Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KRAH 161932
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 PM Monday...

* The cold front expected to move into the area Fri/Fri night may
  become quasi-stationary across the region over the weekend,
  however confidence in the finer details remains uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM Monday...

1) Patchy dense fog possible Tue morning

2) Temperatures will moderate through Friday. A cold front will move
into and across central NC Friday/Friday night, potentially bringing
some passing showers with it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy dense fog possible Tue morning

A combination tonight of clear and calm (or nearly so), and also
residual low-level and soil moisture, should favor the development
of radiation fog overnight-Tue morning. It should be noted that
despite this relatively favorable environment, HREF probabilities
for visibility restrictions less than one half mile during that time
have decreased from 40-75% to 25-60%, between 00Z and 12Z/16th model
cycles. As such, fog coverage of "patchy" versus "areas of" were
retained in the NDFD for this forecast cycle.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will moderate through Friday. A cold
front will move into and across central NC Friday/Friday night,
potentially bringing some passing showers with it.

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will flatten as it moves across the
region Wed-Fri, with some weak disturbances traversing the ridge
Thu/Thu night. Meanwhile, a nrn stream s/w will track ewd across the
nrn Plains and into the upr MS Valley, while a trailing s/w moves
across the Intermountain West. However, there are still significant
model differences wrt the strength and track of these disturbances.
At the surface, as the high shifts ewd over the Atlantic, warm sly
return flow will prevail across the area. A warm front will lift nwd
across central NC on Wednesday, perhaps getting hung up across the
nrn Piedmont and/or nrn Coastal Plain as high pressure ridges swd
across the mid-Atlantic Wed night/Thu. The warm front should finally
lift out of the area by Thu night as the surface low occludes and
lifts newd across the wrn Great Lakes. The attendant cold front will
gradually become more W-E oriented across the region while the
parent low occludes and a secondary low tracks ewd along the front.

Temperatures will moderate from Wed-Fri, with highs ranging from
around 70 degrees along the VA border to upper 70s across the south
by Friday. Along the warm front with the weak disturbances aloft
Thu/Thu night, there could be some light rain, primarily along the
VA border, otherwise the better chance for a shower or two will be
Fri/Fri night as the front moves into the area from the NW. However,
given the continued uncertainty, confidence on chances, coverage,
and amounts remain low at this time.

Over the weekend: The surface front may linger across the area
through Sat/Sat night, however there is a good deal of forecast
uncertainty wrt the front and potential low developing/moving along
it. There are also significant differences between the medium-range
operational model solutions wrt the aforementioned trailing s/w and
how it evolves as it moves ewd across the CONUS. These differences
will have implications for the weather across central NC, thus the
confidence in the finer weather details for Sat/Sun is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

Moist, nly flow, around a pair of coastal lows moving away from the
middle Atlantic coast, will maintain MVFR stratocumulus ceilings at
RWI for another couple or so hours. Some lingering, nely surface
gustiness will be possible through the same time at all sites,
before those winds lessen and probably become calm by this evening.
A combination of clear and calm tonight, and also residual low-level
and soil moisture, should favor the development of radiation fog and
ceilings overnight-Tue morning.

Outlook: A good chance of areas of fog and stratus will result again
Wed morning, with MVFR ceilings from the latter that may linger
through early afternoon. After a risk of low-level wind shear Tue
night-Wed morning, swly surface winds will strengthen and become
gusty through the day Wed, particularly in areas where clearing and
deeper mixing materialize.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP
AVIATION...MWS