Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

856
FXUS62 KRAH 150526
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
126 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 815 PM Tuesday...

* NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of cntl NC
  through at least Thu, but statements (SPS) will only highlight the
  following day (Wed).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will
promote fire weather concerns through the weekend.

2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high
temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday.

3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal
passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by
much cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near
record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend.

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern
seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the
southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through
Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30
days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the
elevated drought conditions.  As such, fuels have been anomalously
dry for some time.

Winds will remain light Wednesday through Saturday, but with
temperatures increasing into the lower to mid 90s, along with fairly
deep mixing heights (and decreasing PWAT), RH should dip into the
mid to upper 20 percent range each afternoon.  A little bump in
gustiness may be possible Thursday afternoon with the passage of a
dry short-wave and again on Sunday ahead of and behind a cold front.
Overall though, meteorological conditions (combined RH and wind)
should largely remain sub-IFD criteria.  However, given persistent
dry fuels, near record temps, and poor overnight recovery for much
of central NC, the NC Forest Service may request additional IFDs for
portions of central NC to help with messaging their current state-
wide burn ban.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near
record high temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday.

Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the
Southeast US for much of the period from Wednesday through Saturday,
other than a brief dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface,
a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC
during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around
the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and
minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day.
Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are
expected, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Can`t rule out
some mid-90s on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For
reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever
recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section
below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with
dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day,
perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will
be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each
day. Still, several days of highs in the lower-90s could result in
heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and
exercising outdoors.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with
a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday,
followed by much cooler temperatures early next week.

A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the
Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across
central NC on Sunday. This may result in showers and isolated
storms, but at this time both the GFS and ECMWF and most of their
ensembles move it through too early in the day for much instability
to develop (a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at most). This combined with
the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north
mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means only a tenth
of an inch or less. So there will be very little if any relief from
the drought. It will turn significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday
with below-normal temperatures (highs mainly in the upper-60s to
lower-70s, lows in the 40s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
As of 126 AM Wednesday...

Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic
states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW
surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty
with daytime heating again today (10-20kt).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR
conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be
possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC
early Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

April 19: KFAY: 94/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco/Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS
CLIMATE...rah