Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

232
FXUS62 KMHX 021853
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger across the coastal
plain today.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend
into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until
further notice. RHs have failed to drop below 40% this afternoon
and winds have stayed just below criteria. Fire weather risk
will be marginal for the next couple of days, and IFD issuance
may still be needed in subsequent forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and warming forecast through the remainder
of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high
anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak
frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach,
ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day
given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit
forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids,
will be later in the week (THU-SAT) as trough approaches from
the west. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC.
Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the
beaches. MinTs generally around 60. A few records could be
threatened through the rest of the week - see the CLIMATE
section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday,
moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday.
Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with
isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. QPF amounts
are trending somewhat lower from the previous forecast but
forcing still appears strong enough to warrant continued
categorical PoPs for the period.

NBM has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the
low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the
front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the
area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and
N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with
highs mostly in the 60s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ENC remains in a stagnant weather pattern with high pressure
offshore and the primary storm track remaining well to the west
and north of the area. Weak instability and moisture will be
enough for some afternoon cumulus clouds, but no CIGs are
anticipated over the next 24 hours. South winds may occasionally
gust up to 20kt during the daylight hours today and Friday, but
sustained, and frequent, gusts to 20kt are not expected.
Shallow moisture and relatively light winds may support a risk
of sub VFR VIS in BR/MIFG late tonight or early Friday morning.
However, widespread impactful reductions to VIS are not
anticipated.

Outlook: This same weather pattern will hold through Saturday,
then it will begin to change on Sunday as a cold front moves
through. That front will bring a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-
VFR conditions. Additionally, there will be a risk of gusty
winds of 20- 25kt in advance of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show S to SW winds generally around 5-10 with seas
2-4 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the
first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly
winds in place through the period.

Outlook (Saturday into Tuesday): SSW winds will increase through
the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. FROPA
is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of
SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. SCA
conditions could begin as early as Saturday night. A minority of
guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%), although
this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Front will
be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop
behind the front and continue through mid next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/2 (today)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/2014   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   77/1986   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      88/1974   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   78/1953   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1974   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    90/1978   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/3 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1963   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   79/1974   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   81/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1967   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1934   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1945   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1963   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/MS