Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

941
FXUS62 KRAH 070535
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory issued

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

1) Ongoing convection will wane through the overnight hours. It`ll
be another hot day with scattered showers and storms again this
afternoon as a weak front approaches from the north.

2) Rainfall chances decreasing through the week but increasing this
weekend. Another round of hot temperatures but not to the same
extent as our recent hot stretch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Ongoing convection will wane through the overnight
hours. It`ll be another hot day with scattered showers and storms
again this afternoon as a weak front approaches from the north.

Morning satellite imagery continues to show a slow moving upper low
over KY, not to dissimilar to the position from early Monday
morning. Across NC, showers and storms continue to persist as modest
mid level instability remains in abundant supply, but there has
finally been a bit of an overall downward trend in storm coverage as
of about 1 AM. There is a small cluster of new development across
the western Piedmont that warrants watching as it`s on the outflow
of a larger complex that originated near KCLT. That said, what
activity remains should gradually dissipate through the remainder of
the pre-dawn hours.

After daybreak we should finally reach a point where the atmosphere
is convectively overturned, bringing about a (temporary) end to our
precip chances. Attention then turns toward an approaching surface
trough to our north and an approaching shortwave trough to our
south. Both should provide sufficient lift to support another round
of afternoon showers and storms this afternoon. With modest
instability and little in the way of deep layer shear, storms will
once again depend on outflow collisions to sustain themselves with
damaging winds and periods of heavy rain as the primary threats.
HREF LPMM once again showing a few pockets of 2-3" of rainfall with
the greatest concentration across the northern Coastal Plain.
Pinpointing the exact areas where the heaviest rainfall will occur
is challenging to say the least but the potential for another round
of heavy rain and localized flooding is certainly in play once again
this afternoon.

It will also be hot today ahead of the approaching surface trough,
with the hottest values and highest heat indices likely confined to
the southern and central Coastal Plain where heat indices could
reach 105 degrees or higher this afternoon. As such we`ve issued a
Heat Advisory for today for these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rainfall chances decreasing through the week but
increasing this weekend. Another round of hot temperatures but not
to the same extent as our recent hot stretch.

The weak front that will make a run at central NC today will likely
stall across our area and/or wash out entirely before making it
entirely through the forecast area. At the same time the upper low
over the lower Ohio Valley will open up and be drawn northeastward
into portions of KY/IN. While precip chances will remain elevated on
Wednesday given the presence of the stalled front and eastward
progressing upper low, they should decrease later in the week in the
wake of the departing upper wave. At that point we should see weak
ridging over much of the southeast as a 595dm 500mb high centers
itself over FL. This will act to further reduce precip chances
across NC while also drawing warmer and more humid conditions into
the area. We`ll likely see highs range from the low/mid 90s on
Wednesday gradually increasing to the upper 90s/near 100 on Friday.
At first glance it would appear the most worrisome heat indices will
be confined to the southern Coastal Plain although those sensitive
to the heat will undoubtedly want to monitor forecasts through the
week as temps warm up once again.

The passage of a longwave trough through the Mid Atlantic this
weekend should knock temperatures down a bit closer to (but still
above) normal, and will also bring about a return of afternoon
shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday. Today`s 00Z long
range ensemble clusters suggest a period of northwest flow aloft
early next week as a massive near-600dm 500mb ridge takes hold over
the central US. The deterministic GFS appears to be a bit of an
outlier showing a deep low riding down the east side of the ridge
into NC by early next week but for the time being we`ll hold off on
that particular solution until it gains more support.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Tuesday...

Convection has diminished somewhat since the evening hours but
remains stubbornly persistent to our southwest. Going to maintain a
few more hours of VCSH and/or TEMPOs for thunder until these storms
finally dissipate. Best estimate based on incoming hi-res models is
that storms should largely be over and done with by approx 09Z.
Brief periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible within the
strongest storms.

Looking ahead to this afternoon, a weak trough will approach from
the north late in the day, serving as a trigger for another round of
afternoon showers and storms. Once again brief MVFR cig/vsby
restrictions can`t be ruled out. Highest confidence in storm timing
is at INT/GSO around 21Z and RDU/RWI/FAY closer to 22Z-00Z. There is
a signal in the guidance storms may linger into the evening once
again but to a lesser extent and with a smaller areal footprint.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will be common each afternoon,
with a gradual decrease in areal coverage each day through Friday,
with increased storm chances returning this weekend. Outside of
cig/vsby restrictions within storms, morning fog/stratus is also a
possibility at any given TAF site.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins
AVIATION...Leins