Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

510
FXUS62 KRAH 081630
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* After Isaias weakens and becomes post-tropical over the TN and lwr
  OH Valleys late Sat and Sat night, a separate wave of low pressure
  will develop and track across the Carolinas on Sunday, along a
  frontal zone draped around the southeastern periphery of cold air
  damming high pressure. Beneficial, stratiform rain will
  consequently overspread cntl NC late Sat into Sun.

* A relative maximum of storm total precipitation in cntl NC will
  probably result in the ern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where a
  retreating wedge/warm front may focus a band of convective
  precipitation, and risk for embedded mesocyclones capable of
  producing an isolated tornado, on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

1) Above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

2) The likelihood of unsettled weather and significant rain
associated with Isaias continues to increase for late Saturday
through early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures are expected through
Friday.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through the region tonight
into early Friday. Ahead of the front, weak downslope winds and
rising low-level thicknesses will propel afternoon highs some 6-10
degrees above normal in the lower to middle 80s.

Behind the front, cooler high pressure settles in Friday, gradually
strengthening into Saturday over the Mid-Atlantic region. Northeast
flow tomorrow will promote lower daytime highs but still a few
degrees above average in the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints will be a
touch higher today, but drier air works in behind the front Friday
for another comfortable afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 40s
over most of central NC.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The likelihood of unsettled weather and significant
rain associated with Isaias continues to increase for late Saturday
through early Sunday. Rapid clearing in the rear of the system
Sunday.

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to strengthen today, move ashore on the
northern Gulf Coast Friday night near MS/AL/western FL, with the
system center turning NNW Saturday and Saturday night. This is a bit
west of the previous track forecasts as once the system weakens over
land, it will get pulled into the upper low over the mid-MS valley
region then. Finally, the remnant low should turn NE through the OH
Valley late in the weekend.

The timing of showers for central NC continues to focus on late
Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. We will likely have the
large surface high shift east and off the New England coast Saturday
night and Sunday as the tropical cyclone weakens to a depression and
remnant low. As this occurs, showers are expected over the far
southern and western areas that will likely set up a CAD event by
Saturday night. A coastal front is expected along the SE US, and
this will likely get pulled inland (NW) into SC and far SE NC on
Saturday night. Central NC may have to rely on a secondary low
pressure to form along this boundary for the most significant rain
late Saturday night and Sunday morning. In an interesting twist, the
NW Piedmont may again have a minimum in QPF with this event with the
expected CAD in that region. The ESE upslope flow into the Blue
Ridge should lead to a maximum there. And, the coastal front`s
secondary low should lead to a maximum of QPF over the Coastal Plain
and maybe the eastern Piedmont. Overall, 0.5 to 1 inch storm totals
in the NW Piedmont and 1-2 inches elsewhere.

Showers should taper off and end quickly on Sunday with the dry slot
and the sinking/downslope flow in the rear of the system as it
departs to our N-NE. Sunshine and warmth will likely return
later Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

VFR. A moisture-starved cold front will move across cntl NC tonight,
with little to no impact. Canadian high pressure and associated
dry/continental air will follow and build across the Middle Atlantic
later tonight and Friday.

Outlook: Stratiform rain will overspread cntl NC late Saturday into
Sunday. Cold air damming and flight restrictions will result and be
slow to erode, if at all over the Piedmont, through Sunday. The cold
air damming regime and flight restrictions will probably be
eradicated at FAY and RWI, and more broadly across ern and e-cntl
NC, by the nwwd retreat/passage of a warm/wedge front Sunday
afternoon. A band of heavier, convective precipitation may form
along or near that front Sunday afternoon, amid otherwise
lifting/scattering of low ceilings with its passage and eradication
of the cold air damming airmass.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett
AVIATION...MWS