Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

242
FXUS62 KRAH 111904
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Today`s Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe storms has been
  upgraded to a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk across our southern half.

* We`re under a Slight (level 2 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for
  Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM Saturday...

1) A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening, mainly over our southern areas, south and west of the
I-40 corridor.

2) A heat advisory remains in place until 8 PM today for Wayne,
Sampson and Cumberland counties.

3) On Sunday, excessive rainfall and a few strong to severe storms
are possible through the afternoon and into the evening and early
nighttime.

4) Widespread rain is expected Sunday night through Monday night,
with some of the coolest high temperatures in more than a month.

5) Highs in the 90s return by Wednesday, severe weather chances
return by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon through this evening, mainly over our southern areas,
south and west of the I-40 corridor.

A warm and moist air mass is in place across NC, south of a roughly
W-E surface frontal zone well to our N and beneath passing mid level
perturbations and MCVs. The remnant outflow from last night`s
convection over NE TN is currently a focus for showers and storms
from the FAY area curving SW and W across cntrl/W SC. With dewpoints
generally from the mid 60s to mid 70s across our area, ample heating
has pushed temps up into the mid 80s to lower 90s, contributing to
high low level lapse rates and 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, although
mid level lapse rates are somewhat modest, and our effective bulk
shear is only around 20 kts. These latter two factors, along with
the expected departure of the prime DCAPE to our E, will somewhat
limit our risk of organized severe storms, and the strongest storms
look likely to hold to our S across SC. But gusty winds up to 40-60
mph remain possible across our S and SE with the strongest cells
through mid evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A heat advisory remains in place until 8 PM today
for Wayne, Sampson and Cumberland counties.

The heat advisory will continue, as heat index values in these far
SE areas have reached 100F-105F so far, while messy sct-bkn
convective debris clouds and slightly lower dewpoints elsewhere have
kept most temps/RH just under critical thresholds. A brief break in
the intense heat is expected for Sun-Mon, as clouds and rain chances
hold down temps and heat index values (see details below).


KEY MESSAGE 3... On Sunday, excessive rainfall and a few strong to
severe storms are possible through the afternoon and into the
evening and early nighttime.

A weak surface frontal zone will settle southward into NC tonight
and stall out somewhere along the NC/SC border Sun, as the weak mid-
upper low over KY and its shear axis extending across VA into the NW
Atlantic settle slowly to the SSE. Ample moisture will be in place
with PWs rising to ~120% of normal, and the influence of passing
perturbations aloft (perhaps including a remnant MCV from today`s
convection from N AR to W TN) and the frontal presence to serve as a
focus should allow for sct-numerous showers and storms, greatest
across our S half. The 18z RAP shows a warm cloud depth exceeding 4
km Sun, favoring warm rain processes, and several models and
modeling systems suggest a decent chance of locally heavy rain rates
and rainfall, including the HREF`s neighborhood prob of 1"/3 hrs of
70-90+% along and S of a line from INT to GSB, and the REFS`s
depiction of widespread 0.75-1.25" across much of our W and S.
Despite our ongoing dry and drought conditions over the area, high
rainfall rates can still yield flooding, esp in urban areas.
Uncertainty regarding the location of greatest coverage preclude
doing a flood watch at this time, but this will be monitored if the
potential for multiple training and congealing cells increases.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Widespread rain is expected Sunday night through
Monday night, with some of the coolest high temperatures in more
than a month.

A cold front is forecast to move through North Carolina on Sunday,
linger along the South Carolina/Georgia border Sunday night, then
remain nearly stationary over Georgia for a couple of days. While
some instability cannot be ruled out, since North Carolina will be
on the cool side of the boundary, there will be less instability for
the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms. In addition, with high
pressure just off the mid-Atlantic states, northeasterly flow will
bring some cooler air into the region. This certainly doesn`t look
like a true cold-air damming scenario, but with the forecast
temperatures, it may feel like a CAD event is occurring - the
forecast highs for Greensboro and RDU have not occurred since June
2. Regardless of the actual temperature, this will be a welcome
relief to many considering how warm June and the start of July have
been.


KEY MESSAGE 5... Highs in the 90s return by Wednesday, severe
weather chances return by Friday.

Despite the respite from temperatures in the 90s early in the week,
an upper level ridge will begin to build across the central United
States in the middle of the week, pushing east into the end of the
week. The raw GFS seems a bit overdone with temperatures, showing
multiple days in the 100s, while the ECMWF is a bit more reasonable
with highs in the mid 90s. Either way, temperatures will rise above
normal once again, and with increasing humidity, the heat index will
enter the triple digits.

In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has an area from Raleigh
north into DC and northeast into Philadelphia outlooked for the
potential of severe weather on Friday. It is rare for SPC to put an
outlook in our area this many days out, but when they do, it usually
verifies with some amount of severe weather. If this is the case,
Thursday could end up being the hottest day out of the next seven,
with lower temperatures on Friday due to thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will dominate through this evening, although brief
sub-VFR conditions with strong wind gusts are possible at all sites
from mid afternoon until mid evening, namely from ~18z-22z at
INT/GSO, ~20z-01z at RDU/RWI and ~21z-02z at FAY, with the highest
chances of a strong storm at FAY. These conditions are likely to
last for less than 2 hours at any given location. Then after about
03z, we`ll see sct-bkn VFR clouds for a few hours, but MVFR cigs and
vsbys in light fog are expected at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI during the 09z-
13z time frame. VFR conditions should then follow at all sites after
about 14z, although showers/storms may begin to ramp up once again
toward the end of the TAF valid period. Surface winds from the W or
WNW at 8-15 kts gusting to 15-20 kts (outside of storms) will trend
to light NW or light/variable after 02z, lasting through mid morning
Sun, then winds will be from the NNE or NE at 8-12 kts except
staying from the NW at FAY, as a surface front settles southward
into the state.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, the chance of showers and storms will remain
high through Mon, focused each afternoon through mid evening, as the
aforementioned stalled front holds in place over the Carolinas. Late-
night through mid-morning sub-VFR fog/stratus are also possible Sun
and Mon. Rain chances will then dwindle considerably for Tue-Thu
with VFR conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 11: KRDU: 99/1993

July 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887 KFAY: 103/1937

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 11: KGSO: 75/1992 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 77/2024

July 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 78/1992

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ078-
088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Green
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH