Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

111
FXUS62 KRAH 142336
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
638 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front currently moving offshore of the Carolinas will
bring the coldest night so far this season. Behind the cold front,
high pressure will build into the Southeast for the first half of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Sunday...

* A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight into Monday morning
  with widespread wind chills in the single digits overnight.

As of noon, there was not a very wide gradient of temperatures
across the forecast area, but there was a noticeable difference in
dewpoints - Winston-Salem had a value of 13 degrees while Clinton
was 40 degrees. The back edge of the clouds was generally along the
US-1 corridor and will continue to move to the east through the
afternoon, with all locations except perhaps the far northeast clear
by sunset. The wind will ramp up as clearing occurs, and multiple
locations have already recorded wind gusts over 30 mph. The peak
wind gust of 43 mph at Greensboro at 11:36am should be the maximum
wind gust that will occur, primarily as skies clear and additional
mixing is promoted. Temperatures may climb a degree or two when
skies clear, but the cold advection is more likely to win out with
temperatures generally falling through the day. This will continue
through the overnight hours, with gusts finally lightening a bit
after midnight. Considering winds are not expected to go calm for an
extended period overnight (possibly around sunrise), radiational
cooling will not be as much of a concern, but this will be the
coldest night of the year so far and the coldest night in a few
years for some locations. For example, the forecast low at
Fayetteville is 15, which last occurred on Jan 23, 2025, 11 at
Greensboro (last occurred on Jan 21, 2024), and 15 at Raleigh-Durham
International Airport (last occurred Dec 26, 2022). The only record
low within 5 degrees of the forecast is Fayetteville, which had its
record low for December 15 of 13 degrees back in 1962. Lows
everywhere will be in the teens, with wind chills dropping into the
single digits. No changes are necessary for the Cold Weather
Advisory, which goes into effect at 6pm and continues through 9am
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

* Continued cold with daytime highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

Weakening surface high pressure elongated across the Southeast will
gradually weaken throughout the day its it slowly sinks southeast
into Tues morning. The newly deposited Arctic airmass, characterized
by morning low-level thicknesses nearly 60m below normal, will make
for a cold afternoon with highs only reaching the mid 30s. Monday
night should be another cold night, although not as cold as Sunday
night. Latest forecast continues to highlight all locations falling
into at least the low/mid 20s with isolated locations expected to
fall into the upper teens.

A big question mark is how much orographic cirrus will develop after
midnight and how long it will linger into Tues morning. The pattern
is certainly favorable for widespread development across central NC,
but the uncertainty stems from the amount of available mid/upper
level moisture to lift is it shifts across the Ohio Valley and into
the Mid-Atlantic. Only changes to the forecast were to trend
slightly cooler (mid/upper teens) across the Sandhills and
central/southern Coastal Plain where probabilities of mostly clear
skies are highest; also will be closer to the surface high center
and more likely to efficiently radiationally cool.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

* Continued cold Tues morning, but warming trend expected Tues
  through Thurs night.

* Forecast confidence increasing for Thurs into Fri morning with our
  next precipitation chances.

A compact shortwave shifting across the Great Lakes and Northeast
Thurs into Fri will be embedded within predominantly zonal flow
aloft and will drive our next precipitation chances. The forecast
trend over the past 24 hours has been a more amplified wave among
almost all available deterministic guidance. This is now resulting
in 60 to 100m H5 height falls across central NC as a plume of
anomalous moisture (0.75 to 1" PWAT) spreads into the area. Light
precipitation will begin to spread northward as a warm front lifts
through the area Thurs morning through the afternoon hours. Expect
mostly increasing cloud cover during this time, but light rain will
be possible as moisture return off the Atlantic begins.

Better rain chances will be Thurs night into Fri morning as the
precipitation character changes to more mixed character nature as
deterministic guidance suggests a plume of > 100 MUCAPE peels up
into/near central NC. Surface based parcels appear unlikely at this
time as central NC does not tap into true maritime moisture (dew
points > 60 degrees). This instability may only act to increase
rainfall totals a bit, but probability of > 1" in 24 hours is less
than 5%. Most likely range from the grand-ensemble is between 0.25
and 0.75".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 638 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. The primary concern will be wind gusts through 06z. A
forecast of 15 to 30 kt at all terminals, and with strong cold
advection, the gusts are forecast to diminish near sunrise.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through much of the outlook
period, although restrictions are expected in widespread light rain
Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Badgett