Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS62 KRAH 250621
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Storms have ended in the SE.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 740 PM Monday...

1) Scattered storms have ended in the SE part of the region, no
additional activity is expected tonight.

2) Diurnally driven storms expected to return from mid week into the
weekend, with the greatest chances on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms have ended in the SE part of the
region, no additional activity is expected tonight.

The showers/storms over SE NC have pushed offshore. The cold front
had pushed through Fayetteville and will push just to the SE of
Clinton and Goldsboro in the next few hours. Regardless, much drier
air upstream over the Piedmont will begin to advect in from the
north over SE sections in the next few hours and no additional storm
development is expected.

It will otherwise be mild for late August, and mainly clear
overnight. low temperatures 50s in rural Piedmont locations to
lower to mid 60s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally driven storms expected to return from mid
week into the weekend, with the greatest chances on Thursday and
Friday.

A longwave low amplitude H5 trough over the Ohio Valley will
gradually slide eastward by the middle of the week, as the influence
of offshore ridging gradually wanes across the region. This will
allow for a gradual increase in moisture as weak southerly flow
imports anomalously high PW`s into the area as early as
Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, the longwave trough and attendant
surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest on
Thursday, serving as a focal point for shower and thunderstorm
development area-wide. It would appear the greatest storm chances on
Thursday would be across the western Piedmont in closest proximity
to the front and weak Piedmont trough, although pretty much anywhere
across central NC will have increased storm chances given abundant
PW`s and MLCAPEs around 1000-1500 J/kG.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are expected area-wide on
Friday as the surface front slides into NC.  How far southward this
front makes it before it stalls out is likely the biggest piece of
forecast uncertainty that we`re encountering today. The lack of
strong post-frontal northwesterly flow aloft would suggest the front
will likely stall over NC, then buckle back northward or wash out
completely this weekend. Naturally this would allow for a continued
period of afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances. With the flow
aloft gradually taking on a more zonal component this weekend,
convection within the Piedmont trough as well as sea breeze induced
storms seem like the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

Localized areas of IFR/LIFR fog will continue through around
daybreak across the southern Coastal Plain, just to the east of KFAY
and south of KRWI, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to continue
across central NC through the TAF period.

High pressure over the OH Valley is extending into central NC early
this morning with a modest surge of drier air moving into the
Piedmont from the northwest. Meanwhile, lingering low level moisture
has supported the development of fog in the southern Coastal Plain.
While the LIFR and IFR restrictions are likely to remain just
southeast of KFAY/KRWI a brief period of mainly MVFR VSBY
restrictions are possible through around daybreak at KFAY and KRWI.

Mainly clear skies are expected through the period with just a few
wisps of high cirrus clouds and possibly a few clouds at 5 to 8kft,
mainly tonight. Light north winds are expected today at 4 to to 8kts
although a brief hour or two of gusty winds are possible after
daybreak through mid morning as the nocturnal inversion mixes out.
Light to calm winds are expected tonight.

Outlook: Low and mid level moisture will begin to increase Tuesday
night and continue into the weekend as a southerly flow develops
across the region. This will support an increase in the chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms that will be the
greatest on Thursday and Friday. In addition, the risk of more
widespread late night and morning fog and stratus will return on
Wednesday and especially Thursday morning.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Blaes