Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

777
FXUS62 KRAH 021840
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

1) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could result in a
localized urban and small stream flooding threat this
afternoon/tonight across central North Carolina, shifting to the I-
95 corridor for Monday afternoon.

2) Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
could result in a localized urban and small stream flooding threat
this afternoon/tonight across central North Carolina, shifting to
the I-95 corridor for Monday afternoon.

A surface low is currently sitting over Ohio with its cold front
extending south into Georgia while an upper level trough is near the
Indiana/Ohio border. Both the surface and upper level features are
helping to bring moist flow out of the southwest with precipitable
water values over 2" over the eastern two-thirds of North Carolina.
While the radar currently shows cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving from S-SW to N-NE along the I-95 corridor, there are
additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms around the
Charlotte metro area and extending farther south into South Carolina
and Georgia. The 12Z HREF shows that the precipitation currently to
the west and southwest will shift into central North Carolina later
this afternoon into the evening, and a corridor from Raleigh down to
Fayetteville appears to be the most likely to see some isolated
higher amounts of rainfall. Confidence is not high enough to issue a
flood watch anywhere as there is still a bit of uncertainty in the
models as to where an axis could develop, but for this afternoon and
evening, it appears that the axis may manage to develop across two
urban areas, which would be more sensitive to heavier rainfall.
Rainfall coverage and rates should begin to drop off by midnight,
with little activity expected overnight into Monday morning. The
axis of heavier rainfall is expected to become more northeast-
southwest oriented Monday afternoon, somewhere likely along the I-95
corridor. Both Sunday and Monday have central North Carolina in a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall, with the
higher/slight risk contained to the immediate North Carolina
coastline each day. Areas from the Triangle and just to the west are
also under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather this
afternoon, with the threat coming from damaging wind. However, the
SPC mesoanalysis page shows that the higher downdraft CAPE is
contained to the VA/NC mountains, and considering forecast soundings
in central North Carolina do not show much in the way of stronger
wind gusts to mix to the surface, do not think that the severe
threat will be much of an issue locally.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected
Tuesday through Friday.

Aloft, expect persistent deep swly flow over the region, with a
trough to the west and Bermuda high pressure to the east. The s/w
energy within the trough will split, with the nrn stream trough
lifting newd, while a low cuts off over the TN Valley/srn
Appalachians by mid-week. While the cutoff low and Bermuda high
remain in place, another trough with embedded shortwaves will
amplify over the Plains then slowly progress ewd across the upr MS-
Valley and Great Lakes through Sat, becoming less amplified and
continuing ewd across the Northeast over the weekend. At the
surface, expect continued swly flow and advection of warm, moist air
into the area through the week. An area of low pressure should lift
newd across the area Tue/Tue night. A weak trough may remain over
the area, while the Bermuda high ridges westward into the region
through the week and into the weekend. GFS forecast soundings
indicate highest PWATs on Tue, around or above 2" across much of the
area, with 500 J/Kg or less of instability and ~20 kts or less of
shear. There will be a chance for generally diurnally driven showers
and storms through the rest of the week. The GFS is drier than the
EC, especially late week into the weekend. All of central NC is in a
Marginal Risk from the WPC for excessive rainfall on Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

TAF period: While INT/GSO will have MVFR ceilings to start the 18Z
TAF period, ceiling heights should not take too long to lift to VFR
levels, and several hours of VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals. After a lull in shower coverage this morning, expect
scattered showers to develop at all sites, with TEMPO groups
maintained from the previous forecast during the time period when
thunderstorms are most likely (although thunderstorms are possible
at any time during the afternoon). As the coverage of showers
decreases, widespread ceilings with flight restrictions are expected
to develop after dusk. The greatest uncertainty is how far east IFR
conditions will extend, and have included FAY in only a TEMPO group
for now while all other sites have IFR as prevailing conditions.
Have not seen many gusts so far today, and have removed gusts
between the lack of observations and the widespread cloud cover that
is expected. While there will be some speed variation, the wind will
generally be out of the south this afternoon and veer to the
southwest overnight.

Outlook: Coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday should be
similar to today, then expect greater coverage of precipitation on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower/storm coverage should decrease again
on Thursday and Friday to more summer-like scattered. Flight
restrictions will be likely each night, especially at any terminal
that receives moderate to heavy rainfall the previous day.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/10
AVIATION...Green