Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

329
FXUS62 KRAH 052328
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
725 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Both the Heat Advisory and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been
  canceled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

1) Strong to severe storms remain possible across central NC into
mid evening. Mostly dry through tonight, although patchy light rain
is possible toward morning, along with widespread low clouds.

2) Today is the last dangerously hot day of this stretch, with a
brief respite in the heat coming Sun through Tue. But above normal
temperatures return for Wed through Sat, with Thu as the hottest day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong to severe storms remain possible across
central NC into mid evening. Mostly dry through tonight, although
patchy light rain is possible toward morning, along with widespread
low clouds.

Strong to severe storms are ongoing at this hour, with a general
motion to the SE and SSE. As these feed on moderate SBCAPE within an
environment of favorable effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts and high
DCAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg, isolated to scattered discrete cells and
clusters producing 60+ mph winds and 1-2" diameter hail remain
likely. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for all of central NC
until 8 PM EDT, although the severe threat in far NW areas has
diminished as of now.

As these storms and its accompanying frontal zone settle into our
southern areas by mid evening and to our S by midnight, more stable
air and lingering low level moisture will combine to result in a
good chance for low clouds and areas of fog over much of the area
overnight into Sun morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Today is the last dangerously hot day of this
stretch, with a brief respite in the heat coming Sun through Tue.
But above normal temperatures return for Wed through Sat, with Thu
as the hottest day.

As the aforementioned storms drop SE and SSE through the area, the
rain-cooled air will bring a welcomed end to this stretch of
dangerous heat. A cooler and less humid air mass building in from
the N and NE will bring near normal or even slightly below normal
temps for Sun-Tue, as broad but deep mid level troughing over the
Eastern Seaboard gradually lifts ENE off the coast. By mid week, mid
level ridging will build back in from the W, from the mid Miss
Valley, pushing low level thicknesses back above normal. This heat
doesn`t look quite as intense as this most recent heat wave, as the
dewpoints should be a little lower, keeping peak heat index values
even on Thu in the mid 90s to around 100F. Apart from a chance of
light rain Sun, dry weather is expected through at least mid week.
Renewed mid level troughing digging through the Great Lakes region,
Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians late in the week should help
knock temps back down closer to normal by Fri/Sat with increasing
clouds and a return to shower/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 725 PM Saturday...

TAF period: Cannot rule out an isolated shower tonight, but nearly
all precipitation has moved to the North Carolina coastline. VFR
conditions are expected through the evening, but after midnight,
IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to spread from northeast to
southwest. There is high confidence that ceilings that do develop
will be around 400-600 ft; however, there is less confidence in how
widespread cloud cover will be and whether there will be enough sky
cover to form ceilings. Have maintained the inherited ceilings at
all terminals. On Sunday, ceilings will be slow to lift, and
scattered showers are expected in the afternoon. There is the
possibility that coverage of showers will be greater and require
prevailing showers and/or a thunderstorm mention.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail across central NC Sunday
night through much of Thu with generally dry weather, although rain
chances start to ramp back up late Thu with an approaching cold
front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Records within reach this forecast period:

Record High Temperatures:

September 5: KGSO:  97/1954 KRDU:  98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green/Hartfield