Cornelius, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

875
FXUS62 KGSP 150722
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move thru our area this morning likely producing
some scattered showers over the mountains. Dry high pressure returns
in the front`s wake bringing more gusty winds to the region today
and tonight. The high will linger over the region for the rest of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 219 AM Tuesday: Early morning water vapor satellite imagery
reveals a trough extending from the Great Lakes through the Ohio
Valley and into the Appalachians. At the surface, observations paint
a surface cold front across east Tennessee with regional radars
sampling a broken band of showers and isolated thunderstorms along
and just ahead of the cold front. Guidance is in strong agreement
that the trough will lift across the Appalachians and into New
England by Wednesday morning. This will drag the surface cold front
across the area this morning. Ahead of the front, winds will remain
gusty through the rest of the early morning hours owing to a rather
tight pressure gradient. This will keep the boundary layer well
mixed with very mild temperatures through sunrise. The previously
mentioned showers will move into the mountains over through
daybreak, especially along the immediate Tennessee border where a
narrow strip of categorical PoPs will be carried. A dearth of
moisture and pitiful moisture return farther east will quickly bring
an end to showers with any activity unlikely to make it east of the
mountains.

Winds will remain quite gusty behind the front and the inherited
wind advisory across the northern mountains remains well placed.
Gusts are expected to peak this morning into early afternoon when
the pressure gradient is the tightest, but several advisory level
gusts may continue through tonight. Cold advection will keep
temperatures in check across the mountains with highs struggling to
reach the low 60s. It`ll be a different story east of the mountains,
however, with strong downsloping flow and a very deep and well mixed
boundary layer extending to nearly 700mb. This will support highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. The airmass quickly arriving behind the
front will be quite dry with PWATs around 0.25", which falls in the
5th percentile for mid April. Extremely efficient mixing of
dewpoints will help crater relative humidity values into critical
ranges, which combined with gusty winds would raise concern for fire
weather issues, but substantial green-up of vegetation over the last
couple weeks will thankfully preclude the need for any fire weather
headlines. Surface high pressure begins to build into the area
tonight with chilly overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s
returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2:55 AM EDT Tuesday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z
on Wednesday with upper trofing lifting NE of our area and off
the New England Coast. In its wake, heights begin to slowly re-
bound over the SE as broad upper ridging begins to build across
the eastern CONUS. At the sfc, a large low pressure system will
be lifting north of New England as the period begins. At the same
time, broad high pressure will be spreading over the SE from the
west. Over the next couple of days, the high will steadily slide
eastward and over the Carolinas and then off the Atlantic Coast
by the end of the period early Friday. This will keep us dry thru
the period. We will likely see more low-end gusts over the mtns
again on Wednesday and possibly some gusts outside the mtns. This
combined with low dewpoints and minimum RH values less than 30%
across most of our CWA during the afternoon, will increase the
fire danger across our area. On Thursday, RH`s aren`t expected
to be quite as low and winds should be light, so fire danger
should be lower. Otherwise, weakening downslope flow and cool
thicknesses should help keep temperatures a few degrees below
climatology on Wednesday. Temps should warm to near-normal by
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3:05 AM EDT Tuesday: the extended fcst picks up at 12z on
Friday with broad upper ridging building over the SE CONUS while
upper trofing amplifies over the west. Over the next 24 hrs or so,
the upper trof morphs into a closed, h5 low over the Four Corners
region. By late Sunday/early Monday, this low opens back up and
lifts up and over the ridge. At the same time, another upper trof
will amplify over northern New England and act to suppress the
backside of the upper ridge over our area. At the sfc, broad high
pressure will be centered just off the mid-Atlantic Coast as the
period begins early Friday. At the same time, a weak warm front
will be lifting north of our area as SLY, low-level return flow
establishes itself across the SE. On Saturday, a trailing cold
front will stall out to our north as its parent low moves north
of New England. SLY flow across our area should keep what`s left
of this frontal bndy and its moisture to our north thru Sunday.
By late Sunday/early Monday, another low will quickly spin up over
the southern Plains and lift towards the Great Lakes. This system
will push another cold front to our doorstep on Monday. Some of
the long-range guidance has this front moving thru our area late
Monday into Tuesday, while some guidance has it stalling out over
our fcst area on Tuesday to end the period. Overall, it`s looking
like we should be mostly dry thru the weekend with solid chance
PoPs early next week as the above-mentioned cold front may impact
our area. Temperatures will remain well-above normal for most of
the period with highs in the 80s across the lower terrain each day
and highs in the 70s to low 80s across the mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the forecast period with the main focusing being on winds as
a cold front passes through the area. Gusty southwest winds will
continue overnight ahead of the front with a wind shift to out of
the northwest from west to east through the morning as the cold
front moves through. Gusty winds will persist behind the cold front
and will last into at least Tuesday evening before gradually
subsiding overnight into early Wednesday morning. A band of mainly
mid-level clouds will accompany the front, but no ceiling
restrictions are expected. This will also be a dry front for much of
the area with the exception of showers across the mountains along
the immediate Tennessee border. Confidence in showers making it to
KAVL is too low to warrant mention in the TAF.

Outlook: Wind gusts may linger through early Wednesday evening
across the mountains. Dry conditions continue through at least
Friday, with conditions trending drier for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ033-048>050-053-501-503-505-507.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TW