath of cooler and
drier air is anticipated, knocking high and low temps down a few
degrees for Sunday and Sunday night.

The first half of next week carries lower confidence as the
pattern evolves with ridging building up out of the Gulf,
setting up northwesterly flow aloft once again. This will lift
the stalled front back northward but may keep it right over the
forecast area, supporting periodic unsettled weather as
shortwaves dive southeastward along the front. The evolution of
a potent shortwave which may close off over the Plains further
complicates where this front ends up by the middle of next week.
Thus, the potential exists for notable changes to the forecast
as the pattern evolution becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convective coverage will continue to diminish this evening,
with residual SHRA for KLBT/KILM and TSRA for KMYR. Could see
some SHRA overnight, especially for KLBT/KILM, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.

Extended Outlook...Improving conditions are expected Thursday
and Friday, with drier air bringing a return to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...
Pretty unchanging conditions with no frontal passage or bit
reorientation of offshore high-which is weak and displaced east
of its most classical position. Swell energy will continue to
abate leaving mostly just a 6 second wind wave by the end of the
period.

Thursday night through Monday...
Southwesterly winds will dominate through much of the period
ahead of a weakening cold front with speeds initially around
15-20 kts subsiding through Thursday night to around 10-15 kts.
Sea-breeze-induced strengthening of the nearshore flow can be
expected each day, although gusts should stay below 25 kts. An
approaching cold front will cause winds to veer to westerly over
Saturday night and vary around westerly through the rest of the
period as the front stalls just south of, or across, the
waters. Wave heights generally stay in the 2-4 ft range before
subsiding late in the period as the flow turns offshore and
weakens. South-southwesterly wind waves will dominate the wave
spectrum while a persistent 1-2 ft ESErly swell with a period
around 8 sec will continue to be present.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
the Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Leftover SE-S 7 to 9
second period swell will continue to affect the area beaches
resulting with 2 to 4 foot surf conditions and a high rip
current risk threat. The 3 to 5 hour window centered around low
tide will be the time most susceptible for rip current activity.
Low tide this afternoon will occur around 300 pm EDT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records may be challenged on Friday and
Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of
a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as
follows:

For Friday, May 16 and Saturday, May 17th:
Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915) and 92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962) and 96F (1941)
Florence, SC: 93F (2022) and 93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941) and 92F (1941)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106- 108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MBB/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
CLIMATE...ABW