Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

872
FXUS62 KRAH 040800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

* Areas of dense fog likely in the Coastal Plain this morning, then
  again Thu morning from the Coastal to the Sandhills and srn
  Piedmont

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

1) Areas of dense fog likely in the Coastal Plain this morning, then
again Thu morning from the Coastal to the Sandhills and srn Piedmont

2) Still expect an extended period of much above normal
temperatures, including potential near-record warmth, starting Thu
and stretching through at least Tue. Rain chances should be highest
Sun/Mon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of dense fog likely in the Coastal Plain this
morning, then again Thu morning from the Coastal to the Sandhills
and srn Piedmont

Areas of fog continue to develop and expand as forecast over the ern
Carolinas this morning, including into the RAH Coastal Plain, where
Tue afternoon-evening clearing was most pronounced and favored
maximized radiational cooling of richest low-level moisture
characterized by afternoon surface dewpoints (and crossover
temperatures) in the upr 40s to mid 50s F. A Dense Fog Advisory will
probably be needed for the Coastal Plain within the next hour or so,
provided observational trends continue. Meanwhile to the west and
throughout the rest of cntl NC, radiation fog and mist should be
patchier in coverage and not as dense, owing to greater cloud
coverage from both scattered to broken stratocumulus, residual to
and trapped by the stability/temperature inversion related to
previous days` cold air damming, and also high-level ceilings.
Daytime heating today should cause fog to disperse/dissipate by
~14Z, with following unseasonably warm temperatures mostly in the
mid 70s this afternoon.

Areas of fog and very low overcast are likely to redevelop late
tonight-Thu morning over a larger portion of cntl NC, including much
of the Sandhills and srn Piedmont, in addition to the Coastal Plain.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Still expect an extended period of much above
normal temperatures, including potential near-record warmth,
starting Thu and stretching through at least Tue. Rain chances
should be highest Sun/Mon

Strong mid level ridging building over and just off the Southeast
U.S coast late this week through early next week, topping a strong
surface ridge extending westward across the Southeast coast, will
ensure above normal temps for several days, at least into the middle
of next week. The latest model output continues to favor anomalously
high daily low level thicknesses, around 50 m above normal Thu and
at least 55-60 m above normal Fri through Tue (and likely beyond).
This suggests highs around 20 deg F above normal, given decent
insolation, while daily lows will be quite warm as well, in the mid
50s to lower 60s, which are actually close to the normal highs for
this time of year. Fri, Sat, and Tue appear likely to be the warmest
days, and both highs and lows through this stretch will be very
close to records at GSO, RDU, and FAY.

This mid level ridging will be countered by a deep phased mid level
trough over western NOAM, from Alberta and Manitoba southward to the
Desert Southwest, and the movement of the northern stream portion of
this trough will help drive our peak rain chances starting over the
weekend. Initially, the warm and subsiding mid levels over NC, along
with the surface ridge initially helping to limit Gulf- and Atlantic-
source moisture flux into our area, will keep us mostly dry into
Sat, although isolated showers can`t be ruled out. While the
southern portion of the trough will close off a low and retrograde
back over and just W of NW Mexico, energy kicking out of the trough
Fri, from the Four Corners NNE through the Dakotas, will get
absorbed into the northern portion of the trough as it crosses
central Canada and the Great Lakes into eastern Canada and the St
Lawrence Valley over the weekend, although model spread with the
amplitude and speed of this feature becomes pretty large by Sun.
This broad northern stream trough will help flatten the ridge over
the Mid Atlantic region and push a surface cold front southward
toward NC, although models still favor keeping this front just to
our N. Nevertheless, a prefrontal increase in both clouds and PW
should lead to increasing shower chances, highest Sun through Mon,
with perhaps a storm or two as well. Despite the clouds and precip
potential, thicknesses will remain anomalously high Sun/Mon, keep
temps (especially lows) well above normal into early next week. The
northern and southern streams are likely to stay unphased into mid
week, and as the NW Mexico low shifts eastward, it will build
renewed ridging over the Gulf and Southeast, thus keeping our
heights aloft and surface temps well above normal. Pops should drop
back to near climatology for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

Residual moisture from widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings over the
Piedmont on Tue will continue to pool at the base of a lingering
temperature inversion based in MVFR range and manifest as MVFR
stratocumulus ceilings at GSO and INT this morning. If these
ceilings disperse as expected by 10-12Z, a short period of radiation
fog will be possible there, and also at RDU. Meanwhile to the east,
where Tue afternoon-evening clearing was most pronounced and where
low-level moisture will remain relatively maximized through the ern
Carolinas, areas of LIFR-IFR fog and stratus will continue to
develop and expand through the Coastal Plain and over and especially
east of RWI and FAY this morning. Daytime heating should cause any
flight restrictions that develop this morning to disperse to VFR by
~14Z, with a swly surface wind that will strengthen to between 6-12
kts and which may gust briefly and occasionally into the mid teens
kts from late this morning through early this afternoon.

Outlook: While areas of stratus and/or fog will be possible each
morning through the rest of the week, probability of occurrence will
be highest at ern sites (ie. FAY and RWI), where low-level moisture
will be richest and deepest.

&&

Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGSO: 81/1967
KRDU: 83/1967

March 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918

March 7:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 85/1974
KFAY: 84/1961

March 8:
KGSO: 83/2000
KFAY: 87/1974

March 9:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 84/2009

March 10:
KGSO: 78/2016
KRDU: 81/1974
KFAY: 84/1974


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 5:
KFAY: 63/1976

March 6:
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961

March 7:
KGSO: 63/1956
KRDU: 64/1956
KFAY: 65/1961

March 8:
KGSO: 57/1946
KRDU: 60/1946
KFAY: 63/1961

March 9:
KGSO: 61/1921
KRDU: 61/1921
KFAY: 62/1980

March 10:
KGSO: 58/2016
KRDU: 57/2020
KFAY: 65/1964

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/GIH
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS