Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS62 KRAH 090540
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1240 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

* Thursday is trending drier with increased chances Saturday and
  Sunday for precipitation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

1) Trending warmer by Tuesday with a chance of rain Wednesday

2) High temperatures across central NC will fall back to below
average on Thursday and then well below average on Friday.

3) Uncertainty in the evolution weather systems for Friday through
Sunday is high, although ensembles suggest precipitation on Friday
into Saturday is likely to limited and light with a better signal
for a more significant precipitation event on Sunday. Precipitation
type is uncertain with a tremendous range in the pattern and
locations of cyclogenesis.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

Key Message 1: Trending warmer by Tuesday with a chance of rain
Wednesday

Early morning satellite imagery and surface obs show quite a bit of
cloud cover stretching from the lower Great Lakes across the
mountains and into the western Piedmont of NC. While this has
managed to keep temps in the lower 30s in those areas this morning,
temps elsewhere have had no problem dropping into the 20s, teens,
and even lower teens near the NC/VA border.

Today will begin a gradual warmup across the area, although
afternoon highs will still be well below normal with highs in the
upper 30s in the north and in the low/mid 40s in the south. It`s not
until the flow aloft becomes more zonal on Tuesday and surface high
pressure migrates offshore that we see the real warm advection start
in earnest. Look for afternoon highs to range from the upper 50s in
the north to the mid 60s across the Sandhills/southern Coastal
Plain. These will be some of the warmest temperatures we`ve seen
across the area in nearly a month, although they will be short lived.

Meanwhile, a weak wave will sweep through the area on Wednesday. The
overwhelming majority of EC/GFS/Canadian cluster groupings suggest
the need for a chance mention of precip across the area Wednesday,
with the highest probabilities (30-40 percent) generally along and
south of US-64, with lesser values (15-30 percent) to the north.
Rainfall amounts should be light, only a few hundredths of an inch,
tapering off in the wake of the wave Wednesday night. Even the 90th
percentile QPF during this period only looks to be a tenth of an
inch or less. Given cloud cover and precip, temps won`t be quite as
mild although afternoon highs should still be in the mid 50s to mid
60s. Post-frontal cold advection behind this wave will bring about
the end of the short lived warmup, with overnight lows Thursday
morning bottoming out in the low to mid 30s. At this point it would
appear precip should be over and done with well before any sub-
freezing temperatures arrive.


Key Message 2: High temperatures across central NC will fall back to
below average on Thursday and then well below average on Friday.

Following the passage of a cold front on Wednesday, a colder airmass
initially centered over the northern Great Lakes and Ontario will
extend into the region for Thursday and persist into Friday and
Saturday. Highs on Friday and Saturday are likely to range in the
40s to around 50.


Key Message 3: Uncertainty in the evolution weather systems for
Friday through Sunday is high, although ensembles suggest
precipitation on Friday into Saturday is likely to limited and light
with a better signal for a more significant precipitation event on
Sunday. Precipitation type is uncertain with a tremendous range in
the pattern and locations of cyclogenesis.

The upper-level pattern on Thursday into Friday will be dominated by
a northwest flow that will be dominated by a northern stream short
wave likely to dive southeast across the region on Friday into early
Saturday bringing a risk of light precipitation. With a weakening
area of high pressure to the north and marginal surface temperatures
some wintry precipitation is possible, but ensemble probabilities
note that QPF amounts for this system would likely range less than a
tenth of an inch.

Behind the exiting northern stream short wave, the flow will become
more zonal and disturbed with a southern stream trough moving across
the Deep South on Saturday and a weaker northern stream. This will
likely result a period of dry and fair weather before the next
weather system.

As the southern stream upper trough moves east, surface cyclogenesis
is expected across the eastern U.S. and Southeast. Examining
individual ensemble members shows the surface cyclone positioned on
Sunday afternoon all over the place anywhere from MI to the GA coast
and with a mix of Miller B and Miller A patterns providing no real
confidence in any real forecast details. It appears though that the
system on Sunday is apt to be the wettest feature of the week and
most impactful. Given a weakening surface high over the Northeast of
modest intensity, there is the potential for some CAD but it is
unclear how strong and potentially impactful it will be. The airmass
across the region appears cold enough at this point for at the
potential for at least some short lived wintry precipitation but
marginal temperatures and a greater chance of an inland track
suggests moderating temperatures would limit the wintry
precipitation totals and impact.

One other item of note, given the timing and placement differences
in the systems affecting the region on Friday through Sunday, the
NBM guidance and our forecast will likely continue to contain a
longer period of at least "chance" PoPs through much of this period
as PoPs are smeared and smoothed when in reality there will be a
period with no precipitation, perhaps on Saturday and not a 3-day
washout.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions. Some mid
level clouds are currently passing near or south of various
terminals, and after a period of clearing overnight, additional mid
level clouds will stream across the area during the daytime. With
high pressure over central North Carolina, winds are currently light
and variable, and will eventually take on a southerly component
around 5 kt this afternoon.

Outlook: Ground fog could possibly develop around daybreak Tuesday,
and there will be a chance of rain and restrictions at all sites on
Wednesday. There will be another chance for rain/restrictions on
Friday. Other than these three events, dry VFR conditions are
expected to prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Blaes
AVIATION...Green