Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

869
FXUS62 KRAH 181725
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1224 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1224 PM Sunday...

* Overall snow chances have decreased this afternoon to early
  evening before precipitation band exits. Only a minor dusting at
  best is expected.
* Black ice possible tonight but confidence is not great

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1224 PM Sunday...

1) Precipitation shield comes to an end early this evening, with
potential black ice as lows drop into the mid to upper 20s. A brief
1-3 hr window on the tail end of the precipitation shield could mix
with snow, but little to no accumulation is expected.

2) Cold arctic air expected early next week.  Otherwise, two
opportunities for precip in the long term period, but with low
confidence at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1224 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Precipitation shield comes to an end early this
evening, with potential black ice as lows drop into the mid to upper
20s. A brief 1-3 hr window on the tail end of the precipitation
shield could mix with snow, but little to no accumulation is
expected.

We are now in the nowcasting phase of the precipitation event for
the rest of today. A lot of the morning has been examining how
observational trends are comparing to the global and regional
models. Overall, observations have been running warmer than the
colder and worst-case scenario model solutions. The HRRR and RAP
have been most closely matching what has been observed so far, with
the NAM-NEST and NAM too cold. In fact, the 12z NAM-NEST appears to
be trending in line with the warmer solutions.

Observational analysis from the SPC Meso page, as well as radar dual-
pol data and ACARS soundings, indicate that the freezing level is
around 2 kft in the Triad, 3-4 kft in the Triangle, and 5-7 kft in
the Coastal Plain, as of 12 pm. Surface temperatures are running
upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE as of 12 pm. A gradual lowering of the
freezing level is expected by later this afternoon to early evening,
towards the end of the precipitation shield. This should allow for a
brief 1-3 hr period where snow could mix in or briefly be all snow
over the western and eastern Piedmont to the northeast Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain. However, there does appear to remain a warm
layer just above the surface up until precipitation end time, if the
HRRR still ends up verifying. Given that, any snow accumulation over
the Triangle and points N and E appear to be very minimal, to a
dusting at best, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Snow
potential will be very precipitation rate driven. If a heavy band
can setup, a brief period of snow will be possible. This best
potential should be between 2 and 6 pm.

Precipitation will come to an end early this evening, with
temperatures falling into the low to middle 30s by later this
evening. As for black ice potential, our confidence is not great. We
do appear to maintain a weak southwest flow in the low-levels and
the really cold air to our west over the TN valley and west of the
mountains of NC may not fully reach us until later Mon night. Given
that, we think low temperatures may not get as cold as previously
thought. Forecast lows were adjusted up to the mid to upper 20s, but
some HRRR/RAP data suggest we may stick in the upper 20s to near 30.
Any lingering wet spots from the rain may turn into patchy black
ice, but how extensive this may be is not clear. A Winter Weather
Advisory or special weather statement may be needed later tonight
after we assess trends in temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...  Monday, the region will be under weak mid/upper
level troughing, with surface winds generally from the southwest.
This will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the 40s,
generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Monday night, a reinforcing
dry Arctic cold front will move through central North Carolina,
further dropping low temperatures into the upper teens to low 20s.

Otherwise, the first opportunity for precip later in the week,
albeit a very low probability for said precip...will come with a
cold front on Thursday. The most recent models have been trending
drier, so I wouldn`t count on any precip for that period, at least
at this point, thus the low probability.  If there were to be
precip, P-type could be a concern at least in our western zones at
the very onset...but again, this is looking like a very low-risk
chance.

The second opportunity could some either next weekend or early next
week, but there are considerable differences in the models regarding
timing and p-types.  So for now, the low-end NBM PoPs during that
time look reasonable.  It`s too soon to get into details about p-
type given the wide differences among the various NWP solutions.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 AM Sunday...

As a storm system moves into the area, MVFR conditions are likely to
develop at all terminals prior to 14z, with areas of rain increasing
in coverage and becoming more steady. Then, by around 14z, central
NC terminals are expected to drop to IFR, and briefly LIFR. These
conditions will last until ~18z-21z at INT/GSO and until 21z-01z at
RDU/RWI/FAY, after which time a cold front sweeping in from the west
will clear out the clouds from NW to SE, resulting in a trend back
to VFR. The areas of rain are expected to be mixed or briefly change
to mostly wet snow for a few hours, mainly midday/early afternoon at
INT/GSO, and mid to late afternoon at RDU/RWI, with FAY likely
seeing all rain or just a brief rain/wet snow mixture in the late
afternoon before precip ends. Vsbys will periodically drop to MVFR
and IFR within the rain/snow mixture. There is a chance for patchy
shallow fog in the SE (including FAY) 07z-12z early Mon morning.
Surface winds will be light and variable, mainly from the N or NW,
for much of the day, then become uniformly from the NW in the
afternoon at 5-10 kts, before shifting to more W after nightfall
under 5 kts.

Looking beyond 12z Mon, dry/VFR conditions are likely to hold
through Thu, although a period of clouds and slight rain chances are
possible Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/np/LH
AVIATION...LH