Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS62 KRAH 110624
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 AM Wednesday...

* Highs today continue trend upward setting additional records.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 AM Wednesday...

1) Record warmth again today with an air mass more typical of early
July.

2) A Strong cold front brings showers Thursday, with a low-end
threat for strong to severe storms in our southeast counties.

3) Another strong cold front moving through the region Sunday night
and Monday may bring another low-end severe weather threat, mainly
in our southeast. Well below normal temperatures are possible next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Record warmth again today with an air mass more
typical of early July.

The earliest 90 degree high for so early in the season is possible
at Raleigh (current earliest 90 degree high record is March 12, 1990).

The big weather story around central NC continues to revolve around
record temperatures. Low level thicknesses are still expected to
reach around 1410m, which is more typical of early July.

Some increase in high cloudiness in the afternoon may keep
temperatures down a degree or two from current projections in the
mid 80s NW and upper 80s to near 90 from Fayetteville to Raleigh.

These temperatures are likely to break additional warm records (see
climate section).

SW winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph this
afternoon. Peak winds around 30 are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Strong cold front brings showers Thursday, with
a low-end threat for strong to severe storms in our southeast
counties.

Guidance continues to be in good agreement that a strong cold front
will move through during the day on Thursday. Similar to the prior
forecast, much of the rain/showers will occur from early Thu morning
into early Thu afternoon. Because the front is pushing through in
the morning hours, instability continues to be a limiting factor for
strong storm potential. SPC continues to mention limited heating and
poor lapse rates precluding strong destabilization. If stronger
heating were to be realized, it would be favored over the eastern
Sandhills to the Coastal Plain, where some AI convective models
continue to indicate a low-end threat. Rainfall amounts look similar
to what we have been discussing prior, with a quarter to one half
inch of rain, with the low-end around a tenth to two tenths of an
inch. Behind the front, some gusts from the NW may range from 25-30
mph in the afternoon to early evening, but should dissipate Thu
evening/night as cool high pressure builds in from the west.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Another strong cold front moving through the region
Sunday night and Monday may bring another low-end severe weather
threat, mainly in our southeast. Well below normal temperatures are
possible next week.

After the passage of the cold front on Thursday, temperatures will
drop closer to normal on Friday, before increasing back to around 10-
15 degrees above normal by Sunday. The next best chance of rain and
possible embedded storms will be Sunday night into Monday. LREF
cluster analysis suggests that pre-frontal rain may start as early
as late Sunday afternoon, with the rain with the front occurring
later Sunday and overnight. In the pre-frontal rain Sunday
afternoon, a few storms could be stronger as temperatures are
expected to be in the 70s, with dewpoints approaching 60. Cluster
analysis is also showing a few different solutions for the timing of
the frontal passage, with 1 of 4 clusters showing the front moving
through Monday afternoon instead of Monday morning. If this were to
occur, severe chances would be larger on Monday as there will be
more instability with additional daytime heating. However, at this
time, most of the model solutions are showing an earlier frontal
passage, lessening the chances for stronger storms. Also, if the
cold air is able to get in faster and precipitation is slow to exit,
a brief period of light snow may be possible Monday night. However,
only 1 of 4 clusters show 20% of at least 0.1 inch of snow, meaning
that this is not likely at this time.


The front is expected to drop temperatures by around 20 degrees,
with lows dropping near to below freezing in the northwest on Monday
night and then everywhere Tuesday night. Highs also look like they
may only rise into the 40s to low 50s Tuesday afternoon. This would
be about 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through
much of the 24 hour TAF period. Light SW winds tonight will increase
Wednesday, gusting up to 25-30 kts in the afternoon.

Outlook: A 40-50 kt SW low-level jet may bring low-level wind shear
conditions on Wednesday night. This may be offset by mixing that
could bring SSW surface winds up again after sunset to 12-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kt. A strong cold front will bring a period showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms Thursday morning into the afternoon
east. Sub-VFR conditions and gusty/shifting winds are expected
Thursday. VFR returns Fri into Sat. Increasing moisture return may
bring a return to sub-VFR conditions and rain chances on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Kren/Helock
AVIATION...PWB/Danco
CLIMATE...RAH