Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS62 KRAH 120634
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

* No appreciable changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

1) A strong cold front will bring widespread showers today, with the
possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms primarily south
and east of Raleigh late this morning.

2) Another strong cold front will shift across the region Monday and
bring a low-predictablity risk for severe weather, primarily in the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

1) A strong cold front will bring widespread showers today, with the
possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms primarily south
and east of Raleigh late this morning.

Water vapor imagery this morning depicted a strong vort max moving
across and triggering convection over the Gulf states. A few weaker
perturbations were also evident stretching light to moderate
rainfall north into the southern Appalachians.

At the sfc, latest analysis depicted the strong cold front just west
of the NC mountains pushing into far eastern TN.  Dew points across
central NC this morning aren`t overly impressive, largely in the mid
50s to lower 60s with higher dew points locked ahead of the
advancing squall line in the Deep South. However, with time, expect
some of that deeper moisture to advect north into our area ahead of
the advancing cold front. As strong mid-level height falls spread
across the southeast this morning, the line of convection will push
east across central NC through mid afternoon.

Strengthening flow aloft will increase bulk layer shear upwards of
60 kts during this time. As such, if any instability can be realized
later this morning/early afternoon a low-end severe threat will be
possible. The 00Z HREF updraft helicity swaths were largely
clustered along the NC/SC border up into the Sandhills and Coastal
Plain which generally aligns with latest upstream radar and
observational trends.  Forecasted hodographs largely indicate strong
mid/upper-level shear, with weaker lower-level shear. As such, think
that any organized storms would largely favor a severe wind gust
threat via mixing of stronger winds aloft to the sfc and a lesser
hail threat. While an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out, the
better instability/kinematic combo for tornadoes will be to our
south.

The severe threat should largely end by ~19Z as the cold front
quickly sweeps east of our area. Although lingering light
precipitation will be possible through ~21Z. Some CAMs are trying to
generate snow on the back-end of the exiting precipitation along the
NC/VA border. However, looking at forecast soundings in this
vicinity, saturation in the DGZ is limited, and dry air quickly
advects in from the west. As such, while there could be a few flakes
that mix in across the NC/VA border no accumulation nor impacts
would be expected.

Rather anomalous warm temperatures this morning should drastically
cool with frontal passage this morning/early afternoon. Overnight
temps tonight will drop into the lower 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Another strong cold front will shift across the
region Monday and bring a low-predictablity risk for severe weather,
primarily in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Overall there is reasonably good confidence in the evolution of the
mid/upper level pattern within the medium range. A more highly
amplified system is expected to develop over the northern/central
CONUS Sun and progress eastward into the Great Lakes into the TN
Valley by Mon. At the surface, this will result in a stationary
boundary over the Carolinas to lift northward as a warm front Sun
into Sun evening as surface high pressure strengthens off the
Northeast coast while at the same time low pressure deepens over the
OH Valley. Strengthening southwesterly flow will result in a narrow
window of moisture return into the region ahead of yet another
strong cold frontal passage.

The overwhelming trend within the ensemble guidance is a slightly
slower and more amplified trough as it progresses through the
Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This has resulted in a roughly
6hr-12hr delay in the cold fropa among mean MSLP fields, with the
most likely timing now centered in the 15z Mon to 00z Tues; which is
diurnally favorable for severe weather. A complication to the
convective risk appears to be a signal for morning stratus layer,
especially in the initially upslope region into the Piedmont.
Instability still appears to weak overall (500 J/kg or less and
maximized over the Coastal Plain) and result in a highly conditional
high-shear, low-cape setup that will need to be watched closely.
Mostly straight hodographs with 40-60 kts of deep layer shear
oriented parallel to the cold front will favor strong to severe
winds to be the primary severe hazard if a severe threat were to
develop. Low-level shear of > 20 kts and 0-1 SRH of > 100 m2/s2 also
suggests a low-end tornado threat can`t be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 116 AM Thursday...

06Z Update: Gusty sswly flow under VFR conditions persist early this
morning. After assessing latest high-res guidance, the timing of
showers/impacts and other details from the previous discussion below
appear to be still valid at this time.

Previous discussion:

VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. South to
southwest winds continue to prevail across the terminals this
evening and this is expected to continue prior to a cold frontal
passage Thursday morning. Once the front moves through, gusts will
remain, but switch to be out of the northwest between 25 and 30 kt,
with an infrequent gust to 35 kt certainly possible as well. With
the front approaching, restrictions with showers will promote MVFR
conditions. The heaviest period of showers looks to move through
between 14 and 21z, earliest in the west at GSO/INT and latest at
RWI in the east. Associated with these heavier pockets of rain will
be the potential for IFR and perhaps brief LIFR. Instability may
favor a low-end storm threat, most favored at FAY, where a TEMPO for
TSRA was introduced. VFR should return by the tail end of the TAF
period, though gusts should continue from the NW before diminishing
Thu night.

VFR returns Fri into Sat. Increasing moisture return followed by
another cold front will bring a return to sub-VFR conditions and
showers on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/AS
AVIATION...Luchetti/Kren