Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS62 KRAH 231911
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 8 PM for
  eastern areas of central NC. An isolated heavy rainfall threat is
  possible over portions of the Triangle and northeastern areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1212 PM Tuesday...

1) Marginal to slight risk for severe storms into early evening
Tuesday. An isolated heavy rainfall threat is also possible.

2) Excessively hot weather is possible again on Friday-Saturday and
especially by Sunday-Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1212 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Marginal to slight risk for severe storms into
early evening Tuesday. An isolated heavy rainfall threat is also
possible.

The latest satellite imagery reveals an MCV tracking across portions
of the Triangle and eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Mesoanalysis
shows about 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE for areas along and east of the
Triangle into the Coastal Plain, with about 25-30 kt of 0-3 km and 0-
6 km shear. Overall, the 0-1 km shear is lower, presently at 10-15
kt. That said, a low-end tornado threat still cannot be ruled out
along and east of the Triangle, maximizing over the northern Coastal
Plain. The main threat, however, still appears to be damaging winds
as some bowing segments may form in the favorable 0-3 km shear that
is in place.

Expect the main threat of severe weather to remain in place until 4-
7 PM this evening, mainly focused from the Triangle east into the
central and northern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 8 PM. Our current
thinking suggests the storm threat is largely diminished across the
Triad with the MCV east of this area, but cannot rule out a stray
storm late this afternoon, especially east toward Burlington and
Chatham County. While not outlooked by WPC, the HREF/REFS do paint a
swath of 1 to perhaps 3 inches of rainfall over portions of the
Triangle and northeast Piedmont by evening. An isolated heavy
rainfall threat may be possible, largely focused over urban and poor
drainage areas. By tonight, storm activity should greatly diminish
as the MCV tracks east of the area. Still, we cannot rule out some
stray isolated storms with the actual approaching cold front moving
south out of VA and the northern Piedmont of NC. The best chance for
these isolated storms appears near the Triangle and northern Coastal
Plain near Rocky Mount up until about 7-8 PM. Storm chances then
wane tonight as the front sweeps through and high pressure settles
into the area. Low temperatures should fall into the low to middle
60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Excessively hot weather is possible again on Friday-
Saturday and especially by Sunday-Monday.

An elongated sub-tropical jet is expected to buckle north of the
Carolinas on Fri and spread anomalously warm 850mb temps (~20C) and
mark the return of excessively hot temperatures into the weekend. A
strong mid/upper level low is forecast to dig from the PacNW into
the Northern Rockies by Sun morning. The downstream response will
build a strong mid/upper level ridge and high-latitude omega
blocking pattern that will persist through the forecast period,
although wobbling eastward with time.

This pattern will favor a potentially prolonged period of
excessively hot temperatures over the Carolinas, only briefly
interrupted by a weak backdoor cold frontal passage and
isolated/scattered cold frontal convection Sun into Sun night with
not-as-hot temperatures and northeasterly flow lingering into
Monday. Temperatures in the mid/upper 90s to around 100 will become
common Fri and Sat, and perhaps lingering into Sun towards the NC/SC
border. The one saving grace is humidity doesn`t look overly
oppressive during the period, with dew points in the mid-to-upper-
60s during peak heating. Still, heat indices approaching 105 will be
possible from the Triangle south and east by Saturday, and Heat
Advisories may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Tuesday...

The main challenge with the near-term will be the ongoing scattered
showers and storms tracking east ahead of a cold front and an
embedded mesoscale low pressure system. The main storm threat has
pushed east of the Triad terminals, but the threat of storms remains
across RDU, RWI and FAY. The highest confidence for storms based on
HREF/REFS ensemble guidance is at RDU and RWI. Storms should mainly
be focused until the 21-22z time frame, with the potential for
strong gusty winds and IFR/MVFR conditions. An isolated shower or
storm may still be possible up to 00z as the cold front gradually
sags south from VA, most favored at RDU/RWI and possibly FAY. A
period of MVFR may linger at RWI till 00-02z, though VFR conditions
are expected to dominate tonight through Wednesday. Gusts outside of
storms from the west and northwest are possible up to 25 kt,
diminishing tonight as high pressure settles into the area.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Wed through Thu. A return to
isolated or scattered diurnal convection is favored Fri-Sun with
another frontal system, as well as the potential for early morning
stratus late in the week and upcoming weekend

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 26: KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KRDU: 104/1954 KFAY: 102/1998

June 28: KRDU: 100/1959


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23: KFAY: 77/2024

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914

June 29: KGSO: 74/2024 KFAY: 76/1969

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AK/AS
AVIATION...AK