Cornelius, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

631
FXUS62 KGSP 061506
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1106 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several storm systems moving across the area will allow for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the weekend with a few
possibly becoming strong to severe, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Unsettled weather will stick around through the
middle of next week as a cold front stalls in/near the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Friday: Current analysis, including 12Z RAOB
soundings across the region, show modest zonal flow aloft except
in the lowest 10 kft of the atmosphere where winds remained out of
the N-NW on the backside of the low pressure system near the Outer
Banks. The flow should back from the W and eventually W-SW this
afternoon and evening as the low pulls away from the NC coast and
the trailing 850 mb shortwave ridge axis progresses through the
region. This pattern change will allow for temperatures to warm
back up to a few degrees above climo (highs in the upper 80s in
most spots except 70s in the mountains).

Morning visible satellite captures shows thin cirrus passing through
the area right now. There is already some cumulus developing
near the NC-TN border owing to orographic ascent on the western
slopes of the mountains. Sunny skies will facilitate boundary layer
destabilization with surface-based CAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg
based on the 25th-75th percentile spread among the 06Z REFS
members. There will be two preferential areas for convective
initiation to occur this afternoon. The first favored area will
be along the Blue Ridge-Foothills of GA-SC-NC where convergence
along a lee trough will provide a focus for convection during
peak heating hours (2-4 PM). The other area will initially be to
our west in TN where a shortwave trough aloft (as seen on the
CIRA Advected Layered Precipitable Water imagery) will provide
the support. This activity should move into the central and
northern mountains of western NC this evening - most likely
between 7 and 11 PM. The environment to our west aligns more
favorably with peak heating and occupies a more supportive
portion of parameter space - characterized by higher CAPE and
stronger deep-layer shear - for somewhat organized convection,
primarily in the form of multicellular clusters with some severe
potential. For our area later today, the main convective threat
will be locally strong to damaging winds and cloud-to-ground
lightning. However, limited storm coverage and a marginally
supportive environment for severe wet microbursts justify the
Marginal Risk highlighted by SPC across much of the forecast
area.

We will also be closely watching an MCS that is currently over
the Ozarks and ArkLaTex region late this morning. This system
is expected to track eastward across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys this afternoon and evening, eventually reaching the Southern
Appalachians overnight. CAMs are in good agreement with the MCS
weakening by the time it makes it into the mountains which seems
reasonable as it moves into an increasingly stable boundary layer
and becomes removed from the better synoptic lift that remains
upstream of the region. Otherwise, tonight will be warm and
a bit muggy.

Hourly PoPs were tweaked with the mid morning update to reflect
the latest thinking for coverage and timing of showers and
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 219 AM Friday: An unsettled pattern will continue into the
weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.
A stout upper ridge will be centered from northern Mexico across the
Gulf Coast and much of the Gulf itself. On the poleward side of the
ridge, a series of shortwave troughs embedded within a belt of
westerlies will be quickly pushing out of the Central Plains and
into the Ohio River Valley and Appalachians by Saturday night.
Forcing from the waves will help to instigate several upstream
convective complexes across the Deep South and portions of the
Tennessee Valley. With time, this activity will push towards the
Southern Appalachians by late Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours. Forecast confidence lowers with regards to where this occurs
as it will be dictated by convection today and resulting mesoscale
boundaries that are left behind. CAM guidance is also notorious for
poor handling of summer time MCS patterns and often struggles
considerably as to where/when convective complexes initiate and
propagate. With that being said, a conditional severe weather threat
will be possible across the entire area as the parameter space will
easily be supportive of MCS maintenance into the region. Surface-
based instability is progged around 1500-2000 J/kg with around 40
kts of deep-layer vertical wind shear within the westerly flow
regime. IF an upstream MCS were to track into the area a threat for
damaging winds would be probable, however the forecast could remain
rather quiet if any MCS track just misses the area to the south.

Heading into Sunday, a large closed upper low is forecast to drop
into the Northern Plains with a lead shortwave trough lifting across
the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. An attendant surface low will
slide across Indiana and Ohio with a surface cold front dropping
through the Mid-South and into Kentucky. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia ahead of the front and a couple strong
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Shear will be much weaker,
however, and will generally preclude a threat for organized severe
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 234 AM Friday: Unsettled weather is expected to persist into
next week with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
previously mentioned advancing cold front will try to push into the
area on Monday, but how far it progresses remains uncertain at this
time range. Guidance is in generally good agreement that the
boundary will stall in or near the area with perhaps a lull in
activity on Monday. The forecast turns wet again through the rest of
the period as guidance depicts the boundary lifting back across the
area and then stalling as flow weakens and upper forcing wanes. This
will keep at least scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Several weak waves later in the
week may enhance coverage further.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: After some localized restrictions from
fog around 12Z, conditions quickly improved to VFR. VFR
continues through most of the day. However, there will is a
possibility for localized/brief restrictions in thunderstorms
after 18Z. Highest confidence for showers and storms is in the
mountains, so only VCTS was only included at KAVL during the mid
to late afternoon.

Will likely see restrictions again Saturday morning at least at
KAVL/KHKY. Too early to introduce PROB30 for Saturday at this
time. Lgt/vrb winds at TAF time will pick up 5-10kt this
afternoon, and back lgt/vrb again overnight. Direction should
generally stay on the S side of W, but would not be surprised if
they go briefly on the N side.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...TDP/JRK