Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

443
FXUS62 KRAH 091038
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Precipitation chances, coverage and amounts for today have trended
  downward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

1) A pair of weak upper-level disturbances and a northward advancing
cold front will produce considerable cloudiness today along with a
chance of some spotty light rain this morning and a few afternoon
showers. Most locations will be dry, rain amounts should be
insignificant, and impacts to most outdoor plans limited.

2) A pair of cold fronts will bring a chance of showers, the first
Sunday night into Monday and the second on late Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Overall amounts and impacts should be low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A pair of weak upper-level disturbances and a
northward advancing cold front will produce considerable cloudiness
today along with a chance of some spotty light rain this morning and
a few afternoon showers. Most locations will be dry, rain amounts
should be insignificant, and impacts to most outdoor plans limited.

A return flow will develop today as surface high pressure moves
further away from the mid-Atlantic and a weak warm front lifts north
across the area. Low level and deep layer moisture will increase
with dew points increasing into the mid 50s to around 60 by late
this afternoon. At the same time a couple of disjointed mid-level
shortwaves will move across the region with one moving across the
mid Atlantic and a weaker system moving across GA/SC. with the
better, albeit still weak, forcing bypassing central NC, any
precipitation coverage will be limited today. Hi resolution guidance
hints at two prospects for precipitation, first some low level
isentropic lift may generate some some spotty rain mainly across the
southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain this
morning. There`s a risk of a few showers this afternoon into this
evening across any part of the area, but primarily the eastern
Piedmont, Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A rogue thunderstorm is
possible although instability will be very limited generally a few
hundred unit s of CAPE at best. The mid level flow is enhanced with
0-6km shear of 30 to 40 kts, but with weak updrafts, the risk of a
strong storm is rather limited. The rain chances with both systems
are very limited in terms of coverage, probability and precipitation
amounts if it occurs.

High temperatures should range in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows
tonight will be moderating by increasing moisture and clouds with
lows ranging in the mid 50s to around 60. Some patchy fog or low
stratus is possible late tonight, especially across southern and
southeastern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of cold fronts will bring a chance of
showers, the first Sunday night into Monday and the second on late
Wednesday into Thursday morning. Overall amounts and impacts should
be low.

Much of Sunday should be dry and warmer. However, there is a low end
chance of showers in the far SE, associated with a weak upper
disturbance that will exit early in the day. Highs will warm into
the lower to mid-80s. A cold front is forecast to move SE through
the region Sunday night and early Monday. This will bring a chance
of showers, with some areas in the SE possibly achieving likely POP
Monday morning. However, most of the western and northern sections
may see very little shower activity. The fleeting moisture and
instability will be most favorable in the SE. But even there, QPF is
only in the quarter to half inch range. Lesser amounts are forecast
over the Piedmont. Regardless, the shower chances will exit Monday
afternoon with additional dry weather to follow Tuesday. It will be
much cooler Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

A second cold front may bring a chance of showers late Wednesday
into early Thursday. Rainfall amounts look even lighter and impacts
should again be minimal. Warming temperatures into the 70s are
expected, with 80s by the end of the week with dry weather.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions mixed with some patches of LIFR to IFR fog,
underneath a veil of high cirrus clouds with light winds, will give
way to an increase in low level moisture this morning. As the
moisture has begun to increase this morning, areas of localized LIFR
to IFR fog, mainly across the Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain
impacting the KRWI and possibly KFAY terminals, will continue to
develop through daybreak and then dissipate by mid morning. Some
very patchy light rain or isolated showers may develop this morning,
mainly focused across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain
including the KFAY and possibly KRWI terminals. There is a small
risk of a shower from mid afternoon to early afternoon across the
eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain including the KRDU,
KRWI, and KFAY terminals. The risk of precipitation will end by mid
evening. Areas of MVFR status will develop across the Coastal Plain
and Sandhills late tonight toward daybreak Sunday possibly impacting
the KFAy and KRWI terminals. Light winds early this morning will
become southerly and strengthen to around 10 kts with some gusts to
around 16 kts at times late this morning and this afternoon with
winds become light tonight after sunset.

Outlook: A cold front will move across the region on Sunday night
into Monday bringing adverse aviation conditions in showers and low
clouds. -Blaes &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/pwb
AVIATION...Blaes