Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

800
FXUS62 KRAH 211923
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
223 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

* Continued high confidence in areawide high rain chances Sun into
  Sun evening, although some timing refinements have been made
  including an earlier end to precip in the W (by midday Sun). Also
  expect a brief lull elsewhere for a few hours Sun before
  wraparound precip brings another round of precip to the N and E
  CWA Sun afternoon-evening.
* No significant changes to the potential for a light snow coating
  in the far NE CWA and to the expected brisk and gusty winds Sun
  afternoon into Mon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

1) After a relative lull this evening, rain spreads in overnight and
continues through Sun morning in the W and through Sun night in the
E. Brisk/gusty winds likely Sun/Sun night. Continued chance of a
light dusting of wet snow in the far NE Sun evening.

2) After another cool day on Tuesday, above-normal temperatures will
return on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will turn slightly cooler
behind a cold front that is likely to provide some light to moderate
rain to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a relative lull this evening, rain spreads in
overnight and continues through Sun morning in the W and through Sun
night in the E. Brisk/gusty winds likely Sun/Sun night. Continued
chance of a light dusting of wet snow in the far NE Sun evening.

Overview: Confidence in the sfc and mid level pattern remains high.
The deepening low and shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley late today will dig into the Mid South tonight before taking
on a negative tilt and intensifying further as it swings through
VA/NC through Sun and moves off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun night. At
the surface, the frontal zone will hold just to our S with weak high
pressure nosing in from the NNE this evening, and one or two surface
lows are expected to track along the front, moving from GA across
srn SC through tonight before tracking NE along the coastal
Carolinas early Sun and likely culminating in a bombing low off the
N Outer Banks, VA Tidewater, and S Delmarva Sun night.

Lift/precip chances: Increasing and deepening forcing for ascent is
likely starting late tonight and persisting into Sun, including
strengthening mid level DPVA, high mid-level height falls of 250-300
m late tonight through Sun evening, and modest but focused upper
divergence associated with two ideally juxtaposed jets, over the N
Gulf states and off the Mid Atlantic coast. These mechanisms will
deepen and intensify overall lift over central NC, and despite
incoming PWs just 110-140% of normal, they still support widespread
rain blossoming areawide starting after midnight tonight. Drier air
aloft noted currently on WV imagery over E KS/OK is expected to
swing into the W Carolinas Sun morning, yielding a downturn in pops
over our W counties by midday, but the arrival of the strongest DPVA
and resultant dynamic cooling attending peak upper divergence will
support keeping high pops going through Sun afternoon and evening
over the E CWA, with a second maximum pop from the Triangle to the N
and E late Sun afternoon through Sun evening as the coastal surface
low intensifies with wraparound moisture and mid level deformation
spreading into the NE CWA. With generally good model consistency
with amounts, confidence is high in total rainfall of one-half to
two-thirds inch, with isolated higher totals possible.

Snow potential: With steepening lapse rates through the column
corresponding to the deepening lift and resultant saturation in the
mixed phase region aloft, the chance for a brief period of wet snow
near the end of the precip event remains likely in the NE CWA,
mainly very late Sun afternoon to late evening. Ensemble and high-
res guidance suggests a low risk for impactful accumulating snow,
likely due to the short duration, warm ground, and expected
borderline surface wet bulb temps. HREF probabilities of a tenth of
an inch of total accumulation (dusting) are fairly consistent with
earlier LREF and other ensemble guidance, roughly 25%-50% NE of a
line from Roxboro to Wilson, and this same area has a mostly sub-25%
chance of a half inch or more of total snowfall. The most likely
potential impacts in this area will be some briefly slick roads,
particularly if a period of higher snow rates occurs. The latest WPC
Prototype Snowband Probability Tracker does favor holding any
substantial threat for banded snow to our N and NE as the coastal
cyclone strengthens, suggesting that our overall impacts should be
minor, but will continue to monitor model and observational trends.

Wind: As the low strengthens just off the coast of NE NC and SE VA
and leads to a quickly tightening MSLP gradient, this along with
increasing surface-based lapse rates fostering the potential mixing-
down of stronger winds aloft is likely to result in brisk and gusty
winds Sun/Sun night. The confidence in these stronger winds is high
enough (and supported by new high-res guidance) such that the
official forecast is a lean toward the higher NBM percentiles, and
even this may not be strong enough if some ensemble members and
deterministic models are correct in showing mean BL winds of 30-40
kts late Sun.-GIH


KEY MESSAGE 2... After another cool day on Tuesday, above-normal
temperatures will return on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will turn
slightly cooler behind a cold front that is likely to provide some
light to moderate rain to the area.

NW flow both at the surface and aloft between the departing cyclone
over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the northern Gulf
will result in another cool day on Tuesday across central NC, albeit
slightly modified, with highs in the mid-40s to 50. Lows will be in
the lower-to-mid-30s. By Wednesday, the surface high will push east
to become centered south of Bermuda, which will turn the low-level
flow SW and aid a rebound in temperatures to back above normal.
Forecast highs are upper-50s to lower-60s, with lower-60s to upper-
60s on Thursday. Lows will largely be in the 40s. Can`t rule out
some marginal fire weather concerns on Wednesday as SW winds gust up
to 25-30 mph and RH values drop as low as ~30%.

A shortwave and associated surface low will track across the OH
Valley and central Appalachians on Thursday, then the northern Mid-
Atlantic and southern New England on Thursday night. The associated
cold front will pass through central NC sometime late Thursday or
early Friday. Some light rain is possible during the day Thursday,
mainly in the north, with a band of heavier rain associated with the
cold front likely to move through on Thursday night. While guidance
has come into a bit better agreement compared to yesterday, there
are still some timing differences, with the 12z ECMWF about 6-12
hours slower compared to the GFS. Regardless of which model,
ensemble probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch are virtually
non-existent, with the GEFS mean more like a quarter to half inch
and the ECMWF mean around a half to three quarters of an inch
(highest NW, lowest SE). The system looks to be fast moving, and
there will be a lack of instability. So heavy rain that puts a
significant dent in the ongoing drought appears unlikely at this
time. Temperatures will drop on Friday behind the front, but not by
a lot, reaching values closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Saturday...

TAF period: Although all TAFs should begin as VFR this afternoon,
all sites are expected to eventually drop to LIFR in low ceilings
along with some visibility reductions. The general trend with the
18Z TAF package was to bring lower ceilings into the forecast more
quickly, along with a slightly quicker arrival of rain at all sites
overnight. While INT/GSO should lift to MVFR conditions after
sunrise Sunday, RDU/RWI/FAY are expected to remain IFR/LIFR through
the 18Z TAF period. As was mentioned in the 12Z discussion, still
cannot rule out the potential for reduced ceilings to start
immediately after precipitation comes to an end this afternoon,
although that potential appears to be diminished. As low pressure
deepens off the North Carolina coast tonight, the wind will back to
the northwest with 15-20 kt gusts developing after sunrise.

Outlook: Rain will become more scattered at RWI Sunday
afternoon/evening. Although flight conditions are expected to lift
to VFR by 00Z Monday everywhere, the wind will continue to intensify
Sunday afternoon and evening, with 20-30 kt gusts out of the
northwest expected to continue through at least midnight, if not
through the rest of the night. Expect another round of 20-30 kt wind
gusts out of the northwest on Monday as well. Wind gusts should peak
around 15 kt on Tuesday and 20 kt Wednesday/Thursday. A chance of
rain will return to the forecast on Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Danco
AVIATION...Green