Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS62 KRAH 171646
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1246 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Minor tweaks to highs and heat index values through
  Wednesday, although the message remains the same.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1240 PM Sunday...

1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday.

2) Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1240 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday.

An unseasonably strong mid/low-level anticyclone and steep mid-
level lapse rates (associated with a modified EML) sampled in
the 12z RAOB data over Carolinas and portion of the Southeast,
will keep conditions capped and void of precipitation amidst
unseasonably moist deep-layer moisture in place. Warm
temperatures though the mid/low-lvls will exceed the 90th
percentile through at least Wednesday and support several days
of hot conditions at the surface when temperatures should
regularly eclipse 90 degrees by mid- afternoon.

Given central NC`s position within the described weather
pattern above, there are minimal failure modes and reasonably
high confidence in the forecast high temperatures through Wed.
However, forecast confidence on mixing out of dew points in the
afternoon is slightly lower and will result in fluctuations in
the daily maximum heat index values. Leaning on experimental
HeatRisk, widespread and prolonged Moderate Risk (level 2 out of
4) is expected through Wed. This level and duration of
unseasonably warm temperatures will primarily affect anyone
sensitive to the heat, but any outdoor activities in the sun
during peak heating should be monitored closely for signs of
heat exhaustion. Take breaks in the shade/indoors often and make
sure adequate hydration is available.

Reminder, the temperature forecast is the expected temperature
in the shade and does not account for additive affects from
direct sunlight. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) does take
this into account, but is sensitive to incoming solar radiation,
and wind speed. If you would like to know more, please see
weather.gov/rah/wbgt for more information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with more seasonable
temperatures.

The unseasonably strong ridge will gradually weaken and lose
its grip on the Carolinas and portions of the Southeast as the
mid/low-lvl anticyclone settles back over Bermuda by mid-week.
The mid/upper level trough axis well become elongated across the
CONUS as the northern wave progressively rides the
International Border to the north and a southern portion
gradually pinches off over southern Plains into the weekend.

Our first chance for rain may come as early as Wed evening in
the northwest Piedmont, but more likely Thurs into Fri as a weak
to moderately unstable airmass will precede a backdoor cold
front as it shifts across the area Thurs afternoon/evening.
Showers and some isolated storms will be possible along the
front, given favorable diurnal passage as of the latest
forecast, with weak 925mb FGEN and low/mid-lvl WAA atop the
front should support a period of light stratiform rain in its
wake into Fri, potentially setting up a brief classical-CAD into
Fri.

The surface high will be very transitory across the northern
Mid-Atlantic and should not sustain classical CAD into the
weekend. Fri afternoon/night should see a transition back to a
southerly flow regime. This should set the stage for a more
typical early summertime pattern for diurnal showers/storms
during the afternoon/evening focused around the sea-breeze and
terrain circulations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through this evening
at all terminals. Moisture has increased south and west of the
terminals across GA/SC. Isolated to scattered storms are
expected to develop in that vicinity this afternoon and evening,
but remain well west of the terminals in central NC. A stray
shower cannot be fully ruled out near GSO/INT this evening, but
that chance is very low at the moment. Moisture levels will
continue to increase tonight as dewpoints rise, especially
across the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Morning stratus
or sub-VFR visibilities are again possible at FAY on Mon. These
conditions could briefly influence RWI but confidence on it
getting that far north is too low.

Outlook: Morning stratus and fog will be favored each morning
Tue and Wed as return flow strengthens, most probable at
FAY/RWI. An increasingly unsettled pattern will set up late Wed
through Fri with the approach of a cold front. Sub-VFR
restrictions continue to be favored with scattered showers and
storms forecast during this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AK