Durham, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS62 KRAH 150634
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold off the Southeast coast, producing a
warm southwest flow over our area. A cold front will push
southeast through the region this morning, bringing gusty
northwest winds by this afternoon. Another area of cool high
pressure will build in from the Plains states tonight through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

* Breezy afternoon with clearing skies behind a moisture-starved
  cold front.

A shortwave trough will rotate through the base of a closed low over
eastern Ontario and swing across the Mid-Atlantic through this
evening and offshore by early Wed morning. A deep occluded surface
low centered underneath the mid/upper low will gradually deepen as
it slides eastward into the Canadian maritimes by 12z Wed.

A tight pressure gradient at the surface and an unseasonably warm
airmass in place this morning will shift eastward towards the coast
as a moisture-starved cold front marches across the area during the
morning hours. A relatively narrow band of multi-layered overcast
skies and virga will accompany the fropa with little to no
measurable rain expected; a few hours of very light rain/sprinkles
will certainly be possible. Among the latest 00z Hi-Res guidance,
only the HRRR is showing any of this precipitation reaching the
surface.

Abrupt clearing of the overcast skies is expected from 18z (NW) to
21z (SE). In the post-frontal regime, point soundings suggest a very
dry thermo-profile with a deepening boundary layer through the
afternoon. Flow through the boundary layer will be relatively strong
and result in frequent afternoon wind gusts increasing to 25 to 35
mph across central NC. CAA behind the front will keep temperatures
closer to normal for mid April (upper 60s to mid 70s). Continued
pressure rises overnight will keep light stirring through most of
the night with a few hours of radiational cooling across the
southern Piedmont where temps may dip into the mid 30s; otherwise
lows in the 40s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

* Dry, breezy, seasonable April day.

A lingering tight pressure gradient between the deep low over the
Canadian maritimes and the surface high centered over the Southeast
will result in another breezy day. Strong subsidence on the backside
of the departing trough axis (40 to 80m H5 height rises in 12hrs)
will support mostly clear skies with some scattered flat fair-
weather cumulus during the morning.

Point soundings show a deep well-mixed boundary layer with near
orthogonal NW downsloping winds throughout. This will favor
warming/drying to occur east of the Appalachians with winds
increasing to around 15 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph. Expect highs in
the 60s to around 70 with overnight lows in the mid/upper 30s across
the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain with low/mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

As our area will be largely governed by subtropical ridging, mostly
dry weather is expected through this period, with gusty winds Sat.
From Fri onward, temps will average well above normal.

Thu will be the coolest day of this particular stretch. The surface
high centered over the interior Mid Atlantic region and extending
down through NC early in the day will push offshore through Thu
night, attending the eastward push of the mid level trough out over
the NW Atlantic. The column will be quite dry for much of the day,
suggesting abundant sunshine, which will offset the ~25 m below-
normal thicknesses to support highs just about a category below
normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some high clouds will sweep
overhead, esp NW, Thu evening and night as an elevated warm frontal
zone lifts ENE through the region, corresponding to the amplified
mid level ridge drifting from the Miss Valley into the E CONUS. Lows
should be just slightly below normal Thu night under fair skies, in
the 40s to near 50.

The warmup will then kick into high gear Fri and persist into early
next week, as the mid level ridge shifts over the Gulf and Southeast
states while the surface anticyclone settles off the Carolina and
Southeast coast and strengthens, ensuring a steady S and SW low
level flow into central NC. Surface dewpoints will steadily climb,
and we should see high thin cloudiness topping the ridge through
Sat, but the warm and stable mid levels will result in continued dry
weather. Deep mixing Sat will allow for gusty winds as 25-30 kt 925
mb winds are able to mix groundward. Sat and Sun will be the hottest
days of the stretch, with low level thicknesses about 25 m and 35 m
above normal, respectively. Uncertainty persists regarding the polar
low moving through Ontario/Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes
through Sun. A more amplified system would push a backdoor front
southward into our N sections Sun, as the op ECMWF suggests, while a
flatter trough would favor keeping the front (and cooler air behind
it) to our N, like the op GFS depicts. And the NBM continues to show
a fairly high 25th/75th spread in 2 m temps Sun/Sun night,
suggesting a lack of consensus among its members. With such a strong
and deep ridge over the Southeast coast, will lean warmer on Sun for
now, with the backdoor front likely to barely push into our far NE
before fizzling. Expect highs both days well into the 80s, at least
10 degrees above normal, except will lean slightly cooler in the NE
Sun, still around 80 to low 80s. By Mon, some models begin to tamp
down our ridge via a mid level low pushing from the southern Rockies
NE toward the Great Lakes, although the specifics on speed and track
begin to vary widely among ens members. With lowering heights to our
W, we should start to see increasing convection over the mountains,
and some of this activity could drop off the higher terrain into our
NW late in the day Mon. But for now, with models often tending to
break down a subtropical ridge like this too quickly, will favor a
stronger and more locked-in ridge, with highs Mon still 80-85 and
only very low-end pops late Mon in the Piedmont. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR is expected through the 24 hour TAF period. A
strong 45 to 55 kt southwesterly LLJ is well underway and
resulting in LLWS at all TAF sites. A cold frontal passage
expected this morning is expected to bring a WNW to NW wind
shift, overcast multi-layered clouds as low as 5,000 ft, and
gusty winds. Strongest winds and low-level turbulence is
expected at all TAF sites this afternoon as skies clear and the
boundary layer deepens. Winds will gradually relax and cease a
few hours after sunset.

Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions through mid to late week with
breezy conditions expected through midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

Dry and windy conditions are expected today behind a dry cold front.
Winds will be WNW at 15-25 mph with occasional gusts to 35 to 40
mph. Minimum relative humidity will likely dip into the 20-25
percent range in the NW Piedmont and 25-30 percent range in the
east. After collaboration with NCFS on Mon, recent rains and green-
up are expected to keep fire concerns low to moderate on Tuesday and
help reduce adverse fire behavior.

After efficient drying of fine fuels today, continued breezy
northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph and relative humidity values
dropping into the low/mid 20s Wed afternoon may increase the risk of
adverse fire behavior. Coordination with NCFS will be needed to
assess fuel dryness after today on whether any fire weather related
headlines will be needed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Swiggett/KC
FIRE WEATHER...Swiggett/Badgett