Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS62 KRAH 262355
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The NBM has trended a few degrees warmer with temperatures Friday
  through Tuesday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

1) An unsettled pattern will develop for the end of the work week,
with Friday afternoon into Saturday the most likely time period for
showers/storms.

2) Above normal temperatures return to the forecast by Monday and
continue into the beginning of September.

$$

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An unsettled pattern will develop for the end of
the work week, with Friday afternoon into Saturday the most likely
time period for showers/storms.

A cold front approaching the region will slow dramatically once it
reaches central North Carolina early Friday, likely taking most of
Friday and Saturday to make it the rest of the way to the coastline.
While the precipitation shield will not remain completely on the
warm side of the front, expect anywhere between a 50-70% chance for
showers/storms on Friday, with the highest chances across the
southeast. The entire forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of
5) risk for severe weather that day, which would primarily come from
damaging wind. While there is not much wind shear in the vertical
profile to help organize storms, there could be anywhere between
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, depending on the model solution. In
addition, there is a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall generally to the west of US-1 and a slight (level 2 of 4)
risk to the east of US-1. Not only will there not be much wind shear
to organize storms, the wind itself will generally be light through
the profile, resulting in slow storm movement. As the front shifts
east on Saturday, the chance of rain will drop to 20-70%, with
southeastern locations still having the highest risk. The marginal
risk for excessive rainfall will continue everywhere on Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures return to the forecast by
Monday and continue into the beginning of September.

Once the front slips offshore, an upper ridge will develop over the
southeastern United States. This will bring the surface wind out of
the southwest or the west, with downsloping wind off the mountains.
This will bring a return of high temperatures to the mid 90s
areawide. Record high temperatures are generally in the triple
digits, so record highs shouldn`t be set during this time period.
Still, it will be a hot and dry start to the month of September.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 755 PM Wednesday...

This afternoon/evening`s showers and thunderstorms have mainly
stayed out of central NC, with no major impacts to any TAF sites.
This is expected to continue tonight, with a small chance of a brief
light shower in the Triad terminals over the next few hours. Late
tonight, an area of low stratus/fog looks to develop mostly in the
central and eastern Piedmont and the Sandhills which could bring
restrictions to all terminals. FAY and RDU look to be the most
likely sites to have restrictions from this, followed by GSO and
RWI, however cannot rule out restrictions at INT as well. Any
restrictions should improve by mid-late morning. Thursday afternoon
into the evening, there could be additional showers/thunderstorms,
however confidence was not high enough to include at a specific TAF
site at this time. The best chance will be in the western portions
of the CWA.

Outlook: Increased shower and thunderstorm chances will return
Friday into Saturday with a slow-moving cold front. Additionally,
low stratus and/or fog may develop and cause sub-VFR restrictions
again each morning through Saturday. Mainly VFR conditions are then
expected to return by Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...LH