Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

808
FXUS62 KRAH 232337
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
737 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific high pressure will extend across the Southeast ahead of a
weak frontal wave that will track across the Carolinas tonight.
Canadian high pressure will follow and extend throughout the eastern
US through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...

* Frost Advisory in effect for Fri morning for most of the Piedmont,
  the northern Coastal Plain, and the northern Sandhills of NC

At the base of a mid/upr-level cyclone whose mean center will lift
nnewd across QC, a series of strongly-sheared shortwave
perturbations, including one now evident in GOES-E WV data over WV
and srn OH, will maintain a tight height and temperature gradient
(including 11C at 500 mb across ~250 miles between adjacent
observation sites at ILN and BNA this morning) along their path from
the upr Great Lakes to the srn Middle Atlantic coast. An
accompanying zone of strong mid-level Fgen evident in SPC
mesoanalysis data over wrn VA/NC, and a related area of altocumulus
there in GOES-E Visible data, will spread east across cntl NC this
evening.

At the surface and in the low-levels, a weak (clipper-type) frontal
wave now over Middle TN will reform as a lee low over the NC srn
Piedmont this evening and track ewd across srn and sern NC tonight.
A preceding, strong low-level WAA regime, evident as strongly
veering wind profiles in VWP data centered over the srn Appalachians
(from KMRX to KGSP and TCLT), will overspread cntl NC early tonight.
Following the passage of the frontal wave, a reinforcing high of
Canadian origin will build from the mid MS Valley esewd to the srn
Middle Atlantic through early Fri.

Related to the aforementioned WAA regime, the models indicate a zone
of strong omega centered around 850 mb will migrate across cntl NC
this evening; and it will likely cause the preceding area of
altocumulus to expand/blossom directly over cntl NC early tonight,
probably accompanied by patchy virga, then exit the Coastal Plain by
~09Z. Although delayed early in the night by the aforementioned
altocumulus, and also CAA and nwly stirring, overnight-morning clear
and calm or nearly so will favor a period of strong radiational
cooling of the incoming Canadian high and airmass. Associated low
temperatures will likely range --below even the coldest, usually
superior statistical guidance values-- in the lwr-mid 30s across the
Advisory area (away from milder urban areas) to around 40 or so in
the ern Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. In fact, there were reports
of patchy frost deep in the Sandhills and cntl Coastal Plain this
past morning, when observed temperatures throughout cntl NC were up
to a few degrees colder than the coldest model guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

* Seasonably cool Fri, then colder and with increasingly-widespread
  frost, Fri night

The mid/upr-level cyclone initially over QC will fill and lift out,
while its associated longwave trough axis over the ern US will do
the same. Rising heights will result over cntl NC.

At the surface, a Canadian high will build ewd and become centered
over the cntl Appalachians, while extending swd across the Carolinas
and GA. Cooler and lighter than recent days, nnwly flow will result
over cntl NC Fri, followed by lighter yet, to calm, Fri night. Aside
from mainly thin high-level cloudiness, some of which may briefly
become orographically-enhanced into the nw Piedmont early in the
day, skies will be mainly clear. High temperatures should be in the
60s Fri, followed by probably the coldest night of this stretch in
the 30s area-wide. Another Frost Advisory, and probably over a
larger area, will likely be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

As of Saturday morning, high pressure should be centered over West
Virginia with a ridge extending northwest into Canada. The center of
the high will shift into New York by Sunday and into Quebec Monday.
As the high retreats, low pressure will move in from the Plains. The
deterministic/ensemble European remains a wetter and stronger
solution with the system for the beginning of next week than the
deterministic/ensemble GFS, although the GFS is trending in the
direction of the European. The current forecast calls for a 20-40%
chance of rain through this period, but the chance will likely
increase, especially if the 00Z ECMWF coastal low solution develops.
While both model families have an upper low dissipating over the
central Plains Monday, there are differences in where the next upper
low will develop - the ECMWF is quicker and closer to the coast than
the GFS, which is likely the reason the ECMWF shows the stronger
coastal low.

While temperatures will be slightly below normal over the weekend -
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, temperatures will be
noticeably cold next week - the Triad may not reach 60 degrees for
much of next week. In addition, if the cold-air damming wedge with
the high manages to hold over the region, the current NBM highs in
the forecast will be too warm and would need to come down by 3-5
degrees across all locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 736 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Tonight,
an area of scattered to broken altocumulus around 8-9kft will
continue to move through the area. Some light virga looks to be
possible with these clouds, but should evaporate before reaching the
ground. Friday afternoon, northwesterly winds may occasionally gust
up to 15kts.

Outlook: Canadian high pressure will favor a prolonged period of VFR
conditions in cntl NC through the weekend. Rain and flight
restrictions will accompany multiple waves of coastal low pressure
forecast to develop and track offshore the South and Middle Atlantic
coasts next week, with some such conditions possible in cntl NC as
early as Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 PM Thursday...

Despite much lighter and non-gusty wind than recent days expected on
Fri, NCFS has requested another day of Increased Fire Danger owing
to continued very dry conditions and forecast minimum RH mostly
between 20 and 25%

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>041-073>076.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...LH/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS