Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXUS62 KRAH 011025
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 258 AM Wednesday...

* Rain chances late Sat night into Sun have sped up by several
  hours, which could impact prefrontal instability potential Sun.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 258 AM Wednesday...

1) Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban
remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until
further notice.

2) An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the far NW
Piedmont late today into the evening.

3) After mainly dry conditions Thu, isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms are possible mainly in the western Piedmont on
Fri/Sat. More widespread showers and storms are expected from early
Sun through Sun night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 258 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban
remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning
until further notice.

NC forestry officials remain concerned about the very dry fuel
moistures, breezy winds, and relative humidities in the 35-45
percent range.

Anomalous ridging will continue across the SE US and western
Atlantic effectively blocking any rainy systems from reaching our
region for the foreseeable future. In addition, the antecedent
dryness and continued breezy and unseasonably warm weather will keep
forestry officials much busier than usual. The statewide burning
band remains in place. SW winds 10-20 mph today will occasionally
gust to 25 mph. Highs will reach in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points
do show promise, forecast to creep upward into the mid 50s to lower
60s with minimum relative humidities only dropping into the 40s for
the most part.

Looking ahead to Thursday, increased fire danger may persist,
although to a lesser degree, given that winds will be a bit lower,
relative humidities a bit higher and green up continues.

Another increased fire danger statement for Thursday will be
discussed later today.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated PM showers/thunder are possible across the
far NW Piedmont late day with origins over the mountains.

Continued southwesterly moisture/thermal advection will support
unseasonably warm temperatures (lower to mid 80s) and limited
diurnal mixing/lowering of afternoon dew points (upper 50s to low
60s). This will likely result in seasonably high instability (500-
1500 MLCAPE) over a majority of the Piedmont to the NC Foothills by
Wed afternoon. Although convective temperatures may be met anywhere
in this area and result in a few towering cumulus and an isolated
shower chance, most hi-res guidance suggests the bulk of the
convective chances/coverage will initially develop over the high
terrain to our W and NW  and move NE into the far NW Piedmont and SW
VA late afternoon and early evening hours before dissipating.
Otherwise, the chance of showers is less than 10 percent.


KEY MESSAGE 3... After mainly dry conditions Thu, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms are possible mainly in the western
Piedmont on Fri/Sat. More widespread showers and storms are expected
from early Sun through Sun night with a cold frontal passage.

On Thursday, the anomalous mid-level ridge will re-amplify over the
northeast US as the center retrogrades closer to the Carolina coast.
This setup will yield increasing subsidence and lower rain chances.

The center of the ridge will then migrate further east on Friday and
Saturday, but convection will largely again be focused along the
mountains, possibly spilling east into our western areas each
afternoon and evening. Additional convection may be possible in our
southern areas along the inland penetrating sea breeze.

Guidance is in good agreement pushing a cold front into our area
Sunday, with widespread rain and isolated storms convection likely
ahead of it. The timing of the front differs, however, and thus not
sure how much of a severe threat we may have especially if the
passage is earlier in the day. However, bulk-layer shear is expected
to increase significantly and as such isolated strong to severe
storms may be possible (especially if the frontal passage lags into
the afternoon/evening).

Conditions behind the front on Monday and Tuesday will turn much
cooler with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower-to-mid-40s. The
region should also be largely free of precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to dominate much of the 12z TAF period
across central NC. Surface winds have remained up at 10 to 15 kt and
this has kept the threat of LLWS down. The period around sunrise
may present some LLWS as surface winds will likely be at the lowest
at that time. Also, there is a slight chance of a late day shower at
KINT and possibly KGSO, but the chance is only about 15 percent.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the week
given the large and powerful ridge aloft off the SE coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 90/1910
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010

April 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KFAY: 90/1974

April 3:
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 63/2016
KRDU: 67/2016

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett