Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS62 KRAH 240710
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered daytime high temperatures for Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

1) CAD wedge slowly tries to erode today. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will be possible again today in a low
predictability regime.

2) Warm and unseasonably humid/muggy through mid-week, with above
average chances of rain/convection

3) Trending milder and progressively drier, with respect to both
humidity and rain chances late week into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... CAD wedge slowly tries to erode today. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible again today in a low
predictability regime.

The latest surface analysis reveals the stubborn CAD wedge extends
across much of NC, with the exception of the coast. The boundary
also stretches into upstate SC, moving little in the past 24 hours.
The 00z GSO sounding also indicated a strengthening of the inversion
in the lowest few kft. With that, the main forecast challenge will
be how much the wedge boundary will erode, and if so, how far north
it will do so. Much of the global and regional, as well as high-res
guidance, indicates that as east-southeasterly flow develops around
the edges of the retreating wedge, this should help to at least
favor breaks in the low clouds. However, the flow is fairly weak
from the surface to 850-mb, around 5 to 10 mph at best. If any light
rain or patchy drizzle can develop in the low-level WAA regime, that
could allow the wedge to hold in place longer than anticipated
through diabatic effects. The latest forecast trended lower with
highs, from the low to mid 70s NW to low 80s SE. As we saw
yesterday, these could bust too warm, or too low if the wedge breaks
earlier than expected. We think the wedge should erode in our
southern zones, but it becomes a bit tricker north and west of US-
1/US-64, where low clouds may persist longer than anticipated.

Storm chances will persist again this afternoon and evening, albeit
with low predictability. The best chance for isolated to scattered
activity would appear to be along the Sandhills and Coastal Plain,
where the wedge will erode and instability can be realized. A sea-
breeze may also provide lift in this region. Subtle disturbances in
the southwest mid-level flow will additionally support isolated
storm activity elsewhere, but confidence on coverage is not great.
If the wedge completely erodes as the HREF suggests, storms may
reach the Piedmont late in the evening. While most storm activity
should wane by midnight with loss of heating, remnant MCVs upstream
could favor patchy showers overnight across the west.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm and unseasonably humid/muggy through mid-week,
with above average chances of rain/convection

Between a sub-tropical high sw of Bermuda and a trough that will
reload over the srn Plains and lwr MS Valley, a plume of PWs around
2" and 150-190% of normal, and MCVs, will be directed from the Gulf
to the Carolinas and srn Middle Atlantic through Wed.

At the surface, a front will retreat from NC nwd and into the
Virginias by Wed, then probably settle swd and through NC again on
Thu. Some degree of a theta-e gradient, diabatically-reinforced and
modulated by episodes of convection across the Southeast and
Carolinas, will likely remain across the warm sector to the south of
that front.

Influence from the forcing features amid the deep moist axis noted
above will favor above average probabilities of rain/convection, but
with low predictability of footprints of heaviest rain of generally
1-3", locally higher. It will also be unseasonably warm and humid,
with temperatures warming well into the 80s through Wed and
accompanied by surface dewpoints in the upr 60s to around 70 F, and
with associated low temperatures not much lower than those surface
dewpoint values.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Trending milder and progressively drier, with
respect to both humidity and rain chances late week into next weekend

The sub-tropical high initially off the South Atlantic coast (sw of
Bermuda) will weaken and retreat into the Caribbean, as a negative
height anomaly and surrounding trough develop across Atlantic
Canada, another progresses slowly into the Great Basin, and a Rex
block develops between the two and across cntl NOAM (centered over
the MS Valley) through late week. That blocking pattern, and mostly
nwly flow aloft over the Middle Atlantic, will then likely persist
through next weekend and probably beyond into the following week.

At the surface, a nrn stream cold front will progress across the
Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic and may ultimately overtake the lead
front across the Carolinas by Thu night-Fri, with following weak
high pressure and a drier airmass that will likely infiltrate cntl
NC by Fri. A reinforcing front and following anticyclonic flow and
cP air will then probably settle across the Middle Atlantic and into
cntl NC next weekend, beneath and downstream of the aforementioned,
persistent blocking pattern aloft.

Although our official forecast, populated from the National Blend of
Models and WPC, maintains solid chance to low likely PoP Fri-Sun,
that time period will likely prove mainly dry, as the pattern
described above should shunt the deep moist axis and frontal zones
south and southwest of cntl NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

Widespread LIFR conditions are present across most, if not all, of
central NC. The CAD wedge remains in place, extending into western
NC and portions of upstate SC. We can expect these LIFR conditions
to persist at least until mid-morning Sun with the lack of any
appreciable airmass change. There remains a signal for fog at nearly
any terminal, though highest confidence is in the northern sites of
GSO/INT/RDU/RWI. The majority of the high-res ensemble data suggest
that as southerly flow returns, the CAD wedge will gradually try to
erode from south to north. Overall confidence on how far north it
erodes is not great given how models have struggled with this
airmass over the past several days. Add to it that drizzle and light
precipitation falling into the column has strengthened the
inversion. With that said, expect a gradual improvement in ceilings,
from IFR-MVFR at the northern sites to MVFR/VFR at FAY. This
forecast package leans more on the pessimistic side so there is a
chance ceilings may improve faster than presently expected.

As for storm chances, confidence is not great, but feel FAY has the
best chance of seeing thunder along the eroding wedge and/or sea-
breeze. RDU and RWI also have a threat but with lower confidence due
to the uncertainty with the eroding wedge boundary.

Outlook: Another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings should occur into Monday
morning, with patchy light rain or drizzle. Daily chances for
showers and storms will continue through the period, along with
morning fog or stratus.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006

May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

May 29: KRDU: 72/2012 KFAY: 73/2018

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/MWS
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH