Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS62 KRAH 092349
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
749 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Risk for excessive rain shifting more toward Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

1) Extended period of very warm to hot temperatures, with Thursday
and Friday expected to be the hottest.

2) Marginal risk for excessive rain (flash flooding) on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Extended period of very warm to hot temperatures,
with Thursday and Friday expected to be the hottest.

Central NC is expected to be in a pattern of above normal
temperatures over the next week. This afternoon through Friday, high
pressure located off the coast will bring southerly flow and warm,
moist air to the region. Highs this afternoon should remain in the
upper 80s, rising to the low/mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. With
increasing dew points each day, heat indices should be the highest
on Friday, potentially reaching the low 100s. A weak cold front
looks to dissipate over the region on Saturday. This does not appear
to drop temperatures too much, with temperatures Sunday through mid-
week remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s.


2) Marginal risk for excessive rain (flash flooding) on Saturday.

The cold front currently across the Great Lakes and Midwest regions
will gradually move toward the Carolinas through the week then begin
to move across our area on Saturday.  While PoPs (showers/tstms)
will begin to increase on Friday as the front gets closer, the
highest PoPs and thus best chance for shower/tstms with occasional
heavy downpours will occur on Saturday, particularly during the
afternoon and evening.  Day 4 ERO indicates a marginal risk for
flash flooding across all of central NC given abundant pre-frontal
moisture advection and risk for cell training.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

Shallow moisture return near and west of FAY may bring the risk for
SCT/BKN IFR to LIFR cigs or fog to FAY. Probability of occurrence is
and has remained around 25% chance between 10 and 14z, which is too
low to include in the 00z TAFs at this time, but may be included in
the 06z TAFs. Otherwise, a shallow inversion and strengthening LLJ
around 1,000 ft may result in marginal LLWS tonight, strongest at
INT/GSO. Lack of meaningful wind direction change and marginal
magnitudes of 25 to 35 kts and sustained 5-10 kts at the surface
precludes the need to mention LLWS in the 00z TAFs.

Outlook: A cold front will slowly work its way south from VA and
potentially into NC Fri into Fri night. This boundary will likely be
a focus for convection, but also bring a risk for post-frontal sub-
VFR cigs Sat morning. An approaching disturbance from the TN Valley
and Deep South will bring a chance for more scattered to widespread
showers/storms on Sat that may continue into early overnight period.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/LH
AVIATION...AS