Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS62 KRAH 291024
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Friday...

1) A wavy frontal zone will buckle northward Saturday and again on
Monday, but rainfall amounts appear limited through the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A wavy frontal zone will buckle northward Saturday
and again on Monday, but rainfall amounts appear limited through the
middle of next week.

A high-latitude omega-blocking pattern will prevail through the
forecast period with a highly anomalous and persistent mid/upper-lvl
ridge extending into central Canada which will be bookended by a
pair of mid/upper-lvl lows over CA and the Canadian maritimes. This
stagnant pattern will favor a series of shortwaves to lock-in mean
troughing over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and push
several reinforcing cold fronts into the area potentially through
Tues.

The quasi-stationary boundary is expected to buckle northward a bit
on Sat but will likely remain well south of central NC. Deep layer
moisture will however be on the rise as the remnants of a mid-lvl
shear axis lifts atop this boundary and into the Carolinas. This
will likely support mostly increased cloud cover and very light rain
and/or virga as forcing for ascent will likely be disjointed. Some
moisture pooling ahead of the approaching cold frontal passage may
support some scattered showers and isolated storms, but widespread
deep convection appears unlikely.

Some shallow moisture return ahead of yet another cold front appears
possible on Mon as an area of surface high pressure shifts off the
Carolina Coast and may result in isolated to scattered showers, but
confidence is low. An added complication highlighted in
deterministic guidance suggests a weak disturbance ejecting
underneath the high-latitude omega block may bring increasing cloud
coverage as well as some virga and very light rain Mon morning.
Better chances for showers will likely be over the upslope terrain
in western NC with orographic forcing overcoming meager instability.
Localized enhancements to convective coverage appear possible along
the track of any storm-scale MCVs, but predictability on these meso-
gamma to meso-beta features is nearly impossible with any degree of
confidence at this time range.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Skies will
continue to clear overall this morning as high pressure noses in
from the north, resulting in drier northeasterly flow today. Winds
will briefly return to southwesterly this evening before another
backdoor cold front and northeasterly flow return Saturday. Showers
will be possible Saturday morning but most likely after 12Z.

Outlook: There will be a chance for sub-VFR conditions in the south
on Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front moves north,
bringing a chance of rain and potentially sub-VFR ceilings.
Additional restrictions may be possible Monday with another cold
frontal passage.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...BLS/LH