Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS62 KRAH 030600
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 AM Monday...

1) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with very heavy
rainfall will continue be possible today and Tuesday, and could
result in an isolated flooding threat.

2) Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected from
Wednesday into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
with very heavy rainfall will continue be possible today and
Tuesday, and could result in an isolated flooding threat.

Central NC remains situated between a weak upper-level low that has
settled near the Southern Appalachians and the sub-tropical ridge
off the East Coast, with moist southwesterly flow, precipitable
water (PW) values near or above two inches, and muggy dew points in
the mid-to-upper 70s. Similar to today, weak diffluence aloft and
subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow should support
scattered to, at times, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
from late this morning through this evening. Most guidance suggests
activity will be focused near or east of I-95 in the deep moisture
axis, or along a cold front/convergence zone shifting east into the
Piedmont as the upper low moves across northern Georgia. Activity
should increase with peak heating, as elevated dew points support
the redevelopment of 500-1000 MLCAPE, despite weak lapse rates
aloft. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour and the potential for
training could lead to isolated flooding, but overall QPF and
confidence in any specific area remain too low to warrant a Flood
Watch, despite the generally favorable pattern.


On Tuesday, the upper low is expected to wobble slightly back to the
northwest, and a more southeasterly flow will likely bring a surge
of moisture with PW values exceeding 2 inches back across the
Piedmont. Deep-layer steering flow is rather weak, and MBE velocity
is also very low on the northeast side of the low. Consequently,
there may be a slightly higher risk of flooding given the potential
for greater coverage of showers and storms, combined with their slow
movement.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected
from Wednesday into next weekend.

The upper low over the Southeast U.S. is forecast to drift northward
and be absorbed by a trough crossing the Great Lakes by the end of
the week. With the Bermuda High remaining in place, a moist
environment will persist over central North Carolina, though with
decreased forcing outside of diurnal influences such as differential
heating, sea breezes, and other boundaries, especially toward the
end of the week. it will remain warm and muggy, with highs in the
80s and dew points in the 70s, resulting in weak instability each
day and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

06Z TAF Period: Light, dissipating showers are clearing across
eastern NC leaving VFR conditions for now. As surface winds weaken
overnight, generally S to SW at 5 to 10 knots, low-level moisture
will favor widespread stratus/fog development. Expect ceilings to
drop quickly to IFR/LIFR a few hours before sunrise across the CWA
from west to east. Patchy areas of reduced visibility for a few
hours could result in patchy dense fog across the Triad, while the
eastern sites will see more intermittent MVFR/IFR visibility dips
below 5SM. After sunrise low stratus will lift/burn off returning
all terminals to MVFR by mid-morning and cloudy, but VFR by the
afternoon.

Outlook: Afternoon heating on Monday and Tuesday will trigger
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms with localized
sub-VFR conditions. Pre-dawn IFR/LIFR stratus and fog restrictions
remain likely each night, particularly over areas that receive heavy
rainfall during the afternoon. Coverage tapers back toward typical
summer-like isolated/scattered convection Thursday into Friday.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...CA/Badgett