Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS62 KMHX 021947
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
347 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Raised a Gale Warning for most of the coastal waters and the
Pamlico Sound.

Issued a High Surf Advisory for the beaches north of Cape
Hatteras through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and breezy through tonight with gradually improving
conditions Wednesday into Thursday with a coastal low off the
coast.

2) Hotter conditions return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Upper level trough digging across the Mid-
Atlantic states will develop into the cut-off low just off the
coast late tonight then slowly pull away from the area Thursday
and Friday. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure just east of Cape
Hatteras will continue to gradually deepen this afternoon with
the approach of the upper trough, then will lift to the NE as
the upper low pulls away from the area. Tight pressure gradients
between the deepening low and high pressure building in from the
north is bringing gusty N to NE wind gusts around 30-40 mph
across the region this afternoon, strongest along the OBX. The
winds will remain elevated through this afternoon, then will
gradually diminish this evening and overnight. Winds are out
performing model guidance and in turn, the seas have build
higher than guidance bringing large surf along the beaches north
of Cape Hatteras and have issued a high surf advisory for this
area through tonight.

A much drier and cooler airmass building into the area is
bringing much below normal temps through tonight with lows in
the mid to upper 40s across inland areas tonight and 50s closer
to the coast. A gradual warming trend Wednesday and Thursday
with temps near normal with highs in the mid 80s on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As we get into the end of the week, low
offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high
pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will
bring steady SW`rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and
warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s
inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more
summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance suggests
there is room for forecast highs to trend higher (probability of
a Moderate or higher HeatRisk is already 60-80%+ on
Saturday/Sunday), so those sensitive to heat issues are
encouraged to keep an eye on trends over the next few days. Will
note some guidance has picked up on a frontal passage occuring
on Mon which would result in temps cooling and increased precip
chances early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as cool and
dry high pressure builds into the region from the north. Tight
pressure gradients between the high and developing low pressure
off the coast is bringing gusts around 20-30 kt across rtes this
afternoon. The gusts are expected to diminish fairly quickly
this evening across inland areas with light winds overnight. The
airmass will be too dry for fog concerns tonight. VFR conditions
continue Wednesday with sct afternoon fair weather cumulus and
N to NE winds gusting around 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure continue to build into the area through
mid week, then eventually shift offshore with winds becoming
S`rly by late Thursday and into Friday and remain light into
this weekend. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong N to NE winds across the waters this afternoon as
pressure gradients have been tightening between high pressure
building in from the north and low pressure east of Cape
Hatteras. Buoys have been reporting N to NE winds around 25-35
kt with gusts to around 40 kt this afternoon, which is stronger
than most guidance has been suggesting. As such, have raised a
Gale Warning for much of the coastal waters and the Pamlico
Sound this afternoon through much of the evening. Winds will
begin to diminish this evening and have the Gale Warning
expiring at 11 pm. Buoys are reporting seas around 6-10 ft
across the near shore waters while wave guidance is forecasting
10-15 ft seas across the 20-60 nm zones, highest east of
Hatteras Island.

Wind and seas will continue to diminish Wednesday into Thursday
and expect conditions to drop below SCA criteria for all waters
by late Thursday.

Outlook: A return to more typical warm-season patterns late in
the week with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges
in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal
gradients.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     136-230-231.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-152-154-
     156-158-180-182-184-186-188.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF