Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS62 KRAH 211907
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

1) Shower and storm chances increase Monday late afternoon and
evening ahead of the next cold front. A few strong to severe storms
can`t be ruled out especially north.

2) Current hot spell peaks Mon, with highs in the mid-upper 90s and
heat index values near 100-104F, mainly along and east of Highway 1.
Hot weather possible again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Shower and storm chances increase Monday late
afternoon and evening ahead of the next cold front. A few strong to
severe storms can`t be ruled out especially north.

A vigorous shortwave will approach from the TN Valley on Monday,
moving east across central NC on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile the
associated surface low will move east from IN/OH to the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast on Monday and Monday night, with the trailing cold
front crossing our region early Tuesday morning. As warm moist SW
flow develops ahead of the front, with winds gusting up to 20-25
mph, dew points will increase into the upper-60s to lower-70s, and
PW values will reach around 2 inches (100-125% of normal). Most CAMS
have a band of showers and storms moving across at least northern
parts of the area, likely associated with the prefrontal surface
trough, but there remains some uncertainty on how far south it will
get. POPs generally range from likely across the far north to low
chance in the far south. Timing looks to be a little later in the
day, with most CAMS not bringing in convection until after 20z.
Another round of showers and storms associated with the cold front
can`t be ruled out overnight Monday night, but confidence in it
occurring is much lower as CAMS differ and daytime heating will be
lost. QPF on Monday and Monday night generally ranges from a quarter
to half an inch in the northern Piedmont to only a few hundredths in
the far SE. However, HREF LPMM indicates isolated higher amounts of
1+ inches can`t be ruled out with any storms.

As for the severe threat, there should be enough sunshine for strong
boundary layer heating and steep low-level lapse rates of 9 degrees
C/km or more, possibly even approaching superadiabatic. High-res
guidance depicts moderate instability with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across the region, but forecast model soundings look more like a
"tall skinny" CAPE profile as mid-level lapse rates are weak (5.5-6
degrees C/km). Thus storms may have a difficult time developing deep
updrafts. Mid-level flow isn`t particularly strong either and better
to our north, so during the day, bulk shear looks to be mostly less
than 30 kts. Shear could increase with the shortwave, possibly up to
40 kts in the far north, but this wouldn`t be until late evening and
overnight when we will lose daytime heating and instability. Still,
forecast soundings indicate an "inverted V" profile and DCAPE of
1000-1200 J/kg, and with such steep low-level lapse rates, damaging
straight-line winds could be a threat with any storms that do
develop. Thus SPC has most of central NC in a slight (level 2 of 5)
risk for severe weather, except marginal (level 1 of 5) in the far
south and east. Think the greatest threat will be confined to our
far northern and northwestern counties.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Current hot spell peaks Mon, with highs in the mid-
upper 90s and heat index values near 100-104F, mainly along and east
of Highway 1. Hot weather possible again next weekend.

Steamy SW flow ahead of the slowly approaching cold front Mon is
still expected to push temps up to highs in the mid to upper 90s, as
low level thicknesses rise to around 10 m above normal. Increasing
surface dewpoints will bump up the RH and result in heat index
values peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s, mostly from the
Triangle S and E. The NWS experimental Heat Risk does reach the
Major category (level 3 of 4) in spots around the Triangle down to
the Sandhills and S Coastal Plain, indicating atypically high heat
that could lead to an increased risk of heat illnesses, especially
for vulnerable populations. However, the area covered by this Major
level is slightly lower than in earlier forecasts, which may be due
to tonight`s lows that aren`t that anomalous and will only be a
degree or two above normal. Given these borderline values and
potential for increasing clouds early in the day Mon that could curb
insolation, will not go with a heat advisory at this time, but will
monitor conditions and trends.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the steady SW flow returns and models
show thicknesses creeping back up to around 10 m above normal. Mid
level heights are also projected to be above the 75th percentile,
and with a surface ridge stretched from the northern Gulf across FL
and the Bahamas, the reduced moisture flux may limit cloud cover,
facilitating greater heating. Will continue to monitor for what
could be another multi-day stretch of hot weather. -gih


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will dominate through the next 24 hours across
central NC terminals, within a warm flow out of the SW ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is a chance of MVFR cigs over the
southwest CWA early Mon morning (~08z-13z) which may affect FAY and
perhaps RDU/RWI, but confidence is not high enough to include a cig
here for now, so will maintain a VFR forecast but will monitor.
Otherwise, clouds will be mostly high/thin, and no vsby restrictions
are expected. Surface winds will be light mainly from the S or SW
through sunrise Mon, then increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-
25 kts after 14z.

Looking beyond 18z Monday, as a cold front approaches from the NW,
the chance for showers and storms will increase and persist
especially at INT/GSO/RDU, peaking late Mon afternoon through Mon
evening. A period of sub-VFR conditions with sct heavy downpours and
gusty/shifting winds can be expected in and near any storms. Sub-VFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible early Tue morning, then as this front
slowly moves SSE into the state Tue, another round of showers and
storms will be possible, highest chances across the E and S. Wed may
be mostly dry outside of the far SE, then we should see scattered
late-day storms mainly in the S and W Thu/Fri along with patchy
early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022

June 25: KRDU: 100/1952

June 26: KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024

June 25: KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield