Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS62 KRAH 061003
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
603 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory issued for portions of central NC

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 208 AM Monday...

1) Unsettled pattern continues today with another round of afternoon
showers and storms along with dangerously high heat indices.

2) Above-normal rain chances continue through Tue, primarily over
the N and E. Lesser coverage is expected Wed through Fri, with more
widely scattered storms, then rain chances increase again heading
into next weekend. Above-normal heat will return briefly from the
Triangle south and east late in the week, but it won`t be nearly as
intense or widespread as the recent heat wave.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 208 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled pattern continues today with another round
of afternoon showers and storms along with dangerously high heat
indices.

Early morning water vapor imagery reveals broad southwesterly flow
across central NC, with an abundance of convective debris across the
Southeast from Sunday`s convection. A few pockets of clearing are
noted on satellite and these are the spots where vsbys have dropped
down to around 2-3 miles in patchy fog. Given the rainfall we saw on
Sunday, I would expect patchy fog pretty much anywhere this morning
if skies clear out but with plenty of mid/high clouds advecting in
from GA/SC, I don`t anticipate widespread/dense fog this morning.

Looking ahead to later today, we remain in an unsettled pattern with
a deepening upper trough over the lower OH valley. With convection
ongoing across portions of GA this morning, one would expect a least
one or more remnant MCVs to be drawn northward into NC later this
afternoon and serve as a trigger for afternoon showers and storms.
To a large extent the hi-res models depict this scenario across the
western Piedmont while also showing sea breeze driven storms across
the east. With 20kts or less of bulk shear, multicell clusters
driven by outflow interactions similar to what was seen on Sunday
appears to be a likely outcome for today. SPC maintains a MRGL risk
for severe weather across portions of central NC while WPC also
maintains a MRGL for excessive rainfall. As is typically the case
during the summer a few spots will likely see impressive rainfall
totals while others see little/if any. 00Z HREF LPMM showing some
isolated pockets of 2-3" of QPF mainly across the Coastal Plain with
lesser amounts elsewhere. Whatever storms develop should dissipate
by mid/late evening, with varying amounts of cloud cover overnight.

In addition to today`s storm chances, we will see yet another day of
dangerously high heat indices across portions of the area,
especially eastern NC where Heat Advisories are in effect from noon
to 8pm today. If storms develop early enough, especially across the
Coastal Plain, the Advisory may be able to be cancelled early but it
may not be until mid/late afternoon before storms get going farther
inland and by then heat indices will likely be in the 102-107 degree
range.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above-normal rain chances continue through Tue,
primarily over the N and E. Lesser coverage is expected Wed through
Fri, with more widely scattered storms, then rain chances increase
again heading into next weekend. Above-normal heat will return
briefly from the Triangle south and east late in the week, but it
won`t be nearly as intense or widespread as the recent heat wave.

PWs will remain around 150% of normal over northern and NE NC Tue,
ahead of a baggy mid level shortwave trough extending from New
England through PA and the Ohio Valley to AR. The corresponding
surface cold front will approach but remain to our N and NW, keeping
us firmly in the warm sector with a surface trough holding through
the Piedmont. Steering flow and deep layer bulk shear will remain
weak Tue, keeping the overall severe threat in check despite
expected moderate SBCAPE and DCAPE near 800 J/kg (although
convective debris cloudiness may curb our instability somewhat). But
the risk of localized heavy rain rates will persist over the
northern and NE CWA, given a likely slow storm motion and the
potential for training and congealing cells within a high-PW
environment, thus pockets of minor urban flooding can`t be ruled
out. WPC continues a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over our NE
half Tue.

Previous model runs had favored the mid-level trough and associated
surface cold front dropping SE into, if not fully through, NC, Wed
and Wed night. But more recent model solutions have trended toward a
less-phased trough, with its northern portion pushing E off New
England and the northern Mid Atlantic Wed, while the slower southern
portion drifts E over the central and lower Miss Valley into W KY
and W TN. This results in a flat shortwave ridge over the Carolinas
mid-week, and a surface front that holds near or N of the NC/VA
border (although the Piedmont troughing appears anchored in place).
With weak steering flow, possible warm mid levels and a downturn in
PW, we should see reduced shower/storm coverage Wed/Thu, with just
widely-scattered, late-day garden-variety convection. The southern
portion of the mid level shortwave trough is expected to deamplify
and finally progress eastward, passing by to our N by late Thu into
early Fri. While this may accelerate our mid level flow (esp across
our N) Fri, the flat W-E ridging to our S should still limit
moisture transport into central NC, with few other mechanisms to
force ascent, and expect another day of spotty shower/storm
coverage.

By the weekend, the strengthening blocking ridge over the central
Rockies and Four Corners region will allow longwave troughing to
gradually dig over the eastern CONUS, with strengthening NW flow
allowing perturbations to dive SE into our area. This should result
in an upward trend in moisture, clouds, and shower/storm chances by
Sat/Sun.

Regarding temps, readings are expected to stay generally above
normal through mid to late week, peaking on Friday when highs should
reach the mid to upper 90s. This heat won`t be nearly as intense or
long-lived as our most recent heat wave. But we do have patches of
Extreme levels of experimental Heat Risk popping up by Fri over
portions of the area, along with heat indices peaking at or just
over 105F, so small areas of heat headlines may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 603 AM Monday...

Cloud cover has thinned overnight, allowing for some pockets of
lowered vsbys but so far all TAF sites remain VFR. While there is an
outside chance of any given site briefly dipping to MVFR through
13Z, confidence is too low to include in any of the TAFs.

Forecast thinking remains unchanged from 06Z TAF issuance. Looking
ahead to this afternoon we should see another round of scattered
showers and storms with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions. Hard to
pinpoint exact storm locations, other than including TEMPOs and
PROB30s for thunder during the favored times of 20Z-03Z. Any storms
that develop should wrap by mid/late evening.

Outlook: Daily thunderstorm chances will prevail most days through
the end of the week, along with the potential for early morning sub-
VFR fog/stratus.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Records within reach this forecast period...

Record High Temperatures:

July 6: KFAY: 100/2024
July 10:KRDU: 99/1993

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024
July 7: KGSO: 73/2024 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ024-
025-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/GIH
AVIATION...Leins
CLIMATE...RAH