Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

670
FXUS62 KRAH 030929
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
429 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continental Polar high pressure will migrate across the Southeast
through early Thursday. A dry cold front will lead Arctic high
pressure across and offshore the Middle Atlantic later Thursday
through Friday, while weak waves of low pressure will track along a
wavy frontal zone from the northern Gulf to offshore the Southeast
coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Strengthening, wswly flow will prevail from the Southwest to the
Middle Atlantic, between a sub-tropical high over Cuba and an
elongated, positive tilt trough that will extend from a strongly-
amplifying shortwave over ON and the upr Great Lakes wswwd to
another major shortwave over the srn Rockies and Southwest. Within
that fast, quasi-zonal flow regime, strongly rising heights and
strong and deep subsidence over cntl NC this morning will become
neutral or tend toward weakly falling ones by Thu morning. It will
also advect a plume of cirrus/cirrostratus that will stream from the
Rio Grande this morning to the Carolinas this evening.

At the surface, an occluded front now approaching the Savannah
Basin, the one which swept ssewd the in-situ CAD airmass that was
over cntl NC on Tue, will stall and separate 1022 mb continental
Polar high pressure over the Deep South from a separate high
pressure cell over NC/VA.

While the associated sensible weather for cntl NC will be mainly
sunny/clear and unseasonably chilly-cold, veering low-level flow may
cause stratocumulus now wrapping clockwise from ern NC through SC to
expand nwd across parts of the srn Piedmont and srn Sandhills
through this evening, with associated partly cloudy skies. Calm and
mainly clear tonight will favor strong radiational cooling atop
saturated soil from yesterday`s rain, supportive of at least patchy
fog development Thu morning, with highest probability of occurrence
and lowest visibility restrictions in an arc from the srn
Piedmont to the cntl Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 425 AM Wednesday...

* Increasing clouds and milder/more-seasonable Thu
* Precipitation developing, including a rain/snow mix that will
  probably transition to all snow for several hours across the nrn
  Piedmont, late Thu night-Fri morning

The mid/upr-level height gradient will tighten across the lower mid-
latitudes and contribute to the intensification of a powerful, 150-
175 kt upr-level jet across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic, where
u-wind anomalies are forecast to reach 3 sigma. It will do so in
response to the pivot of a negatively-tilted, nrn branch polar
shortwave trough across and offshore the Middle Atlantic and
Northeast, and as the srn branch polar and sub-tropical streams
merge and phase downstream of a couple of ejecting shortwave troughs
now centered over the Southwest and near 25N/125W, respectively. A
strengthening low/mid-level WAA regime, and also frontogenesis, will
result within the elongated jet entrance region, equatorward of the
jet core and across the Southeast.

At the surface, a dry cold front will lead Arctic high pressure
across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic Thu and swd into NC by Fri
morning. The Arctic high will be favorably strong (~1028-1030 mb)
and located (over PA) for wintry precipitation in cntl NC Thu night
but then quickly weaken and progress offshore on Friday.

After a mostly sunny start to Thu, considerable mid and high-level
moisture, and associated combination of altocumulus and cirrostratus
ceilings, will overspread cntl NC through the afternoon and evening.
Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures Thu will probably
moderate into the 50s courtesy of both modification of the cP high
and airmass over the Southeast, and also wly/downslope flow at 850
mb.

Lift, initially centered in the mid-levels between 700-500 mb, will
cause a precipitation shield to blossom across the TN Valley and
expand quickly newd and across the srn Appalachians and especially
wrn Carolinas Thu night. Partial thickness and point forecast
soundings (top-down) suggest that as the precipitation shield begins
to overspread cntl NC Thu night, its nrn periphery will probably
transition from a mix of rain and snow across the nrn Piedmont to
all snow for several hours roughly along and north of I-85 Fri
morning, as thermal profiles trend toward deep, near freezing
isothermal, including into the near surface layer owing to diabatic
contributions from both evaporational cooling and melting of snow. A
very light coating may begin to accumulate over the nw Piedmont by
sunrise, with some additional light accumulation through the
morning, before thermal profiles trend above freezing amid continued
mid-level WAA and a lack of continued surface cold/dry advection
from the transitory and weakening surface high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

* Highest chances for precipitation still Friday into early Friday
  night, with lower confidence in chances Saturday through Monday.

* There may be some snow accumulation across the northern Piedmont
  and northern Coastal Plain Fri morning before mixing with and
  changing over to rain Fri afternoon.

Aloft, a s/w will track ewd across the region Fri and offshore Fri
night as another s/w drops sewd into the cntl Plains. The second s/w
may finally help the longwave trough progress ewd across the cntl
and ern CONUS Fri night through Sun. Central NC should be under the
influence of wswly to swly flow through at least Sun. The second s/w
may move across the region Sun night/Mon, but model solutions vary
wrt the timing, amplitude, and available moisture. Another nrn
stream s/w may track across the Great Lakes/OH Valley and Northeast
US Tue/Tue night. At the surface, Arctic high pressure over the Tri-
State area Fri morning will shift ewd and off the New England coast
on Fri, while continuing to ridge swwd across the region. Meanwhile,
an area of low pressure will eject enewd across the Southeast US and
lift newd off and along the Carolina coast, along a quasi-stationary
front Fri/Fri night. There could be another wave/low that develops
and tracks along the front Sat/Sat night, following a similar track
as the previous low. Farther west, an area of low pressure may
develop off the srn Rockies over the srn Plains Sat night in
response to the s/w aloft. This low should track ewd across the lwr
MS Valley and Deep South on Sun, however there are considerable
model differences with this system that will influence its potential
impacts, or lack thereof, for central NC Sun night/Mon.

Precipitation: Fri still looks like the wettest day/eve in the
extended forecast. There is an increasing signal for another
possible round of precipitation between late Sat and Sun aft,
highest chances across the south and east. Sun night/Mon remains
fairly uncertain, but there is at least a slight chance for some
precipitation during that time.

P-types: While the majority of the precipitation from Fri to Mon is
expected to be liquid, some wintry precipitation is possible with
each of the rounds, mainly during the early morning timeframe and
especially across the northern portions of central NC. For the
Friday system, some snow may linger into the morning across the nrn
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, with up to 0.5 inch accumulation
possible, before mixing with and becoming all rain during the
afternoon. Based on current timing, this could impact the morning
commute for locations along and north of the US-1 corridor. As the
low moves away Fri night/early Sat, there could be a brief period of
some fzra over the nrn Piedmont. Given the continued low confidence
and model differences, will hold off on specifics for Sat night
through Mon.

Temperatures: Highs will remain below normal Fri-Tue. Fri will the
coldest day, with highs ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE, some
15-20 degrees below normal. Highs Sat and Sun ranging from mid 40s
to around 50 degrees. Lows should generally remain near to slightly
below normal, generally ranging from upper 20s to low/mid 30s, with
the exception of Mon night, which could be several degrees lower,
but uncertainty remains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

While mainly VFR conditions are forecast for cntl NC through 06Z
Thu, MVFR to low VFR stratocumulus now wrapping clockwise from ern NC
through SC may linger across srn NC through this evening, including
near and especially just southwest of FAY (ie. toward MEB and RCZ).
Surface high pressure will otherwise build across the Southeast and
favor light and variable surface winds in cntl NC.

Outlook: Strong radiational cooling tonight, atop saturated soil
from yesterday`s rain, will probably promote the development of at
least patchy fog Thu morning, with highest probability of occurrence
and lowest visibility restrictions in an arc from near CLT to FAY to
RWI. An energetic southern stream jet will send a few waves of lift
and precipitation --and flight restrictions-- into cntl NC late this
week through early next week. The first will arrive and will include
a chance of snow over the Piedmont late Thu night-Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MWS