Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

241
FXUS62 KRAH 210658
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
158 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

* Increasing chances for light rain in most areas of central NC
  today

* High confidence in widespread rain late tonight through midday
  Sun, with perhaps a brief changeover to snow in our far NE
  zones Sun evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

1) Widespread very light to light rain is expected through early
afternoon with localized areas of moderate rain possible.

2) Widespread rain late tonight into midday Sunday, followed by
a brief changeover to some snow in the far NE sections of
central NC early Sunday evening.

3) Strong and gusty winds Sunday evening and Monday morning through
Monday afternoon between 30 and 45 mph.

4) Temperatures look to rise above normal on Wednesday, until a
frontal system late week looks to drop temperatures back to
near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Widespread very light to light rain is expected
through early afternoon with localized areas of moderate rain
possible.

A dryline is slowly working its way southeastward through the
forecast area with surface dew points in the 20s to 30s in its wake
and 50s to 60s to its east. This will prime the forecast area to
develop an insitu CAD as light to moderate rain diabatically cools
the boundary layer. Primary forcing mechanism will be a shallow
sloping boundary over NC with the primary surface baroclinic
boundary draped across southeast TX, through the Southeast, and off
the SC coast. Moderate moist-isentropic ascent along the 295-305K
surface (roughly 800-650mb layer) will promote scattered to
widespread light rain. The HRRR and the REFS members have thus far
been handling the ongoing rain over the TN Valley the best and would
result in trace amounts to 0.2" in most locations. Localized
moderate precipitation with locally enhanced rain-rates from
perturbations within the moist west-southwesterly flow aloft may
result in a narrow corridor of up to 0.5".

High temperatures today will have a high bust potential with a 10-15
degree range between the 10-90th percentile from the latest run of
the blend of models. Latest official forecast ranges from mid 50s to
mid 60s (NE to south and west).


KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread rain late tonight into midday
Sunday, followed by a brief changeover to some snow in the far
NE sections of central NC early Sunday evening.

A vigorous storm system is set to develop tonight through Sun and
bring unsettled weather to the region. A pair of shortwaves seen on
water vapor imagery, one presently over MT and another over western
KS, will merge and deepen to a vigorous upper-low over the lower OH
valley and southern Mid-Atlantic region Sun into Sun night, before
rapidly deepening further offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Mon morning
and afternoon. At the surface, model and ensemble/AI guidance are in
pretty good agreement that a surface low will develop along the
stalled frontal zone off the NC coast Sun morning and rapidly deepen
Sun night into Monday to perhaps sub-970 mb.

Impressive height falls and DPVA along and ahead of the deepening
trough will aid widespread rain starting mainly late tonight into
about mid/late morning to early afternoon Sun. Isentropic ascent and
some divergence with a jet streak in VA should allow for
precipitation to blossom late tonight, especially after midnight. As
the upper low digs into SW VA and western NC Sun afternoon, a dry
slot will overspread most of central NC. As such, rain may come to
an end briefly by the mid to late morning hours, earliest across the
west. However, once the upper-low tracks further ESE along the VA/NC
border early Sun evening, a wrap-around deformation band is expected
to develop for areas mainly along and east of the Triangle, roughly
between 2 and 8 pm. The high-res HREF depicts this quite well based
on the synoptic pattern. Expected precipitation amounts based on
high-res and ensemble guidance ranges from 0.3 to 0.6 inches via the
median from west to east, to upwards of 0.75 inches in the NE
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. High end amounts are up to an
inch, again highest in our NE counties, with low-end amounts in our
western zones of 0.2 to 0.4 inches of liquid.

As the deformation band develops over our NE zones, there will be a
narrow, roughly 3-5 hour window, when precipitation will overlap
with strong cold advection. At this time, temperature profiles in
our NE zones will support a period of sloppy wet snow on the tail
end of the event, mainly between 3 and 7 pm. Given the vigorous
nature to the system, it is not out of the realm of possibility that
a light accumulation of snow could occur by Sunday evening before
exiting. Wet bulb temperatures appear to only get into the middle
30s, but precip rates could overcome this to favor a light
accumulation mainly on elevated/grassy surfaces. The favored area
for this would be Norlina to Enfield to Scotland Neck and NE to
Halifax and Roanoke Rapids. The LREF probabilities of a dusting is
50-60 percent in this region and about 30-40 percent for a half inch
of snow. Again, marginal wet-bulb temps and warm ground would limit
impacts, but certainly reduced visibilities are possible. All
precipitation comes to an end Sun night as lows tumble into the
upper 20s to around 30 degrees.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Strong and gusty winds Sunday evening and
Monday morning through Monday afternoon between 30 and 45 mph

As the surface low deepens off the coast Sunday night and Monday,
strong cold advection will combine with a tightened pressure
gradient and strong winds in the low-levels of 30-50 kt. WNW winds
Sun evening will be quite brisk between 35 and 45 mph, strongest
during the mid to late evening hours. These gusts could briefly
reach Wind Advisory criteria for portions of the area. Winds may
slack off a tad overnight into Mon morning, but pick back up again
Mon afternoon as the flow continues to remain elevated. Gusts on Mon
could range from 25-35 mph, before tapering off Monday night as cold
high pressure settles into the region. Our highs Mon and Tue will be
some 10-12 degrees below normal in the 40s, with lows Mon night well
into the 20s for most areas. Depending on how much rain falls, the
gusty winds, low RH dipping into the upper 20s could favor a slight
fire danger Mon afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Temperatures look to rise above normal on
Wednesday, until a frontal system late week looks to drop
temperatures back to near normal.

Temperatures are expected to jump back above normal on Wednesday as
surface high pressure shifts off the southeast coast, allowing
surface winds to shift to southerly over central NC. This should
allow maximum temperatures to jump back into the mid 50s to low 60s
Wednesday afternoon and increase further on Thursday into the low to
upper 60s. This is up to 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. The next chance for rain will be Thursday into Friday as a
cold front looks to move through the region. Continued high model
spread leads to low confidence in the timing of rain and rainfall
totals. However, ensemble guidance is showing overall low rainfall
totals, with the 50th percentile of the GEFS showing less than 0.1
inch of rain over the region and the European ensemble showing
between 0.25-0.5 inch of rain. Regardless of rain amounts, the front
looks to bring temperatures back near or slightly above normal on
Friday as high pressure starts to build back in over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Saturday...

A dryline is slowly settling southeastward across the forecast area
and is resulting in patchy mist/fog ahead of the front where dew
points are still in the mid 50s to low 60s. With dew points slowly
dropping over the past hour at FAY/RWI, any flight restrictions from
mist/fog appears unlikely. Mid-level cloud layer and virga will
overspread the area from 06-10z, isolated pockets of moderate rain
may result in a brief vsby reduction at INT/GSO during this time,
but confidence in direct terminal impacts is low. Better chance for
vsby reduction within more scattered to widespread light/moderate
rain will be after 10z until around 19z from west to east across
central NC. After the rain ceases, some guidance is showing the
development of IFR/MVFR cigs where > 0.2" of rain falls, but
confidence in this is too low at this time.

Outlook: Adverse aviation condition will become increasingly likely
after 00z Sun as an area of low pressure tracks south of the area.
Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs and light to moderate rain will overspread
the area from around midnight (05z Sun) through Sun evening. A
return to VFR is expected from west to east Sun afternoon through
the late evening. As clouds clear, windy northwest winds are
expected Sun afternoon/evening, and again on Mon when light to
moderate low-level turbulence is likely. VFR conditions are likely
through Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/AK/LH
AVIATION...AS