Asheville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

711
FXUS62 KGSP 191759
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances through
the beginning of next week. A few storms could produce damaging wind
gusts and localized flash flooding each day. A weak cold front
slowly crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure to
the north could bring temperatures closer to normal by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday: Convection is firing across the mountains,
especially along the Escarpment. Westerly steering flow should take
this activity into the Piedmont, but lack of DCAPE and modest MLCAPE
will result in most of the convection struggling to survive. The
environment seems unfavorable for much in the way of severe storms,
but a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Forward
storm motions should limit the flash flood threat, but locally
heavy rain is possible where storms can manage to train.

Tonight, convection should wane with loss of heating. Clearing
skies and light winds will allow some mountain valley fog to form
like usual. Lows will be a few degrees above normal.

Sunday, upper high will continue to drift west-northwestward into
the Lower MS Valley, while a trough digs into the Northeastern
states. Flow will turn more out of the NW atop the forecast area,
which will advect some drier air. This combined with an approaching
vort minimum arriving during peak heating may keep convection a
little more suppressed and sparse than last couple days. Despite
a weak downslope, guidance agrees on PWATs remaining elevated and
heat indices pushing into the 105-109 deg range across portions
of the lower Piedmont. Will likely need one for at least the
Charlotte metro area, and possibly the southern Upper Savannah
Valley/Lakelands. Will make final decision when the current Heat
Advisory expires at 00z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Increased chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday,
especially for the mountains.

2) Drier and cooler air could filter into the area from the north by
Tuesday.

As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: Kicking the new week off with an
amplifying ridge over the south. Throughout the day on Monday,
guidance increases heights, allowing the ridge to further balloon
into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. The eastern fringe
becomes more prominent for NW flow aloft, signaling an increased
chance for embedded shortwave energy to slide down and cross the
CWA. This is more or less dubbed the MCS maker. Currently the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the entire CWA into a MRGL risk
for Day 3 as well. Will continue to monitor over the weekend. At the
same time, a surface high builds in to the far northeastern portion
of the CONUS, setting up a wedge-like situation into Tuesday night.
Latest guidance suggests drier air from the NE starts to filter in
Monday night into Tuesday in the mountains, before spreading
throughout the CWA into the next period. Depending on the alignment
of this high with the so called MCS maker, it could reduce severe
potential is the drier air reaches the area ahead of any shortwaves
from the NW. Not, a significant deal breaker, but it could hinder
the level of severity. For now, PoPs remain elevated for the
mountains (55-85%) for Monday and more widespread (55-80%) across
the entire CWA for Tuesday. Either way, the hot temperatures and
high humidity stick around on Monday, but with the downslope winds
from the NW, could mix out more of the dewpoints, lowering the heat
index a tick. A few counties in the far southern zones could still
reach Heat Advisory criteria though. Still appears to have heat
indices in the very low 100s. However, a small break is likely on
Tuesday as a backdoor cold front moves southward and brings
drier/cooler air. At this point in the summer, relief from the heat
is welcomed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Cooler temperatures and decreased rain chances remain in place
with the wedge midweek.

2) Temperatures and humidity increase toward the end of the week.

As of 115 PM EDT Saturday: By Tuesday night, a strong and pronounced
area of surface high pressure off to the north ushers in heat relief
with drier and cooler air. Meanwhile, the strong ridge from the
central CONUS shifts eastward and enhances the NE flow into
Wednesday, keeping the cooler temps locked in with the wedge. Long
range guidance shifts the center of the high further east and closer
to the southeast, which could provide ample subsidence toward the
end of the week. This makes way for a drier few days with less
convective activity, especially outside the mountains. At this time,
PoPs remain closer to the slight chance (15-35%) range toward the
end of the forecast period. There could still be the typical
diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm over the mountains, but any
widespread severe threat is looking less and less likely at this
point. By the end of the period, the surface high to the northeast
gets pinched off and return of southerly flow commences once again,
raising temps and dewpoints. Additionally, there is a hint of a
small area of low pressure developing off the Carolina coastline at
the end of the week. Given the uncertainty for Day 6-7, there is
little to no confidence in this system even having an impact for
rainfall in the CWA at this time. As usual, will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Numerous SHRA with a few TSRA have developed
along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and will generally track east
into the Piedmont. Guidance is not handling this activity very
well, so confidence is low on how much will survive as it tracks
east. As such, have continued with a PROB30 for KCLT, given the
uncertainty. The other sites are close enough to the activity to
warrant TEMPOs for TS. Gusty WSW winds are occurring across the
Upstate, but light elsewhere. Convection should wane and mainly
just high clouds persist tonight with light wind. Another round
of mountain valley fog will be possible overnight, with a TEMPO
for some BR at KAVL early Sunday morning. Winds shift to W or WNW
Sunday morning, but expected to stay light. Confidence in convection
near KCLT is too low for the 18z TAF, but will probably be needed
for the other sites in the 00z TAFs.

Outlook: Daily thunderstorm chances will continue through early
next week each afternoon and evening. Low stratus and/or fog are
possible each morning, especially across the mountain valleys. Drier
air may filter in from the north Wednesday, resulting in little
to no convection east of the mountains thru Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ071-072-082.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK