Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS62 KRAH 221815
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  Nothing significant

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

1) A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this
evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two
over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont).

2) Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday,
lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to
the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will
linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of
a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont).

Within a synoptic trough amplifying from cntl Canada to the srn
Appalachians, a lead mid/upr-level impulse now over ern TN will
pivot across the wrn Carolinas through this evening, then lift newd
and across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic through early Sun.
Related weak height falls (10-30 meters) and modest mid/level
cooling 1-2 C at 500 mb) will result over cntl NC through tonight.

At the surface, weak high pressure and divergence have been over
cntl NC today, as have widespread low cloudiness and stability,
between a pair of quiasi-stationary fronts draped across sern NC
through cntl SC/GA and another over n-cntl VA. A separate surface
cold front related to the approaching synoptic trough, now
stretching from MI swwd into the mid MS Valley, will likely spread
east of the Blue Ridge early Sun.

The presence of the lingering high and stability over cntl NC will
likely yield just a scattering of weak cells over cntl NC through
this evening. The exception will be over the Piedmont (especially
the nw Piedmont), where the aforementioned mid-level height falls
and cooling will be maximized and accompanied by an increase in
mid/upr-level swly flow. Hodographs will consequently become
elongated over the Piedmont through this evening, mostly above 5-6
km and with some counter-clockwise curvature. Cells there may
locally strengthen and offer a risk of locally damaging wind gusts
and perhaps even some hail given both the cooling mid-levels and a
conditional risk of a few splitting cells (with left-moving ones
favored).

KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier air will move into the region from the north
on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will
return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for
rain being Thursday.

While the air won`t be particularly moist Sunday morning, it should
be noticeably drier later in the day as a cold front pushes through.
While dewpoints may remain in the mid to upper 60s in the
southeastern part of the forecast area by sunset, dewpoints should
drop into the mid to upper 50s in the Triad, a pleasant change for
late August. While the southern tip of Sampson County could see an
isolated thunderstorm Sunday or Monday, the rest of the area will be
dry. Sunday`s cold front will hang up along the Gulf Coast for the
first half of the week before pushing back to the north on Wednesday
and Thursday, becoming nearly stationary over North Carolina. Expect
a chance of showers/storms in all locations Wednesday, with the
greatest chance occurring on Thursday. It appears that the front
should then slide closer to the coast on Friday and Saturday,
leaving more scattered precipitation coverage across central North
Carolina on those two days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

MVFR stratocumulus ceilings will continue to lift and/or scatter to
VFR this afternoon, with related warming and destabilization that
will allow for widely scattered convection to develop with the
approach of a mid/upr-level disturbance from ern TN. The relative
highest probability of occurrence of convection, generally between
30-60 percent, will be at INT/GSO this evening. A moist airmass will
otherwise remain in place over much of cntl NC and probably support
the development of at least patchy fog and low stratus overnight-Sun
morning, especially at ern terminals, ahead of a cold front that
will approach from the west and move across cntl NC early Sun.

Outlook: High pressure and associated dry, continental air will
build across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic and favor mostly VFR
conditions in cntl NC through Tue, before moisture and lift
increase, and the chance of convection returns, by Wed-Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Green
AVIATION...MWS