Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS62 KRAH 252312
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
715 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Storm chances have increased slightly for Friday.

* There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

1) Extended period of heat, with potentially dangerous heat
returning mid to late next week.

2) Convective chances increase Friday through Sunday, but largely
dry conditions follow most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Extended period of heat, with potentially dangerous
heat returning mid to late next week.

The high pressure which is currently moving off the mid-Atlantic
coast will continue to shift west through the weekend, leading to
the return of southerly winds over central NC. This will bring warm,
moist air from the south and allow for temperatures to increase each
afternoon, with 90s expected area-wide again Friday afternoon,
increasing to the mid-to-upper 90s Saturday afternoon. A relatively
weak cold front will move through the region on Sunday, which will
allow for Monday and Tuesday`s highs to be a few degrees cooler.
This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each
afternoon. After this, a deep ridge will move over the southeast US,
with high pressure at the surface, starting mid-week. This will
allow for temperatures to ramp up each afternoon. Wednesday should
have maximum temperatures return to the mid-to-upper 90s. Wednesday
afternoon, the probability of exceeding 98 degrees ranges from about
5% in the Coastal Plain to about 30% in the Triad. When looking at
the probability of 100 degrees, this decreases to about 15% in the
Triad and near 0 everywhere else. Temperatures should then increase
further into the weekend, which may create dangerously hot
conditions for the holiday weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Convective chances increase Friday through Sunday,
but largely dry conditions follow most of next week.

Thunderstorm chances increase starting tomorrow and largely remain
elevated through the weekend. For our Friday, while the overall
surface pattern is uneventful, there is a disturbance/MCV at mid-
levels, presently across GA this afternoon. Most guidance depicts
the system tracking up into SC/NC Friday afternoon and evening.
Along with that, there could be some enhancement from an inland
penetrating sea-breeze to aid convective chances over central NC.
Instability is the somewhat limiting factor, at about 500 J/kg or
less with 20-kt of deep-layer shear. The 12z HRRR and HREF show
broad convective coverage, although the REFS/RRFS is more muted.

For Saturday and Sunday, an approaching cold front will continue to
favor that uptick in storm chances. Right now, both days have an
equal chance, with Saturday driven in part by the advancing front
but also a pre-frontal trough. The front gets closer Sunday, not
fully moving through until likely early Monday. The deep shear
increases Saturday to around 25-kt, as does instability. For this
reason, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is in place
for all of the region Saturday, with the main risks being damaging
wind gusts. This damaging downburst wind potential may be enhanced
by a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer with steep mid-level lapse
rates and large dewpoint depressions.

Storm chances lessen quite a bit most of next week as a hot ridge
envelopes much of the area, stretching from the OH/TN valley to the
southern Appalachians. The next appreciable rain chances may not
arrive until the tail end of the week and holiday weekend, when the
ridge shifts west and allows for a slightly more active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will largely dominate central NC terminals for much
of the next 24 hours, although there is a small chance of a few
hours of MVFR vsbys in fog near FAY early Fri morning 10z-13z.
Otherwise, mid and high clouds will increase across far northern NC
late tonight, and areawide starting mid morning Fri, but no sub-VFR
cigs are expected. Isolated showers and storms are possible toward
the end of the TAF valid period, after 22z, but the chances at any
particular TAF sites are low, with poor model agreement on what the
favored location of storms might be, so have not included them in
the TAFs at this time. Surface winds will be light (under 8 kts)
from the SSW or SW tonight, then 8-14 kts from the SW Fri starting
mid morning.

Looking beyond 00z Sat, isolated to scattered storms are possible
through Fri evening, dissipating overnight. The chance for afternoon
and evening showers and storms increases for Sat/Sun, ahead of a
slowly approaching backdoor cold front. There is also a risk for
patchy early-morning sub-VFR fog/stratus early Sun and early Mon.
Drier VFR conditions are then expected to prevail from late morning
Mon through Tue.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Helock/Kren
AVIATION...Hartfield