Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS62 KRAH 101735
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

* Wind gusts and highs were raised for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

1) Very warm temperatures through Wednesday with an airmass typical
of early July.

2) A Strong cold front brings showers Thursday, with a low-end
threat for strong to severe storms in our southeast counties.

3) Another strong cold front moving through the region Sunday night
and Monday may bring another low-end severe weather threat, mainly
in our southeast. Well below normal temperatures are possible next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Very warm temperatures through Wednesday with
an airmass typical of early July.

The morning clouds and some patchy light rain has largely dissipated
this afternoon with full sunshine for the rest of the afternoon.
Some weak energy near the NC mountains will track east into the
early evening hours. This energy could bring a few patchy showers
over the southern Piedmont and Sandhills, but most CAM solutions
keep the area dry.

The main story the rest of today and especially tomorrow is very
warm to near hot temperatures. Afternoon highs today will top out in
the low to middle 80s, some 20-25 degrees above normal. Tomorrow,
low-level thicknesses rise to around 1410m, typical of early July.
As such, we raised highs on Wednesday with the latest guidance
suggesting widespread upper 80s to near 90, warmest in the
Sandhills. These highs are likely to break records (see climate
section). Wind gusts tomorrow afternoon will pick up ahead of the
frontal system approaching late Wed night. Gusts from the southwest
of 25 to 30 mph are possible, with some infrequent gusts to 35 mph
at times.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A Strong cold front brings showers Thursday, with
a low-end threat for strong to severe storms in our southeast counties.

Guidance continues to be in good agreement that a strong cold front
will move through during the day on Thursday. Similar to the prior
forecast, much of the rain/showers will occur from early Thu morning
into early Thu afternoon. Because the front is pushing through in
the morning hours, instability continues to be a limiting factor for
strong storm potential. SPC continues to mention limited heating and
poor lapse rates precluding strong destabilization. If stronger
heating were to be realized, it would be favored over the eastern
Sandhills to the Coastal Plain, where some AI convective models
continue to indicate a low-end threat. Rainfall amounts look similar
to what we have been discussing prior, with a quarter to one half
inch of rain, with the low-end around a tenth to two tenths of an
inch. Behind the front, some gusts from the NW may range from 25-30
mph in the afternoon to early evening, but should dissipate Thu
evening/night as cool high pressure builds in from the west.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Another strong cold front moving through the region
Sunday night and Monday may bring another low-end severe weather threat,
mainly in our southeast. Well below normal temperatures are possible
next week.

After the passage of the cold front on Thursday, temperatures will
drop closer to normal on Friday, before increasing back to around 10-
15 degrees above normal by Sunday. The next best chance of rain and
possible embedded storms will be Sunday night into Monday. LREF
cluster analysis suggests that pre-frontal rain may start as early
as late Sunday afternoon, with the rain with the front occurring
later Sunday and overnight. In the pre-frontal rain Sunday
afternoon, a few storms could be stronger as temperatures are
expected to be in the 70s, with dewpoints approaching 60. Cluster
analysis is also showing a few different solutions for the timing of
the frontal passage, with 1 of 4 clusters showing the front moving
through Monday afternoon instead of Monday morning. If this were to
occur, severe chances would be larger on Monday as there will be
more instability with additional daytime heating. However, at
this time, most of the model solutions are showing an earlier
frontal passage, lessening the chances for stronger storms.
Also, if the cold air is able to get in faster and precipitation
is slow to exit, a brief period of light snow may be possible
Monday night. However, only 1 of 4 clusters show 20% of at least
0.1 inch of snow, meaning that this is not likely at this time.


The front is expected to drop temperatures by around 20 degrees,
with lows dropping near to below freezing in the northwest on Monday
night and then everywhere Tuesday night. Highs also look like they
may only rise into the 40s to low 50s Tuesday afternoon. This would
be about 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through
much of the 24 hour TAF period.  Some guidance suggest patchy fog or
stratus early Wednesday morning, but increasing high clouds should
help mitigate this. Light southwesterly flow through tonight will
strengthen on Wednesday with sustained 10-15kt gusting up to 25-30kt.

 Outlook: A strong cold front bringing showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, sub-VFR conditions, and gusty winds on Thursday. VFR
returns Fri into Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Helock
AVIATION...BLS
CLIMATE...RAH