Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

038
FXUS62 KRAH 300645
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather
through early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

* Dry and cold conditions expected.

* Marginal fire weather concerns due to low RH and gusty winds.

In wake of Monday`s cold frontal passage, cold and dry air will
remain over the region on Tuesday. This morning, low temperatures
look to drop into the 20s areawide. Maximum temperatures in the
afternoon look to rise into the upper 30s to low 40s north to the
mid 40s south, which is up to 15 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Tonight, minimum temperatures look to be slightly cooler
than this mornings, but still in the 20s for the entirety of the CWA.

Additionally, gusty winds up to around 15-25 mph will continue
through the afternoon. This will be due to a tight pressure gradient
overhead between the deep low pressure system, which is located in
eastern Quebec, and the high pressure system located in the southern
Plains. This will make temperatures feel even colder, with maximum
wind chills this afternoon nearing freezing in some locations in the
north. Additionally, gusty winds will combine with low RH values
this afternoon to create marginally dangerous fire weather
conditions, but will continue to hold off on issuing any products
due to the marginal conditions and cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

* Continued cool and dry conditions.

On New Year`s Eve day, the region should stay within a tight
pressure gradient as another low pressure system and shortwave
energy pass to our north and high pressure is located over the Gulf.
Thus, westerly winds look to gust to around 15-25 mph once again
Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures during the afternoon look to
reach the mid 40s in the northeast to the low 50s in the south. This
is still slightly (2 to 5 degrees) below normal for this time of
year. Temperatures at midnight look to be in the mid-to-upper 30s in
the region with partly cloudy skies and light winds to ring in the
new year! After midnight, temperatures should continue to drop into
the low-to-mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

* Chance of rain Fri evening through Sat evening, with the greatest
  chances across the S.

* Apart from above-normal lows Fri night, temperatures should hold
  within a few degrees of normal into early next week.

As we begin 2026, the large and cold mid level longwave trough
continues to dominate the weather picture over central and eastern
Canada into the eastern CONUS, anchored by a deep low over E James
Bay/Hudson Bay and W Quebec. A strong shortwave trough rotating
through the longwave trough base will swing with a negative tilt
through the St Lawrence Valley, Northeast states, and New England
early Thu, pushing a polar backdoor surface front southward into the
Mid Atlantic region. The LREF ensemble mean suggests that much of
this cold air will hold just N of the VA/NC border Thu, although
passage of the frontal low over New England should lead to veering
surface winds from WSW to NW. We still may see lower thicknesses
dipping into our N, while a modified surface high pressure dome over
the Southeast states will continue to mean mild temps over our S.
Dry weather will continue, especially with a downslope low level
flow, but some jet-induced clouds are possible across the N, along
with gusty winds after mixing begins. Highs Thu will be 45-50 across
the N, nearer the front, with highs 50-57 across the S, within the
mild surface high.

As the shortwave trough shifts over the Canadian Maritimes and NW
Atlantic, we`ll transition to less influence from the polar stream
and greater influence from Pacific waves, including one prominent
wave in particular that tracks from off SoCal early Thu across the
Four Corners through Thu night before amplifying and broadening as
it tracks over the Lower Miss Valley, Deep South, and Southeast
states through Sat night. The various ensemble member systems and
components continue to favor a corresponding surface low that nudges
the Gulf surface high eastward over and E of FL as it moves through
the Mid South and Carolinas, allowing for Gulf-source moisture
return into our region and bringing a chance of rain to portions of
the Carolinas. (Any precip should just be liquid in central NC as
we`ll lack a tap of any particularly cold air or low dewpoints into
the area.) The ensemble clusters were in good agreement yesterday on
pops moving into the SW Fri evening, peaking Sat morning with a good
chance of rain N and likely S and SE, then exiting to the E Sat
night. This is still largely the case, however the LREF 25th
percentile precip shows rain chances just brushing our far S areas,
suggesting that there is a low but non-zero chance that much of the
CWA will stay dry. Will maintain the good chance to low-end likely
pops, peaking Sat morning, with modest amounts, given the upcoming
pattern, but confidence is just medium. Without a tapping of any
polar or subtropical air, we should stay within a category of normal
temps for highs and lows, although Fri night should skew above
normal with the increase in clouds as the wave aloft approaches.
Cloud cover will decrease and exit early Sun morning, with mostly
seasonable temps for Sun-Mon and fair to partly cloudy skies as our
surface pattern becomes more diffuse and as weak PacNW-source mid
level perturbations approach and move through from the WNW. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are likely over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF
period. The main hazard on Tuesday will be gusty winds.
Northwesterly winds look to remain sporadically gusty overnight,
with more frequent gusts likely further north. Wind gusts will
become more frequent again around sunrise as heating will allow for
increased mixing. Winds will remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon,
up to around 15-20 kts, before diminishing around sunset.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday
into Saturday, a low pressure system will bring rain and associated
flight restrictions to the region.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will persist Tuesday
and Wednesday when humidity values will be low, in the 20 to 30
percent range during the late morning through early evening hours.
Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph
each morning through afternoon.

After coordination with the NCFS, no statements are needed at this
time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...LH
FIRE WEATHER...LH/Badgett