Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

693
FXUS62 KRAH 171755
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Air Quality Alerts expanded to include counties near the Virginia
  border in the eastern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain for poor
  air quality due to wildfire smoke.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 150 PM Friday...

1) Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for main metropolitan areas
of the Triad and Triangle as well as near the NC and VA border.

2) Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Coastal Plain, eastern
Sandhills, and the urban areas around the Triangle.

3) Becoming unsettled Saturday into Monday with increased chances of
severe storms Saturday, Sunday, and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for main metropolitan areas of
the Triad and Triangle as well as near the NC and VA border.

In collaboration with the NC Department of Environmental Quality,
the Air Quality Alert has been expanded to include the counties near
the NC/VA border due to poor air quality from fine particulates
(wildfire smoke). Visible satellite imagery, particularly the CIMSS
Natural Color and CIRA Geocolor products, nicely show the aerial
footprint where near-surface smoke is resulting in both poor air
quality and surface visibility restrictions.

Alerts associated poor air quality due to ozone are expected to
improve with loss of diurnal heating and isolation, but poor air
quality from wildfire smoke will likely persist until around
midnight. A return of southwesterly flow at the surface overnight
and into Sat is expected to lift the smoke well north of our area by
Sat morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Coastal Plain, eastern
Sandhills, and the urban areas around the Triangle.

Dangerously hot temperatures are occurring over the advisory area
with most sites currently observing heat index values of 102 to
around 109. Elsewhere, values are still unseasonably hot and ranging
from 96 to 103 degrees. Although not strictly reaching the heat
advisory criteria, light to nearly stagnant surface winds, abundant
sunshine and hot temperatures will still provide a favorable air
mass for heat related illnesses to occur even outside of the
advisory area.

A similarly hot and humid air mass is expected over the area on
Saturday and heat advisories may be need once again, primarily
around the I-95 corridor eastward to the Triangle. One glimmer of
good news however is the pressure gradient over the region begins to
tighten due to the low level mass response from the passing
shortwave though over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will
provide for a less stagnant air mass and noticeably lower WBGT
values.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Becoming unsettled Saturday into Monday with increased chances of
severe storms Saturday, Sunday, and Wednesday.

A rather active weather pattern remains in place starting tomorrow
and continue into next week. On Saturday, a rather strong trough
over the Great Lakes will track into the Mid-Atlantic states in the
evening. At the surface, there will be a cold front dropping down
into the lower OH valley Saturday night. A pre-frontal trough will
exist over NC and VA and aid scattered storm development across the
western Piedmont in the afternoon and evening. Outflows from storms
will aid eastward propagation into the Triangle and Coastal Plain in
the mid to late evening hours. While shear will be present, the
biggest factor driving the marginal to slight risk of severe appears
tied to very high DCAPE of 1400 J/kg. This will allow for damaging
wind gust potential with any strong storms.

On Sunday, the front over the lower OH valley will approach NC and
provide a more focused threat of showers and thunderstorms. The
trend has increased for both severe threat via AI guidance but also
storm coverage. Storm coverage looks to develop in the afternoon but
may persist well into the evening to early overnight hours. Much of
the area is in a slight risk of severe storms, with continued high
DCAPE over 1100 J/kg, but also with stronger effective shear of 25
kt. Damaging winds remain a primary threat on Sunday. Additionally,
given a more favorable setup for training storms with the boundary
stalling, heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding will be a
secondary threat.

The unsettled weather trend continues Monday, from any lingering
surface boundary. Additionally, an area of low pressure over the
northeastern Gulf is favored to bring increased moisture into the SE
US at this time. Regardless of its development, that moisture should
increase rain chances. The NBM has also shown an increase in storm
coverage related to the aforementioned forcing and possible sea-
breeze.

While isolated storm coverage is possible Tuesday, coverage appears
limited. But storm chances increase yet again next Wednesday. Most
guidance from deterministic and ensemble data show a strong cold
front advancing in Wednesday night. The trough looks fairly strong
for late July, with effective shear of 25-35 kt. Right now, SPC has
us outlooked for a 15-percent slight risk and this seems warranted
given the pattern. All in all, an active stretch for central NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the area as 5-8 kft
fair-weather cu bubble at the top of the mixed layer. Although sub-
VFR vsby can`t be completely ruled out due to haze/smoke at the
northern terminals through this afternoon, visible satellite and
surface observations suggest this area will remain pinned to near
the VA/NC border. A brief and isolated shower can`t be ruled out at
any terminal this aft/eve. Best chance may be GSO based on satellite
imagery and proximity to greater low-level instability.

Outlook: Increasing chances for diurnally driven showers/storms each
afternoon heading into the weekend. A wavy frontal zone waffling
over the region this weekend into early next week may result in a
more active weather pattern to support sub-VFR conditions from
stratus/mist overnight and scattered to locally numerous
showers/storms in the aft/eve.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures within 3F of forecast ones...

Record Highs:

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932
July 18: KGSO: 97/1986

Record High Mins:

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2019
July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025
July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ007>011.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-011-025>028-
041>043-077-078-088-089.
Air Quality Alert until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ021>023-025-038-
039-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/Kren
AVIATION...AS