Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

326
FXUS62 KRAH 271910
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered the dew points a few degrees each afternoon from today
  through Wednesday given the continued dry NW flow pattern and good
  mixing each day.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

1) Overall dry weather through the upcoming week, with some
continued signals for increased shower chances by Friday and
especially over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Overall dry weather through the upcoming week, with
some continued signals for increased shower chances by Friday and
especially over the weekend.

The early season nor`easter is currently associated with a 998 mb
surface low centered near Atlantic City, NJ. This low will slowly
lift NE near the New England coast through Tuesday, as weak high
pressure dives down from the Northern Plains to the OH Valley. This
will result in continued dry NW flow across central NC, so lowered
forecast dew points from NBM into the lower-to-mid-50s on Monday and
upper-50s to lower-60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. After one last
gusty day today, winds will subside as the low weakens and moves
further away. Meanwhile, central NC will be in a persistent
subsident regime between ridging aloft shifting east from the
Southern Plains to the Southeast US and the departing low/trough.
This will bring mostly sunny skies and dry weather across central NC
through at least Thursday.

Seasonable temperatures today and Monday (highs in the upper-70s to
lower-80s, lows in the 50s) will give way to a significant warming
trend through the rest of the workweek. Forecast highs are in the
mid-to-upper-80s by Wednesday and Thursday, which could get close to
some daily records.

The next mid/upper trough will approach from the west sometime late
this week or this weekend, resulting in increasing precipitation
chances. However, significant timing differences persist between the
GFS and ECMWF, with the ECMWF much slower with the trough and thus
keeping us mainly dry until late Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand,
brings showers into the area as early as Friday, though it is a wet
outlier on Friday compared to its ensembles. So have POPs ramping up
from around 20-30% on Friday to 30-40% on Saturday and 40-50% on
Sunday.

One last very warm day is expected on Friday with highs in the upper-
80s to lower-90s and lows in the mid-to-upper-60s. Behind a cold
frontal passage on Friday night, temperatures will turn much more
seasonable again over the weekend, with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 24-hour TAF
period. West to northwest winds will gust this afternoon to 15-22
kt, diminishing this evening. Winds are expected to be lighter
tomorrow, out of the west and southwest around 5-8 kt.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should prevail most of the upcoming
week. A low-end chance of showers may return Friday, but most
guidance keeps us dry until the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KGSO: 89/1954
KRDU: 89/1954

October 1:
KGSO: 90/1986
KRDU: 90/1986

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH