Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS62 KRAH 120606
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A widely isolated shower or sprinkle may accompany the cold front
  Thursday. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds will ensue Thursday in
  the 25-30 mph range.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

1) Staying above average through tomorrow. A cold front Thursday
brings much cooler weather by early Friday.

1) Behind a secondary cold front on Friday, the chilliest air of the
season will arrive and support the first widespread frost/freeze
risk this weekend. This will be followed by continued below average
temperatures and dry conditions that will persist through most of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Staying above average through tomorrow. A cold
front Thursday brings much cooler weather by early Friday.

The above average temperature, albeit short-lived prior to a cold
front tomorrow evening, will continue today and most of the day
tomorrow. Widespread low to middle 70s are expected this afternoon,
followed by upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday, about 8-12 degrees
above seasonal normals.

Satellite imagery currently shows a weak disturbance at mid-levels
tracking east across the Deep South this afternoon and evening. It
will increase our clouds through the day/evening, but we stay dry.

Low pressure across the Mid MS Valley today will reach the Mid-
Atlantic states Thursday, before exiting off the New England coast
early Friday. A pre-frontal trough will be in place tomorrow ahead
of a cold front forecast to move through during the evening hours. A
persistent west-southwest flow Thursday should keep us still mild
most of the day, with the colder air not arriving until overnight.
Low-level thicknesses take a nose dive to around 1320-1325m by
Friday morning, typical of early December. But with a well mixed
boundary layer, forecast lows should range in the upper 30s NW to
low 40s SE.

Ahead of the front, a pair of shortwaves rotating around the larger
trough will provide enough height falls to warrant a widely isolated
shower or sprinkle in the morning across the Triad and eastern areas
in the late afternoon to early evening. Most areas are forecast to
remain dry with little moisture below cloud layer. Wind gusts
along/ahead of the front will gust to 25-30 mph, highest across the
northwest.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind a secondary cold front on Friday, the
chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first
widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend. This will be followed by
continued below average temperatures and dry conditions that will
persist through most of next week.

Broad mid/upper troughing over the Eastern US on Friday will
gradually weaken and shift into the North Atlantic through the
weekend. At the surface, low pressure centered just east of southern
New England early Friday will slowly lift NE. This will have dragged
a cold front through central NC on Thursday, and a reinforcing cold
front is expected to cross the area on Friday. This secondary cold
front will be accompanied by another vorticity lobe and associated
mid-level height falls rotating around the base of the broader
trough on Friday late afternoon and evening. Model soundings
indicate potential for a thin layer of very weak instability and
saturation centered around 800 mb during this time, which may be
enough to squeeze out some isolated sprinkles or light rain, if
precipitation can reach the ground despite a fairly dry sub-cloud
layer and PW values only 50-70% of normal. The 12z ECMWF/GFS/CMC
ensembles had an uptick in probabilities of measurable
precipitation, but their mean QPF is still around 0.05" or less. The
best chance still appears to be across the NE Piedmont and
northern/central Coastal Plain.

Temperatures will turn below normal on Friday in a CAA regime, with
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. We look to stay fairly mixed on
Friday night, which will limit radiational cooling, but forecast
lows are still in the 30s, resulting in some frost/freeze concerns.
Wind chills could also drop to the mid 20s to lower 30s. As Canadian
high pressure builds into the Eastern US, the MSLP gradient will
relax, resulting in calmer conditions on Sunday and especially
Monday mornings. This is when the first sub-freezing temperatures of
the season are expected across much of central NC, with a hard
freeze even possible over outlying parts of the Piedmont. Thus the
growing season is likely to be ended this weekend. For reference,
the last day GSO reached at or below freezing was March 18, while it
was April 9 at RDU and March 29 at FAY. Highs on Saturday and Sunday
will also be chilly, only reaching the lower to mid 50s both days.
These would be the coldest highs across the area since March.

Fire weather concerns can`t be totally ruled out on Friday and
Saturday given RH values dropping to 30-40% and possibly even lower
given NW downsloping flow. However, momentum transfer on forecast
model soundings indicates marginal wind gusts both days (in the 15-
20 kt range). This combined with the cool temperatures will limit
potential for increased fire danger.

The Canadian High will remain over the Eastern US from Monday
through Wednesday, with only slow weakening/modification expected.
So temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours. A
few disturbances will move over central NC today associated with a
cold frontal passage. This will allow for a low chance of a few
light showers, mainly in the north, with the best chance in the
Triad (INT/GSO) terminals early morning, continuing east into the
afternoon. If there is a light shower at a terminal, no restrictions
are expected. Otherwise, only some mid and upper level ceilings are
expected. The main hazard today will be gusty winds. This afternoon
into the evening expect westerly to northwesterly gusts up to around
25 kts, with a chance of some infrequent higher gusts.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through early next week.
Gusty NW winds are expected to continue Friday and Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Danco/MWS
AVIATION...LH