Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

397
FXUS62 KRAH 100959
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

* No significant changes to earlier forecast thoughts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

1) Unseasonably warm temperatures today through Wednesday may meet
or exceed records.

2) Strong cold front brings showers Thursday, with a low-end threat
for strong to severe storms in our southeast counties. After a brief
cooldown Fri, temperatures rebound back above normal this weekend.

3) Another strong system approaching Sunday night and Monday may
bring another low-end severe weather threat, mainly in our
southeast. Well below normal temperatures are possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonably warm temperatures today through
Wednesday may meet or exceed records.

Surface high pressure centered over Bermuda will strengthen and
expand westward across the Carolinas and Southeast today, while
ridging builds aloft, setting the stage for anomalously warm
temperatures today through Wed, when low level thicknesses are
projected to be 55-70 m above normal. Recent guidance, including the
last several iterations of the deterministic NBM and statistical
guidance from the GFS and ECMWF, all have widespread highs in the
80s both today and Wed, with Wed slightly hotter. Lows Tue night
have also been consistently warm, in the upper 50s to mid 60s, close
to the normal highs for this time of year. We`re likely to come very
close to or exceed daily high temp and warm low records at our three
climate sites (GSO/RDU/FAY). This heat will be disrupted by the
incoming cold front late Wed night through Thu.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong cold front brings showers Thursday, with a
low-end threat for strong to severe storms in our southeast
counties. After a brief cooldown Fri, temperatures rebound back
above normal this weekend.

We continue to watch a strong cold front forecast to move through
the region Thursday. Aloft, a pair of shortwaves are forecast to
track east into the Carolinas and SE US during this time, with one
across the OH Valley and another across the Deep South. Model and
ensemble trends appear to be trending a tad slower, with the main
period of shower activity coming early Thu into Thu afternoon, as
opposed to Wed night. The front is expected to move through the
majority of the region by Thu afternoon, after which cool high
pressure settles in by week`s end Fri. Rainfall amounts with the
front range from a tenth to two tenths of an inch on the low end, to
a quarter to one half inch or more on the median/high end. Given the
ongoing drought conditions over the area, this rainfall will be
beneficial. As for the severe threat, that remains conditional, with
perhaps the best chance of any strong storms along our eastern
counties. However, given that the system is coming through during
the morning, instability appears somewhat lacking owing to
cloudiness and modest lapse rates. The NCAR AI convective guidance
shows a low-end severe risk, but the NSSL AI model shows a limited
threat.

We cool off briefly behind the front to close out the work week with
upper 50s to low 60s, but this is short lived as warmer air builds
back in over the latter part of the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Another strong system approaching Sunday night and
Monday may bring another low-end severe weather threat, mainly in
our southeast. Well below normal temperatures are possible next week.

Our next significant chance of rain and possible hazardous weather
will arrive Sun night into Mon with an approaching deep longwave
trough and strong surface cold front, with model ensembles and AI
guidance in good agreement on timing and amplitude. Showers and a
few storms could occur ahead of and with the front, and if there is
sufficient low level moisture recovery to boost prefrontal CAPE, a
few storms could be strong, given the expected wind profile
including a 40-60 kt low level jet and a corresponding long and
broadly looping hodograph. But unfavorable frontal timing and
expected prefrontal scattered showers Sun/Sun night may restrict any
destabilization.

This strong cold front is expected to usher in much below normal
temperatures by Tue and into mid week, with highs potentially only
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through
much of the 24 hour TAF period as weak high pressure and light
southwesterly flow remain in place. There is a slim chance of a
shower this afternoon, mainly in the west and south.

Outlook: Patchy morning fog/stratus is possible Wednesday. Otherwise
VFR will dominate through Wednesday before conditions deteriorate
late Wed night into Thursday with a strong cold front bringing
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, sub-VFR conditions, and
gusty winds. VFR returns Fri into Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Kren
AVIATION...PWB/CA
CLIMATE...RAH