Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS62 KRAH 041934
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
334 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

*  Nothing significant

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

1) Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected
Sunday along a pre-frontal trough and cold front. A Marginal risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe storms with damaging wind gusts remains,
especially where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization may
occur from the eastern Piedmont ewd to the coast Sunday afternoon-
early evening.

2) Cooler temperatures next week may result in the potential for
frost/freeze headlines Tuesday/Wednesday nights.

3) The potential for heightened fire weather concerns returns next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
are expected Sunday along a pre-frontal trough and cold front. A
Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms with damaging wind
gusts remains, especially where pockets of stronger heating and
destabilization may occur from the eastern Piedmont ewd to the coast
Sunday afternoon-early evening. QPF of 0.25" to locally around 0.75".

A mid/upr-level cyclone will lift across the upr Great Lakes
tonight, while a trailing shortwave perturbation now over srn AB/SK
will dig across the nrn Plains and mid MS Valley. The trailing
feature will then lift quickly newd across the upr OH Valley and nrn
Middle Atlantic through 00Z Mon. Net, 40-60 meter 500 mb height
falls will result across cntl NC from late tonight through much of
Sunday night, while related, swly flow through the mid-levels will
gradually strengthen through the 35-50 kt range, but with the
stronger ranges of that flow that will likely exist just behind the
warm/moist sector over e-cntl and ern NC. Preceding those features,
a convectively-amplified mid-level trough and band of vorticity
maxima, related to a large area of deep convection and trailing
stratiform rain now stretching from the mid-South to south-cntl TX,
will progress into the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas by 12Z Sun
and then reach the srn Middle Atlantic coast by around 00Z Mon. That
trough and related mid-level moist/cloud band, and probable remnants
of upstream convection, will likely modulate instability and forcing
influences over the warm/moist sector over cntl NC.

At the surface, a synoptic cold front will extend through, or just
west of, the Blue Ridge at 12Z Sun, then progress ewd and into the
nw Piedmont during the afternoon and the remainder of cntl NC
through early to mid-evening. Preceding the front and with lesser
predictability, the remnants of an upstream QLCS and associated
composite outflow will probably be in the process of moving into the
srn/wrn Piedmont around 12Z Sunday. While it remains unclear to what
degree this feature and convection will be maintained as it
progresses ewd throughout day, the most likely scenario will be for
continued weakening of this convective/precipitation band as it
progresses into a diurnal minimum of instability during the morning
hours, with probable redevelopment in a differential heating zone
and subtle surface trough/confluence axis as it progresses into a
diurnally-destabilizing environment over e-cntl and ern NC through
the afternoon-evening. This activity will likely occur in an
environment characterized by weaker mid-level flow noted above, and
effective shear magnitudes of perhaps 30-35 kts, amid generally
unidirectional flow. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts may
nonetheless result from the most intense cells, particular where
pockets of stronger surface heating and steeper low-level lapse
rates may occur. Behind this activity and along/immediately ahead of
the advancing synoptic front, forcing for ascent will be focused and
mid-level flow stronger. However, instability will likely be lower
there from cooler/less warm surface temperatures in the wake of the
earlier day convection and clouds; and as such, a shallow band of
frontal, probably sub-severe convection will result and progress ewd
across cntl NC through the evening.

While rainfall amounts will likely average a quarter to half inch
over cntl NC, localized maxima of around three quarters of an inch
or more will result along the track of stronger and more sustained
cells, most likely from the ern Piedmont/Sandhills through the
Coastal Plain. And some areas that get grazed or missed from those
cells may rely more on remnant stratiform rain that may only total
several hundredths to a tenth of an inch.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Cooler temperatures next week may result in the
potential for frost/freeze headlines Tuesday/Wednesday nights.

While one cold front will bring the potential for severe weather on
Sunday along with cooler weather for Monday, a second cold front
crossing the region Monday night will bring a reinforcing shot of
cold air to North Carolina. Sunday and Monday night`s lows will be
near normal for early April, in the 40s. However, widespread lows in
the 30s are forecast for Tuesday night, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected Wednesday night. The current forecast still
calls for the wind to be between 5-10 mph Tuesday night, but the
wind could be lighter Wednesday night, which would allow for ideal
radiational cooling conditions and resulting in the temperature
forecast decreasing Wednesday night. Frost/freeze headlines began
across central North Carolina on April 1, and may be needed each of
these two nights.


KEY MESSAGE 3 ... The potential for heightened fire weather concerns
returns next week.

With high pressure settling in behind the second cold front,
relative humidity values will be low across much of the area. All of
central North Carolina will have minimum RH values in the 20s on
Tuesday, with 20s/30s on Wednesday and 30s/40s Thursday through
Saturday. Although wind gusts shouldn`t be above 15-20 mph through
the extended forecast, nearly 90% of the state is under a severe
drought, and low relative humidity values will heighten any
potential fire danger conditions. Sunday will be the only potential
day for rain out of the next seven days, and it will do little to
improve the worsening drought situation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

This morning`s area of MVFR cumulus clouds have lifted to VFR. VFR
conditions should continue to prevail through the day today.
Southwesterly winds are expected to continue gusting to around 22kts
until around sunset, with a low end chance of a few showers in the
Triad this afternoon. Overnight, winds look to remain elevated at
the surface at around 8-12kts, with some gusts in excess of 18kts
remaining possible in the overnight period, reducing the risk of
LLWS. Additionally, MVFR to IFR ceilings will start to move into the
region late tonight, bringing flight restrictions to the Triad and
potentially RDU by sunrise. With these lower ceilings, continued
gusty winds and rain are expected as a cold front approaches and
starts to move through the region. Ceiling restrictions look to hold
off until around 18Z at FAY and RWI tomorrow.

Outlook: Flight restrictions from the cold front are expected to
continue through Sunday evening. VFR conditions should then prevail
Sunday night into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Green
AVIATION...LH
CLIMATE...