Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS62 KRAH 051033
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

1) Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue for the next several days, mainly each afternoon through
evening, with the better chances in our NW. But a general decrease
in coverage is expected this weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue for the next several days, mainly each
afternoon through evening, with the better chances in our NW. But a
general decrease in coverage is expected this weekend through early
next week.

The weakening mid level low now over far N GA will continue a slow
northward drift into E KY today, then track NE and dissipate, as
broad northern stream troughing over the N Plains and Upper Midwest
early this morning shifts E toward the Great Lakes. The result will
be a weak baggy shear axis holding just to our W through tonight, on
the W side of a strengthening anticyclone off the Mid Atlantic
coast. At the surface, a weak and nearly stationary frontal zone
will remain just to our W and N, along the western edge of the
encroaching ridge to our E, leaving us within an otherwise ill-
defined surface pattern with light winds amidst a loose MSLP
pressure pattern. We`ll have one more day of high PWs, up to 125% of
normal, so expect at least scattered coverage of showers and storms,
with coverage peaking mid afternoon through early evening. Morning
clouds will once again be slow to lift and break up, but afternoon
cloud breaks will allow for moderate CAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg,
along with deep layer bulk shear a bit higher than on Tue but still
only around 20 kt. A few heavy downpours will remain possible today,
although the slowly waning PW and uptick in cell motion should keep
this threat a little lower than yesterday and focused more on the
western half.

The weak flow pattern will hold through late week as the offshore
ridge continues to build, resulting in gradually rising heights over
NC, especially in the E. The mid level flow will increase slightly
from the SW the WSW over the weekend as the broad Great Lakes trough
shifts slowly E and weakens over the Mid Atlantic region, bringing
the aforementioned shear axis into our NW sections. Near-climo
chance pops are likely to continue through late week and into the
weekend, focused primarily in the NW (near the shear axis aloft with
more favorable mid level lapse rates) and SE (from sea breeze
action). The retrograding ridge is expected to flatten and build
over FL/GA/SC early next week as the broad northern stream trough
weakens further over the Mid Atlantic/Northeast, shunting the shear
axis well to our west and resulting in a weak W flow while surface
lee troughing develops over the Piedmont. This should produce an
overall downturn in pops early to mid portion of next week, with
near to below normal PW, lowering mid level lapse rates, and a weak
mid level flow. Temps will not deviate more than a few degrees from
normal until Sun or Mon onward, when highs should trend to the lower
to mid 90s with lows generally 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 632 AM Wednesday...

Widespread flight restrictions with low stratus will remain the
primary concern this morning. Widespread LIFR to IFR ceilings and a
few areas with MVFR visibilities currently being observed across the
region will continue for the next few hours. A few showers will
continue to move north mainly affecting KFAY. The low stratus will
lift this morning, returning all sites to VFR or MVFR before noon
with light southerly winds. Isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible once again, primarily impacting
eastern terminals in the late afternoon with brief restrictions.
Storm coverage looks lower across the Triad, but still possible.

Outlook: Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible
through late week, with reduced coverage by the weekend. Early
morning stratus and fog restrictions will be possible each night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...CA