Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS62 KRAH 080514
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Some patchy frost may be possible Tuesday morning, though a better
  chance of widespread frost/freeze is expected next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1215 AM Sunday...

1) Rain chances and amounts are still highly uncertain late this
week. Below normal temperatures and the potential for widespread
frost/freeze is expected next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1215 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain chances and amounts are still highly uncertain
late this week. Below normal temperatures and the potential for
widespread frost/freeze is expected next weekend.

After a chilly start this morning under cool high pressure,
temperatures should climb into the 60s this afternoon as return flow
sets in and high clouds move east. A warming trend with temperatures
some 5-10 degrees above average will take shape this upcoming week
as low-level thicknesses rise and periods of return southwest flow
remain in place. Some patchy frost could occur Tuesday morning under
a night of clear skies and light winds. A mid-level disturbance
crosses the region Wednesday, which could increase clouds but offer
limited rain chances as Gulf moisture is essentially closed off.

We continue to watch a late-week storm system that is poised to
develop as an Omega block sets up with ridging across the western US
and troughing in the eastern US. A dip in the polar jet stream
occurs across the east, phasing with the subtropical jet, leading to
downstream cyclogenesis. The aggregate of ensemble members,
including AI guidance, shows a surface low track across the northern
Mid-Atlantic states Thursday into Friday. However, there are still
some outlier solutions which track the low further south across the
TN valley or even over the Carolinas. The further south solutions
would offer a better chance of accumulated rainfall along the
deformation band, while the northern consensus trend would bring
isolated rain amounts. The best chance with this scenario would be
along the cold front Thursday afternoon or evening, which if it
trends far enough north could bring a threat of storms with the area
possibly in the warm sector.

There appears more widespread agreement amongst the guidance that as
the system passes, a much colder airmass settles in with thicknesses
around 1300m, supporting widespread frost/freeze next weekend. The
only limiting factor may be wind gusts, which could be elevated with
a moderate pressure gradient in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1215 AM Sunday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period. Light winds to start Sunday will transition to be out of the
west southwest at 5-8 kt. Mid and high clouds.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF outlook
period. A late-week storm system could bring sub-VFR restrictions in
rain/showers Thursday into Friday, along with brisk NW winds Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...Kren