Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS62 KRAH 041859
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Negligible changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 258 PM Thursday...

1) Increasingly hot, but with low humidity and no rain through
Sunday. Convection will be possible ahead of a cold front Sunday
night, with possible isolated convection through middle of next week
as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly hot, but with low humidity and no rain
through Sunday. Convection will be possible ahead of a cold front
Sunday night, with possible isolated convection through middle of
next week as well.

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted a mid-level low spinning
off the NC coast downstream of an anomalous ridge that extends north
into the Great Lakes region.  Temperatures have largely reached the
mid to upper 80s, with dew points mixing out into the lower 40s.
Quite weather expected again tonight with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 50s.

The center of the anomalous mid-level ridge will shift over the
eastern US Friday into the weekend while high pressure at the sfc
shifts offshore. Increasing sly flow along with downslope warming
will promote increasing temperatures Friday into the weekend.
Temperatures will push the mid 90s Friday and Saturday but residual
wnwly flow aloft and low PWAT should allow decent mixing out of dew
points each afternoon.  By Sunday, guidance is suggesting temps
could peak near record levels in the upper 90s to around 100.
Moisture should return a bit on Sunday as well, and as such heat
concerns will return (the experimental HeatRisk shows areas of
Moderate to Major levels for much of central NC). All groups should
practice heat safety this weekend and into early next week.

Guidance continues to be in good agreement sending a cold front
through central NC late Sunday into Monday. Beyond Monday morning,
however, guidance differs. The GFS/GEFS builds a stronger high
behind the front and maintains drier/cooler temps through mid to
late next week. Conversely, the euro turns flow sly quicker and
allows some warmer temps to develop during the same period.
Following a similar trend, the EURO/ENS promotes afternoon
convection each day through mid to late next week. The GEFS/GFS
support drier conditions through this period. Both global model sets
highlight at least some convection ahead of the approaching front
Sunday night into Monday, but QPF is quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

High pressure anchored over the region will result in VFR conditions
with light and variable surface winds expected through Friday
afternoon.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will settle into cntl NC with an
associated chance of showers/storms late Sun into Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti
AVIATION...CA/MWS