Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

897
FXUS62 KRAH 271156
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
756 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 345 AM Friday...

* Low temperatures on Sunday nudged up slightly across the western
  Piedmont

* Lowered dewpoints on Saturday afternoon

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 345 AM Friday...

1) Scattered convection will accompany a cold front and pose a
conditional risk of an isolated instance of severe hail and/or wind
between 5 PM and 9 PM, after record heat today, followed by a higher
probability of a ~5-6 hour period of anafrontal, stratiform rain
early tonight.

2) Fire weather conditions remain a concern for today and especially
Saturday.

3) Widespread frost conditions likely Sunday morning with localized
freeze conditions possible.

4) A period of dry weather will return this weekend and continue
through mid week, resulting in a prolonged period of below-average
precipitation that will exacerbate drought conditions and sustain or
prolong the abundance of pollen in the air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered convection will accompany a cold front
and pose a conditional risk of an isolated instance of severe hail
and/or wind between 5 PM and 9 PM, after record heat today, followed
by a higher probability of a ~5-6 hour period of anafrontal,
stratiform rain early tonight.

Initially quasi-zonal flow evident in GOES-E water vapor satellite
and 00Z/27th upr air data over the CONUS mid-latitudes will undergo
amplification through 12Z Sat, as a couple of shortwave
perturbations now over ND and srn SK modestly amplify across the
Great Lakes and nrn Middle Atlantic. Associated, increasingly-
cyclonic flow over the Middle Atlantic will be preceded by a
convectively-amplified ribbon of mid-level vorticity accompanying a
large area of anafrontal precipitation and convection now stretching
from srn New England wswwd across the OH and mid MS Valleys and cntl
Plains, which will progress sewd and into the Carolinas and TN
Valley tonight. The wrn-most vorticity maxima within that mid-level
vorticity and moist axis, now over ern KS, is a minor shortwave
perturbation and formerly compact, closed cyclone that stalled near
the nrn Baja Peninsula on Tue, which is forecast to continue to
deamplify as it progresses ewd and across the srn Middle Atlantic
this afternoon-evening. During that time, 40-60 m/12hr mid-level
height falls and forcing for ascent may be regionally maximized over
VA/NC. Generally wly, 500 mb flow will also steadily strengthen over
cntl NC through that time, to between 40-60 kts (strongest north).
Lastly, an EML plume, centered in 00Z upr air data from the lwr OH
and mid MS Valleys from ILN to SGF, will have advected ewd and will
be in place over the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas this morning
(likely to be well-sampled in 12Z GSO and RNK RAOB data). A related
plume of steep, ~7-7.5C/km mid-level level lapse rates will reside
over cntl NC ahead of the features noted above and probably cap the
environment to deep convective development until focused, frontal
forcing arrives and overcomes diurnally-weakening CINH late this
afternoon.

At the surface, a couple of closely-spaced cold fronts along/within
the aforementioned precipitation band will progress ssewd/swd, with
the lead of which likely to progress swd and across cntl NC between
21-23Z across far nrn zones and ~03-04Z across srn ones. The front
will supplant preceding Bermuda high pressure and an unseasonably
warm and seasonably moist airmass over cntl NC characterized by
afternoon temperatures and dewpoints of ~85-90F and mid-upr 50sF,
respectively. Weak instability, mostly between 250-750 J/kg, will
likely be realized with heating of that seasonably moist air and
beneath the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered
convection will likely develop along the front; and an isolated cell
or two may deepen sufficiently to interact with the aforementioned
strong mid-level flow and vertical shear that will be characterized
by relatively long and straight hodographs through the mid/upr-
levels. A conditional risk of hail and/or locally damaging wind
gusts would result, with the former supported by mid-level rotation
and steep mid-level lapse rates and the latter supported by steep
low-level lapse rates and 20-25 degree surface dewpoint depressions.
That convection should be quickly undercut by the swd-advancing
surface cold front this evening, with following anafrontal,
stratiform rain and much cooler and gusty nly/nnely surface winds
that will develop in the pos-frontal regime tonight. Storm total
rainfall amounts are expected to range from around a tenth of an
inch over the srn Piedmont to a quarter to half inch elsewhere, and
with locally higher amounts where convection occurs and tracks.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Fire weather conditions remain a concern for today
and especially Saturday.

Minimum relative humidity values today will drop into the 30-40%
range this afternoon ahead of any southward advancing precipitation.
In addition, wind gusts outside of convection will generally range
between 15 and 20 mph with a few stronger gusts. Although these
conditions do not support typical fire weather conditions/criteria,
the combination of unseasonably warm temperatures, with notable
dryness within 100-hr fuels may provide for some adverse fire
weather conditions today. This will be further complicated and
especially hazardous around any ongoing fires by an abrupt wind
shift from the cold front, or convective outflow, as it shifts south
through the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

The degree and location of wetting rain that occurs this afternoon
and tonight will modulate fire weather concerns for Saturday. Still,
surface dewpoints will drop into the teens to around 20 supporting
RH values that will bottom out between 15 and 25% during the
afternoon. Wind gusts may be a limiting factor with wind gusts
peaking at around 20 mph, although the strongest and most persistent
gusts will be across the southeastern and eastern areas where RH
values will tend to be higher.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Widespread frost conditions likely Sunday morning
with localized freeze conditions possible.

A chilly but modifying 1036mb Canadian high pressure system will
shift southeast into our region and setup across eastern NC and VA
around daybreak Sunday morning. Low level thickness values will
modify from Saturday and range between 1305 to 1320m on Sunday
morning. Latest guidance suggests that the surface high may be
centered a little further east which could curtail the previously
expected ideal radiational conditions across the Piedmont where
profiles note the potential for a little mixing. Adjusted lows
downward a bit from the NBM into the 29 to 35 range. These
temperatures would be especially hazardous to any early budding
plants/vegetation that are sensitive to the cold. The Frost/Freeze
program for central NC will begin the morning of April 1st, at which
time we will resume the issuance of Frost Advisories, Freeze
Watches/Warnings. Until then, will continue to highlight this risk
in the HWO and gridded weather forecast.


KEY MESSAGE 4... A period of dry weather will return this weekend
and continue through mid week resulting in a prolonged period of
below-average precipitation exasperating drought conditions and
sustaining or prolonging the abundance of pollen in the air.

Mid-level ridging aloft and a surface high that moves east from the
OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic to the western Atlantic will result in
dry weather from this weekend through at least Tuesday or Wednesday.
D2 (Severe Drought) conditions already cover most of central NC, and
the lack of rainfall may worsen those conditions further, especially
with the very warm temperatures expected next week. Fire weather may
also be a concern even if RH`s don`t reach criteria, due to the very
dry antecedent conditions and breezy SW winds each day from Monday
through Wednesday. Some relief from the dryness may arrive by late
week, but this will depend on the positioning of frontal systems.
There is a better signal that a potentially wetter pattern may
arrive during the Easter weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 AM Friday...

A wswly low-level jet will favor the maintenance of low-level wind
shear throughout cntl NC until the nocturnal inversion breaks with
daytime heating by ~14Z. Wswly surface winds will subsequently
strengthen and become gusty to around 20 kts through the afternoon.
A strong cold front will meanwhile approach from the north and surge
swd and across cntl NC between 21Z-03Z. The cold front, and possibly
a pre-frontal/lee trough, will be accompanied by scattered
convection that may produce strong and gusty surface winds and hail
before being quickly undercut by the cold front and weakening.
Mostly MVFR ceilings, stratiform rain, and also strong and gusty nly
to nnely surface winds, will follow in the post-frontal regime this
evening/early tonight. A band of MVFR ceilings may linger from near
RDU to FAY and RWI Sat morning, before clearing shortly after 12Z
Sat.

Outlook: Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible amid a return
flow regime, and associated increase in low-level moisture over cntl
NC, by Tue morning.

&&

Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946

March 31:
KFAY: 90/1910

April 1:
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010

April 2:
KFAY: 90/1974


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27:
KFAY: 65/1949

April 1:
KGSO: 63/2016

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Blaes/Danco
AVIATION...MWS