Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

125
FXUS62 KMHX 260732
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this
front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week.
By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold
front approaching by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail.

As of 3 AM Sat...Warm and humid conditions will continue early
this morning with moderate southerly flow and areas of mid and
high clouds keeping temperatures form dropping much. Expect
temps to hold steady in the mid to upper 60s through sunrise.

Today, ahead of a cold front advancing in from the northwest,
we`ll have high pressure offshore with a strong gradient
persisting. The mesoscale features at play today have become
clearer, and this will all begin with an area of dying
convection, and associated MCV, moving into ENC from WNC/upstate
SC this morning. Clouds and any remaining stratiform rain from
this feature will move into the area by late morning, and though
this will curtail heating slightly, it will also serve to
provide increased forcing for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, an active sea breeze
will provide increased convergence for the development of
convection, and these two together will bring the chances for
rain to about 40-60% this afternoon. The chances of severe
weather from this activity will be low...limited by the lack of
deep layer shear...but still non-zero. (severe weather
discussion continued below)

Temperatures will once again reach the upper 70s to low 80s by
early afternoon, with additional heating dependent on cloud
cover and convective coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail.

As of 3 AM Sat...By this evening, increasing deep layer shear
and forcing from the advancing cold front should allow for
convective activity to become more organized. Additionally,
increasing lapse rates will allow for instability to increase
this evening non-diurnally, which will further aid in
strengthening convection. High res guidance continues to
indicate at least a broken line of thunderstorms will form and
move SE across ENC tonight, and with these storms there will a
risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Convection will push off the NC coast early tomorrow morning
with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front.
Temperatures will remain in the low 70s or upper 60s ahead of
the front, and will then drop rapidly into the 50s behind it.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

Sunday...Cooler high pressure will build in from the north and west
on Sunday bringing a dry but relatively cooler day overall with high
temps getting into the mid to upper 60s along the OBX and low to mid
70s inland. Lows Sun night get down into the upper 40s inland
and into the 50s along the OBX and coast. Could see some
overcast skies to start the morning especially along the coast
as shower activity offshore will push further out to sea and
away from the region resulting in partly cloudy to clear skies
across ENC by the afternoon.

Monday through the end of the week...Both upper and surface ridging
will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and gradually push
E`wards through the week. This will generally keep things dry for
the most part though about midweek, though an isolated afternoon sea
breeze shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. We do begin to
get into a slightly more unsettled pattern from about midweek and
beyond. A weak cold front approaches ENC from the north on Wed as an
upper trough passes by to the north. As this occurs, PoP`s will
be on the increase especially along our northern zones which
could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area
Wed afternoon and evening, and again Thurs afternoon and
evening. Next significant front looks to impact the area this
weekend, potentially as early as Friday as a deeper upper
trough pushes across the region. This will once again bring a
threat for showers and storms to the area. Temps from Monday
onwards will steadily increase giving ENC more of a summer time
feel by midweek. Highs start out in the low to mid 70s inland
and 60s across the OBX on Mon and then increase to the mid to
upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX by midweek and
beyond. Lows will also be on the increase getting into the 60s
across ENC by midweek as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 3 AM Sat...VFR conditions should prevail this morning and
through tonight, though a cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon through early tonight. Rain
and associated low level stratus will produce at least some
risk of temporary restrictions to sub-VFR levels.

Mostly high and mid level clouds will persist over the area
early this morning, but guidance is indicating that some low
level clouds could develop across the northern coastal plain
counties, including KPGV, briefly around sunrise which could
bring some brief MVFR ceilings. A round of weak convection is
expected late this morning and into the early afternoon which
will bring increased rain chances and likely bring ceilings to
4000-6000 ft. A better organized line of thunderstorms is
expected to form early this evening and dive south across ENC
early tonight. These storms will pose a risk for gusty winds and
small hail, and could also bring sub-VFR conditions to all
terminals as they move through. Improving conditions behind this
line of convection after midnight as cooler and drier air move
in, and VFR conditions are expected the rest of the early
tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

High pressure builds in behind the departing front Sunday eventually
pushing offshore by Wednesday allowing for primarily VFR conditions
across ENC into midweek. Could see some sub-VFR conditions Wed
afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the north and
increases precip chances.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Small craft conditions will develop shortly
across much of the coastal waters in the strengthening
southerly flow ahead of a cold front. Then, behind the front
late tonight, a stronger surge of NW winds will keep Small craft
conditions going into Sunday afternoon.

Winds this morning will increase to SW 15-20 kts with gusts to
25 kts after sunrise, and then strengthen further with diurnal
heating this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. This
evening winds will subside slightly, and there may even be a
lull with winds below 20 kts right before the cold front moves
through after midnight. Immediately behind the front, winds
will surge to 20-30 kts with gusts approaching Gale Force by
early tomorrow morning. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft today, but
will increase tonight to 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Small Craft conditions possible Sunday

No significant changes to the long term forecast as post frontal
Nrly surge works down the coast Sunday morning as high pressure
builds back in behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt
primarily across the Croatan/Roanoke and Pamlico Sounds, and across
the Coastal waters with 4-6 ft seas found across the Coastal Waters
as well. Slightly lighter winds will be found along all other
waters Sun morning. As high pressure continues to quickly build
in from the north and west, winds should quickly ease by the
afternoon down to 5-10 kts and seas will fall to 3-5 ft thus
ending any SCA by about mid afternoon Sun. Beyond this, with
high pressure in control of the weather through about midweek,
expect benign boating conditions with 5-10 kt N`rly winds
gradually shifting to an east, southeast, and then southerly
direction by Tue evening. Seas will lower as well down to 2-4 ft
by Tue. On Wed with the approach of a cold front winds may
briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts with seas remaining around
2-4 ft. There will also be an increase in precip chances on Wed
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ135-150-152-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF