Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS62 KRAH 221849
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
249 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

* An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 3 PM EDT to
  10 PM EDT on Monday across the Piedmont and Sandhills of central
  NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

1) Record highs possible this afternoon with an airmass typical of
late June to early July. Slight chance of showers mainly along and
east of I-95 accompanying a cold frontal passage Monday. Minimal
rain expected till late next week.

2) An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 3 PM EDT to
10 PM EDT on Monday across the Piedmont and Sandhills of central NC
due to a combination of breezy post-frontal winds and low relative
humidities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Record highs possible this afternoon with an
airmass typical of late June to early July. Slight chance of showers
mainly along and east of I-95 accompanying a cold frontal passage
Monday. Minimal rain expected till late next week.

Temperatures have been slow to climb across the northern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain thus far today given lingering cloudiness
from this morning`s showers.  Elsewhere, temps have rose into the
lower to mid 80s. Still expecting a surge into the upper 80s/lower
90s everywhere the next few hours given consistent swly flow. Expect
a little gustiness (up to 20 to 25 mph at times) to pick up this
afternoon before subsiding some overnight.

Further upstream, a strong sfc cold front will generate convection
over the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Latest CAM guidance
has largely trended towards diminishing these showers/storms before
reaching us overnight. However, as the front passes south through
central NC Monday morning/early afternoon, some instability may form
and support a few showers or an isolated storm along the front. Best
chances for any rain remain along and east of I-95.

Beyond Monday, flow aloft will largely remain wnwly promoting dry
conditions for much of next week which isn`t ideal for our ongoing
drought.  The median ensemble total precipitation through next
Monday only highlights a few tenths of an inch of rain across much
of the area.  Best chances appear to be Friday/Saturday with another
strong frontal passage.


KEY MESSAGE 2... An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect
from 3 PM EDT to 10 PM EDT on Monday across the Piedmont and
Sandhills of central NC due to a combination of breezy post-frontal
winds and low relative humidities.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through central NC in the
late morning and early afternoon on Monday. High temperatures will
reach the mid-70s to lower-80s, and model forecast soundings depict
mixing up to around 850 mb with ample dry air above that behind the
front. This along with NNW downsloping flow will help dew points
crash into the 30s and eventually 20s, resulting in RH values
dropping to 25-30% across the Piedmont and Sandhills from mid-
afternoon to early evening. Soundings also indicate post-frontal NNW
gusts could reach up to 20-25 mph at times. Some light rain fell
yesterday across western and southern parts of the area, but totals
were mainly around a tenth of an inch or less, so fuels continue to
be dry. While winds look too low for Red Flag Warning criteria, all
of these factors will result in an increased fire danger risk on
Monday in the Piedmont and Sandhills from 3 PM to 10 PM. The SACC
outlook continues to highlight that area in a high risk for
significant fire potential. There will be a sharp west-to-east
gradient in low-level moisture across central NC, so not expecting
as much fire weather concern in the Coastal Plain where RH values
are expected to only drop to the 30-45% range and there is a slight
chance of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 144 PM Sunday...

Sswly flow is starting to pick up a bit this afternoon. Surface
gusts between 18-24 kt will be favored until 22-23z, after which
sustained winds from the south-southwest will hover in the 8-11 kt
range. A 40-45 kt LLJ will develop tonight between 06z-12z Mon and
favor a period of LLWS at RDU, FAY, RWI. This may end up being
mechanical turbulence, but opted for LLWS given expected decoupling
of surface winds.

The sfc cold front will push through central NC mid to late Monday
morning. A few scattered showers may impact KRWI/KFAY during this
time.  Post-frontal wnwly gusts of 20 to 25 kts will then be
possible into the afternoon hours before subsiding in the evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions are mostly expected in the extended until
possibly Friday when our next frontal system is expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 85/1948 KRDU: 89/1907 KFAY: 88/1948

March 23: KFAY: 86/1948

March 27: KFAY: 87/1946


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 63/1948 KFAY: 63/1948

March 23: KFAY: 64/1952

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007 KFAY: 65/1949

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/Luchetti
AVIATION...Luchetti/Kren
CLIMATE...RAH