Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

187
FXUS62 KRAH 161818
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

1)  Potential for hazardous heat appears likely on Thursday along
the US-1 corridor and east.

2) Greatest chances for showers occurs on Thursday night and Friday
with a cold front, along with a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe
thunderstorm risk on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Potential for hazardous heat appears likely on
Thursday along the US-1 corridor and east.

The warmest day in the next seven days appears likely to be on
Thursday, as strong southwesterly flow develops in advance of a cold
front moving into the region from the Ohio Valley. While there is
still the potential for some isolated thunderstorms to develop in
the warm sector, computer models have been very consistent over the
last few days of predicting high temperatures between 95 and 100
degrees, along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s raising heat
index values between 95 in the Triad and 105 along the I-95
corridor. Outside of the Triad, HeatRisk highlights that widespread
Major category is likely for the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and
Coastal Plain, indicating that not only is this heat particularly
unusual, it is correlated with high levels of heat illnesses as
noted by historical CDC heat-health data, and this heat could
produce health impacts on all populations, especially those without
adequate hydration and cooling.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Greatest chances for showers occurs on Thursday
night and Friday with a cold front, along with a marginal (level 1
of 5) severe thunderstorm risk on Thursday.

Low pressure will track from Lake Huron Thursday northeast to Quebec
on Friday and near the Atlantic Maritimes on Saturday. Meanwhile,
the associated cold front will extend from Buffalo south to
Pittsburgh and west in Missouri Thursday morning, and by Friday
morning will extend from Boston south to Raleigh and southwest into
Texas, eventually falling along the Atlantic shoreline Saturday
morning. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight (level 2 of 5)
risk extending from southwest Connecticut into northern Tennessee,
with a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk encompassing a large area from
Norfolk down into Florida Panhandle and much of the Gulf Coast. The
higher risk area remains to the north of central North Carolina and
is aligned with the greatest wind shear values in proximity to the
front during the daytime hours. There will be plenty of instability
in the warm sector on Thursday, especially considering the heat
mentioned in the previous key message, but it does not appear that
there will be organized thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The timing
of the front`s arrival will not be conducive for a high severe
weather threat. The entire forecast area is under a marginal (level
1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Friday, and this is primarily
driven by the moisture that will move northeast with Potential
Tropical Cyclone 1, currently over southeastern Texas and which is
expected to move northeast. However, the severe and excessive
rainfall threats remain low confidence considering the uncertainty
of the timing with both the frontal passage and the tropical
moisture. The tropical moisture may help to enhance rainfall rates,
but this system does not appear likely to do much to ease the long
term drought concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Multi-layered, VFR cloud bases this afternoon will yield to MVFR
ones at FAY Wed morning, in association with the passage of a warm
front and increasingly-moist, sswly low-level flow. A several hour
period of showers and isolated storms will also accompany those
mostly MVFR cloud bases and probable ceilings at FAY. While that
convection will probably not reach as far north as Piedmont sites
and RWI, a short period of scattered to briefly broken MVFR cloud
bases will be possible at both RDU and RWI Wed morning.

Outlook: Marginal low-level wind shear and MVFR stratus will be
possible Thu morning, followed by strong and gusty swly surface
winds and scattered convection with daytime heating Thu afternoon-
evening. MVFR ceilings may redevelop Fri morning and be accompanied
a continued chance of convection ahead of a passing cold front
through the day Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015  KFAY: 102/1944


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 77/2025  KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970  KRDU: 73/2025  KFAY: 77/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...MWS