Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

945
FXUS62 KRAH 161817 RRB
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
117 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will weaken and modify over the Carolinas
through Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the region on
Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the area late Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...

A warming trend is occurring today as high pressure continues to
move off the coast to our south. This will cause light southerly to
southwesterly surface winds over the region, allowing highs to rise
generally into the upper 40s to around 50. This should still be
about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Tonight,
temperatures look to drop below freezing everywhere in central NC,
with the coldest areas reaching mostly the upper 20s to around 30,
with some cooler locations reaching the mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Overview: Aloft, as a nrn stream s/w passes to the north on Wed, a
second s/w will approach from the west. This second s/w will
progress ewd across the area Wed night. Meanwhile to the west, the
longwave trough will amplify over the Plains/MS Valley as a potent
nrn stream s/w moves across the Rockies and into the Plains Wed/Wed
night. The srn stream s/w over the NW Gulf will lift quickly newd
into the Southeast US on Thu as the nrn stream s/w moves ewd across
the Plains and MS Valley. Both shortwaves will continue ewd across
the Southeast US and mid-Atlantic Thu night, with the longwave
trough moving into the region on their heels. At the surface,
Bermuda high will remain in place, ridging into the Southeast US
during the day Wed, while a lee trough weakens and a transient high
moves across the nrn mid-Atlantic. As the high shifts offshore and
strengthens Wed night, a warm front will begin lifting nwd into the
area. While some weak ridging may extend across the far nrn/nwrn
portions of central NC Thu morning, largely expect the warm front to
lift across most of the area by mid-day. The question is whether
some in-situ CAD is able to set up and how long it remains in place
on Thu. With the warm advection and isentropic lift, the low-mid
levels should quickly saturate Thu morning, with some light rain
possible in the west, though confidence on occurrence is not high.
In the wake of the warm front, sly flow will increase, the pressure
gradient also increasing as a strong cold front approaches from the
west. The cold front should cross the Appalachians Thu night, but
guidance varies wrt how far east it progresses by 12Z Fri. Latest
consensus suggests it may be moving into or through the Triad by Fri
morning.

Precipitation: Wed/Wed night should largely be dry. Some light rain
is possible in the west Thu morning, but otherwise the chances for
rain and showers are maximized Thu night, roughly between 00Z and
12Z Fri, coincident with the s/w passages aloft. Rainfall totals
generally one-half to three-quarters of an inch across central NC.
Some thunder will be possible, with the highest chances across the
Sandhills and srn/cntl Coastal Plain.

Temperatures: Highs Wed generally in the mid to upper 50s, with lows
Wed night ranging from low/mid 30s north to around 40 degrees south.
Thu will be tricky, as it depends on the potential in-situ CAD
development and progression of the warm front. For now, expect highs
ranging from around 50 degrees NW to mid 60s SE, with the potential
to be off by a few/several degrees

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

* Strong wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be possible on Friday.

* A dry reinforcing cold front on Sun and strong high pressure
  building into the region will likely keep rain chances limited
  into early next week.

The leading edge of a cold front will be pushing through the area
through Fri morning. Cloud coverage should effectively clear out
through the morning into the early afternoon hours as the mid/upper
level pivots across the Mid-Atlantic and a drier Canadian airmass
filters into the region. Wind gusts 15 to 25 mph will be common
through the morning hours behind the fropa, but as cloud coverage
clears, frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph should be expected and
infrequent gusts of around 35 mph will also become possible. Wind
gusts should cease around sunset as the pressure gradient begins to
relax and the surface decouples with nocturnal cooling.

As far as precipitation chances, the forecast turns quieter through
early next week. A warm front will develop over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley Sat and shift into the Southeast on Sun ahead of an
approaching cold front motoring through the Ohio Valley. Moisture
return north of the warm front appears limited/short-lived and
provide little moisture to subsequently be lifted by the cold fropa
on Sun; this will keep the forecast mostly dry. Strong +1030mb
surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic by Mon. An
elevated warm-frontal zone will likely spread mid/high clouds back
into the area Mon evening into Tues, but precipitation appears
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...

VFR will prevail over the 24 hour TAF period. Generally clear skies
are expected through the day today, with a few high cirrus possible.
Light southerly to southwesterly winds are expected through the day
and into the night as well. By morning, high clouds will move in
from the west and will overspread the region through Wednesday
afternoon. Additionally, there will be a very limited threat of LLWS
Wednesday morning as a southwesterly low level jet strengthens over
the region. However, the threat is limited as the jet only looks to
be about 30-35 kts over central NC.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. Flight
restrictions and rain will accompany a frontal system across the
region Thu-Thu night. Additionally, low-level wind shear will be
possible Wed morning. VFR and dry weather will return on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/Blaes
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LH/MWS