Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

450
FXUS62 KRAH 122312
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
712 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

1) A warm and humid day today, with afternoon showers and another
round of showers/thunderstorms later tonight.

2) Limited chances of a shower or storm Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night, with the greatest chances during the afternoon across the
Coastal Plain.

3) A northeast flow will result in near average temperatures and
lower humidity on Tuesday and Wednesday that will feel cooler than
recent days.

4) The low and mid level flow will become more east and
southeasterly late in the work week and weekend resulting in warming
temperatures, an increase in humidity, and an uptick in rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm and humid day today, with afternoon showers
and another round of showers/thunderstorms later tonight.

Last night into this morning, a boundary set up over central NC,
bisecting the region in half. Shower activity started developing
along this boundary as it started lifting north over Wake county
just after noon. PWs over the region are very high (around 2-2.3 in)
which will allow showers to be efficient rain producers this
afternoon. This will combine with slow cell motions to create an
isolated flooding threat, especially if a shower moves over an urban
or poor drainage area. The area of any showers/thunderstorms should
increase over the next few hours as the boundary continues north and
outflows from previous showers/storms provides additional areas of
lift.

Later this evening into tonight, an additional area of
shower/thunderstorm development may be possible as a pre-frontal
trough moves through central NC from the west. Any rain that
develops due to this should move faster than this afternoon`s rain,
leading to a lower flooding threat.

In terms of the strength of the cells today, severe weather is not
currently expected. CAPE values this afternoon look to maximize
around 1500-2000 J/kg, with low shear values. This should allow for
a few cells to get tall enough to produce lightning, but keep any
winds with them below severe strength. However, a few water-loaded
downdrafts could produce brief periods of strong gusty winds this
afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Limited chances of a shower or storm Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night, with the greatest chances during the
afternoon across the Coastal Plain.

A mid level short wave trough across TN and AL at midday today will
be located just east of the Blue Ridge on Sunday morning and then
move offshore by Sunday evening. The best forcing for ascent will be
east of this feature and should be exiting our eastern areas during
the afternoon. Deep layer moisture will be above average areawide on
Sunday but greatest across the east. Expect Sunday to be less
convectively active than today with the greatest threat of a shower
or storm across the east during the afternoon. However, a cold front
will trail behind the short wave trough and move across the area
late Sunday night and there is a limited chance or a shower or storm
in the lingering moisture ahead of the front on Sunday night. Highs
should range in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows near 70.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A northeast flow will result in near average
temperatures and lower humidity on Tuesday and Wednesday that will
feel cooler than recent days.

An anomalously strong mid-level ridge centered in the TN Valley on
Tuesday and Wednesday will result in a northerly flow at mid levels
across VA and the Carolinas while a 1030 mb surface high pressure
system centered over New England will produce a northeast low level
flow across the area. The result will be near to slightly above
seasonal temperatures that will feel notably cooler than recent
weeks. Highs should range in the lower to mid 80s both days and
nighttime lows in the lower to mid 60s with some upper 50s (maybe
mid 50s) possible in the typically cooler locations. Dry weather
with partly cloudy skies and a noticeable northeast breeze at times
are expected during the period.


KEY MESSAGE 4... The low and mid level flow will become more east
and southeasterly late in the work week and weekend resulting in
warming temperatures, an increase in humidity, and an uptick in rain
chances.

The upper-level ridge at mid levels weakens late in the week and
becomes more west to east oriented as a mid level weakness/upper low
organizes near the Bahamas and shifts west into the northern Gulf.
Meanwhile the narrow surface ridge extending southwest into VA and
the Carolinas weakens late in the work week as a weak coastal front
tries to develop off the Carolina coast. The result for our area
will be an increase in temperatures, moisture and clouds and
depending on the track and evolution of the upper low and coastal
font, an uptick in rain chances over the weekend that could increase
further early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered showers and a few storms will be
possible through this evening and into tonight as a weak surface low
lifts across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Some
reduced vsbys and breezy conditions will be possible with the
showers/storms. Due to increased boundary layer moisture, there
could be a period of IFR to perhaps LIFR ceilings and/or sub-VFR
visibilities late tonight/early Sunday morning. Confidence on how
far east and until when the convection will last is low, and thus so
is the timing and development of sub-VFR cigs/vsbys east of the
convection. Restrictions may remain in place until the front moves
through central NC Sunday afternoon. There will be a limited risk of
shower/storm development along the frontal passage Sunday afternoon
into the evening.

Outlook: There will be a non-zero chance of low stratus and/or fog
development again on Monday morning. VFR conditions are then
generally expected to prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/LH
AVIATION...10/LH