Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

993
FXUS62 KRAH 301725
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1225 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 345 AM Friday....

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all of central NC in
anticipation of a major winter storm for the Carolinas.

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of central NC
and will be in effect tonight, through Saturday, and into
Saturday night.

An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for Saturday night. A Cold
Weather Advisory and/or an Extreme Cold Warning will likely be
needed in subsequent forecast updates.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 345 AM Friday...

1) A Winter Storm Warning will be effect this afternoon/evening
until Sunday morning for all of central NC. Accumulations range from
3-7 inches with the possibility of localized amounts of 10+
inches.

2) A prolonged Arctic air mass in place will result in well
below normal temperatures across central NC through much of next
week.

3) There is a chance for precipitation mid-week, but the
timing, temperatures, and overall amounts remain uncertain at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Winter Storm Warning will be effect this
afternoon/evening until Sunday morning for all of central NC.
Accumulations range from 3-7 inches with the possibility of
localized amounts of 10+ inches.

A major winter storm is likely for the Carolinas beginning later
this evening and lasting through Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The main driver in this winter storm is seen on satellite imagery
this morning as an elongated northern-stream trough axis stretching
across the International border from the Northern Atlantic into the
northern Plains. The basal portion of this trough is forecast with
a high degree of certainty to pivot across the Mid-Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys tonight before closing off over the southern
Appalachians Sat and swing through the Carolinas into Sun.

Snow is expected to start falling as early as this afternoon in the
Piedmont of VA and slowly fill in southward into the NC Piedmont
this evening. This will be driven by low-lvl mass response from the
approaching trough resulting in WAA, weak FGEN, and moist
isentropic ascent creating lift within the dendritic growth
zone. This beginning phase of the winter storm will be mostly
light and patchy snow, but high snow-liquid-ratios (SLR) and
temperatures dropping into the 20s and teens, will allow snow
will accumulate quickly.

Conditions should rapidly deteriorate Sat morning as the anomalous
deep trough for this latitude begins to close over the southern
Appalachians. Moist isentropic ascent will become deeper/stronger
through the morning and into the evening resulting in more
widespread light snowfall. Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall
appear likely to develop where an H850 FGEN band strengthens
over the Carolinas. Where this develops will likely be the first
of two potential significant areas of precipitation, but even
at this time range, models are struggling with its
placement/magnitude. The general consensus appears to be
somewhere near the NC/SC border and arcing generally northeast
into portions of central NC. Where this initially develops may
be very slow moving and produce an area of 8-12 inches of
snowfall through Sat evening within a larger area of 3-7 inches.

By Sat evening, intense lift is expected to reach the Gulf Stream
and rapidly deepen a broad area of low pressure just off the NC
coast in a instant occlusion surface low pattern. This is when the
H850 FGEN band is expected to shift more rapidly eastward and pivot
into a north-south orientation within the H850 cold conveyor belt.
Where this sets up, probably along and-or-east of the I-95 corridor
towards the Carolina coast, remains uncertain. This area will likely
result in another maximum of snow amounts where 10-12+ inches will
be most probable. Whether this occurs in our area or not is
difficult to say and depends on how rapidly the low off the coast
deepens, slow development would keep this axis farther inland.
Also during this time, sustained winds of 20 mph and gusts 25
to 35 mph will likely create blowing and drifting snow,
especially along and east of I-95 corridor, and may reduce
visibility to less than 1 mile. Brief blizzard conditions can
not be ruled out. Sporadic power outages may also occur, but
high SLR should limit accumulations in trees and prevent this
from being a larger concern.

When all is said and done as precipitation moves out of the area Sun
morning, storm total amounts should range from 3-7 inches in most
locations and still result in moderate travel impacts, even in the
absence of the higher end amounts due to the exceptional cold
temperatures and efficient accumulations. Major impacts to travel
and infrastructure should be expected where the significant snowfall
occurs and travel will become dangerous or even impossible Sat into
Sun morning. Blowing and drifting snow may limit accumulations
towards the low-end scenarios in spots.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A prolonged Arctic air mass in place will
result in well below normal temperatures across central NC from
today through much of next week.

Cold weather headlines span from tonight into Sunday morning.
The Extreme Cold Watch will likely need to be upgraded to a
Cold Weather Advisory and/or Extreme Cold Warning for Saturday
night with subsequent forecast updates.

A strong Arctic high tracking south from south-central Canada across
the Plains today and Saturday will continue ridging ewd into the mid-
Atlantic/Northeast US, with persistent nely flow and CAA across
central NC. The parent 1044 mb Arctic high will weaken to about 1035
mb as it drifts esewd across the ARKLATEX Sat/Sat night, while the
ridge axis will continue to extend nnewd across the Great Lakes and
Quebec. The high will continue to weaken and modify as it moves ewd
along the cntl Gulf Coast Sun/Sun night. With the high over the srn
Plains/lwr MS Valley trying to build ewd toward the East Coast and
an area of low pressure rapidly deepening off the NC coast Fri night
through Sun, the pressure gradient across central NC will increase,
resulting in strong, gusty winds, even overnight. Sat/Sat night will
be especially blustery, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible under
continued CAA. Winds will back to more nly then nwly on the back
side of the low as it begins to move newd away from the coast on
Sun, while still deepening. The pressure gradient should gradually
relax Sun night through Tue as the high ridges in from the south.

There is still some uncertainty wrt exactly how cold it will be, as
some guidance indicates the coldest air may get hung up west of the
Appalachians, and thus the cold air will have to spill over the nrn
Appalachians and advect swd into the area. Regardless, the
temperatures and wind chill values will still be dangerously low Sat
and Sun nights.

Forecast highs today range from upr 20s/low 30s near the VA border to
mid 40s south, which is 8 (SW) to 19 (NE) degrees below normal. Lows
tonight will be in the low/mid-teens to low 20s. If the winds do
indeed pick up late tonight as expected, wind chill values could
drop into the low single digits to low teens around daybreak Sat,
which would meet cold weather advisory criteria. Expect a noticeable
drop in temperatures for Sat/Sat night, with highs ranging from
upper teens to mid 20s and lows dropping into the 11-16 degree
range. The blustery winds will make the highs feel more like 4-12
degrees and the lows feel like 2 to -5 degrees. Sunday should still
be blustery early, with clearing skies and winds gradually
decreasing through the aft/eve hours. Temperatures Sun/Sun night
could be impacted by the snowfall. For now, expect highs in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Expect lows Sun night in the 7-13 degree
range. With an expected continued light breeze, wind chill values of
-2 to 10 above zero are possible. Temperatures will moderate through
mid-week, but remain largely below normal for the remainder of the
extended forecast period.


KEY MESSAGE 3... There is a chance for precipitation mid-week,
but the timing, temperatures, and overall amounts remain
uncertain at this time.

Some of the medium-range model solutions show a srn stream s/w and
nrn stream s/w interacting with one another over the MS Valley then
tracking ewd across the Appalachians an East Coast between Tue night
and Thu night. However, there are still significant differences wrt
timing, location, and strength of the waves, which then impact the
precipitation types and amounts. It is still too early for specifics
at this time given all the uncertainties above.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Friday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon into
the evening, but ceilings will decrease as more moisture moves into
the region with snow developing late this evening into the overnight
hours. It`s still a little early to determine where banding may set
up, although there is definitely potential for that to occur
overnight into Saturday. Widespread IFR visibilities are expected by
sunrise, although this will likely be delayed until after the TAF
period at RWI. The wind will be out of the east-northeast around 5
kt through the afternoon, with 20-25 kt gusts developing this
evening into the overnight hours at all sites.

Outlook: Widespread light to moderate snow will continue through
Saturday and Saturday night, tapering off by Sunday morning.
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue in snow, and gusts could reach as
high as 30-35 kt Saturday night and Sunday. VFR conditions should
return on Sunday, although with gusty wind continuing, cannot rule
out restrictions due to blowing snow with the fresh snowpack. The
next chance for precipitation will be on Wednesday, with
temperatures likely warm enough for any precipitation to fall as
rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31: KGSO: 3/1966, KRDU: 3/1966, KFAY: 9/1934
February 1: KGSO:-4/1936, KRDU: 8/1981, KFAY: 1/1936


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948
February 3: KGSO: 23/1996, KRDU: 24/1996, KFAY: 30/1961

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Sunday for NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
morning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/10
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH