Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KRAH 261830
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The NBM has trended a few degrees warmer with temperatures Friday
  through Tuesday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

1) An unsettled pattern will develop for the end of the work week,
with Friday afternoon into Saturday the most likely time period for
showers/storms.

2) Above normal temperatures return to the forecast by Monday and
continue into the beginning of September.

$$

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An unsettled pattern will develop for the end of
the work week, with Friday afternoon into Saturday the most likely
time period for showers/storms.

A cold front approaching the region will slow dramatically once it
reaches central North Carolina early Friday, likely taking most of
Friday and Saturday to make it the rest of the way to the coastline.
While the precipitation shield will not remain completely on the
warm side of the front, expect anywhere between a 50-70% chance for
showers/storms on Friday, with the highest chances across the
southeast. The entire forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of
5) risk for severe weather that day, which would primarily come from
damaging wind. While there is not much wind shear in the vertical
profile to help organize storms, there could be anywhere between
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, depending on the model solution. In
addition, there is a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall generally to the west of US-1 and a slight (level 2 of 4)
risk to the east of US-1. Not only will there not be much wind shear
to organize storms, the wind itself will generally be light through
the profile, resulting in slow storm movement. As the front shifts
east on Saturday, the chance of rain will drop to 20-70%, with
southeastern locations still having the highest risk. The marginal
risk for excessive rainfall will continue everywhere on Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures return to the forecast by
Monday and continue into the beginning of September.

Once the front slips offshore, an upper ridge will develop over the
southeastern United States. This will bring the surface wind out of
the southwest or the west, with downsloping wind off the mountains.
This will bring a return of high temperatures to the mid 90s
areawide. Record high temperatures are generally in the triple
digits, so record highs shouldn`t be set during this time period.
Still, it will be a hot and dry start to the month of September.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

Afternoon-evening showers and storms will focus along a front over
SC, and with lesser coverage in NC over the mountains and along a
developing lee/Piedmont trough near INT/GSO. VFR conditions will
persist otherwise and elsewhere in cntl NC until Thu morning, when
return flow moistening will support the development of areas of low
stratus and/or fog.

Outlook: There will be a chance of morning stratus/fog and diurnally-
maximized showers and storms Thu-Sat, as moisture increases in sly
flow between offshore high pressure and a cold front that will
approach from the northwest and move into cntl NC late Fri night-
Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...MWS