Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

064
FXUS62 KRAH 140640
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

1) Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal
convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with
limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend
through mid next week

The flow aloft will undergo amplification during the latter half of
the weekend into early to mid next week, as trough anchored by a
cyclone now over the Gulf of AK progresses inland and across the
Pacific Northwest and Rockies. Downstream and through the same time,
a mid-level, sub-tropical high now over TX will progress ewd and
strengthen along or just off the srn Middle Atlantic coast.

Surface high pressure beneath and downstream of the associated sub-
tropical high will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic
coast, while a trough will extend in the lee of the srn and cntl
Appalachians and a sea breeze will probably move through the
entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-evening. Warm and seasonably
moist sswly flow around the Bermuda high and across cntl NC will
favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the lwr 90s and mixed
dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s by Sun, with similarly hot and
perhaps slightly more-humid conditions likely to continue through
the middle of next week. An associated weakly unstable and weakly
capped environment (with pockets of moderate instability possible)
will become supportive of isolated/widely scattered convection -
favored along the lee trough (nw Piedmont) and also possibly along
the sea breeze (Sampson Co.) through mid-evening, when nocturnal
cooling and boundary layer stabilization should cause convective
inhibition to become prohibitive to development. More than slight to
low chance probabilities of rain/convection will not result until
the next cold front reaches cntl NC, probably not until just beyond
the valid forecast period (ie. not until Thu).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions should largely prevail through
the TAF period. The showers accompanied by 6-8 kft cigs moving
across the northern sites now should continue ewd through early this
morning. A gust into the teens will be possible ahead of the
showers. Skies will clear out from W-E as the front moves across the
area through this morning. Winds will become nwly and increase
behind the front. Nwly winds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts
expected around/after sunrise through early eve. Winds should abate
after sunset, remaining light through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Mon, although some patchy
early morning sub-VFR fog is possible Sun and Mon mornings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...10