Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

097
FXUS62 KRAH 071101
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A Frost Advisory may be needed tonight with lows over the Piedmont
  and northern Coastal Plain in the low to middle 30s.

* Patchy ground fog this morning, especially near bodies of water,
  should disperse after sunrise.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1232 AM Saturday...

1) Areas of frost will be possible Sunday morning.

2) A dry stretch of weather well into the middle of next week as
temperatures gradually moderate. A pattern shift looks to take hold
late next week, though the details are still uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1232 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of frost will be possible Sunday morning.

Chilly high pressure over the Mid MS valley today will migrate into
the TN valley tonight. While not in the most favorable position to
support strong radiational cooling, winds should still go calm after
sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes, from NW wind gusts of 15-20
mph this afternoon to light WNW overnight. The NBM probabilities for
36 degrees or lower range from 60-90 percent across the central and
northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain. This roughly
covers an area along and north of US-64, though excluding most of
the Triad and Triangle urban centers due to the urban heat island.
Regardless, a Frost Advisory may be needed tonight into Sunday
morning over these areas as lows dip into the low to middle 30s,
except upper 30s to around 40 in urban areas and the Sandhills to
southern Coastal Plain. After collaborating with neighboring WFOs,
we decided to let the day shift take a closer look before issuing
any products.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry stretch of weather well into the middle of
next week as temperatures gradually moderate. A pattern shift looks
to take hold late next week, though the details are still uncertain.

Northwest flow at mid-levels this weekend will support near to
slightly below normal temperatures in the low to middle 60s.
Guidance shows quasi-zonal flow taking over early to middle of next
week, which should allow for moderating temperatures ranging from
the upper 60s to low 70s. This stretch of weather is going to be dry
with limited moisture return and a lack of systems tracking through
the region.

The period from Thursday into Saturday of next week is still highly
uncertain, however is starting to indicate a prominent pattern
shift. Much of the guidance is in decent agreement that as ridging
develops across the western US mid to late week, this allows for
deep troughing to set up over the eastern US. The result is likely a
Continental Polar airmass, which could bring our true taste of late
fall. The 540-dm thickness line drops in some solutions as far south
as GA and 850-mb temperatures drop below freezing, supportive of a
widespread freeze at some point next weekend. The also interesting
aspect to the pattern is that some ensemble cluster solutions,
including some AI members, show an area of low pressure tracking
from the TN valley to off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday into
Saturday. Where that tracks is highly uncertain at this point, but
could bring rain to the region and possible light snow to the
Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions. Reduced ceilings and
visibilities from earlier in the night have scattered out, and
should not be an issue at local terminals. The wind will pick up a
bit out of the north today, but don`t think that any gusts will be
high enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs. Additional high clouds
will move in overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the
TAF outlook period. A couple reinforcing cold fronts will bring wind
shifts and perhaps some gusty winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...Green/LH