Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

479
FXUS62 KRAH 291723
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1220 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of central North
Carolina from 4 PM Friday until Sunday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

1) A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of central NC
due to high confidence in at least light snow accumulations. The
potential exists, but not guaranteed, for areas of significant
snowfall to occur anywhere from the Carolinas into the Mid-
Atlantic.

2) A prolonged Arctic air mass will result in well below normal
temperatures across central NC from Thursday through at least
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all
of central NC due to high confidence in at least light snow
accumulations. The potential exists, but not guarantied, for
areas of significant snowfall to occur anywhere from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.

A unseasonably strong mid/upper level low is expected to develop
just south and west of central NC and bring widespread snowfall
accumulations which will likely result in moderate to major
impacts to the area. At the surface, cyclogenesis is likely just
off the Southeast coast, where a weaker but still prevalent
baroclinic zone is forecast over the Gulf Stream. The primary
front is expected to be still draped across the Bahamas, setting
up a probable instant occlusion low surface pattern. The low
off the Carolina coast is expected to rapidly deepen Sat into
Sat night, as stronger synoptic ascent overspreads the Gulf
stream and the main synoptic front is pulled northward. On the
backside of the low, an Arctic airmass will become locked in
over the Mid-Atlantic as the low deepens off the coast,
resulting in potentially record breaking low max temperatures
during the event.

This pattern is favorable for at least light snow with high
snow/liquid ratios within central NC, but also brings an
incredibly difficult forecast challenge related to a deformation
band on the north and west side of the deepening low. The
likelihood of band formation, let alone its timing and
placement, remains a point of considerable uncertainty and may
not be ironed out until 24-36 hours before the event begins.
However, the top analogs and latest suite of 00z model guidance
highlights at least the potential for significant snowfall
totals somewhere from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.

Very light snow may begin to fall as early as Fri afternoon across
the northern Piedmont, but with marginally freezing surface
temperatures at that time, little-to-no impacts are expected until
after 4 PM Friday as temperatures drop. As the mid/upper level
low begins to pivot down through the Tennessee Valley and close
off Fri night, the low level mass response will result in a
strengthening low/mid level WAA and low-level FGEN band to begin
to develop over the Piedmont. Initially this area of snowfall
will be slow moving and may result in 1-3" of snowfall before
daybreak.

Widespread snowfall and increasing snow rates are expected to
blossom over the area Sat as the mid/upper level low deepens and
pivots across the Southeast. At this time, the deepest forcing
for ascent will shift eastward across the state through Sat into
Sat night as a significant deformation band on the backside of
the low begins to develop towards the Carolina coast. How
quickly this transition can take place and where the band
eventually sets up will be key in pinpointing where the
significant totals may occur. Reasonable high-end amounts of
around +10" will be possible within this area. Continued
forecast refinements should be expected as the details of this
difficult but significant forecast become clearer.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A prolonged Arctic air mass will result in
well below normal temperatures across central NC from Thursday
through at least the middle of next week.

A prolonged period of Arctic air will be in place over central NC
through at least the middle of next week. For today though, a Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM this morning for the
far northern Coastal Plain, where apparent temperatures will range
from 6 to 9 degrees.

A strong Arctic high presently over central Canada will slowly
migrate south into the central and southern Plains of the US Fri and
this weekend. It will slowly move east into the TN/OH valley and Mid-
Atlantic region early next week. This pattern, along with the strong
winter storm taking aim on the region, will favor a prolonged period
of well below normal temperatures. The coldest period is shaping up
to be Sat through Mon. Highs on Sat are currently projected to be in
the 20s, but some guidance suggests we may hover in the teens, while
on Sun we stay in the mid to upper 20s. As for lows during this
time, single digits to lower teens are quite probable, with fresh
snow cover also playing a role early next week. An Extreme Cold
Watch may be needed for Sat night into Sun with wind chills ranging
from minus five to near zero degrees. Temperatures may moderate some
by Tue/Wed with highs nearing the 40s as ridging aloft slowly moves
east from the Mid MS valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Thursday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. A
veil of high clouds is currently over central North Carolina, and
after those clouds move south, there should only be a short period
of mostly clear skies before additional high clouds advect in from
the northwest. While the wind this afternoon will primarily be out
of the north-northwest, it should become light and variable
overnight, then be light out of the east Friday morning.

Outlook: A strong winter storm is likely to form along the North
Carolina coast this weekend, with widespread snow Friday night
through Sunday morning at all terminals. IFR/MVFR restrictions are
expected at all terminals, along with northwesterly gusts up to 30
kt. Snow will come to an end on Sunday, along with the wind
subsiding Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 29: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  7/2000, KFAY: 11/1986
January 30: KGSO:  4/1966, KRDU:  7/2014, KFAY:  8/2014
January 31: KGSO:  3/1966, KRDU:  3/1966, KFAY:  9/1934
February 1: KGSO: -4/1936, KRDU:  8/1981, KFAY:  1/1936
February 2: KGSO:  6/1971, KRDU:  5/1971, KFAY: 15/1971
February 3: KGSO:  7/1917, KRDU:  7/1980, KFAY: 10/1917
February 4: KGSO:  7/1996, KRDU:  7/1981, KFAY: 15/1980


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 29: KGSO: 23/1966, KRDU: 27/2014, KFAY: 28/2014
January 30: KGSO: 13/1966, KRDU: 19/1966, KFAY: 29/1966
January 31: KGSO: 22/1936, KRDU: 27/1948, KFAY: 22/1966
February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948
February 3: KGSO: 23/1996, KRDU: 24/1996, KFAY: 30/1961
February 4: KGSO:  7/1996, KRDU:  7/1981, KFAY: 15/1980

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/Kren
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH