Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

175
FXUS62 KRAH 131819
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Refreshed forecast based on recent guidance. Updated aviation as
well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong cold front will bring an increased chance for severe
storms on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front will bring an increased chance for severe
storms on Monday.

On Monday a potent upper longwave trough looks to swing into a
negative tilt and sling a strong 50-60 kt LLJ along and ahead of
the translated sfc cold front. While the deep layer bulk shear
is impressive, the low level shear really stands out as strong
with the 0-3 km layer indicating near 50 kts shear and 300 m2/s2
SRH. MUCAPE looks to be on the order of near 1000 J/kg so that
would be plenty of instability to raise concern of some intense
convective triggering and downdrafts. Given the shear profile
storm modes could be some discrete supercells or QLCS with both
damaging wind and tornado threats. It is not very often when SPC
has a 30 percent risk (essentially Enhanced Risk) for severe
weather on Day 4 and this is out for almost the entire CWA.
Timing should be more fine tuned as we get closer and the CAM
guidance starts to cover possible convection evolution, but it
looks like a good chance for a daytime passage, which would more
likely involve diurnal destabilization.

Thermal profiles quickly cool on the back edge of this system
which could allow for a quick transition to some snow showers
from west to east late Monday afternoon into evening.

Please monitor the forecast as more details will be available
over the weekend as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected thru period with dry conditions and
mostly clear skies - perhaps FEW/SCT cirrus skirting part of the
area at times. Forecast is primarily based on wind trends with
initial winds 10-16 kts gusting 22-28 kts out of the south to SW
today then gradually decreasing tonight to under 7 kts. LLWS is
possible for some of the sites including RDU in the 03-08z time
frame. By later Saturday morning winds look to mainly shift out
of the NW near 5 kts or less.


Outlook: Increased moisture could lead to sub-VFR conditions
returning as early as Sunday evening. Gusty winds are also
expected Sunday afternoon into Monday as the next weather system
moves across the region. Severe weather is possible Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO RNK
AVIATION...WFO RNK