Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS62 KRAH 121958
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over the area will shift offshore this
afternoon, as a weakening clipper low and attendant warm front lift
north along the SC-NC state line. This lead front will waver across
the area Saturday and Saturday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front
that will move across central NC on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 117 PM Friday...

* Flurries and very light snow over northern third will end by
  sunset.
* Expect a few clouds near the VA border overnight, but fair
  elsewhere, and chilly.

Weak surface high pressure analyzed late this morning over the Great
Dismal Swamp continues to push slowly E, while a diffuse frontal
zone sits NW to SE over the Carolinas. Mid level perturbations and
an upper jet streak continue to rotate through the region within the
E CONUS longwave trough base, generating areas of light snow and
flurries. Cloud bases are lower near the VA border, leading to a
dusting of accumulation in the border counties, while the higher
cloud bases further S in the Triad and Triangle have led to much
lighter flurries and fewer instances of a coating. As the forcing
for ascent departs to the east through the rest of the afternoon,
the light precip will cease with a drying column, yielding generally
fair skies tonight, although a few models suggest a limited threat
for some shallow low clouds and fog in the far N CWA overnight, not
out of the question given a slightly more damp ground there along
with light surface winds and high stability through the low levels
as the surface high is slowly to exit off the VA coast. Overall,
expect generally partly cloudy skies in the far N, with fair to
clear skies elsewhere. Expect lows to be about 5-8 degrees below
normal tonight, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 258 PM Friday...

* Partly to mostly sunny and mild Sat, then increasing clouds Sat
  night with a slight chance of rain overnight.

The broad and deep longwave trough over E NOAM will persist through
the weekend, but we`ll be within a brief period of subsidence for
much of Sat in the wake of today`s system. With the weak surface
having moved well offshore, the diffuse frontal zone is expected to
jump or lift to our N, placing us briefly in somewhat mild air with
a light wind from the W or SW. Slightly above normal thicknesses
with good insolation favor mild highs mostly in the mid 50s to
around 60.

A quite strong Arctic cold front will approach from the NW late Sat
through Sat night, moving into the Ohio Valley late Sat afternoon
with a prefrontal trough over the W Piedmont. It`s likely to still
be NW of the forecast area by sunrise Sun morning, but prefrontal
moisture spreading in from the SW will bring an increase in clouds,
most notably after midnight with the confluence of low and mid level
moisture spreading in from the Gulf states and KY/TN just ahead of
the approaching mid level trough axis, beneath the sharpening right
entrance region of the upper jet and within strong mid level height
falls. The moisture is not very deep Sat night, with the subcloud
layer remaining somewhat dry, but the strengthening dynamic forcing
for ascent may help compensate for this, yielding a slight chance of
light rain late, mainly across the south. Expect lows in the mid 30s
to low 40s in this area, with the hourly surface wet bulb temps
favoring liquid for any light precip that falls. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
As of 131 PM Friday...

* Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills Sunday night through Mon
  morning behind a strong Arctic cold front

* Moderating temperatures with highs possibly in the 60s by Thu

Sunday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower
50s) and dry Saturday under zonal flow aloft, an anomalous upper
trough will eject out of central Canada and dive southeast across
the eastern US through Monday evening. Associated cold air will
spill down the east coast with some of the coldest air of the season
(850 mb temperatures will fall into the 1st to 2nd percentile
compared to climatology by Sunday night).

At the sfc, models have come into better agreement moving the arctic
front into central NC a bit early in the day Sunday. As such,
guidance has come in colder for highs on Sunday with highs in the
mid to upper 30s across the north, to mid 40s across the south. The
CAA will really ramp up Sunday afternoon into early Monday, with
lows dropping into the lower to mid teens Sunday night/Monday
morning (potentially our coldest lows since 2022). Forecast
soundings still indicate good post-frontal mixing potential through
~06Z Monday morning. As such, our forecasted apparent temperatures
are still nearing or below Cold Weather Advisory criteria for much
of our area. Will monitor trends one more day, but a Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be needed at least for our northern areas.

The frontal passage should be accompanied with some anomalous
moisture and light precipitation (although the GFS is less bullish
on precipitation). Depending on the timing of the precipitation,
there could be a transition to wintry ptype on the backside of the
exiting light precipitation band across the northern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain. However, not confident in 1) how much
precipitation will occur, and 2) whether it`ll catch the cold air or
not. Overall though, qpf amounts are minimal Saturday night/Sunday.

Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 30s with PWAT dropping to 20
% of normal.

Tuesday through Thursday: After another chilly night Monday into
Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will
develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and mid 50s
Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday and
Thursday which could be our next shot at any precipitation but still
lots of uncertainty in this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

A band of mid-level ceilings, and patches of light, VFR snow/graupel
now over cntl NC, will streak ewd and offshore through this evening.
Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible Sat morning. Surface
winds will be light and variable, while surface high pressure
will otherwise linger overhead.

Outlook: A warm front and lift will result in a chance of rain and
flight restrictions Sat night-Sun morning, and also a risk of
advection fog mainly at FAY. Strong and gusty nnwly surface winds
will then result behind that front early Sunday, followed by even
stronger ones behind a closely-following Arctic cold front later Sun
and early Sun night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS