Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS62 KRAH 010009
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
808 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion through Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Friday...

1) Waves of diurnally-maximized convection, especially Sun-Mon, will
accompany a slow-moving mid/upr-level trough and preceding, deeply
moist sswly flow through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Waves of diurnally-maximized convection, especially
Sun-Mon, will accompany a slow-moving mid/upr-level trough and
preceding, deeply moist sswly flow through the middle of next week.

A positively-tilted mid/upper trough will approach from the OH/TN
Valleys this weekend. Preceding sswly, and deep moisture
characterized by PW values of 2-2.5 inches and 125-150% of normal,
will overspread cntl NC Sun-Mon, then probably linger especially
over ern zones through mid-week. Despite widespread cloud cover,
high temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 70s should still
allow for weak to moderate instability to develop. And by Monday,
embedded upper impulses and possible upper divergence from a jet
over the Appalachians may provide some forcing for ascent. All of
these ingredients should result in waves of showers and storms as
early as Sun morning over the wrn Piedmont and Sun afternoon through
at least Mon-Mon night otherwise and elsewhere. The pattern will
favor marginal risks of both excessive rain and severe, especially
Sun-Mon.

The trough will lift NE and deamplify from Tuesday onward, but
continued moist SW flow should result in above-normal shower and
storm chances through much of the workweek, albeit gradually
decreasing each day. This will keep temperatures in check with highs
mostly in the 80s.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 808 PM Friday...

VFR conditions are expected to largely dominate the forecast period.
Mid and high clouds will stream in tonight and tomorrow, along with
some high-base VFR clouds in the 5-10 kft range. Some recent model
guidance suggests that as low-level moisture starts to return, some
MVFR stratus could impact GSO/INT Saturday morning in the 11z to 15z
time period. Confidence on this is low at the moment so left out of
the latest TAF issuance, but this may need to be introduced in
subsequent updates. A better chance of stratus occurs Sunday morning
as low-level moisture return is greater. Some gusts out of the south
are expected Saturday afternoon, highest across the west (GSO/INT in
the 18-22 kt range.

Outlook: Increasing and deepening low-level moisture accompanying a
warm frontal passage will favor increasing chances of low stratus
Sun morning, especially over the wrn Piedmont (INT/GSO). Waves of
diurnally-maximized convection, especially Sun-Mon, but with
lingering above average chances through the middle of next week,
will accompany the slow approach and passage of a mid/upr-level
trough.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/JD
AVIATION...Kren/MWS