Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS62 KRAH 311205
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
705 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 350 AM Saturday....

Minor adjustments to the snowfall totals, but the forecast
remains on track for portions of central North Carolina to see a
major winter storm and perhaps even brief blizzard conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 350 AM Saturday....

1) A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of central North
Carolina until Sunday morning. Widespread snow accumulations of
4-8 inches, with areas of 10+ inches possible, and
blowing/drifting snow resulting in moderate to major impacts to
travel today into Sunday morning.

2) A prolonged Arctic air mass in place will result in well below
normal temperatures across central NC from today through much of
next week.

3) Precip chances return by the middle of the week. Timing of
precip, and precip type, remain in question

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 350 AM Saturday....

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of
central North Carolina until Sunday morning. Widespread snow
accumulations of 4-8 inches, with areas of 10+ inches possible,
and blowing/drifting snow resulting in moderate to major impacts
to travel today into Sunday morning.

A major winter storm is beginning to take shape early this morning
with conditions expected to deteriorate through the morning hours in
the western Piedmont and elsewhere this afternoon into the overnight
hours. Regional radar mosaic imagery and SPC mesoanalysis highlight
two areas of ongoing snowfall, which will be described separately
below.

The first is occurring over southwest VA into the NC Piedmont and
foothills driven by weak H850 WAA and strengthening FGEN as the
mid/upper level trough approaches, which is currently pivoting
across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This area is
expected to remain mostly light but fill in through daybreak as
the H850 band slowly collapses southward and the mid/upper
trough begins to close off and transition to neutrally-tilted
by 18z. This should result in widespread 0.1" to around 0.3" of
liquid equivalent across the western Piedmont, which at roughly
15:1 snow-liquid ratios (SLR), will equate to an area of 1.5 to
roughly 4 inches through the morning hours. Areas in the eastern
Piedmont and western Sandhills may not receive much snowfall
before 18z, but this is likely to change through the afternoon
and result in widespread 3-7 inches with locally higher amounts
of up to 10 inches. Some areas of the eastern Piedmont may see a
QPF minimum relative to surrounding areas. The general
consensus within 50th percentile ensemble guidance suggests 0.25
of liquid equivalent is still favored in this area and
translates to around 4 inches.

The second is a well developed area on regional radar across the
eastern Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain and is being
driven by a strengthening H925 FGEN band. This area is
surprisingly not being resolved well within the hi-res guidance,
but rather the global and regional models; such as the GFS,
Canadian reg/nh, and NAM 12km. These models suggest liquid
equivalent of 0.3 to 0.6 will be possible within this area by
18z and would produce 3 to as much as 6 inches (with SLR of
closer to 11:1 at this time) before the afternoon hours. If
observational trends hold and the global models do handle its
evolution well, then as the mid/upper trough negatively tilts
and brings significant synoptic forcing overtop this band, it is
reasonably possible that 0.75 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent
falls and results in a swath of 10-15 inches of snow. This swath
would likely fall within a larger area of 4-8 inches in the
Coastal Plain into the eastern Sandhills.

Blowing and drifting snow will be possible throughout the day as
wind gusts increase to around 25 mph, but will be increasingly
likely after 00z, especially in the Coastal Plain and eastern
Sandhills, and to a lesser extent the eastern Piedmont. At this
time, the surface low off the coast is expected to rapidly deepen to
sub-990 by 06z and sub-980 by 12z Sun and produce the strongest wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph and infrequent gusts up to 45 mph. These winds
combined with falling/blowing snow may result in brief blizzard
conditions in the Coastal Plain into the eastern Sandhills,
which would drop visibilities to 1/4 mile or less at times.

When all is said and done as precipitation moves out of the area Sun
morning, storm total amounts should range from 3-7 inches in the
Piedmont and 4-9 inches in the Coastal Plain and eastern
Sandhills. This will result in moderate to major travel impacts,
even in the absence of the higher end amounts. Major to
potentially extreme impacts to travel and infrastructure should
be expected where the significant snow amounts of 10-12+ inches
occur. Travel will become dangerous or even impossible in these
locations Sat evening into Sun morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A prolonged Arctic air mass in place will result in
well below normal temperatures across central NC from today through
much of next week.

Cold weather headlines remain in place for today through mid-morning
Sunday. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in place through 1 AM
Sunday, followed by an Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 10
AM Sunday morning. Wind chills most of today will hover in the
single digits with highs only in the low to mid 20s with falling
temps through the day and winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Tonight,
colder air builds in and the pressure gradient strengthens. Wind
gusts out of the north will increase with speeds of 30 to 35 mph,
although some infrequent gusts to 40 mph over the Coastal Plain
along/east of I-95 are also possible. With lows projected to be in
the lower teens most areas, wind chills will range from near zero in
the south to 5 below in the north. HREF probabilities for wind
chills at or below -5 degF are over 50-percent along/north of US-64.
The Extreme Cold Warning will be allowed to expire mid-morning
Sunday as temperatures rise but still remain cold for highs Sun in
the upper 20s to low 30s.

The Arctic air mass will remain entrenched over the region into much
of next week. With anticipated snow cover in place, lows Sun night
could range from the single digits to lower teens, where another
Cold Advisory may again be needed. Highs will remain below normal
much of next week, although we do see a somewhat moderating trend
for highs Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s before
falling back Thu in the mid 30s to low 40s with our potential next
weather system.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Precip chances return by the middle of the week.
Timing of precip and precip type remain in question

There is an increasing signal among the global ensembles that a weak
system will move through the Mid Atlantic by the middle of next
week. Unfortunately there remains some significant differences among
the Canadian/GFS/EC ensemble clusters with respect to when precip
will move through the area and exactly what form that precip will
take. The EC based clusters tend to bring the system through earlier
than other solutions with a rain/snow mix on Wednesday, with some
suggestions that the cold air may chase the moisture out of the area
Wednesday night. The GFS and its family of ensembles are a bit
slower with the arrival of the precip suggesting the potential for
rain/snow at the onset on Wednesday, changing to rain, then changing
back to snow on the back end as cold air returns on Thursday. Thus
confidence in this period is high for precip but low for exact
timing of onset/ending and finer details of p-type. Will maintain a
middle of the road rain/snow mix forecast for Wednesday into
Thursday and tighten up the timing a bit once a clearer scenario
emerges.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 AM Saturday...

Snow and flight restrictions, still spatially separate over the nw
Piedmont (INT/GSO) and in the Coastal Plain (RWI and just east of
FAY), will continue to blossom and fill in throughout cntl NC today,
then gradually end from west to east and return to VFR overnight.
The most-prolonged and heaviest, banded snow will probably result at
FAY and RWI this evening, when blizzard conditions in snow and
blowing snow will be possible for a few hours this evening. Those
winds, nely ones, will also strengthen and become increasingly gusty
this morning and more-markedly especially at FAY and RWI this
evening, while backing to nly, as coastal low pressure explosively
deepens off the NC coast.

Outlook: Skies will clear and favor VFR conditions Sun and be
accompanied by lingering, nwly gustiness through sunset Sun. The
next chance of flight restrictions will be at the end of the
forecast period or just beyond, as the next frontal system impacts
the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31: KGSO: 3/1966, KRDU: 3/1966, KFAY: 9/1934
February 1: KGSO:-4/1936, KRDU: 8/1981, KFAY: 1/1936


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948
February 3: KGSO: 23/1996, KRDU: 24/1996, KFAY: 30/1961

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/Kren/Leins
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH