Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

335
FXUS62 KRAH 180707
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

* No noteworthy changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

1) Unseasonably hot, near record temperatures today - but with very
low humidity

2) Noticeably cooler Sunday - cloudy with light stratiform rain in
the morning, then clearing through the afternoon-evening

3) Patchy frost possible Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonably hot, near record temperatures today -
but with very low humidity

Shortwave ridging, poleward of a sub-tropical high over the ern
Gulf, will progress across and offshore the South Atlantic states
today and ahead of a shortwave trough that will progress into the
OH/TN Valleys by 12Z Sun. That trough will be preceded by a
convectively-amplified mid-level trough, related to an extensive
band of upstream convection now extending from the upr Great Lakes
to the srn Plains, which will progress into the Middle Atlantic and
wrn NC tonight-Sun morning.

At the surface, a front now draped across Southside and Tidewater VA
will retreat slightly nwd ahead of a frontal wave forecast to
develop in the lee of the Appalachians and across nrn VA and the
Delmarva this evening.  A trailing cold front will move across the
Appalachians and into the nrn Piedmont of NC by 12Z Sun. Cntl NC
will consequently be in the warm sector and a regime of swly flow
between the approaching cold front and sub-tropical high pressure
from the w-cntl N. Atlantic to the South Atlantic coast.

While mid and high clouds will thicken with the approach of the
convectively-amplified mid-level trough tonight, moisture will
otherwise remain limited. In fact, surface dewpoints are likely to
mix out into the 40s F over most of the Piedmont and Sandhills again
today. So while warm sector temperatures will likely reach the upr
80s and lwr 90s this afternoon, low humidity values in the 20s
percent will help take the edge of the unseasonably hot, mid-April
temperatures.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Noticeably cooler Sunday - cloudy with light
stratiform rain in the morning, then clearing through the afternoon-
evening

The cold front noted above will progress across cntl NC Sun morning.
Its passage will be marked by the arrival of markedly cooler air and
nwly winds that will gust up to 30-35 mph for a few hours
immediately post-frontal passage. A band of light, anafrontal rain
and widespread clouds will also follow the front, with both expected
to move east and yield afternoon through evening clearing. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be very limited: an average of a few
hundredths of an inch over srn zones ranging to a tenth of an inch
or so over the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. Strong radiational
cooling of the post-frontal airmass will favor low temperatures in
the mid-upr 30s over rural Piedmont locations to lwr-mid 40s
elsewhere Sun night - 50 F colder than high temperatures of recent
days.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Patchy frost possible Tuesday morning.

A 1028+ mb high will slide sewd from the Great Lakes across the mid-
Atlantic Mon night into Tue before shifting offshore. Low-level
thicknesses vary amongst the available guidance, ranging anywhere
from 1300 m to 1330 m across central NC. The winds may remain
stirred early until the high ridges across the area. The other
question is whether high clouds will spread across the area and how
thick they might be. For now, expect that coverage to be limited if
they do develop. Combined with the light winds early Tue, temps
could drop into the low-mid 30s across the VA border counties and
some of the usual cold spots. However, with dewpoints in the low-mid
20s, RH values should max out in the 50-60 percent range by daybreak
Tue, which may limit actual frost formation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Continued influence from a continental/dry airmass will favor VFR
conditions through the 06Z TAF period. Calm to very light/variable
surface wind this morning will become swly and strengthen with
daytime heating, with gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon.

Outlook: A strong cold front will move southeast and across cntl NC
Sun morning. A band of post-frontal ceilings, some as low as MVFR,
and light rain, will result for a few hours behind the front, as
will strong nwly surface winds that may gust up to 25-30 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP
AVIATION...MWS