Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS62 KRAH 111723
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1223 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

* While meteorological conditions are still expected to support
  Increased Fire Danger over the Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain this
  afternoon, NCFS advised that snowmelt and related marginal fuel
  moisture values should mitigate the threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

1) Rain will become likely across srn zones mid-morning through
early afternoon; otherwise, it will remain unseasonably mild through
this evening.

2) High confidence in a period of at least light to moderate rain
late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details, such as amounts and
areal coverage, remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain will become likely across srn zones mid-
morning through early afternoon; otherwise, it will remain
unseasonably mild through this evening.

A couple of shortwave perturbations, evident in GOES-E Water Vapor
satellite data over the srn TN and lwr MS Valleys, will move
generally ewd and across the Southeast early today. A trough in the
nrn stream will amplify across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
later today and tonight, at the base of a mid/upr-level cyclone
forecast to track across srn QC and ME. Net, 50-80 meter mid-level
height falls will result across cntl NC through early tonight, while
a low-level warm air advection regime and associated maximum of
moisture transport will be directed across and offshore the
Carolinas through early this afternoon. The combination of the two
will maximize related forcing for ascent over cntl and srn NC
generally between 12-18Z, during which time around a tenth of an
inch or so of rain will likely result across the far srn Sandhills
and srn Coastal Plain, with just a few hundredths of an inch or less
otherwise and elsewhere.

Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front now stretching from sern WV
wswwd across Middle/wrn TN and the Mid-South, will progress sewd and
across the nrn half of cntl NC this morning and srn half by early to
mid-afternoon. The passage of the front will be highlighted by
marked drying of the low-levels, characterized by a decrease of
surface dewpoints through the 20s F and into the teens over the nrn
Piedmont, after pre-frontal ones around 50F or so. Downslope flow
will enhance that post-frontal drying and also delay any marked
cooling of the compressionally-warm boundary layer, with well above
average temperatures in the 60s today. Related afternoon RH will
decrease to around 25%. Nwly, post-frontal surface winds will also
increase and become gusty into the 20s kts and support
meteorological conditions supportive of Increased Fire Danger,
though the NCFS did not request any such statement owing to snowmelt
and marginal fuel moisture values.

Colder air will not arrive until a lee trough and effective,
secondary cold front lead post-frontal high pressure east of the
Appalachians tonight. A combination of continued nwly stirring, and
also what will probably be a thickening of orographic cirrus, will
keep temperatures mostly in the 30s and with morning lows within a
few degrees of average.


KEY MESSAGE 2... High confidence in a period of at least light to
moderate rain late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details, such as
amounts and areal coverage, remain uncertain.

A strong mid/upper level short-wave will move across the southern
Plains/Deep South Friday/Saturday before moving across the southeast
Sunday into Monday. This system will feature a swly surge of
anomalous PWAT ( up to ~1 to 1.25 inches; ~200 to 250 % of normal)
into central NC by Sunday afternoon.  At the sfc, a slowly
retreating high off the New England coast will extend lingering nely
flow across central NC Saturday/Sunday. Further west a sfc low will
develop somewhere over the TN valley before advecting east and
transferring energy to an offshore low through Monday via Miller B
style.

There remains disagreement with the evolution of the mid-level
shortwave/low as the GFS/GEFS keeps the stronger forcing to our
south (and consequently the max QPF footprint to our south).
Conversely, the ECMWF/EPS/GEPS brings the mid-level features
directly over us on Sunday, spreading higher amounts northward over
us and off the Carolina coast.  Will likely take a few more forecast
cycles to dial in amounts, but after collaborating with WPC, the QPF
forecast will take a "middle of the road" approach between these two
diverging scenarios.

Despite continued disagreement wrt to mid/upper features, there does
seem to be agreement wrt to the sfc low taking a path that at least
keeps our climatologically favored CAD locations locked into cool
nely flow.  The GFS develops a weaker coastal low compared to the
ECMWF, and shows perhaps some warmer temperatures creeping up into
our southern areas. Conversely, the ECMWF locks in chilly CAD temps
across the entire area.  After collaborating with WPC, a blend of
the 25th percentile will be applied to temperatures Sunday to better
capture this CAD potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the 24-hr TAF period. A cold front and some brief/patchy
light rain will move through KRWI and KFAY in the next hour or two.
In its wake expect breezy/gusty nwly winds and decreasing cloud
cover through this evening. Gusts should generally abate after
sunset, however a few lingering/intermittent gusts are possible
through midnight. Otherwise expect nwly winds at 5-10 kts overnight.
Forecast winds of 35-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer could
result in some borderline LLWS overnight, but expect enough stirring
at the surface to keep mention out for now.

Outlook: The next chance for precipitation and sub-VFR conditions
will be Sat night/Sun, otherwise expect dry weather and VFR
conditions to prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/NTL
AVIATION...KC