Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

259
FXUS62 KRAH 161148 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
648 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will weaken and modify over the Carolinas
through Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the region on
Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the area late Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Orographically enhanced cirrus clouds persist across parts of the
northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain in the fast NW flow
aloft behind the departing mid/upper trough over the North Atlantic
and Canadian Maritimes. This is having some warming effect on
temperatures, which are in the upper-20s there in many spots vs
lower-to-mid-20s where skies are clear across the south. Still, with
dew points in the single digits to mid teens, along with light
winds, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the upper-
teens and lower-20s.

Sunny skies will prevail today under continued NW flow aloft and an
Arctic surface high centered to our south that moves offshore. Light
SW return flow and modification of the surface high will help
temperatures get warmer than yesterday, albeit still below normal,
reaching the mid-40s to 50. High clouds will begin moving in from
the west on Tuesday night in advance of the next shortwave moving
into the lower/mid MS Valley. This along with continued light SW
flow and air mass modification will keep lows from getting as cold
as recent nights, generally mid-20s to 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

The warming trend will continue on Wednesday with
south/southwesterly low level flow, along with dry weather.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the in the 50s.
Cloud cover will begin to thicken from the south overnight as lead
initial s/w disturbance approaches the area from the southwest. Any
precip will hold off until Thursday though. However, the increasing
moisture/cloud cover will have an impact on overnight lows. For now
will keep lows in the 30s, but we may need to raise lows if the
guidance trends faster with this system (40s).

Rain/showers will overspread the area on Thursday as the lead s/w
disturbance moves into the region ahead of the deepening trough to
the west of the area. Expect we`ll see an in-situ CAD boundary
develop across the our region with high temps likely ranging from
the mid/upper 40s across our far nw Piedmont to the 60s to near 70
across our far southeast. While no flooding is expected this should
be a good wetting rain, with rainfall amount of up to 0.50 inch
possible, with locally higher amounts (Thursday into Thursday night).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1145 PM Monday...

* Wet Thu night, with areas of fog possible in lingering, in-situ
  cold air damming over the nw Piedmont
* Clouds and a chance of rain/showers linger early Fri, with
  clearing and otherwise seasonable and dry conditions through Sat
* Milder and with just a slight chance of rain Sun into Sun night
* Cooler/more seasonable and dry Mon

The models indicate a highly amplified shortwave trough may assume
negative tilt while pivoting across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
and New England Fri-Fri night, with associated glancing but strong
height falls across cntl NC early Fri, when the aforementioned
chance of rain will linger. In its wake, continued progressive flow
will become quasi-zonal across the mid-latitudes, around a sub-
tropical ridge forecast to migrate from the sern Pacific to MX and
the srn Plains. Another shortwave trough will then progress across
the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, but there are larger
than average differences in its associated amplitude and degree of
influence, if at all, in cntl NC.

At the surface, a pair of fronts will probably be in the process of
merging and moving ewd and across cntl NC early Fri. Following,
~1025mb high pressure will migrate quickly ewd and across and
offshore the Southeast through Sat. A warm front will develop ewd
from the Mid-South to the srn Middle Atlantic Sat night and Sun,
where it will linger ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will
move across the srn Middle Atlantic Sun night. Rain chances with
each appear low at this time, given the weak but still uncertain
influence of the aforementioned shortwave trough across the
northeast quarter of the nation this weekend. A strong, ~1030-1035
mb high will follow and ridge across the Middle Atlantic Mon, with
cooler and dry, nely flow directed across cntl NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 AM Tuesday...

VFR will prevail across central NC through the next 24 hours. A deck
of orographically enhanced cirrus continues across the northern
Piedmont and northern/central Coastal Plain, but it will dissipate
by mid morning. Otherwise, Arctic high pressure over the Southeast
US will move east and offshore today, resulting in sunny skies and
light SSW winds. Some high clouds will move in from the west by
early Wednesday morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. Flight
restrictions and rain will accompany a frontal system across the
region Thu-Thu night. Additionally, low-level wind shear will be
possible Wed morning. VFR and dry weather will return on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Danco/MWS