Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS62 KRAH 130958
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 600 AM Monday...

* High confidence in multiple days of record or near-record high
  temperatures through late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 600 AM Monday...

1) Dry weather and near-record heat will maintain fire weather
concerns through much of the week. SPC has portions of the Piedmont
in the Elevated risk (level 1 of 3) for today and Tuesday. The threat
appears low enough to preclude an increased fire danger statement
today - after coordination with the NCFS.

2) Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 600 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather and near-record heat will maintain fire
weather concerns through much of the week. SPC has portions of the
Piedmont in the Elevated risk (level 1 of 3) for today and Tuesday.
The threat appears low enough to preclude an increased fire danger
statement today - after coordination with the NCFS.

For today and Tuesday, even though SPC has portions of the region in
the elevated level for fire weather today, the return flow from the
S-SW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph and the minimum relative
humidities in the 30-35 range are a bit too marginal for statements.
Coordination with the NCFS left it up to the meterologist`s decision
due to these marginal conditions. Therefore, we decided to highlight
the mid to late week period for increasing hazards for fire weather and
behavior give the expected 90s for highs and continued drying. The
winds and relative humidities do seem that they will remain marginal
and not get out of hand.


Dry conditions will persist across the region as minimum RH values
drop into the 2535% range this week, particularly Thursday into the
weekend ahead of the next frontal passage. While the pressure
gradient remains relatively relaxedlimiting peak wind gusts to the
1520 mph rangethe lack of significant moisture recovery is
notable. Although the forecast combination of humidity and wind is
expected to remain just below official "Increased Fire Danger"
criteria, elevated concerns will persist until a wetting rain
occurs. With no meaningful precipitation on the horizon, a statewide
burn ban remains in effect for all of NC until further notice with
all burning, including with previously-issued permits, is prohibited.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through
Saturday.

As the surface high offshore continues to influence the Mid-Atlantic
region with warm south/southwesterly flow through the week expect
temperatures to climb into the low 90s by Wednesday. Expect
temperatures to continue to be 20-25 degrees above normal through
the rest of the week with near record breaking temperatures in the
upper 80s to mid 90s expected at all 3 climate sites (GSO/RDU/FAY)
each day through the end of the week. The warmest day is expected to
be Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s everywhere. (see
climate section below for list of climate records)

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

Generally VFR conditions are favored with high confidence through
12z Tuesday. South to southwest winds around 10 knots will veer
to the SW, strengthen, and become gusty to around 20-23 knots today.

Outlook: VFR conditions will be favored this week, during an
extended period of warm and dry swly flow, around a continental-
sourced area of high pressure that will become anchored near
Bermuda.

&&

.CLIMATE...

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922

April 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922

April 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006

April 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006

April 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941

April 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930

April 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993

April 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934

April 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921

April 18:
KGSO: 66/1909
KRDU: 63/1941
KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/CA
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH