Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

656
FXUS62 KRAH 070957
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
557 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory issued

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

1) Ongoing convection will wane through the overnight hours. It`ll
be another hot day with scattered showers and storms again this
afternoon as a weak front approaches from the north.

2) Rainfall chances decreasing through the week but increasing this
weekend. Another round of hot temperatures but not to the same
extent as our recent hot stretch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 557 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... It`ll be another hot day with scattered showers and
storms again this afternoon as a weak front approaches from the
north.

Morning satellite imagery reveals decaying convection and debris
clouds over much of central NC. The remnants of last night`s storms
are barely visible on radar this morning, with a weak MCV over Moore
Co and another over Orange Co. Many locations saw rain yesterday and
where clouds have cleared out in these areas, we`ve seem some patchy
fog development. Abundant cloud cover should prevent this from
getting too widespread or dense, and any fog should mix out by 8-9
AM.

Now that we`ve reached daybreak we`ve finally reached a point where
the atmosphere is convectively overturned, bringing about a
(temporary) end to our precip chances. Attention turns toward an
approaching surface trough to our north and an approaching shortwave
trough to our south. Both should provide sufficient lift to support
another round of afternoon showers and storms this afternoon. With
modest instability and little in the way of deep layer shear, storms
will once again depend on outflow collisions to sustain themselves
with damaging winds and periods of heavy rain as the primary
threats. HREF LPMM once again showing a few pockets of 2-3" of
rainfall with the greatest concentration across the northern Coastal
Plain. Pinpointing the exact areas where the heaviest rainfall will
occur is challenging to say the least but the potential for another
round of heavy rain and localized flooding is certainly in play once
again this afternoon.

It will also be hot today ahead of the approaching surface trough,
with the hottest values and highest heat indices likely confined to
the southern and central Coastal Plain where heat indices could
reach 105 degrees or higher this afternoon. As such we`ve issued a
Heat Advisory for today for these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rainfall chances decreasing through the week but
increasing this weekend. Another round of hot temperatures but not
to the same extent as our recent hot stretch.

The weak front that will make a run at central NC today will likely
stall across our area and/or wash out entirely before making it
entirely through the forecast area. At the same time the upper low
over the lower Ohio Valley will open up and be drawn northeastward
into portions of KY/IN. While precip chances will remain elevated on
Wednesday given the presence of the stalled front and eastward
progressing upper low, they should decrease later in the week in the
wake of the departing upper wave. At that point we should see weak
ridging over much of the southeast as a 595dm 500mb high centers
itself over FL. This will act to further reduce precip chances
across NC while also drawing warmer and more humid conditions into
the area. We`ll likely see highs range from the low/mid 90s on
Wednesday gradually increasing to the upper 90s/near 100 on Friday.
At first glance it would appear the most worrisome heat indices will
be confined to the southern Coastal Plain although those sensitive
to the heat will undoubtedly want to monitor forecasts through the
week as temps warm up once again.

The passage of a longwave trough through the Mid Atlantic this
weekend should knock temperatures down a bit closer to (but still
above) normal, and will also bring about a return of afternoon
shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday. Today`s 00Z long
range ensemble clusters suggest a period of northwest flow aloft
early next week as a massive near-600dm 500mb ridge takes hold over
the central US. The deterministic GFS appears to be a bit of an
outlier showing a deep low riding down the east side of the ridge
into NC by early next week but for the time being we`ll hold off on
that particular solution until it gains more support.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 522 AM Tuesday...

For the most part both cigs and vsbys are VFR across the region this
morning thanks in large part to convective debris from overnight
storms. Where skies have cleared there could still be a brief period
of sub-VFR vsbys that lingers just after daybreak but this should be
a non-factor by the time the TAFs are issued.

The focus for this afternoon will be on storm development, with
chances of sub-VFR weather at all sites as thunderstorms develop and
move through the area. Convection is likely to hold off until around
20Z at all sites and I`ll depict poorest conditions between 20Z-00Z.
After that there is a signal in the guidance for storms to linger
near RDU and RWI past midnight, somewhat similar to what was seen
this morning. Either way, expect the majority of storms to dissipate
by 06Z with some sub-VFR stratus possible near the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will be common each afternoon,
with a gradual decrease in areal coverage each day through Friday,
with increased storm chances returning this weekend. Outside of
cig/vsby restrictions within storms, morning fog/stratus is also a
possibility at any given TAF site.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins
AVIATION...Leins