Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS62 KRAH 051731
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion with some very low end probabilities of
  brief low clouds with the front tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Monday...

1) Drier today with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures.

2) A dry week is expected. Temperatures will average close to normal
for early October through mid-week, then trend above normal late in
the week. The next chance of rain possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier today with decreasing clouds and warmer
temperatures.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows continued southwesterly flow
across the Carolinas. A deepening upper low over Quebec is drawing
drier air into the western Appalachians with broad northwesterly
flow extending back all the way to the northern Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is making its way through the Ohio Valley with
surface high pressure building southward from Alberta CA. Meanwhile
across NC, the extensive cloud cover that has been locked in place
since Saturday is in the process of breaking up and eroding. While
there is no shortage of high cloud cover within the broad
southwesterly flow aloft, the thicker/lower/more stratiform ceilings
are quickly eroding across the western Piedmont this morning.

For the remainder of the early morning hours, a weak wave moving
through upstate SC could bring a stray sprinkle or shower to the
Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain, although most ob sites are only
showing trace amounts (if that). Given relatively drier air to the
north, most of this precip should remain on the southern fringes of
our CWA before moving offshore after daybreak. There could be some
patchy fog north of this area of precip although given extensive
cloud cover, widespread dense fog isn`t expected.

By late morning/early afternoon, we should see a marked reduction in
cloud cover as the Ohio Valley cold front approaches the area and
broad northwesterly/downslope flow takes hold across NC. This will
also allow temps to warm well into the mid/upper 70s this afternoon
before falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight. A reinforcing
surge of drier air will arrive late tonight, with dewpoints falling
into the mid 40s by daybreak Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry week is expected. Temperatures will average
close to normal for early October through mid-week, then trend above
normal late in the week. The next chance of rain possibly Saturday
and Sunday.

Much drier air associated with surface high pressure building from
the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states will bring mainly
clear/sunny conditions Tuesday into Wednesday night. Lows will dip
into the 40s Tuesday night and around 50 Wednesday night. Highs will
be rather cool in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Reinforcing dry air associated with another high pressure will
spread into the region late Thursday and Friday. The temperatures
will most likely trend into the upper 70s to lower 80s late week,
with lows in the 50s.

The next chance of rain appears to be possibly over the weekend.
There continues to be quite a bit of model spread with the potential
Gulf to SE United States system, with the EC ensemble currently
preferred, which may obviously change with time. As of right now,
the EC depicts higher rain chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday,
with the higher POP in the south and east as is the low pressure
track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

MVFR ceilings are very slowly dissipating from RDU south and east
this afternoon.  VFR is expected everywhere by 21Z.  A cold front
will surge south through the area tonight, with winds turning
northeasterly behind the front.  While the front will be mostly dry
overall, some guidance hints at a brief band of clouds overnight
perhaps as low as 3000 ft.  Confidence in anything over VFR is very
low, so we have opted to just add a TEMPO showing scattered 3500ft
bases for a few hours.

The northeasterly winds behind the front will be steady at 5-10kt,
and we can`t rule out a few early gusts at RWI or FAY on Tuesday.
Otherwise, VFR is expected.

Outlook: VFR weather expected at all sites through at least Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Badgett
AVIATION...BLS