Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXUS62 KRAH 011108
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
609 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered shower and QFP chances, and warmed temperatures mid-week
  through the weekend. What else is new?

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant high
clouds the rest of this weekend.

2) Chance of showers from late Wednesday night through Friday night
or Saturday. Continued very warm mid through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant
high clouds the rest of this weekend.

S and SW flow ahead of a mid-level short wave trough currently over
the central plains will spread abundant mid and high clouds across
our area through the rest of the weekend.  But it will remain dry
given the stable low levels and relative minimum in pwat and low
level dwpts.  The current airmass will support highs within a few
deg of seasonal averages.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers from late Wednesday night through
Friday night or Saturday. Continued very warm from mid through late
week. A bit cooler (but still above normal temperatures).

There is a chance of showers starting Wednesday night in the west,
then progressing NE over our region Thursday and Thursday night.
However, confidence remains low given the spread in the models and
the seemingly endless "kicking the can" down the road on days 5-7.
Even a week ago, models (we) were advertising increasing shower
chances on days 5-7. Yet, it has yet to verify. This next chance of
showers is advertised as a large spoke of energy tracks NE across
there region during Thursday with the main upper trough well to our
NW over the Midwest at that time. Thus, this forecast will likely
continue to be refined over time as models further adjust on the
timing and strength of the energy this far SE at that time.
Regardless, the SE upper ridge shifts just offshore. The south to
southwest flow ahead of the trough upstream will keep temperatures a
good 10-15 degrees (if not more) above normal Wednesday through
Friday. Lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s is more
typical of early September.

Then, all bets are off for the weekend as the models give and take.
Right now it appears that the main dynamics of the next upper trough
will again pass to our west and north this weekend, meaning low
chances of showers and continued warmth, but only 5-8 degrees above
normal instead of 15.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 609 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected with abundant mid and
high clouds over the region.  NE sfc winds 13kt or less.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the
upcoming work week with a small chance of some stratus/fog on
Wednesday morning and a better chance on Thursday morning. There is
also a chance of light rain in the west on Wednesday and areawide on
Thursday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/Badgett
AVIATION...np