Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

585
FXUS62 KRAH 182348
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes were made to the going forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 133 PM Saturday...

1) Unseasonably hot, near record temperatures today.

2) Noticeably cooler Sunday with little if any wetting rain.

3) Patchy frost possible Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a warming
trend mid to late week is expected with little rain chances till
end of the extended period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 133 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonably hot, near record temperatures today

Temperatures as of 1pm are already running in the upper 80s to
some low 90s across central NC. Temperatures will continue to
climb up until the early evening, likely tying or breaking
record highs today. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus is
favored but will not be enough to limit the unseasonably hot
weather.

Dewpoints have continued to mix out this afternoon, similar to
the past few days. Readings are presently in the middle 40s over
the Piedmont. We adjusted the forecast to account for these
critically low RH levels in the upper teens to middle 20s.
Remember, the statewide burn ban issued by the NCFS remains in
effect.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Noticeably cooler Sunday with little if any
wetting rain.

A strong cold front will push through during the morning hours.
Just immediately behind the front, NW winds of 15 to 20 mph
will reach gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range, with even some
infrequent gusts to 35 mph over the Piedmont. As such, highs
will likely be felt during the early morning hours over the NW
Piedmont and mid-morning hours in the southeast with upper 60s
NW to low/mid 70s SE. Once the front moves through, we will see
temperatures briefly fall into the mid 50s to low 60s before
briefly recovering late in the day in the low to mid 60s.

As for rain chances, not much has changed compared to the prior
forecast package. The 12z HREF has continued the low-end rain
amounts, with only a few hundredths of an inch at best over most
areas, with little to none over the southern Piedmont and
Sandhills. The best chance of rain will be during the morning to
early afternoon. Some enhanced frontogenesis along the front
over the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain should
favor some isolated amounts of a tenth of an inch of rain, in
line with the latest ensemble guidance. But overall, this is not
a wetting rain to limit fire potential. The NW wind gusts over
the western Piedmont will combine with dewpoints crashing into
the lower to mid 20s post- frontal, resulting in RH in the 20-25
percent range late Sun afternoon. This will promote rapid fire
spread, so the public is again urged to heed the NCFS fire ban.

Winds should turn calm Sun night, resulting in some colder lows
from the upper 30s to low 40s, in line with the latest
statistical guidance.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Patchy frost possible Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
a warming trend mid to late week is expected with little rain chances
till end of the extended period.

A strong sfc high is expected to traverse over the Mid-Atlantic
Monday into Tuesday. This will lock in nely flow Monday night with
low-level thicknesses generally ranging between 1300 to 1330 m.
Statistical guidance continues to suggest possible near to just
below freezing lows in our traditionally cooler spots along the
NC/VA border. There is some uncertainty wrt to how much mixing might
persist overnight, but overall looks to be a decent signal for at
least frost producing temperatures to be reached Tuesday morning.

After a few cooler afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday (highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s), the offshore ridge will re-establish itself
across the southeast pumping temps back up into the mid to upper 80s
by Friday/Saturday.

Precipitation wise, some high-res guidance is suggesting a few
isolated showers may accompany the passage of an upper trough Monday
afternoon. However, forecast soundings appear to be a bit too dry in
the lower levels. As such, virga seems more favorable than
measurable rain at this point, if anything at all.

Ensembles remain dry through early Friday, with some signal for
better rain chances sometime in the late Friday to Sunday
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are likely to hold through the next 24 hours
across central NC terminals, although a passing cold front is
expected to bring a period of bkn-ovc clouds just above MVFR
thresholds (topped by mid and high clouds as well), with this
lower deck mainly very late tonight through Sun morning. We`ll also
have some wind concerns aloft: A nocturnal inversion plus a low
level SW jet at 1500-2000 ft AGL over N and E NC may bring
borderline low level wind shear conditions to RDU/RWI/FAY this
evening/tonight, mainly 02z-09z. Then, as the front pushes WNW-to-
ESE through central NC during roughly 08z-14z, winds will shift to
be from the NW, sustained 12-17 with frequent gusts to 22-30 kts,
lasting at least into the mid afternoon, with a slight decrease in
speeds toward the end of the TAF period. Clouds will clear out
between 18z (in the NW) to 22z (in the SE).

Looking beyond 00z Mon, wind speeds will continue to lower with
diminishing gusts by mid evening. VFR conditions are likely to hold
through Thu, under high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All-time records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941

April 24:
KRDU: 93/1960
KFAY: 95/1925


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 18:
KRDU: 63/1941

April 24:
KGSO: 62/2004

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Luchetti
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH