Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

887
FXUS62 KRAH 240004
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
704 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 205 PM Monday...

* Minimal changes to expected rainfall event Thu/Thu night, although
  some models are trending toward a weaker/faster system, which
  would mean lower total rainfall in central NC and a slightly
  earlier rain arrival.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 PM Monday...

1) Wind gusts up to 20-25 mph are possible Wed.

2) Chance of showers mainly Thu/Thu night as low pressure tracks
along a frontal zone through NC. Thunder chances are low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Wind gusts up to 20-25 mph are possible Wed.

Surface high pressure will push eastward off the Southeast coast and
FL late Tue through Tue night, setting up a blustery flow from the
SW over central NC for Wed as a warm front lifts northward into the
area. Gusts in our area are most likely to top out at 20-25 mph,
however the NBM does give a 10% chance for gusts over 30 mph Wed,
while the EPS output suggests even higher probabilities (60-80%) of
30+ mph gusts over portions of central NC. Such gusts would not be
particularly hazardous overall, but may cause outdoor objects to be
blown around and may present difficulties for those drying high-
profile vehicles.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers mainly Thu/Thu night as low
pressure tracks along a frontal zone through NC. Thunder chances are
low.

A warm frontal zone lifting into the area early Wed is expected to
settle across NC or VA as surface low pressure tracks from OK/N TX
eastward along the front. As this low approaches, southwesterly low
level flow will increasingly draw Gulf-source moisture into NC
starting late Wed night. Aloft, a broad mid level shortwave
trough dropping into the Upper Midwest late Tue will track E over
the Great Lakes region Wed through Thu. Incoming mid level DPVA and
upper divergence combined with low level moist upglide and high PWs
(up to 250%-300% of normal) support a period of likely to
categorical pops. Earlier model runs had a slower and stronger
shortwave trough and, as a result, had a longer duration of more
moderate rainfall Thu into Fri. Some newer model runs, however, are
trending toward a weaker and slightly faster Great Lakes wave, so we
may see precip arriving sooner (Wed night) and peaking late Thu into
Thu night before exiting our SE early Fri. Storm total rainfall is
expected to generally range from a quarter inch to two-thirds of an
inch, highest in the NW (Triad) where a little urban street flooding
may occur if the rain comes down heavy enough. Temps will be
generally mild, esp lows, with clouds yielding a smaller-than-usual
diurnal range. Even behind this system, there will be no Arctic air
available, thus daily average temps will continue above normal
through the weekend, warmest Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM Monday...

Altocumulus will move east and diminish in coverage over cntl NC
this evening, during which time nwly surface winds will at least
occasionally gust into the teens to 20s kts. Surface winds should
then weaken and become less gusty after midnight.

Outlook: A chance of low-level wind shear will exist Tue night,
followed by a good chance of rain and flight restrictions
accompanying a frontal zone Wed night through early Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...MWS