Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS62 KRAH 130540
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1240 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak southwest flow take over today across central NC. An Arctic
cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move through
the area Sunday. Arctic high pressure will then build over the
region Monday before southwest flow returns for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

Quiet weather is expected overall today. A stalled frontal boundary
over the region will lift north as a warm front this afternoon.
Southwest winds will take over between 5 and 10 mph. Expect a good
amount of sunshine with just some mid/high clouds streaming overhead
at times. Highs will be a few degrees above seasonal normals in the
mid 50s NW to approaching 60 in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Tonight, an Arctic cold front will approach from the northwest. The
front is likely to move through our Piedmont counties by early Sun
morning and the Coastal Plain a little after sunrise. Temperatures
will hover in the 40s most of the night, gradually falling into the
30s in the NW and low 40s in the SE by Sun morning. Ahead of the
front, we will see increasing clouds and a chance of rain, mainly
along/east of US-1, tied to the right entrance region of an upper-
level jet streak. CAM solutions and ptype nomograms suggest mainly
rain as the dominant ptype, but a few snowflakes could mix in over
the Triad as colder air filters in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

* Very cold wind chills in the single digits Sun night to early Mon
  with a combination of lows in the teens and gusts of 30 to 40 mph
  Sun evening. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed later
  today.

The Arctic cold front is slated to move through central NC Sunday
morning. Cold air advection will commence shortly thereafter, but
really take hold late Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night
as a 1040-mb Arctic high over the Mid MS valley settles into the
southern Appalachians early Mon. A brief period of rain mixing with
or changing to snow will be possible up until the late morning hours
for areas mainly along and south/east of Raleigh, from roughly a
line from Sanford to Rocky Mount and Roanoke Rapids. As cold air
continues to filter through, ptype nomograms suggest rain changing
to snow, with even perhaps a few sleet pellets mixing in. No snow
accumulation is expected. However, if any was to occur, a light
dusting could be possible over the far northern Coastal Plain, such
as Halifax or Edgecombe Counties.

The main story thereafter will be the bitter cold temperatures and
wind chills. We will likely see highs in the upper 30s NW to near 50
in Clinton. But temperatures will gradually fall into the low 30s NW
and low 40s SE by midday. NW winds of 15 to 30 mph will be possible
during the day. By Sun evening, temps will crash into the 20s and
teens as the CAA maximizes. The pressure gradient also strengthens,
such that NW wind gusts will increase into the 30 to 40 mph range.
Forecast soundings continue to show this post-frontal deep mixing.
We actually may briefly reach Wind Advisory criteria between 4 pm
and 10 pm as NAM/GFS soundings show infrequent gusts of 40-45 mph.
This could easily blow around unsecured holiday objects. Later
shifts will take a closer look at this. Additionally, a Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be issued later today or tonight for wind
chills in the single digits area-wide into early Mon as lows tumble
into the low to mid teens. Those gusty NW winds will taper off
slowly after midnight as the pressure gradient relaxes and the
Arctic high builds into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 131 PM Friday...

* Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills Sunday night through Mon
  morning behind a strong Arctic cold front

* Moderating temperatures with highs possibly in the 60s by Thu

Sunday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower
50s) and dry Saturday under zonal flow aloft, an anomalous upper
trough will eject out of central Canada and dive southeast across
the eastern US through Monday evening. Associated cold air will
spill down the east coast with some of the coldest air of the season
(850 mb temperatures will fall into the 1st to 2nd percentile
compared to climatology by Sunday night).

At the sfc, models have come into better agreement moving the arctic
front into central NC a bit early in the day Sunday. As such,
guidance has come in colder for highs on Sunday with highs in the
mid to upper 30s across the north, to mid 40s across the south. The
CAA will really ramp up Sunday afternoon into early Monday, with
lows dropping into the lower to mid teens Sunday night/Monday
morning (potentially our coldest lows since 2022). Forecast
soundings still indicate good post-frontal mixing potential through
~06Z Monday morning. As such, our forecasted apparent temperatures
are still nearing or below Cold Weather Advisory criteria for much
of our area. Will monitor trends one more day, but a Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be needed at least for our northern areas.

The frontal passage should be accompanied with some anomalous
moisture and light precipitation (although the GFS is less bullish
on precipitation). Depending on the timing of the precipitation,
there could be a transition to wintry ptype on the backside of the
exiting light precipitation band across the northern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain. However, not confident in 1) how much
precipitation will occur, and 2) whether it`ll catch the cold air or
not. Overall though, qpf amounts are minimal Saturday night/Sunday.

Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 30s with PWAT dropping to 20
% of normal.

Tuesday through Thursday: After another chilly night Monday into
Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will
develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and mid 50s
Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday and
Thursday which could be our next shot at any precipitation but still
lots of uncertainty in this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions for the 24-hour TAF
period. Weak SSE flow to start the period will become WSW between 5
and 10 kt Sat afternoon and evening. Ahead of an Arctic cold front
set to approach early Sun, some marginal LLWS may develop at RDU,
FAY, RWI after 06z Sun, as a strong 925-mb jet develops. Right now,
we opted to leave this out given low confidence.

Outlook: An Arctic cold front will move through Sunday morning,
bringing a chance of rain, perhaps briefly mixing with snow at RDU
and RWI, GSO, and INT. Some brief MVFR ceilings are possible early
Sun at RDU, FAY, and RWI. Otherwise, strong NW winds of 20 to 30 kt
will develop Sun afternoon, peaking Sun evening in the 25 to 35 kt
range, with infrequent gusts over 40 kt. Quiet VFR weather prevails
Mon through Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...AK