Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

490
FXUS62 KRAH 111700
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1200 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A widely isolated shower or sprinkle may accompany the cold front
  Thursday. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds will ensue Thursday in
  the 25-30 mph range.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1200 PM Wednesday...

1) Staying above average through tomorrow. A cold front Thursday
brings much cooler weather by early Friday.

1) The chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first
widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend, followed by continued
below average temperatures and dry conditions that will persist
through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1200 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Staying above average through tomorrow. A cold
front Thursday brings much cooler weather by early Friday.

The above average temperature, albeit short-lived prior to a cold
front tomorrow evening, will continue today and most of the day
tomorrow. Widespread low to middle 70s are expected this afternoon,
followed by upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday, about 8-12 degrees
above seasonal normals.

Satellite imagery currently shows a weak disturbance at mid-levels
tracking east across the Deep South this afternoon and evening. It
will increase our clouds through the day/evening, but we stay dry.

Low pressure across the Mid MS Valley today will reach the Mid-
Atlantic states Thursday, before exiting off the New England coast
early Friday. A pre-frontal trough will be in place tomorrow ahead
of a cold front forecast to move through during the evening hours. A
persistent west-southwest flow Thursday should keep us still mild
most of the day, with the colder air not arriving until overnight.
Low-level thicknesses take a nose dive to around 1320-1325m by
Friday morning, typical of early December. But with a well mixed
boundary layer, forecast lows should range in the upper 30s NW to
low 40s SE.

Ahead of the front, a pair of shortwaves rotating around the larger
trough will provide enough height falls to warrant a widely isolated
shower or sprinkle in the morning across the Triad and eastern areas
in the late afternoon to early evening. Most areas are forecast to
remain dry with little moisture below cloud layer. Wind gusts
along/ahead of the front will gust to 25-30 mph, highest across the
northwest.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The chilliest air of the season will arrive and
support the first widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend,
followed by continued below average temperatures and dry conditions
that will persist through most of next week.

A mid/upr-level cyclone will develop along the srn ON/QC border and
lwr Great Lakes by Fri, then progress slowly across and offshore the
Northeast and Atlantic Canada through the weekend, during which time
a series of shortwave perturbations will progress through the
associated cyclonic flow across and offshore the Middle Atlantic.

At the surface, a cold front trailing a deepening/redeveloping
clipper low will have moved across cntl NC on Thu, with following
cold and dry air advection that will initiate a step down to below
average temperatures for Friday. A following, reinforcing cold front
will slow as it encounters the srn Appalachians Thu night-early Fri,
then move across cntl NC later Fri-early Fri night. High pressure
will follow and build from central Canada to the Middle Atlantic
this weekend through early next week, where it will remain while
gradually weakening/modifying through most of next week.

As temperatures aloft cool beneath the aforementioned cyclone and
shortwave perturbations, a shallow layer of scant instability at the
top of adeeply-mixed boundary layer may accompany the reinforcing
cold front across cntl NC late Fri-early Fri night. Point forecast
soundings indicate that buoyancy will coincide with a similarly
shallow, 3-4 thousand ft deep saturated layer centered around 800 mb
that will extend to near minus 8-10C, such that mixed phase clouds
and precipitation production may result. While the aforementioned
deeply-mixed boundary layer will cause most of that precipitation to
sublimate/evaporate to virga, a few sprinkles will be possible
especially over the ne Piedmont and nrn-cntl Coastal Plain in the
several hours centered around sunset Fri.

That reinforcing front will otherwise usher even chillier and drier
air across cntl NC for the weekend. Point forecast soundings
continue to depict relatively steep low-level lapse rates in CAA
behind it Fri night, which may include a potential for gustiness
between 20-30 kts as a surge of nwly momentum in the residual mixed
layer arrives during the evening. While related mixing should
gradually weaken through Sat morning, it will hinder further
cooling potential via radiative processes. As such, the coldest
temperatures are expected when the CAA wanes and the MSL pressure
gradient relaxes by Sun and Mon morning, when sub-freezing
temperatures appear likely and a hard freeze will be possible
especially in outlying/rural Piedmont locations.

While dewpoints and relative humidity values have been adjusted
lower than both the previous forecast and the latest NBM (with its
systematic high bias), forecast minimum RH for both Fri and Sat are
mostly between 30-40%. Although those values may continue to trend
lower and nearer IFD criteria (25-30%), the greater mitigating
parameters for increased fire danger will be wind/gusts, given only
teens kts momentum transfer indicated in the mixed layer both days,
and cool temperatures in the 50s.

While some moderation will result as the high gradually weakens and
airmass modifies through most of next week, its continued presence
and influence will yield continued below average temperatures and
multiple, consecutive mornings of frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 24-hour TAF
period. Mid and high clouds will stream in from the west this
afternoon and tonight tied to a weak upper-level disturbance. A cold
front approaches Thursday afternoon and evening as a surface low
tracks across northern VA and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday
night. A fast-moving shortwave could generate enough lift to produce
a widely isolated shower during the day, mainly across the Triad
terminals in the morning. A few of the guidance members are
highlighting a brief period of MVFR ceilings at GSO/INT after the
TAF period Thursday evening, tied to a secondary shortwave rotating
around the larger trough. Confidence in this is not great given
general downslope flow but will continue to monitor. Wind gusts will
increase Thursday afternoon out of the west in the 20-25 kt range,
weakening Thursday night.

Outlook: VFR should prevail Thursday night through early next week.
Gusty winds out of the northwest will be prevalent Friday and
Saturday in the 15-25 kt range.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/MWS
AVIATION...Kren