Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

390
FXUS62 KRAH 191958
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
355 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 355 PM Friday...

1) Shower and storm chances increase on Monday with the next cold
front.

2) Another brief hot spell expected Mon, with highs in the mid 90s
and heat index values around 100F mainly east of Highway 1.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 355 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Shower and storm chances increase on Monday with
the next cold front.

A vigorous shortwave will approach from the TN Valley on Monday,
moving east across central NC on Monday night. Meanwhile the
associated surface low will move across the OH Valley and Mid-
Atlantic, as the trailing cold front crosses our region late Monday
night and Tuesday morning. With warm moist SW flow (winds gusting up
to 20-30 mph), dew points will increase into the upper-60s to lower-
70s on Monday, and there should be adequate sunshine early in the
day for good boundary layer heating and destabilization. So
convection chances are in the likely to categorical range across the
north with chance POPs elsewhere. Mid-level flow looks strongest to
our north but could still reach 30-40 kts. While there is too much
uncertainty to have high confidence in a severe threat, it does
warrant watching, and AI NWP models generally have us in a 30% to as
much as 60% chance of severe weather. The best chance appears to be
across the north. WPC also has our far northern Piedmont in a Day 4
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall, but think any
flood threat would be limited given the ongoing drought. Ensemble
mean QPF is only a tenth to a third of an inch, but locally higher
amounts will be possible. More isolated to scattered diurnal
convection is expected each day for the rest of the workweek.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Another brief hot spell expected Mon, with highs in
the mid 90s and heat index values around 100F mainly east of Highway
1.

A warm and humid SW flow returns ahead of the slowly approaching
cold front Mon. While this period of hot weather will not be
especially profound or long-lasting, much of the southeastern two-
thirds of central NC, including areas along and E of Highway 1, are
expected to see afternoon heat indices peaking around 100F. The NWS
experimental Heat Risk is projected to reach the Major category
(level 3 of 4) from the Triangle region to the S and E, suggesting
an unusual heat and an increased risk of heat illnesses, especially
for vulnerable populations. People needing to work or exercise
outdoor should take precautions and plan for frequent shade (or
AC) and hydration breaks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

The surface low associated with the remnants of former TS Arthur is
currently pushing over the NC Outer Banks and will continue moving
NE and away from our coast through tonight. Patches of broken MVFR
cigs persist at this hour in the far eastern portion of the forecast
area, and this may affect FAY for another few hours before lifting
and breaking up. Also near FAY, there is a slight chance of a few
showers over SE NC this evening (22z-04z), but these should be
sparse and hold largely SSE of FAY. Otherwise, MVFR clouds over the
area are mostly scattered and should stay so as they lift into VFR
range by 22z. VFR conditions are then expected areawide this evening
through Sat, although periods of broken high clouds are likely. No
vsby restrictions expected. Surface winds will be from the WNW or NW
at 8-15 kt with infrequent gusts to 16-25 kts through 23z, then
should hold under 8 kts as they veer gradually through tonight to be
from the N or NE, lasting through Sat.

Looking beyond 18z Sat, VFR conditions are favored to dominate
through Sun night. There`s a small chance for sub-VFR cigs early Mon
morning, followed by a higher chance for sub-VFR conditions and
increased shower/storm chances associated with a slow-moving cold
front Mon through Tue. VFR conditions should return for Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19: KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024

June 25: KFAY: 75/1952

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield