Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS62 KRAH 231036
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
636 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Anson, Richmond,
   Scotland, Hoke, and Cumberland until 9 am Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold
frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
along the Coastal Plain.

2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a
cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
along the Coastal Plain.

A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties
this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern
Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope
flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much
more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s
percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this
afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle
50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one
exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang
out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great
afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to
middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper
50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs
the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south.

With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a
stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though
overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some
of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave
forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave
is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle
the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered
storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to
the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if
trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south
and east Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to
central NC Thursday through the weekend.

A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will
continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of
shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through
Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper
moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears
limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over
the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should
support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s
return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal
into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each
afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may
limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation
with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any
MCV`s from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high-
end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2"
based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur
everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most
locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5"
between 8 AM Thurs to 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for
excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 624 AM Sunday...

Patchy to areas of fog have developed across central NC. The lowest
visibilities are presently found at FAY, though low stratus has
extended as far west at GSO/INT. A surface cold front will move
through this morning, scouring out the low-level moisture. But
before that happens, LIFR/IFR conditions will be favored at FAY and
possibly RWI. Confidence was too low to include these restrictions
at RDU, but it cannot be ruled out. The latest satellite imagery
reveals most of the sub-VFR visibilities and stratus are focused
over the western Piedmont, southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
southern Coastal Plain. As the front moves through, winds will
become west-northwest, with brief gusts this afternoon to 15-18 kt.
A weak surface wave is becoming increasing favored to develop in SC
overnight tonight, keeping low-level moisture in place across the
eastern portion of central NC. A few isolated showers are possible
near FAY, though the better chance is for LIFR conditions early Mon
as moisture lingers over the eastern Sanhills and Coastal Plain.

Outlook: Early morning fog/stratus will be possible Mon morning at
FAY. A weak surface wave will promote a chance of isolated storms
near FAY/RWI Monday. Moisture and lift increases midweek and the
chance of convection returns area wide Wed-Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ083>086-088.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett
AVIATION...Kren