Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

192
FXUS62 KRAH 120709
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

* No major changes to the weekend storm system. Confidence remains
  high in widespread beneficial rainfall this weekend, mainly from
  late Sat night through Sun night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

1) We`ll have low humidity over much of the area today, but wind
gusts are likely to hold below fire weather thresholds.

2) Steady light to moderate rain expected late Sat night through Sun
night. While much of the rainfall will be beneficial given the
current drought conditions, isolated pockets of heavier rain could
lead to standing water on roads in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... We`ll have low humidity over much of the area
today, but wind gusts are likely to hold below fire weather
thresholds.

As yesterday`s cold front settles to our S today, dry surface air
filtering in from the N combined with temps reaching highs in the
50s to near 60 most places will lead to low relative humidity over
central NC today. This will especially be the case over the
Sandhills and S/W Piedmont, where minimum RH is likely to be in the
18% to 25% range. While it will be breezy today with winds from the
NW, gusts are expected to be no higher than 20-25 mph, below
thresholds that might bring about significant fire weather concerns.
However, forestry officials will be consulted this morning as we
further assess weather and fuel conditions, especially given the
paucity of rainfall yesterday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Steady light to moderate rain expected late Sat
night through Sun night. While much of the rainfall will be
beneficial given the current drought conditions, isolated pockets of
heavier rain could lead to standing water on roads in some locations.

A strong mid/upper level short-wave will move across the southern
Plains Saturday before moving across the Deep South/Southeast Sunday
into Monday. This system will feature a swly surge of anomalous PWAT
(up to ~1 to 1.25 inches; ~200 to 250 % of normal) into central NC
by Sunday afternoon.

The GFS/GEFS is still the slowest solution with the upper wave
diving the further south compared to the EPS/GEPS. However, given
the anomalous moisture flux expected over our area, solid isentropic-
driven rainfall is likely even if the GFS/GEFS solution is realized.
As such, we have pretty high confidence at this point in a
beneficial rain for majority of central NC during this period. The
12Z GEFS did also pivot some higher QPF further up into central NC
(previous runs kept higher totals to our south). Even the 5th
percentile across all ensembles paints at least a few tenths of an
inch of rain across central NC. All of this adds confidence to a
solid rain event for our area. While this rain will be beneficial in
most areas considering the ongoing dry conditions, the latest LREF
shows a nearly 50% chance of >1" in under 24 hrs over portions of
the Piedmont. Locally higher rainfall totals could lead to some
minor urban flooding and water on roads in some locations, but
no significant or widespread flooding is expected.

Latest guidance continues to trend towards a faster retreating high
to our north. As such, this will favor an in-situ CAD type. Daytime
highs may warm a bit more than previously thought (highs in upper
40s to low 50s NW to around 60 SE).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions will hold across central NC for the next 24
hours, with high confidence. A backdoor cold front will settle
to our S through today as high pressure builds in from the NW
and N. A period of bkn mid clouds based at 12k-15k ft AGL is
expected across the area today, mainly from 14z to 23z, but
otherwise only sct mid and high clouds are expected. Sfc winds
will be from the NW today, shifting to NNW and N by sunset, with
speeds generally under 10 kts but will be 10-13 kts gusting to
17-22 kts from mid morning through this afternoon.

Outlook beyond 06z Fri: VFR conditions will dominate through
Sat, then a trend to sub-VFR conditions is likely Sat night,
persisting through Sun night, with periods of rain. Conditions
should return to VFR Mon, but with gusty winds. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Luchetti
AVIATION...Hartfield