Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

428
FXUS62 KRAH 161032
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
632 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Forecast solutions featuring a more progressive front pushing
  into and lingering over the Carolinas is becoming more
  likely; favoring more persistent cloud cover and more
  seasonable temperatures on Saturday, which could lingering
  into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

1) The chance for storms returns to the forecast late this week
Friday and into early next week as a humid airmass returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The chance for storms returns to the forecast
late this week Friday and into early next week as a humid
airmass returns.

The anomalous upper ridge over the region is forecast to
gradually shift west toward the southern Plains of the US late
this week and weekend into the early part of next week. As that
happens, west to northwest flow in the mid-upper levels will
allow for a frontal system to approach Friday into Saturday.
Moisture levels will correspondingly increase to well above
seasonal normals with precipitable water values around 2 inches
Friday and Friday night. These moisture levels are expected to
remain elevated near the 90th percentile for mid-September in
the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range through early next week.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance has shown a more
progressive cold front on Friday compared to previous solutions,
leading to an increase in storm chances late Friday into Friday
night. The front is expected to drop in from the northeast,
though perhaps stall out over the area Saturday before washing
out sometime late this weekend Sunday. Shear profiles are quite
unremarkable Friday, such that a severe threat is not expected
at this point. But the boundary nearby will favor that isolated
to scattered storm activity during peak heating.

From Sunday onward, ensemble guidance continues to show a
potential unsettled pattern, albeit with low predictability, for
afternoon and evening isolated/scattered storms. The pattern is
not really conducive to widespread activity, but well above
average moisture levels will promote this storm chance.

For temperatures, we end the week generally in the lower 90s,
falling into mainly the mid 80s to around 90 through the
remainder of the period. Dewpoints get soupy into the low 70s
this weekend, resulting in an end to the comfortable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF
period. Mist lingering around RWI due to local effects is expected
to persist until shortly after sunrise before dissipating. Otherwise
light and variable winds with FEW afternoon cumulus around 4,000 ft
is expected through the daylight hours. Brief east-southeast flow
over the Coastal Plain tonight will increase crossover temperatures
to around 60 degrees and may result in another round of mist, and
perhaps periodic fog, around RWI into Thurs morning as surface
conditions go calm.

Outlook: A risk of shallow, radiation fog/mist at RWI will continue
for Fri morning. Widely scattered convection over wrn NC Thu
afternoon may drift into the INT vicinity by early evening, followed
by a better chance of convection along a passing cold front Friday
afternoon-evening, especially over the Piedmont. Nely flow behind
that front will increase the chances for IFR-MVFR ceilings Sat
morning, lowest and most likely at INT/GSO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...AS/MWS