Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS62 KRAH 260538
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Slight downward trend in overall rainfall totals through
  Sunday morning.

* Rain chances continue to increase for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

1) Much above normal temps persist today. Fairly low RH and
ongoing dry fuels will lead to an Increased Fire Danger across
south-central NC today.

2) High chances for measurable rain persist for later through
Sun morning. Expected amounts have decreased a bit from this
morning.

3) Active period of increased frequency of rain events
continues into early May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Much above normal temps persist today. Fairly low RH and
ongoing dry fuels will lead to an Increased Fire Danger across
south- central NC today.

Warm and deep high pressure will hold over the Southeast coast
today, yielding low level thicknesses that remain around 25 m
above normal. This will again favor highs in the mid 80s to near
90, although increasing afternoon clouds in the W CWA will
lower insolation a bit there during the peak heating of the day.
Despite this early season heat, our records should not be
threatened (record highs today are 93 at RDU and 94 at FAY, both
set in 1925). Heat Risk tied to these high temps remains a
Level 2-of-4/Moderate today.

Due to the low level ridging spanning to our S, we`ll continue
to lack a tap of high low-level moisture into the area today,
resulting in min dewpoints in the mid 40s to around 50 over much
of the area. These values, along with the warm temps, will
result in min RH values in the 25-35% range across the S, and in
combination with very dry fine fuels and infrequent gusts up to
15-20 mph today will support an Increased Fire Danger over our
southern sections today. A statewide burn ban remains in effect
until further notice.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
High chances for measurable rain persist for later through Sun
morning, though amounts have decreased a bit from this morning.

Aloft, some s/w energy associated with a mid-level s/w tracking
across the Great Lakes/Northeast will move ewd across the area
this evening, helping further suppress the ridge southward.
Another s/w is expected to move quickly across the TN Valley
this evening and across the region tonight/early Sunday. At the
surface, as of 17Z, the low was located over NW PA, with a cold
front draped sswwd across the TN Valley and into the ARKLATEX,
and a quasi-stationary front draped ssewd across the mid-
Atlantic to off the NC coast. A remnant MCV over nrn GA lifting
nwd along the Appalachians and interacting with the s/w aloft
has already started producing showers and isolated storms over
the mtns east of the cold front. Chances and coverage of showers
should increase as the wave moves ewd across central NC and the
surface low drops sewd along the quasi-stationary boundary.
However, thunder chances remain somewhat limited, with forecast
(NAM) MUCAPE of less than 300 J/Kg and 6-Km bulk shear of 20-30
kts. The cold front will remain north and west of the area
tonight as the low tracks across SE VA/NE NC and offshore, then
finally begin to move into the area Sun morn as the low lifts
newd along the mid-Atlantic coast.

The hi-res guidance suggests some renewed convective
development along the front as the aforementioned s/w aloft
tracks across the area mid-day Sun, but it is all a matter of
the timing and location of both features where that convection
will occur. The highest chance for any showers/storms Sun will
generally be across the srn Piedmont and Sandhills of NC over a
limited window of time. Temperatures will also depend on these
features, with potential for a large spread in highs from NE to
SW. In the wake of the front, the ridge will build into and
strengthen over the area through Sun night before slowly
shifting ewd and weakening Mon/Mon night. For now, have highs
ranging from low/mid 60s NE to low 80s SW on Sun, with lows
generally in the 40s. Near to slightly below normal temperatures
expected Mon and Tue.

Total rainfall amounts are expected to be generally half an
inch or less, though a couple spots could see a little more. Not
a drought- busting rain event by any means, but any rain is
welcome.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Active period of increased frequency of rain events continues
into early May.

Precipitation chances continue to trend down for Tues as models are
trending stronger with the ridge axis in place ahead of perturbed
flow and narrow mid-level moisture axis that spreads into the Mid-
Atlantic on Tues. This initial wave does however work to begin
breaking down the ridge into a quasi-zonal flow regime and near-
normal PWAT values.

The forecast for Wed is shaping up to be our next chance for
widespread light rain. A convectively modified low-amplitude
shortwave over the central/southern Plains Tues evening
negatively tilts as it moves through the TN Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic Wed morning. This wave along with forcing along the
nose of strengthening upper-lvl jet streak will supply deep
lift within a plume of richer PWAT of 1 to 1.5 inches.
Reasonable low-end amounts show at least measurable across all
of central NC with higher amounts around 0.5". In the wake of
the mid/upper-lvl moisture band, continued moist and warming
boundary layer may support additional showers/storms during the
afternoon/evening hours; although this scenario is highly
conditional and dependent on several conditions to be met.

There may be some hope for a more appreciable precipitation
event just beyond the forecast period into early May. There is a
signal within ensemble guidance for a stalling frontal boundary
over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and weak low pressure spreading
more steady rainfall along and north of its track. Member MSLP
tracks range from the through the Southeast to over the
Carolinas, so forecast confidence in occurrence remains low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Central NC terminals are mostly VFR at this hour despite widespread
showers over much of the area, falling out of VFR cigs. But
confidence is high that adverse aviation conditions will overspread
central NC through 10z, lasting through at least early afternoon.
The rain over the last 18 hours has been due to a surface low now
over VA with a trailing cold front through the W Piedmont of NC. As
this system pushes east, the rain will exit, soon after 11z at RDU,
13z at RWI, and 15z at FAY. Meanwhile, with the departing surface
low strengthening off the VA coast, a backdoor cold front will drop
S into NC, starting in the N 07z-09z and progressing S through 19z-
21z. Low clouds will spread in from the N behind the front, low-end
MVFR cigs and vsbys much of the time but with periods of IFR cigs.
Gradual improvement to VFR is possible from mid afternoon through
early evening as cigs climb above 3000 ft AGL, however confidence in
this occurrence and timing is low, and central NC terminals may see
periodic bkn MVFR cigs lasting through 06z, with bkn clouds varying
between 3000 ft and 3500 ft AGL. Surface winds will be light and
variable until backdoor front passage, when winds from the NNE or NE
at 12-16 kts with frequent gusts to 20-28 kts are expected, lasting
from the predawn hours through early this evening, when gusts will
die down but sustained winds will hold at 8-12 kts from the NNE.

Looking beyond 06z Mon, MVFR cigs will remain possible through
tonight and into Mon morning, with a NNE breeze persisting. VFR
conditions should then dominate through mid week, although as a
couple of upper level disturbances cross the region, a few showers
will be possible mainly NW (INT/GSO) Tue, with a better chance
Wed/Wed evening areawide as a stronger low and front moves through,
bringing gusty winds late Wed into Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/10/AS
AVIATION...Hartfield