Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

877
FXUS62 KRAH 191413
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1013 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today from 1
  PM until 9 PM for the western Piedmont and Sandhills of NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1010 AM Sunday...

1) Increased Fire Danger today and again tomorrow, with possible Red
Flag criteria being met at times on Monday.

2)  It will be noticeably cooler and breezy behind a cold front
today, with a chance of light, stratiform rain in the morning and
clearing through the afternoon-evening.

3) Patchy frost will be possible over rural nrn Piedmont locations
tonight, then again over most of cntl NC (except perhaps the srn
Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain) Tue morning.

4) Aside from Tuesday, temperatures will be above normal through the
extended forecast period. Dry through the end of the work week, with
the next chance of rain over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1010 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger today and again tomorrow,
with possible Red Flag criteria being met at times on Monday.

Update: After collaborating with the NCFS and surrounding NWS
Offices in NC, an Increased Fire Danger statement was issued for
today for the western Piedmont and Sandhills of central NC. The
combination of very dry to historic dryness within 100-hr fuels,
dropping RH values into the 20s and teens, and gusty northwest winds
20 to 30 mph will support a risk rapid spread of any wildfires by
this afternoon. Given the lack of rainfall expected today, fine
fuels should recover/dry very quickly by this afternoon and be prime
for easy fire ignition.

Previous discussion as of 540 AM follows...

As for Monday, Wly to nwly flow, within a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer of 7-9 thousand ft AGL, will result both ahead of and behind a
cold front forecast to settle south across cntl NC during the
afternoon-evening. With that strong and deep mixing, and momentum
transfer of 30-35 kts at its top, related surface winds will likely
average mid to upr teens mph, with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph and
infrequent peaks to around 35 mph. Given the already dry airmass
that will have been deposited behind today`s cold front, RH will
likely reach critical values of 25% during the morning (probably by
~10 AM) over the srn Piedmont and Sandhills, then elsewhere over
cntl NC by afternoon, when widespread 15-25% minimums will be
likely. Confidence is above average on these criteria being met,
with maximum temporal overlap and duration across the srn Piedmont
and Sandhills. A band of altocumulus along the front may locally and
briefly limit otherwise strong insolation and dry adiabatic mixing
and peak gust potential over the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain,
such that the temporal overlap of critical wind and RH there may be
limited to just a couple or so hours. Coordination of possible fire
weather headlines will likely be needed with NCFS and surrounding
WFOs later today.


KEY MESSAGE 2... It will be noticeably cooler and breezy behind a
cold front today, with a chance of light, stratiform rain in the
morning and clearing through the afternoon-evening.

A couple of shortwave perturbations, evident in GOES-E water vapor
satellite data over the mid and upr MS Valley this morning, will
pivot across the Great Lakes and upr OH Valley today and nrn Middle
Atlantic and srn QC tonight. Glancing but seasonably strong 500 mb
height falls of 60-100 meters will result across cntl NC today. A
strong low-level frontal zone, strongest along and nearest the upr
feature`s path across the Middle Atlantic, will progress across the
Carolinas and offshore by mid-afternoon.

The passage of the surface cold front, which at 07Z stretched from
ern NY and cntl PA swwd through ern WV, swrn VA, and along the TN/NC
border, will be marked by the arrival of markedly cooler air and
nwly winds that will gust up to 30-35 mph, strongest for a few hours
immediately post-frontal passage. A band of light, anafrontal rain
and widespread clouds will also follow the front, with both expected
to move east and yield afternoon through evening clearing. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be spotty and very limited: a Trace to a few
hundredths over srn zones to perhaps a tenth of an inch or so over
the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Patchy frost will be possible over rural nrn
Piedmont locations tonight, then again over most of cntl NC (except
perhaps the srn Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain) Tue morning.

Following today`s cold frontal passage, Pacific high pressure will
briefly extend across the Southeast through Monday. A reinforcing,
polar cold front will settle swd and across cntl NC late Mon
afternoon through evening. Canadian high pressure will then build
across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday.

Strong radiational cooling of the post-frontal airmass tonight will
favor low temperatures in the mid-upr 30s over rural Piedmont
locations to lwr-mid 40s elsewhere, supportive of patchy frost in
typically cooler, rural locations over the nrn Piedmont. The colder,
Canadian high will become centered around 1030 mb over VA by 12Z Tue
and support even chillier temperatures over cntl NC Tue morning,
with lows likely to range from around freezing over the far nrn
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain to upr 30s to around 40 F along the
SC line. Although surface (2-meter) dewpoints will likely be in the
20s F during that time, with associated marginal RH values for frost
development, ground-level RH should be higher and adequate for at
least patchy frost development.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Aside from Tuesday, temperatures will be above
normal through the extended forecast period. Dry through the end of
the work week, with the next chance of rain over the weekend.

Aloft, the longwave trough will shift ewd and offshore Tue/Tue
night. The ridge will progress ewd across the CONUS through the
week, to over the region by the end of the week. At the surface, the
~1030 mb high over the mid-Atlantic Tue morning will move ewd across
the region and offshore by Tue night. A low may track ewd across the
Northeast or nrn mid-Atlantic Wed/Thu, but should stay north of NC.
Uncertainty increases beyond Thu as model spread increases. Highs
Tue will still be below normal, mid 60s NE and east to low 70s SW.
Above normal temperatures may return by Wed, with a moderating trend
through the work week. The weather should largely remain dry through
the week, however the guidance still shows a signal for some rain
over the weekend, though timing and amounts are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 540 AM Sunday...

A cold front and following band of low VFR ceilings and patches of
light rain will move across cntl NC this morning, during which time
ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR near and northeast of RWI.
Generally light sswly surface winds ahead of the cold front will
veer sharply to nwly and become strong and gusty behind it,
strongest in the first few hours immediately following its passage.

Outlook: Shallow radiation fog will be possible over ern NC,
including near and probably just east of RWI, late tonight-Mon
morning, where low level moisture characterized by surface dewpoints
in the 30s to around 40 F will linger.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/CA/AS/KCP
AVIATION...MWS