Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS62 KRAH 231823
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Further reduced high temperatures for Saturday afternoon

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

1) Cold wedge keeps temperatures well below normal this afternoon
into tonight, along with increasing rain chances this evening

2) Extended period of unsettled weather and rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold wedge keeps temperatures well below normal
this afternoon into tonight, along with increasing rain chances this
evening

As of 2pm, the eastern edge of the wedge is just east of the
forecast area, with many locations in eastern North Carolina in the
low to mid 80s for temperatures. Meanwhile, easternmost counties in
the Raleigh forecast area are only in the 60s and lower 70s, with
locations north and west of Raleigh remaining in the 50s. While some
thunderstorms developed on the warm side of the wedge and are moving
towards Cumberland and Sampson counties, they will be short lived as
they move into the much more stable air. Models have been consistent
in showing a more concentrated area moving into the Charlotte metro
area and southwestern portions of the forecast area late this
afternoon into the evening. The coverage of showers should then
spread north and east through the overnight period.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Extended period of unsettled weather and rain
chances

Surface high pressure is located off the SE coast with mid-level
ridging centered to the east of the region. Tomorrow, the wedge
airmass should still be in place in the morning, dissipating
throughout the day. Thus, kept temperatures on the cooler side of
guidance with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds
should allow highs to generally increase each afternoon, into the
low-to-mid 80s on Monday to the mid-to-upper 90s by Thursday
afternoon. Friday, a backdoor cold front looks to pass south through
the region, bringing back a period of cooler temperatures.

In terms of precipitation, multiple waves of mid-level energy will
move through the region on the edge of the ridge through the
extended period. This will allow for rain chances each day Sunday
through Thursday. Exact timing and location of any showers and
embedded thunderstorms is still unclear at this time. However, the
mean of the LREF is showing generally 0.5 inch of rain each day
tomorrow through Tuesday, with closer to 0.25 inch Wednesday and
Thursday, and even less through the weekend after the passage of the
cold front. However, swaths of higher rainfall totals will be
possible each afternoon from any stronger storms that may develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in restrictions through the next 24
hours, much lower confidence in just how low the restrictions will
be. A cold air damming wedge has remained across much of central
North Carolina, and with it appearing likely to stay in place longer
than expected, this should prevent ceilings from rising as much as
previously anticipated at RWI/FAY and also reduce the chance of
thunderstorms at local terminals this afternoon. That being said, it
appears that thunderstorms will split the FAY terminal around 18Z,
but these storms have formed outside of the wedge and are moving
into the area. While some improvement to IFR/MVFR ceilings is
anticipated to happen area-wide through the afternoon, nightfall
will bring a return to widespread LIFR ceilings. The highest
potential of rain is still likely to move in south of INT/GSO/RDU
and move northeast during the evening hours. Rain coverage has been
sparse this morning, and appears that it will continue to be sparse
this afternoon before rain coverage expands overnight. Ceilings
should lift somewhat Sunday morning, although additional rain is
likely at that time.

Outlook: While ceilings are likely to lift to MVFR/VFR Sunday
afternoon, another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings should occur Sunday
night. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through
the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

May 23: KGSO: 59/1931

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000

May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006

May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

May 29: KRDU: 72/2012 KFAY: 73/2018

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Helock
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH