Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS62 KRAH 280909
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
409 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

* Confidence continues to increase for at least light measurable
  snow in central NC Fri night into Sun morning; and the potential
  exists for significant snow. However, considerable uncertainty
  remains regarding amounts and related impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

1) Confidence continues to grow in at least measurable snowfall in
central NC Fri night into Sun morning, but considerable uncertainty
remains with an incredibly wide range of potential snowfall amounts
and related impacts.

2) A prolonged period of Arctic cold and well below average
temperatures will turn even colder during and following a winter
storm that appears increasingly likely to impact cntl NC this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence continues to grow in at least measurable
snowfall in central NC Fri night into Sun morning, but considerable
uncertainty remains with an incredibly wide range of potential
snowfall amounts and related impacts.

A polar vortex initially over James Bay will be drawn swd and across
ern ON and the Great Lakes this week, while probably elongating and
splitting, with one piece likely to progress across Atlantic Canada
and another forecast to pivot across the Southeast and along and
offshore the coasts of the Middle Atlantic and New England through
the weekend.

At the surface, cyclogenesis appears likely just off the Southeast
coast, where a weaker but still prevalent baroclinic zone is
forecast over the Gulf Stream. The primary front is expected to be
still draped across the Bahamas, setting up a probable instant
occlusion low surface pattern. The low off the Carolina coast is
expected to rapidly deepen Sat into Sat night, as stronger synoptic
ascent overspreads the Gulf stream and the main synoptic front is
pulled northward. On the backside of the low, an Arctic airmass will
become locked in over the Mid-Atlantic as the low deepens off the
coast, resulting in potentially record breaking low max temperatures
during the event.

This pattern is favorable for at least light snow with a high
snow/liquid ratio within central NC, but also brings an incredibly
difficult forecast challenge related to a deformation band on the
north and west side of the deepening low. The likelihood of band
formation, let alone its timing and placement, remains a point of
considerable uncertainty and may not be ironed out until 1-2 days
before the event begins. However, the top analogs and latest suite
of 00z model guidance highlights at least the potential for
significant snowfall totals somewhere from the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic.

There are a few failure modes for this setup which would result in
less precipitation over central NC. The first is the placement and
the latitude the mid/upper level low closes; minor adjustments will
have potentially significant ramifications on if/when/where the
deformation band sets up. The second is that some degree of
cyclogenesis will occur along the primary baroclinic zone over the
Bahamas and may draw stronger ascent, moisture, and related liquid
equivalent and snow amounts away from the instant occlusion-type,
nearer-shore coastal low.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of Arctic cold and well below
average temperatures will turn even colder during and following a
winter storm that appears increasingly likely to impact cntl NC this
weekend.

Forecast confidence is higher in an Arctic airmass in place, one
continually replenished from the Arctic, which will become further
locked in as the cyclone off the coast deepens. The result will be
bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills as early as Fri
night, but especially Saturday through Sunday night. Blustery winds
from the tight pressure gradient will result in multiple nights of
wind chills in the single digits to even below zero possible Sat
night into Sun morning. Daytime wind chills won`t be much of a
relief, as maximum apparent temps only reach into the teens Sat and
Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...

Arctic high pressure will extend across the Southeast and favor VFR
conditions over cntl NC through the 06Z TAF period, and beyond
through most of this week. Initially light, nwly surface winds this
morning will back through wly today, while strengthening and
becoming at least occasionally gusty mainly at Piedmont sites and
RWI this afternoon.

Outlook: An unusually strong mid and upper-level low, and related
coastal low pressure, will favor a high probability of flight
restrictions and snow, potentially significant, over cntl NC Fri
night through Sun morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Temperatures:

January 28: KGSO: -2/1940, KRDU:  1/2000, KFAY: 10/1935
January 29: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  7/2000, KFAY: 11/1986
January 30: KGSO:  4/1966, KRDU:  7/2014, KFAY:  8/2014
January 31: KGSO:  3/1966, KRDU:  3/1966, KFAY:  9/1934
February 1: KGSO: -4/1936, KRDU:  8/1981, KFAY:  1/1936
February 2: KGSO:  6/1971, KRDU:  5/1971, KFAY: 15/1971

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 28: KGSO: 23/1986, KRDU: 23/1897, KFAY: 32/1961
January 29: KGSO: 23/1966, KRDU: 27/2014, KFAY: 28/2014
January 30: KGSO: 13/1966, KRDU: 19/1966, KFAY: 29/1966
January 31: KGSO: 22/1936, KRDU: 27/1948, KFAY: 22/1966
February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/AS
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH