Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS62 KRAH 210623
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes to the local forecast.  SPC has added a Slight
  Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across VA and far northern
  NC for Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

1) Isolated severe storms possible Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly across the western and northern Piedmont.

2) Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid-
upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of
Highway 1.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated severe storms possible Monday afternoon and
evening, mainly across the western and northern Piedmont.

A strong shortwave trough will cross the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic on Monday, with a trailing cold front poised to cross
central North Carolina Monday evening and overnight. Moist southerly
flow ahead of the cold front will send dew points into at least the
mid-60s, if not around 70, based on some guidance, resulting in the
potential for 1000-2000 MLCAPE, particularly across the western
Piedmont where some mid-level capping will be more apt to erode due
to approaching height falls. The belt of strongest mid-level flow
looks to be maximized north of our area along with the presence of
surface pressure falls and low-level backed flow, but 20-25 knots of
bulk sfc-500mb shear will help support a severe threat. DCAPE should
also be relatively high across the Piedmont, which may further
support some upscale merging of cold pools and a straight-line
damaging wind threat as storms move off the mountains. Currently,
the SPC has all of Central North Carolina in a Marginal Risk, with a
Slight Risk just to our north, and AI NWP Convective Hazard
Forecasts favor mostly the Piedmont where the timing of the synoptic
front and any preceding outflow boundaries interact with peak
diurnal heating.

WPC has western NC in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding, but with
QPF having decreased a bit overall and and area average amounts of
just 0.25-0.50", any minor flooding would be very localized and
likely in urban areas around the Triad.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will
be in the mid-upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly
along and east of Highway 1.

A warm and increasingly humid SW flow returns Mon ahead of the
slowly approaching cold front. While this period of hot weather does
not appear to be especially profound or long-lasting, much of the
eastern half of central NC, including from the Triangle region to
the south and east, are likely to see afternoon heat indices peaking
around 100F. This is also where the NWS experimental Heat Risk
reaches the Major category (level 3 of 4), indicating atypically
high heat that could lead to an increased risk of heat illnesses,
especially for vulnerable populations. People needing to work or
exercise outdoors Mon should take precautions and plan for frequent
shade (or AC) and hydration breaks. Temps on Tue will remain above
normal with elevated humidity, but the increase in clouds should
keep temps and heat indices just under critical values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

A residual continental (dry) airmass over cntl NC will favor VFR
conditions through at least 06Z Mon. Mainly light swly surface winds
may become weakly gusty into the teens kts at times with heating
this afternoon.

Outlook: Return flow moisture will yield a chance of probably MVFR
stratus at FAY Mon morning and scattered convection, with maximum
coverage over the Piedmont, Mon afternoon-evening. A chance of
convection will linger into Tue with the passage of a cold front,
especially from FAY to RWI, though with probably only isolated
coverage owing to increasingly-westerly (downslope) low-level flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022  KFAY: 101/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981  KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024  KRDU: 78/2024  KFAY: 77/2024


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...MWS