Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

199
FXUS62 KRAH 171542
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1142 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Isolated showers are possible over the NW Piedmont this
  evening. A better chance will exist area-wide Friday into
  Saturday ahead of a cold front.

* The extended forecast period could bring more seasonable
  temperatures with unsettled weather early to middle of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 AM Thursday...

1) A few frontal systems will bring isolated to scattered
storms Thursday through Sat.

2) An unsettled pattern with more seasonable temperatures may return
early to middle of next week, though details are unclear at this
point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few frontal systems will bring isolated to
scattered storms Thursday through Sat.

The anomalous upper ridge over the TN valley is forecast to
gradually shift west toward the lower MS valley late this week
and weekend. As that happens, northwest flow around the
periphery of the ridge may direct a few convectively-induced
disturbances into the region today through early Sat ahead of a
few frontal systems. Moisture levels will correspondingly increase
to well above seasonable normals with precipitable water values
around 1.7 to 2 inches during this period.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance shows isolated showers or
storms developing over the lower OH valley into the Appalachians
of NC/VA this afternoon and evening in association with a
convectively-induced disturbance in the developing NW flow aloft.
Instability today will be confined west of central NC in VA and far
western NC. Any showers that do develop, albeit minimal, are only
expected to briefly impact the Triad and along the VA border of the
northern/northwest Piedmont.

A better chance of showers and storms will exist Friday into
Saturday as a more prominent lead trough and backdoor cold front
move south from the northeast late Friday through early
Saturday. Instability increases to 1000-1500 J/kg, though lapse
rates and shear will limit storm intensity. Storms will maximize
during the early to mid evening Friday over central NC. On
Saturday, as the front moves through, the best chance of storms
will focus over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern
Coastal Plain along residual instability and any lingering
convergence if the front is slow to move through. Either way, NE
flow should favor lower temperatures in the mid 80s Saturday,
contrasted with lower 90s Friday. We cannot rule out some stray
isolated storms Sunday, but that part of the forecast appears to
be trending drier.


KEY MESSAGE 2... An unsettled pattern with more seasonable
temperatures may return early to middle of next week, though details
are unclear at this point.

From Sunday onward, ensemble guidance continues to show a
potentially unsettled pattern, albeit with low predictability.
Regardless of which ensemble cluster solution you examine, they
all appear to agree that northeast flow will re-exert itself
Tuesday into mid-late next week as a 1035-mb high over eastern
Canada noses down into the Mid-Atlantic. This is evident after a
brief warm and humid pattern Sunday and Monday in the 80s to
around 90. Ahead of the cooler and potentially more seasonal
pattern will be a cold front, sometime Monday or Tuesday, that
could bring showers/storms. Coupled to this will be a closed
upper-low over the NE Gulf that could ride up the SE US in
response to troughing over the MS/OH valley. If that were to
happen, suggested by some ensembles, as well as the EC-AIFS and
AI-GFS, a surface low could develop along a frontal zone along
the Carolina coast, to favor isentropic rain or showers early to
middle of next week. All of this is unclear given the spread in the
guidance, though there are signals for more seasonable temperatures
in the 70s to low 80s in a CAD-type regime if that were to
materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Thursday...

Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop from wrn through
Southside VA through this afternoon; and a couple of isolated ones
may drift generally swd and into the INT/GSO vicinity mainly between
22Z-01Z, before dissipating. VFR conditions are expected otherwise
and elsewhere until just beyond the 18Z TAF period, when Friday
afternoon through night a couple of cold fronts will trigger
scattered to locally numerous showers and storms over cntl NC.

Outlook: A risk of convection will linger along the passing fronts
on Saturday, especially over the srn half of NC and including at FAY.
Nely flow behind the fronts will otherwise increase the likelihood
of IFR-MVFR ceilings, lowest and most prolonged over the Piedmont
(especially at INT/GSO), both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Stronger
nely flow, and an increasing likelihood of cold air damming, will
favor additional sub-VFR conditions and periods of light rain during
the middle of next week (as early as Tue).

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...MWS