Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

864
FXUS62 KRAH 010522
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
122 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Rainfall has increased for Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...

1) Unsettled weather expected to start on Sunday and continue
through at least early next week, including periods of strong storms
and a localized flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather expected to start on Sunday and
continue through at least early next week, including periods of
strong storms and a localized flooding threat.

An upper low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley region will settle
south-southeast and establish a positively tilted trough over the OH
Valley and Deep South through early in the week.  Deep south-
southwesterly flow downstream of the trough will advect a moist
airmass across our region, with PW exceeding 2-2.5 inches areawide
by Sunday as a weak stalled boundary over the Southeast lifts
through the area as a warm front. The better deep moisture will
shift east by Monday but likely linger over eastern NC through
midweek as the upper trough axis slowly shifts east. Forcing for
showers and storms is somewhat nebulous, but the pattern favors
periodic upper disturbances resulting in scattered to numerous
showers and storms and the potential for training and backbuilding
in relatively unidirectional deep layer flow.  Instability each day
is also somewhat in question in the moist airmass, but soundings
suggest sufficient low-level moisture to promote 500-1000 MLCAPE.
Thus, a conditional flooding threat will likely exist each day
Sunday through Tue/Wed, perhaps greatest areawide on Sunday
afternoon and evening but also present through the overnight hours
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Saturday...

Moisture return is being obscured in satellite data from high-lvl
cirrus, but sporadic sites within the richer low-lvl moisture
footprint in SPC mesoanalysis data over the Lowcountry of SC are
starting to report cigs in the low-MVFR range. This plume of
moisture is forecast to lift northward into the western Piedmont
early Sat morning. With some assistance from weak upslope flow, low-
MVFR to even IFR cigs are possible around the Triad terminals.
Latest guidance suggests 12-15z will be the favored timeframe for
sub-VFR cigs around the Triad, but may develop as early as 11z or
persist as late as 16/17z. Shallow sprinkles can`t be ruled out Sat
afternoon in the vicinity of the Triad terminals Sat afternoon, but
otherwise no restrictions are expected through 00z. Aviation
conditions begin to deteriorate into Sun morning.

Outlook: Waves of diurnally-maximized convection, especially Sun-
Mon, but with lingering above average chances through the middle of
next week, will accompany the slow approach and passage of a mid/upr-
level trough.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...AS/MWS