Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

807
FXUS62 KRAH 121853
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The forecast area has been removed from the SPC severe weather
  outlook on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

1) Numerous showers and storms through this evening. Locally heavy
rain possible, and a few strong to severe storms possible mainly
across the south.

2) Much below normal temperatures Monday, with highest rain chances
confined to the west and south.

3) Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm chances late in
the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Numerous showers and storms through this evening.
Locally heavy rain possible, and a few strong to severe storms
possible mainly across the south.

Isolated heavy rainfall and potential minor flooding remain the
primary weather threat heading into tonight. A weak surface frontal
zone analyzed from TN across upstate SC and SE NC will drift a bit
further south through tonight then stall out and hold over the
Carolinas through tonight, as a mid-upper low over KY and its
corresponding shear axis extending across S VA and into the NW
Atlantic both settle slowly to the SSE. Ample moisture is in place,
according to blended TPW products and WV imagery, with PWs sitting
at ~120% of normal. Forcing for ascent provided by passing mid level
perturbations and the presence of the sloping frontal zone over the
area to serve as a focus should allow for sct-numerous showers and
storms to spread over the area from mid afternoon through at least
this evening, with the greatest across our S half and Coastal Plain
where the HREF has consistently favored a high PMM of 1"/3 hrs and
where the REFS LPMM has pockets of 2+"/6 hrs through 06z. The last
few RAP runs maintain a high warm-cloud depth over 4 km this
afternoon and evening, and latest CAMs continue to show the
potential for congealing and training cells that could boost local
rainfall and rates. Despite our ongoing dry and drought conditions
over the area, these anticipated high rainfall rates may still yield
flooding, esp in urban areas, although uncertainty as to the
coverage and location of such high-rainfall areas precludes a flood
watch at this time. That said, this threat will be closely
monitored, and a few flood advisories or warnings remain possible
through tonight. Rain coverage and intensity should gradually
dwindle overnight with loss of heating and unimpressive lapse rates.

Regarding the severe threat, the greatest risk appears to be in
areas near the SC border and in our far SE where SBCAPE exceeds 2500
J/kg and where better heating via less cloud cover has allowed low
level lapse rates to reach 8+ C/km, according to RAP-based
mesoanalyses. But the greater instability and greater DCAPE are now
confined to SC and far SE NC, while the effective bulk shear remains
marginal at 20-25 kts at most over our area, so the threat appears
fairly localized and confined to our extreme S and SE through early
evening. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts would be the primary
threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Much below normal temperatures Monday, with highest
rain chances confined to the west and south.

As the front settles largely S of the area by Mon, the threat for
heavy rain in training cells and convective clusters will be over
across our S, with much lower chances over our northern two-thirds.
As a CAD-like regime sets up, the presence of considerable cloud
cover (esp over the NW) to hinder heating plus a light NNE/NE low
level flow drawing lower dewpoints and more stable air into the area
will allow for a much cooler day, including highs in the 70s over
the Piedmont, around 10 to 15 degrees below normal and a welcome
respite from the very hot temps of the last several weeks. The I-95
corridor east should see highs around 80/low 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm
chances late in the week and weekend.

The front passing through the area right now should still be in
close enough proximity to central North Carolina to provide some
rain on Tuesday, although it appears there will likely be a tight
gradient between what falls along the VA/NC border (nothing) and the
NC/SC border (a good amount of rain). As the front slips farther to
the south, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday now all appear to be dry.
While Friday was previously under a SPC outlook for severe weather,
the area of concern shifted north with SPC`s latest outlook. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast for
Saturday and Sunday with moisture arriving from the north.

In the meantime, after a cool day on Monday, temperatures will rise
slightly on Tuesday, then the 90s return for the rest of the
forecast. The current forecast doesn`t call for any daily records,
but Thursday and/or Friday could possibly approach heat advisory
criteria before the weekend precipitation brings temperatures down
slightly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

While VFR conditions prevail over the W and S parts of central NC at
this hour, patches of MVFR cigs persist from the RDU area to the N
and E. These sub-VFR cigs should continue to slowly lift and break
up over the next couple of hours, resulting in VFR conditions
areawide by 20z. At the same time, though, the chance for rain will
increase areawide during the mid to late afternoon, with scattered
storms possible mainly along and south of Hwy 64 (best chance of
thunder at FAY, lesser chance at RDU/RWI, and lower still at
INT/GSO). Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs are possible in any showers
or storms, along with sudden wind gusts over 35 mph in and near any
storms. Light rain is already falling in the INT/GSO area, and this
will continue on-and-off through 02z, while the chance for rain and
embedded storms at RDU/RWI/FAY will peak this evening, with a
decreasing but persistent threat of rain through tonight. Outside of
storms, conditions should be largely VFR from 20z through 04z, but
then thereafter, a trend to MVFR and IFR conditions is likely,
particularly after 06z and lasting through Mon morning. INT/GSO/RDU
will have the highest chance of IFR conditions (primarily low cigs)
from 07z through the end of the TAF period, while RWI/FAY should see
a trend from IFR to MVFR cigs starting around 15z. Surface winds
will be mainly from the N and NE at 10 kts or less as a weak frontal
zone settles south of the state and a relatively cool and moist
wedge-regime sets up.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, sub-VFR cigs are likely to hold through at
least mid afternoon Mon at INT/GSO/RDU, with a chance of rain
areawide and perhaps a late-day storm near FAY. Rain chances will
decrease Mon night, although patchy MVFR cigs may persist into Tue
morning. Then, mostly dry weather and VFR conditions should dominate
Tue-Fri, although storm chances may start to return by Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 16: KRDU: 101/1887

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 12: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/2011 KFAY: 80/1935

July 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 78/1992

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019

July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Green
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH