Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS62 KRAH 272332
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
732 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 732 PM Friday...

* Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM Friday...

1) A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon into
the evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms between
about 5 PM and 8 PM followed by lighter patches of rain through
about 1 AM.

2) Increased fire danger for Saturday.

3) Widespread frost is likely early Sunday morning, with a few spots
possibly dropping low enough for a light freeze.

4) Dry weather with steadily increasing temperatures through
mid/late week. A potential shift into a wetter pattern is possible
late week/next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will move through the area late this
afternoon into the evening, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms between about 5 PM and 8 PM followed by lighter
patches of rain through about 1 AM.

While most of the t-storms invof the front between 5-8 PM will be
sub-severe, one or two of them could briefly become stronger with a
small chance of hail and gusty winds. The risk for stronger storms
is very limited though due to marginal instability, but non-zero
chances due to 30+ kts of shear, esp north near the VA border.  As
the evening progresses, the thunderstorms will give way to patchy
light rain that could last for several hours from the mid-evening to
early overnight hours. Rainfall amounts will generally be 1/4 inch
or less with locally higher totals where thunderstorms occur. Behind
the front, winds will shift to the north and northeast, becoming
gusty and advecting in noticeably cooler air through the night. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 30s NW and Triad region to mid 40s
elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Increased fire danger for Saturday.

With sfc dewpoints dropping into the teens to lower 20s on Saturday,
RH values will bottom out between 18 and 25% during the afternoon
across much of central NC. Meanwhile, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are
possible early Saturday, but are expected to diminish some during
the afternoon as the pres gradient relaxes as high pressure
continues building eastward. Since the wind gusts are expected to
drop below RFW criteria by the time the RH meets criteria in the
afternoon, we will forego issuing a RFW attm and instead go with an
increased fire danger statement for all of central NC.  That IFD
statement is in effect between 11 AM and 8 PM on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Widespread frost is likely early Sunday morning,
with a few spots possibly dropping low enough for a light freeze.

A large area of high pressure moving in from Canada will settle over
the region by around sunrise Sunday. Overnight temperatures are
expected to fall into the upper 20s to mid-30s, which will produce
frost in many areas and freezing conditions in the usual colder
spots that drop below 32. Its worth noting that the regions
official frost and freeze alert program doesn`tt begin until April
1st. Until then, the risk will still be mentioned in forecasts, but
formal frost or freeze advisories and warnings will not yet be
issued.

Key Message 4: Dry weather with steadily increasing temperatures
through mid/late week. A potential shift into a wetter pattern is
possible late week/next weekend.

Mid/upper level ridging will remain in place across much of the
eastern CONUS to start the week. This will persist through Wednesday
before it gradually migrates offshore Thursday into Friday. This
will open the door to a series of weak shortwaves which will
traverse the western periphery of the ridge. Moisture return within
this regime will be modest with best moisture transport west of the
mountains to start, although this axis will gradually pivot eastward
by late in the week. All in all precip chances remain low or near
zero through mid week, with a gradual increase Thursday and Friday.
Ensemble mean QPF remains relatively low, with no drought-busting
precip events on the horizon.

Following below normal temps this weekend, temps will be above
normal (if not well above normal) next week with highs ranging from
the mid 70s Monday to the mid 80s Wednesday. Forecast highs are a
bit more uncertain later in the week given the potential for
increased cloud cover and precip, and could conceivably retreat into
the upper 60s/lower 70s if precip does in fact materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 731 PM Friday...

Showers and a few tstorms have popped up across northern areas this
evening along and just ahead of the cold front which has just
cleared KRWI/KINT/KGSO. Expect some additional isolated convection
to possibly impact KRDU/KFAY/KRWI the next few hours. Otherwise,
post-frontal light rain will spread north to south through ~08Z
Saturday morning. A period of IFR/MVFR ceilings will accompany the
post-frontal light rain, generally scattering to VFR from ~12 to
15Z.  Lastly, expect gusty nnwly winds to peak overnight/early
Saturday morning before subsiding mid afternoon.

Outlook: Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible amid a return
flow regime, and associated increase in low-level moisture over cntl
NC, by Tue morning.

&&

Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946

March 31:
KFAY: 90/1910

April 1:
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010

April 2:
KFAY: 90/1974


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27:
KFAY: 65/1949

April 1:
KGSO: 63/2016

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/Leins
AVIATION...Luchetti/np/MWS