Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

642
FXUS62 KRAH 161807
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Slightly increased POPs across eastern areas next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Friday...

1) A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will
bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder
temperatures for Saturday.

2) Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday
morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for
the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front moving across central North Carolina
tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and
sharply colder temperatures for Saturday.

Although a band of convective showers could bring a brief period of
precipitation this evening, a more widespread area of rain will move
into central North Carolina late this evening into the overnight
hours. Low pressure will develop along the front by Saturday
morning, bringing the chance of rain to near 100% from the Triangle
east for Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur
Saturday morning, but rain will linger east of the Triad into the
afternoon. While Thursday night`s low temperatures were generally in
the 60s, tonight`s lows will be slightly colder, ranging from the
upper 40s to the mid 50s. However, it will not be possible to step
outside Saturday and not notice the difference in temperatures from
today. One or two isolated locations may manage to reach the 60s,
but otherwise widespread 50s are forecast for Saturday`s highs, with
the return of sunshine likely by sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2...  Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday
morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal
temperatures for the workweek.

In the wake of Saturday`s cold front, a deep shortwave will swing
across the region and stall roughly along the Carolina coast through
at least the middle of next week. A strong 1034 mb surface high will
build eastward across the Midwest, positioning itself adjacent to a
coastal low that is expected to develop in response to the upper-
level trough. This strong pressure gradient setup will maintain a
steady and at times breezy north-northeasterly flow early in the
week, along with a gradual increase in low-end rain chances each
day, though exact details will depend heavily on the position and
movement of the upper low.

The airmass behind the front will support overnight lows in the 30s
across the Piedmont, with potential for radiational cooling into the
lower 30s. However, the tighter pressure gradient should maintain at
least light stirring overnight Saturday and Sunday night, while high-
level moisture wraps back around the upper low across central and
eastern NC. Consequently, while temperatures may warrant a Frost
Advisory with some temps in the mid-30s, it remains uncertain
whether winds will fully decouple to allow for more widespread
impacts.

For the remainder of the week, weather impacts will be closely tied
to the position of the upper low. The low looks to remain cut off
from the primary westerlies and may drift south-southwestward late
in the week as ridging attempts to build overtop of it into the
central Appalachians. Operational guidance (GFS/ECMWF) remains west
of the AI-based counterparts, though all agreeing better with the
GEFS mean than the eastern-outlying EPS mean. Thus, confidence in
sensible weather impacts remains somewhat low. Expect a gradual
moderation in temperatures, though highs will remain below normal,
along with increasing cloud cover, particularly over eastern
counties. Latest guidance continues to support slight chance PoPs
east of US-1 each day, which makes sense based on model trends and
proximity of the upper low but overall weak forcing.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Friday...

TAF period: This afternoon, all terminals will have VFR conditions
with gusty wind out of the southwest. A pre-frontal band during the
late afternoon and evening could bring a round of convective showers
to all sites with brief restrictions and stronger wind gusts. The
shift to northwest wind with a cold front will occur late this
evening at INT/GSO and after midnight at the other terminals, with
MVFR ceilings and stratiform rain moving in through the night. It
appears that INT/GSO should not drop below MVFR cigs, but
RDU/RWI/FAY now all have IFR cigs in their newest forecast. Gusts
may slacken slightly overnight, but considering the potency of the
cold front, once gusts begin this afternoon, they may continue all
the way through the TAF period.

Outlook: All sites are likely to have showers and MVFR ceilings come
to an end by Saturday evening. A surface low is forecast to develop
along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could
result in several days of intermittent showers at FAY/RWI, although
confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present.
Northerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt will also be possible each
afternoon, with the lowest gusts at INT/GSO and the highest gusts at
RWI.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

October 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925 (as of 2PM RDU has reached 87)
KFAY: 90/1925


Latest 90 F days:

GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/14/2026
FAY: 10/26/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/BLS
AVIATION...Green