Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

961
FXUS62 KRAH 020616
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

* Increased Fire danger continues to be in effect today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

1) Increased fire danger continues today along with the statewide
burn ban that prohibits outdoor burning.

2) Unseasonably warm Fri and Sat, then widespread showers and storms
Sun with cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger continues today along with
the statewide burn ban that prohibits outdoor burning.

NC forestry officials remain concerned about the very dry fuel
moisture, relative humidity values in the 35-45 percent range, and
marginally breezy and gusty surface winds - all of which are
forecast today. After coordination with NCFS Wednesday afternoon,
it was agreed that the Fire Danger Statement should continue through
at least today. The need for a continuation in subsequent days will
be likely given the lack of change in the drought, dry fuels, breezy
conditions, and very warm temperatures.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Unseasonably warm Fri and Sat, then widespread
showers and storms Sun with cold front passage.

A mid level ridge will remain the dominant feature over the
Southeast Fri/Sat, with unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in
the low to mid 80s. While synoptic subsidence will generally
suppress activity, isolated to scattered "pulse-type" showers and
storms are possible each afternoon primarily in the western Piedmont
due to orographic enhancement from the mountains. Also a secondary
chance for sea-breeze convection in the south and eastern counties.
However, with surface dew points expected to be in the upper 50s
along with poor mid-level lapse rates, CAPE values should stay below
500 J/kg. Given the lack of significant forcing and weak mid-level
flow, convective coverage will be very limited.

Confidence is high for more impactful weather as a strong cold front
approaches from the west. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected as mid and upper level troughing moves across the eastern
US, bringing moderate height falls to the region. While PoPs are now
75-95% range, there remains some model divergence regarding the
timing of the frontal passage. A slower solution would allow for
greater daytime heating and instability. With bulk shear in the 40-
50 kt range, any storms that develop ahead of the front could become
strong to severe. Total rainfall is currently expected to be between
a quarter and half an inch, which will unfortunately provide only
little relief for the ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

There is high confidence VFR should prevail through late
tonight. Then, a mixture of IFR-MVFR ceilings are favored in the 11-
15z period, mainly in the NW Piedmont at INT/GSO and in the NE
Piedmont around RDU. Sub-VFR ceilings should lift by 15z, with south-
southwest winds at times gusting this afternoon to near 20 knots.
VFR all areas this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook: Low-level moisture will gradually deepen and support
increasing probabilities of early morning IFR-MVFR stratus
particularly Fri and Sat mornings, and possibly again Sun, ahead of
a cold front and chance of convection and flight restrictions that
will move across cntl NC on Sun.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record High Temperatures:

April 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KFAY: 90/1974

April 3:
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Danco/CA/GIH
AVIATION...Badgett/Kren