Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

316
FXUS62 KRAH 091800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1255 PM Monday...

* Possible low-end fire concerns during the day on Wednesday.

* High confidence in at least a period of light to moderate rain
  between Saturday evening into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1255 PM Monday...

1) Much warmer Tue into Wed ahead of a cold front. The front is
largely dry and could warrant some low-end fire danger concerns.

2) Widespread light to moderate rain is becoming increasingly
likely late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details, such as
amounts and areal coverage, remain highly uncertain.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1255 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much warmer Tue into Wed ahead of a cold
front. The front is largely dry and could warrant some low-end
fire danger concerns

A warming trend, albeit short, is set to take hold tomorrow and
into Wed ahead of a cold front set to move through the region
midweek. High pressure is currently out over eastern NC.
Tonight, while the high shifts toward and off the coast, return
flow will set in across the region. However, that will not fully
set in until tomorrow. As such, lows tonight will still be cold
but just not as cold as we have been. Most areas in central NC
will hover in the mid to upper 20s.

A welcomed warmup sets up Tue as the high shifts offshore and
return flow set in across the southeast. The airmass building
east with flat ridging spreading in support highs generally into
the 60s tomorrow, which should put us at about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Some places in the southern Piedmont may briefly
touch 70. For reference, the last time we were 60 or above was
Jan 11 for Greensboro and Raleigh, where highs were 64 and 68,
respectively. For Fayetteville, it was Jan 22, where the high
was 63 degrees. As such, these highs will feel great from the
cold we have experienced.

A cold front is slated to move through during the day on Wed.
Much of the guidance brings it through during the late morning
or afternoon, but the cold air does not fully build south until
Wed night. Guidance has continued to trend drier with rain
chances, with little if any measurable QPF, with the best chance
across the south Wed morning. Highs should still manage to get
into the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Depending on how fast
dewpoints lower behind the front, there could be some low-end
fire danger concerns Wed afternoon with a combination of mild
temps, low RH, and brief gusts of 20-25 mph.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread light to moderate rain is becoming
increasingly likely late Sat night through Sun. Forecast
details, such as amounts and areal coverage, remain highly
uncertain.

A mid/upper level trough is forecast to meander off the CA
coast through midweek before kicking eastward on Fri. This wave
is forecast to shift across the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley as a southern stream perturbation on Sat, then into the
Southeast, OH Valley, and Carolinas on Sun. The surface
cyclogenesis pattern seems to be settling in to a Miller-B type
configuration based on the 06- 12z ensemble guidance. This
results in an initially primary surface low over the southern
Plains that shifts into the Ohio Valley before secondary
cyclogenesis develops long the common CAD/maritime boundary east
of the Appalachians on Sun. Partial thicknesses suggest an
onset of mixed p-type can not be ruled out, but given the strong
horizontal-thermal advection (HTA) pattern, this is becoming
increasingly unlikely and would be more typical of weak HTA
patterns.

A quasi-stationary boundary draped across the Southeast on Sat
will provide a focus for favorable ascent on its poleward side
as strengthening WAA and moist-isentropic ascent develop over
the Carolinas, deepest and strongest over the NC Piedmont. This
will likely result in widespread light to moderate rainfall as
early as Sat evening, but more likely Sat night into Sun. The
evolution of mesoscale details is fairly uncertain at this time
range and results in a wide range in potential rainfall amounts
(as much as 1" differences within the most likely range between
the 25th-75th percentiles). This results in a low confidence
rainfall forecast. At the very least, a period of beneficial
rainfall appears likely for the Piedmont to help relieve some of
the worsening drought conditions.

Alternate scenario: There is a signal in the deterministic guidance
that the steady rain may lift northward into VA by Sun
afternoon and result in a lull in the light/moderate rain before
a line of decaying moderate, to perhaps heavy, band of rain and
elevated convection shifts across the area ahead of the cold
front. This scenario would cut into the period of beneficial
soaking rain and severely cut into rainfall amounts with just
isolated pockets of > 1 inch, and dependent on the track of the
southern stream trough, perhaps only occurring northwest and
south of central NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are likely over the 24 hour TAF period. This
morning`s deck of VFR clouds will continue to thin and move east
across the region at around 8-10kft. Otherwise, light winds
should continue to shift to southerly over the next few hours.
Tonight, an area of fog remains possible in the west and south,
however confidence is still too low to include in the TAFs.

Outlook: Wednesday morning, LLWS is expected ahead of a cold
frontal passage. Rain chances and gusty winds will be possible
with the front Wednesday. Additional rain chances will return
Friday, with more widespread chances and the potential for
flight restrictions over the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/AS
AVIATION...LH