Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS62 KRAH 181750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory issued for Cumberland and Sampson counties on
  Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

1) Heat continues across the area, with a heat advisory for much of
the area this afternoon, and a smaller heat advisory for Wednesday
afternoon.

2) Another hot day Thursday, before returning closer to normal.
Rain/thunderstorm chances increase Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat continues across the area, with a heat
advisory for much of the area this afternoon, and a smaller heat
advisory for Wednesday afternoon.

While high temperatures this afternoon should be a degree or two
less than yesterday, heat indices this afternoon are still
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees, and those values will likely
peak in a few hours. Did not make any changes to the heat advisory
for today. High temperatures on Wednesday should be another couple
degrees cooler, along with a slight reduction in dewpoints. However,
the experimental HeatRisk product still shows extreme (level 4 of 4)
risk across much of Cumberland and Sampson counties, and even though
only a portion of Sampson county is forecast to reach the heat
advisory criteria of a heat index of 105 degrees, will issue a heat
advisory for these two counties considering the cumulative effect of
heat on those who are sensitive to it. In general, most locations
should have their heat index remain below 100 degrees on Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Another hot day Thursday, before returning closer
to normal. Rain/thunderstorm chances increase Thursday through
Saturday.

An upper level trough will approach the region on Thursday. It
appears that an associated cold front will stall over or around the
region, bringing shower and storm chances each day Thursday through
Saturday night. Each afternoon and evening, the rain chances will be
aided by a few mid level shortwave troughs moving through the
region. A few strong to severe storms may be possible on Thursday
associated with this. Early looks from the few CAMs that go out far
enough are suggesting that MLCAPE values should be around 1500-2500
J/kg Thursday afternoon in the eastern half of the CWA, with bulk
shear values peaking around 20-30 kts. This should be sufficient for
a few stronger cells to form and sustain over the region Thursday
afternoon and evening, with the best chance in the east. Additional
strong to severe storms may be possible through the weekend
depending on the timing of expected shower/thunderstorm development
due to the timing of the shortwave troughs. However, Friday and
Saturday should have more widespread periods of potentially heavy
rain as PWs should increase to around 2 in. The trough axis should
shift eastward Sunday into Monday, bringing drier air to the region
and lessening rain chances at the start of the work week.

In terms of temperatures, Thursday will be the last remaining much
above average day. As of now, expect highs in the low 90s north to
upper 90s south, with heat indices potentially reaching 105-107.
These values may be too high as cloud cover, rain, and dewpoints
mixing out further could bring down temperatures and the heat index.
Friday through early week, high temperatures look to generally be in
the 80s to the low 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: There is a minimal chance of flight restrictions over
the next 24 hours. The potential for a thunderstorm still appears to
be meager at RDU/RWI, but have maintained the TEMPO groups for TSRA
at those sites. Confidence was too low to maintain the TEMPO group
at FAY. While some guidance is maintaining the potential for
visibility restrictions at RDU and RWI overnight, considering there
has been no change in airmass, would prefer to keep a persistence
forecast, but will maintain the inherited TEMPO group for MVFR fog
at RWI. The wind will be light out of the northwest this afternoon,
although INT has had gusts the last two hours, and after sunset the
wind should veer to the northeast.

Outlook: FAY will be the only site with a chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon. Diurnally driven storms should then expand in
coverage, with scattered coverage everywhere on Thursday, widespread
coverage Friday/Saturday, then isolated coverage on Sunday. The
potential for any restrictions around dawn will be heavily
correlated to whether any precipitation has fallen the previous day.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988
August 20: KFAY: 102/2007


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021
August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940
August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005
August 22: KFAY: 75/2018


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ026>028-040>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Helock
AVIATION...Green