Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

457
FXUS62 KRAH 041030
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Confidence has increased that Monday and Tuesday will have the
  highest chance of rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

1) Dangerous heat across central North Carolina will likely peak
today, although hazardous heat is likely to continue through Monday.

2) Mostly dry weather expected through the weekend, then better rain
chances return to start the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat across central North Carolina will
likely peak today, although hazardous heat is likely to continue
through Monday.

Between our three climate sites, Greensboro broke its daily high
temperature record on Friday and RDU tied its daily high temperature
record. As the upper ridge continues to build across the Southeast,
today`s temperatures certainly shouldn`t be any cooler than
yesterday`s, and will likely rise a couple of degrees. Dewpoints
should continue to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and have not
made any changes to the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory that
are in effect through this evening. High temperatures on Sunday
should be similar to today`s values or a degree cooler, but it does
appear that some slightly drier air should also help to bring heat
index values down on Sunday as well. Considering the cumulative
effects of the heat over multiple days, a heat advisory will likely
be necessary Sunday and possibly Monday, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to issue the advisory on this shift.

Other heat-related points:

- Overnight lows will generally remain in the mid to upper 70s,
providing limited nocturnal recovery, allowing cumulative heat
stress to increase as the event progresses.

- The greatest concern continues to be the prolonged duration of the
heat rather than any single exceptionally hot day. Consecutive days
of excessive heat and warm nights compound impacts.

- The experimental NWS Heat Risk product indicates Major to Extreme
Heat Risk today through Monday. (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk)

- While isolated afternoon convection (particularly from Sunday on)
may provide localized and temporary relief, coverage appears
insufficient to significantly mitigate the overall heat hazard.

- Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed on Sunday and
Monday.

- Finally, the highest risk will be for those without effective
cooling, individuals working or recreating outdoors, and other heat-
sensitive populations as the prolonged stretch of above-normal
temperatures continues into next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly dry weather expected through the weekend,
then better rain chances return to start the work week.

The anticipated gradual breaking-down of the upper ridge commences
today, but there will be little change in the overall pattern as we
stay largely cutoff from Atlantic or Gulf moisture and beneath warm
and suppressive mid-upper levels. The exception to the dry weather
today may be along the VA border mid afternoon through early
evening, as an MCV produced by the MCS now over N IL into SW MI is
expected to track through the Mid Atlantic region, bringing a shot
of better mid level flow on the south end of the MCV. Several AI
models and the HRRR neural net output show this potential for
isolated strong storms across our northern tier today, however the
HREF joint probability of CAPE>750 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear
over 20 kts in our area is low, spotty and under 20%, with the
higher chances well N of the VA border within the better shear. That
said, with moderate SBCAPE and high DCAPE over 1500, an isolated
pulse cell or two producing strong downburst winds is certainly
possible. Regardless, the coverage today appears to be low and
confined to those northern areas, and model timing would suggest
that any storms will be largely gone by around 9 PM.

Convection coverage Sun will similarly be limited by the persistent
(but waning) upper ridge over much of the area, but as this ridge
center drifts to the S and E, slowly placing us in a more cyclonic
steering flow drawing weak perturbations from the mid-lower Miss
Valley and Mid South across W NC, we`ll have a better chance of
seeing late-day convection over the NC mountains drifting E into the
sharpening in situ Piedmont trough late in the day, supporting
scattered late-day showers and storms primarily in the Triad region.

By Mon into Tue, as the weakening and flattening ridge shifts
further to our S, amplifying shortwave troughing over the Midwest
will track ESE through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, keeping a
positive tilt as it shifts into the Northeast states extending to
the central and southern Appalachians. The approach of the attendant
surface cold front, the increase in cyclonic flow aloft, the
potential arrival of old outflows and MCVs from upstream convective
complexes, and the trend to above-normal PW ahead of the trough all
support a ramping up of pops for Mon-Tue, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Pops should then take a downturn and
shift to mainly S and SE sections Wed as the shortwave trough shifts
offshore with a NW mid level flow, and the surface front settles
into NC and the high-PW axis pushes to near our southern border.
This axis of peak PW may buckle back northward over NC by Thu,
suggesting more climo pops, but given the expected trend toward much
weaker and more summertime mid level flow S of the Ohio Valley and
Mason-Dixon line, confidence in forcing features and moisture
availability to influence pops will be low.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
High clouds from earlier convection to the west are moving east
across central NC and will continue to do so through the morning.
Some few to scattered 5-7 kft clouds are expected later today.
Although an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO
late this afternoon, confidence wasn`t high enough to include a
PROB30 mention at this time. The wind will remain light out of the
south.

Outlook: Some MVFR stratus cannot be ruled out at RDU/RWI/FAY around
sunrise Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible once again
Sunday afternoon at INT/GSO, with widespread precipitation and
restrictions at all terminals Monday and Tuesday, becoming more
scattered on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of
Occurrence:

KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21

Record High Temperatures:

July 4: KGSO: 98/1970  KRDU: 101/twice KFAY: 98/2019
July 5: KGSO: 98/2012  KRDU: 106/2024  KFAY: 101/twice
July 6: KGSO: 100/1977 KRDU: 102/1999  KFAY: 100/2024

All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date
of Occurrence:

KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
July 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024
July 7: KGSO: 73/2024 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>041-043.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-073>078-083>086-
088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/GIH
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH