Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

933
FXUS62 KRAH 212012
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
312 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 312 PM Wednesday...

* Increased rain shower chances Thursday and Friday.
* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm continues to
  increase.
* Continued high confidence in bitterly cold temperatures from early
  Saturday through early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 312 PM Wednesday...

1) Cold and dry weather today, with moderating temperatures on
Thursday ahead of the next system.

2) Scattered showers on Friday as a frontal boundary stalls across
the region.

3) A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Piedmont and
portions of the central and northern Coastal Plain. This is due to
confidence increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain
Saturday into Sunday.

4) Extremely cold temperatures and dry conditions are expected
behind the front early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 312 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold and dry weather today, with moderating temperatures on
Thursday ahead of the next system.

Cold high pressure anchored across the Mid-Atlantic region today and
will result in dry weather and cooler temperatures. High
temperatures today will be in the mid-upper 40s to low 50s.Lows
overnight will range from the low to mid 30s with generally all
areas expected to stay above freezing. A weak frontal boundary will
move across the region early Thursday resulting in a few isolated
showers mainly across the south and east. With temperatures above
freezing Thursdays precip will be all liquid. Cloud coverage should
scatter out mid day with temperatures expected to warm into the mid
50s north to near 60 degrees in the south. Lows Thursday night will
be above freezing in the low to mid 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Scattered showers on Friday as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region.

A frontal boundary will stall across the region resulting in
isolated to scattered showers mainly across the southern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s north and
low 50s across the south and east. Amounts are supposed to be light
with a range of trace to a tenth. All precip is expected to be
liquid during the day/afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the
Piedmont and portions of the central and northern Coastal Plain.
This is due to confidence increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and
freezing rain Saturday into Sunday.

Confidence is increasing in a Miller B low track bringing widespread
snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the region. All of the 12Z LREF
clusters are showing precipitation across the region this weekend.
With very cold high pressure moving into the region after the
passage of an Arctic cold front, wintry precipitation types will be
likely to occur. During the day on Saturday, an inverted trough will
set up over the southeast US, with a CAD setup over central NC due
to the high pressure funneling cold air into the region. By Sunday
morning, low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf,
eventually dissipating over the Appalachian mountains. At the same
time, a low will form off the coast of the Carolinas and move north,
setting up the Miller B pattern.

During this type of pattern, multiple precipitation types are
likely. While we will be cold at the surface, sleet and freezing
rain are looking increasingly likely as warming trends are being
shown at around 850mb. The latest cluster analysis from the 12Z LREF
shows that the majority of the solutions indicate a warm nose making
its way well inland, perhaps as far west as the NW Piedmont. The
thickness and strength of this warm layer will determine what exact
precipitation type will occur at any given location. While many
locations may start off seeing snow on Saturday morning, a
changeover from snow to sleet and/or freezing rain will remain
possible everywhere Saturday afternoon through the day on Sunday.
Precipitation is expected to move out of the region Monday morning.
Regardless of type, whatever does fall/accrue could be significant
and may have lingering effects well into the next work week. Thus, a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Saturday afternoon through
Monday afternoon for the Piedmont and portions of the central and
northern Coastal Plain.



KEY MESSAGE 4... Extremely cold temperatures and dry conditions are
expected behind the front early next week.

Extremely cold temperatures and dry weather are expected behind the
exiting winter storm early next week. Arctic surface high pressure
will build into the area early next week, then settle over the
region. This will yield low temps bottoming out in the single digits
to low teens by Tuesday morning with wind chill values near zero to
the single digits. High temperatures are expected to be in the 30s
early to mid next week as well. Thus, much below normal temperatures
are expected for an extended time early to mid next week and a Cold
Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch and/or Warning may be needed
during this time frame.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue for the
24 hour TAF period. Some mid-high level clouds will stream in from
the southwest this afternoon into tonight. Winds will generally be
out of the southwest today, in the 08-12 kt range, with possibly
some gusts in the 16-20 kt range during the afternoon at
KGSO/KINT/KRDU. Winds will become light and variable overnight, with
westerly winds in the 5 to 8 kt range during the mid to late morning
Thursday. Also, marginal LLWS may develop at the northern TAF sites
after 00Z/tonight as a low-level jet develops across the mid-
Atlantic overnight.

Outlook: Expect generally VFR conditions will prevail through
Thursday night (light rain may be possible Thursday afternoon, but
generally should be dry for much of this period). This weekend,
confidence continues to increase in a potential winter storm, which
will likely bring wintry precipitation and associated sub-VFR
conditions Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday,
before VFR and dry conditions return.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/LH/BSD
Aviation...BSD/Badgett