Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS62 KRAH 111005
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* no changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 253 AM Saturday...

1) Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across all of central NC
today and across parts of central NC on Sunday

2) A heat advisory today for Wayne, Sampson and Cumberland Counties
- Noon until 8 PM.

3) Turning drier and warmer early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 253 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across all
of central NC today and across parts of central NC on Sunday

A series of short/wave troughs embedded within the westerly flow
aloft will move eastward today from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Thunderstorms, driven in part by these waves, will track
eastward as the day progresses. The last several runs of the HRRR
have been depicting a small cluster of storms moving across central
NC later this afternoon and evening, with storms initiating over our
western Piedmont counties by early to mid afternoon, followed by
storms organizing into clusters and progressing east across central
NC through the evening. SPC continues to highlight central NC in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today, with
damaging straight-line winds posing the primary hazard. While deep-
layer shear remains modest, localized wet microbursts are possible
where stronger downdrafts develop. WPC also maintains a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall, with localized flash flooding possible
where storms train or repeatedly move over the same locations.

Sunday will feature a cold front slipping south across the area.
Latest CAMS suggest scattered showers/tstms may develop in vicinity
of the front.   Given the persistent hot and humid airmass across
the region, particularly south of the front, resultant instability
will again support isolated svr storms with damaging wind gusts and
localized heavy downpours the primary hazards.  The marginal risk is
mainly across SW portion of central NC in conjunction with said
front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A heat advisory today for Wayne, Sampson and
Cumberland Counties - Noon until 8 PM

Another day of heat index readings of 103-105 in the advisory
counties have prompted the said advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning drier and warmer early next week.

In the wake of this weekend`s unsettled pattern and increased precip
chances, an anomalously strong 500mb ridge will take hold over the
northern CONUS and stretch from MT to MI. In this scenario, the
upper ridge will actually build into NC from the north as the center
of the ridge gradually slides eastward through the week. Between
this upper ridging and a quasi-stationary surface high pressure axis
stretching from New England into VA, a good portion of the upcoming
week should see drier than normal conditions. Convection over the
western Piedmont should be fairly isolated with the highest chances
across central NC (albeit limited) focused across the southern
Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Late in the week the upper ridge will
break down and weaken and the surface ridge will slide offshore
setting up return flow, increased moisture, and precip chances
across NC.

As upper level ridging takes hold this week, temperatures will begin
a steadily climb upward. Highs should quickly jump from the upper
80s on Tuesday to the mid 90s Wednesday, then approach the upper 90s
(near 100) Thursday and Friday. Similarly, dangerously high heat
index values will return to the forecast, especially Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

TAF Period: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through much
of the period. Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop over the
western Piedmont during the afternoon, with the greatest potential
for TSRA impacts at INT/GSO between 18-22Z before shifting east
across RDU/RWI/FAY between 20-01Z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions will
be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty
and erratic outflow winds. Outside of convection, southwest winds of
5 to 10 kt and VFR conditions are expected. Convection should
diminish from west to east during the evening, with VFR prevailing
overnight.

Outlook: Another round of showers/tstms Sunday with localized
reduced flt conditions.  Conditions should finally dry out by Monday
night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 11: KGSO 75/1992  KRDU: 77/1981  KFAY: 77/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ078-
088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/Leins
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH