Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

490
FXUS62 KRAH 310617
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
217 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Friday...

1) After dry weather today and only a slight chance of showers and
storms in the far west on Saturday, moisture and probability of
convection will increase on Sunday and continue into at least early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... After dry weather today and only a slight chance of
showers and storms in the far west on Saturday, moisture and
probability of convection will increase on Sunday and continue into
at least early next week.

There is high confidence that a positively-tilted mid/upper trough
will approach from the OH/TN Valleys this weekend. While the trough
should still be far enough west to keep much of central NC dry on
Saturday outside of the far western Piedmont where POPs are slight
chance, it will slowly make its way east on Sunday and Monday, with
deep SSW flow ahead of it bringing increasing moisture (PW values of
2-2.5 inches, or 125-150% of normal). Despite widespread cloud
cover, high temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 70s should
still allow for weak to moderate instability to develop. And by
Monday, embedded upper impulses and possible upper divergence from a
jet over the Appalachians may provide some forcing for ascent. All
of these ingredients should result in widespread showers and storms
from Sunday into Monday night, and ensemble mean QPF is generally in
the 0.5-1.5 inch range on average during this time. Locally higher
amounts are possible, and WPC includes our region in a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Monday. This certainly
provides an opportunity for more relief from the ongoing drought.

Despite good model agreement on widespread rainfall on
Sunday/Monday, there are still major differences between the global
models on how the trough evolves. The GFS continues to keep its
southern portion stronger and closes off a low over the OH Valley
and Central Appalachians by Monday, and the 00z CMC does something
similar. This solution would result in stronger mid-level flow and a
possible severe storm threat, compared to the ECMWF which does not
have a closed low over the OH Valley and thus has weaker flow
overall.

The trough will lift NE and deamplify from Tuesday onward, but
continued moist SW flow should result in above-normal shower and
storm chances through much of the workweek, albeit gradually
decreasing each day. This will keep temperatures in check with highs
mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM Friday...

Moisture, and associated FEW/SCT cloud cover, will continue to
periodically pool at the base of an inversion around 6-8 kft
throughout the night with light to calm winds. Given favorable
decoupling tonight, minimal mixing in the lowest 100mb, and local
influences around RWI, a short TEMPO for mist was introduced.
Greatest confidence would be surrounding sunrise, but may occur as
early as around 08z when latest LAV guidance suggest temps may reach
within 3 degrees of the crossover temperature. FEW/SCT fair weather
cu is expected by this afternoon around 5-7 kft before gradually
diminishing after sunset.

Outlook: A gradual increase in low-level moisture through the
weekend will favor increasing chances of low stratus/fog at RWI and
FAY Sat morning and over the wrn Piedmont (INT/GSO) Sun morning,
followed by above average chances of showers/storms and flight
restrictions area-wide Sun through early to mid next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JD
AVIATION...AS/MWS