Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

290
FXUS62 KRAH 161032
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
633 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisories likely needed for Friday. At least a low chance of
  PM thunderstorms Friday.

* Rainfall amounts for this weekend through the middle of next week
  have increased slightly over eastern NC

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 208 AM Thursday...

1) Heat Advisories likely needed for Friday. At least a low chance
of PM thunderstorms Friday.

2) Increasingly unsettled weather expected starting Saturday, with
above normal rainfall possible across eastern NC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat Advisories likely needed for Friday. At least
a low chance of PM thunderstorms Friday.

Without satellite data, it is a bit challenging tonight. Strong
ridging today with nearly full sun and afternoon mixing of the dew
points down into the lower to mid 60s will keep heat indices a bit
below the 105 degree criteria for two consecutive hours. Obviously,
it will be hot as highs reach the mid to upper 90s. These readings
will be well above the mid-July normals by 5-8 degrees. Lows tonight
will be hard pressed to fall into the mid to upper 70s, likely
remaining well into the 80s in urban areas through midnight.

Friday, there is support from all sources that highs will be mainly
in the 96-101 range, with heat indices reaching 105+ for a few hours
in the afternoon in the eastern Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and
Sandhills. The NW Piedmont will be close, but around 100-103. So,
advisories will likely be needed for heat Friday.

In addition, a few strong thunderstorms will be possible aided by
MLCapes 2000+ j/kg, increasing low level moisture, high heat, and a
surface lee trough.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasingly unsettled weather expected Saturday
into the weekend, with above normal rainfall possible across eastern
NC.

The upper ridging responsible for the late week hot spell will
break down by Saturday as broad upper troughing is established over
the Great Lakes and Northeast. After a shortwave moves through the
upper trough on Saturday, a cold front is forecast to eventually
sink south into the Mid-Atlantic States and perhaps south into VA/NC
by Sunday/Monday. Meanwhile, an upper wave currently over the
western Caribbean is forecast to drift to the north, resulting in a
trough or area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf and generally
lower heights aloft all along the Appalachians and Southeast. This
will lead to increasingly unsettled weather, moreso Sunday into
early next week, with the potential for the low over the northeast
Gulf to briefly obtain some tropical structure and drift to the
Southeast coast. Regardless of the specific evolution of a low,
increased moisture, particularly if tapped from the Atlantic, along
with the potential for anomalous PW and with a stalled boundary over
the region will be favorable near or above normal rainfall over at
least eastern NC. Current official QPF paints one inch or greater
totals east of US 1, although longer range ensembles  suggest those
one inch or greater totals could extend further west by mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 633 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail
through the TAF period. However, there is a chance of a thunderstorm
Friday afternoon and early evening.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions expected. However, there will be a
chance of PM showers/storms Sat-Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record temperatures within 3F of forecast ones...

Record Highs:

July 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Mins:

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2019

July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025

July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023

July 20: KRDU: 76/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Smith
AVIATION...Badgett