Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS62 KRAH 070726
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

* SPC is predicting a Marginal Risk for severe storms over all of
  central NC for Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

1) Marginal risk for severe weather Sunday. Unsettled weather
continues early next week through late week.

2) Continued very warm through at least mid week, with near record-
breaking temperatures possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Marginal risk for severe weather Sunday. Unsettled
weather continues early next week through late week.

A northern stream trough will lift across New England on Sunday. The
southern periphery of the upper jet (and associated weak mid-level
height falls) will just barely extend into central NC. Persistent
swly flow and moisture flux from the Gulf will maximize PWAT to
upwards of 250% of normal Sunday afternoon.  Pre-frontal showers and
storms appear likely Sunday aided by forcing along a pre-frontal sfc
trough and mid-level perturbations aloft.

Increasing swly flow in the lower levels in addition to the surging
moisture advection should promote MLCAPE of ~500 to 1000+ J/kg or so
by Sunday afternoon.  Additionally, bulk layer shear is expected to
increase to 30 to 40 kts during this period. As such, a few isolated
stronger storms could develop Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast
hodographs generally depict weak lower-level shear. However,
stronger mid level shear could support a few cells capable of
transient mid-level rotation (as is depicted in the 12/18Z NamNest).
Although forecasted mean-level flow appears to be more-so parallel
to the sfc boundary, and as such discrete supercells will likely be
difficult to develop.  Regardless, if any organized cells were to
form, the primary potential severe hazard would be isolated damaging
winds and possibly hail (steep mid-level lapse rates under the mid-
Atlantic jet streak sag south into our northern areas late Sunday
afternoon).

One caveat that could play out, however, is upstream convection from
the prior night may maintain thick overcast over our area through
much of Sunday afternoon. If this were to occur, our atmosphere may
not be as ripe for deep convection. The latest 18Z/00Z HRRR runs
seem to favor this solution for now.

Any lingering convection Sunday evening should wane and move east of
our area by Sunday night.

Coverage will decrease Monday through Wednesday with transient zonal
flow aloft while the ridge re-builds along the southeast. However,
can`t fully rule out isolated convection each afternoon.  Beyond
Wednesday, a strong upper trough and associated sfc cold front will
approach and eventually pass through central NC. There are some
timing differences in the guidance this far out, but strong sswly
flow and WAA ahead of the front will likely trigger increasing
shower and storm chances sometime late Wednesday through Thursday
night. The flow aloft will be quite potent, and as such, we`ll have
to keep monitoring this period for potential severe weather.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Continued very warm through at least mid week, with
near record-breaking temperatures possible.

The anomalous mid-level ridge centered over New England will de-
amplify this weekend as a trough moves across the Ohio Valley
Saturday through Sunday. The ridge will then re-amplify Tuesday into
Wednesday ahead of another strong and possibly deeper trough. The
trough will push across the eastern seaboard Thursday into Friday.

This pattern will promote anomalous daytime and nighttime
temperatures this weekend through at least midweek. Highs will peak
Tuesday and Wednesday into the lower to mid 80s with strengthening
pre-frontal sswly flow.  Although, afternoon convection and clouds
may dampen this some.

A potential "cooldown" into the 60s/lower 70s looks possible
Thursday, although timing differences amongst models wrt to a strong
cold front are promoting quite a spread in temperatures then. Post-
frontal CAA should arrive by Friday, with cooler highs possibly only
reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

There is a good chance for sub-VFR conditions in central NC from the
predawn hours through the morning, particularly over the E and S
portions of the area, although confidence is just medium. A backdoor
front pushing into our NE is bringing areas of IFR-LIFR cigs
currently to areas N and E of RWI, while other areas of IFR cigs are
developing in SC and spreading quickly northward into the Sandhills.
Patches of fog are also developing over the coastal areas, with
widespread IFR/LIFR vsbys over the NC coast and sounds. The chance
for sub-VFR conditions will be greatest at RWI/FAY, mainly between
09z/4AM and 16z/11AM, with a slightly lower confidence at RDU and
lower still at INT/GSO, where a shorter period of MVFR vsbys and
cigs is possible. Improvement to VFR is expected at all sites by
18z, with VFR cigs holding through the end of the TAF valid period.
An isolated storm or two is possible near INT/GSO late this
afternoon, but coverage will be low, thus have not included it in
these TAFs. Surface winds through mid morning will be light from the
S or SSW, except from the ENE at RWI, then winds will pick up
thereafter from the S or SW areawide with gusts up to 15-20 kts
expected through sunset.

Outlook beyond 06z Sun: Another period of sub-VFR vsbys and cigs is
expected late tonight through Sun morning, with highest confidence
at RWI/FAY/RDU. As a cold front approaches from the NW Sun, there is
a good chance for flight restrictions with scattered to numerous
showers and storms. This activity will decrease slowly Sun night and
push to our SE as the front drops through the area. This front will
quickly dissipate late Mon, and the chance for late-night/early-
morning sub-VFR conditions in fog/stratus will return early Tue
and Wed morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 7:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 85/1974    KFAY: 84/1961
March 8:  KGSO: 83/2000    KRDU: 87/1974    KFAY: 87/1974
March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974
March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:  KGSO: 63/1956     KRDU: 64/1956    KFAY: 65/1961
March 8:  KGSO: 57/1946     KRDU: 60/1946    KFAY: 63/1961
March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980
March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH