Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

595
FXUS62 KRAH 030955
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM Friday...

* A slight slowing trend with the Sunday cold front. Otherwise,
  there`s increased confidence in high rain chances mid-late morning
  Sun in the NW Piedmont and Sun afternoon into early evening
  elsewhere.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM Friday...

1) Continued quite warm today and Saturday. Widespread showers and
some storms still expected Sunday ahead of a cold front. A severe
risk cannot be ruled out.

2) Turning cooler and below normal early to middle of next week,
with frost/freeze conditions possible midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued quite warm today and Saturday. Widespread
showers and some storms still expected Sunday ahead of a cold front.
A severe risk cannot be ruled out.

Models remain consistent with highs mainly in the lower 80s today
and in the lower-mid 80s Sat, roughly 10 to 15 degrees above the
normal highs for this time of year. We continue to track a strong
cold front forecast to move through Sun and Sun night. By Sun
morning, most ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates that the
front will stretch along the spine of the Appalachians from western
PA into far eastern TN and into the Lower MS valley. A continued
slower trend of the frontal passage appears to remain with the 12z
suite of ensemble guidance, with the main cold front moving through
late Sunday night. Ahead of the front, however, a pre-frontal
effective front may race ahead of the main boundary and induce
morning to early afternoon convection, suggested by the operational
GFS/CMC solutions. Regardless, deep moisture will aid widespread
showers by the afternoon to early evening as PW`s approach maximum
daily values for early April in the 1.3-1.4 inch range. Most
ensembles suggest a range of one quarter to one half inch of
rainfall across the area, not enough to make a dent in the expanding
drought. Sufficient instability will ultimately depend on timing of
the front and if any pre-frontal convection will develop, which
would weaken any daytime instability. The severe risk, therefore,
appears conditional, and bears watching with 35 to 40 kt of deep-
layer shear. A suite of AI convective guidance varies on potential
severe strength, but there is enough agreement signaling a 15 to 30
percent risk somewhere over central to eastern NC, with the NCAR AI
most aggressive and the NSSL AI focused mainly from the Coastal
Plain to the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning cooler and below normal early to middle of
next week, with frost/freeze conditions possible midweek.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage late Sunday night, a cooler
airmass is forecast to build into the region. Most guidance shows
that on Monday cool high pressure settles in, with highs hovering
slightly below normal in the mid to upper 60s. The true cooler
airmass arrives late Tuesday through early Thursday, when ensemble
and deterministic guidance shows good agreement on a Continental
polar high of near 1038 mb that settles down into the Mid-Atlantic
states. The coolest period looks to be Wednesday when the high will
nose down from PA and central NC is in a NE flow regime. Highs
midweek may range from the upper 50s to low 60s, some 10 degrees
below average. Of greater importance is the potential for
frost/freeze conditions Wed and Thu mornings in the below normal
airmass. Statistical and ensemble guidance indicate potential low to
mid 30s Wed morning, when optimal radiational cooling is favored.
The NBM currently indicates a 20-percent chance of 32F or lower and
a 40 to 50-percent chance of 36F or lower in the typical cooler
spots of central NC. Temperatures are forecast to moderate Thu
onward as return flow sets back in over the southeast US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Friday...

Areas of IFR-MVFR ceilings are expected over the Piedmont, to near
or just west of FAY and RWI, through around 14z-15z before
dissipating. A return to VFR conditions are expected by mid to late
morning lasting into tonight. There may be additional IFR stratus by
10z tonight in the Triad.

Outlook: Low-level moisture will gradually deepen and support the
development of IFR-MVFR ceilings again Sunday morning, ahead of a
cold front and chance of convection and flight restrictions that
will move across cntl NC Sun afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/GIH
AVIATION...pwb