Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

501
FXUS62 KRAH 071801
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Warmer temperatures are forecast for tonight, meaning that a Frost
  Advisory isn`t needed at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

1) While some frost will still be possible tonight, additional cloud
cover should prevent lows from getting as cold as previously
forecast.

2) Rain chances and amounts appear insignificant through the
forecast period. Below normal temperatures and potential for
widespread frost/freeze next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... While some frost will still be possible tonight,
additional cloud cover should prevent lows from getting as cold as
previously forecast.

For a few days, tonight has looked to be the coldest night out of
the next several nights, and that remains the case. The limiting
factors for frost potential were always going to be whether the wind
would go calm and how much high cloud cover there would be, both of
which could be limiting factors. While the wind still appears that
it will be on the light side, which is not much of a change, the
latest RRFS shows quite a bit more cloud cover than previous
forecast runs. With the additional high clouds, most guidance has
brought overnight lows up by a few degrees, enough of a change that
it appears a Frost Advisory is not warranted at this time. Still
can`t rule out some patchy frost in the usual cold spots, and if
later runs of the RRFS indicate that high clouds will be limited, a
Frost Advisory might be needed.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances and amounts appear insignificant
through the forecast period. Below normal temperatures and potential
for widespread frost/freeze next weekend.

The forecast will likely remain dry through midweek as central NC
will be influenced by mostly anticyclonic northwest mid/upper-lvl
flow and disturbances within the southern stream remaining confined
to the Gulf Coast and Deep South through Wed. A highly amplified
mid/upper-lvl pattern is expected to evolve late week into the
weekend as the polar jet stream digs south and phases with the sub-
tropical jet on the east side of a developing Omega blocking
configuration Wed night into Fri before shifting east through the
weekend.

Deep-layer moisture return appears very limited in ensemble
solutions with rich Gulf moisture mostly directed across FL and into
the western Atlantic. Coupled with the general consensus of the
track of the associated surface low remaining north of the forecast
area (Ohio Valley across the central Appalachians and off the
Delmarva) impactful/beneficial rainfall appears unlikely. Reasonable
high-end amounts in 24 hours from 00z LREF are below 0.5" between
Thurs and Friday afternoon.

Higher confidence exists in arrival of below normal temperatures
late week into the weekend as low-lvl thickness fall into the 1320-
1300m range from available deterministic guidance. This would favor
the best chance for the first widespread frost/freeze of the season
as early as Fri morning, but more probable subsequent mornings over
the weekend into next week as surface high becomes more favorably
positioned and long-range cloud cover forecast favors mostly clear
skies for optimal radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions. Stronger winds have
likely peaked for the day, but there will be enough of a difference
between conditions this afternoon and overnight that a second line
in the TAFs is warranted for the eastern terminals. There should be
a wave of scattered/broken high clouds overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the
TAF outlook period. Except for Wednesday, there will be the
possibility for wind gusts to rise as high as 20 kt each afternoon,
generally with some sort of a westerly component.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Swiggett
AVIATION...Green