Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS62 KRAH 221741
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Continued increasing confidence in widespread rain, locally heavy
  at times, through the middle of next week. Rainfall amounts during
  this time are expected to range from 2 to 4 inches on average.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 140 PM Friday...

1) Cool and rainy this afternoon and tonight over much of the
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain with a CAD wedge in place. South
and east of the wedge will be warmer with scattered showers and
storms.

2) Saturday will feature a wide range of temperatures, ranging from
well below normal in the Triad to near normal across the Southeast.

3) A front that will linger across the region will bring high
precipitation chances throughout the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cool and rainy over much of the Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain with a CAD wedge in place. South and east of
the wedge will be warmer with scattered showers and storms.

This Afternoon through Evening: A sharp temperature gradient will
persist across the region this afternoon as a Cool Air Damming wedge
boundary sets up across the Piedmont. North of this boundary, across
the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, cool conditions
will remain locked in with temperatures stuck in the upper 50s to
low 60s. To the south and east, warmer temperatures will reach the
low-to-mid 70s, where around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE is triggering
isolated showers and thunderstorms. While this convective activity
is currently limited to the far southeast Coastal Plain, coverage is
expected to expand northward overnight as a weak frontal boundary
lifts across the area.

Tonight through Early Saturday Morning: The best chance for
widespread precipitation will arrive during the overnight hours and
persist into early Saturday morning. While hi-res model guidance
shows some disagreementwith some solutions favoring lighter rain
overnight and others depicting a more robust scenario with heavier
showers and stormsthe overall trend will be a steady increase in
rain chances overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Saturday will feature a wide range of temperatures,
ranging from well below normal in the Triad to near normal across
the Southeast.

With high pressure off the New England coast, northeast flow has
allowed for cold-air damming to develop across North Carolina. While
the wedge front is expected to eventually retreat to the north and
bring central North Carolina back into the warm sector, the timing
that the wedge front retreats is something that is tricky for
computer models - and there is high bust potential for tomorrow`s
temperatures. Considering the models usually show CAD retreating too
quickly, will go with a slower model solution that keeps cooler air
pinned into the Triad through the day, while allowing temperatures
to warm up a bit across southern counties. The forecast calls for
temperatures to rise near 70 degrees in the Triad, while the
Triangle should climb into the mid 70s and Fayetteville into the low
80s. After the front retreats to the north Saturday night, highs
through the rest of the forecast will generally be in the low 80s
across the north and mid 80s across the south.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A front that will linger across the region will
bring high precipitation chances throughout the next seven days.

A second shortwave moving northeast across the Appalachians on
Saturday should help trigger the next round of precipitation, once
again favoring western locations. A stronger line of thunderstorms
could approach western counties late Saturday afternoon, although
the Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook does not show a severe threat
across these counties. By the time the wedge front moves north of
the region, likely by Sunday morning, there should be a wide swath
of showers extending from New England all the way southwest into
Texas. While there will no longer be a wedge across the Carolinas,
the front should remain nearly stationary into the middle of next
week, generally draped from the mid-Atlantic west into the central
Plains and extending south into Texas. High pressure over the
western Atlantic will result in southerly flow across the
southeastern United States, continuing to pump warm, moist air into
the region. There are some indications that the front could drop
south of the area Wednesday into Thursday, which would put central
North Carolina onto the drier side of the front and bring a
reduction in the chance of rain for the end of the week. However,
over the next seven days, the forecast calls for a broad area of two
to four inches of rain across the entire forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Widespread IFR conditions will continue across the region through
the period as CAD wedge remains in place. Periodic light rain and
mist will keep visibilities in the MVFR/IFR range, with the lowest
ceilings (~400 ft) expected late tonight into Saturday morning. KFAY
and KRDU may see a brief, slight improvement to low-end MVFR late
this afternoon, though have a PROB30 for TSRA at KFAY this afternoon
into early evening as storms begin to expand north. Winds will
generally remain out of the northeast around 5-10 kt, with some
minor easterly veering at the eastern sites tomorrow morning. Expect
very little relief through Saturday afternoon, with ceilings holding
at IFR levels.

Outlook: The persistent CAD wedge is forecast to stick around
through much of Sunday before eroding. Widespread IFR/LIFR stratus
and patchy fog will remain a strong possibility overnight Saturday
into Sunday morning. However, convective and ceiling patterns will
transition into a standard diurnal trend Sunday through mid-week,
featuring periods of VFR/MVFR daytime conditions outside of
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22:
KFAY: 73/2004

May 23:
KFAY: 72/2011

May 24:
KRDU: 70/2011
KFAY: 72/2000

May 25:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 71/2019
KFAY: 71/2019

May 26:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 75/2004

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/Green
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH