Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

071
FXUS62 KRAH 271812
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from the earlier forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

1) A slow moving front will bring the potential for both damaging
wind gusts and severe thunderstorms this afternoon through Saturday.

2) Above normal temperatures to start the month of September.

$$

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving front will bring the potential for
both damaging wind gusts and severe thunderstorms this afternoon
through Saturday.

A cold front currently along the Appalachian Mountains will slide
southeast over the next couple of days. While scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, coverage in thunderstorms
will peak on Friday, then decrease Saturday and especially into
Sunday. There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) threat for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily northwest of I-85. The
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms expands across the entire
forecast area for Friday, with the threat both days coming from
damaging wind gusts. In addition, there is a risk for excessive
rainfall - a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) everywhere this afternoon,
marginal/slight (level 2 of 4) risk Friday (marginal west of US-1,
slight east of US-1), and a marginal risk nearly everywhere on
Saturday. Storm motion will be slow, and this will allow for the
potential that showers and storms will repeatedly move over the same
location. Effective wind shear will be at or below 30 kt, limiting
the amount of organization that will occur with the thunderstorms
that develop.

As of 2pm, the bulk of the showers so far today had been across the
western half of the forecast area, although activity is expected to
increase during the afternoon in southern counties. On Friday, the
greatest chance for rain (~60%) should be southeast of the I-85
corridor. Different ensembles are depicting an axis of heavier
rainfall in slightly different locations Friday afternoon, likely
somewhere along or east of the US-1 corridor. However, both the HREF
and REFS solutions generally fall into the area of slight risk of
excessive rainfall, so this is consistent.  The bulk of the activity
shifts to the I-95 corridor for Saturday afternoon, with just an
isolated shower/storm along I-95 Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures to start the month of
September.

Aloft, the trough will weaken as it shifts ewd on Sat, with the
ridge building into the region Sun through mid-week. The guidance
varies with the overall location and orientation of the high from
Sun onward, which could impact the heating and convection potential.
At the surface, a pressure trough may remain in place across the
area through mid-week, with high pressure offshore and over the
Appalachians. Low level thicknesses should generally be in the 1405m
to 1420m range across the area. Temperatures should be near normal
on Sat, then moderate through mid-week, with highs in the low to mid
90s (8-12 degrees above normal) and lows in the low to mid 70s to
start the month of September.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Flight restrictions have been slow to lift
today, but by 18Z, all terminals are expected to have cloud bases
above 3000 ft. Precipitation will be scattered today. Tweaked the
inherited timing for PROB30 groups for when the most likely period
of rain is at each site, but did have enough confidence to go with a
period of likely showers at FAY. There is a chance that the showers
could bring localized restrictions, but did not have enough
confidence to include that at this point. After midnight, expect
widespread flight restrictions to develop. At INT/GSO, LIFR
conditions are likely, while farther to the east, MVFR/IFR cig/vis
is forecast. It appears probable that restrictions could continue at
FAY all the way through 18Z Friday, although other sites are likely
to scatter out before then. The wind will be out of the south less
than 10 kt this afternoon, veering to the southwest overnight.

Outlook: Friday afternoon is expected to be the day with the most
widespread precipitation, with anywhere between 60-80%
probabilities. Showers/storms will steadily decrease in coverage
from day to day, with INT/GSO likely dry on Saturday, then just a
slight chance of showers/storms at RWI/RDU/FAY on Sunday. All
locations should be dry for Monday and Tuesday. Widespread IFR/LIFR
stratus is forecast Saturday morning, and this could continue for a
few days.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/10
AVIATION...Green