Holly Springs, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

801
FXUS62 KRAH 252334
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
734 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered highs today again in the CAD resume. Heavy rain shifts
  offshore.

* Tempered highs on Sunday with the slow clearing and wet
  conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

1) Showers are tapering to areas of drizzle/mist. Another cool and
cloudy afternoon. A mainly dry evening, but remaining cloudy.
Becoming partly cloudy Sunday, moderating temperatures.

2) A more typical late July weather pattern returns for much of the
work week. A cold frontal passage Tuesday night brings the best
chance of rain, with the potential for a few strong to severe
storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers are tapering to areas of drizzle/mist.
Another cool and cloudy afternoon. Stratus again expected tonight.
Becoming partly cloudy with moderating temperatures Sunday.

The latest radar trends indicate showers/storms over the SE part of
NC and also offshore. Light showers remain over central NC with a
low overcast. Temperatures were still in the 65-70 range over most
of the region at early afternoon after a morning of additional
locally heavy rainfall. Raleigh`s rainfall was quickly nearing 10
inches for July after morning downpours.

Satellite data indicated some clearing over the Blue Ridge in NW NC
and SW VA. However, a light NE flow continued below 2k feet and this
will likely persist through the afternoon. Some partial clearing
will be possible in the lee of the mountains and in the SE. However,
the stratus is expected to lower again tonight with some areas of
fog expected. Afternoon highs today were lowered by 5+ degrees into
the lower to mid 70s with the CAD.

The latest CAMS suggest scattered showers/storms from SE KY
southeast into the central/southern mountains of NC late tonight
with an upper level disturbance. Most, if not all the showers should
remain to our west.

Also, stratus could lower and become areas of dense fog overnight.
More on this in the next update.

Skies will become partly cloudy on Sunday after considerable morning
cloudiness. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the afternoon.
Highs are expected to be lower than most guidance with the slow late
morning partial clearing and wet conditions. Expect mostly lower to
mid 80s instead of upper 80s as guidance suggests.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A more typical late July weather pattern returns
for much of the work week. A cold frontal passage Tuesday night
brings the best chance of rain, with the potential for a few strong
to severe storms.

As the front continues to move further southward and high pressure
moves into the Mid-Atlantic, a more typical summertime pattern will
return to central NC by Monday. Maximum temperatures each day during
the work week should generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with Tuesday being the warmest day, potentially hitting the mid 90s.
Lows each morning will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s.

The best chance of rain will be from a weak cold front moving
through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the front,
a band of showers and thunderstorms should move through the region.
Moderate instability along with 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear could
support a few organized storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. However, a later frontal passage may allow for a limited
severe risk as the rain may occur after the peak of heating and
therefore instability in the region. Details should come into better
agreement as we get closer and in the range of the higher resolution
models. Otherwise, a few diurnally induced showers and thunderstorms
may be possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 734 PM Saturday...

Current conditions show stratus continues to remain over much of
central NC. However, some clearing due to the low-level WNW flow has
pushed east to bring some brief VFR conditions at GSO, INT, and
perhaps for a few hours at RDU. With moist flow further east,
IFR/MVFR stratus is likely to stick around in the immediate near-
term. As moisture persits in the low-levels widespread LIFR stratus
is favored to build in tonight into early Sunday. With some clearing
noted earlier, the potential for fog increases with light winds at
the surface. The HREF and last few runs of the HRRR suggest this fog
potential highest at GSO/INT and RDU, and the least confidence for
fog at FAY. For this reason, opted to introduce a TEMPO for LIFR
visibilities at these terminals. RWI and FAY will likely remain well
in the stratus, but cannot rule out some low visibilities at RWI as
well. LIFR/IFR conditions Sun morning will gradually lift to MVFR
then VFR between 15 and 18z. A disturbance could bring isolated
storms near FAY in the late afternoon or evening, but confidence is
too low at this time to include.

Outlook: A weak mid-level system could bring isolated storms across
the northern terminals late Sun night into early Mon. Isolated
stratus of fog will be possible Mon morning, most favored at RWI. A
better chance of storms is expected Tue night into Wed ahead of a
cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 28: KGSO: 75/2025  KRDU: 77/2023

July 29: KGSO: 75/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Helock
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH