Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

242
FXUS62 KMHX 180549
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1249 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to shift offshore today with
warming temperatures. A strong cold front will move through
tonight with high pressure for the end of the week into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 PM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered
over the SE US. The high will cont to shift offshore tonight as
cold front moves through the Mid-West...while mid and high
clouds cont to stream in from the west. Cont warming trend as
tonight`s lows will be quite a bit warmer than the last few
mornings, with lows expected in the 30s inland, with 40s on the
beaches. Low probability for patchy inland fog development
overnight as low level moisture increases combined with calm
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wed...Cont good shift to shift continuity on
rain moving into ENC rapidly from W to E Thu evening. Cont to
fcst some chc pops Thu afternoon as a couple showers may move
during the afternoon...with best chances along the immediate
coast. Overnight categorical pops of 90-100% on track with
moderate to occ heavy rain albeit brief in nature, as bulk of
rain sweeps offshore by sunrise Fri. Thunder probabilities cont
only 10-20% for the bulk of ENC, but a localized higher chance
exists for areas from Cape Lookout to Hatteras, as vcnty of Gulf
Stream on strong srly flow may advect some offshore instability
onto the OBX. Rest of the FA will be protected by very chilly
waters on the sounds and nearshore shelf waters off the Crystal
Coast. Generally expecting around 1" of rain for most areas,
with highest QPF on the OBX/Downeast where some convective
elements may sneak onshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wed...Cold front pushes east by early Fri, with
dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so
temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the
55-65 range and lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Chances for patchy fog early this morning

 - Increasing cloud cover & lowering CIGs through the day
   Thursday, becoming sub-VFR Thursday night

Obs suggesting patchy fog has started to form in Carteret/Craven
Co and mainland Dare Co as of 1240AM. Patchy fog is expected to
spread northward through the next couple hours, becoming most
widespread and impactful between the Pamlico River and Albemarle
Sound. There is a good chance of seeing MVFR visibilities for
TAF sites this morning, but IFR potential is a bit more murky.
Should we see IFR, PGV and ISO would have the best chance after
10Z given the lesser cloud cover present there. By 13Z
visibilities should be improving, leading to a VFR day Thursday.
Warm front moves through in the afternoon, but probability of
sub- VFR CIGs along this front is low (<20%) so did not include
it in the TAFs. OBX terminals and terminals west of the forecast
area would have higher chances of seeing a brief period of MVFR
CIGs this afternoon along the warm front. Tonight as the
frontal system approaches, CIGs rapidly drop to MVFR then IFR,
and moderate to heavy rainfall moves into the region. In
addition, LLWS spreads over the region tonight with a potent LLJ
overhead.

Outlook: Showers will linger into Friday morning but expect
clearing from W to E with VFR conditions and gusty winds returning
late Friday and remain pred-VFR through the weekend as high
pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 7 PM Wed...

Key Messages:

 - Gale conditions likely for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday
   night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA
   rest of the marine waters. Gale Warning in effect for
   coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City.

Through tonight...Latest obs show primarily SW-W winds 5-15 kt
with seas 2-4 ft. Winds have been a bit higher across the outer
portions of the central waters near the Gulf Stream this
afternoon but have begun to decrease as gradients loosen and
have allowed the SCA from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout expire at
6 pm. May see an occasional gust near 25 kt for the next couple
of hours. Winds diminish to 10 kt or less overnight.

Thursday into Friday...Cold front approaches on Thu with srly
gradient inc to 10-20 kt. Thu night flow inc further ahead of
strong front approaching, with srly winds of 25-35 gusting 35-40
kt along the Gulf Stream, though remaining 15-25 kt with ocnl
higher gusts elsewhere as shallow but stout marine inversion in
place with recent arctic outbreak. With the gales developing
Thu night, seas quickly build to 6-12+ ft and peak during the
late night hours. Winds turn wrly to nwrly on Friday behind the
cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 G 30 kt range
before diminishing prior to the weekend. Upgraded to Gale
Warnings for the central and southern waters, and SCAs for the
sounds and northern waters.

Saturday through Sunday...Pleasant boating conditions look to be
in place for the weekend with high pres overhead on Sat leading
to light/vrb winds. The high passes offshore Sat night into Sun
with return swrly flow inc on Sunday into the 15-20 kt offshore
waters, 5-15 kt nearshore and the sounds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-
     135>137-150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...CQD/SK