Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS62 KRAH 050615
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes from previous forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Monday...

1) Drier today with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures.

2) A dry week is expected. Temperatures will average close to normal
for early October through mid-week, then trend above normal late in
the week. The next chance of rain possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier today with decreasing clouds and warmer
temperatures.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows continued southwesterly flow
across the Carolinas. A deepening upper low over Quebec is drawing
drier air into the western Appalachians with broad northwesterly
flow extending back all the way to the northern Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is making its way through the Ohio Valley with
surface high pressure building southward from Alberta CA. Meanwhile
across NC, the extensive cloud cover that has been locked in place
since Saturday is in the process of breaking up and eroding. While
there is no shortage of high cloud cover within the broad
southwesterly flow aloft, the thicker/lower/more stratiform ceilings
are quickly eroding across the western Piedmont this morning.

For the remainder of the early morning hours, a weak wave moving
through upstate SC could bring a stray sprinkle or shower to the
Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain, although most ob sites are only
showing trace amounts (if that). Given relatively drier air to the
north, most of this precip should remain on the southern fringes of
our CWA before moving offshore after daybreak. There could be some
patchy fog north of this area of precip although given extensive
cloud cover, widespread dense fog isn`t expected.

By late morning/early afternoon, we should see a marked reduction in
cloud cover as the Ohio Valley cold front approaches the area and
broad northwesterly/downslope flow takes hold across NC. This will
also allow temps to warm well into the mid/upper 70s this afternoon
before falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight. A reinforcing
surge of drier air will arrive late tonight, with dewpoints falling
into the mid 40s by daybreak Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry week is expected. Temperatures will average
close to normal for early October through mid-week, then trend above
normal late in the week. The next chance of rain possibly Saturday
and Sunday.

Much drier air associated with surface high pressure building from
the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states will bring mainly
clear/sunny conditions Tuesday into Wednesday night. Lows will dip
into the 40s Tuesday night and around 50 Wednesday night. Highs will
be rather cool in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Reinforcing dry air associated with another high pressure will
spread into the region late Thursday and Friday. The temperatures
will most likely trend into the upper 70s to lower 80s late week,
with lows in the 50s.

The next chance of rain appears to be possibly over the weekend.
There continues to be quite a bit of model spread with the potential
Gulf to SE United States system, with the EC ensemble currently
preferred, which may obviously change with time. As of right now,
the EC depicts higher rain chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday,
with the higher POP in the south and east as is the low pressure
track.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

Widespread cloud cover remains in place across central NC this
morning. Ceilings have improved to VFR at the Triad sites but remain
MVFR at FAY and IFR at RDU/RWI. Ceilings will be fairly steady-
state with little change through daybreak. Meanwhile across southern
VA, some patchy LIFR fog has developed and is slowly advecting
southward. 00Z guidance still suggests a brief period of restricted
vsbys before daybreak at the Triad sites as well as RDU/RWI. My
confidence in exactly how far this fog will spread is low given
extensive cloud cover across NC along with a few kts of wind, but
I will leave  it in the TAFs as-is until I`m confident it won`t
happen.

Conditions should improve area-wide by 15Z and especially by 18Z as
drier air moves in from the north. After that, VFR weather should
prevail through the end of the forecast period.

Outlook: VFR weather expected at all sites through at least Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Badgett
AVIATION...Leins