Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS62 KRAH 131921
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal zone will hold over the Carolinas through tonight. A
strong Arctic cold front over the Ohio Valley will move southeast
through the area Sunday. Frigid high pressure will build over the
region Monday, then move to our south Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

* Quiet and seasonable through this evening, then a chance of light
  rain late tonight across the southeast.

The latest surface analysis reveals an increasingly diffuse frontal
zone across the Carolinas, with a dissipating theta-e gradient and a
nearly uniform light surface flow over the CWA from the S and SW.
Apart from a shield of orographically enhanced cirrus in our NW,
insolation has been abundant today and should remain so for the rest
of the afternoon, and this, along with milder Atlantic-source air
working into the CWA, will support highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

The much-anticipated Arctic cold front is currently analyzed moving
into the Ohio Valley and will approach NC tonight, as prominent mid
level shortwave troughing swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley toward the Appalachians with 100-200 m height falls. Above
normal PWs will spread into central NC overnight, attending robust
upper divergence in the right entrance region of the upper jet
streak, although the weak surface ridging stretching across coastal
SC/GA and Gulf coast will keep low level moisture return limited.
While a prefrontal trough is likely to shift through the forecast
area and to our SE prior to daybreak, the coldest air associated
with the Arctic front should hold up just W of the higher terrain
through tonight. That said, the uptick in MSLP gradient behind the
prefrontal trough will likely produce some northwesterly gusts in
the NW CWA in the predawn hours. Expect chance pops to spread into
our far SW CWA and across the SE half of the CWA after 2 AM, but
amounts will be quite small. Skies should trend to mostly cloudy,
esp over the S and E, with lows 32-37 NW and 38-44 SE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

* A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of central NC from
  Sun evening to mid morning Mon, for wind chills as low as 3F-10F.
* Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 25-35 mph expected
  Sun morning through Sun evening.
* Good chance of rain mainly over the S and E Sun morning through
  mid afternoon, perhaps ending with a brief rain/snow mix in the NE
  CWA.

The Arctic cold front is still expected to sweep SE through central
NC through early afternoon Sun. Moisture depth ahead of the front is
still in question, but should be sufficient from just off the ground
up toward the mixed phase region for good chance to likely pops,
mainly from the Triangle to the S and E, highest E in the Coastal
Plain E of I-95 where better low level moisture will reside and
where PWs are projected to reach 150% of normal. Overall amounts
will continue to be low, given less moisture near the surface and
above 700 mb, so totals should be around a tenth of an inch or less.
Thermal profiles do support the potential for a brief wintry mix or
changeover to light snow before ending, as the cold air rushes in
and temps and dewpoints plummet. But this should be short-lived as
the column dries out and we lose moisture both above -12C and in the
lowest 150 mb. We can`t rule out a quick dusting in the far NE CWA
in places like Warrenton, Roanoke Rapids, and Tarboro, but this risk
looks too low to include at this time, as the cold air may be
largely chasing the moisture. Morning temps in the mid 30s to near
50 NW to SE should drop to the mid 20s to mid 30s by sunset, with
quickly clearing skies as NW/downslope flow takes over. Winds should
be strongest from midday through much of the afternoon, as strong
CAA and incoming dense air combines with deepening mixing, yielding
winds of 15-25 mph and gusts as high as 25-35 mph. Wind chills will
plunge through the day, reaching the single digits in many areas by
early evening, supporting the cold weather advisory starting at 6 PM
and running through Mon mid morning. Wind speeds and gusts are a bit
under thresholds for a wind advisory, but we`ll continue to message
that outdoor objects including holiday decorations could be tossed
about. Models are consistent and in good agreement on winds
decreasing sufficiently after sunset to allow a steep drop in air
temps down to lows in the teens areawide, producing wind chills as
low as 3 to 10 degrees above zero toward daybreak Mon. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

* Continued cold Tues morning, but warming trend expected Tues
  through Thurs night.

* Forecast confidence remains low for Thurs into Fri morning with
  our next precipitation chances.

A highly anomalous ~1040mb area of surface high pressure will be
positioned over the southern/central Appalachians Mon morning will
broaden as it spills across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
into Tues morning. A weak pressure gradient and relatively favorable
surface high location Mon night into Tues morning should support
favorable conditions for excellent radiational cooling, especially
with Mon afternoon dew points still in the single digits. However, a
pocket of mid-upper level moisture shifting through the Ohio Valley
Mon night will likely become orographically enhanced as it
progresses east of the Appalachians and over the Mid-Atlantic after
midnight. The thickness and areal extent will likely drive the
temperatures into Tues morning. Latest forecast of mostly low 20s to
upper teens remains in line with general consensus among the latest
statistical guidance, but if the cloud cover is thinner than
anticipated, then mostly mid/upper teens would be possible with
urban areas around 20 degrees.

A compact shortwave shifting across the Great Lakes and Northeast
Thurs into Fri will be embedded within predominantly zonal flow
aloft and will drive our next precipitation chances. Amplitude and
speed of this wave remains highly uncertain with this wave with an
added complication of southern stream influence and/or phasing with
the northern stream wave. Forcing for ascent is quite weak as the
best H5 height falls, from an ensemble mean approach, will likely
occur north of central NC over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast with weakening 700 and 850mb WAA spreading into the Mid-
Atlantic. This pattern will likely not support any
significant/hazardous precipitation with forecast rainfall amounts
of less than or equal to 0.10".

It is worth noting an alternative scenario which is primarily being
driven by the ECMWF and its ensemble members. This forecast system
suggests a more amplified shortwave and perhaps a brief phasing with
the southern stream jet over the eastern CONUS. This would result in
stronger horizontal WAA and development of weak MUCAPE ahead of the
approaching cold front and support the potential for higher rainfall
totals. This solution is considered an outlier among 00z guidance,
but worth monitoring for the threat of stronger wind gusts and
moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to lightning.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the
first 12 hours of the TAF period, with lower confidence in
restrictions developing overnight. Dry weather with high ceilings
and light south-southwest wind is expected through the afternoon and
evening. As a cold front moves through the region tonight, the wind
will veer to the northwest at all terminals. With less moisture
present at INT/GSO, only scattered mid clouds are expected, but
farther to the southeast, expect ceilings (possibly MVFR), a several
hour period of low-level wind shear, and the potential for rain.
Once the front moves through, northwest wind gusts up to 25 kt will
be possible at all terminals Sunday morning.

Outlook: Wind gusts will increase Sunday afternoon, reaching as high
as 30-35 kt before dropping under 10 kt overnight into Monday. Dry
VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday, with potential for 20
kt gusts again on Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Green