Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS62 KRAH 150646
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
246 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Little to no changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM Friday...

1) Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection
during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited
diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid
next week

The flow aloft will undergo amplification during the latter half of
the weekend into early next week, as a Gulf of AK trough progresses
inland and digs across the Great Basin and cntl Rockies. Downstream
and through the same time, a mid-level, sub-tropical high will
progress from the lwr MS Valley this morning to along or just off
the srn Middle Atlantic coast, while strengthening several
decameters and probably exceeding the max moving average and daily
record 700 mb heights at GSO and MHX, by Mon. An EML plume sampled
by 00Z RAOBs over the srn Plains and lwr MS Valley last evening will
advect around the high and over cntl NC Sun-Sun night, when mid-
level lapse rates are forecast to maximize around 8 C/km. Large
model spread in the pattern aloft becomes evident in both
deterministic and ensemble guidance mid to late next week, with
associated lower than average forecast confidence.

At the surface, and beneath and downstream of the sub-tropical high
and surrounding ridge aloft, high pressure will extend from near
Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a trough will extend in
the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a sea breeze will
probably move through the entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-
evening. There may be sufficient convection within the lee trough on
Wed to force a composite outflow boundary into cntl NC by Wed night,
while a synoptic cold front will likely follow and settle into the
region on Thu.

Warm and seasonably moist sswly/swly flow around the Bermuda high
and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the
lwr 90s and with mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s Sun-Wed, but
with heat index values generally at or slightly below the ambient
air temperature. Forcing for ascent will remain weak while under the
dominating influence of the sub-tropical ridge through at least Tue,
with surface convergence along the lee/Piedmont trough and also
possibly along the sea breeze providing the only apparent forcing
mechanisms for isolated, diurnal convection during that time. Modest
strengthening of swly flow aloft and weak height falls on the wrn
periphery of the sub-tropical high by Wed-Thu should allow for an
increase in shower/storm chances by late Wed into and especially
Thu, as the aforementioned outflow and synoptic cold front likely
settle into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 105 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions are forecast. With high pressure
in control of the local weather, just some passing high clouds will
be possible. Light northwest wind overnight will back to the
southwest this afternoon.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are forecast into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...Green