Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

608
FXUS62 KRAH 170659
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Friday...

A few notable changes.

* A weaker cold front will slip through the area dry today. Winds
  will be lighter today. Yet, relative humidities dip below 30
  percent and temperatures near or exceed 90 in behind the front. We
  may have to issue a fire danger statement again later this
  morning, but as of now we do hot have one in effect.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Friday...

1) The early season heat wave continues into the weekend. Lighter
winds today preclude another fire danger statement. Yet, there are
still concerning low humidities, high temperatures, and dry fuels.

2) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of light
rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures then turning
cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The early season heat wave continues into the
weekend. Lighter winds today preclude another fire danger statement.

Coordination with the NCFS revealed that the lighter winds today
around 10 mph should reduce the fire danger threat. However, the
weak front will pass by dry. It will will become mostly sunny and
remain hot today. Highs will reach around 90 for most areas. Winds
will become WNW around 10 mph. The relative humidities should settle
down into the 25 to 30 percent range. So, there is still a concern
and I would not be surprised if the NCFS requests a statement again
after mid-morning when the data is analyzed further.

Surface winds will increase on Saturday as the pressure gradient
tightens, especially east of the Blue Ridge lee trough over central
and eastern NC. Temperatures will also peak for this heat wave into
the lower to mid 90s. So, it seems fire concerns will be there again
Saturday as winds reach 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a
chance of light rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures
then turning cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday
morning.

A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning through
early afternoon. Models are still showing generally light anafrontal
rain behind the frontal passage Sunday morning through early
afternoon. A few models are still showing the rain later in the
afternoon. If this does occur, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out, especially in the east. Overall, mostly light
stratiform rain is expected, with less than 0.25 inch of rain being
shown in all of central NC by both ensemble and deterministic
models. Thus, little relief from drought conditions are expected.
Also with the frontal passage, gusty winds are expected Sunday
morning through afternoon, with model soundings suggesting wind
gusts around 20-30 mph being possible.

The front will drop temperatures back near normal, even reaching
below normal at times. As the front passes through on Sunday, highs
should remain cooler, potentially only reaching the 70s in the
southeastern half of the CWA where the front will take longer to
move through. Sunday night, lows look to drop into the low to mid
40s, dropping into the upper 30s in the coolest spots. Lows will
drop further Monday night as high pressure builds into or just north
of the region. Temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s look likely,
as good radiational cooling conditions should be met. This may lead
to areas of patchy frost being possible Tuesday morning, especially
north. Highs on Monday look to drop into generally the mid 60s to
around 70s, with temperatures then increasing each day Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. SW surface winds will shift to the WNW at 10 knots after the
fropa with little to no rainfall or restrictions later this morning.
Otherwise, VFR.

Outlook: Another cold front Sunday will bring a low end chance of
showers and MVFR to IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941
April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921
April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH/Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/Green