Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS62 KRAH 152006 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore this afternoon. Another area of cool
high pressure will build in from the Plains states tonight through
Thursday. A warming trend is expected late this week into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Windy through sunset... then slowly diminishing breezes this evening.

The cold front was moving SE toward the coast at early afternoon.
Cloudiness associated with the front will continue to push offshore
with the front late today. Dry and cool advection with the WNW winds
15-25 mph (gusts to 30-35 mph) will gradually decrease later
tonight. Expect skies to become mainly clear tonight with lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A continued mixed boundary layer will tend
to keep temperatures above any frost concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Dry, breezy, seasonable April day.

A lingering tight pressure gradient mainly during the morning will
result in another breezy morning. The high pressure over the Plains
will move closer during the afternoon relaxing the pressure gradient
over central NC. Strong subsidence on the backside of the departing
trough axis (40 to 80m H5 height rises in 12hrs) will support mostly
sunny skies. Highs will top out between 65-70. NW winds 10-20 mph in
the morning will become light late in the day. Clear skies and light
wind will lead to excellent radiational cooling Wednesday night.
Lows in general should range between 35-42, thus some patchy frost
appears likely in the rural northern and central Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

Tranquil weather and increasing temperatures are expected from late
week through the weekend, before precipitation chances return early
next week.

Cool high pressure centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic and NW
flow aloft will bring dry weather and one last day of below-normal
temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the upper-60s to lower-70s.
An elevated warm frontal zone will bring a period of mid and high
clouds from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Near-normal lows
in the mid-to-upper-40s are expected on Thursday night as the
surface high moves offshore and the low-level flow turns southerly.

As mid-level ridging strengthens over the Eastern US on Friday and
Saturday, a Bermuda high will slowly drift east in the western
Atlantic. This pattern will bring persistent S/SW low-level flow and
increasing temperatures. Friday and Saturday`s highs will be in the
upper-70s to lower-80s and lower-80s to upper-80s, respectively,
with mild lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s on Friday night and
lower-to-mid-60s on Saturday night. Mostly sunny skies are expected
both days, with just some thin high clouds possible.

A mid/upper low will move east across Ontario, Quebec and the
Canadian Maritimes on Saturday and Sunday. This will try to push a
backdoor cold front south into New England and possibly the mid-
Atlantic, but how far south it gets will depend on how amplified the
system is able to get. The 12z GFS continues to depict a weaker
trough and the backdoor front staying well to our north, and while
the more amplified 00z ECMWF had brought the front through our
region on Sunday, the 12z ECMWF now looks more like the GFS. So
continue to have forecast highs in the 80s on Sunday, with POPs
under 15%.

The mid-level ridge does begin to move offshore on Sunday and Sunday
night as the next shortwave moves NE across the Plains and Great
Lakes. This will result in falling heights and increasing clouds
across central NC, but any precipitation chances should hold off
until Monday, when some isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible especially west. Did speed up the timing of
precipitation chances a bit as the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
are faster with this wave. Latest deterministic guidance has the
system dragging a cold front through our region on Monday night and
settling well to our south on Tuesday, but continue some low-end
POPs into Tuesday (highest south) given continued run-to-run
inconsistency and a decent number of ensemble members still showing
precip. At this time, Monday continues to look warm before we start
to cool off on Tuesday, but exact temperatures will depend on
frontal timing/placement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

Windy conditions expected along with VFR cigs/vsbys. The strongest
winds 15-25kt (gusts to 30-35kt) and low-level turbulence is
expected at all TAF sites this afternoon as skies clear and the
boundary layer deepens. Winds will gradually relax to 10-15kt a few
hours after sunset.

Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions through mid to late week with
breezy conditions expected through midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 252 PM Tuesday...

Breezy and dry conditions are expected Wednesday morning (10-20 mph).
However, winds will decrease to 10-15 mph in the afternoon, and to
nearly calm by sunset Wednesday. Therefore, even though the minimum
relative humidities will likely fall into the 22-27 percent range
west, and 27-32 percent east, these meteorological parameters fall
short of the increased fire danger thresholds with diminishing wind
in the afternoon (when the driest relative humidities will occur).
Green-up and recent rain continued to provide mitigating factors, as
well.

No statements will be issued at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Badgett
FIRE WEATHER...Badgett