Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS62 KRAH 161715
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Just a very outside chance of a stray isolated shower Sunday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

1) Hot weather and mainly dry with low to middle 90s Sunday through
Wednesday.

2) Increasingly unsettled and trending lower in highs Wed onward,
but the finer details are far from certain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot weather and mainly dry with low to middle 90s
Sunday through Wednesday.

Anomalous ridging extending west into the southeast US is forecast
to be in place from tomorrow through at least Wednesday. Ensemble
and probabilistic data from the NBM continue to show a high
likelihood (70-percent and greater) of high temperatures at or above
90 degrees during this stretch. Low-level thicknesses will rise to
values typical for late July, supportive of low to middle 90s. The
Heat Risk category reaches a Moderate (level 2 of 4) threshold
during this time with dewpoints mixing out into the 50s at times in
the afternoon. As we saw in April during the two heat wave events,
early season heat can result in a rapid rise in heat-related
illnesses due to people being less accustomed to these conditions.

Shower and storm chances will remain limited during this time frame,
mainly focused along subtle, mesoscale boundaries of the sea-breeze
and a lee trough west of the Piedmont.

For our Sunday, tomorrow, the mid-level lapse rates are actually
fairly steep, with over 8C/km, with 1500 J/kg of CAPE, albeit with a
notable capping inversion within the ridge. A decaying eastward-
moving mid-level disturbance in eastern GA and upstate SC will
likely force scattered storms across this region. The newer high-res
REFS ensemble also shows a few widely isolated storms in and around
central NC, perhaps in relation to a few cells breaking the cap
where a tongue of higher lower 60s dewpoints set up within PW`s of
1.2 to 1.4 inches. The overall chance on Sun is low, but a stray
storm cannot be ruled out. The better chance of storms may come late
Wed with the approach of a cold front and resultant storm outflow
from storms upstream.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasingly unsettled and trending lower in highs
Wed onward, but the finer details are far from certain.

The long-range LREF ensemble and corresponding deterministic
scenarios continue to indicate that the anomalous ridge extending
into the area will gradually lose its influence. The consensus
supports a gradual trend of height falls in association with
troughing across the west and northwest gradually shifting east into
Canada. As that happens, a slowly approaching cold front is forecast
to slide east from the OH/TN valley region. That front, if it were
to approach as guidance suggests, should favor increased shower and
storm chances to close out next week. The wettest period in the
guidance is centered around Thu, when the front approaches and may
eventually push through. The LREF ensemble shows many members
indicating increasingly wet weather Thu into the weekend, as a
result of the lingering front and disturbances aloft tracking into
the area in the southwest flow. But the mesoscale details will be
key in this convective regime as it relates to how much QPF we get,
which still shows high spread. At the surface, ensembles do suggest
the potential for late-season cold air damming late next week with
clusters indicating 1024-1028mb high pressure nosing down from the
Great Lakes. However, there still remain a set of other solutions
which show a more progressive high off the Atlantic coast, making
these details far from certain. For now, expect that uptick in storm
chances late next week, along with gradually lower highs in the 70s
to 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period as mid/high clouds briefly thicken through tonight. Low-lvl
moisture return may result in SCT/BKN MVFR-to-LIFR cloud layer and
mist, primarily around FAY but perhaps as far north as RDU/RWI.
Confidence in its development is low, but higher confidence exists
in the possibility of a brief MVFR cig as diurnal heating begins
through 15-16z Sun morning, again, primarily at FAY. Otherwise light
south-southwest winds prevail with periodic gusts lingering this
afternoon until around 23-00z this evening.

Outlook: Risk for morning stratus, mist, and brief MVFR cigs through
mid-morning will continue each morning, primarily across the Coastal
Plain and Sandhills (FAY/RWI), through Wed morning. Rain and sub-VFR
aviation restrictions become more likely Wed through Thur ahead of
and especially behind a weak and slow-moving cold front where
classical-CAD pattern appears probable as early as Thurs/Thurs night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...Swiggett
CLIMATE...RAH