Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS62 KRAH 140004
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
804 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 155 PM Saturday...

1) Heat advisory conditions possible once again Sunday mainly from
the Triangle south and eastward.

2) Svr tstm risks today and Sunday - damaging wind gusts the primary
threat both days.
-Today: Marginal south and east of Raleigh.
-Sunday: Slt risk from the Triangle north and eastward and marginal
elsewhere across central NC.

3) Temperatures should fall back closer to normal to start the week,
increasing back well above normal by Thursday. Best widespread rain
chances come Friday with a frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 155 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Despite a weak boundary having moved through, the
airmass hasn`t really substantially changed and won`t until a more
potent cold front moves across central NC early Monday.  That said,
look for temps on Sunday to be very similar to today, as esp noted
by the experimental heat risk maps (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk)
showing little or no change from today to tomorrow, with level 3 and
some level 4 heat risk from the Triangle region south and eastward.
That`s where we have today`s heat advisory in effect, so odds look
good for another heat advisory for Sunday for the same locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

- Today`s SVR storm chances:  Guidance continues to suggest widely
scattered showers/tstms are possible primarily east of I-95 today
along and invof both the weak front that moved through earlier today
and the sea breeze.  Despite the lack of notable deep layer shear,
ML cape is abundant (primary east of the front) and coupled with
elevated dcape and noted boundaries nearby, can`t rule out an isold
gusty pulse tstm. However, as the day progresses, it looks like the
best instability may end up being pinned to our far SE zones.

- Sunday`s SVR storm chances: The combination of abundant heat,
moisture, and resulting instability, coupled with increases deep
layer shear with mid-level flow increasing ahead of a trough
deepening to our north, along with presence of the Piedmont trough
and/or the dissipating/retreating boundary that moved through today,
both of which will provide a convergent focus, there continues to be
a risk for isold to scattered strong to svr storms on Sunday across
central NC, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. Storm
may begin to fire up as early as 2 PM Sunday, then remaining
possible through the the rest of the day.  In addition to more
local/climo boundaries providing a focus, we`ll also be monitoring
for the possibility of a pre-frontal band of convection (pre-frontal
associated with the cold front to our west that`s progged to move
across early Monday) that may evolve well to our west during the
afternoon Sunday and then move across central NC during the evening
hours.  Either way, there are plenty of features that could support
isold to scattered strong to svr storms with damaging wind gusts the
primary hazard.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures should fall back closer to normal to
start the week, increasing back well above normal by Thursday. Best
widespread rain chances come Friday with a frontal passage.

After the cold frontal passage Sunday night/Monday morning, cooler
and drier air will move into the region. This should allow for high
temperatures to drop into the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday, and
further drop into the 80s everywhere on Tuesday. The front looks to
stall to our south on Monday on Tuesday, with a few models
suggesting that a weak low pressure system will form off of the
front and move to our south and east. This may allow for a few
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms in our southeast Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures should then warm each day with overall low
rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, however a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Highs look
to generally return to the lower 90s by Wednesday, and back into the
mid-to-upper 90s on Thursday. Rain chances will increase Friday as a
cold front looks to move through the region, however model
differences are still large in the timing and location of the front.
Despite the differences in timing, ensemble guidance is showing
probabilities of about 50-60% for greater than 0.25 inch of rain
from this frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions outside of convection should
prevail through this evening. Showers and storms continue to develop
with the nnwwd migrating sea breeze, stretching roughly from Sanford
to Smithfield to Rocky Mount as of 2340Z. KRWI and possibly KRDU may
still get a shower/storm during the next few hours, while KFAY has
been worked over already. Where showers/storms occurred today, some
low stratus and reduced vsbys are possible, most likely at KFAY,
possibly as far north and east as KRWI and KRDU depending on the
convective activity in the next few hours. High confidence showers
and storms will develop again Sun aft/eve, though exactly where and
if/when they may impact a specific terminal is less certain. Expect
the usual restrictions to accompany the convection, with gusts of 25-
40 kts, possibly higher.

Outlook: Convection should continue through the evening Sunday,
though coverage and intensity should wane with loss of heating. A
cold front should move across central NC Sun night/Mon, winds
shifting from swly to nwly in its wake. While diurnally driven
convection will be possible at all terminals Tue-Thu, best chances
will be in the south and east Tue/Wed and northwest on Thu.
Overnight into early morning sub-VFR cigs and mist cannot be ruled
out around any terminals that receive substantial rainfall from
afternoon convection.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002  KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926  KRDU: 97/1944  KFAY: 100/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015  KRDU: 75/2025  KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025  KRDU: 79/2022  KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022  KRDU: 78/2025  KFAY: 76/1926

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/LH
AVIATION...10/np
CLIMATE...RAH