Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS62 KRAH 041940
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* This afternoon`s high temperatures continue to trend slightly
  lower.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

1) This afternoon will likely be the day with the greatest shower
and thunderstorm coverage out of the next seven days. There are
threats for both excessive rainfall as well as damaging wind gusts.

2) Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue from Wednesday through Friday, mainly each afternoon
through evening. Coverage may become more isolated this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon will likely be the day with the
greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage out of the next seven
days. There are threats for both excessive rainfall as well as
damaging wind gusts.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly expand in
coverage from east to west. Nearly all locations are forecast to
receive at least some minimal precipitation. The wind through the
vertical column of the atmosphere is minimal, which means both that
it will be hard for storms to become organized for any sort of
widespread severe potential in addition to showers/storms moving
slowly. The combination of slow moving showers/storms and very moist
air (precipitable water values >= 2 inches) is the reason that the
entire forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall. It is possible that a stationary front,
extending generally from Roanoke Rapids to Wadesboro, could serve as
a focus for showers. In addition, there is a marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk for severe weather this afternoon across western counties,
primarily driven by a closed upper low over Georgia. Instability
values should be slightly higher closer to the low, and while there
is a high overcast sky across much of the region, the low could help
trigger some stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will begin to diminish around sunset, with minimal showers occurring
after midnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue from Wednesday through Friday, mainly each
afternoon through evening. Coverage may become more isolated this
weekend into early next week.

The closed mid/upper low over GA will weaken and devolve into an
open wave over the central/southern Appalachians on Wednesday, then
a flat shear axis by late week as it gets absorbed by the broad
trough over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile the subtropical high over the
Western Atlantic will inch its way westward, getting closer to the
Mid-Atlantic coast each day. Thus shower and storm coverage should
generally be less compared to today, mostly isolated to scattered in
nature, with the greatest coverage over the NW (in closest proximity
to the trough) and perhaps a secondary maximum in the SE (in closest
proximity to the sea breeze). Still, deep and persistent SSW flow
will continue to result in PW values about 100-125% of normal and
moderate instability. Thus localized spots could have rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr, and WPC has at least part if not most of central NC in a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall each day.

The Great Lakes trough will begin to shift east and flatten this
weekend into early next week, as the subtropical high extends
farther west to the Southeast US coast. This will result in more
zonal flow across the Eastern US and possibly a bit lower convective
chances, but there will still be some moisture and instability
around. So POPs are mainly low chance this weekend and slight by
early next week.

High temperatures will be mainly in the mid-to-upper-80s through
this weekend, except perhaps some lower-90s in the far south.
Forecast highs increase to lower-to-mid-90s early next week, and
with continued humid conditions, heat indices in the lower-100s will
be possible across the south and east.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: Showers and thunderstorms will spread from east to west
this afternoon. As of early afternoon, thunderstorm coverage has
been minimal, but coverage should increase through the afternoon. No
particular confidence in which terminals may have thunderstorms, but
they will be possible at any site and will bring the potential for
reduced cig/vis. Coverage of showers should begin to wane around
sunset, with mostly dry conditions by midnight.

The bulk of the afternoon should have MVFR ceilings, although
RDU/RWI have been VFR through the morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings will
begin to expand into INT/GSO/RDU by 04-06Z. Meanwhile, to the east
at FAY and RWI, flight restrictions will be conditional based on
whether cloud cover is high enough to produce ceilings - it appears
that visibilities should remain VFR at these sites, but if ceilings
are able to form late tonight, they would likely be IFR. Flight
conditions should rise back to MVFR at all terminals except FAY
Wednesday morning, which will likely rise to VFR.

The wind will be out of the east around 5-10 kt this afternoon,
dropping to 5 kt tonight and eventually veering to the south
Wednesday morning.

Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms can be expected
each day, although coverage will be less than today. Flight
restrictions will be possible late each night into the next morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/Green
AVIATION...Green