Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

286
FXUS62 KRAH 041917
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
217 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* While rainfall amounts are still expected to be low, the chance
  for rain has gone up tonight, particularly across western counties.

* A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for strong to locally severe
  wind gusts on Friday along and east of the I-95 corridor and as
  far west as the Triangle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

1) Although substantial rainfall is not expected tonight, the chance
for showers will increase after midnight.

2) Shallow and isolated convection brings negligible rain amounts
through Thurs with shower and storm chances maximizing ahead of and
along a cold front on Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Although substantial rainfall is not expected
tonight, the chance for showers will increase after midnight.

There have been a few sprinkles through the late morning and early
afternoon hours, but nothing that would accumulate. Although the
primary round of accumulating rainfall will occur Thursday night
into Friday, an upper level shortwave is expected to bring some rain
to the area tonight. While rainfall amounts will not be terribly
high (expect less than a quarter inch), models have trended upward
with the chance for rain tonight, especially in the Triad. The
coverage of showers should be rather isolated by sunrise on
Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Shallow and isolated convection brings negligible
rain amounts through Thurs with shower and storm chances maximizing
ahead of and along a cold front on Fri.

Multiple lobes of mid/upper-lvl low pressure will make up a
positively tilted trough axis stretching from Quebec into the Ohio
Valley and back into the Southern Plains Thurs morning. Several
pieces of vorticity will ripple through the broad cyclonic flow,
slowly shifting the trough eastward, while additional northern
stream waves reinforce the backside of the trough through Thurs
night. Lack of mid/upper level forcing within broad neutral H5
height tendencies will keep convective coverage/intensity very
limited despite increasing afternoon instability as low-lvl theta-e
advection results in around 1000 SBCAPE, primarily across the
Piedmont. Instability maximized in the lowest 3 km and a
considerable amount of dry air in 3-8 km layer on the backside of a
departing upper-lvl wave, will likely keep any afternoon convection
shallow and limited to a quick burst of light rain and mostly
isolated sprinkles through the afternoon and early overnight period.

A disturbance in the basal portion of the positively-tilted trough
axis is expected to swing across the southern Plains and into the OH
and TN Valley`s early Fri morning the pivot across the Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic on Fri. Central NC will likely be glanced by 50-60m
H5 height falls with deeper scale forcing 60-80m height falls and
DPVA expected to remain to our north across the Mid-Atlantic through
Fri afternoon/evening. A pre-frontal trough is expected to shift
generally eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Fri,
preceding the cold front which will likely be bottled up against the
windward side of the Appalachians until late Fri afternoon and
evening.

Considerable cloudiness from stratus and perhaps some fog in the
Coastal Plain and eastern-NC is expected Fri morning in addition to
waves of elevated showers focused around upstream small-scale
disturbances with better rain chances across the eastern Piedmont,
Coastal Plain and Sandhills through the afternoon. Global numerical
guidance varies quite significantly from the hi-res guidance with
rainfall totals and there location through Fri evening; the former
paints greater coverage of beneficial rainfall (1-3") across the
area, while the latter favors mostly around or less than 0.5" for
most locations with narrow swaths of enhanced rainfall (0.75-2")
along the track of these upstream disturbances. This forecast
package leans more heavily into the hi-res guidance and overall
lower-end totals for most locations given limited coverage of
instability > 1000 J/kg, glancing influences from better deep-layer
forcing, questions on persistence of low overcast into the afternoon
hours, and worsening drought over the Carolinas. The severe threat
remains non-zero with low-predictability for Fri. Upper 60s dew
points lifting into the area and overlapping 30-40 kts of 0-6 km
shear will be favorable for providing instability and organization
to any deepening convection. Gradually veering wind profiles, mainly
in the mid/upper-lvls, with a steadily increase in magnitude with
height will be favorable for multicell to transient supercell
characteristics, but limited instability and potential storm
interactions along the track of upstream disturbances may limit
widespread storm longevity and associated severe threat. Primary
risk would be localized strong wind gusts (30-50 mph) around and
east of the I-95 corridor, although infrequent and brief severe wind
gusts of 60 mph can`t be ruled out given the uncertainty expressed
above.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

TAF period: LIFR Fog/stratus from this morning has scattered and
lifted. Think that most places will carry a VFR ceiling through the
afternoon into the evening hours, although some MVFR ceilings will
linger. A shortwave trough should bring showers to INT/GSO (with
more scattered coverage at RDU/FAY) along with another round of
restrictions. Although it should not be as long-lived as what
occurred this morning, the forecast calls for all terminals to at
least briefly drop to LIFR ceilings, along with MVFR/IFR
visibilities. The wind will primarily be out of the southeast
between 5-10 kt, veering to the southwest Thursday morning.

Outlook: INT/GSO may stay MVFR through Thursday afternoon, with yet
another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings forecast Thursday night into
Friday. A cold front will bring rain to all terminals, primarily on
Friday. Once rain comes to an end Friday night, dry VFR conditions
are forecast for the rest of the time period.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KGSO: 83/1946
KRDU: 84/1946
KFAY: 86/1974

November 5:
KGSO: 82/1914
KRDU: 85/2003
KFAY: 86/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KGSO: 65/2003
KRDU: 66/1977
KFAY: 67/2003

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/AS
AVIATION...Green