Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

619
FXUS62 KRAH 100004
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
802 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 802 PM Monday...

* Updated aviation discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM Monday...

1) Unseasonably warm temperatures through midweek are likely to meet
or exceed records on Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Low predictability severe threat along a strong cold frontal
passage Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonably warm temperatures through midweek are
likely to meet or exceed records on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The weak front stretched across central NC today, largely marked by
a dew point gradient, will dissipate by tonight. A mid/upper ridge
will then build across the Southeast US on Tuesday and Wednesday as
a Bermuda surface high persists off the coast. This will set the
stage for a record period of warmth on both days. While today will
be quite warm with highs in the mid-70s to 80 (15 to 20 degrees
above normal), increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front will bring a
further rise in low-level thicknesses. Forecast highs on Tuesday are
mostly in the lower-80s, and Wednesday will be even warmer with
highs in the mid-to-upper-80s. The current forecast would come very
close to or break record high temperatures at all three climate
sites (GSO, RDU, and FAY) on both days. Temperatures on Tuesday
night are only expected to drop to the lower-60s in most areas,
which would come very close to high minimum temperature records as
well.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Low predictability severe threat along a strong
cold frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday.

Aloft, the pattern for mid-late week remains complex, with multiple
shortwaves (primarily one nrn stream and one srn stream) moving ewd
across the cntl and ern CONUS within the longwave trough Wed and
Thu. The srn stream s/w low will open into a trough as it progresses
ewd across the Gulf Coast and eventually off the Southeast US coast,
while the nrn stream s/w trough moves ewd across the OH/TN Valley
and mid-Atlantic, Wed night/Thu. The shortwaves should both be
offshore by Fri morning. At the surface, the parent low should lift
enewd across the srn and ern Great Lakes Wed, with the attendant
cold front, extending swwd across the mid-MS valley and into the srn
Plains, strengthening. The low will continue enewd across the
Northeast US Wed night, the cold front progressing ewd to roughly
along the Appalachians Wed night. A secondary sfc low beneath the
srn stream s/w will continue ewd across the Gulf Coast Wed night
Thu, as the cold front progresses ewd across the area on Thu. The
front should be offshore by Thu night. There are still some
differences in the guidance wrt the timing of showers moving into
the area, as well as the fropa. Given the generally unfavorable
diurnal timing of the front, especially in the west, it remains
uncertain how much of a severe threat there may be, with better
chances farther east with later timing and a better chance for
destabilization. Will hopefully have a better idea of that threat
over the coming days when more hi-res guidance is available for that
time period. If the front slows down, that could result in a better
chance for heating/destabilization, and thus potentially stronger
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 802 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through
much of the 24 hour TAF period as weak high pressure and light
southwesterly flow remain in place. Through the evening, all low
stratus across the western Piedmont and Sandhills has
lifted/dissipated, leaving mainly scattered cumulus around 58 kft
ceilings across the region. Winds will remain light from the SW to W
generally 10 kt or less, diminishing overnight. Overnight into early
Tue morning, patchy fog or low stratus may bring very brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions, with the highest confidence at KFAY and KRWI between
roughly 0814Z. Elsewhere, including KINT/KGSO and KRDU, any
restrictions should be brief and localized.

After sunrise, any fog/stratus will quickly lift with VFR and little
to no restrictions returning area-wide. A weak disturbance may bring
a slight chance of light showers late Tuesday morning, highest
chance near KFAY, but impacts should be minimal. Winds will remain
light, generally WSW around 510 kt.

Outlook: Patchy morning fog/stratus is possible again Wednesday.
Otherwise VFR will dominate through Wednesday before conditions
deteriorate late Wed night into Thursday with a strong cold front
bringing showers and thunderstorms, sub-VFR conditions, and gusty
winds. VFR returns Fri into Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974
March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980
March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/KCP
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH