Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS62 KRAH 250445
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1244 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

1) Potentially dangerous heat into early July, briefly interrupted
on Mon-Tues behind a backdoor cold front.

2) Diurnally-maximized chances for convection this weekend will
probably peak Sun, with the passage of a backdoor cold front and
amid nwly flow and with possible upstream convection/MCS influence,
followed by mainly dry conditions most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Potentially dangerous heat into early July, briefly
interrupted on Mon-Tues behind a backdoor cold front.

An elongated sub-tropical ridge is expected to buckle north of the
Carolinas on Fri and spread anomalously warm 850mb temps (~20C) and
mark the return of excessively hot temperatures into the weekend. A
strong mid/upper level low is forecast to dig from the PacNW into
the Northern Rockies by Sun morning. The downstream response will
build a strong mid/upper level ridge and high-latitude omega
blocking pattern that will persist through the forecast period,
although wobble over the Midwest with time.

This pattern will favor a potentially prolonged period of
excessively hot temperatures over the Carolinas, only briefly
interrupted by a weak backdoor cold frontal passage and
isolated/scattered cold frontal convection Sun into Sun night with
cooler temperatures and northeasterly flow lingering into Monday.
Temperatures in the mid/upper 90s to around 100 will become common
Fri and Sat, and perhaps lingering into Sun towards the NC/SC
border. The one saving grace is humidity doesn`t look overly
oppressive during the period, with dew points in the mid-to-upper-
60s during peak heating. Still, heat indices approaching 105 will be
possible from the Triangle south and east by Saturday, and Heat
Advisories may be needed. The intensifying heat across the interior
Atlantic states, and especially over the OH and TN Valleys during
that time, will then probably expand east of the Appalachians and
into cntl NC mid to late next week, when dangerously hot conditions
will become more likely.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally-maximized chances for convection this
weekend will probably peak Sun, with the passage of a backdoor cold
front and amid nwly flow with possible upstream convection/MCS
influence, followed by mainly dry conditions most of next week.

Rich moisture and embedded MCVs from a remnant convective system
currently moving through the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to
meander over the Southeast before lifting northeast and into the
Carolinas Fri morning. This resurgence of deeper moisture will mark
the return for diurnally-maximized chances for convection Fri
through Sun. The better chance of convection (~30-50%) may exist on
Sun, with the passage of the aforementioned backdoor cold front and
amid nwly flow and with possible upstream convection/MCS influence.
The most intense storms will be capable of producing damaging
downbursts given what will be a hot and deeply mixed BL with steep
low-level lapse rates and large dewpoint depressions around 30C.
Anticyclonic, onshore flow will then limit precipitation chances Mon-
Tue outside of any orographic convection in the southern
Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1244 AM Thursday...

Through 06Z Fri:  VFR conditions will continue across central NC
through the next 24 hours, as weak high pressure drifts through the
region. Any cigs will be high thin clouds. Surface winds will be
light and variable early this morning then from the SW at 10 kt
later this morning and for this afternoon.

Looking beyond 06z Fri, VFR conditions will dominate through at
least the first half of Fri. The chance for showers and storms,
mainly afternoon through evening, will increase late Fri and persist
into the weekend. More numerous showers and storms are expected
Sun/Sun night as a cold front moves in from the N.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 26: KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KFAY: 102/1998

June 28: KRDU: 100/1959

June 30: KGSO: 101/1959 KRDU: 105/2012 KFAY: 102/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914

June 29: KGSO: 74/2024 KFAY: 76/1969

June 30: KGSO: 77/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/MWS
AVIATION...Badgett