Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS62 KRAH 150715
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

* No significant changes to the incoming storm system. Confidence
  remains high in a steady soaking rain areawide, as well as in a
  wide range of high temps today, from the mid-upper 40s NW to the
  low 60s SE.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

1) Confidence remains high in steady soaking and beneficial rainfall
today through tonight, with the highest rain totals expected to be
over the Piedmont. Isolated minor street flooding remains possible.

2) Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through Friday with
mostly dry weather this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence remains high in steady soaking and
beneficial rainfall today through tonight, with the highest rain
totals expected to be over the Piedmont. Isolated minor street
flooding remains possible.

Synoptic overview: An in situ cold air damming/wedge event is likely
today. An amplified mid level shortwave trough and low will shift E
over the lower Miss Valley and Gulf states today, before reaching
the Southeast/Carolinas this evening then pushing E off the Carolina
coast as an open wave late tonight. At the surface, models agree on
a primary low tracking from AR to GA, where it begins to fill as it
crosses through GA this afternoon. A secondary low is expected to
develop on the CAD/wedge front over NE SC or SE NC late this
afternoon, as the front slowly retreats NW into SE portions of
central NC. This secondary low will then track NE over coastal NC
and off the NC coast, where it will deepen further and drag the
wedge front back SE.

Rainfall: Latest model output continues to support a solid area of
rain spreading W to E across the area, with forcing for ascent
fueled in part by mid level height falls, vigorous upper divergence,
and strong/deep moist upglide at 285K-310K. A band of weaker, more
shallow, and elevated upglide will lift NE through mainly the
Piedmont from now through mid morning, generating spotty light rain,
especially over the Triad. Moisture and upglide then deepen by late
morning, with PW still likely to be 225-250% of normal as a plume of
high integrated vapor transport spreads from the Gulf NE into NC.
Steady rain is expected to peak areawide this afternoon and evening,
before a W-to-E departure late tonight, perhaps lasting into very
early Mon morning in the E Coastal Plain. Storm total rainfall is
still expected to be generally around 1 to 1.5", with the higher
totals over the Piedmont where the HREF has a 50%-75% chance of a
storm total rainfall over 1.25", and even 25%-50% chance of more
than 1.5" from Albemarle NE toward Hillsborough. Given our current
severe to extreme drought conditions and limited rainfall across the
area lately, this rain will be largely welcome and beneficial. But
brief heavier rain rates over more urban or poor drainage areas
could still lead to isolated areas of street flooding.

Where this forecast could deviate: While confidence is high that the
Piedmont will see decent rainfall totals, there is a chance that
more organized convection tracking eastward to our S and SE, across
GA/SC and perhaps far SE NC, could rob the better moisture transport
into our S and E sections and result in a slight reduction in
expected rainfall amounts S and E of the Triangle.

Temps: With confidence high that we`ll be in an in situ CAD event,
we continue to favor highs a bit lower than most guidance in the NW
CWA. Expect a range from the mid-upper 40s in the NW and near the VA
border, to the low 60s SE, with a tight gradient in between. -GIH


KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through
Friday with mostly dry weather this week.

A mid-level ridge will build over the Southeast States Tuesday and
Wednesday and persist through the late-week period prior to the next
trough and sfc front which are progged to move across our region on
Friday night and Saturday. This pattern will result in dry weather
with above-normal temps, as H8 temps climb to 10-12+ C above normal
by Friday. Consequently, afternoon highs in the 60s on Tuesday and
mid-60s to lower-70s on Wednesday will further increase to the 70s
for Thursday and Friday, while low temps in the mid-40s to mid-50s
are expected as well each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 107 AM Sunday...

As a strong storm system crosses the region, confidence is high
in deteriorating aviation conditions from W to E today, starting
later this morning. Current VFR conditions across central NC
feature mid and high level clouds and no vsby restrictions.
Patchy light rain is expected to spread into W terminals
(INT/GSO/RDU) 08z-11z, lasting through 14z-16z, but VFR conditions
should still be dominant during this time. But lowering cloud bases
and more steady and heavier rain will spread E through central NC
starting around 16z with cigs/vsbys dropping quickly to MVFR then to
IFR. IFR/LIFR conditions should be dominant starting 17z at INT/GSO,
18z or 19z at RDU, and 19z or 20z at FAY/RWI, all lasting through
the end of the TAF valid period. Light surface winds from the S or
SSW currently will trend to be from the E or NE at 6-12 kts by
afternoon, then from the NE or N after 02z. A period of low level
wind shear can`t be ruled out from late afternoon through the
evening mainly in the SE (FAY) due to a low level jet from the S at
30-40 kt, but confidence is not high. Will monitor.

Outlook beyond 06z Mon: IFR conditions will hold areawide
through much of the rest of the nighttime, but rain will end
from W to E late tonight through mid morning Mon, and a trend
to VFR is expected 09z-12z at INT/GSO/RDU and 12z-15z at
RWI/FAY. VFR conditions are then likely to dominate from Mon
afternoon through Thu. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/NP/JD
AVIATION...Hartfield