Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

973
FXUS62 KRAH 151102
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
702 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will extend across the southern Appalachians and
Carolinas ahead of a moisture-starved, backdoor cold front that will
move south through the area tonight. Canadian high pressure will
follow and build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...

A weak and moisture-starved mid-level trough will progress across NC
this afternoon and evening, in nwly flow between a cyclone forecast
to develop over ME by the end of the period and a srn Plains sub-
tropical high that featured observed 500 mb heights of 594-596 dam
last evening that exceeded most on record outside of the summer
months from the srn Plains to the lwr-mid MS Valley.

At the surface, high pressure will weaken over the Southeast today,
while a trough will develop and strengthen in the lee of the srn
Appalachians. Meanwhile, Canadian high pressure will build from the
upr MS Valley to the Carolinas, led southward by an ill-defined and
moisture-starved backdoor cold front that will move south through
the area early tonight.

While skies should average partly to mostly sunny throughout cntl
NC, continued moist, nnely flow and the wrn edge of stratocumulus
ceilings now over ern NC will probably develop wwd into the ern
reaches of RAH`s Coastal Plain later this morning, before collapsing
toward the coast through the afternoon-evening. While that cloud
cover will likely keep temperatures there several degrees cooler
than across the rest of cntl and wrn NC through early this
afternoon, 2-3 hours of afternoon sunshine there allow high
temperatures to warm into the mid 70s, ranging to upr 70s and to
around 80 from INT to AFP and especially points wwd to CLT and HKY.

The passage of the backdoor cold front early tonight will probably
be a mostly uneventful one, as it will be a dry one; and point
forecast soundings indicate stronger nely flow/momentum will ride
atop a nocturnally-cooled and stable near surface layer (ie. post-
frontal gustiness will be isolated if at all). There will, however,
be several degree cooling behind the front, with low temperatures in
the mid 40s to lwr 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Wednesday...

Dry, nwly to nnwly flow aloft will persist over cntl NC, between a
progressive ridge that will extend from the cntl Gulf Coast to the
Great Lakes by 12Z Fri and a cyclone that will dig across the nwrn
Atlantic.

At the surface, the center of Canadian high pressure will progress
from the Great Lakes to the cntl Appalachians, while its associated
ridge will extend throughout the Middle and South Atlantic states.
Dry and cool, and cooler than average, nly flow will result across
cntl NC, with high temperatures in the mid 60s to lwr 70s and lows
mostly in the upr 30s to lwr 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

Dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue on Friday under the
influence of NW flow aloft between a high-amplitude ridge over the
TN/OH Valleys and a deep cyclone in the Atlantic. At the surface, a
Canadian high will move SE from the northern Appalachians to the
southern Mid-Atlantic. This will bring another cool day to central
NC with highs only ranging from lower-to-mid-60s in the far NE to
near 70 in the far SW. Dew points will also be quite low, in the 30s
to lower-40s. A weak mid-level perturbation will result in some high
clouds on Friday night, but no precipitation is expected. Lows will
be a bit milder than Thursday night and close to normal, generally
in the 40s.

Saturday will again be dry and sunny, but the mid/upper ridge will
then begin to flatten as it moves across the Northeast US and Mid-
Atlantic. This is in response to phasing shortwaves over the Central
US that result in a deep trough (possibly even closed low) that
moves east and stretches across the Upper Great Lakes and TN Valley
by Sunday. This will induce a surface cyclone over the Upper Great
Lakes early Sunday which deepens and moves NNE into Canada. A cold
front to its south will move east and cross central NC on Sunday
night. So clouds will increase on Saturday night and Sunday, with a
chance of showers from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models
are in fairly good agreement on timing, so increased POPs to 30-50%
(highest north) on Sunday evening, which is when a majority of
GFS/ECM/CMC ensemble members depict precipitation. Guidance has
trended a bit wetter compared to last night, particularly the ECMWF
which depicts a deeper trough and secondary low developing over the
Mid-Atlantic. Still, rainfall amounts should be limited with the
best upper forcing to our north and meager instability (less than
500 J/kg of CAPE). Even the 90th percentile of ensemble members is a
half inch to an inch on the ECM and a quarter to half an inch on the
GFS and CMC. So not expecting a significant dent in the ongoing
abnormally dry and drought conditions across our region. As for
temperatures, the surface high moving to our east and SW flow ahead
of the front will turn us warmer on Saturday and Sunday with highs
in the 70s. Lows will be in the upper-40s to mid-50s.

Monday and Tuesday will turn sunny and cooler behind the front.
Forecast highs are in the upper-60s to lower-70s on Monday and lower-
to-mid-70s on Tuesday, with lows in the mid-40s to 50 on Monday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday...

A band of MVFR ceilings, in continued moist, nnely flow over ern NC
and sern VA, may edge swwd and across RWI for a few hours later this
morning. Otherwise, nly surface winds will strengthen with daytime
heating and may gust at times mainly between 13-18Z at the ern three
TAF sites.

Outlook: Canadian high pressure will favor VFR conditions in cntl
NC as it builds across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thu through
Sat. A chance of showers and flight restrictions will result ahead
of and along a cold front that will move across the area late Sun
and Sun night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...MWS