Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

388
FXUS62 KRAH 111045
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 320 AM Monday...

1) A frontal system will bring the chance for rain
across the area today.

2) A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

3) Hot and dry weather returns this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal system will bring the chance for rain
across the area today.

Aloft, a s/w, within the base of the longwave trough will progress
ewd across the region through tonight. At the surface, a cold front
will drop swd into the area this morning. The front progression may
slow/stall briefly this aft as an area of low pressure develops
along it invof the SC/NC border, with the front continuing swd out
of the area as the low shifts ewd and off the Carolina coast. High
pressure will build in behind the front this eve and strengthen over
the area tonight before shifting offshore on Tue.

Precipitation: Highest chances for rain will be along the NC/VA
border behind the front from late morn through the aft. Closer to
the coast and depending on the timing of the front, showers and
perhaps a storm or two will be possible as a low developing along
the front near the NC/SC border shifts ewd and offshore this aft.
The best chance for any strong to severe storms will be in proximity
to this low (where forcing and instability will be maximized), which
is still expected to remain south of central NC, but could clip far
srn Sampson county if the front is slower than anticipated.

Temperatures: Highs today will greatly depend on the front and
precipitation, with a gradient of 10-15 degrees from N-S across the
area. For now, have highs in the mid 60s across the north and upr
70s across the south. Lows tonight in the mid 40s north to around 50
degrees south expected. Even with the fropa, the drier air may stay
north of the NC/VA border tonight, with temps falling to/near the
dewpoint temp overnight. Where the anafrontal rain does occur across
the north this aft, some potentially dense fog will be possible late
tonight/early Tue morn.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A weak cold front is expected to bring a chance of showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into the
evening. The moisture and instability again are forecast to be
lacking. Thus, there is little expectation of widespread or
significant rainfall. QPF of less than 0.25 is expected.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Hot and dry weather returns this weekend into
next week.

Much warmer or even hot weather is expected by next weekend when
highs should reach well into the 80s and lower 90s in the Sandhills
and Coastal Plain Saturday and Sunday. The heat is due to an
expanding mid-level ridge over the region next weekend. This ridge
and the heat may very well last well into the 8-14 day period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Any lingering sub-VFR conditions invof KFAY and
KRWI should return to VFR in the next hour or so. A cold front will
continue swd across the area this morning, with winds becoming nly-
nely and increasing behind the front. Gusts of 15-25kts are expected
in its wake. Additionally, while there is still some uncertainty wrt
the precipitation, an area of light rain with perhaps an embedded
shower or two is expected to move ewd, generally along the NC/VA
border, most likely impacting KINT, KGSO, possibly stretching as far
south and east as KRDU and KRWI this afternoon. MVFR cigs may
accompany the rain, creeping swd toward/into the nrn terminals this
aft/eve. Farther south, showers could impact KFAY, but may remain to
the south. Precipitation should clear out to the east this evening,
with cloud cover and winds also decreasing later this eve/tonight.
Fog is expected across the north early Tue morn, mainly where rain
occurs this aft/eve and where skies clear and winds go calm. The
highest likelihood of occurrence is at KINT/KGSO.

Outlook: Additional flight restrictions and rain are expected with
the passage of another frontal system Wed into Thu. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/Badgett
AVIATION...10