Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS62 KRAH 040457
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1257 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

*  Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
   Sunday morning in the Piedmont. The associated cloudiness and
   showers will limit instability in the warm sector there Sunday.
   There still appears to be adequate instability for the
   development of scattered thunderstorms in the Coastal Plain and
   Sandhills, and possibly the eastern Piedmont Sunday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

1) Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday
ahead of a cold front. There continues to be a marginal risk of a
severe wind gust, especially if enough instability can develop in
the eastern Piedmont eastward to the coast Sunday afternoon.

2) Turning colder with below normal temperatures expected
early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions possible
midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
expected Sunday ahead of a cold front. There continues to be a
marginal risk of a severe wind gust, especially if enough
instability can develop in the eastern Piedmont eastward to the
coast Sunday afternoon. QPF of 0.25 to locally 0.60.

It appears that a pre-frontal trough or convective outflow will
arrive as a boundary that produces showers and isolated
thunderstorms well ahead of the cold front Sunday morning. There is
adequate moisture return for a narrow window of 3-5 hours of much
needed rainfall with this event. To the east of the Triad region, a
Marginal Risk of severe still exists for the potential for isolated
strong to locally damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms Sunday
from late morning through the afternoon. The warm sector should be
characterized with dew points of 60-65 with temperatures in the
upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially). Thus SBCAPES of up to 500 to
1000 j/kg expected mainly east of Raleigh. The big question will be
if the pre-frontal convection moves quickly through late morning
into the early afternoon stabilizing the region, and how far east
this stabilizing shower activity gets. New storms should develop
along the pre-frontal trough / convective outflow somewhere over the
NE-E Piedmont late morning and move eastward during the afternoon.
QPF of 0.25 to 0.60 appears to be the most likely outcome, with the
greater than 0.50 localized.

The front will move through later in the day with another narrow
convective line (likely not severe due to previous overturning) with
additional light QPF.

The front will clear the region Sunday night and this will set the
stage for colder week, with dry weather all week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning colder with below normal temperatures
expected early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions
possible midweek.

In the wake of the front, a modified high will build into the region
from the west Mon and Tue. A reinforcing Canadian high will slide
sewd across the nrn Plains/upper MS Valley Mon night/Tue, then
continue sewd across the Great Lakes and Northeast/mid-Atlantic Tue
and Wed The high should shift off the mid-Atlantic coast by Wed
night, continuing to ridge swwd into the region through Fri as it
lifts newd over the Atlantic. Temperatures should drop to near
normal (generally within 5 degrees) Mon and Tue, dropping further to
below normal Tue night through Wed night before moderating back to
near normal for the end of the week. The potential for frost/freeze
conditions remains for mid-week. The coldest night will be Tue night
when forecast lows drop into the mid/upper 30s, with the potential
(via some of the cooler guidance) for some low 30s, especially in
the usual cooler spots and across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

An area of locally higher low-level moisture around and southwest of
FAY may also result in sub-VFR conditions around sunrise, but steady
winds at the surface may prevent fog and result in LIFR/VLIFR cig
that lowers to briefly reduce vsby. Confidence to include in the 00z
TAFs is too low at this time given widespread cloud cover in this
region from prior shallow convection.

Outlook: A few showers and storms will be possible near and
especially southwest of INT/GSO Sat afternoon. Despite the
development of a nocturnal low-level jet in the lee of the srn and
cntl Appalachians Sat night, a well-mixed boundary layer and an at
least occasionally gusty swly surface breeze will limit the risk of
low-level wind shear. A pre-frontal trough and/or synoptic cold
front will focus showers and storms and flight restrictions as they
move across cntl NC Sun afternoon through evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/AS/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH