Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS62 KRAH 131709
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1209 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The Freeze Watch for Saturday night into early Sunday has been
  upgraded to a Freeze Warning.

* Rain chances this evening have increased, focused over the
  Triangle and locations north and east.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

1) A reinforcing cold front will move through the region this
evening, bringing a period of scattered showers to portions of
central NC.

2) Frost/Freeze headlines remain in place tonight, with a Freeze
Warning for all of central NC Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A reinforcing cold front will move through the
region this evening, bringing a period of scattered showers to
portions of central NC.

A reinforcing cold front will move through central NC this evening.
The front is presently draped from central VA into western NC. The
front will approach early this evening, moving through late tonight,
bringing the true cold air to the region that will linger through
the weekend and early next week.

Along and ahead of the front, models are in pretty good agreement
that a compact shortwave presently over KY/TN will round the base of
the trough and move through our region this evening. Height falls
range from 30 to 70-dm, providing notable forcing aloft. Forecast
soundings from the RAP/GFS/RRFS also indicate some weak instability
and saturation at the dendritic growth zone region, indicative of
mixed-phase precipitation production aloft. Given these
considerations and some possible low-level convergence along the
front, we should see cloud cover markedly increase late this
afternoon and evening, with a blossoming of precipitation from the
eastern Piedmont and Triangle into the northeast Piedmont and
central to northern Coastal Plain. The 12z HRRR/RRFS have come in
higher with precipitation chances, along with rain amounts, with a
stripe of a tenth of an inch or more over portions of the area from
the Triangle north and east. If we can we a few lightning strikes
like we saw yesterday, would not be surprised if a few reports of
graupel are reported due to the low freezing levels. Some gusts to
20-25 mph could also occur with any convectively-enhanced radar
echoes, feeding on the dry sub-cloud layer inverted-V profiles seen
in soundings.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Frost/Freeze headlines remain in place tonight,
with a Freeze Warning for all of central NC Saturday night.

Frost/Freeze headlines have remained unchanged tonight into early
Saturday. While the aforementioned shortwave and cold front moving
in this evening will increase cloud cover, we still expect clouds to
weaken and disperse after midnight and towards the early morning
hours of Saturday. Some light stirring may also inhibit lows from
getting below freezing in the Warning area, but given little change
in guidance with respect to lows, decided to keep frost/freeze
headlines intact.

A more widespread freeze is expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. A Continental Polar high of around 1030-mb will settle
across the Mid MS valley region. Although not in the most ideal
position, the pressure gradient should relax, allowing winds to go
calm. Coupled with low-level thicknesses of 1304-1310m, should
support a widespread freeze of upper 20s to low 30s, coldest across
the Piedmont. Given the consistent signal in guidance, decided to
upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Warning for Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Late this
evening into early tonight there will be another chance of a few
light rain showers. Confidence is greatest at RDU/RWI to see light
rain reach the surface. PROB30s were introduced given a weak signal
for cigs to approach or fall below 3,000 ft briefly. Otherwise, only
low-VFR cigs expected with > 6SM rain is expected. This afternoon
into the evening expect northwesterly gusts up to around 15-20 kts,
with a chance of some infrequent higher gusts. Highest gusts look to
be in the Triad this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ007>011-021>026-
038>040.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ027-028-041>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...LH/AS