Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

782
FXUS62 KRAH 082340
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* After Isaias weakens and becomes post-tropical over the TN and lwr
  OH Valleys late Sat and Sat night, a separate wave of low pressure
  will develop and track across the Carolinas on Sunday, along a
  frontal zone draped around the southeastern periphery of cold air
  damming high pressure. Beneficial, stratiform rain will
  consequently overspread cntl NC late Sat into Sun.

* A relative maximum of storm total precipitation in cntl NC will
  probably result in the ern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where a
  retreating wedge/warm front may focus a band of convective
  precipitation, and risk for embedded mesocyclones capable of
  producing an isolated tornado, on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

1) Above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

2) As the remnants of Isaias track through the Tennessee Valley and
push tropical moisture northeastward, Central NC will experience
unsettling weather with showers and storms from Saturday
afternoon/evening through Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures are expected through
Friday.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through the region tonight
into early Friday. Ahead of the front, weak downslope winds and
rising low-level thicknesses will propel afternoon highs some 6-10
degrees above normal in the lower to middle 80s.

Behind the front, cooler high pressure settles in Friday, gradually
strengthening into Saturday over the Mid-Atlantic region. Northeast
flow tomorrow will promote lower daytime highs but still a few
degrees above average in the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints will be a
touch higher today, but drier air works in behind the front Friday
for another comfortable afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 40s
over most of central NC.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As the remnants of Isaias track through the
Tennessee Valley and push tropical moisture northeastward, Central
NC will experience unsettling weather with showers and storms from
Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night.

Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon, with widespread rainfall
driven by strong isentropic lift peaking between Saturday evening
and Sunday. Models show a brief lull midday Sunday before a final
broken band of showers and storms passes through Sunday afternoon
and evening. Conditions will clear rapidly from west to east
overnight into Monday morning.

Storm totals across Central NC will average 1 to 2 inches, though
localized urban or poor-drainage flooding is possible. Cold Air
Damming set up will keep totals lower across the NW Piedmont (~0.5
to 1 inch), while a secondary low development along the coast will
result in localized higher amounts across the eastern Piedmont and
Coastal Plain.

The severe threat remains low overall due to limited instability in
a high-shear, Low-CAPE environment. However, a few isolated strong
to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out
Sunday afternoon/evening, primarily across the far eastern and
southeastern areas.

The CAD wedge will keep conditions cool and damp over the weekend,
with highs in the mid/upper 60s NW to low 70s in the SE and breezy
easterly flow before sunshine returns Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
across cntl NC through Fri. A moisture-starved cold front will move
across central NC tonight, with winds veering around to nly-nely by
Fri morning. Some gusts into the teens kts are possible Fri aft/eve.

Outlook: Stratiform rain will overspread cntl NC late Saturday into
Sunday. Cold air damming and flight restrictions will result and be
slow to erode, if at all over the Piedmont, through Sunday. The cold
air damming regime and flight restrictions will probably be
eradicated at FAY and RWI, and more broadly across ern and e-cntl
NC, by the nwwd retreat/passage of a warm/wedge front Sunday
afternoon. A band of heavier, convective precipitation may form
along or near that front Sunday afternoon, amid otherwise
lifting/scattering of low ceilings with its passage and eradication
of the cold air damming airmass.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/CA
AVIATION...10/MWS