Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

572
FXUS62 KRAH 300547
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 AM Friday...

1) Today may be the last 80 degree day for the season at many
locations, with well above normal temperatures forecast.

2) Widespread cloud cover and mostly virga expected late Sat night
into Mon. Good chance for measurable rain Wed into Fri, but timing
and amounts remain highly uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Today may be the last 80 degree day for the season
at many locations, with well above normal temperatures forecast.

Some patchy fog may occur again this morning, with the I-95 corridor
the favored location today. However, the low clouds and fog should
clear by late morning, with just a few passing high clouds this
afternoon. While typical conversations revolve around the first and
last 90 degree days of the year, today may be a day to talk about
the last 80 degree day of the year. This typically occurs on October
21 at Greensboro, October 31 at RDU, and November 11 at
Fayetteville. Have added a climate section below in the discussion
as this forecast package increased the forecast highs at all three
climate sites, although record highs are not forecast to be reached
(values ranging from 84 to 87). A dry cold front will push south
into North Carolina tonight, dropping high temperatures to a range
from the mid 60s to the mid 70s on Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread cloud cover and mostly virga expected
late Sat night into Mon. Good chance for measurable rain Wed into
Fri, but timing and amounts remain highly uncertain.

Confidence continues to increase in a dry, no measurable rain,
forecast for this weekend into Mon as most model guidance trends
towards mostly increasing cloud cover and at best non-measurable
very light rain falling from mid-lvl cloud bases. Moisture loosely
associated with remnants of TC Vance is still expected to lift into
the central Plains tonight into Sat before slowly spreading out
across the eastern CONUS into early next week. However, most of this
moisture will likely remain in the mid/upper-lvls once reaching the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a reinforcing surge of cooler and
drier air will precede the influx of moisture. Lift remains very
limited and mostly confined to a sharpening upper trough and any mid-
lvl disturbances within the shearing out wave. The deterministic GFS
appears to be the final hold out and still brings minor
accumulations within a stronger mid-lvl wave, but this solution is
an outlier at this point. Near to slightly above normal PWAT values,
again confined mostly to the mid/upper levels, will likely still
combine with the forcing from the upper trough to support increasing
cloud cover and periods of virga, but this chance for measurable
rain appears to have dried up.

The better signal for measurable rainfall continues to be sometime
within the Wed into Fri night timeframe as a strong mid/upper low
shifts from the West Coast on Sun into the Central Plains and MS
Valley into the mid-week timeframe. How this feature will develop
and evolve is understandably uncertain as the driving features will
not phase until this weekend with potentially additional smaller
scale waves influencing its evolution into the late week period.
Looking closer from a global and AI ensemble guidance hardly paints
a picture for significant rain. The wettest ensemble solution is the
AIGEFS and its 50th percentile 24 hour QPF ranges from 0.25 to 0.5"
across the Carolinas, greatest in the mountains. Whether the warm
front is able to lift into or even through our area (to increase
instability and rain rates) is highly uncertain and further
complicated by a trend within the AIFS ensemble, which is
highlighting a surface low development closer to the Carolina coast,
which would persist northerly winds across the area and keep central
NC within stratiform precipitation and greatly limiting the higher-
end rainfall potential.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

October 30:
KGSO: 84/2016
KRDU: 86/1996
KFAY: 87/1950

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR TAFs at INT/GSO, while there is
high confidence in IFR/LIFR conditions at RWI.  Vertical soundings
show a very thin layer of moisture will remain at RWI overnight, and
considering how early 1/2 mile restrictions began there, expect that
restrictions will continue through the night. As to RDU/FAY, the
signal for ground fog is not as strong, but remains a possibility.
With the 06Z TAF package, will maintain the inherited TEMPO groups
for MVFR restrictions at those sites. The wind should be calm to
light and variable overnight, then become northerly around 5 kt
after sunrise.

Outlook: A cold front Friday night will shift the wind to the
northeast. The weekend continues to trend drier with less moisture,
and dry VFR conditions may continue through Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Swiggett
AVIATION...Green