Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

831
FXUS62 KRAH 190504
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1203 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1200 AM Monday...

* Patchy black ice possible through mid-morning Monday

* This will be a week to monitor cold air and the potential for a
  significant precipitation event later this week or weekend.

* Increasing chance of bitterly cold temperatures late in the
  weekend and next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1200 AM Monday...

1) Patchy black ice possible through mid-morning Monday.

2) Generally a cold week ahead, potential for a significant winter
storm late week or this weekend and bitterly cold temperatures -
either with, or both - with and behind - the potential system.

3) Very cold temperatures expected later this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1200 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Special Weather Statement has been issued for
central NC through 900 AM Monday. The temperatures were already
below 32 for most areas and lows will be deep into the 20s by
daybreak with clear skies. Although most of the runoff from the rain
will have evaporated or will evaporate overnight, there may be some
areas that will have some patchy black ice through mid-day Monday.
Also, prepare to do plenty of defrosting as a very heavy frost is
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...  The overall pattern favors bouts of cold air this
week along with featuring the threat of a developing storm system
Generally a cold week ahead, potential for a significant winter storm
late week or this weekend. The coldest temperatures will likely be
Tuesday into Wednesday when dry and cold arctic air will be present.
Lows should bottom out in the 15-22 range both Monday night and
Tuesday night. Highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tuesday and
mostly in the 40s Wednesday. A brief milder period is expected
Wednesday night into Friday when highs should return to the 50s to
lower 60s SE. Mainly dry weather is expected through the week, with
only a slight chance of a light shower with the mid level warm front
Wed. night or Thu. morning.

A strong and bitterly cold arctic air mass, led by a 1050ish surface
high over the northern Plains by early Friday. Depending on the
timing, the surface front is expected to arrive late Friday. The
arrival of the front and the amount of CAA that can occur will be
critical for the next, possibly more significant system next
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Very cold temperatures may result with and/or
behind the potential storm this weekend. This will have to be
followed this week.

Critical questions...

Will there be a significant system(s) next weekend as many models
project?

Will the surface high build into the Great Lakes and NE states into
a position that it will build down the eastern seaboard into NC
(Before) the system arrives over the weekend?

Will there be several weak lows or one strong low pressure? (Miller
A or Miller B)?

All these questions, and it will take essentially most of the week
to answer them.

Some bitterly cold temperatures are favored this weekend into early
next week.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 644 PM Sunday...

The primarily rain (with mixed snow) band has collapsed east of
central NC this evening. KINT/KGSO just cleared out and this
clearing should quickly trend eastward through the early overnight
period.  Expect VFR conditions to return at all TAF sites by ~03-04Z
the latest.  While the clouds will clear out, the near-sfc airmass
will remain largely unchanged. High-res guidance continues to hint
at the potential for fog in the Sandhills and near or at KFAY early
Monday morning. Will maintain a TEMPO group for reduced visibilities
from fog at KFAY to account for this possibility between ~08 and 12Z.

Otherwise, expect dry and VFR conditions Monday, with a little late
morning wswly gustiness (15 to 20 kts) through the end of the TAF
period. Flow will turn wnwly as a strong arctic front moves across
central NC monday night. Some associated gustiness may accompany the
passage of the front Monday night.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are likely to hold through Thu, although
a period of clouds and slight rain chances are possible Thu. Next
chance for appreciable precipitation and potentially sub-VFR
conditions will be this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/BSD
Aviation...Luchetti