Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS62 KRAH 082314
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing significant

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

1) Thursday through Friday remains the time period for potential
rain, although this part of the forecast remains quite uncertain.

2) Patchy frost may be possible Tuesday morning, but widespread
freezing conditions appear likely Friday night and Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Thursday through Friday remains the time period for
potential rain, although this part of the forecast remains quite
uncertain.

While a low pressure center is expected to develop along the Gulf
Stream mid-week and track to the northeast over the Atlantic Ocean,
it does not appear that any of the rain from that system will affect
central North Carolina. Any precipitation that does occur locally
will be with a cold front associated with a low that develops across
the central Plains on Wednesday and tracks northeast into Ohio by
Thursday morning. While there is reasonable model agreement through
that part of the forecast, the future development of the low after
that is what the GFS/ECMWF model families differ on, and where the
uncertainty comes from in the local forecast. The low has been
tracking slightly farther north with time, which puts North Carolina
farther away from the best dynamics, limiting both the potential and
amount of rain. The current forecast calls for a 20-40% chance of
rain with the cold front on Thursday, highest across the north, with
decreasing chances Thursday night, and just a slight chance north
and east of the Triangle Friday. Any rain that does occur would
likely be light, less than a tenth of an inch.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Patchy frost may be possible Tuesday morning, but
widespread freezing conditions appear likely Friday night and
Saturday night.

With high pressure moving into eastern Tennessee and western North
Carolina Monday night, temperatures should drop close to freezing in
some locations. With clear skies and light winds, radiational
cooling appears quite likely that night. While there will not be a
widespread potential for below freezing temperatures, some locations
may drop below 31. Rural areas primarily north of US-64 may need a
frost advisory for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Behind Thursday`s cold front, high temperatures will be noticeably
cooler on Friday, with most locations only rising into the 50s. Lows
should be in the 30s everywhere Friday night, and most places will
be below freezing except for southeastern counties. With the wind
continuing to come out of the northwest, Saturday, Saturday night,
and Sunday will show little improvement. If the forecast did not
change between now and Saturday night, every county would need
either a frost advisory or a freeze warning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24-hour TAF period. Light
winds overnight picking up mid to late morning 5-10kts. Gradually
increasing surface dewpoints during peak heating coupled with light
stirring to calm conditions overnight may allow for banks of shallow
mist/fog to develop around FAY between 9-13z, but confidence in
occurrence remains low as periodic light winds should mitigate pure
radiational cooling. Local effects around RWI may also allow for
BCFG from 6-10z, but winds should be more stirred here and favor
mostly dew, thus did not add to 00Z TAF package.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF outlook
period. A late-week system could bring sub-VFR restrictions within
rain/showers Thursday into Friday, along with brisk NW post-
frontal winds Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...CA