Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS62 KRAH 101826
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
126 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Rain chances Thursday into Friday continue to trend lower, with
  most areas perhaps only seeing a trace of liquid.

* Some fire concerns may develop Friday and Saturday with the
  combined downslope wind gusts and low relative humidity.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 126 PM Tuesday...

1) A moisture-starved clipper low and frontal system will bring
below average temperatures for Friday through mid next week. Some
fire concerns may develop this weekend ahead of the widespread
freezing conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 126 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A moisture-starved clipper low and frontal system
will bring below average temperatures for Friday through mid next
week. Some fire concerns may develop this weekend ahead of the
widespread freezing conditions.

Nearly all guidance now has continued to trend drier with the
moisture-starved clipper low that is forecast to track to our north
Thursday into Friday. With this northward trend, little if any
rainfall is forecast across central NC as the bulk of the storm`s
energy focuses across the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. With that,
most of our area will be under a dry downslope pre and post-frontal.
The main cold front pushes through Thursday night, while a
reinforcing crosses the region Friday night. There could still be a
chance of a few sprinkles or light rain Friday as a secondary
shortwave digs across the Carolinas and Virginia, but even then
moisture will be lacking.

After the frontal passage, highs will go from the upper 60s to low
70s Thursday to the low to middle 50s Friday through mid next week.
This is about 10 degrees below normal, with the chilliest day
expected Saturday. Widespread freezing temperatures still appear
likely Sunday and Monday morning, when the pressure gradient finally
relaxes from gusty NW winds Friday and Saturday and CAA abates.
During this period, lows are favored to be in the upper 20s to low
30s. Continued below average temperatures and consecutive mornings
of damaging cold will continue into early next week as the cold
surface high remains in place.

With little if any rain forecast from the system, attention turns to
possible fire concerns with the ongoing drought. The concerned time
period is Friday and Saturday, when there could be an overlap of
gusty NW winds of 20-30 mph and RH in the 30-35 percent range. Right
now, conditions appear marginal, especially given chilly daytime
temperatures and wind gusts slightly below IFD criteria. But this is
something we will monitor as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail over the 24-hour TAF period, with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be from the SW around 5-10 kts for the rest
of this afternoon, becoming NW tonight but turning very light to
calm, then veering to S/SE by early afternoon tomorrow, remaining
less than 5 kts. Can`t rule out some very patchy shallow ground fog
again early Wednesday morning, with the best chance in the far SE
including FAY, particularly if the RRFS verifies. But other guidance
like the HRRR/RAP keeps any fog pinned near the coast, and don`t
have any mention in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather are expected through at
least Wednesday, and again over the weekend. Can`t rule out very
light rain on Thursday and Friday, but chances are trending lower,
as are the chances of sub-VFR restrictions. Gusty NW winds are still
expected Friday and Saturday after a cold frontal passage.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...Danco