Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

826
FXUS62 KRAH 121858
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A Freeze Watch has been issued for the northern and northwest
  Piedmont to the northern Coastal Plain Friday night to Saturday
  morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

1) A pair of cold fronts will bring gusty winds and potentially a
few light showers this afternoon and tomorrow. A Freeze Watch has
been issued for our northern counties Friday night to early Saturday.

2) The chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first
widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend, followed by continued
below average temperatures (including additional frost/freezes) and
dry conditions that will persist through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A pair of cold fronts will bring gusty winds and
potentially a few light showers this afternoon and tomorrow. A
Freeze Watch has been issued for our northern counties Friday night
to early Saturday.

Satellite imagery along with surface observations indicate that the
cold front has passed the Triad and nearing the Triangle. The front
is expected to move through all of central NC by late this afternoon
to early evening. Along and behind the front, gusts out of the WNW
will range from 25-30 mph, before diminishing this evening and
tonight. Temperatures will fall this evening post-frontal, but stay
above freezing in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

This afternoon ahead of the front, the HRRR/RRFS are indicating a
small sliver of instability, mainly near/along and east of the US-1
corridor. A few sprinkles or showers will accompany the front for
portions of the Triangle, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain late this
afternoon, but most areas will see no more than a trace of rainfall.

A secondary cold front will move through Friday night, with the
airmass significantly turning colder to values typical for late
December or early January. A secondary shortwave rotating around the
base of the trough will bring some late day clouds and perhaps a few
isolated sprinkles or light rain, mainly for the Triangle north and
east. Again, this is going to be very light at best, with most areas
only seeing a trace to at most a few hundredths of an inch.

The main story with the front will be much colder lows in the low to
middle 30s by early Saturday. Right now, cloud cover from the
departing shortwave, and a well-mixed boundary layer from northerly
winds, may prevent a widespread freeze. However, our northern
counties from the Triad into the northern Coastal Plain may have a
good 3-4 hours of below freezing temperatures. Given that, and in
coordination with neighboring WFOs, decided to issue a Freeze Watch
for our northern tier for early Saturday. Later forecast shifts may
adjust the watch as needed.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The chilliest air of the season will arrive and
support the first widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend,
followed by continued below average temperatures (including
additional frost/freezes) and dry conditions that will persist
through most of next week.

Broad mid/upper troughing over the eastern US on Saturday,
associated with a mid/upper cyclone over southeastern Canada and
northern New England, will migrate east into the western Atlantic
through early next week. Meanwhile, high-amplitude ridging will
slowly shift east from the Plains into the MS Valley. At the
surface, high pressure from Central Canada will drop south into the
Midwest this weekend, then into the OH Valley and central/southern
Appalachians early next week.

Dry and very chilly conditions will result across central NC during
this period. We will still be in a CAA regime on Saturday, with NW
winds gusting to 15-20 mph at times, before the MSLP gradient starts
to relax as the high gets closer, resulting in calmer winds and
better radiational cooling conditions on Sunday and Monday mornings.
There may still be light stirring from a continued gradient on
Sunday morning, while Monday morning looks calmer, but low-level
thicknesses start to rise by that point. Regardless which morning is
colder, the first sub-freezing temperatures of the season are
expected across much of central NC both days, with a hard freeze
even possible over outlying parts of the Piedmont. The urban
Triangle and far SE may be the only areas that have lows at or just
above freezing. Thus the growing season is likely to be ended this
weekend. For reference, the last day GSO reached at or below
freezing was March 18, while it was April 9 at RDU and March 29 at
FAY. Highs this weekend will also be chilly, only reaching the lower
to mid 50s on Saturday and mid to upper 50s on Sunday. These would
be the coolest highs across the area since March.

Fire weather concerns can`t be totally ruled out on Saturday given
RH values dropping to 30-35% and possibly even lower given NW
downsloping flow. Momentum transfer on forecast model soundings also
indicates wind gusts in the 15-20 kt range. But the marginal winds
combined with the cool temperatures will limit potential for
increased fire danger.

The Canadian High will remain over the Eastern US from Monday
through Thursday, with only slow weakening/modification expected. So
widespread frost/freeze conditions are likely to continue each
morning through Thursday, and near-normal highs in the lower-to-mid-
60s won`t return until Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1202 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. We
cannot rule out a stray isolated sprinkle or light rain with the
passage of the cold front later this afternoon and early evening,
with the best chance at FAY/RWI. This would not result in any sub-
VFR restrictions, however. Wind gusts will become WNW this afternoon
and early evening, ranging from 22-28 kt, highest in the mid to late
afternoon hours, before diminishing tonight. Wind gusts will pick
back up tomorrow post-frontal, with gusts of 15-18 kt out of the NW.
The GFS is the only model hinting at a few MVFR ceilings at GSO/INT
this evening behind the front. However, confidence was too low to
mention at this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through early next week.
Gusty NW winds are expected to continue Friday and Saturday in the
15-20 kt range.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
for NCZ007>011-021>026-038>040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/JD
AVIATION...Kren