Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS62 KRAH 101115
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Already minimal QPF with a moisture-starved clipper low and
  frontal system on Thu has trended lower.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

1) After a frost advisory this morning, temperatures will be above
normal through mid-week.

2) A moisture-starved clipper low and frontal system will provide a
chance of light rain Thu and a step down to below average
temperatures for Friday through mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a frost advisory this morning, temperatures
will be above normal through mid-week.

High pressure will dominate over the region for the next several
days. With calm surface winds through this morning, there will be
good radiational cooling conditions through the night. This will
allow for temperatures to dip into generally the mid to upper 30s
with low 40s in the south and urban areas late tonight through early
morning. Thus, a Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM this
morning for much of central NC, besides the far SE counties.

Maximum temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow will rise up to 10
degrees above normal. This equates to highs in the low to mid 70s
each afternoon. Today is likely to be a degree or two warmer than
tomorrow as low level thicknesses are slightly lower tomorrow
afternoon. Minimum temperatures will also rise each night, with lows
generally expected in the low to mid 40s late tonight and in the mid
40s to around 50 Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A moisture-starved clipper low and frontal system
will provide a chance of light rain Thu and a step down to below
average temperatures for Friday through mid next week.

A mid/upr-level cyclone will develop over srn ON/QC and the Great
Lakes late this week and progress slowly across and offshore the
Northeast and Atlantic Canada through the weekend, during which time
a series of shortwave perturbations will progress through the
associated cyclonic flow across and offshore the Middle Atlantic.

At the surface, a clipper low will be in the process of deepening
across the Middle Atlantic Thu and/or redeveloping ("transferring
energy") to an initial coastal low off the the coast of the Middle
Atlantic and srn New England. A related, trailing cold front will
progress across cntl NC on Thu. A closely-spaced, reinforcing cold
front (related to the next in the aforementioned series of shortwave
perturbations) will follow and likely move across cntl NC late Fri-
Fri night. High pressure will follow and build from central Canada
to the Middle Atlantic this weekend through early next week, where
it will likely move little while gradually weakening through the
middle of next week.

Already minimal QPF with the moisture-starved clipper low and frontal
system on Thu has trended lower and lees than a tenth of an inch
throughout cntl NC. In fact, only a fleeting moist/saturated layer
in the mid-levels, atop a dry sub-cloud layer below ~800 mb suggest
rainfall amounts will generally be several hundredths of an inch, if
any across srn zones.

It will otherwise trend much cooler, with the coldest air likely to
follow the reinforcing cold front into the region late Fri-Fri
night. Point forecast soundings depict relatively steep low-level
lapse rates in CAA behind that front for Sat morning, which would
limit further cooling potential via radiative processes. The coldest
temperatures will likely follow as that CAA abates and the MSL
pressure gradient relaxes by Sun and Mon morning, when sub-freezing
temperatures appear likely in all but perhaps the major urban areas.
A hard freeze will be possible especially in outlying/rural Piedmont
locations. While some moderation will result as the high gradually
weakens through the middle of next week, its continued presence and
influence will yield continued below average temperatures and
multiple, consecutive mornings of damaging cold.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected over the 24 hour TAF period. A few
locations have had brief visibility restrictions from shallow fog
tonight, however this should end shortly and is not expected to
impact any TAF site. Overall light southwesterly winds will back to
northwesterly this evening before further backing to northerly
overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday.
Rain may return Thursday into Friday, bringing the next chance of
sub-VFR restrictions. Gusty winds are also expected Friday after a
cold frontal passage.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083-084.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH/MWS
AVIATION...LH