Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

440
FXUS62 KRAH 130653
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

1) A broken line of decaying showers is expected to
move across the area this evening into tonight.

2) Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited (slight chances of)
diurnal convection this weekend through the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A broken line of decaying showers is expected to
move across the area this evening into tonight.

A srn stream s/w will shift off the Southeast US coast this morning
then lift newd off the East Coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a nrn
stream s/w will track across the region, helping to amplify/sharpen
the parent trough as a low closes off within it over srn Ontario.
The trough will generally remain over the East Coast on Thu while
the low drops sewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic, both shifting
offshore Thu night/Fri. At the surface, as the high shifts farther
offshore today, the ridge extending wwd into the region between a
low moving off the Southeast US coast and a cold front approaching
from the NW will gradually weaken. Low-level moisture recovery still
appears to be limited ahead of the cold front arrival this evening,
which will greatly limit instability across the area. With that in
mind, as noted in the previous discussion, the line of convection
along and ahead of the front to weaken/decay as it moves into and
across the area this evening and tonight and maintenance of deep
convection appears unlikely. Cannot completely rule out a rumble of
thunder over the NW Piedmont this eve, but chances continue to
decrease. Rainfall totals will generally be a tenth of an inch or
less across the area. High temperatures should top out in the upper
70s to low 80s. The cold front will move across the area this
eve/tonight and be off the Carolina coast by Thu morn. Cool high
pressure will gradually build ewd into the region in Thu/Thu night.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited
(slight chances of) diurnal convection this weekend through the
middle of next week

A sub-tropical anticyclone in the mid-levels over nrn MX and wrn TX
will progress across the srn US through the weekend, then amplify
along or just off the South Atlantic coast early next week. Low
amplitude, quasi-zonal flow, which will probably include both an EML
plume and convectively-amplified disturbances, will prevail around
it from the srn and cntl Plains to the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic
this weekend.

Surface high pressure beneath and downstream of the associated ridge
will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a
trough will extend in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a
sea breeze will move through the entirety of cntl NC each late
afternoon-evening. Warm and seasonably moist sswly flow around the
Bermuda high and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures
mostly in the lwr 90s and mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s by
Sun, with similarly hot and slightly more-humid conditions likely to
continue through the middle of next week. An associated weakly
unstable and weakly capped environment (with pockets of moderate
instability possible) will become supportive of isolated/widely
scattered convection - favored along the lee trough (nw Piedmont)
and also along the sea breeze (Sampson Co.) through mid-evening,
when nocturnal cooling and boundary layer stabilization should cause
convective inhibition to become prohibitive to development.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions should largely prevail the TAF
period. There may be some clouds with bases in the 4-8 kft range
across the south and east this morn/aft, but the better chance for 5-
8 kft cigs will be with the showers moving in from the NW this
evening. Sly-sswly winds will increase this morning to 5-10 kts.
There may be a general lull in winds after sunset before they become
nwly and increase behind the front late.

Outlook: Expect a 20-25 kt LLJ to develop tonight, but for now it
remains below LLWS criteria. Some of the guidance shows possible sub-
VFR conditions near KFAY tonight/early Thu morn, but confidence is
not high on whether or not it will impact the terminal. Any sub-VFR
conditions that do materialize should return to VFR Thu morn and
remain largely VFR through Sun, although some early morning sub-VFR
fog is possible by Sun morn. Expect some gusty winds to around 20
kts on Thu, abating after sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

May 17:
KGSO: 94/1915
KRDU: 92/1947
KFAY: 97/1941

May 18:
KGSO: 95/1911
KRDU: 95/1906
KFAY: 96/1911


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 17:
KGSO: 69/1991
KRDU: 71/2025

May 18:
KGSO: 70/2015
KRDU: 72/1896
KFAY: 71/2018

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/MWS
AVIATION...10