Cary, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS62 KRAH 181856
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front just south of the area will dissipate later today, then
a second cold front will drop southward through the area tonight,
before stalling to our south. Cool and dry high pressure will extend
into the region from the north late tonight through Monday. The
stalled front to our south will lift northward into North Carolina
as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure tracking
along the front will bring unsettled weather Tuesday through
Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will bring quiet weather as
it builds into the area Wednesday night through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

A weak cold front is currently located in southern portions of the
CWA. This front will continue to weaken before another weak and dry
cold front will push through the region tonight. This will allow
temperatures to be around 5 degrees above normal. As of the 18Z
observations, temperatures are in the upper 70s in the far north to
the upper 80s in the far south. With a few more hours of heating
expected, temperatures may hit the low 90s in the far south. Minimum
temperatures overnight are expected to dip into the upper 50s in the
north to the mid 60s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

* Isolated storms possible SW late Mon aftn through Mon evening, but
  confidence is low.
* Greater chance for showers and storms areawide late Tue afternoon
  through Tue night, with some possibly strong to severe.

Mon/Mon night: Mon should start out with some sunshine, esp in the
NE, but clouds will increase in the afternoon, with sct-bkn diurnal
clouds developing by midday while thicker mid and high clouds spread
in from SW to NE. The weak frontal zone dropping S through NC
tonight is likely to follow in the footsteps of today`s weak front
and stall out over N SC before weakening and lifting back N by aftn.
Aloft, as a mid level low drifts over and just off the Canadian
Maritimes, a deep trough over the Front Range swings E into the
Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Mid level ridging between
these two systems will hold over the Ohio Valley into the Mid South
and interior Southeast through Mon night, however the remnant MCV or
dying MCS from tonight`s anticipated powerful convection over KS/OK
is expected to breach the flattening ridge and track ESE along the
surface frontal zone through the Miss Valley and KY/TN Mon before
moving SE through W NC and SC late aftn through Mon evening, a
solution fairly well agreed upon by the latest HREF high res model
suite members. Despite incoming decent lapse rates around 6.5-7.0
C/km just aloft, the afternoon mixing-out of surface dewpoints may
result in only marginal SBCAPE. But HRRR forecast soundings over our
S do show this resulting in a DCAPE over 900 J/kg, and with
potentially plenty of moisture aloft in the mixed phase region along
with long and roughly straight hodographs, we could see some strong
surface gusts and large hail with this activity. Some models hold
this convection to our S and SW, however, so for now, will carry a
mention of isolated storms 21z-04z across the SW and see how things
evolve tonight into early Mon to see if an increase in pops is
needed. Models do suggest that this precip and resulting stable pool
could facilitate the frontal zone pushing back to our SW as a
backdoor cold front overnight, a reasonable response and one which
would keep us mostly cloudy within stable air and areas of stratus
over much of the CWA through daybreak Tue. After highs in the 80s,
expect lows in the upper 50s N to mid 60s S.

Tue/Tue night: The surface pattern over the E CONUS will remain
complex, and our severe storm risk will depend in large part on the
whims of the surface frontal zone. Most models indicate that the
surface high to our N will weaken and push off the Mid Atlantic
coast by late Tue, allowing the front to lift back NNE into W and S
NC, although any lingering stable pool locked in over the NW
Piedmont may retard this motion. The Plains low will lift gradually
into IA and vicinity through Tue night as the trailing trough shifts
E through the Ohio Valley and central/S Appalachians, while the
surface frontal system matures and occludes, leaving a low over
IL/IN with a second triple-point low somewhere to the ESE,
potentially anywhere from KY to WV or WW VA/NC late Tue night.
Overall, the chances for increasing PW and broad dynamic forcing for
ascent do support a ramp-up to higher pops late Tue through Tue
night, however our risk of severe storms (and placement of that risk
temporally and spatially) will depend in large part on where the
surface lows track, how long the stable low levels hold over the CWA
Tue, how much heating we get, and how upstream convection evolves.
For now, will show chance pops mainly across the W and S increasing
to likely, highest across the NW and N closer to the triple-point
low, with good chances in the SE. Expect highs in the mid-upper 70s
N and back into the W Piedmont, with low-mid 80s SE and extreme S.
Lows 59-68. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

The chance of scattered showers and storms remains on Wed ahead of a
pre-frontal trough and cold front slated to move Wed night. A
secondary low will track along the NC/VA border before exiting off
the coast. The warm front from Tue will have lifted in VA by this
time and the airmass is forecast to be much warmer under gusty
southwest flow. Highs were raised to the mid 80s in the north and
low 90s in the south. Coverage and severe threat of storms remains
somewhat uncertain. The mid-level pattern shows a dry slot and
capping inversion punching in during the day, which could limit
overall coverage. The best chance appears east of US-1, especially
along/east of I-95 where surface convergence may be maximized.

Showers may be possible Thu as ensembles show a filament of
vorticity moving through around the larger parent trough, but most
areas should be dry. Otherwise, below average temperatures are
forecast Thu through Sun under cooler northwest flow, with the most
pleasant days Fri and Sat in the low to mid/upper 70s and dewpoints
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 40s
to low 50s Sat morning.

While the weekend forecast is currently progged to be dry, there are
some ensemble clusters that would indicate the trough pattern may
break down sooner and favor some MCS potential late Sun or early
next week. Given the model spread at this time frame, overall
predictability on this is currently low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will hold across central NC terminals over the next
24 hours, as a weak front settling across our south dissipates later
today, leaving us under weak but dry high pressure. Expect little
more than a few mid and high clouds today, along with scattered flat
high-based daytime cumulus, all of which will push southeast this
evening as a second dry front drops through the area, leaving mostly
clear skies this evening through the end of the TAF period. Winds
from the WSW to WNW will be mostly under 12 kts, but sporadic gusts
to 15-20 kts are possible through 00z. Winds will then decrease with
a shift to be from the N and NE overnight.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, VFR clouds will spread in from the west
later Mon afternoon through Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers
and storms are possible Tue through Wed morning, lasting into Wed
afternoon in the E, and a period of sub-VFR conditions with
gusty/shifting winds is possible in and near any storms. There is
also a chance of late-night/early-morning sub-VFR fog/clouds both
Tue and Wed morning. And low level wind shear is possible Tue
overnight into Wed morning, with gusty winds expected Wed
afternoon/evening. VFR conditions should return for Thu-Fri. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Hartfield