Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS62 KRAH 040621
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
121 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Potential for meaningful measurable rain now focusing on
  Friday with the potential for a rather unsettled day,
  especially during the afternoon and evening.

* Raised low temperatures for Thursday night.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

1) An increase in deep layer moisture combined with a series of
disturbances aloft and eventually a cold front will result in
an increasing chance of showers for late Wednesday into Thursday
that maximizes on Friday.

2) Well above normal temperatures on Wednesday and especially
Thursday with muggy conditions will fall to near levels
seasonable by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An increase in deep layer moisture combined with a
series of disturbances aloft and eventually a cold front will
result in an increasing chance of showers for late Wednesday
into Thursday that maximizes on Friday.

A rather active mid and upper level pattern across the CONUS for the
rest of the work week features a weakening short wave trough that
lifts across the Deep South into the southern Appalachians on
Wednesday night with trailing energy that moves across NC early
Thursday. A stronger short wave moves across the OH Valley on
Friday and then into the mid-Atlantic on Friday night. While the
best forcing for ascent tracks north of the Carolinas, ascent
will be sufficient and supplemental by an advancing cold front
the briefly stalls across the western Carolinas on Thursday
night and is then nudged eastward by the mid/upper trough with
the front crossing the Carolinas on Friday afternoon and Friday
night. It`s worth highlighting that precipitable water values
across central NC range between 1.5 and 2.0 inches which is from
225 to 250% of normal! There is the potential that rainfall
amounts may be enhanced by convection although limited
instability and modest lapse rates will likely preclude the
ability of deep convection to utilize the 30-60 kts of deep
shear for severe storms.

Despite all of the ingredients for rain, the main players in this
event have evolved considerably as the event has drawn closer
and the forecast still contains a greater than typical amount
of uncertainty. Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through
Friday night in the quarter to half inch range appear
reasonable. As noted in the previous discussion, the possible
ranges of QPF are large. for instance the latest EC ENS ensemble
has the 10th percentile ranging from 0.10-0.25" and the 90th
ranging from to 1-1.5 inches. There is growing confidence that
a very large portion of this rainfall will occur on Friday,
especially Friday afternoon across eastern areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Well above normal temperatures on Wednesday
and especially Thursday with muggy conditions will fall to near
levels seasonable by Sunday and Monday.

A warm airmass will spread into central NC this work week with low
level thickness values climbing into the 1380s m on Thursday
morning. This will support highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
warmest on Thursday when highs will be 13 to 17 degrees above
average. Clouds and a southerly flow on Wednesday and Thursday night
will result in a warm and muggy night. A common pattern recognition
technique is that the night before a cold frontal passage is
often quite warm given the clouds and nocturnal southerly wind.
Lows on Friday morning should range in the lower and mid 60s
which is 20 to 26 degrees above average!

Temperatures will cool down to near average early next week
with highs in the lower to mid 60s for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Patchy fog has begun to develop across parts of central NC, and it
is likely to get more widespread overnight before lifting by mid-
morning. Some MVFR stratus is also possible this morning, especially
in the west, before VFR returns everywhere in the afternoon. Winds
will be mostly calm tonight, increasing to 5-10 kts during the day
and veering to the S/SE.

Outlook: Increasing moisture combined with a series of upper level
disturbances and a cold front will result in in increasing chances
of showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday
and especially on Friday which may result in adverse aviation
conditions. Improving conditions are expected for Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KGSO: 83/1946
KRDU: 84/1946
KFAY: 86/1974

November 5:
KGSO: 82/1914
KRDU: 85/2003
KFAY: 86/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KGSO: 65/2003
KRDU: 66/1977
KFAY: 67/2003

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes
AVIATION...Danco/Blaes