Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXUS62 KRAH 070631
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  Confidence in rain and possibly even stormy weather late Saturday
   into Sunday continues to increase.

*  Collaboration call with WPC at 200 am revealed the Gulf system
   will likely be moving more quickly than previous forecasts. QPF
   maximums likely over the higher terrain in the NC mountains and
   near the inland moving coastal front with this system. Potential
   faster movement may help keep rainfall a bit lower than it could
   potentially be.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

1) Dry and warmer weather is expected through the work week.
Confidence in rain Saturday into Sunday continues to increase.

2) Impactful system for the weekend, note the discussion above and
below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and warmer weather is expected through the work-
week. Confidence in rain and possibly stormy weather continues to
increase Saturday into Sunday.

Quick update on potential QPF for the weekend...

Collaboration call with WPC at 200 am revealed the Gulf system will
likely be moving more quickly than previous forecasts. QPF maximums
likely over the higher terrain in the NC mountains and near the
inland moving coastal front with this system between 12z Saturday
and 18z Sunday. Potential faster movement may help keep rainfall a
bit lower than it could potentially be. Current projections are
around 1 inch for central NC, with 2-3+ inches near the coastal
front and in the mountains.

Previous discussion...

Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
Highs will return to around 80 today and reach the lower to mid 80s
Thursday. This will be the warmest day as SW-W flow will increase
ahead of the approaching dry cold front. The front will push south
through the region Thursday night. There will be little moisture to
work with in a deep westerly flow along and ahead of the front.
Thus, no POP. The skies will remain mainly clear/sunny. Cooler high
pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley Friday, then move
offshore Saturday. There will be increasing cloudiness on Saturday
with a chance of showers late, mainly in the south and west. Highs
will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s both Friday and Saturday.

Things will quickly change on Saturday into Saturday night as as the
system should be moving quickly. NHC depicts a potential hurricane
approaching the lower MS valley region by late Friday. This may
track north into the MS/AL areas Saturday. It appears a coastal warm
front will exist from NC/SC and potentially move inland Saturday
night as the remnant low tracks potentially west of the Appalachians
into Sunday. It appears at the current time that the chance of
showers will increase by Saturday, becoming likely by Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. Showers possibly thunder will
overspread the region into Sunday. Much more on all the possible
scenarios in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...

A ridge axis extending from roughly IXA to CLT from surface high
pressure just off the Mid-Atlantic coast will favor patchy/areas of
fog, most probable affecting RWI due to local affects. Although
fleeting near-surface banks of mist/fog can`t be ruled out at the
Triad terminals or RDU, crossover forecast technique suggests worst
case scenario would be a short period of mist around sunrise;
confidence is low enough to preclude including in the 06z TAFs.
Winds will remain light and variable underneath high pressure
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook: Shallow radiation fog will be possible at RWI Thu morning
and possibly again early Fri morning, although increasing mid/high
clouds will lead to lower forecast confidence in its development. A
reinforcing cold front will move through Fri morning. Rain and
flight restrictions, in cold air damming, are likely to develop late
Sat night into Sun.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...AS/MWS