Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KRAH 272317
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
618 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...

* Confidence continues to increase for the potential development of a
  coastal low which will bring a period of snow and bitter cold to
  central NC sometime between Friday night and Sunday, though
  details on exact timing, amounts, and impacts remain uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

1) Very cold Arctic air will stick around across central NC through
the weekend, with much colder-than-normal temperatures, freezing
daytime highs on Saturday, and dangerously cold wind chills near or
below zero from Friday night into Sunday morning.

2) Confidence is increasing in the potential for a coastal low to
bring a period of snow and bitter cold to central NC sometime
between Friday night and Sunday, though details on timing, amounts,
and impacts remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Very cold Arctic air will stick around across central
NC through the weekend, with much colder-than-normal temperatures,
freezing daytime highs on Saturday, and dangerously cold wind chills
near or below zero from Friday night into Sunday morning.

A prolonged stretch of Arctic cold air will persist across central
NC through the week and into the weekend, with temperatures running
1530F below normal. Highs will struggle to reach the upper 30s to
low 40s most days, while lows fall into the teens and low 20s each
night. Bitterly cold morning wind chills will be in the single
digits to teens most days, with the coldest conditions likely Friday
night into Sunday morning when wind chills could dip near or below
zero. The coldest day in the forecast is expected to be Saturday
with highs in the low to mid 20s CWA wide. This pattern is being
driven by persistent longwave troughing over the eastern US allowing
repeated Arctic high pressure systems building southeastward into
the Mid-Atlantic through the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in the potential for a
coastal low to bring a period of snow and bitter cold to central NC
sometime between Friday night and Sunday, though details on timing,
amounts, and impacts remain uncertain.

Medium-range guidance and ensembles continue to signal the
development of a very favorable synoptic pattern for a coastal low
developing late this week into the weekend. A mid/upper level trough
will dive southward across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
before cutting off just west of the Appalachian mountains.  This
would support a surface low developing along the Gulf shore, then
sweeping across northern Florida, and deepen off the Carolina coast
on Saturday bringing precipitation to Central NC.

Recent model trends favor a slightly farther west track of the upper
low and surface cyclone, which has increased chances for snow inland
across central NC. With the Arctic air mass already in place, and
forecast soundings showing no warm nose aloft, precipitation would
fall primarily as snow, with no sleet or freezing rain mixing in at
this time. As the upper low moves across the region Saturday into
Sunday northerly flow should help keep the cold air across central
NC through the weekend during the precipitation.

While this Miller-A storm setup is one of the more favorable for
snowfall across the area, significant accumulations are not
guaranteed. Snowfall amounts will depend heavily on the location,
timing, and interaction of the northern and southern stream flow.
Another major factor in play is the location and proximity of the
coastal low offshore.

At this time, confidence is highest for frigid temperatures over the
weekend mixed with a chance of wintry precipitation as early as
Friday night through Sunday morning. However, it is too early to
pinpoint where the heavier snowfall will fall and where the narrow
deformation band would be most likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 618 PM Tuesday...

Mostly clear skies and light winds forecast through the TAF period.
Now that the afternoon gustiness has waned, there could be a brief
period of marginal LLWS (25-30kts) at all sites through approx 03Z,
but not enough to include in any TAFs. Mostly clear skies/light
winds prevail into Wednesday.

Outlook: VFR conditions should continue through Friday, then we
shift into increasing potential for an impactful winter storm this
weekend with sub-VFR conditions especially at the eastern sites
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Temperatures:

January 27: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  8/1940, KFAY: 11/1940
January 28: KGSO: -2/1940, KRDU:  1/2000, KFAY: 10/1935
January 29: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  7/2000, KFAY: 11/1986
January 30: KGSO:  4/1966, KRDU:  7/2014, KFAY:  8/2014
January 31: KGSO:  3/1966, KRDU:  3/1966, KFAY:  9/1934
February 1: KGSO: -4/1936, KRDU:  8/1981, KFAY:  1/1936
February 2: KGSO:  6/1971, KRDU:  5/1971, KFAY: 15/1971

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 27: KGSO: 22/1940, KRDU: 25/1940, KFAY: 28/1940
January 28: KGSO: 23/1986, KRDU: 23/1897, KFAY: 32/1961
January 29: KGSO: 23/1966, KRDU: 27/2014, KFAY: 28/2014
January 30: KGSO: 13/1966, KRDU: 19/1966, KFAY: 29/1966
January 31: KGSO: 22/1936, KRDU: 27/1948, KFAY: 22/1966
February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/AS
AVIATION...Leins
CLIMATE...RAH