Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

489
FXUS62 KRAH 101809
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 PM Friday...

1) Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms both Friday
and Saturday afternoons.

2) Isolated to scattered storm chances continue into Monday with a
backdoor cold front.

3) After a reprieve from the heat Sun through Tue, hot temperatures
expected to return mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 AM Friday...

Key Message 1: Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms
both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

The persistent hot and humid airmass continues today across central
NC. Despite the potential for scattered afternoon convection, strong
insolation through early afternoon should support highs in the mid
to upper 90s, with a few locations near 100 degrees across the
southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. With sfc dewpoints expected to
remain in the lower to middle 70s, peak heat index values of 105 or
more are expected this afternoon, particularly south and east of
Raleigh where convective development will hold off until later in
the day (compared to locations farther north and west where
showers/thunderstorms may occur earlier). Confidence remains high
that Heat Advisory criteria will be met across Scotland, Hoke,
Cumberland, and Sampson counties, thus a heat advisory has been
issued for those four central NC counties from 11 AM until 8 PM
today. While thunderstorms may provide localized relief later this
afternoon and evening, they will arrive too late to significantly
limit daytime heat stress, particularly in the advisory counties.
Residents with prolonged outdoor exposure should take frequent
breaks, remain hydrated, and seek air-conditioned environments
whenever possible.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated to scattered storm chances continue into
Monday with a backdoor cold front.

An area of low pressure and mid-level disturbance currently across
the Mid MS valley will slowly reach the TN valley by Sunday. As that
happens, a backdoor cold front will gradually approach from the
northeast. Depending on the ensemble or deterministic model one
looks at, the front may move through Sunday or early Monday.
Regardless, it looks as though the front settles south of the region
Monday as cool 1024-mb high pressure builds down from the northeast.

Ahead of the front, we will continue to be in that isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening storm regime. That storm risk
appears more focused over the western and southern Piedmont and
Sandhills of central NC Sunday, in line with the latest SPC marginal
risk southwest of the Triangle. Increased mid-level flow of 25-35 kt
will support a risk of damaging straight line winds.

As the boundary shifts south Monday, stability should favor reduced
storm chances, though diabatic precipitation will be possible in any
CAD-type regime. Overall subsidence should favor dry weather Tuesday
into most of next week.


KEY MESSAGE 3... After a reprieve from the heat Sun through Tue, hot
temperatures expected to return mid-late next week.

A backdoor cold front will approach Sunday and settle south of the
region Monday. The latest model and ensemble guidance shows a rather
strong high for this time of year extending down into the region
Monday at around 1024-mb. In addition, with a trailing low pressure
over the TN valley, there is the potential for a CAD-type wedge to
develop Sun into early next week. Whether or not that develops in
mid-July remains to be seen. Regardless, ensembles do indicate
anomalously cool 850-mb temperatures during this time. This along
with increased cloud cover should favor a reprieve from the heat
with largely middle 80s, perhaps some low 80s Sunday and Monday.

Most ensemble scenarios indicate that troughing over the TN valley
next week retrogrades westward into the middle to latter part of
next week. As that happens anomalously ridging over the Upper MS
valley will build in from the northwest. The 850-mb temperatures Wed
through Fri are currently projected to range from 20-22 degC,
approaching near-max values for mid-July. That should propel the
area to see a return to the heat with mid and upper 90s to near 100
in spots. The HeatRisk currently is forecast to reach a level 3 of
4, especially Thu onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

TAF period: While the bulk of the next 24 hours should have VFR
conditions, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop and bring flight restrictions to all terminals. The HRRR
model has been very consistent showing the line forming over western
North Carolina and progressing to the east. Confidence is not as
high with the thunderstorms holding together for RWI and FAY, but
nevertheless have changed the PROB30s to TEMPOs at all terminals.
Strong wind gusts will be the primary concern with the
thunderstorms, although flight restrictions are likely as well. The
current forecast calls for a return to VFR flight conditions after
storms move through, but depending on how much rain occurs at a
given terminal, cannot rule out the potential for some fog/stratus
to develop around sunrise.

Outlook: A cold front will move through the region Saturday night.
Scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will become more numerous
Saturday night, and continue Sunday, Sunday night, and across the
south on Monday. Conditions should finally dry out by Monday night.
Flight restrictions will be possible in any precipitation, with
widespread MVFR/IFR beginning to move in from the north by Sunday
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 10:
KRDU 99/1993  KFAY 103/1986


Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 11: KGSO 75/1992  KRDU: 77/1981  KFAY: 77/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Kren
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH