Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

826
FXUS62 KRAH 112344
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
745 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

* Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) introduced across southern half of
  the forecast area for damaging wind potential Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

1) A strong cold front will bring widespread showers Thursday, with
the possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

2) There will be a drastic change in temperatures between Wednesday
afternoon and Friday morning.

3) A second cold front will bring showers Sunday night into Monday,
with another chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will bring widespread showers
Thursday, with the possibility of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms.

Low pressure is currently near the Great Lakes and will continue to
move northeast along the United States/Canada border over the next
48 hours. The cold front that extends to the south of the low will
sweep across North Carolina late tonight into Thursday. Showers are
likely to begin in the Triad for the morning commute, while moving
into the Triangle towards the end of the morning commute and
reaching the I-95 corridor by noon. Although not a drought-buster,
it should bring about half an inch of rainfall to all locations.
Considering the primary period for rainfall will be in the morning
and early afternoon, this is not ideal for the development of
widespread thunderstorm activity. With the bulk of the precipitation
occurring behind the front and falling temperatures through the day,
this will likely require elevated instability to generate
thunderstorms. However, effective shear will increase through the
day, particularly to the south and east of the Triangle. Similarly,
instability will be highest south and east of the Triangle. With the
Wednesday afternoon update to the Thursday convective outlook, SPC
has introduced a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk generally across the
southern half of the forecast area, with the primary threat being
damaging winds.


KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a drastic change in temperatures
between Wednesday afternoon and Friday morning.

Highs today are forecast to range from the mid 80s in the northwest
to 90 degrees in the southeast. The earliest 90 degree high for so
early in the season is possible at Raleigh (current earliest 90
degree high record is March 12, 1990) and Fayetteville (March 17,
1945). Calendar day highs for Thursday are likely to occur at
midnight (in the low to mid 70s) with temperatures falling through
the entire calendar day all the way to dawn Friday morning. Friday
morning lows are expected to be within a few degrees on either side
of the freezing mark, resulting in a 60 degree drop in temperatures
in 36 hours.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A second cold front will bring showers Sunday night
into Monday, with another chance for thunderstorms.

A chance of showers will develop as early as Sunday afternoon with
southerly flow bringing Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the region.
However, the bulk of the rain is not expected to arrive until Monday
with the arrival of a cold front, with another low pressure system
that is expected to move northeast across the Great Lakes and follow
the United States/Canada border. Considering this is five days out,
it`s hard to have high confidence in any severe weather potential,
although the SPC extended outlook states that `any severe potential
along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing
for ascent lags behind the surface front.` AI convective forecasts
do show a slight risk potential across eastern North Carolina on
Monday, but these forecasts usually depict the ceiling for forecast
possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. South to
southwest winds continue to prevail across the terminals this
evening and this is expected to continue prior to a cold frontal
passage Thursday morning. Once the front moves through, gusts will
remain, but switch to be out of the northwest between 25 and 30 kt,
with an infrequent gust to 35 kt certainly possible as well. With
the front approaching, restrictions with showers will promote MVFR
conditions. The heaviest period of showers looks to move through
between 14 and 21z, earliest in the west at GSO/INT and latest at
RWI in the east. Associated with these heavier pockets of rain will
be the potential for IFR and perhaps brief LIFR. Instability may
favor a low-end storm threat, most favored at FAY, where a TEMPO for
TSRA was introduced. VFR should return by the tail end of the TAF
period, though gusts should continue from the NW before diminishing
Thu night.

VFR returns Fri into Sat. Increasing moisture return followed by
another cold front will bring a return to sub-VFR conditions and
showers on Sunday and Monday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 11: KGSO: 62/2016    KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH