Holly Springs, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

688
FXUS62 KRAH 111804
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move slowly across NC and VA through early
Saturday. Canadian high pressure will then build across and offshore
the Middle and South Atlantic later Saturday through the rest of the
weekend, ahead of a warm front that will move across the region on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 204 PM Friday...

Observations show the 700 mb low over the northwest Piedmont, with
the surface low off the northern Coastal Plain. These two features
are quite evident on satellite imagery and regional/local radar. The
last few runs of the HRRR have done a good job the latest trends
seen on radar, with most convection along the Triangle and northern
Sandhills, and stratiform rain over the Triad. This activity should
continue to shift east and southeast into the late afternoon to
early evening, with activity shifting east of the Coastal Plain by
early evening. Another area we are watching is a batch of showers
and scattered storms currently west and southwest of Charlotte. All
of this activity should continue to track ESE into the late
afternoon and early evening hours across the southern Piedmont and
Sandhills to southern Coastal Plain tied to the 700 mb circulation.
This activity, along with the current storms on radar moving into
the Coastal Plain, will likely have the best chance to produce large
hail. These areas may feed on some 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE in the
warm sector and combine with the deep-layer shear in place. The
severe threat should diminish rather abruptly after 6-8 pm with loss
of heating and as a cold front starts to sweep through from the WNW
as the surface low tracks offshore of VA overnight.

Temperatures behind the front tonight will drop into the low 40s NW
to upper 40s SE. Even though rain chances should diminish by late
this evening, wrap around low-level moisture will favor ongoing low
stratus that will be slow to clear out. Cannot rule out some
isolated drizzle as well. Some fog may develop over the Triad in the
early overnight period as this area has remained soggy and cloudy
most of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

As the surface low shifts off the DELMARVA coast early Saturday
morning, a few wrap around isolated showers could be possible in the
afternoon. All the precip will dissipate by sunset as surface high
pressure builds in from the TN valley. Temperatures during the day
will range from the upper 50s north to low/mid 60s  elsewhere. Lows
will range from upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Sunday and Monday will be dry as upper level ridge builds across the
Mid-Atlantic region. Northwest flow on Sunday will result in well
below normal temperatures with highs in the mid 60s, and a few spots
in the south reaching the low 70s. Clear skies Monday, along with
southwesterly flow will promote more near normal temps with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 60s.

By Tuesday another upper level trough will be moving across the MS
valley and into the Mid-Atlantic bringing another chance of precip.
Models have continued to trend on the dry side as the front moves
across the region. But with good PW values ranging from 1-1.5 inches
cant rule out some scattered showers in the afternoon with daytime
heating. Best chance for precip for now will be along and east of
the US1 corridor with light accumulation amounts. Will have to keep
an eye on the model trends with this system over the next few days.
After the front exits a back door cold front will reinforce cooler
air across the region with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesday
and Thursday, and lows in the 40s to 50s.

Late Thursday through Friday models are showing another trough move
across the region. Most long range models are showing a chance for
showers and storms late Thursday through Friday. Temperatures will
largely depend on the timing of the frontal passage but highs will
be in the 70s with lows in the 40s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 204 PM Friday...

A mixture of IFR to MVFR conditions are expected to start the TAF
period. Areas of showers with embedded storms will be moving across
the northern terminals over the next 4-6 hrs. Based on observational
trends and model guidance, the highest confidence on TSRA is at RDU
and RWI, with a secondary threat at FAY, roughly between 18z and
02z, slowest to move out at FAY. It is possible storms may reach FAY
earlier than the latest TAF, but confidence was too low to mention
earlier. We removed the mention of hail in the TAF with less
confidence on overall coverage of large hail, but is certainly
possible. Once the showers and embedded storms move out, lingering
MVFR stratus is expected to linger, slowly clearing out from west to
east, though RWI is likely to remain sub-VFR through the period.
There is a low-end chance that fog could develop at GSO/INT after
03z and prior to NW winds kicking in, given persistent low clouds
and stratiform rain. We introduced a TEMPO for IFR VIS for this but
confidence was too low to include fog at this time. Otherwise,
expect MVFR CIGs early Sat, especially across the eastern sites into
early Sat afternoon.

Outlook: MVFR conditions will gradually become VFR later on Sat
afternoon. VFR should prevail through the period, though gusty winds
of 25-35 kt are possible Mon and Tue along/ahead of a cold frontal
passage. A few showers are possible as well with the front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Kren