Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

354
FXUS62 KRAH 211131
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
631 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm continues to
  increase.
* Continued high confidence in bitterly cold temperatures from early
  Saturday through early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

1) Cold and dry weather through today, with temperatures moderating
through Thursday ahead of the next system.

2) A polar cold front arriving Friday night will set the stage for
frigid temperatures holding well below freezing from early Saturday
through early Monday.

3) A major winter storm is likely this weekend across all of central
NC, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain all possible, although
uncertainty in precip types at any given location remains.

4) Extremely cold temperatures are likely Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold and dry weather prevails through today, with
temperatures moderating through Thursday ahead of the next system.

Cold Canadian high pressure anchored across the Mid-Atlantic region
this morning will shift away later today and tonight allowing a
moderating SW flow to develop.

Highs will moderate into the 45-50 range today and well into the 50s
for the mildest day Thursday. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above freezing tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The polar front will likely arrive Friday night
when the strong dry and very cold air begins to arrive, driven by
the wild 1050+ mb surface high over the upper Midwest. This high
will extend into the NE states and down the eastern seaboard
Saturday. It will bring very strong CAA from the NNE and
temperatures will fall quickly into the upper teens/20s late Friday
night and early Saturday. This will set the stage for the expected
winter storm to follow.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A major winter storm is likely this weekend across
all of central NC, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain all possible,
although uncertainty in precip types at any given location remains.

A very cold air mass will pour into the region from the north behind
the Arctic front starting Fri night. The cold high will expand from
the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes region and St Lawrence
Valley through early next week. The corresponding 850 mb cold front
will also move S into the area early Sat, then stall and hold across
the Carolinas before pushing back north through much of NC Sat
night/Sun, propelled by an southwesterly 850 mb jetlet. In the mid
and upper levels, southern stream energy shifting from SoCal
eastward will combine with polar energy diving into the N Rockies,
resulting in amplified phased troughing over the central CONUS by
Sun, which then shifts E into the E CONUS Mon, although model timing
differences exist. Jetting ahead of this trough will help provide
forcing for ascent and development of a primary surface low and
inverted trough from the central Gulf into E TN/KY by Sun, followed
by a secondary low off the Carolina coast. Confidence is increasing
in this being a dual-low Miller B type cyclogenesis pattern, which
would result in more broad p-type corridors, and the model trend of
a stronger 850 mb jetlet and more northward shift of the warm nose
aloft favors a larger area (broader corridor) that is likely to see
predominant or mixed icing or sleet over just-snow, although a
sizable area especially N and W sections could still see mostly snow
or snow/sleet.

The latest deterministic models and ensemble members overwhelmingly
show a period of some sort of wintry precip over all of central NC
this weekend, with peak accumulations Sat through Sun night. But
differences do remain regarding timing and p-types, and the latter
prevents us from providing a lot of specifics at this time as to the
kind(s) of wintry precip that will dominate. Wintry weather in
central NC essentially requires three things: sufficient moisture,
sufficient lift, and sufficient cold air, both at the surface and
(for snow) aloft as well. The chances that we see all three factors
here continues to grow. With a strong moisture influx from the
Pacific and Gulf, the latest model-projected incoming PWs are now as
high as 200%-250% of normal, a marked increase from yesterday`s
models, further supporting the possibility of long-duration heavy
precip, and the GFS-projected IVT plume is trending greater. Strong
forcing for ascent appears likely at multiple levels, including mid
level DPVA with the approaching trough, upper jet-induced divergence
aloft, and intense low level isentropic upglide. Finally, confidence
is high that we`ll have plenty of low level sub-freezing air with a
steady feed of lower dewpoints from the north to help counteract the
latent heat release from the freezing process. As noted above, with
the models increasingly favoring a Miller B pattern over a Miller A,
we may see significant amounts of a wintry mix over a greater
portion of the CWA, but again, portions of the CWA may still see
mostly snow or snow/sleet. The NBM ice accrual has trended heavier
with icing especially over the southern two-thirds of central NC and
has trended slightly lower with total snow, although amounts are
still quite high especially near the VA border. Regardless of type,
whatever does fall/accrue (whether freezing precip or snow) could be
significant and may have lingering effects well into the next work
week. We will continue to closely monitor this event, and Winter
Storm Watches may be issued earlier than usual, in the next day or
two, given the high confidence in a significant winter event. -GIH


KEY MESSAGE 4... Extremely cold temperatures are likely Saturday
through Tuesday.

A frigid Arctic high with a 1045-1055 mb central pressure will
extend over the Midwest and Great Lakes behind the front. With our
low level thicknesses expected hold around 1250 mb or lower for an
extended time, and with the air mass sourced straight out of the
Arctic, the overnight lows (especially Sat night through Mon night)
may approach or exceed daily records, and daily highs may come close
to record low daily maxima as well, especially if we have a
snowpack. This extended cold weather will mean that whatever wintry
precip accumulates will stick around through at least the middle of
next week, with very slow melting or sublimation. A Cold Weather
Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch or Warning may be needed. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 631 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions with calm to variable winds will persist through the
24 hour TAF period. Some mid-high level cloudiness will stream in
from the southwest today, but VFR conditions will prevail through
the end of the TAF period. Expect generally light swly sfc flow
this afternoon to 10-12kt.

Outlook: Marginal LLWS may develop at northern TAF sites after
00Z/tonight as a low-level jet develops across the mid-Atlantic
overnight. Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions to prevail
through Thursday night (light rain may be possible Thursday
afternoon, but generally should be dry for much of this period).
This weekend, confidence is increasing in a potential winter storm
may bring wintry precipitation and associated sub-VFR conditions
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Hartfield
Aviation...Badgett/Luchetti/Helock