Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS62 KRAH 151742
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increase in precipitation chances Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 140 PM Monday...

1) Isolated showers are possible across our southern zones Tuesday
into Wednesday, but the best chance for widespread showers and
thunderstorms will come on Friday with a cold front.

2) Potentially hazardous heat Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated showers are possible across our southern
zones Tuesday into Wednesday, but the best chance for widespread
showers and thunderstorms will come on Friday with a cold front.

Gorgeous weather has developed this afternoon in the wake of the
cold frontal passage. Dewpoints have also improved, lowering into
the upper 40s to 50s, lowest across the Piedmont and highest over
the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Cooler highs today will also extend
into Tue with high pressure settling down tonight and part of Tue
from VA and the southern Appalachians. The front will settle across
northern SC as a wave of low pressure develops off the SE coast of
NC Tue morning. Between the high to our north and the low, this will
favor a persistent northeasterly to easterly flow through tomorrow.
Our lowest highs will be on Tue with low to mid 80s area-wide.

Mid and high cloud cover increases tonight and tomorrow in
connection to a southern stream wave at mid-levels. Most of this
energy will skirt to our south but isolated showers could develop
Tue across the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, though mainly
focus across far eastern NC.

A slightly better chance of precipitation comes Tue night to Wed
morning tied to slow moisture return and low-level WAA atop the
stalled frontal zone. Some CAMs also suggest weak elevated
instability into Wed morning, perhaps driven in part by an upper-
level jet streak overhead. A few hundredths of an inch of rain is
possible, mainly over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

A cold front will extend along the majority of the Ohio River valley
on Thursday, slowly moving across the Appalachians on Friday and
continuing across the Southeast by Saturday. While an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across western counties Thursday
afternoon, the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will
come Friday afternoon and Friday evening, with the bulk of the rain
moving out by Saturday morning. The current rainfall forecast calls
for between a quarter and a half inch of rainfall. The Storm
Prediction Center keeps the 15% probability of severe thunderstorms
for Thursday north of the forecast area into southern Virginia, and
their confidence was not enough to include a 15% area anywhere for
Friday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Potentially hazardous heat Thursday

After several days in the last week had triple digit heat indices,
cooler and drier air has moved into the region behind today`s cold
front. However, Thursday does appear to be the one upcoming day
where air temperatures and humidity will increase enough to pose a
threat. The current forecast calls for highs in the mid to upper 90s
along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This will result in
heat index values around heat advisory threshold of 105 degrees.
Enough cloud cover and precipitation should move in on Friday to
reduce the heat threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period. Northwesterly wind gusts will range from 15-18 kt this
afternoon, before relaxing tonight out of the east and northeast
into Tuesday. High clouds will increase at all terminals tonight
through Tuesday ahead of a weak system to our south.

Outlook: Moisture return tied to a southern stream wave may bring
isolated showers and brief sub-VFR conditions Tue night to Wed
morning, most favored at FAY/RWI. Breezy southwesterly winds of 15kt
gusting to 25-35 kts develop Thu into Fri, maximized with daytime
heating. A late-week cold front and surface wave will favor a return
of showers/storms in the Thu/Fri time frame, although confidence
remains low on timing and location.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015  KFAY: 102/1944


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 77/2025  KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970  KRDU: 73/2025  KFAY: 77/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Green
AVIATION...AK
CLIMATE...RAH