Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS62 KRAH 011823
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
223 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM Saturday...

1) The chance of showers and storms will increase - first across
western zones this afternoon-tonight, then throughout cntl NC on
Sunday.

2) Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected Monday
through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The chance of showers and storms will increase -
first across western zones this afternoon-tonight, then throughout
cntl NC on Sunday.

Southwesterly flow aloft, and deep moisture characterized by PW
values of 2-2.5 inches and 125-150% of normal, will be directed
across the Carolinas and southern Middle Atlantic ahead of a mid and
upper-level trough that will pivot into the OH and lower MS Valleys
through Sunday and then weaken while drifting into the TN Valley and
southern Appalachians through early Mon. Several MCVs will probably
be embedded within that swly flow regime across the South Atlantic
states and may locally focus ascent along their track.

At the surface, moist, sly/sely flow will continue across the
Carolinas, in a moist/warm sector downstream of a ~1003 mb low that
will drift across the OH Valley. A diffuse, outflow-reinforced
differential heating zone, between initial waves of convection and
lower and more-widespread overcast over wrn NC, may develop over the
Piedmont through Sunday.

As forcing for ascent and increasing deep moisture edge ewd ahead of
the aforementioned trough aloft, with related lifting and removal of
a prominent temperature inversion around 700 mb on regional RAOBs
this morning, waves of diurnally-maximzed convection will develop
into initially the srn and wrn Piedmont this afternoon-tonight. That
regime should then continue ewd and across cntl NC Sun-Sun night,
probably focused along MCVs and perhaps in a band along the
aforementioned surface boundary over the Piedmont. Deeply moist,
uninhibited, and conditionally unstable profiles --weakly to
moderately so-- will otherwise favor the development of scattered to
locally numerous cells amid 25-30 kts of swly flow. A (Marginal)
risk of water-loaded, damaging downbursts will result. Although
heavy downpours will also result, relatively fast cell motions to
the northeast will counter some tendency for training and
consequently limit the overall risk of flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected
Monday through Friday.

Aloft, expect persistent deep swly flow into the area Mon and Tue as
central NC sits on the eastern side of a trough/remnant s/w low,
with Bermuda high pressure to the east. The trough/low should
weaken/lift newd by mid-week. While Bermuda high remains in place to
the east, another trough with embedded shortwaves will progress ewd
across the nrn CONUS, from the Plains to the Northeast, Wed through
Sat. How far south and east the trough extends will depend on the
strength and position of the Bermuda high. At the surface, still
expect a persistent sly component of the wind across much of the
area, as no fropa is expected to occur, with continued advection of
warm, moist air into the area through the week. GFS forecast
soundings indicate PWATs around or above 2" across much of the area
through at least mid-week, highest Mon and Tue, with the best
instability (300-800 J/Kg) and shear (~20 kts) on Mon. Best chance
for showers and storms will be Monday, with the chance for generally
diurnally driven showers and storms to continue through the rest of
the week. All of central NC is in a Marginal Risk from the WPC for
excessive rainfall on Mon, with a continued risk across the east on
Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Increasing low-level and deep moisture will favor both a
redevelopment and ewd expansion of MVFR-IFR ceilings across cntl NC
overnight-early Sunday, and also waves of diurnally-maximized
convection initially over the wrn Piedmont this afternoon-tonight
and at all cntl NC terminals on Sunday.

Outlook: The moist and unsettled pattern of waves of convection, and
flight restrictions that will maximize each overnight-morning, will
continue through Tue, then gradually lose influence amid a return to
a somewhat more-typical summertime pattern mid to late next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/MWS
AVIATION...MWS