Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS62 KRAH 060548
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
148 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from previous forecast thinking

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 148 AM Tuesday...

1) Dry today, cool tonight.

2) A dry week mid to late week is expected. Temperatures will warm
to above normal from Wednesday through Saturday. The next chance of
rain returns this weekend, but most of it may hold off until Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 148 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry today, cool tonight.

A dry cold front was located over southern VA this morning,
identified not only by a southward progressing pre-frontal stratocu
deck, but also by decreased dewpoints in the 40s. Ahead of the front
across central NC, lingering mid/upper 50s dewpoints and light/calm
winds have supported some patchy fog since late Monday evening.
Between the southward progressing stratocu deck, increased mixing,
and the subsequent arrival of lower dewpoints, it`s expected that
fog should gradually dissipate as the morning goes on.  I`ll keep a
mention of patchy fog in the forecast through daybreak but
conditions should gradually improve.

All in all, it should be a quiet weather day once the front moves
through. Winds may briefly gust this morning as the BL deepens and
taps into the 25-30kt 925mb winds, but this should rapidly diminish
through the day. It`ll be cooler today with temps generally in the
upper 60s (north) to mid 70s (south). The more noticeable cooldown
will come tonight. Between clear skies and light/calm winds, look
for lows to easily bottom out in the low to mid 40s, if not upper
30s in the normally cooler/protected areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry week mid to late week is expected.
Temperatures will warm to above normal from Wednesday through
Saturday. The next chance of rain returns this weekend, but most of
it may hold off until Sunday.

The dry and cool surface high pressure will move off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. A dry reinforcing cold
front will slip through NC late Thursday and Thursday night.
Therefore, sunny and dry conditions are expected Wednesday with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. As the winds become SW at 10-15
mph ahead of the front Thursday, there will be little moisture to
work with. Expect mainly sunny skies and warming temperatures into
the mid 80s. Record daily highs are in the lower to mid 90s, so they
are not in play. It will be slightly cooler behind the front Friday
with highs around 80. Lows will be mostly in the lower to mid 50s
this week, warmest Friday morning (near 60 in some locations).

The next chance of showers appears to be over the weekend. There
continues to be quite a bit of model spread with the potential Gulf
to SE United States system, with the EC ensemble continued to be
preferred, which may obviously change with time. As of right now,
the EC depicts higher rain chances have moved 6-12 hours later than
previously forecast. The period between Saturday night through
Monday morning appear to be when the most significant rain will
fall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 148 AM Tuesday...

Patchy fog has developed across central NC ahead of the approaching
cold front, which is still positioned over VA as of 05Z. RWI has
been the only TAF site directly affected but a number of other sites
have reported vsbys of 1SM or lower. Meanwhile, a VFR stratocu deck
around 3500ft has formed immediately ahead of the front and is
migrating southward. Between the stratocu and some increased mixing
just off the surface with the southward progressing 925mb front,
vsbys are rapidly improving. I`ll leave an hour or two of IFR/LIFR
vsbys in the RWI TAF, otherwise VFR weather should prevail at RWI
and elsewhere for the morning hours. The stratocu deck will
eventually move through NC, reaching all sites between 06Z-12Z, but
this will quickly mix out and dissipate by late morning.
Clear/mostly clear skies to follow this evening into Wednesday
morning. With substantially lower dewpoints forecast from this
morning onward, the threat of fog should be nil early Wednesday
morning.

As for winds, all sites should see borderline LLWS conditions
through daybreak as the 925mb front slides through the area. Between
surface winds around 5-8kts and 925mb winds around 30kts, LLWS
should be marginal and I`ll keep it out of the TAFs unless surface
winds remain calm.

Outlook: VFR weather expected through the first part of the weekend.
Increased moisture arriving this weekend could result in periods of
non-VFR weather late Saturday into early next week although
timing/confidence in the specifics is low at this point. Rain
chances appear to be highest on Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Badgett
AVIATION...Leins