Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS62 KRAH 081000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  The forecast movement of Isaias has stabilized which continues to
   support in widespread showers increasing from the SW by late
   Saturday and continue into early Sunday. A few thunderstorms are
   possible early Sunday. Rapid clearing in the rear of the system
   is expected Sunday.

*  Storm total rainfall amounts have also stabilized and are
   generally still expected in the range of 1 to 2 inches with
   locally higher amounts across the Coastal Plain and tucked
   up against the Blue Ridge foothills into the mountains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

1) Above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

2) The likelihood of unsettled weather and significant rain
associated with Isaias continues to increase for late Saturday
through early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures are expected through
Friday.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through the region tonight
into early Friday. Ahead of the front, weak downslope winds and
rising low-level thicknesses will propel afternoon highs some 6-10
degrees above normal in the lower to middle 80s.

Behind the front, cooler high pressure settles in Friday, gradually
strengthening into Saturday over the Mid-Atlantic region. Northeast
flow tomorrow will promote lower daytime highs but still a few
degrees above average in the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints will be a
touch higher today, but drier air works in behind the front Friday
for another comfortable afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 40s
over most of central NC.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The likelihood of unsettled weather and significant
rain associated with Isaias continues to increase for late Saturday
through early Sunday. Rapid clearing in the rear of the system
Sunday.

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to strengthen today, move ashore on the
northern Gulf Coast Friday night near MS/AL/western FL, with the
system center turning NNW Saturday and Saturday night. This is a bit
west of the previous track forecasts as once the system weakens over
land, it will get pulled into the upper low over the mid-MS valley
region then. Finally, the remnant low should turn NE through the OH
Valley late in the weekend.

The timing of showers for central NC continues to focus on late
Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. We will likely have the
large surface high shift east and off the New England coast Saturday
night and Sunday as the tropical cyclone weakens to a depression and
remnant low. As this occurs, showers are expected over the far
southern and western areas that will likely set up a CAD event by
Saturday night. A coastal front is expected along the SE US, and
this will likely get pulled inland (NW) into SC and far SE NC on
Saturday night. Central NC may have to rely on a secondary low
pressure to form along this boundary for the most significant rain
late Saturday night and Sunday morning. In an interesting twist, the
NW Piedmont may again have a minimum in QPF with this event with the
expected CAD in that region. The ESE upslope flow into the Blue
Ridge should lead to a maximum there. And, the coastal front`s
secondary low should lead to a maximum of QPF over the Coastal Plain
and maybe the eastern Piedmont. Overall, 0.5 to 1 inch storm totals
in the NW Piedmont and 1-2 inches elsewhere.

Showers should taper off and end quickly on Sunday with the dry slot
and the sinking/downslope flow in the rear of the system as it
departs to our N-NE. Sunshine and warmth will likely return
later Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions will dominate through the 24-hour TAF period. Some
patchy ground fog is presently noted on satellite imagery over the
far western Piedmont, west of INT. We kept a mention of MVFR
visibilities till 13z at KINT to account for the isolated fog near
the terminal. Light winds will become west to northwest this
afternoon at 5-8 kt. A few brief gusts to 15 kt are possible over
the Triad terminals during peak heating. High clouds will continue
to build northward this afternoon and tonight tied to Isaias.

Outlook: Rain and flight restrictions, and cold air damming, are
likely to develop across cntl NC late Sat into Sun with the remnants
of Isaias. Although there remains timing/duration uncertainty of
those impacts, the heaviest rain is expected Saturday afternoon and
evening through the early afternoon Sunday. A few storms may develop
Sunday, especially near FAY. Sub-VFR restrictions may lingering into
Monday, but drier weather should ensue early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett
AVIATION...Kren/MWS