Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS62 KRAH 081832
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

1) Typical late-summer weather is expected, with mostly isolated
late-day showers and storms for the next several days.

2) Risk for hot temperatures and dangerous heat increase early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Typical late-summer weather is expected, with
mostly isolated late-day showers and storms for the next several
days.

Near-normal deep-layer moisture, proximity to deep sub-tropical
ridge in the western Atlantic, and minimal mesoscale forcing
mechanisms, should keep coverage of showers/storms to isolated to
locally scattered over the next several days. Coverage of
showers/storms will be locally greatest each day focused around weak
surface pressure trough over the Piedmont, the sea breeze as well as
where moderate low-lvl instability develops, which varies by day.

Most showers/storms that are able to develop through the afternoon
and evening will remain relatively shallow and consist of mostly
showers with isolated/embedded storms with infrequent lightning.
Downdrafts will be equally typical for summer-time storms and
produce 20-30 mph wind gusts immediately surrounding the locations
where they collapse.

Isolated and infrequent strong to locally severe storms can`t be
ruled out given the moderate to strong instability in place within
the hot/humid air mass over the Carolinas (MLCAPE of 2000-3500
J/kg). Clustering storms that collapse along a common cold pool will
have the best chance to produce 40-60 mph wind gusts given the lack
of deep-layer shear to otherwise organize storms (0-6 km shear < 20
kts). Based on low-lvl shear vector, continued storm development
will be most likely along the northeast to easterly quadrant of any
outflow boundary each day.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Risk for hot temperatures and dangerous heat
increase early next week.

Strong sub-tropical ridging over the western Atlantic will continue
to be suppressed south through this weekend before retrograding and
elongating westward across FL and into the northeast Gulf into early
next week. Central NC is expected to situated between two bands of
seasonably anomalous deep-layer moisture Sun into Wed, which should
limit widespread convective chances, although isolated
showers/storms are still possible. Increasing convective debris and
lingering small-scale forcing may couple with a band of deeper
moisture from the Midwest and northern Mid-Atlantic as it sags south
and into the Carolinas Wed night onward which will complicate the
risk for continued dangerous heat beyond Wed.

In the absence of convection, building sub-tropical ridge to our
south and warming H850 temperatures to around 20C would support low-
mid 90s as early as Sun, and as high as upper 90s possible Tues
through Fri. Moisture and associated heat index values during peak
heating will largely depend on the position/location of a persist
Piedmont trough, with drier downsloping flow to its west and more
humid conditions to its east. Locations east of this feature, and
that remain void of convection, will likely reach Moderate HeatRisk
and eclipse 105 degree heat indices during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

Isolated showers and storms have begun to develop across the far
northern Piedmont early this afternoon, including near INT and GSO.
Additional convection has developed over western NC that could spill
into our northern Piedmont into early evening as well. Brief gusty
winds and sub-VFR conditions are possible with any storms, with the
best chance at the Triad sites followed by RDU. The threat around
FAY and RWI is less given a pocket of relatively drier air and lower
instability. Any convection will diminish after dark (00z-01z).
Can`t rule out some fog or low stratus in the far south (including
FAY) late tonight and early Sunday morning, but confidence is not
high enough to include in the TAF there. Outside of any storms,
winds will largely be from the SW through the period around 7 kts or
less, though can`t rule out an isolated gust to around 15 kts this
afternoon.

Outlook: Isolated storms are possible this weekend into early next
week, with an uptick in unsettled weather potential on Wednesday.
Morning stratus and fog is possible any given morning with brief sub-
VFR conditions possible.

&&

Record High Temperatures:

August 11: KGSO: 97/1925 KRDU: 101/1999 KFAY: 100/2009

August 12: KGSO: 97/1918 KRDU: 99/2002 KFAY: 102/1941

August 13: KFAY: 100/2007

August 14: KFAY: 100/1918


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 10: KGSO: 76/2007 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2007

August 11: KGSO: 75/2007 KRDU: 78/2010 KFAY: 78/2010

August 12: KGSO: 74/2016 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 79/2010

August 13: KGSO: 76/2016 KRDU: 77/2016 KFAY: 79/1999

August 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...Danco/Leins