Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

025
FXUS62 KRAH 302322
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 140 PM Monday...

* The forecast continues to trend toward a typical early
  summertime pattern with isolated to scattered afternoon
  showers and isolated storms, initially focused over the NC
  Foothills but gradually spreading into the Piedmont.

* Precipitation chances remain extremely limited for the
  Sandhills and Coastal Plain until a cold frontal passage late
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 140 PM Monday...

1) An increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn
ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning
until further notice.

2) Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures
expected.

3) Mainly dry conditions expected, with daily isolated to
scattered shower chances returning on Wednesday, and especially
Friday until a frontal passage Sunday night into Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban
remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until
further notice.

NC forestry officials remain very concerned about the high risk
for dangerous fire weather conditions today. The ongoing
drought and paucity of rainfall in the last 90 days is
contributing to very dry fuels and tree litter, and minimum RH
is expected to be around 35- 40% across all of central NC today,
with frequent gusts in the 15-25 mph range. These factors all
suggest the potential for explosive fire growth and spread
today, and a burn ban remains in effect until further notice.

Looking ahead to Tue, the increased fire danger may persist
given that frequent gusts to 15-25 mph will occur again
tomorrow. Although RH values will likely be about 5% higher
compared to this afternoon, this will have negligible impact on
risk for rapid fire growth. Another increase fire danger
statement will be needed for Tue.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures
expected.

Surface high pressure has moved off the coast, and is currently
centered to the east of NC. This has allowed for winds to shift
to southerly and allow temperatures to return to above normal
for this time of year. Temperatures are expected to rise to
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Wednesday. In terms of
high temperatures, this is seen by a return to the low to mid
70s this afternoon, increasing to the low to mid 80s on
Wednesday. Low to mid 80s are then generally expected through
the weekend. Lows during this timeframe will return to the mid
50s to low 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Mainly dry conditions expected, with daily isolated to
scattered shower chances returning on Wednesday until a frontal
passage Sunday night into Monday.

Although better forcing from a frontal system is expected to
stay well to our north, isolated to scattered showers may be
possible each afternoon Wednesday through Saturday as there
should be plenty of moisture over the region and high
temperatures will promote instability. Thursday looks to have
the lowest chance of any showers forming during this timeframe
as an area of drier air looks to pass over the region. The
highest probabilities of rain each afternoon will be in the west
due to orographic enhancement from the mountains. Within any
showers that form each afternoon, embedded thunderstorms will be
possible and an isolated stronger wind gust cannot be ruled
out. However, widespread severe weather is not expected at this
time. Better and more widespread rain chances will come Sunday
night into Monday as a potentially strong cold front looks to
approach and move through the region. Differences in timing and
location of the system in deterministic models and ensemble data
is making any details unclear at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM Monday...

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the 00z TAF
period. The gusty southwesterly surface winds observed this
afternoon today will decouple over the next hour or so after sunset.
Expect light southerly to southwesterly winds (310 kts) to prevail
overnight under a mix of high-level cirrus and thin mid-level decks.
While a 3540 kt low-level jet (LLJ) is expected to develop over the
region tonight, the lack of significant directional veering and the
presence of 10 kt surface winds at the terminals should keep LLWS
magnitudes just below the 30-kt threshold to include in tonight`s
TAF.

Conditions remain dry through tomorrow morning. By mid morning
Tuesday, vertical mixing will re-establish, leading to a return of
gusty southwesterly winds. Expect winds of around 10 kts with gusts
around 20 kts through the afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually
thicken and lower (staying VFR) into a BKN/OVC mid-level deck
(10,00015,000 ft) as moisture advection increases ahead of the next
system.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered convection developing over the
high terrain over western NC and drifting eastward into the
Piedmont will be possible Tues (5-15% chance), but becoming
increasingly possible Wed and Fri (20-45%), with minimal
coverage on Thurs. Patchy early- morning fog and/or low stratus
can`t be ruled out Wed-Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 90/1910
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010

April 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KRDU: 90/1967
KFAY: 90/1974

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 63/2016
KRDU: 67/2016
KFAY: 67/2016

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/LH
AVIATION...CA/Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH