Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS62 KRAH 272356
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
756 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from the earlier forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

1) A slow moving front will bring the potential for both damaging
wind gusts and severe thunderstorms this afternoon through Saturday.

2) Above normal temperatures to start the month of September.

$$

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving front will bring the potential for
both damaging wind gusts and severe thunderstorms this afternoon
through Saturday.

A cold front currently along the Appalachian Mountains will slide
southeast over the next couple of days. While scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, coverage in thunderstorms
will peak on Friday, then decrease Saturday and especially into
Sunday. There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) threat for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily northwest of I-85. The
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms expands across the entire
forecast area for Friday, with the threat both days coming from
damaging wind gusts. In addition, there is a risk for excessive
rainfall - a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) everywhere this afternoon,
marginal/slight (level 2 of 4) risk Friday (marginal west of US-1,
slight east of US-1), and a marginal risk nearly everywhere on
Saturday. Storm motion will be slow, and this will allow for the
potential that showers and storms will repeatedly move over the same
location. Effective wind shear will be at or below 30 kt, limiting
the amount of organization that will occur with the thunderstorms
that develop.

As of 2pm, the bulk of the showers so far today had been across the
western half of the forecast area, although activity is expected to
increase during the afternoon in southern counties. On Friday, the
greatest chance for rain (~60%) should be southeast of the I-85
corridor. Different ensembles are depicting an axis of heavier
rainfall in slightly different locations Friday afternoon, likely
somewhere along or east of the US-1 corridor. However, both the HREF
and REFS solutions generally fall into the area of slight risk of
excessive rainfall, so this is consistent.  The bulk of the activity
shifts to the I-95 corridor for Saturday afternoon, with just an
isolated shower/storm along I-95 Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures to start the month of
September.

Aloft, the trough will weaken as it shifts ewd on Sat, with the
ridge building into the region Sun through mid-week. The guidance
varies with the overall location and orientation of the high from
Sun onward, which could impact the heating and convection potential.
At the surface, a pressure trough may remain in place across the
area through mid-week, with high pressure offshore and over the
Appalachians. Low level thicknesses should generally be in the 1405m
to 1420m range across the area. Temperatures should be near normal
on Sat, then moderate through mid-week, with highs in the low to mid
90s (8-12 degrees above normal) and lows in the low to mid 70s to
start the month of September.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Thursday...

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are still slowly making
their way through central NC. Over the next several hours they
should start to dissipate and shouldn`t cause any additional
restrictions at any of the TAF sites. Tonight, another round of low
stratus/fog looks likely to impact all of central NC. The best
chance for sustained LIFR restrictions looks to be in western
portions of the region (GSO/INT), however LIFR conditions will
remain possible further east, but perhaps in more patchy areas.
Restrictions look to lift/scatter out late morning, however some
guidance does suggest restrictions sustaining for most of the day,
especially at FAY and RWI. Rain and thunderstorm chances will return
again Friday afternoon and evening, perhaps even into the night.
Just added PROB30s at INT/GSO tomorrow evening as the line of
showers should reach the other sites around or after 00Z, however it
will be possible for additional shower and thunderstorm chances at
any site earlier in the afternoon.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to persist
after 00Z Saturday, perhaps through the nighttime hours and into
Saturday morning. There will be another possible round of
showers/thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Additionally, low stratus
and/or fog may develop and cause sub-VFR restrictions again the next
several mornings.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/10
AVIATION...LH