Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

466
FXUS62 KRAH 060634
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

1) Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue each day,
mainly afternoon and evening, through the middle of next week.
Isolated heavy downpours remain possible through Sat, mainly over
the west, but no widespread severe weather or major flooding
concerns are expected. Day-to-day convection details will remain
hard to pinpoint more than 36-48 hours out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
continue each day, mainly afternoon and evening, through the middle
of next week. Isolated heavy downpours remain possible through Sat,
mainly over the west, but no widespread severe weather or major
flooding concerns are expected. Day-to-day convection details will
remain hard to pinpoint more than 36-48 hours out.

A weak mid level trough will hold just W of the S Appalachians into
Fri, sandwiched between strong anticyclones over the Desert
Southwest and off the Mid Atlantic coast. This weakening shear axis
will dissipate as it gets absorbed by a broad northern stream trough
(associated with a large/deep gyre over central Canada) from the
Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. This latter trough will head
east toward the Appalachians over the weekend but dampen in favor of
the longer wave trough just on its heels, with energy diving into
the Upper Midwest maintaining broad troughing into the Great Lakes.
The overall result will be a somewhat persistent pattern into the
weekend, with a baggy mid level shear axis holding to our W, keeping
us in an anticyclonic SSW-SW low-mid level flow, while subtle
perturbations brush our northern border, and the surface pattern
stays ill-defined with a weak MSLP gradient and developing weak lee
trough over the Piedmont. PW will remain near to just slightly above
normal, with poor deep layer bulk shear expected, so despite late-
day SBCAPE potentially reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, coverage should be a
bit limited with a lack of notable dynamic contribution, so will max
out coverage as scattered. The risk for heavy downpours and training
cells leading to localized mainly urban flooding persists into the
weekend, primarily in the W where mid level lapse rates should be
slightly higher than in our E, but don`t anticipate any widespread
flooding problems.

Mid level flow becomes even weaker and more westerly late in the
weekend into early next week, as the westerlies remain to our N and
the flattening mid level ridge off the Southeast coast expands
westward over FL/AL/GA, helping to curb access to the Gulf and
Atlantic moisture sources and further driving down our PW. This
should result in waning coverage, with a focus on mountain
convection shifting into the NW Piedmont. With expected lower cloud
cover, we`ll see warming at the surface as well as aloft, with a lee
trough persisting, and the hottest days of this stretch are expected
to be Mon/Tue, perhaps into Wed, with highs in the low-mid 90s. By
mid into late next week, as the Canadian gyre digs a bit, the
westerlies will dip further S over the Mid Atlantic, and the
resulting acceleration of increasingly (but broadly) cyclonic mid
level flow overhead may support an uptick in coverage as we approach
Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...

Triad terminals will continue to deal with lingering thunderstorms
and brief IFR restrictions through the next few hours as storms move
across the area. Meanwhile eastern sites remain relatively clear
under high cloud cover. As surface winds go nearly calm overnight,
widespread low stratus and fog is expected to develop in the early
morning, bringing LIFR and IFR ceilings as well as reduced
visibilities across all terminals. Morning heating will gradually
lift these low ceilings to MVFR, eventually returning all sites to
VFR conditions around mid to late morning with southwesterly winds
around 5 to 10 kts.

Forecast confidence drops significantly for the afternoon and
evening hours due to widespread model guidance showing conflicting
solutions for widely scattered convection. Given the lower
confidence in placement and timing, thunder is handled via PROB30
and TEMPO groups rather than prevailing weather, starting in the
south , then shifting north toward KRDU/KRWI and KINT/KGSO. Brief
IFR visibilities, heavy rain, and gusty, variable winds are possible
within the isolated storms. Same set up again for after the storms
settle down with patchy low status and fog expected early Friday
morning.

Outlook: Widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast late week into the weekend. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions with the exception of early morning stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...CA