Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

544
FXUS62 KRAH 131047
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Slight risk of Flash Flooding across SW Piedmont.

* Dangerous Heat increasingly favored late week (Wed-Sat).

* Rain chances more towards late weekend.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Monday...

1) Slow moving storms pose a localized flash flooding threat today,
primarily across the southwest Piedmont, while persistent clouds
keep temperatures unseasonably cool.

2) Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm chances late in
the week and weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Slow moving storms pose a localized flash flooding
threat today, primarily across the southwest Piedmont, while
persistent clouds keep temperatures unseasonably cool.

A lingering surface boundary south of NC will maintain extensive
cloud cover and on-and-off showers today, with precipitation finally
tapering off late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds will
start light from the northeast at 5 to 10 mph this morning before
veering to the east by the afternoon. The primary threat today is
heavy rainfall, driven by unseasonably high precipitable water
values hovering between 2 and 2.25 inches. Precipitation chances
will be highest across the south and western portions of the area,
particularly through the early morning hours.
While the SPC has kept Central NC in general thunder risk, limited
instability with SBCAPE values remaining less than 1000 J/kg will
generally restrict widespread severe potential. Instead, the main
convective threat will be slow moving, heavy rainfall producers that
could trigger flash flooding. Thus, WPC has placed portions of the
southwest Piedmont in a Slight Risk for flash flooding, with a
Marginal Risk extending across the rest of the north and eastern
areas.
Persistent rain and cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures well
below average. Highs are expected to top out only in the mid/upper
70s for most of the region, though the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
should reach the low/mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures will drop into
the mid 60s across the NW, while the southeast will see lows in the
upper 60s to near 70 by Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm
chances late in the week and weekend.

Guidance continues to indicate hot weather returning to the region
Wednesday as ridging extends into the area from the Mid MS valley
region. This anomalous ridging gradually shifts to the east through
the latter part of the week, with a greater number of ensemble
scenarios indicating the ridge builds into portions of the TN
Valley. If that trend is to continue, an extended stretch of
dangerous heat is possible, with triple digits in some areas of the
Triangle and Sandhills. The ridge placement would favor a somewhat
downslope flow, further enhancing the warming. The 850-mb
temperatures Wed-Fri could range from 21-23 degC, near the daily
maximum for this time of year. Right now, it appears the hottest
days will be Thursday and Friday with widespread mid and upper 90s,
to near 100 in the Triangle. Heat indices could range from 102 to
108 along and east of the US-1 corridor. The heat is likely to
continue through the weekend, with highs still in the middle 90s to
some upper 90s. The HeatRisk ranges from a level 3 to 4 along and
east of US-1 during the Thu-Sun period.

As we head into the weekend, it appears ensemble guidance is
indicating a trend of better storm chances Sat-Sun. The ridge is
expected to break down a little as troughing and northwest flow sets
in. That should allow for an uptick in storm chances along a
southward approaching frontal boundary. Confidence in overall
details though remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM Monday...

Adverse weather conditions will continue through all of Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be slow moving
over central NC through the day. This morning, there is on going
heavy rain moving across the KINT and KGSO terminals along with and
area of heavy rain north/west of KRWI. Low Ceilings will continue to
lower into the IFR/LIFR range with low stratus in most areas.

For the rest of the day expect widespread IFR conditions with areas
of showers and isolated thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall at
times. Low stratus will linger along with periods of VFR to IFR
vsbys in between the showers/storms. Sub-VFR cigs are likely to
persist into tonight, especially south and west of KRWI. The chance
of showers and storms will decrease and shift south with time late
this evening into early Tuesday morning.

Looking beyond: Significant improvements will occur Tuesday in all
areas as VFR conditions should dominate Tue-Fri, although scattered
afternoon thunderstorm chances may start to return by Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 16:
KGSO: 99/1915
KRDU: 101/1887
KFAY: 103/1937

July 17:
KRDU: 100/1887
KFAY: 102/1932

July 18:
KGSO: 97/1986
KFAY: 103/1942

July 19:
KGSO: 98/1977
KRDU: 101/1902
KFAY: 101/2002


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 16:
KGSO: 75/2024
KRDU: 78/2024
KFAY: 78/1992

July 17:
KGSO: 75/2025
KRDU: 80/1887
KFAY: 77/2019

July 18:
KGSO: 76/1986
KRDU: 80/2025
KFAY: 77/2025

July 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KRDU: 80/1942
KFAY: 77/2023



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/AK
AVIATION...CA/Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH