Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

347
FXUS62 KRAH 051635
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1235 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 430 AM Saturday...

1) Showers and thunderstorms and rain-cooled air this afternoon will
provide localized relief from continued heat highlighted by a Heat
Advisory that remains in effect today for the srn Piedmont,
Sandhills, and srn and cntl Coastal Plain.

2) After the passage of the cold front by Sunday morning, a
shortwave trough may bring continued shower chances on Sunday, then
somewhat cooler and drier air will filter into central NC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 430 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorms and rain-cooled air this
afternoon will provide localized relief from continued heat
highlighted by a Heat Advisory that remains in effect today for the
srn Piedmont, Sandhills, and srn and cntl Coastal Plain.

Cyclonic, nwly flow aloft will prevail across the OH Valley and
middle Atlantic, between a slow-moving cyclone over the Canadian
Maritimes and a weakening/collapsing sub-tropical ridge over the srn
Appalachians. Within that nwly flow regime, a shortwave impulse now
over nrn IN/wrn Lwr MI, and embedded or slightly preceding MCV/MCS
over nwrn OH, will progress sewd and across the Virginias today and
nrn and nern NC through this evening. Weakly falling heights and
cooling through the mid-levels will result over cntl NC through 12Z
Sun. Some mesoscale enhanced/acceleration may also result within a
belt of otherwise 15-25 kts of mid-level northwesterlies over cntl
and nern NC later this afternoon-evening.

At the surface, a synoptic front stretched from near the ongoing MCS
from nrn IN and nwrn OH, esewd across wrn PA and s-cntl NJ. This
boundary will progress only slowly swwd and across the Virginias
tonight and into cntl NC early Sun. The front will be preceded by
both a pre-frontal trough and outflow segments stretching
discontinuously from Friday`s convection over cntl/ern NC nwwd to
the aforementioned MCS (and developing strong cold pool) that will
propagate away from the synoptic front through the morning and
possibly into the nrn Piedmont of NC by midday-early afternoon.

Each of the the surface boundaries noted above will serve as
possible foci for renewed convective development and/or diurnal
intensification of upstream convection, with strong daytime heating
into the 90s F once again. The most likely scenario will be for
initially widely scattered pulse/multi-cells to develop in-situ over
cntl NC along the pre-frontal trough at about the same time that the
upstream convection and outflow (and probably some degree of an
ongoing MCS), are expected to move into the nrn Piedmont. However,
it remains unclear if and how quickly that upstream MCS may
intensify over parts of cntl NC, given that instability will be
comparatively weaker over the nrn Piedmont versus the Sandhills and
srn/cntl Coastal Plain, owing to lower mean mixing ratios/surface
dewpoints there; and it may arrive there prior to peak diurnal
heating. And by the time it reaches the richer low-level moisture
and initially greater instability across srn zones, those areas may
have already been locally cooled and stabilized by convection that
may have developed in-situ along the pre-frontal trough. Damaging
wind gusts will pose the primary risk regardless, with that risk
greatest along sewd-propagating multicell clusters. Some transient
supercells and a risk for hail will be possible over the ne Piedmont
and nrn Coastal Plain, where effective shear will be locally
maximized immediately swd/swwd of the track of the MCV, and where
surface winds will probably have some nly component (and elongation
of hodographs in the lowest kilometer) poleward of the pre-frontal
trough and outflow.

It will otherwise remain dangerously hot today, especially across
srn zones that were not overturned and diabatically-cooled by
Friday`s convection; and no changes were made to the Heat Advisory
that remains in effect there from 11A to 8P.


KEY MESSAGE 2... After the passage of the cold front by Sunday
morning, a shortwave trough may bring continued shower chances on
Sunday, then somewhat cooler and drier air will filter into central
NC.

The cold front should be south of the region by Sunday morning.
However, model guidance is suggesting that some moisture will linger
in the region through the day on Sunday. Additionally, it appears
that a weak shortwave trough may move through the region sometime on
Sunday. This could allow for post-frontal rain to linger through the
day. Overall light rain showers are expected as minimal instability
should be in place in the post frontal regime, however a few rumbles
of thunder cannot be ruled out.

High temperatures should return to the 80s from Sunday through
Tuesday or Wednesday, before returning to the 90s by mid-to-late
week. The chance of rain during this period will be generally low
each day, with an isolated diurnal thunderstorm possible each
afternoon/evening especially late week as warming is occurring and
moisture is returning to the region. It looks like another cold
front may pass through central NC sometime late week, however
details are still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Saturday...

Of most immediate concern is the risk for sct to numerous
thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, some of which will
be capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts. The earlier
area of storms over the Ohio Valley has fractured as it tracked to
the SE and SSE, with western portion now moving SE into the NC mtns
while the eastern portion tracks E over E VA. But a residual weak
boundary now moving into NW portions of central NC should serve as
the focus for additional storms to develop and track SE and S
through the area from 18z to 00z, NNW to ESE. Have included a few-
hour period of tempo thunder in all TAFs following this timing.
Gusts over 35 kts will be possible in/near any storms, even well
away from storms due to outflow, and isolated 50+ kt gusts may occur
as well. Apart from brief MVFR/IFR conditions in any storms, VFR
conditions will prevail through much of this evening, however
starting near or shortly after midnight, widespread IFR cigs and
MVFR/IFR vsbys are expected to develop, first across the NE.
Coverage of these sub-VFR conditions will be highest 10z-12z, with a
gradual lift/dispersion from 13z through 16z Sun, and a slow trend
to VFR expected by the end of the TAF period (18z Sun). Away from
storms, prevailing surface winds mostly under 10 kts will be from
the W and NW today, shifting around to N and NE through Sun with
increasing gusts in the 10-15 kt range Sun.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, there is a low but non-zero chance for
lingering pockets of MVFR cigs into mid afternoon Sun, along with a
good chance for a little light rain through the afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail across central NC through
much of Thu with generally dry weather, although rain chances start
to ramp back up late Thu with an approaching cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Records within reach this forecast period:

Record High Temperatures:

September 5: KGSO:  97/1954 KRDU:  98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/LBH
AVIATION...Hartfield