Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS62 KRAH 251838
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes to the forecast. Well-above-normal temperatures
  are showing up at the end of the forecast period, which is middle
  of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

1) Unsettled weather and near to above normal rainfall are expedited
late this week into the weekend.

2) Heat is expected to return next week.

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather and near to above normal rainfall
are expected late this week into the weekend.

The stalled frontal boundary to our south will gradually lift north
across the region by Thursday, accelerating a warming and moistening
trend. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs tracking through the
Midwest will carve out a broader upper-level trough over the eastern
U.S. This pattern evolution will result in an unsettled weather from
Thursday through the weekend.

Precipitation coverage will likely peak Friday into Saturday as PW
values surge toward 2.0 inches, coinciding with a final, amplifying
shortwave digging into the Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians along with a surface cold front. While widespread cloud
cover and daily convective overturning may limit diurnal
destabilization, deep southwesterly flow and modest instability will
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Cumulative
rainfall is expected to be near or above normal, with an outside
threat of localized flooding based on the pattern.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Heat is expected to return next week.

The frontal zone should again stall to our south over the weekend,
with a gradual pattern shift expected into next week as upper level
heights build across the Deep South.

Discrepancies exist in the extended guidance regarding the amplitude
of this transition:

GFS-based guidance favors strong, anomalous ridging over the eastern
U.S. by mid-to-late week.

ECMWF-based guidance depicts flatter, more zonal flow initially,
followed by and expanding ridge late in the period.

Regardless of the exact model solution, both global models support a
robust warming trend. Temperatures are expected to climb well above
normal (climo highs are mid to upper 80s) by late next week,
accompanied by a return to a typical summertime pattern featuring
isolated/scattered showers and storms and near-normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

High pressure and associated continental/dry air will build across
and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic through early Wed and favor VFR
conditions and light and variable surface winds over cntl NC.
However, onshore/return flow moistening around the high will
probably result in the development of an area of low stratus across
SC and into the Foothills of NC overnight-Wed morning; and that
moistening may support the development of MVFR-based stratocumulus
with diurnal heating at FAY Wed late morning through early
afternoon. An isolated shower/storm will also be possible mainly at
INT/GSO Wed afternoon-evening.

Outlook:. Moisture will further increase over cntl NC and support
the development of both morning stratus/mist and afternoon and
evening showers and storms Thu-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...MWS