Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXUS62 KRAH 090546
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
146 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory issued for portions of the southern Coastal Plain.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 146 AM Thursday...

1) Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous
heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat
concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend.

2) Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances
continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and
potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 146 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but
dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain.
Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend.

Mid level drying will briefly take hold across the area today, with
many locations seeing dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 60s this
afternoon. At the same time, H5 heights will increase slightly
especially across the southern Coastal Plain. In that area in
particular, the slightly lower dewpoints will likely be offset by
higher 2m temps and once again we will see some areas of dangerously
high heat index values across the area. This time it looks to be
confined to the southern Coastal Plain and points southeast, and
another Heat Advisory has been issued for today.

Looking ahead at Friday and Saturday, persistent mid level ridging
will keep temperatures well above normal (approaching 100 in some
spots across the Coastal Plain), and it`s entirely likely we`ll need
to continue with Heat Advisories for parts of our area through
Saturday. Finally by Sunday we will see some relief area-wide as
temperatures retreat into the mid 80s across the NW Piedmont and
upper 80s to the southeast. Near or slightly below normal temps are
forecast through at least Tuesday before warming once again into the
low to mid 90s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized
convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching
cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and
Sunday.

Weak mid-lvl and convectively perturbed westerly flow will work to
focus otherwise air mass convection each afternoon/evening through
Friday. Moderate instability, seasonable PWAT values, and steep low-
lvl lapse rates will support damaging straight-line winds as the
most likely hazard each afternoon and evening, although coverage
today will likely be more limited in nature with roughly neutral H5
height tendencies and PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75" advecting into
central NC during peak heating. Best chances may be more focused
around southern Appalachians that moves eastward into the Piedmont
and again on Friday, but perhaps aided by outflow stemming from
upstream convection over the Ohio Valley.

Precipitation chances and coverage are expected to increase heading
into the weekend as anomalous mid/upper lvl ridging over the Four
Corners into the Northern Plains directs a west-to-east streamer of
anomalous moisture and parade of convectively induced shortwave
disturbances traverse across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the
same time, high pressure is expected to build and strengthen over
the Northeast and push a backdoor cold front into and through
central NC Sun into Monday. Convective chances will be muddied by
several days of prior coverage and rain cooled outflow moving into
the area and the approaching cold front. If adequate instability is
able to develop, increased mid-lvl flow of 25-35 kts would allow for
more organized convection to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1252 AM Thursday...

Precip has ended across the area with only a few high clouds
remaining. However we are already seeing some IFR stratus making its
way into the northern Coastal Plain and RWI is likely to see at
least a few hours of IFR cigs through daybreak. Lesser confidence in
these cigs making it into RDU so I will keep them VFR for now. Since
Wednesday`s precip was less widespread than previous days, fog
should also be less widespread. Some isolated pockets of MVFR vsbys
may develop late tonight but not confident enough to include in the
06Z TAFS.

Looking toward this afternoon, drier air moving into the area should
yield an overall decrease in precip chances area-wide. Some western
Piedmont convection is possible and could drift into the Triad sites
after 20Z but this morning`s 00Z guidance keeps things dry
elsewhere.

Outlook: Brief restrictions will be possible again on Friday,
especially in the west as another round of afternoon thunderstorms
may form. A better chance for more widespread rain and the
associated restrictions will be on Saturday and Sunday as a cold
front approaches and moves through the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/AS
AVIATION...Leins/LH