Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

916
FXUS62 KRAH 230927
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
427 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 150 AM Friday...

* Milder today with a chance of light rain, mainly in the south. The
  arctic front will move through from the north tonight, with very
  cold air to follow Saturday into Sunday.

* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm continues to
  increase, with continued greater focus on icing and sleet
  potential late Saturday through the weekend, and very cold
  temperatures for most areas through the storm.

* Continued high confidence in bitterly cold temperatures again
  behind the winter storm on Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Friday...

1) This is the time to prepare for the winter storm and very cold
temperatures this weekend. Today will be relatively mild and mostly
dry. The arctic front will move through the region tonight
introducing very cold air for the weekend.

2) The Winter Storm Watch continues for Saturday afternoon into
early Monday for all of central NC with continued increasing
confidence significant wintry precipitation from Saturday afternoon
through early Monday morning. The focus will be on sleet and
freezing rain. It will be dangerously cold with readings in the
upper teens and 20s through much of the winter storm over the
Piedmont.

3) Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values expected
Monday night/Tuesday morning following the storm.

4) Very cold temperatures expected through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Today is the time to prepare for the winter storm
and very cold temperatures this weekend. Today will be relatively
mild and mostly dry. A brief light period of rain is possible,
mainly south and east this afternoon. Highs will be mostly in the 45-
52 range N to S.

The arctic front will dive south through the region tonight.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the teens NE and 20s
elsewhere by daybreak Saturday. Wind chill readings will fall into
the single digits and teens late tonight through mid day Saturday.
High temperatures Saturday should remain in the 20s north ranging
into the mid 30s south. The winter precipitation should arrive in
the west and north in the very late afternoon into the evening with
snow and sleet at the onset. More on the storm below.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The Winter Storm Watch continues for Saturday
afternoon into early Monday for all of central NC with continued
increasing confidence of significant wintry precipitation from
Saturday afternoon through early Monday morning. The focus will be
on sleet and freezing rain. It will be dangerously cold with
readings in the upper teens and 20s through much of the winter storm
over the Piedmont.

A polar vortex will progress across Atlantic Canada Sat and wobble
over the Labrador Sea through the remainder of the weekend. At its
base, initially quasi-zonal flow across the lwr mid-latitudes, and a
strong west-east-oriented upr jet across the OH Valley and nrn
Middle Atlantic, will undergo amplification and back to swly, as a
complex and net, positively-tilted trough progresses from the
Rockies to the Great Lakes through mid MS Valley. That trough will
be preceded by the deamplifying remnants of a mid/upr-level cyclone
now paralleling the srn CA and Baja coast, which the models indicate
will eject rapidly from the Baja Peninsula at 12Z Sat, to the srn
Plains by 12Z Sun, then off the New England and nrn Middle Atlantic
coast by 12Z Mon. The progression of the polar vortex, and
amplification/backing of flow at its base and in its wake, will
advect warm air centered around 850 mb rapidly newd and across the
Southeast and srn Middle Atlantic during the latter half of the
weekend, such that sub-zero 850 mb temperatures over cntl NC at 12Z
Sat are forecast to markedly increase to between 10-15 C by Sun
evening.

At the surface, a nearly 1050 mb, Arctic high, now centered along
the MT/SK border with minus 30 F surface temperatures and dewpoints,
will progress sewd to the upr MS Valley around 1045 mb by 12Z Sat,
then ewd and across the Great Lakes and Northeast around 1040 mb
through 12Z Sun, then retreat poleward and weaken considerably to
sub-1030 mb across Atlantic Canada by 12Z Mon. It will be favorably
strong and located and dammed east of the Appalachians for a
significant (classical, diabatically-enhanced) cold air damming
episode through much of Sun, before weakening and retreating
poleward late Sun and especially Sun night. Around its srn
periphery, a pattern of Miller Type "B" or Miller Type "A/B"
cyclogenesis will result, with a couple of initial lows forecast to
track across the TN and OH Valleys (inland) and along and offshore
the srn Middle Atlantic coast (coastal), respectively, during which
time the models indicate a third low will track across GA and the
ern Carolinas. An associated surface wet bulb freezing line roughly
along the NC coast on Sat will probably retreat nwwd across the NC
Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills Sun afternoon-evening, then perhaps
briefly into the Piedmont by or shortly after midnight Mon morning.
This surface pattern will favor corridors of predominant
precipitation-types that will likely include significant
accumulation/accrual of sleet/freezing rain over cntl NC.

The sensible weather related to the synoptic pattern described above
will feature an increasingly cloudy and cold, but dry most of Sat,
with virga that will likely begin to reach the ground across the nrn
Piedmont late in the afternoon or by evening. It will do so during a
time when partial thickness values and top-down both suggest snow
would, for the first few or so hours, be the predominant
precipitation type, and when most any snow would be able to
accumulate - perhaps an inch or so over the nrn Piedmont, depending
upon how quickly it can reach the ground. The time window for snow
will be limited, however, as the aforementioned significant warming
aloft (centered around 850 mb) noses rapidly newd and promotes a
changeover to sleet overnight, and as strong QG ascent (related to
the mid-level warming via WAA) increases throughout cntl NC.

Further, significant warming aloft will ensue Sun-Sun night, when
forecast 850-700 mb partial thickness values are off the nomogram
high at around 1600 meters, with an associated general sse to nnw
mixing with or changeover to a predominance of freezing rain, as
those warm nose temperatures increase well above values to
completely melt any snow/ice nuclei falling through it. Despite that
complete melting, underlying cold nose temperatures are forecast to
be atypically cold (~minus 10C) and sufficiently so to yield
additional ice nucleation in the lowest couple of thousand ft AGL;
and that may allow for periods of continued snow and sleet
production, with crystal habits of the former that would favor
columns/prisms/needles that would not accumulate very efficiently,
particularly if accompanied by freezing rain as expected. The
aforementioned nwwd retreat of the surface wet bulb freezing line
into at least the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain will favor a
brief changeover to all rain there Sun evening-early Sun night, and
possibly into parts of the Piedmont including Raleigh, however
briefly around midnight.

Forecast storm total liquid equivalent amounts are slightly lower
than previously forecast and range from around 0.75" in the srn
Coastal Plain, to around 1-1.25" across the Triangle, to 1.75-2" in
the far nrn/nw Piedmont (Triad).

We are relatively confident in the aforementioned corridors of
precipitation types that will be mostly ice and a combination of
sleet/freezing rain in cntl NC, but exact amounts remain somewhat in
question given the duration of when each will be predominant, and
what precipitation rates are during each. The best estimate at the
moment would be for 2-4" of frozen (ie. snow and mostly sleet across
the far nrn/nw Piedmont, to around one inch frozen around the
Triangle, to Trace frozen over the srn tier. Freezing rain accrual,
which would be mostly on top of frozen, or mixed with any that may
linger given the atypically cold and possibly ice nucleating cold
nose, are forecast to maximize between 0.5-0.75" over the srn
through ne Piedmont, just to the south and southeast of the max
frozen totals over the nw Piedmont. That maximum will be surrounded
by somewhat lighter accrual, but still mostly one quarter to one
half inch, relatively lightest to the southeast and across the
Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain, where both a changeover to
plain rain by Sun evening and also lesser liquid equivalent amounts
will likely result. An upgrade to Winter Storm Warning will likely
be warranted for all of cntl NC later today, or tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values
expected Monday night/Tuesday morning following the storm.

A Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch or Warning may be
needed.

The bitter cold is expected to arrive Monday and peak on Monday
night and Tuesday. Actual lows may fall into the single digits, with
wind chill readings Monday night and Tuesday morning likely from 5
below to 5 above zero. Actual highs Tuesday will only be in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. This will be followed by lows of 10 to 18 on
Tuesday night.

These temperatures may approach daily records, and daily highs may
come close to record low daily maxima as well, especially if we have
a persistent layer of snow/sleet/ice on the ground.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Bitter and possibly some record cold temperatures
are expected through much of the week.

Current projections indicate extremely cold temperatures all week,
with some moderation around mid-week, followed by another arctic
surge into the region later in the week.

Some areas may generally remain below freezing all week, even during
the daytime. The mildest day may be Wednesday when some areas may
only push near 40. Overnight lows will be in the teens for most
locations all week, with some readings in the single digits Monday
night and again Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Friday...

Radar is showing pockets of light rain, but much of these radar
echoes are having a hard time reaching the ground, due to a dry sub-
cloud layer below 6 to 10 kft. Thus, we did not include any mention
of -RA in the TAFs to start the period, though cannot rule out a
stray shower at FAY. Increasing WAA atop a surface cold frontal zone
will favor the development of some MVFR stratus in and near FAY Fri
afternoon to early evening, where some light rain may develop at the
same time. Confidence was highest for light rain at FAY, though a
brief period could occur at RDU and RWI between 17 and 23z Fri.
Winds will be light through the period, out of the north.

An arctic front will push in from the north tonight which could
produce some gusty winds for a period especially at KRWI/KRDU. Will
likely need to add some gusts to the 12Z package.

Outlook: Confidence continues to increase in a potential winter
storm this weekend, which will likely bring a wintry mix of sleet
and ice Sat night through Sun. Periods of LLWS may also be possible
during this time with a strong low-level jet atop a surface stable
layer. VFR conditions should return early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KRDU: 10/1940

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/MWS
AVIATION...Luchetti/Kren