Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS62 KRAH 140636
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat and humidity reach dangerous levels late this week and
  weekend.

* Storm chances most favored during the latter part of the weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

1) Heating up by Wed, with increasing humidity levels and dangerous
heat Fri-Sun.

2) Rain and storm chances increase this weekend, though timing and
coverage remain unclear.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heating up by Wed, with increasing humidity levels
and dangerous heat Fri-Sun.

Not much has changed with the expectation of heat and humidity
returning to central NC. Highs in the 90s will return as early as
Wednesday, and remain in the forecast largely into early next week.
A 594-dm ridge will build into the region Wednesday and be in place
at least into Saturday. The heat is not expected to be as worrisome
Wed-Thu as afternoon dewpoints mix out into the low to perhaps
middle 60s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will increasingly
be favored during the daytime Fri-Sun and likely into Monday. The
worst of the heat is expected Fri-Sat with widespread mid/upper 90s
with a few areas reaching the century mark and heat indices of 102
to 108 degrees. The HeatRisk largely maxes out at a level 3 out of 4
during this time period. Increasing storm chances may limit heat-
advisory criteria during the latter part of the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain and storm chances increase this weekend,
though timing and coverage remain unclear.

With most ensemble guidance showing a 594-dm ridge over the region
into at least Saturday, the chance of diurnal afternoon and evening
convection appears limited. Some scenarios indicate that a weak
disturbance could get entrained into the flow Fri for a few isolated
storms, but this is highly conditional. Ensemble guidance is in much
better agreement that ridging breaks down over the latter part of
the weekend and early next week. As that happens, lee troughing and
a slowly approaching cold front from the north could serve as lift
for storm development. As our prior discussion mentioned, there is
still quite a degree of spread in how this evolves, dependent upon
the timing, placement, and strength of a developing northwest flow
pattern. For now, the best chance of storms would appear Sun and Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

All sites are currently VFR with ceilings ranging from 4k to 6k ft
across the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
at most sites between 06z-12z, then persist through 13z-15z then
clear back out to VFR conditions. A few lingering showers across the
south are expected to dissipate by early morning.

Looking beyond:, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through much
of the week, although patchy sub-VFR stratus and fog may occur at
FAY near daybreak Wed/Thu. Isolated late-day storms are possible
Fri, then chances rise to scattered PM storms by Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.CLIMATE...


Record High Temperatures:

July 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887 KFAY: 103/1937

July 17: KGSO: 101/1915 KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932

July 18: KGSO: 97/1986

July 19: KFAY: 101/2002


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 16: KFAY: 78/1992

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019

July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KRDU: 80/2025 KFAY: 77/2025

July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 80/1942 KFAY: 77/2023

July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2025 KFAY: 80/1996



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CA/Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH