Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

702
FXUS62 KRAH 140000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
800 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 800 PM Monday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement reissued for the western Piedmont
  and Sandhills for Tue.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Monday...

1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will
promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week.

2) Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near
record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of
the week.

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern
seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the
southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through
Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30
days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the
elevated drought conditions.  While the combination of RH and wind
will not reach typical IFD criteria today or through this week,
given the anomalously dry fuels and near-record heat, the NC Forest
Service has requested additional messaging along with their current
state-wide burn ban. As such, an IFD has been issued for the western
Piedmont/Sandhills for the rest of today where gusts will be
strongest. An additional IFD for the same footprint will be likely
issued this evening for Tuesday.  A possible expansion eastward to
the coast may be needed from Wednesday through the end of the week,
but further details to come.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday
through Saturday.

Subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of
the period from Tuesday through Saturday. At the surface, a Bermuda
High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this
time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th
percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum
temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Tuesday`s
forecast highs are in the upper-80s with mostly lower-90s each day
after that, which is around 20 degrees above normal. Some mid-90s
will even be possible on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest
day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures
ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section
below for more details. Forecast lows are also quite mild, in the
lower-to-mid-60s, which is 10-20 degrees above normal. Fortunately,
humidity looks tolerable, with dew points bottoming out in the lower-
to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some upper-40s especially in the
west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the
actual air temperatures each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...

Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic
states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and sswly
surface winds that will strengthen and become at least occasionally
gusty with daytime heating again on Tue.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and
VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...