Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS62 KRAH 260921
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
421 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 AM Monday...

* Areas of freezing drizzle and freezing fog may result in
  additional, very light ice accrual over the nrn Piedmont this
  morning.


* A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of cntl NC for
  tonight through Mon morning.

* While confidence is increasing for coastal cyclogenesis along the
  East Coast this weekend, there remains uncertainty in
  the degree of associated impacts to cntl NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Monday...

1) Areas of freezing drizzle and freezing fog may result in
additional, very light ice accrual over the nrn Piedmont this
morning. Hazardous travel and a risk of power outages will otherwise
remain, at least until clearing skies and insolation later this
morning-midday increase melting.

2) Dangerously cold conditions return tonight, accompanied by
continued hazardous travel, as remaining snow/sleet/ice cover freeze
solidly.

3) Continued bitter cold and dry through mid to late week.

4) A few chances for snow are possible Thursday and Saturday, but
confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES 1 and 2...

A combination of a saturated, in-situ damming airmass, and also lift
accompanying a couple of approaching, positively-tilted troughs
aloft, will maintain cloudy or mostly so conditions that will clear
from west to east throughout the morning, to midday-early afternoon
in the Coastal Plain. Patchy to areas of freezing drizzle and
freezing fog will be possible within that in-situ damming airmass
over the nrn Piedmont. RDU reported a couple of hundredths of
additional ice from that freezing drizzle between 07-09Z. However,
the freezing/melting line has retreated nwwd to an arc from near VUJ
to RDU to ETC, and some additional nwwd retreat will likely result
into the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain this morning, which may
initiate some melting. However, it will not be until the
aforementioned clearing, and associated insolation, develop ewd and
yield more significant melting later today.

Clearing of the low-levels will come courtesy of the passage of a
cold front now working its way into-through the NC Blue Ridge.
Developing and strengthening nwly winds behind that front, and with
associated mixing/deepening of the boundary layer, will result in
gusts between 20-30 mph, which may increase power outage potential
while the aforementioned melting otherwise lessens that risk.

CAA today may be offset to some degree by downslope/compressional
heating, with highs likely to range from lwr 30s across the nw
Piedmont to lwr 40s across srn/sern zones. Temperatures will turn
sharply colder tonight amid continued CAA that may lessen late and
allow for areas of brief calm over the srn/wrn Piedmont around
sunrise Mon. Low temperatures in the single digits above zero across
the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain will range to lwr-mid teens
across srn zones. When combined with nwly winds that will be
strongest both this evening and then again with mixing right after
sunrise Tue, wind chill values mostly in the single digits above
zero, to five below at times across the nw Piedmont will result.
Those dangerously cold temperatures will also cause remaining
snow/sleet/ice cover to freeze solidly tonight; and a Winter Weather
Advisory will probably be needed.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A short-wave will dive through the deep south on Wednesday while a
re-enforcing high builds across the Ohio Valley. This synoptic
setup, combined with likely some lingering snow/sleet pack on the
ground will promote the continuation of well below normal
temperatures.  Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will generally range
in the lower 30s across the north to around 40 at the NC/SC border.
A series of short-waves will dive across the Mid-Atlantic and Deep
South on Wednesday/Thursday. An associated sfc front will turn flow
nwly Thursday into Friday which will promote a bit cooler highs in
the upper 20s across the north to mid 30s across the south. Temps
remain chilly Saturday with perhaps a warming trend into the early
next week.  Lows over this timeframe will dip into the upper single
digits across the north to mid to upper teens across the south. Cold
Weather Advisory criteria may be reached a few of these nights over
portions of our area especially Friday and Saturday nights.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The aforementioned mid-Atlantic short-wave early Thursday is likely
to generate upslope snow over the Blue Ridge mountains. A few
isolated models previously indicated the potential for some light
snow in our northwest early Thursday. However, latest 00Z guidance
and forecast point soundings are less supportive of snow Thursday in
our area. Soundings indicate shallow saturation through the depth of
the atmosphere, and perhaps not even reaching the dendritic growth
zone. Given the nw flow and little moisture to play with, think the
trend towards upslope snow isolated over the Blue Ridge mountains
seems likely.

For Saturday, the latest 00Z guidance (including the GFS, ECMWF,
their ensembles, and various AI-based output) is maybe trending
towards some snow potential for our area.  In general, most guidance
depicts a strong northern stream trough digging south across the
Great Lakes Friday and merging with a southern stream jet somewhere
over the Deep South/Southeast Saturday. Additionally, while previous
runs of the GFS/Euro/Canadian were each waffling back and forth
between no coastal low and a definite coastal low, virtually all of
these models are now depicting some sort of offshore cyclogenesis.
Still a bit far out to talk in absolutes, but the synoptic setup may
indeed be favorable for snow for our CWA. We`ll see how the guidance
trends wrt to handling the upper and lower level waves this week,
and if a favorable setup for snow to spread inland over central NC
unfolds, or if instead the Mid-Atlantic/New England region trends
more favorable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 134 AM Monday...

A mix of mostly rain with some fleeting freezing rain continues at
KFAY this morning. Some lingering drizzle is possible at KRDU and
KRWI the next several hours as well. However, in all, the
precipitation should continue to exit to our east through about
sunrise Monday morning. Ceilings will slowly lift to VFR from west
to east by mid to late Monday morning as a cold front moves through.
Expect winds to turn wnwly and gust into the 15 to 25 kt range
behind the front Monday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
support the potential for periods of 15 to 20 kt gusts through 06Z.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected during the outlook
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 31: KRDU: 27/1948


Record Low Temperatures:

January 27: KRDU: 8/1940 KFAY: 11/1940

January 31: KGSO: 3/1966

February 1: KRDU: 8/1981

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077-083>086.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ078-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Luchetti
AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett