Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS62 KRAH 150019
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
818 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion to reflect the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

1. Strong to severe storms will be possible today. Water loaded
downbursts will bring a primary hazard of damaging straight-line
winds.

2. There will be minimal showers and storms Monday through Wednesday
before widespread precipitation arrives on Friday.

3. Heat returns for Thursday and possibly Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 16Z, many of the CAMs (and esp the HRRR) have
underrepresented the existing convection that is currently moving
across the NC mountains and that raises concerns regarding
downstream convective evolution across central NC later today.

Overall, the severe weather threat remains dependent on the degree
of convective organization that can be maintained as mountain
convection moves east and interacts with a moderately unstable and
very moist air mass across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. MLCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg (higher CAPE values east), steep low-level
lapse rates, and DCAPE supportive of strong downdrafts should favor
damaging straight-line winds as the primary hazard.  In addition,
the CAMs which are more robust with convection evolution and
coverage today also appear to be taking advantage of pre-existing
mesoscale dewpoint boundaries and perhaps the Piedmont trough
convergence and thus depict widely scattered single-cell storms
developing ahead of the convection that is currently to our west.
Given the aforementioned CAM uncertainties, greater forecast weight
will be placed on observational trends and the evolving mesoscale
environment.   Its worth noting again that any of the
stronger/taller cells later today will be capable of producing
localized damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A front should generally be along the I-95 corridor
Monday morning and will continue to drift to the Atlantic coastline
by Tuesday morning before moving offshore on Wednesday. With central
North Carolina on the cooler and drier side of the front, the
chances for precipitation the next few days should be greatly
reduced. Any diurnally driven storms Monday through Wednesday should
be east of I-95 and relatively isolated in coverage. The next
widespread chance for precipitation will come with low pressure that
will pass over the Great Lakes on Thursday and continue northeast
along the Canadian/United States border Friday and Saturday. The
associated cold front could bring a late day storm to the Triad on
Thursday, but will bring most of its precipitation to central North
Carolina Friday and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High temperatures will be noticeably cooler on
Monday, with values 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Sunday. Tuesday will
vie for the coolest day of the week with all locations remaining in
the 80s. Temperatures will then begin to rise again by Wednesday
with a return to the 90s, and some locations pushing triple digits
by Thursday. The timing of the next cold front will determine how
warm temperatures rise on Friday, but Saturday should drop back into
the 80s again. With lower humidity values through mid week, heat
indices will be similar to air temperatures Monday through
Wednesday. Increasing humidity along with increasing temperatures
may require a heat advisory on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM Sunday...

Through 00Z Tuesday: Clusters of showers and storms are currently
moving east into the Coastal Plain. They have largely cleared all
TAF sites except RWI which could see a heavy downpour, lightning,
gusty winds, and brief sub-VFR conditions over the next hour or so
if a storm passes overhead. This should be the end of the best rain
chances, but scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm can`t
be ruled out this evening into the early overnight hours if
convection currently over the Mountains is able to make it into our
western zones. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with just some broken mid and high clouds that become more
scattered on Monday. A cold front will move through from NW to SE
overnight into early Monday morning (from about 07z to 13z). This
will bring a wind shift from SW to NW, remaining around 7-10 kts
with gusts to 15-20 kts possible at times. Can`t rule out patchy fog
later tonight where rain fell today, if it can occur before the cold
frontal passage brings in much drier air. However, confidence in it
occurring is too low to include mention in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Mostly dry conditions are expected from Monday through
Wednesday, with only a slight chance of a stray shower or storm in
the afternoon and evening in the far south and east (including FAY
and RWI). There is a better chance of convection in the northwest
(including INT and GSO) on Thursday, but the most widespread
shower/storm coverage across all of central NC will be on Friday and
Friday night as the next cold front moves through. While not likely,
sub-VFR ceilings and mist can`t be ruled out overnight into early
morning where heavier rainfall occurs during the afternoon/evening
convection, with a better chance by Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926  KRDU: 97/1944  KFAY: 100/2022

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015  KFAY: 102/1944


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025  KRDU: 79/2022  KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022  KRDU: 78/2025  KFAY: 76/1926

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 77/2025  KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970  KRDU: 73/2025  KFAY: 77/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION... np/TG
AVIATION...Danco/np
CLIMATE... RAH