Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS62 KRAH 092252
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

1) A few isolated showers possible this afternoon and evening.
Patchy fog possible overnight into early Sunday. Mostly dry through
Sunday night.

2) A pair of cold fronts will bring a chance of showers, the first
Sunday night into Monday and the second on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Overall amounts and impacts should be low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few isolated showers possible this afternoon and
evening. Patchy fog possible overnight into early Sunday. Mostly dry
through Sunday night.

A few isolated showers continue to move across the southern Coastal
Plain this afternoon driven by 925 mb WAA/isentropic upglide. The
925 mb WAA maxima has largely shifted towards the coastal areas as
the base of the mid-level trough moves over central NC. As such,
think this isolated activity in the south should largely fizzle out
the next few hours. Further upstream over the VA/NC high terrain and
foothills, clearing has led to some weak SBCAPE. While largely void
of sfc or upper lift, can`t rule out a few isolated showers
trickling into the Triad late today.  Otherwise, expect dry
conditions overnight and into majority of Sunday. Latest guidance
shows perhaps some late convection trickling across the NC/VA border
Sunday night, but largely holds off on any widespread rain until
after 12Z Sunday.

While clouds will hang around for much of tonight, some pooling of
low-level moisture could result in patchy fog especially for those
along and east of US-1.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of cold fronts will bring a chance of
showers, the first Sunday night into Monday and the second on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall amounts and impacts should be
low.

A cold front will approach the region from the NW on Sunday night as
a mid/upper trough brings weak mid-level height falls to the
southern Mid-Atlantic. This will result in increased shower chances,
especially on Monday morning and afternoon when POPs are high chance
to likely. The greatest amounts should be in SE parts of the area
where moisture and instability will be most favorable. But even
there, QPF is only in the quarter to half inch range at most. Very
light amounts of a tenth of an inch or less are expected across the
Piedmont.

Isolated storms will be possible in the south and east along and
ahead of the front, but this will depend on the timing of its
passage. A slower passage, like what is depicted on the ECMWF and
NAM, will give more time for daytime heating and instability to
develop, while the faster GFS keeps the instability axis largely to
our south. Ahead of the front, 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will be
possible, along with steep low-level lapse rates and 45-55 kts of
bulk shear. So isolated damaging winds can`t be ruled out there, and
the Day 3 marginal risk of severe weather from SPC clips southern
Sampson County. Any rain chances will end on Monday night.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the remainder of the
workweek. Tuesday will be the coolest day, with highs in the upper-
60s to lower-70s and lows in the upper-40s to lower-50s. Highs will
be in the mid-to-upper-70s from Wednesday through Friday. A weak
cold front may bring another chance of showers on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, but ensemble mean QPF is only a tenth to a quarter
inch, and impacts should be minimal. Warm weather will return on
Saturday with forecast highs in the mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 PM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours
at INT/GSO, less confidence of that at RDU/FAY/RWI. While high
ceilings are present at all terminals, mid level cloudiness is a bit
greater at sites farther south and to the east. While numerical
guidance is showing the potential for visibility restrictions at
FAY/RWI, think that the combination of mid and high level cloudiness
at these sites could limit the overall fog potential. Cannot rule
out the potential for fog at RDU, but also don`t have enough
confidence to add any restrictions there. At FAY/RWI, the 00Z TAFs
will be slightly more optimistic than the 18Z TAFs with the tempo
group. Light southwest wind overnight will veer to the northwest
Sunday morning with clearing clouds, then the wind will likely back
to the southwest again Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front and area of low pressure will bring showers
and some storms Monday, most favored at RDU/FAY/RWI. High pressure
brings VFR conditions Tue. Another frontal system will bring a
threat of sub-VFR showers Wed into Thu.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...Green/Kren