Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS62 KRAH 171024
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Air Quality Alerts in effect for the Triangle and Triad.

* Increased chances of severe weather later this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM Friday...

1) Air Quality Alerts in effect for the Triangle and Triad.

2) Hot temperatures and dangerous heat expected into Saturday.

3) Becoming unsettled this weekend into early next week with
increased chances of severe storms Saturday and especially Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Air Quality Alerts in effect for the Triangle and
Triad.

Similar to yesterday, a hot and stagnant air mass will remain over
the area and result in additional Code Orange Air Quality Alerts. It
is possible that fine particulates from smoke currently streaming
across NY/PA may work down into VA and potentially into the Piedmont
of NC later this morning.  Available guidance in the RRFS and HRRR
suggest the highest concentrations will be across northern NC,
perhaps into the Triad,  so updates to the current Air QUality
Alerts may be needed later today.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Hot temperatures and dangerous heat expected
into Saturday.

A Heat Advisory has been issued through 900 PM for Durham and
Raleigh east through the Coastal Plain. This is where the
apparent temperatures will reach 105+ for several hours this
afternoon. Elsewhere, it will still be very hot, even
dangerously do. But most of these areas will fall just short of
the technical heat advisory criteria. I would treat all areas as
if they were under a heat advisory as there will not be much
difference in place to another east of the Blue Ridge.

Actual highs will be 97-101 with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 70s. Highs Friday will again be in the mid 90s to around
100, with heat indices even higher (possibly up to 109).

Upper ridging will be the strongest and directly overhead
today into tonight. This will bring not only dangerous heat
through Saturday, but air quality issues due to wildfire smoke
aloft and little air movement.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Becoming unsettled this weekend into early
next week with increased precip chances.

A rather stout shortwave for late July will cross the Great Lakes
this weekend and carve out a trough to replace this weeks ridge
over the OH Valley and southern Mid Atlantic. Modest height falls
associated with the trough will overspread what should be a moderate
unstable airmass and  support an increase in storms later Saturday
and more so on Sunday, with additional focus from a convectively
modified frontal zone that is forecast to slip into the area ahead
of the main synoptic front.  Details may depend on where the
boundary ends up, but SPC has added a slight risk for northern NC on
Saturday and all of central NC on Sunday.

Meanwhile, NHC will be watching an upper trough that is migrating
from the Caribbean to the northeast Gulf and whether or not a
surface wave will develop, potentially helping to direct tropical
moisture north along the NC coast to support additional unsettled
weather into Monday.  And then finally a stronger cold front is
forecast to swing through the region midweek, which may bring
another round of showers and storms.

Overall eastern NC is favored for multiple rounds of showers and
storms, resulting in as much as 1-3 inches of rain in the Coastal
Plain by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 625 AM Friday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected. Although sub-VFR vsby can`t
be completely ruled out due to haze/smoke at the northern
terminals today. An isolated shower or brief storm will be
possible anywhere within central NC this PM.

Outlook: Increasing chances for diurnally driven showers/storms
each afternoon heading into the weekend. A wavy frontal zone
waffling over the region this weekend into early next week may
result in a more active weather pattern to support sub-VFR
conditions from stratus/mist overnight and scattered to locally
numerous showers/storms in the aft/eve.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures within 3F of forecast ones...

Record Highs:

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932
July 18: KGSO: 97/1986

Record High Mins:

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2019
July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025
July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for NCZ008-021>023-025-038-039-041.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ010-011-025>028-041>043-077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS/Badgett/MWS
AVIATION...Badgett