Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS62 KMHX 221130
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
630 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves overhead today with moderating conditions
expected. High pressure then slides offshore tomorrow and into
early next week with a warming trend continuing. A cold front
will cross the area later Thursday with temperatures returning
back to near normal behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 AM Sat...High pressure will move overhead today, with
below normal but moderating conditions anticipated. Skies will
initially be clear, but a passing upper level wave will produce
areas of thick high based cirrus in the afternoon, leading to
overcast conditions. Low level thicknesses support temperatures
rising into the upper 40s to around 50 for most of Eastern NC,
while a melting snowpack may keep areas north of US 264 a couple
of degrees cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 7 AM Sat...As high pressure shifts offshore tonight, a
weakness will develop between it and another area of high
pressure over the Tennessee Valley. This weakness, an inverted
coastal trough will likely pass by harmlessly across the
nearshore coastal waters overnight. Forecast trends continue to
indicate that any showers from this feature will remain
offshore.

Far removed from the trough inland, good radiational conditions
will eventually develop once skies clear this evening. Expect
lows to reach the low to mid 20s inland, and the 30s along the
coast, with the coldest temps likely over areas that retain a
snowpack (this may not be an extensive area after melting
today).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Mainly dry weather expected through midweek
as high pres settles into the Deep South. This will bring a
warming trend, with temps near normal on Sunday, then above
normal Mon through Wed. Cold front passes with shower chances on
Thursday, then temps back to near climo behind it.

Sunday...Sprawling high pressure will build over the Eastern US
through this weekend. The cold will moderate by Sunday with
temps returning back to near climo, in the 50s, for all areas.
With the dry airmass in place and light/calm winds at night,
readings will still be chilly, in the 20s away from the beaches,
and 30s on the beaches.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will settle into the
Deep South, while hts/thicknesses rise to anomalous levels. This
will be abnormally warm weather for ENC, with highs each day in
the 60s (55-60 for the immediate beachfront). Dry weather will
also persist with the high dominating. A weak coastal low is
expected to remain well offshore, though may spin a few clouds
into the OBX zones.

Thursday...A cold front is forecast to cross the area. This
will bring a chance for showers to the area but again most of
the guidance is indicating only light amounts of rainfall which
will do little to ease the drought conditions. Pops remain in
the 30-40% range Thu afternoon and evening. Highs will cont in
the 60s.

Friday...In the wake of the cold front, temps will cool back
down, but only to near climo readings, which for late Feb are in
the 55-62 degree range. Dry conditions will once again dominate
late week and into the weekend, building on the drought
conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period with dry high pressure over the region. Clear skies and
calm winds will continue the rest of the night. High based
clouds will move over the area this afternoon, with winds
remaining very light.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Expecting mainly VFR through Wed with high
pres dominating. Winds will be light through mid week. A cold
front passes through on Thu bringing potential for TEMPO sub-
VFR, though widespread heavy rain does not appear likely.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...
As of 7 AM Sat...High pressure will move overhead today keeping
winds light. As a result, great boating conditions are expected
through tonight. Winds will steadily weaken out of the north
this morning, and then become light and variable the rest of the
day. By tonight, winds will turn to the west and northwest at
5-10 kts. 3-5 ft seas will linger this morning, but then seas
will subside to 2-4 ft through tonight.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Excellent boating conditions expected through
mid week as high pres will reside just south of the region,
bringing light swrly winds and seas in the 2-3 ft range.
Thursday, swrly winds may inc to SCA levels over the Gulf
Stream waters ahead of a cold front that will pass through Thu
night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/SGK
MARINE...TL/SGK