Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS62 KRAH 241803
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation section of the AFD.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Friday...

1) Well below average temperatures in cold air damming will continue
for the next couple of days and will be accompanied through tonight
by additional waves of elevated convection and locally heavy rain.

2) By the end of the weekend, expect a return to more typical late
July weather, with highs around 90 and mostly diurnally driven
convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Well below average temperatures in cold air damming
will continue for the next couple of days and will be accompanied
through tonight by additional waves of elevated convection and
locally heavy rain.

"Overrunning" lift/isentropic upglide, atop a surface frontal zone
draped from far sern NC wswwd across the cntl Savannah Basin and TN
Valley, will maintain widespread overcast and mixed character rain
(ie. a combination of light rain/drizzle and embedded showers)
through tonight and also support at least a couple of waves of
deeper elevated convection and related locally heavy rain. The first
wave of elevated convection will focus this morning over srn NC,
where 925 mb WAA/isentropic ascent and elevated instability nearest
the frontal zone to the south will be maximized. The second will be
related to the approach and passage tonight of a mid-level shortwave
perturbation approaching from MO. The latter feature may yield a
couple of areas of concentrated, heavier rainfall amounts, including
again across srn NC where MUCAPE and deep moisture will remain
maximized, but also possibly over the nw Piedmont, where LPMM fields
depict a secondary maximum. An extension in time of the Flood Watch
that remains in effect for srn NC will be considered, as will the
issuance of a new Watch for a portion of the nrn Piedmont later
today should model and observational trends continue to suggest a
secondary maximum may indeed result there.

It will otherwise remain unseasonably mild, with high temperatures
around 10 F below average in the aforementioned CAD overcast and
periods of rain; and the record low maximum temperature of 81 F
today at FAY has a very realistic chance of being set.


KEY MESSAGE 2... By the end of the weekend, expect a return to more
typical late July weather, with highs around 90 and mostly diurnally
driven convection.

By Sunday, the front that has been around central North Carolina
should have moved far south to have minimal impact locally, and
highs should rebound into the 80s everywhere. By Monday, highs will
return to more typical upper 80s and lower 90s, continuing through
the week. Precipitation should also return to generally being
diurnally-driven. While coverage should be isolated most days, the
greatest coverage should occur Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
boundary moving through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Widespread adverse aviation conditions ongoing across central NC
this afternoon will persist through the 24 hour TAF period and
likely deteriorate late tonight and Saturday morning. Widespread low-
level moisture in a cool northeast flow has supported the
development of widespread MVFR-IFR CIGS and a few areas of drizzle
and light rain. Showers and a few thunderstorms will skirt the
southern areas this afternoon and evening before a more significant
disturbance aloft dives southeast across the region triggering more
widespread showers and some thunderstorms that will move southeast
across the area late tonight through midday on Saturday. These
showers and storms will support additional VSBY/CIG restrictions
with showers and storms potentially producing locally heavy rain.
Light mainly north to northeast winds will continue through the
period at 4 to 8kts.

Outlook: The cool and moist airmass will persist across the region
on Saturday night and early Sunday with a return to a more typical
summer time pattern through the middle of the upcoming work week
with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.
&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

July 24: KFAY: 81/1985

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/TAG
AVIATION...Blaes