Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS62 KRAH 070806
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
306 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm southwest flow will strengthen over the area through
Wednesday. A backdoor cold front will move through Wednesday
night, as cooler high pressure settles into southeastern
Virginia. The front lifts back north on Friday as a warm front.
A strong cold front will move through Sunday, with cold high
pressure to follow early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 112 AM Wednesday...

* Over 20 degrees above normal for most places today

Ridging over the Central/Southern Plains will migrate eastward
tonight towards the TN valley and parts of the Carolinas. At the
surface, we will see a lee trough across the western part of the
state, setting up a warm downslope WNW flow this afternoon. Before
that happens, model guidance is hinting at the potential for some
pooling of moisture over the southern Piedmont and Sandhills early
this morning. This could lead to some patchy fog or low stratus
prior to 9 am. Confidence on where this occurs is not great, along
with how extensive it may be. Given that winds remain stirred,
feeling is that it should be isolated, but will continue to monitor
for any fog advisory.

Highs should be over 20 degrees above normal in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Record high temperatures (see climate section) may be met
at GSO (71) or get close at RDU (75).

Tonight, a backdoor front will slide south and west from
southeastern VA, as cool high pressure settles over the southern Mid-
Atlantic region. The passage should largely be uneventful, but lows
should be lower from the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 AM Wednesday...

* Still quite mild behind a dry cold front

* Potential in-situ CAD regime early Fri

An anonymously strong mid-level ridge will build east over much of
the eastern part of the country Thu. At the surface, a backdoor cold
front will have settled across upstate SC, with cool high pressure
near Delmarva. The high to our northeast will favor an ESE flow and
somewhat lower high temperatures. Highs will still be some 14 to 18
degrees above normal in the low 60s NE to mid/upper 60s in the
central and south/west zones.

By Thu night to early Fri, the cool high pressure system will shift
off Delmarva into the North Atlantic. As this happens, a strong area
of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes, aiding the stalled
front to our south to lift north as a warm front. Increasing WAA
atop the stable surface layer could favor the development of some
low stratus and patchy fog over the western Piedmont, especially the
Triad. The pattern looks similar to a possible in-situ CAD regime
that could set up, as forecast soundings show moistening low-levels
at 850-mb and lower, beneath an elevated inversion. Even some high-
res models such as the NAM-NEST and GEM-RDPS indicate some possible
drizzle early Fri in the NW. Regardless, it should favor a cloudy
night to early Fri with lows in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday

* Unseasonably warm temperatures Friday and Saturday, with
  temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal.

* A cold front will cross the area this weekend, which will provide
  the area with the next good chance for rain/showers, with and
  colder temps behind the front.

The pattern becomes more amplified by Friday into the weekend, with
the potential for multiple disturbances moving through the deepening
longwave trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the country, which will
eventually drive a cold front into and through the area, leading to
increasing rain chances across central NC. While there`s still some
uncertainty with regard to some of the details with the timing of
the front and precip, models have come into much better agreement
with regard to the overall large scale pattern and timing.

The aforementioned cold front will stall as it begins to move into
western NC as the lead s/w energy lifts northeastward from the
central plains into the Great Lakes region as an anomalous mid/upper
level ridge holds across the southwest U.S on Friday. The latest
guidance is in much better agreement (compared to this time last
night) showing a slower timing of precip making it into the
northwest Piedmont on Friday, with the bulk of any shower activity
holding off until Friday evening/night. Additional s/w southern and
northern stream energy will move through the longwave trough helping
to deepen the trough and pushing the overall l/w trough eastward and
and propelling the low level frontal zone into central NC, allowing
for the area of showers to push eastward and into all of central NC
on Saturday into Saturday night, while the main surface low lifts
northward into the Great Lakes and becomes occluded. The trailing
cold front will move through the area Saturday night/Sunday morning,
ending any threat of showers and ushering in much colder
temperatures. This will result in some gusty winds on Saturday
through Sunday, with wind gust of up to 30 mph possible.

Ahead of the front, well above normal temps will continue with highs
expected to range from the upper 60s to near 70 in the northwest to
the mid to upper 70s across the southeast for both Friday and
Saturday, with overnight lows Saturday morning in the upper 50s to
near 60. These temps will threaten some record high max temps and
record high min temps. Please see climate section below for more
information.

Dry conditions and more seasonable temps are expected for the end of
the weekend and early next week behind the front, with high temps by
Monday and Tuesday in the upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 112 AM Wednesday...

Main challenges in the TAF period is the potential for some early
morning stratus or fog. Guidance is not overly enthused on this
potential, with the best chance favored at FAY. With southwest
surface winds remaining stirred, it would appear fog chances are
somewhat lower than the past few nights. However, if winds can
decouple at FAY, GSO, INT, then cannot rule out some patchy sub-VFR
conditions, with the best potential at FAY. This is expected between
10 and 14z. Thereafter WNW winds will pick up during the day, with
occasional gusts to 20 kt, especially across the northern TAF sites.
Winds will weaken before shifting to be out of the NE with a late
evening cold frontal passage. No restrictions are expected with the
front.

Outlook: Some morning stratus or sub-VFR visibilities are possible
Fri morning within a potential in-situ CAD regime, most favored at
GSO/INT. A strong cold front will bring the chance of sub-VFR
conditions in showers, along with gusty shifting winds Sat into
Sun.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

January 7:
KGSO: 71/1982
KRDU: 75/1907
KFAY: 80/1946

January 9:
KRDU: 73/2008
KFAY: 77/1930

January 10:
KGSO: 73/1949
KRDU: 75/1930
KFAY: 79/1930


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

January 10:
KGSO: 58/1937
KFAY: 59/1937



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH