Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

656
FXUS62 KRAH 131031
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 630 AM Friday...

updated with the latest TAF discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Friday...

1) Another strong cold front will shift across the region Monday and
bring a risk for severe weather in the Coastal Plain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another strong cold front will shift across the
region Monday and bring a risk for severe weather in the Coastal
Plain.

Overall there is reasonably good confidence in the evolution of the
mid/upper level pattern within the medium range. A more highly
amplified system is expected to develop over the northern/central
CONUS Sun and progress eastward into the Great Lakes into the TN
Valley by Mon. At the surface this will result in a stationary
boundary over the Carolinas to lift northward as a warm front Sun
into Sun evening as surface high pressure strengthens off the
Northeast coast while at the same time low pressure deepens over the
OH Valley. Strengthening southwesterly flow will result in a narrow
window of moisture return into the region ahead of yet another
strong cold frontal passage.

The timing of the frontal passage continues to fluctuate by 3-6hrs
with each cycle of deterministic guidance. We do appear to be
narrowing in on a window from 18z to 06z from the fropa, with
prefrontal convection as early as 15z until as late as 06z. An added
complication appears to be a signal for a morning stratus layer,
especially in the initially upslope region into the Piedmont.
Instability still appears weak overall (500 J/kg or less and
maximized over the Coastal Plain and Sandhills) and results in a
highly conditional high-shear, low-cape setup. Mostly straight
hodographs with 40-60 kts of deep layer shear oriented parallel to
the cold front will favor strong to severe winds to be the primary
severe hazard if a severe threat were to develop. Low-level shear of
> 20 kts and 0-1 SRH of > 100 m2/s2 also suggests a low-end tornado
threat can`t be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail across much of central NC through the
12Z TAF period, with the primary concern through early this morning
with very patchy dense fog mainly across the Coastal Plain. Current
10z observations show isolated areas of fog developing from around
Roanoke Rapids southward. This may briefly impact the eastern
terminals, particularly KRWI and surrounding areas of KRDU through
the early morning hours. Any fog that develops will lift and
dissipate quickly after sunrise, returning conditions to widespread
VFR. After sunrise, increasing south to southwest winds will develop
as mixing strengthens. Winds will increase late morning into the
afternoon with sustained speeds around 10-15 kt and gusts generally
20-30 kts, strongest across the Triad terminals (KGSO/KINT).

In addition, model soundings and guidance suggest a
strengthening low-level jet tonight into early Saturday
morning. This may result in a period of low-level wind shear
possible at all terminals late tonight through early Saturday,
as winds around 1.52 kft increase to around 3545 kt while surface
winds remain lighter. Did not add to the this mornings TAF package
but will likely add to the next TAF package with more model
data/consistency.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate Saturday with
sub-VFR conditions returning as early as Sunday evening. Gusty
winds are also expected Sunday afternoon into Monday as the next
weather system moves across the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...CA