Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS62 KRAH 300632
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM Monday...

*  Slightly lower precip chances Wed/Thu, otherwise no significant
   changes to earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM Monday...

1) An increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban
remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until
further notice.

2) Increasing temperatures through mid-week with limited, diurnal
rain chances each afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday. A
better chance for widespread rain looks possible Sunday into Monday
ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An increased fire danger continues today. A
statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open
outdoor burning until further notice.

NC forestry officials remain very concerned about the high risk for
dangerous fire weather conditions today. The ongoing drought and
paucity of rainfall in the last 90 days is contributing to very dry
fuels and tree litter, and minimum RH is expected to be around 35-
40% across all of central NC today, with frequent gusts in the 15-25
mph range. These factors all suggest the potential for explosive
fire growth and spread today, and a burn ban remains in effect until
further notice. Looking ahead to Tue, the increased fire danger may
persist given that frequent gusts to 15-25 mph will again be
possible, although RH values may be about 5% higher, which could
curb the threat slightly. Nevertheless, fuels will remain very dry,
and another statement may be needed for Tue.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing temperatures through mid-week with
limited, diurnal rain chances each afternoon from Wednesday through
Saturday. A better chance for widespread rain looks possible Sunday
into Monday ahead of a cold front.

Anomalous mid-level ridging over the central US will shift east and
amplify across the east coast through late week. Flow aloft will
largely remain wnwly through Tuesday promoting dry conditions but
warming temperatures into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

For Wednesday through Saturday, guidance has come into better
agreement keeping a sfc cold front and associated upper forcing well
to our north. However, given the persistent swly flow aloft, can`t
rule out isolated to scattered diurnal convection with highest
chances likely across the west and central Piedmont via orographic
convection rolling off the mountains and/or along sfc troughing.
Highs over this period will also remain warm in the mid 80s through
this period.

Better chances for widespread rain and a cool down may happen Sunday
into Monday as guidance is hinting at a potentially strong cold
front approaching/moving through central NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are likely to persist at central NC terminals for the
next 24 hours, although we`ll see a mix of mostly sct stratocu based
at 4000-6500 ft AGL topped by sct-bkn mid clouds and a veil of high
clouds. INT/GSO have a good chance for a 4000-6500 ft AGL cig
between the TAF start time (06z) and 13z, but the highest overall
cloud cover is expected to be between 13z and 21z today. There is a
chance for low-end low level wind shear conditions early this
morning (06z-12z) at INT/GSO, as models indicate low level (900-1200
ft AGL) jetting around 25-35 kt from the SW mainly over the NW
Piedmont up into VA. Winds aloft will be a little lighter at other
terminals, making the LLWS potential lower. Surface winds at all
sites will be from the SW at 6-10 kts through 13z, then increasing
to 10-15 kts gusting to 15-25 kts until 22z, when they will decrease
to under 10 kts.

Looking beyond 06z Tue, there is a chance for sub-VFR fog or shallow
stratus 08z-12z Tue morning, along with a chance for LLWS mainly at
the northern terminals. A few showers are possible near INT/GSO Tue
afternoon, then we`ll have a higher chance of showers and perhaps an
isolated storm Wed afternoon at INT/GSO/RDU, with a slight chance at
FAY/RWI. Scattered afternoon showers are then possible areawide Thu
and Fri. Patchy early-morning fog can`t be ruled out Wed-Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Luchetti
AVIATION...Hartfield