Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS62 KRAH 270603
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Monday...

1) The weak boundary moving through the region overnight will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along the I-95
corridor this afternoon.

2) There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, with the primary threat
coming from damaging wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The weak boundary moving through the region
overnight will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast along the I-95 corridor this afternoon.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through central
North Carolina overnight. That boundary will make its way past the I-
95 corridor and stall across eastern North Carolina this afternoon.
The bulk of the rain will stay to the east of the area, but there
will be a slight chance for showers between US-1 and I-95 and a
better chance for showers east of I-95. Thunderstorms will be
possible, but with minimal wind shear, the threat for any severe
thunderstorms is minimal with a lack of organization. While highs
will still be a few degrees below normal, highs will return to the
mid 80s to lower 90s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, with the
primary threat coming from damaging wind.

Low pressure currently over the northern Plains will move southeast,
reaching Lake Erie by Tuesday morning then drifting east into New
York through Wednesday. While the low will stall out, the associated
cold front is expected to continue pushing southeast, moving through
central North Carolina around sunset Tuesday night. Modest wind
shear will be present as the front moves through, although the
amount of available instability will be dependent on the exact
timing that the front moves through. With a deep layer of dry air
well above the surface, the greatest potential for severe weather
will come from downbursts. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center
is also showing the potential for large hail primarily north and
west of the Triangle and a minimal chance of a tornado north and
east of the Triangle. Much of the area is also under a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Ahead of the
cold front, Tuesday may be the warmest day of the week, with most
locations having highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Monday...

TAF period: A small area of thunderstorms is currently moving
through RDU at the start of the TAF period, although the cluster`s
east end is decaying and will likely miss RWI, and the entire
cluster should dissipate before reaching FAY. So far this has
resulted in a brief wind gust and IFR visibilities at RDU. As for
flight restrictions outside of precipitation, with little change in
air mass, have essentially gone with a persistence forecast from
last night, although model guidance is widely varying in its
forecast coverage of fog/stratus. Anywhere from MVFR to LIFR
conditions appear to be possible. VFR conditions are expected after
sunrise, and while there should be a modest area of showers and
thunderstorms across eastern North Carolina, it appears that the
bulk of the coverage should remain to the east of RWI and have kept
that terminal`s forecast dry.

Outlook: Fog/stratus will be possible again Tuesday morning,
although it appears there will be a greater likelihood for flight
restrictions away from INT/GSO. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms appears likely Tuesday afternoon at INT/GSO/RDU and
Tuesday evening at RDU/RWI/FAY. Flight restrictions could be
possible Wednesday morning anywhere that receives modest rainfall on
Tuesday, then dry VFR conditions are forecast through Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...Green