Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS62 KRAH 272259
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased confidence in the threat of severe weather tomorrow,
  Tuesday, July 28.

* Updated Aviation discussion through Tuesday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 335 PM Monday...

1) Isolated storms across eastern NC possible this
afternoon/evening.

2) A slight risk (2 of 5) of severe weather on Tuesday. The main
hazard will be damaging winds, with large hail and a tornado or two
also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated storms across eastern NC possible this
afternoon/evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of Eastern NC
this afternoon, mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor, as
daytime heating interacts with the sea breeze and a lingering
boundary. Latest ensemble guidance indicates storms will develop
along the sea breeze with limited inland progression into the
Coastal Plain, though a few isolated strong storms capable of gusty
winds cannot be ruled out. Storm activity will rapidly diminish
after sunset. Overnight, areas that received rainfall may see low
stratus clouds and patchy fog develop where winds become light and
calm.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A slight risk (2 of 5) of severe weather on
Tuesday. The main hazard will be damaging winds, with large hail and
a tornado or two also possible.

Details: Large-scale ascent associated with an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough and an attendant cold front will provide sufficient
forcing for convective initiation Tuesday afternoon, with storms
becoming more widespread through the evening. Ahead of the front,
southerly winds will bring warm and moist air to the region,
supporting MUCAPE of roughly 1500-3000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. This
will combine with 40-50 kts of 0-8 km shear to support initially
supercells with a localized wind and hail threat. Storm interactions
in the late afternoon and evening should then favor clustered
convection and bowing segments, with the primary hazard being a
damaging wind threat. A brief tornado or two will also be possible
as the low-level jet strengthens and increases low-level shear and
helicity from the Triangle eastward. The threat of flooding should
be a lesser threat due to quicker storm propagations expected. High
rain rates within the strongest storms may produce localized
flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

Timing: Storms look to start forming and approach the region in the
early afternoon, with storms entering the western Piedmont around 2
to 4 PM before progressing eastward across the region. The most
likely timing for the severe weather threat currently appears to be
between 4 and 10 PM, potentially lasting until midnight.

What could diminish the threat: While confidence is increasing in
the threat of severe weather, the primary forecast uncertainty
remains how upstream convection currently located in the Great Lakes
region will evolve overnight and into tomorrow. If rain/cloud cover
is able to persist over the mountains into the morning hours more
than currently expected, the destabilization in the Carolinas would
be reduced tomorrow afternoon, leading to a lesser severe threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. Increasing high
clouds will advect south tonight tied to a strong convective complex
that will likely decay by early Tue. The airmass, while less
conducive to fog or stratus, still supports some sub-VFR conditions
at FAY/RWI Tue morning, in the 08-12z time frame. Crossover
temperatures may be met or exceeded at RWI and FAY with little dry
advection noted this afternoon. The highest confidence is at RWI,
where IFR visibilities may be present. Otherwise, the main challenge
is the timing and coverage of scattered to numerous showers and
storms, some of which will become severe, Tue afternoon and evening.
A decaying thunderstorm complex could bring showers in the morning,
most favored at GSO/INT. A few high-res models suggest this
potential. However, the more consistent signal in the guidance for
storms is 19z Tue to 02z Wed. Although there is uncertainty with
respect to destabilization, clustering of storms seen in HREF gives
us enough confidence to include TEMPO groups for TSRA in the most
favored time window. Ahead of storms, SSW winds may gust to 20-24 kt
as the pressure gradient tightens.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and storms Tue evening will
diminish by late evening, with patchy fog/stratus possible Wed
morning. VFR will largely prevail Wed through Fri. Storms may return
to the forecast this weekend, but confidence right now favors the
latter part of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/LH
AVIATION...Kren