Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

804
FXUS62 KRAH 080129
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
828 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

* Add discussion for the low predictability threat for severe
  weather in the Wed into Thurs time period.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

1) Marginal risk for severe weather Sunday. Unsettled weather
may continue early next week through late week.

2) Continued very warm through at least mid week, with near
record-breaking temperatures possible.

3) Low predictability severe threat along a strong cold frontal
passage Wed night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Marginal risk for severe weather Sunday. Unsettled may continue
early next week through late week.

Forecast remains largely unchanged. A northern stream trough will
lift across New England on Sunday. The southern periphery of the
upper jet (and associated weak mid-level height falls) will just
barely extend into central NC. Persistent swly flow and moisture
flux from the Gulf will maximize PWAT to upwards of 250% of normal
Sunday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and storms appear likely
Sunday aided by forcing along a pre-frontal sfc trough and mid-level
perturbations aloft.

Increasing swly flow in the lower levels in addition to the surging
moisture advection should promote MLCAPE of ~500 to 1000+ J/kg or so
by Sunday afternoon. Additionally, bulk layer shear is expected to
increase to 30 to 40 kts during this period. As such, a few isolated
stronger storms could develop Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast
hodographs generally depict weak lower-level shear. However,
stronger mid level shear could support a few cells capable of
transient mid-level rotation. Although forecasted mean-level flow
appears to be more-so parallel to the sfc boundary, and as such
discrete supercells will likely be difficult to develop. Regardless,
if any organized cells were to form, the primary potential severe
hazard would be isolated damaging winds and possibly hail (steep mid-
level lapse rates under the mid-Atlantic jet streak sag south into
our northern areas late Sunday afternoon).

There remains some uncertainty wrt the development, coverage, and
strength of storms that may develop across the area Sunday aft/eve.
Remnant cloud cover from upstream convection tonight may maintain
thick overcast over our area through much of Sunday afternoon. If
this were to occur, our atmosphere may not be as ripe for deep
convection. The 12ZZ HRRR runs seem to favor this solution for
now.

Any lingering convection Sunday evening should wane and move east of
our area by Sunday night.

Coverage will decrease Monday through Wednesday with transient zonal
flow aloft while the ridge re-builds along the southeast. However,
cannot fully rule out isolated convection each afternoon. Beyond
Wednesday, a strong upper trough and associated sfc cold front will
approach and eventually pass through central NC. There are some
timing differences in the guidance this far out, but strong sswly
flow and WAA ahead of the front will likely trigger increasing
shower and storm chances sometime late Wednesday through Thursday
night. The flow aloft will be quite potent, and as such, we`ll have
to keep monitoring this period for potential severe weather.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Continued very warm through at least mid week, with near
record-breaking temperatures possible.

The anomalous mid-level ridge centered over New England will de-
amplify this weekend as a trough moves across the Ohio Valley
through Sunday. The ridge will then re-amplify Tuesday into
Wednesday ahead of another strong and possibly deeper trough.
The trough will push across the eastern seaboard Thursday into
Friday.

This pattern will promote anomalous daytime and nighttime
temperatures this weekend through at least midweek. Highs will peak
Tuesday and Wednesday into the lower to mid 80s with strengthening
pre-frontal sswly flow.  Although, afternoon convection and clouds
may dampen this some.

A potential "cooldown" into the 60s/lower 70s looks possible
Thursday, although timing differences amongst models wrt to a strong
cold front are promoting quite a spread in temperatures then. Post-
frontal CAA should arrive by Friday, with cooler highs possibly only
reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low predictability severe threat along a strong cold frontal passage
Wed night into Thursday.

A dynamic system is expected to develop as a Baja mid/upper
level low lift northeast on Tues and eventually gets absorbed
into a northern stream wave at it traverses the central/northern
CONUS. Central NC will likely be on the southern periphery of
the better DPVA forcing, but 150 to 200m H5 height falls will
still provide ample synoptic forcing for ascent into the
southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Seasonably anomalous low-
level moisture, characterized by dew points in the low/mid 60s,
will be in place well ahead of the approaching cold front as a
65-100 kt H5 jet overspreads the Mid- Atlantic. The biggest
question mark will be the available surface-based instability
given the diurnally unfavorable fropa expected sometime Wed
night into early Thurs morning.

Predictability is too low for any mesoscale or detailed hazards.
Based on the expected pattern and fropa timing, wind would be
the most likely hazard with flooding and hail unlikely. Timing
of the fropa from the GEFS has trended slower with time with
subsequent model runs; if this trend continues, a morning severe
threat may be possible on Thurs in the Coastal Plain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 827 PM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this
evening. While swly sfc winds have weakened compared to early today,
expect some stirring to continue overnight. A strengthening low-
level jet just above the sfc could produce fleeting LLWS conditions
overnight, but think the sfc winds will be strong enough to preclude
adding this to the TAFs at this point.

MVFR and perhaps IFR ceilings will begin to spread back into central
NC by about 06z-09z. Most recent guidance has trended later with
these ceilings with a lower chance of IFR. So the latest TAFs
prevail MVFR ceilings at the northern sites (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) with a
PROB30 for IFR at INT/GSO/RDU and a TEMPO at RWI where chances of
IFR are a little higher. Still prevail IFR at FAY where confidence
in IFR occurring is highest. Isolated to widely scattered showers
will also be possible late tonight and early Sunday morning, mainly
around INT/GSO/RDU, with a storm not out of the question.

By mid-morning, any IFR ceilings will lift to MVFR as SW winds again
begin gusting in the 15-25 kt range ahead of a cold front. Ceilings
should lift to VFR by late morning and early afternoon, latest at
FAY and RWI.

The threat for showers will steadily increase W to E as a cold front
approaches from the NW on Sun, and there is a good chance for flight
restrictions with scattered to numerous showers and storms in the
afternoon and evening, along with gusty and shifting winds. This
activity will decrease slowly and push to our SE Sun evening/night
as the front sags into central NC.

Outlook beyond 00Z Mon: Some fog and low stratus will still be
possible in the south and east on Mon morning. Isolated
showers/storms will be possible Monday through Wednesday. The chance
for late-night/early-morning sub-VFR conditions in fog/stratus will
return early Wed morning. The next cold front looks to bring a good
chance of showers and storms on Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 7:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 85/1974    KFAY: 84/1961
March 8:  KGSO: 83/2000    KRDU: 87/1974    KFAY: 87/1974
March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974
March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:  KGSO: 63/1956     KRDU: 64/1956    KFAY: 65/1961
March 8:  KGSO: 57/1946     KRDU: 60/1946    KFAY: 63/1961
March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980
March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/10/AS
AVIATION...Luchetti/JD
CLIMATE...RAH