Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

091
FXUS62 KRAH 110538
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1235 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

* Remaining above normal through Wed with highs some 10-15
  degrees above normal.

* Rain chances Wed still in the forecast, but amounts are on
  the low end with a tenth of an inch or less.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

1) Staying above normal through Wed with highs 10-15 degrees
above normal. Fire danger concerns are possible over the
northwest Piedmont Wed afternoon.

2) Rain chances with a cold front on Wed are highest in the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central NC.

3) High confidence in a period of at least light to
moderate rain late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details,
such as amounts and areal coverage, remain highly uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Staying above normal through Wed with highs
10-15 degrees above normal. Fire danger concerns are possible
over the northwest Piedmont Wed afternoon

Temperatures will hover above normal today and continue into
tomorrow, even with the passage of a cold front during the early
part of the day. A warm front continues to lift northward this
afternoon and should propel our highs finally some 10-15 degrees
above normal. Highs should reach the low to mid 60s in the east
and mid to upper 60s in the west and southwest. Temperatures
tonight will also be much more mild than the past few weeks with
lows some 15-23 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 40s
to low 50s.

Tomorrow, a pair of cold fronts will move through. The first
one passes through during the mid-morning and early afternoon
hours. This first one will not be as cold as the second one,
which comes in Wed evening, bringing upper 20s to low 30s Wed
night and highs Thu in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Dry downslope
northwest winds with the initial cold front will make for a
gusty but also another warm day with highs once again in the low
60s NW to mid/upper 60s SE. Northwest winds could gust into the
15-25 mph range during the afternoon. As downslope flow and
drier air works in, dewpoints will crash into the 20s over the
Piedmont. A period of marginal increased fire danger may occur
between the late morning hours and early evening in this region
where RH levels dip into the mid/upper 20s. We reached out to
the NCFS and a fire danger statement may be needed. Further
consultation with NCFS will occur later today.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances with a cold front on Wed are
highest in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central NC

The initial cold front pushing through on Wed will continue to
bring a chance of rain, mainly during the morning hours, with
activity skirting off to the southeast in the early afternoon.
The 12z HREF guidance continues to show limited rainfall
amounts. In fact, while precipitation chances are elevated in
the 50 to 80 percent chance range along/east of US-1, forcing
for ascent is not overly impressive. Median and LPMM rainfall
amounts from the HREF suggest a few hundredths of an inch around
the Triangle, to maybe a tenth of an inch in the Sandhills and
southern Coastal Plain. Little if any rain is expected in the
Triad. The 90th percentile shows only a quarter of an inch in
the south. So definitely not a drought buster by any means. Any
rain ends by early afternoon, with sunshine taking hold over
most of the region.


KEY MESSAGE 3... High confidence in a period of at least light
to moderate rain late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details,
such as amounts and areal coverage, remain highly uncertain.

An initially closed southern stream mid/upper level trough off
the CA coast will kick eastward Fri and is expected to shift
across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. NWP
guidance is struggling with its evolution east of the Rockies
and is resulting in a large range of solutions for the
Carolinas. There is still a high degree of confidence in at
least widespread light, and measurable rain, but the moderate to
heavy rainfall footprint remains highly uncertain.

There is still a large spread in the speed and latitudinal
track of this southern stream wave between the faster and
farther north CMC, and the slower and farther south GEFS. The
EPS, AI- GEFS, and AIFS are a good middle ground and show a
reasonable low-end scenario of trace to 0.25" across the
forecast area, greatest amounts towards the NC/SC border.
Probabilities of > 1" have come down slightly from the 12z Mon
models and now range from 25-40%. Probabilities of these higher
amounts remain greatest in the Foothills and western Piedmont
(signaling an upslope pattern) and lowest in the Coastal Plain
into northeast NC.

Alternate scenarios: There has been a general trend south of
the southern stream wave within the NWP guidance which is making
the likelihood of precip lifting north into VA less likely, but
if it trends too far south (the 12z GEFS solution) the
probabilities of > 1" plummet to around 10%. Conversely, if the
track trends towards the mid-ground solutions, reasonable high-
end amounts of 1-2" would be possible basically anywhere across
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Wednesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions overnight, with the
only possibility for ceiling/vis restrictions coming Wednesday
morning with rain showers. Low-level wind shear will continue at all
sites through the overnight hours, diminishing as a cold front moves
through around daybreak from northwest to southeast. High clouds
will drop in height overnight. Removed the TEMPO group for rain at
INT/GSO - there is still a chance of rain, but not high enough to
mention at this time. Have continued with a TEMPO group at RDU for
rain and prevailing rain at FAY/RWI, with the highest chances of
rain being to the south and east. This is also when MVFR conditions
would have the greatest chance. Wind out of the southwest overnight
will veer to the northwest after the cold front moves through, but
have slightly lowered the expected gusts in the afternoon looking at
newest guidance. The atmosphere may remain mixed enough for gusts to
continue this evening, but did not have enough confidence to
continue the overnight gusts at this time.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected until Saturday night into
Sunday, when widespread rain and restrictions will move into the
region from west to east.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/AS
AVIATION...Green