Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

132
FXUS62 KRAH 280528
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
125 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased confidence in the threat of severe weather tomorrow,
  Tuesday, July 28.

* Updated Aviation discussion through Tuesday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 335 PM Monday...

1) Isolated storms across eastern NC possible this
afternoon/evening.

2) A slight risk (2 of 5) of severe weather on Tuesday. The main
hazard will be damaging winds, with large hail and a tornado or two
also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated storms across eastern NC possible this
afternoon/evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of Eastern NC
this afternoon, mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor, as
daytime heating interacts with the sea breeze and a lingering
boundary. Latest ensemble guidance indicates storms will develop
along the sea breeze with limited inland progression into the
Coastal Plain, though a few isolated strong storms capable of gusty
winds cannot be ruled out. Storm activity will rapidly diminish
after sunset. Overnight, areas that received rainfall may see low
stratus clouds and patchy fog develop where winds become light and
calm.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A slight risk (2 of 5) of severe weather on
Tuesday. The main hazard will be damaging winds, with large hail and
a tornado or two also possible.

Details: Large-scale ascent associated with an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough and an attendant cold front will provide sufficient
forcing for convective initiation Tuesday afternoon, with storms
becoming more widespread through the evening. Ahead of the front,
southerly winds will bring warm and moist air to the region,
supporting MUCAPE of roughly 1500-3000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. This
will combine with 40-50 kts of 0-8 km shear to support initially
supercells with a localized wind and hail threat. Storm interactions
in the late afternoon and evening should then favor clustered
convection and bowing segments, with the primary hazard being a
damaging wind threat. A brief tornado or two will also be possible
as the low-level jet strengthens and increases low-level shear and
helicity from the Triangle eastward. The threat of flooding should
be a lesser threat due to quicker storm propagations expected. High
rain rates within the strongest storms may produce localized
flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

Timing: Storms look to start forming and approach the region in the
early afternoon, with storms entering the western Piedmont around 2
to 4 PM before progressing eastward across the region. The most
likely timing for the severe weather threat currently appears to be
between 4 and 10 PM, potentially lasting until midnight.

What could diminish the threat: While confidence is increasing in
the threat of severe weather, the primary forecast uncertainty
remains how upstream convection currently located in the Great Lakes
region will evolve overnight and into tomorrow. If rain/cloud cover
is able to persist over the mountains into the morning hours more
than currently expected, the destabilization in the Carolinas would
be reduced tomorrow afternoon, leading to a lesser severe threat.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

TAF period: The visibility at RWI has already dropped as of 05Z, and
it appears that there will also be the potential for some BR at FAY
as well. The odds of RWI dropping to IFR conditions are much higher
than FAY. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere. After sunrise, it
appears that an area of showers/thunderstorms currently near the
OH/MI border will have dropped southeast overnight, providing
additional cloud cover if not some showers with its decay as it
approaches central North Carolina. While this will bring a chance of
showers, primarily to INT/GSO, the main threat for precipitation
will come later in the afternoon ahead of the synoptic cold front
crossing the region. Have maintained TEMPO groups (PROB30 at FAY)
for TSRA, with some slight adjustments for timing when thunderstorms
are most likely at each terminal as well as adding prevailing groups
for showers at FAY/RWI. Showers/storms will end from northwest to
southeast through the evening, likely ending around 06Z at FAY.

Outlook: While skies will clear behind the cold front, the wind
should remain strong enough to allow mixing to continue and minimize
the chance for restrictions behind the front late Tuesday night. The
next chance of showers/storms should not be until Saturday, and most
probably at INT/GSO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/LH
AVIATION...Green