Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS62 KRAH 220834
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

* Only a chance of light rain showers tonight and early Friday,
  mainly in the south and east.
* The Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to include all of central
  NC. Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm continues to
  increase, with a greater focus on icing potential.
* Continued high confidence in bitterly cold temperatures from early
  Saturday through the middle of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

1) Moderating temperatures today into Friday ahead of the arctic
front Friday night. Only a chance of light showers night into
Friday. Time to prepare for the winter storm expected this weekend.

2) A Winter Storm Watch now includes all of central NC, with
increasing confidence in significant wintry precipitation from Sat
afternoon through early Mon morning.

3) Extremely cold temperatures and dry conditions are expected
behind the front, lasting into the middle of next week, including
brisk and gusty winds on Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Moderating temperatures today into Friday ahead of
the arctic front Friday night. Only a chance of light showers
tonight into Friday. The amounts will be light, only less than 0.10
and higher probabilities in the SE.

Highs today will return to the 50s. Lows tonight will be in the mid
30s to around 40.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A Winter Storm Watch now includes all of central
NC, with increasing confidence in significant wintry precipitation
from Sat afternoon through early Mon morning.

Overview: Latest models and ensemble members continue to support
passage of an Arctic cold front N to S Fri night, introducing a
frigid air mass as polar high pressure spans the Great Lakes region.
Just aloft, the 850 mb front will dip SSE into the area Fri night
and briefly stall across the Carolinas before slowly nudging back
NNW, a key mechanism affecting precip types. As the surface front
settles well to our S across GA/SC Sat, inverted troughing will
develop from low pressure over the central Gulf coast NNE through E
TN, the precursor to what will likely be a Miller B cyclogenesis
pattern as the secondary low develop off the Carolina coast. Despite
increasing PW spreading in from the SW Sat, precip during the first
half of the day should be light and spotty, as the subcloud layer
remains rather dry (including initially high surface dewpoint
depressions) and the forcing for ascent modest. By late Sat and esp
Sat evening, PW ramps up to 225% to nearly 300% of normal, while
overrunning over NC strengthens with the arrival of the nose of a 35-
50 kt 850 mb SW jet. Upper level forcing for ascent will also
strengthen, with increasing mid level height falls as a phased deep
trough shifts into the central CONUS Sat night/Sun, along with a
couple rounds of jet-induced upper divergence peaking Sat night and
late Sun. Precip will finally wind down late Sun night into early
Mon morning as the low level jet shifts to coastal NC and the
coastal low takes over off the Northeast coast.

Precip evolution: After sparse and light precip early Sat, mainly in
the form of light snow or sleet, as lift and precip rates increase W
to E, the forecast thermal and moisture profiles favor a trend to
mainly moderate snow/sleet N and sleet/freezing rain S, becoming
heavy at times Sat evening/night with a trend to mostly sleet and
freezing rain areawide overnight as the warm nose aloft strengthens.
Models and ensemble means have continued the warming trend noted
yesterday, and as such, by Sun morning we should see the
sleet/freezing rain area shift into the NW Piedmont, with mostly
freezing rain elsewhere, and our far SE may see a shift to just rain
Sun as the warming aloft penetrates to the low levels. Precip should
taper down W to E Sun night, ending as a little light snow. It`s too
early to get specific with amounts of snow/sleet or ice accrual, but
confidence is increasing that much of the area will see significant
wintry precip accumulations that would greatly hamper travel and may
lead to power outages, and even the SE and far S CWA has a high
chance of getting at least a glaze of ice accrual. That said, with
the warming trend in the models, what once appeared to be a major
snowfall event (at least over our N half) looks more likely to be an
icing event, albeit with additional amounts of impactful snow/sleet
over much of the Piedmont. The Winter Storm Watch has been expanded
to include all of central NC, given the high probabilities of at
least advisory-level and perhaps warning-level wintry precip
accumulations. People should start now to make necessary plans to
prepare for a potential significant winter storm, as difficult
travel and power outages are possible. -GIH


KEY MESSAGE 3... Extremely cold temperatures and dry conditions are
expected behind the front, lasting into the middle of next week,
including brisk and gusty winds on Mon.

Extremely cold temperatures and dry weather are expected during and
behind the winter storm, starting Sat and lasting for several days
as a frigid Arctic high with a 1045-1055 mb central pressure extends
over the Midwest and Great Lakes behind the front. Our low level
thicknesses are expected hold around 1250 mb or lower for an
extended time, with the air mass sourced straight out of the Arctic,
and much of the northern and western CWA including the Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain may see sub-freezing temps lasting from late
Fri night to at least Tue afternoon. Overnight lows (especially Mon
night) may approach or exceed daily records, and daily highs may
come close to record low daily maxima as well, especially if we have
a persistent thick glaze of snow/sleet or ice. This extended cold
weather will mean that whatever wintry precip accumulates will stick
around through at least the middle of next week, with very slow
melting or sublimation. A Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold
Watch or Warning may be needed. -GIH


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

There is high confidence in VFR through the 24-hour TAF period.
Ceilings will lower somewhat to around 5 to 8 kft with an
approaching weak cold front, but remain VFR. Winds will generally
remain out of the WSW early then becoming WNW this morning ahead of
a cold front that will push through today.

Outlook: A band of light rain may lead to sub-VFR conditions later
tonight into Fri, with the highest probability at FAY/RWI. This
weekend, confidence continues to increase in a potential winter
storm, which will likely bring wintry precipitation and associated
sub-VFR conditions late Sat and Sun, before VFR conditions return
early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KRDU: 10/1940

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett/Kren