Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS62 KRAH 291736
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
136 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

* Trending warmer with a reduction in precipitation chances later in
  the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

1) Increased Fire Danger remains in effect today, and likely again
Monday and perhaps Tuesday. A state-wide fire ban remains in place
and prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

2) Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures
expected, with mainly dry conditions expected through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Increased Fire Danger remains in effect today, and likely again
Monday and perhaps Tuesday. A state-wide fire ban remains in place
and prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

An increased fire danger statement remains in effect until 8 pm this
evening. Dewpoints continue to mix out this afternoon, presently in
the upper teens to lower 20s over most of central NC, producing RH
values in the 15 to 25 percent range, lowest across the western
Piedmont. Thankfully, wind gusts are not as high, but will increase
in the 15-20 mph range. Regardless, the fire danger statement
remains in effect for all of central NC. Remember, the NCFS has
issued a state-wide ban on open burning until further notice.

On Monday and Tuesday, as the high continues to shift east to near
Bermuda, a stronger return flow will set in, but moisture levels
will be slow to recover. With highs expected to range from the mid
70s to low 80s, and wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph, will promote an
increased fire danger potential. Currently the NCFS is concerned
with RH values of 40 percent or less, which includes most of central
NC Monday and a portion of the area on Tuesday. Dewpoints are
expected to mix out to the middle 40s on Monday and low/mid 50s on
Tue, in agreement with statistical MOS and the regional RDPS, which
handles these situations well. As such, we are planning another fire
danger statement for Mon and will reassess for Tue after consulting
with NCFS.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures expected,
with mainly dry conditions expected through late week.

As surface high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast,
southerly surface winds should return by Monday and continue through
mid-week. This will allow temperatures to return to above normal on
Monday and rise to about 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Wednesday.
In terms of high temperatures, this is seen by a return to the 70s
on Monday, increasing to the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Low to mid
80s are then generally expected through the weekend. Lows during
this timeframe will return to the mid 50s to low 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers may be possible each day Wednesday
through Saturday as a few shortwaves look to pass north of the
region and moisture increases. Highest chances generally look to be
in the western and northern portions of the CWA. Rainfall totals
during this time should be light, with the 50th percentiles of the
GEFS and European ensemble showing generally less than 0.5 inch of
rain total through Sunday morning. Better rain chances will come
Sunday night into Monday as a cold front looks to approach and move
through the region sometime in this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the critical 6-9 hr window
of the 18z TAFs. Mostly scattered 4-6 kft stratocu will continue to
develop northwestward from the Carolina Coastal Plain this
afternoon/evening. A ceiling will be most probable at the Triad
terminals (GSO/INT) late tonight into Mon morning. SCT/BKN stratocu
from 3-6 kft is expected to develop at all terminals of the Piedmont
by early Mon afternoon with diurnal heating.

Outlook: Continued moisture return around what will be a persistent,
Bermuda high regime through the upcoming week, will favor a chance
of sub-VFR ceilings especially over the wrn Piedmont by Tues. Rain
chances will otherwise be low.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Helock
AVIATION...AS/MWS