Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

389
FXUS62 KRAH 101429
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1025 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Addition of a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk to
  the Triad late this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1025 AM Wednesday...

1) Conditional threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening
across northern and western counties.

2) Above normal temperatures return today, with unusual and
potentially dangerous heat Thu/Fri. The heat may abate a bit Sat,
but temps will stay well above normal through Sun.

3) Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will continue each day
Friday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1025 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Conditional threat of severe weather this afternoon
and evening across northern and western counties.

Looking upstream, the current focus is on a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving southeast across southern West Virginia. This
has prompted a few severe thunderstorm warnings and flash flood
warnings in West Virginia; so far the only reports that have come in
were of some high water around Charleston. The latest runs of the
HRRR show that this line of thunderstorms has more of an eastward
component than a southward component, and the line is likely to
remain to the north of our area and stay in Virginia. However, the
00Z HREF has a few members, particularly the ARW and FV3 members,
that show the MCS with more of a southerly component, bringing this
line into the Triad by 2-4pm. Since the model runs started earlier,
they may not have as good of a handle as to the future track of the
thunderstorms. While there are currently widespread high clouds
across the area, some clearing has begun to occur, temperatures in
many locations have already risen into the low 80s, and dewpoints
have risen into the low 70s, more moist than in days past. So while
there is still reduced confidence as to whether severe weather will
occur, the soupy airmass may allow for some stronger thunderstorms
to develop. If strong to severe thunderstorms do occur, strong winds
would be the primary threat, generally between 2 and 10pm.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures return today, with
unusual and potentially dangerous heat Thu/Fri. The heat may abate a
bit Sat, but temps will stay well above normal through Sun.

Surface high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast early this
morning will continue to drift toward Bermuda today, allowing warm
and humid air to spread into central NC. After mild readings
Tuesday, confidence is high that temperatures will return to above
normal values today with thicknesses a few m above normal. But the
presence of considerable debris clouds from upstream convection,
along with scattered late-day storms of our own over the Piedmont
prompted in part by a baggy mid level shortwave trough crossing the
region, should help curb insolation and keep our highs in the upper
80s to mid 90s. As thicknesses rebound to 10-20 m above normal
Thu/Fri, with mid level ridging building behind the trough passage,
highs are likely to be in the mid 90s to around 100, hottest Fri.
These highs Thu/Fri may approach or exceed records, and given the
added heat stress from warm overnight lows mostly in the 70s, the
risk of heat illnesses will increase, and a heat advisory or other
heat products may be needed. The NWS experimental probabilistic Heat
Risk shows a 70-95% chance of reaching the Major category (level 3
of 4) over almost all of central NC Thu/Fri, indicating that
significant adverse health impacts are possible for all populations
without adequate cooling or hydration, and heat illnesses may
develop suddenly for those working or exercising outdoors during the
hottest part of the day. Conditions could be especially dangerous
Fri, when an area from the Triangle south to Fayetteville has a 50%
chance of Extreme values (level 4 of 4) of Heat Risk. Temps are
expected to be slightly lower Sat onward by a category or so as the
mid level ridge begins to weaken with a dip in the westerlies into
the Ohio Valley, increasing the chance that we`ll see greater
coverage of mid and high clouds from upstream convection complexes,
along with a higher chance of in situ afternoon showers and storms.
But it will still be quite warm and humid, and the heat stress will
remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will
continue each day through early next week.

There will be almost daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening
pulse-type thunderstorms Friday through early next week. A weakening
cold front will move south through much of our region late Friday
night and Saturday, stalling over southeastern NC over the weekend.
The next cold front will approach by early next week. The highest
probability of showers/storms will most likely be late Friday into
Saturday, then again early next week. QPF by the models remains near
normal for the period which would be around 1 to 1.25 inch totals
for the Friday through Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

MVFR cigs have formed across much of central NC, along with isolated
pockets of IFR cigs over the central Piedmont and Sandhills. These
areas of MVFR cigs are expected to persist through mid morning,
particular at RDU/FAY/INT/GSO, with a much lower chance at RWI.
After 14z, these lower clouds should lift and VFR conditions should
then dominate through at least early to mid afternoon. Scattered
showers and storms are expected to move into the N Piedmont after
17z, affecting INT/GSO 18z-23z and RDU 19z-01z with a chance for
brief downpours and enhanced wind gusts. There will be a lower
chance for showers or storms at RWI/FAY, so will continue to omit
the mention of convection for now there, but will monitor. After
01z, expect largely mid level clouds to continue through the
overnight hours. Surface winds will be from the SSW or SW, under 10
kts until 13z and after 02z tonight, but otherwise around 9-14 kts
with sporadic gusts to 15-20 kts during the day.

Looking beyond 12z Thu, VFR conditions are expected for much of the
time through the weekend, however daytime scattered showers/storms
will remain possible areawide each day, which may cause brief sub-
VFR cigs/vsbys in downpours and brief gusty winds. And areas of sub-
VFR conditions in stratus and fog are possible early each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 10: KFAY: 99/2008

June 11: KGSO: 98/1914   KRDU: 100/1914   KFAY: 102/1926

June 12: KRDU: 98/2002   KFAY: 99/1926

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002   KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926   KRDU: 97/1944   KFAY: 100/2022

June 15: KRDU: 99/2015   KFAY: 101/2015


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 10: KGSO: 75/1981   KRDU: 76/2020

June 11: KGSO: 74/2008   KRDU: 74/2008   KFAY: 77/1981

June 12: KGSO: 72/1998   KRDU: 75/1986   KFAY: 76/2016

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015   KRDU: 75/2025   KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025   KRDU: 79/2022   KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022   KRDU: 78/2025   KFAY: 76/1926

June 16: KGSO: 73/2015   KRDU: 75/2025   KFAY: 77/2015


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Hartfield/Badgett
AVIATION...Hartfield