Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS62 KRAH 161900
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A couple of cold fronts will move south and across cntl NC Fri
  through Sat, with moisture and instability maximized and most
  supportive of showers/storms between the two.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

1) A couple of cold fronts will move south and across cntl NC Fri
through Sat, with moisture and instability maximized and most
supportive of showers/storms between the two.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A couple of cold fronts will move south and across
cntl NC Fri through Sat, with moisture and instability maximized and
most supportive of showers/storms between the two.

An anomalously strong subtropical to lwr mid-latitude ridge may
yield an observed 500 mb height of 600 dam at FFC or BNA this
evening, while retrograding across the TN and lwr MS Valleys through
Sat. Nwly flow around the nern periphery of the ridge may direct at
least a few convectively-enhanced mid-level disturbances from the OH
Valley to the (particularly wrn) Carolinas Thu through Fri night,
before a col and area of weak and variable flow becomes established
over cntl NC this weekend.

At the surface, a couple of closely-spaced fronts, now stretching
and modulated by convection across the upr OH through mid MS
Valleys, will progress somewhat discontinuously swd across the OH
Valley and Middle Atlantic through early Fri. The lead front,
pressure trough, and convergence axis will progress generally sewd
across cntl NC through the day Fri, and through a residually-
dry/continental pre-frontal airmass deposited by the preceding
Canadian high and dry air ridge. Low-level moisture and instability
--and favored region for showers/storms-- will be maximized between
that lead front and a trailing, backdoor segment that will meanwhile
progress swwd through VA and into-through cntl NC late Fri through
early Sat. The timing of those features and instability axis would
favor showers/storms over the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain Fri
afternoon-evening, then the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain Fri
night-Sat. Weak lapse rates and shear will limit storm intensity
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Canadian high pressure will continue to extend across the srn Middle
Atlantic and favor mainly VFR conditions in cntl NC through the 18Z
TAF period. The only exception to VFR during that time will be a
chance of visibility restrictions in shallow, radiation fog/mist at
RWI again Thu morning.

Outlook: While a shower or storm may drift southeast and to INT or
the vicinity Thu afternoon-evening, the relative best chance of
convection will exist along a cold front forecast to move through
cntl NC Fri afternoon-evening. A risk of convection will linger over
srn/sern NC Fri night and Sat, including at FAY. Nely flow behind
that front will otherwise increase the likelihood of IFR-MVFR
ceilings Sat morning, lowest and most prolonged over the Piedmont
(especially at INT/GSO). Additional sub-VFR ceilings will be
possible again Sun morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...MWS