Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS62 KRAH 242309
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
710 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 710 PM Tuesday...

* Added information about frost potential tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 710 PM Tuesday...

1) Patchy to areas of frost are possible mainly in rural areas
tonight.

2) Another cold front will bring mostly light rain, seasonably gusty
winds, and roller coaster temperatures Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 710 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy to areas of frost are possible mainly in
rural areas tonight.

A cool air mass will continue to extend over the area through
tonight, as a gradually modifying Canadian-source high centered near
the Mid Atlantic coast pushes offshore. Current dewpoints are mostly
in the upper teens to upper 20s, and while some recovery is likely
this evening, the potential for good radiational cooling is fairly
high, with only a veil of thin mid-high clouds passing over the area
along with very light to calm winds beneath the surface ridge.
Patchy to areas of frost are possible overnight mainly in rural
areas of the Piedmont and N Coastal Plain, where the HREF shows a 60-
90% chance of lows tonight under 35F. While the true growing season
has not yet begun in most of central NC, people are still advised to
take necessary actions to protect sensitive plants and agriculture
in these rural locations.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Another cold front will bring mostly light rain,
seasonably gusty winds, and roller coaster temperatures Friday into
Saturday.

Latest 12z guidance remains in good agreement of the synoptic
pattern through mid-week with the only highlight coming from another
strong cold frontal passage Fri through Fri night. Amidst mostly
zonal flow over the CONUS, mean troughing over the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to shed lobes of weak mid-level disturbances, some of
which are expected to amplify as they progress into the Eastern
CONUS by this weekend.

The next chance for measurable precipitation comes Fri into Fri
night. Central NC will be displaced south of the better DPVA over
the Mid-Atlantic and only experience meager H5 height falls. Primary
forcing will come from a combination of low-level FGEN and weak
perturbations rippling through a seasonably moist band of moisture
along and behind the front. This should result in a medium-high
probability of light stratiform rain behind the front, but low
rainfall amounts (< 0.5"). Showers and some isolated storms can`t be
ruled out along and ahead of the front as mid-level lapse rates
increase to > 7C/km from a remnant EML over the High Plains, but
could also provide a cap and prevent any deep convection from
developing as boundary layer moisture lacks Gulf moisture influence.

Surface conditions will likely become seasonably breezy ahead of the
front (southwesterly wind gusts around 25 mph on Fri) and especially
behind the frontal passage (northerly 25 to 35 mph on Sat). If these
winds can overlap areas of low relative humidity, adverse fire
behavior would be possible given the ongoing drought and dry
conditions as well as lack of hardwood forest canopy.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hrs at central NC
terminals, with high confidence. Mid and high cloudiness will
continue to pass over the area, most notably from this evening
through daybreak, with mostly high thin clouds Wed. No vsby
restrictions are expected. Light and variable winds likely tonight
through much of Wed morning, then from the SSE or S at 5-10 kts the
rest of Wed.

Looking beyond 00z Thu, VFR conditions are likely to hold into Fri,
then an approaching cold front will bring a chance for sub-VFR
conditions and light rain chances from late Fri into early Sat
morning. VFR conditions should then return for late Sat through Sun.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 60/2007
KFAY: 65/1949

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH