Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

581
FXUS62 KRAH 311008
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 605 AM
EDT Sat Oct 31 2026


.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Confidence in the evolution of the weather pattern and the chance
  of any impactful rain next week continues to decrease.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in
cloudiness is expected this weekend.

2) While the next best chance of rain will be mid to late next week,
forecast confidence in specific timing and amounts remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an
increase in cloudiness is expected this weekend.

The mid and upper level flow will become more southwesterly and
somewhat perturbed over the weekend resulting in increasing
moisture and periods of mid and high cloudiness mixed with some
sunshine. Despite the increasing moisture aloft, dry conditions
are expected with a stable and dry airmass near the surface.
A surge of cooler and drier air will continue to spread
southward across central NC this morning behind a cold front
that was now pushing into SC and GA. Low level thickness values
forecast for 12Z this morning will range between 1350 and 1365m
compared to the 1380 to 1385m range on Friday morning. This 15
to 20m drop in thickness values along with periods of high
cloudiness will result in highs of 64 north to 71 south which is
within a few degrees of the average high for this time of year.
With little change in airmass and conditions, highs on Sunday
will be very similar todays. Lows on Saturday and Sunday night
will range in the 40s which is near to about 5 degrees above
average.

KEY MESSAGE 2... While the next best chance of rain will be mid
to late next week, forecast confidence in specific timing and
amounts remains low.

The primary driver in our next precipitation chances remains the
slowly progressive low pressure system over the central CONUS and
Mississippi Valley midweek and how it evolves into the late week
period. Forecast confidence remains below-normal for this time range
as model guidance varies greatly on a wide variety of solutions that
will impact the sensible weather across the Carolinas.

Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z
guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance
favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend
continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario,
forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely
limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light
rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but
reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for
the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to
extreme drought persists.


&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions across the
area during the 24 hour TAF period.

Increasing mid and high level moisture will result in increasing and
thickening mid and high clouds through tonight with CIGS remaining
above 15kft through the TAF period.

A cold front moved south of the area overnight with a northeast wind
spreading across the area at 5 to 10 kts. A strengthening low level
jet just atop the boundary layer may result in some marginal LLWS
before daybreak but confidence is low enough to omit it from the
TAFs. As mixing commences this morning, a few hours of gusty winds
up to 18 kts is possible this morning into the midday hours.
Otherwise northeast winds at around 10 kts are expected this
afternoon with light northeast winds at 5 kts or less tonight

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the
upcoming work week with a small chance of some daybreak stratus/fog
across eastern locations on Wednesday morning. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes