Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS62 KRAH 221726
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1225 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will lift north of central NC this morning. This
will be followed by a cold front that will push south through
central North Carolina Saturday afternoon and evening. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 156 AM Saturday...

The warm front continues to slowly creep northward into the central
Piedmont/Coastal Plain this morning.  Areas north of the front
continue to see obs with reduced visibilities from fog. Latest
guidance suggests the front should clear the NC/VA border through
sunrise this morning. As such, expecting the fog to largely clear
from south to north the next several hours. Will monitor
observational trends, but the Dense Fog Advisory will likely be
cleared earlier than previously thought.

Aloft, a few weak vorticity perturbations are generating light rain
to our north in VA, and along the NC/SC border this morning. Further
southwest, a bit steadier rain is moving over the north-central
Piedmont of SC. Expect some of this activity to advect east across
the NC/SC border through a bit after sunrise, but generally diminish
with eastward extend this morning.  By mid-morning, swly sfc flow
will pick up a bit with gusts up to 20 mph at times (highest south
and east of Raleigh). High temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s
this afternoon with partial clearing likely.

The main upper short-wave expected to pass over us later today is
currently sliding into the Ohio Valley.  This feature, and
associated weak mid-level height falls will generate isolated to
scattered pre-frontal showers and storms for portions of our area
today.  Latest CAMs have backed off on coverage some, but best
chances still appear across the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain mid-
afternoon and translating south across the Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain late afternoon/early evening. Dew points will reach
the lower to mid 60s across the NC/SC border, which should promote
some instability and probably best storm chances in that vicinity.
Shear will be potent, and could lead to some organization. However,
lapse rates aren`t overly impressive and as such think any severe
threat would be low at this point.

Any lingering convection should move south of our area by early
tonight. Wnwly flow will usher in dry air behind the passing cold
front tonight, but the colder air will lag a bit, promoting
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 AM Saturday...

PWAT drops to 50 to 75% of normal under dry nwly flow on Sunday as
mid-level ridging moves into the southeast. Expect dry and cool
weather with highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday afternoon.  Clear
and calm conditions with high pressure overhead Sunday night should
promote good radiational cooling potential. Expect lows to dip into
the mid to upper 30s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

A surface high will move east and offshore the VA and Delmarva coast
on Monday, turning the low-level flow southeasterly and increasing
high temperatures by a couple degrees on average compared to Sunday,
in the lower-to-mid-60s. Clouds will increase on Monday night as the
flow aloft turns southwesterly ahead of the next shortwave trough
moving from the Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes.

A warm front will lift through the area on Tuesday with dew points
quickly increasing into the 50s and lower-60s and high temperatures
in the lower-60s to lower-70s. Isentropic upglide will result in
persisting cloud cover and a chance for light rain. Meanwhile a
surface low will move ENE from the Northern Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes and southern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, with
the associated shortwave closing off into a mid/upper low during
this time. The 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better
agreement compared to last night with the GFS trending toward the
more progressive solution, bringing the associated cold front
through central NC on Wednesday evening. The ECMWF still brings it
through earlier in the day. At this time the best chance of showers
is on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, when lows will only drop
into the 50s. Average rainfall amounts on Tuesday and Wednesday are
around half an inch in the ensemble means, though locally higher
amounts will be possible. Isolated storms also can`t be ruled out on
Wednesday and shear will be strong with 60-70 kts of mid-level flow.
However, instability looks pretty marginal (around 500 J/kg of CAPE
or less) which would limit the severe threat, especially if the
front comes through early in the day as the ECMWF has been
depicting. Wednesday`s temperatures will depend on the exact timing
of the front, but for now the forecast calls for highs increasing
further to upper-60s to mid-70s with lows Wednesday night in the 40s.

High pressure building in from the west will bring a return to dry,
mostly sunny, and cooler conditions on Thursday and Friday. Highs
will drop to the mid-50s to lower-60s on Thursday and lower-to-mid-
50s on Friday. Lows will get down to the lower-to-mid-30s by Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

TAF period: No restrictions are currently expected at INT/GSO
through the next 24 hours. An outflow boundary moving through this
afternoon will veer the wind to the northwest, but it appears that
any sprinkles that would have occurred have already moved across the
terminals. Cannot rule out a brief low ceiling overnight, but this
appears unlikely.

Farther to the east, the forecast is more complicated. The line of
showers has yet to move through these terminals. At this point it
appears that FAY will likely not have any precipitation from this
line, but have kept the PROB30 group in at RDU (where thunderstorms
appear unlikely) and RWI (where greater instability could result in
a thunderstorm). Again, the winds will veer to the northwest with
the outflow boundary, but models are now showing a greater amount of
low-level moisture overnight. While the previous set of TAFs
mentioned fog restrictions, think that the wind remaining around 5
kt will limit the fog potential, and have instead gone with stratus
in the forecast. This should persist from late this evening past
sunrise on Sunday, with conditions then scattering out.

Outlook: The primary chance of rain in the extended forecast will
come between Tuesday and Wednesday night, with the best chance of
rain and restrictions coming Tuesday night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green