Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS62 KRAH 101824
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
124 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge front will remain quasi-stationary over the western portions
of NC today. A strong cold front will overtake it as it moves east
of the Appalachians and across central NC tonight. Yet another,
reinforcing cold front will move across the region on Sunday,
followed by chilly high pressure that will settle across the
Southeast through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 123 PM Saturday...

Regional mosaic radar this afternoon displayed a line of convection
stemming from western NC southwest through the Deep South/Gulf
states. As expected, convection has been most vigorous across AL and
GA where lapse rates are steeper and CAPE is higher.  MLCAPE of ~100-
250 J/kg may develop across our area this afternoon/evening, but
generally speaking the 12Z high-res guidance continues to keep much
of the vigorous/concerning convection well to our south. However,
the LLJ is expected to strengthen considerably just above the sfc
between ~18 and 00Z (strongest across the northern Piedmont). As
such, any showers (and isolated storms) that move across the area
later today could mix some of these stronger winds aloft to the sfc
causing a low-end localized damaging wind gust threat. Areas across
the Piedmont to northern Coastal Plain would have the best chance
for any diabatically enhanced gusts later this afternoon and
evening. Showers and isolated storms should largely move east of the
area by early tonight, behind which a sfc cold front will clear
through central NC through Sunday morning. Additional QPF from this
system should be highest in the Triad where a few tenths to a half
inch is expected. Further south and east (especially south of
Raleigh) may only see a few hundreds of an inch through 12Z Sunday.

Warm sswly sfc flow with gusts of up to 25 to 35 mph ahead of the
convection will persist this afternoon before subsiding a bit
overnight (although sites further east may mix periodically with
some stronger wnwly gusts even overnight). Overnight lows will
remain mild in the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

* Windy with peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph possible

A vigorous mid/upper level trough will swing through the region on
Sunday. The lead/effective cold front and associated weakening
shower band will exit to the east around daybreak, giving way to
west-east clearing through the morning. A secondary cold front
is then slated to cross central NC during the afternoon.

Steepening low-level lapse rates will facilitate deep vertical
mixing, tapping into a 30-35kt mean boundary layer flow(~40 at the
top of mixed layer). This will result in frequent NWLY wind gusts of
30 to 35 mph area-wide Sunday afternoon. Higher-end, more localized
gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible. These conditions will also support
significant fire potential as well (See Fire Wx section below).

Temperatures will follow a non-diurnal curve, with daytime highs
likely occurring in the late morning(west) to early afternoon(east),
just prior to the arrival of the secondary cold frontal passage.
Highs ranging from mid/upper 40s NW to lower 60s SE.

The pressure gradient will relax Sunday night as sfc high builds in
from the west. Winds will diminish overnight with steady CAA.
Overnight lows in the 25-30 F range, with some lowers 20s possible
in outlying rural areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...

* Near to above normal temperatures Mon-Wed, transitioning to below
  normal through the end of the week.

* Highest precipitation chances Wed and Thu, mainly liquid with a
  slight chance for a brief transition to snow as it moves out.

Outlook: Aloft, a broad longwave trough will generally sit over the
region Mon/Mon night, with a couple perturbations in the flow as
weak s/w disturbances move across. Meanwhile, a closed low over the
Baja will move slowly ewd across nrn Mexico. Tue/Tue night, a potent
nrn stream s/w will eject sewd across the upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes, with a secondary s/w following behind it and amplifying the
longwave trough south across the Plains. The srn stream low will
open into a trough over the srn Plains and get picked up by the
longwave trough. The longwave trough will shift ewd to over the
eastern third of the CONUS, while the embedded shortwaves swing
through it and across region Wed and Thu. Another nrn stream s/w
will drop ssewd out of cntl Canada on Thu potentially closing off as
it moves across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes, while
a secondary s/w following behind it further amplifies the longwave
trough, shifting the axis wwd through Sat. At the surface, high
pressure will ridge newd into the area as it settles over the Deep
South Mon/Mon night. The high will weaken on Tue, with the ridge
shifting south as a trough strengthens over the area ahead of an
approaching frontal system. There are still some major differences
amongst the medium-range guidance wrt how the system will evolve and
if/were any subsequent areas of low pressure may develop along
and/or ahead of the front as it moves into the region Wed/Wed night.
Cold high pressure should build in behind the front and exit ahead
of the next approaching system, however details remain uncertain.
The result is continued forecast uncertainty from Wed onward.

Temperatures: Near normal temperatures on Mon will moderate to above
normal for Tue and Wed ahead of the approaching front. In the wake
of the front, temperatures will drop to below normal and likely
remain there through the end of the week.

Weather: The best chance for precipitation will be Wed through Thu
night with the passage of a potent s/w aloft and ahead of/with the
front (and possible low) at the surface. Keep in mind the forecast
uncertainty, as that also applies to P-types. P-type will depend on
the temperature and the timing of the precipitation. While most of
the precipitation should fall as rain, there is a slight chance for
some snow to mix in early Thu morning and after sunset Thu as the
cold air chases the precip out. Otherwise, the forecast is largely
dry through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1241 PM Saturday...

Pre-frontal convection currently spanning western NC down through
the Gulf States will slide east over central NC late this afternoon
and evening. Ahead of the convection, all sites have largely lifted
to VFR this afternoon as sly sfc flow continues to pick up.  Expect
sly sfc gusts outside of convection to peak in the 20 to 30 kt range
later today.  As showers (perhaps isolated thunder) translate east
across central NC the low-level jet at H9 is expected to strengthen
across the Piedmont. As such, some showers could mix some stronger
winds aloft down to the sfc. Have added Tempo`s at each site to
account for perhaps locally stronger gusts from this diabatic
mixing. Beyond that, some guidance hints at perhaps some fleeting
LLWS at KINT/KGSO as the LLJ strengthens. However, think the sfc
winds will gust at these sites negating LLWS for most part.

Brief MVFR ceilings may accompany the passing showers, but all sites
should lift to VFR as the convection translates east of central NC.
Expect sly pre-frontal gusts to subside some late tonight (although
sites further east may mix here and there). A cold front will sweep
across central NC through sunrise, behind which expect wnwly sfc
gusts of 25 to 35 kts to persist ~14Z through sunset Sunday evening.

Outlook: Wnwly gusts will subside Sunday night/early Monday morning
as VFR conditions persist through Tuesday.  Fairly uncertain beyond
that, but a system may bring adverse aviation conditions Wednesday
to central NC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

*   Significant Fire Risk across central and eastern portions of
    Central NC Sunday afternoon.

Significant Fire Risk is expected to develop across central and
eastern portions of NC Sunday afternoon. Although a lead cold front
will traverse the region late this evening and tonight, associated
showers are expected to weaken and largely dissipate as the move
east across central and eastern NC. This will leave the area will
negligible rainfall and fail to recover dead fuel moisture levels.

In the wake of the lead front and in concert with a secondary cold
front, steepening low-level lapse rates will promote efficient
vertical mixing. Dewpoints will crash into the teens and 20s,
causing RH values to bottom out between 20 to 25 percent Sunday
afternoon. When combined with frequent NWLY wind gusts of 25 to 30
kts, conditions will become conducive to rapid fire spread and
difficult containment.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

January 10:

KRDU: 75/1930
KFAY: 79/1930


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

January 10:
KGSO: 58/1937
KFAY: 59/1937



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Luchetti
FIRE WEATHER...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH