Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

961
FXUS62 KRAH 071843
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across central
North Carolina through Wednesday as weak mid-level flow and a
backdoor cold front sagging south from Virginia provide a favorable
environment for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most
deterministic and convection-allowing guidance suggests the greatest
convective coverage will occur each afternoon and evening, with
outflow boundaries being the focus this afternoon and evening and
the backdoor front and any residual outflow boundaries serving as
primary foci for storm development on Wednesday. While widespread
organized severe weather is not expected, moderate instability will
support a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger
multicells. The severe weather risk should remain highest where
storms can interact with the southward-moving boundary, especially
across northern half of the forecast area.

The flash flood threat may ultimately become the greater concern.
Deep tropical moisture, slow storm motions, and the potential for
repeated development along the frontal zone could produce localized
heavy rainfall totals. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues
to highlight the greatest concern across the northern and
northeastern portions of central North Carolina both today and
Wednesday, where the proximity of the backdoor front may favor more
persistent or training convection. Localized flash flooding will be
possible, particularly in urban areas and other flood-prone
locations where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through
Saturday.

Each day through the end of the work week is expected to trend a
degree or two hotter as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower
and middle 90s. Combined with continued high humidity, heat indices
will likely reach or exceed 100 degrees across much of central North
Carolina during this time. The experimental HeatRisk forecast shows
major (Level 3 of 4) continuing or perhaps expanding a bit each day
south and east of the Triad through Saturday. This level of heat can
be dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration,
especially those spending extended periods outdoors. A weak front
approaching late in the weekend should bring at least modest relief
beginning Sunday, with temperatures easing back closer to seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

Through 18Z Wednesday: Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
tstms will result in brief IFR conditions in heavier storms, along
with gusty and erratic winds. Convection should diminish by late
evening, with mainly VFR overnight, although patchy MVFR fog or
stratus may develop toward daybreak where rainfall occurs, with the
best chance at KFAY and KRWI. Any sub-VFR restrictions should lift
by mid-morning Wednesday. In summary, outside of tstm activity, flt
conditions will be VFR with light and variable winds becoming light
from the NE overnight.

Wednesday Afternoon Through Sunday: A persistent summertime pattern
will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and
evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with
localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following
heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged
aviation impacts are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np
AVIATION...np