Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS62 KRAH 221735
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Higher confidence of some straight-line wind damage later this
  afternoon and evening tied to storms, mainly in the northern and
  western Piedmont.

* A severe threat has been introduced for portions of the Coastal
  Plain Tue.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 135 PM Monday...

1) There remains a Slight Risk of severe storms into this evening,
with the greatest threat generally across the northwest and northern
Piedmont. A severe risk is also in place for eastern areas Tue.

2) Heat will peak today with heat index values near 100-104F, mainly
along and east of Highway 1. Hot weather possible again next weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 135 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There remains a Slight Risk of severe storms into
this evening, with the greatest threat generally across the
northwest and northern Piedmont. A severe risk is also in place for
eastern areas Tue.

Not much has changed for the severe risk later this afternoon and
evening across central NC. A Slight Risk of severe storms remains in
place for much of the region. The one exception is a Marginal in our
far southern and eastern zones.

A cold front exists to our northwest today, stretching from the OH
valley into the TN valley, in connection with an area of low
pressure moving into the lower OH valley. Although convection may
fire in isolated locations this afternoon, it appears based on
recent guidance that storms will more likely generate along a lee
trough over the mountains and Foothills of NC, then congealing
perhaps along a cold pool as they reach the Piedmont later this
afternoon and evening. Timing appears similar to what was discussed
in the earlier discussion, roughly 4 to 10 PM this evening, although
subtle timing differences remain. Regardless, our confidence is
somewhat higher for some damaging straight-line winds with these
storms for a few reasons. A large area of DCAPE from 1000-1300 J/kg
will be present to enhance downdraft wind gusts. The instability of
1200-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with 25-30 kts of deep shear also
increases our confidence. Similar to our earlier briefing, the main
damaging wind threat should be across the northern and western
Piedmont, mainly US-1 westward. A secondary threat of hail also
exists, primarily with initial storm cores. This hail threat should
quickly transition to mainly wind by the evening hours along a more
defined cold pool. Storms may weaken or dissipate south and east of
the Triangle as energy remains more favored to the west. A Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall is still in place across the NW Piedmont,
but overall flash flood threat appears low outside of the typical
urban and poor drainage areas.

The actual surface cold front will be just to our west by Tue
morning along the southern Appalachians. Upstream convection
currently across the TN valley is tied to an MCV. This MCV is
progged by the guidance to move across our area during the day Tue,
along the leading edge of the cold front. There still remains a bit
of uncertainty on the track of this MCV, with some high-res guidance
tracking it as far north as southeastern VA, while others bring it
across the eastern Piedmont, Triangle, and Coastal Plain of central
NC. Regardless, there does remain a conditional severe risk between
the late morning and afternoon hours of Tue, mainly along and east
of US-1. Right now, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for portions
of the northern Coastal Plain. The front should move through Tue
evening, favoring a drying trend Tue night and Wed.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Heat will peak today with heat index values near
100-104F, mainly along and east of Highway 1. Hot weather is
possible again next weekend into early next week.

With highs in the low to mid 90s and increasing surface dewpoints
into the mid 60s to around 70, heat index values will peak in the
upper 90s to low 100s, mostly from the Triangle south and eastward.
The NWS experimental Heat Risk does reach the Major category (level
3 of 4) in spots around the Triangle down to the Sandhills and S
Coastal Plain, indicating atypically high heat that could lead to an
increased risk of heat illnesses, especially for vulnerable
populations.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a strong ridge is expected to build
across the Deep South toward the East Coast, which results in high
probabilities of above normal temperatures in the CPC 6-10 Outlook.
Models tend to vary on whether the ridge will be center near the MS
River Valley region to further east and closer to the southern
Appalachians, which will strongly influence whether we end up on the
warm or slightly cooler side of a frontal zone in the vicinity of
the East Coast.

&&

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

The main forecast challenge in the near-term will be the development
of scattered showers and storms along a lee trough over western NC.
Timing for storms based on recent high-res guidance is largely in
the 20z to 02z time period. The HREF ensemble indicates the highest
storm probabilities across the northern terminals of GSO, INT, RDU
and perhaps RWI. As storms track southeast, they may weaken or
dissipate in the vicinity of FAY. As such, we left out thunder at
FAY. We did increase the wind gust potential at GSO/INT from the
prior forecast package given a relatively high DCAPE environment,
and some agreement in wind gusts from the 12z HRRR and NAM-NEST.

Convection this evening should weaken tonight and overnight, and
widespread sub-VFR conditions are not expected. However, a remnant
MCV may bring IFR/MVFR stratus mainly across GSO/INT and perhaps
RDU/FAY Tue morning. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop late morning to early afternoon Tue along the
MCV and ahead of a cold front. For now, given the uncertainty, opted
for showers, mainly across the eastern terminals.

Outlook: Storms may linger into early Tue evening across the eastern
terminals. Dry VFR conditions are expected late Tue through Thu. A
return to convective chances is favored Fri-Sat with another frontal
system, as well as the potential for early morning stratus late in
the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022

June 25: KRDU: 100/1952

June 26: KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024

June 25: KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/BLS
AVIATION...Kren