Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS62 KRAH 172000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

1) Despite multi-layered cloudiness and somewhat shallow
boundary layer mixing, Wed will be unseasonably mild and windy.

2) Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, falling
below normal next week.


3) An unsettled pattern will keep a chance of rain in the forecast
from Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Despite multi-layered cloudiness and somewhat
shallow boundary layer mixing, Wed will be unseasonably mild and
windy.

Fast, wswly srn stream flow, and associated cirrus/cirrostratus,
will prevail from the Southwest to the srn Middle Atlantic,
including across cntl NC. At the same time, areas of low ceilings,
in return, sly/swly flow around an offshore anticyclone, will have
likely overspread cntl NC during the morning. Associated 1500-3500
ft AGL ceilings will likely linger into the afternoon over the
Piedmont, while they are expected to scatter more quickly across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where related boundary layer mixing
should become relatively maximized. There, swly surface winds will
probably gust to near 35 kts, versus around 30 kts otherwise and
elsewhere. That swly flow regime will also be an increasingly
mild/warm one, supportive of high temperatures that should range
from middle 60s nw to lwr 70s se.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures continue through
Saturday, falling below normal next week.

A warm front will lift nwd across the area Wed/Wed night, but could
creep swd, backdoor cold front style, across portions of the nrn
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain on Thu as high pressure over the
Northeast US ridges across the mid-Atlantic, then lift out of the
area once again by Thu night. Meanwhile, the surface low will track
enewd from the cntl Plains to the upper MS Valley where it will
occlude, the attendant cold front continuing ewd across the OH and
TN Valley regions Thu night/Fri. Despite cloudiness for several
days, warm advection should keep temperatures above normal (highs in
the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s). For Friday through
Sun night, there are still significant differences between the
medium-range model solutions wrt the front progression, timing of
fropa, and potential development and track of additional areas of
low pressure that may track along it. Those differences and
uncertainties result in a low confidence forecast. Still expect Fri
to be the warmest day of the period, with highs ranging from upper
60s NE to upper 70s south. While dependent upon the fropa and
precipitation, temperatures should remain above normal for Fri night
through Sat night, albeit lower than the preceding days/nights. In
the wake of the front, when cold high pressure is finally able to
build into the region, temperatures will swing back to below-well
below normal for early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 3... An unsettled pattern will keep a chance of rain in
the forecast from Thursday through Sunday.

Aloft, the amplitude of the sub-tropical ridge will vary as it moves
across the region through Fri, with some weak disturbances
traversing the ridge Thu/Thu night. Meanwhile, a nrn stream s/w will
track ewd across the nrn Plains and into the upr MS Valley, while a
trailing s/w moves across the Intermountain West. The leading s/w
will close off briefly as it moves enewd across the Great Lakes
Fri/Fri night, while the trailing s/w moves ewd across the cntl
Rockies and into the Plains. Another nrn stream s/w will drop swd
across the nrn Plains Fri night/Sat as the disturbance to the south
continues ewd across the Plains. These two shortwaves may eventually
merge and close off over the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sun/Sun night.
However, there are still significant model differences wrt the
strength and track of these disturbances. The surface pattern is
outlined above (Key Message 1), a warm front will lift nwd across
central NC on Wednesday, perhaps getting hung up across or dipping
swd into the nrn Piedmont and/or nrn Coastal Plain as high pressure
ridges swd across the mid-Atlantic Wed night/Thu. The warm front
should finally lift out of the area Thu night as the surface low
occludes and the cold front moves across the Appalachians. The
attendant cold front should move across the area Fri/Fri night,
while a secondary low forms along the front then tracks ewd across
the mid-Atlatntic and offshore. The front should become quasi-
stationary and more W-E oriented across the Southeast US/Carolinas
Sat and Sun. Another low may develop along the front over the Deep
South/Southeast Sat/Sat night, then track enewd along the front,
across the Carolinas and off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night/Sun.

Along the warm front with the weak disturbances aloft on Thu, there
could be some light rain, highest chances across the north,
primarily along the VA border. Showers will be possible Fri/Fri
night as the front moves into and across the area. However, there
are large differences in the model guidance on the coverage and
amounts. Additional rounds of rain will be possible invof the front
as it wavers over the Southeast US/Carolinas over the weekend. Given
the continued uncertainty, confidence on location, coverage, and
rainfall amounts remain low at this time. Precipitation should
largely be liquid, with the cold air chasing the rain out late
Sunday, with Sunday night looking dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions, and swly surface winds that will occasionally gust
into the teens kts this afternoon, will continue through early
tonight. While a chance of radiation fog will exist at RWI due to
local effects tonight, areas of mostly MVFR ceilings, to possibly
IFR ones at FAY and RWI, are expected to overspread cntl NC Wed
morning, as will a 40-45 kt, swly low-level jet and related risk of
low-level wind shear. MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon
over the Piedmont on Wed, while they will likely scatter to VFR more
quickly at FAY and RWI. Swly surface winds will also strengthen and
become strongly gusty through the day Wed, particularly in areas
where scattering and deeper mixing materialize most quickly (ie.
FAY and RWI).

Outlook: Flight restrictions and rain will accompany a deepening
area of low pressure across the region this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Green/KCP
AVIATION...MWS