Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS62 KRAH 291732
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
132 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

1) Another morning of patchy fog is expected, although coverage and
intensity is not expected to be as great today as yesterday. Friday
will likely be the warmest out of the next seven days.

2) Very light, non-accumulating rain, is possible Sun night into
Mon, but better chance for accumulating rainfall remains in the
mid/late next week period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another morning of patchy fog is expected, although
coverage and intensity is not expected to be as great today as
yesterday. Friday will likely be the warmest out of the next seven
days.

Some patchy fog is expected to develop again. However, compared to
yesterday, when an area of low clouds moved from the Coastal Plain
into the central portion of the state along with reduced
visibilities, there have been passing mid level clouds through much
of the night. These mid level clouds should help to limit the
overall coverage of fog that occurs in the next few hours. With
drier air moving into the region, any clouds/fog that do develop
around sunrise should clear out more quickly, with mostly sunny
skies by the afternoon.

Normal high temperatures are around 70 degrees this time of year,
and highs will run slightly above normal, with all locations
expected to be in the 70s. Friday appears likely to be the warmest
day out of the next seven, with highs between 78 and 83 degrees. A
cold front moving through Friday night should bring highs back into
the 60s and 70s for Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Very light, non-accumulating rain, is possible Sun
night into Mon, but better chance for accumulating rainfall remains
in the mid/late next week period.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for the Sun
night into Mon timeframe. Although, confidence is medium-high on
increasing widespread cloud cover with some very light rain possible
falling out of mid-level cloud bases. Moisture associated with
Tropical Cyclone Vance is expected to lift through southwest Mexico
and into the Four Corners and Southern Plains region Fri before
shifting eastward into the Southeast Sat into Sun and perhaps
Carolinas Sun night into Mon. The mid/upper-lvl wave, which will be
more pronounced as it shifts through the Southern Plains, will shear
out substantially as it approaches the Southeast and Carolinas, with
mostly convectively modified waves providing deeper forcing
accompanying the sharp, fast-moving upper trough. Any falling precip
will have to overcome drier mid/low-lvl air from a reinforcing dry
cold front that will provide renewed high pressure persisting over
the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas this weekend. The GFS and its
ensemble suite continues to come in line with most other guidance as
it shunts the better QPF signal farther south with only light
accumulations in NC Sun night into Tues night.

The better signal for measurable rainfall continues to be sometime
within the Wed into Fri night timeframe as a strong mid/upper low
shifts from the West Coast on Sun into the Central Plains and MS
Valley into the mid-week timeframe. How and when this feature will
develop is understandably uncertain as the driving features will not
phase until this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

TAF Period: Despite little change in airmass, fog potential looks
less favorable in model guidance for tonight.  Moisture appears to
be more confined to coastal areas, so have elected to just include
some MVFR at RWI and RDU via TEMPO.  However, persistence forecasts
would suggest leaning toward lower vsbys as an alternative scenario.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will bring a more steady northeast
wind Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions are forecast
through at least Sunday, with a slight chance of a shower on Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...BS