Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS62 KRAH 051901
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
201 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

* No major changes to the forecast with the afternoon update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

1) Areas of fog and very low overcast along and just offshore
the South Atlantic coast will develop/advect inland and across
the ern Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each
morning through the weekend.

2) Very warm to near record breaking temperatures will prevail
through at least the middle of next week, with highs around 15-20
degrees above normal and lows around 20-25 degrees above normal.

3) Unsettled weather returns this weekend into next week as a few
weak fronts progress into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. The best
chance for rain will be Sunday into Monday and again Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Areas of fog and very low overcast along and just offshore the South
Atlantic coast will develop/advect inland and across the ern
Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each morning through
the weekend.

Onshore flow, around a persistent sub-tropical high that will extend
from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states, will transport an
increasingly-moist airmass inland, such that surface dewpoints
mostly in the low-mid 50s F over cntl NC this morning will increase
to upr 50s to low-mid 60s by this weekend. This pattern will favor
the inland development/advection of fog and low overcast into the NC
Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills each morning, with SREF and HREF
probabilities that favor greatest coverage Fri through Sun morning,
as the aforementioned surface dewpoints maximize. Steady south-
southwesterly flow at the surface should mitigate widespread and
persistent dense fog, but locally dense fog of less than 1/2 mile
will be possible, especially in sheltered locations.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Very warm to near record breaking temperatures will prevail
through at least the middle of next week, with highs around
15-20 degrees above normal and lows around 20-25 degrees above
normal.

Mid-level ridging atop a surface high centered near Bermuda will
extend from the western Atlantic into the Southeast US from today
through Saturday, as deep troughing sets up over the Western US.
Thus, it will be very warm, with highs in the upper-70s to lower-80s
and lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s today through Saturday. A
weak cold front looks to cool temperatures very slightly Sunday and
Monday, with highs still expected to reach the mid-70s to around 80
and lows in the mid-50s to around 60. Temperatures will then rise
back into the upper-70s to low/mid-80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Unsettled weather returns this weekend into next week as a few
weak fronts progress into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. The
best chance for rain will be Sunday into Monday and again
Wednesday into Thursday.

There could be enough moisture and upslope flow on the periphery of
the aforementioned ridge to produce some isolated showers and storms
over the Foothills that trickle into our western Piedmont on Friday
and Saturday. A greater chance of rain will come Sunday into Monday
ahead of a cold front which appears to weaken as it approaches
central NC. As temperatures and dewpoints will be above normal for
this time of year, showers and storms will be possible Sunday
afternoon into Monday. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out
Sunday afternoon as there appears to be a marginal amount of
instability and shear over the region. However, model trends will
continue to be monitored as we get closer.

As a few rounds of shortwave energy look to move over the region on
Monday and Tuesday, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue to be possible both afternoons. The potential for
additional showers and storms will increase again Wednesday into
Thursday as another cold front looks to approach the region.
However, ensemble guidance is still suggesting a wide range in the
timing and strength of the frontal passage and the associated mid-
level low, so details remain unclear at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Flight categories have improved to VFR at all terminals with only
localized areas of MVFR cigs, which should continue to lift to VFR
over the next couple hours. SCT to BKN 3-6k ft cumulus and light
gusty southwesterly winds will prevail until around sunset.
Development/advection of VLIFR/LIFR stratus is once again expected
tonight into Fri morning and most probable at FAY and RWI where
local enhancement from marine layer advecting inland. Less
confidence exists at INT, GSO, and RDU; more aggressive guidance
suggests the regime of radiation/advection fog that developed over
GA and central/western SC this past morning may develop farther
north and affect the Triad terminals after midnight. Confidence is
too low to include in 18z package at this time. Where sub-VFR
conditions develop should be slow to lift, but scatter by 15/16z.

Outlook: Areas of fog and/or stratus will likely develop over the
ern Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each morning
through the weekend. Additionally, a weakening frontal system will
settle into cntl NC, with an associated likely probability of
convection and flight restrictions, on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 5:  KGSO: 81/1967    KRDU: 83/1967    KFAY: 87/1976
March 6:  KGSO: 78/2022    KRDU: 82/1967    KFAY: 86/1918
March 7:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 85/1974    KFAY: 84/1961
March 8:  KGSO: 83/2000    KRDU: 87/1974    KFAY: 87/1974
March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974
March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 5:  KGSO: 61/1976     KRDU: 65/1976    KFAY: 63/1976
March 6:  KGSO: 64/1967     KRDU: 64/1967    KFAY: 65/1961
March 7:  KGSO: 63/1956     KRDU: 64/1956    KFAY: 65/1961
March 8:  KGSO: 57/1946     KRDU: 60/1946    KFAY: 63/1961
March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980
March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/MWS/LH/JD
AVIATION...AS/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH