Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS62 KRAH 050800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

1) Areas of fog and very low overcast along and just offshore the
South Atlantic coast will develop/advect inland and across the ern
and (a portion of) the cntl Carolinas each morning through the
weekend.

2) Very warm to near record breaking temperatures will prevail from
Thursday through at least the middle of next week, with highs around
15-20 degrees above normal and lows around 20-25 degrees above
normal. While at least isolated showers can`t be ruled out each day,
the best chance of showers and storms comes on Sunday/Monday and
again on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of fog and very low overcast along and just
offshore the South Atlantic coast will develop/advect inland and
across the ern and (a portion of) the cntl Carolinas each morning
through the weekend.

Onshore flow, around what will become a persistent sub-tropical high
that will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states,
will transport an increasingly-moist airmass inland, such that
surface dewpoints mostly in the low-mid 50s F over cntl NC this
morning will increase to upr 50s to low-mid 60s by this weekend.
This pattern will favor the inland development/advection of fog and
low overcast into the NC Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills each
morning, with SREF and HREF probabilities that favor greatest
coverage Fri through Sun morning, as the aforementioned surface
dewpoints maximize. That which has developed this morning appears
most likely to impact Sampson Co., and perhaps adjacent portions of
Wayne and Cumberland counties, based on satellite and observational
trends over sern NC this morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Very warm to near record breaking temperatures will
prevail from Thursday through at least the middle of next week, with
highs around 15-20 degrees above normal and lows around 20-25
degrees above normal. While at least isolated showers can`t be ruled
out each day, the best chance of showers and storms comes on
Sunday/Monday and again on Wednesday.

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify over New England Friday
into the weekend while sfc high pressure remains anchored offshore.
This will lock in largely swly flow through much of the lower to mid
levels and associated moisture advection and above normal
temperatures (reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s much of the period.)
The deepest moisture should largely stay to our west Thursday, but
can`t rule out an afternoon shower/storm along the foothills/western
Piedmont. By Friday, the deeper moisture starts to migrate east, and
with it we`ll see continued afternoon isolated to scattered
showers/storms primarily in our western areas.  By Saturday, and
especially into Sunday, the mid-level ridge will break-down. This
will allow highly anomalous moisture to spill east across our area
with pre-frontal showers and storms likely especially on
Sunday/early Monday.  Still a bit out, but we may need to monitor
shear and marginal severe potential on Sunday.  Showers and
scattered storms will linger Monday and Tuesday as a jet lifts over
us and offshore.

Beyond Monday, there appears to be a signal for a temporary re-
amplification of the mid-level ridge up the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday ahead of a strong mid to upper level Baja low.  This may
allow yet another warm up into the lower to mid 80s (although
lingering clouds and precipitation may dampen these highs a bit).
Additional rain chances will continue into middle to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with a
short-lived exception later this morning. An area of fog and stratus
now expanding over sern NC, from SUT and OAJ to near and southeast
of CTZ and DPL, will probably continue to develop nwwd to near and
especially just southeast of FAY and RWI through 13Z. Otherwise,
swly surface winds will strengthen and become gusty into the mid
teens to low 20s kts from late morning through mid-late afternoon,
then diminish by sunset.

Outlook: Areas of fog and/or stratus will likely develop over the
ern Carolinas each morning through the weekend, with relative
highest probability of occurrence at FAY and RWI in cntl NC and with
greatest areal coverage into portions of the Piedmont (near RDU) Fri-
Sat. Additionally, a weakening frontal system will settle into cntl
NC, with an associated likely probability of convection and flight
restrictions, on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 5:  KGSO: 81/1967    KRDU: 83/1967    KFAY: 87/1976

March 6:  KGSO: 78/2022    KRDU: 82/1967    KFAY: 86/1918

March 7:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 85/1974    KFAY: 84/1961

March 8:  KGSO: 83/2000    KRDU: 87/1974    KFAY: 87/1974

March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974

March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974

March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 5:  KGSO: 61/1976     KRDU: 65/1976    KFAY: 63/1976

March 6:  KGSO: 64/1967     KRDU: 64/1967    KFAY: 65/1961

March 7:  KGSO: 63/1956     KRDU: 64/1956    KFAY: 65/1961

March 8:  KGSO: 57/1946     KRDU: 60/1946    KFAY: 63/1961

March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980

March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964

March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/NL
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...