Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

724
FXUS62 KRAH 202317
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
617 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm, and bitterly
  cold weather from Saturday into Tuesday, continues to increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

1) Cold and dry weather prevails through Wednesday, with
temperatures moderating through Thursday ahead of the next system.

2) A major winter storm is likely this weekend across all of central
NC, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain all possible precipitation
types. There is still uncertainty on exact timing and snow and ice
amounts, so stay tuned.

3) Extremely cold temperatures are likely Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold and dry weather prevails through Wednesday,
with temperatures moderating through Thursday ahead of the next
system.

Cold Canadian high pressure anchored across the Mid-Atlantic region
today and tomorrow will result in dry weather and cooler
temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s with one more night of lows in the mid/upper teens to low
20s. After the surface high shifts offshore Wednesday afternoon
expect temperatures to moderate with the warmest day of the forecast
being on Thursday with highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A major winter storm is likely this weekend across
all of central NC, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain all possible
precipitation types. There is still uncertainty on exact timing and
snow and ice amounts, so stay tuned.

A strong Arctic cold front will move through on Friday afternoon and
evening. Moisture and isentropic lift along and ahead of the front
will result in some light rain across the area from early morning
into the evening. Amounts are expected to be light, around a tenth
to quarter inch. A remarkably strong ~1050 mb Arctic surface high
moving SE over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will then push
very cold and dry air into the region behind the front. Temperatures
are likely to remain steady or even begin dropping on Friday
afternoon with highs in the mid-40s to lower-50s, then drop into the
upper-teens to mid-20s by Saturday morning as dew points crash into
the single digits and teens. A lull in precipitation appears likely
on Friday night and early Saturday morning as drier air briefly
moves in behind the front.

A vigorous mid-level shortwave or cutoff low will move onshore Baja
California on Saturday, drawing plenty of Pacific moisture into the
Southern US. There will also be a strong influx of Gulf moisture,
and PW values 150-250% of normal are expected across central NC.
Meanwhile a polar stream trough will move across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Strong phasing of the Baja low and southern with
the northern stream trough along with plenty of low-level isentropic
lift will set the stage for plenty of forcing for precipitation,
though differences in guidance remain on the timing and degree of
phasing. A weak surface low will initially develop over the north-
central Gulf, before a secondary low develops off the GA coast on
Saturday night, deepening as it moves NE offshore the coast of the
Carolinas on Sunday. There also remains some uncertainty on the
track of this low, which will affect how much snow vs ice occurs
across the area.

All of the above factors combined with bitterly cold and dry air
continuously being drawn south into the Carolinas from the Arctic
high moving east from the Great Lakes into Upstate NY are likely to
result in a moisture-laden and potentially long lasting winter storm
across central NC from Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will move
in from the west on Saturday morning and afternoon, potentially on
the lighter side initially, with the heaviest likely on Saturday
night and early Sunday, tapering off from west to east sometime
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There is still uncertainty on
timing with the 12z ECMWF a bit slower compared to the GFS. GFS and
ECMWF ensemble mean QPF is generally in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, and
with very cold air firmly entrenched at the surface, all of it is
likely to be frozen across central NC, whether that be snow or ice.
The main question that has to be answered is how strong the push of
warmer air is several thousand feet above the surface, which almost
always occurs in these setups across central NC. The latest GFS is
farther south with the 850 mb front and tracks the surface low
farther offshore, thus depicting more snow compared to the ECMWF,
but this has been going back and forth, and their respective
ensemble guidance has generally been a bit warmer/less bullish with
snowfall overall. The CMC is warmer than either model and would
result in a significant ice storm over more of the area. So there is
likely to be a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts somewhere over
central NC, and an all snow event everywhere is very unlikely, but
the most favored area for that climatologically would be along and
north of the I-85 corridor. This is where current NBM probabilities
for 6+ inches of snowfall are in the 60-80% range. Meanwhile NBM
probabilities of 0.25+ inches of freezing rain are in the 60-80%
range across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and central/southern
Coastal Plain. Significant accumulations of sleet will also be
possible especially between where the highest freezing rain and snow
amounts are. In addition to major travel issues, significant tree
damage and power outages may occur especially where the highest ice
accumulations take place. While details on specific amounts are
still uncertain, confidence is increasing in a major winter storm
across central NC, and it is imperative to continue staying tuned
for the latest updates as the forecast is likely to change.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Extremely cold temperatures are likely Saturday
through Tuesday.

A very cold Arctic high will result in record or near record low
maximum temperatures on Saturday and Sunday as highs struggle to get
out of the 20s in many spots, with wind chills not getting out of
the teens. See the climate section below. Widespread lows in the
teens are likely on Saturday and Sunday nights, followed by lows in
the single digits on Monday and Tuesday nights, especially if there
is a snowpack. Highs on Monday and Tuesday are likely to only reach
the lower-to-mid-30s, which would result in minimal melting. This is
likely to keep impacts from the snow and ice lasting into at least
into early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch
or Warning may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 613 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions with calm to variable winds will persist through the
24 hour TAF period. Some mid-high level cloudiness will stream in
from the southwest tomorrow, but VFR conditions will prevail through
the end of the TAF period. Expect generally light swly sfc flow
tomorrow.

Outlook: Marginal LLWS may develop at northern TAF sites after 00Z
Thursday as a strong low-level jet develops across the mid-Atlantic.
Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions to prevail through
Thursday night (light rain may be possible Thursday afternoon, but
generally should be dry for much of this period). This weekend,
confidence is increasing in a potential winter storm may bring
wintry precipitation and associated sub-VFR conditions Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Max Temperatures:

January 24:
KGSO: 25/2014
KRDU: 27/2014
KFAY: 28/1970

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013

Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KGSO: 3/1940
KRDU: 10/1940
KFAY: 14/1963

January 27:
KGSO: -7/1940
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/CA
Aviation...Luchetti/Helock