Asheville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS62 KGSP 230825
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will spread over the area this weekend with a
gradual warming trend into early next week. A cold front will
bring some brief showers to the area on Tuesday and a second
system will likely bring more rain for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday: Snow showers really beginning to
dwindle on the radar mosaic. And with cloud top temps warming on
the IR imagery, there may be patchy drizzle along with the snow
near the TN border. Winds have actually ticked up in some of the
obs across the French Broad Valley and the northern Mountains,
including the escarpment areas. Will let the Winter Weather and
Wind advisories continue thru daybreak.

A large low pres system will slowly drift east off the New England
coast, while cool and dry high pres builds in from the west. NW
flow snow shower activity should taper off to a few lingering
flurries thru mid-morning, with some stratocu lingering into the
aftn along the TN border. The GFS suggests there may be another
round of orographic cirrus forming across mainly the NC foothills
and Piedmont this aftn. But otherwise, it should be mostly sunny
today and not as windy. Highs will remain well below normal along
the TN border, but rebound close to normal elsewhere (mainly
upper 50s to lower 60s). Tonight, winds should go light and
skies become clear, allowing for good radiational cooling. The
air mass will be fairly dry, but patchy fog may form in some of
the mountain valleys and on some of the larger lakes. Lows will
be about a category below normal (mainly in the 30s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2:55 AM EST Saturday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z
on Sunday with heights continuing to gradually increase over the
Southeast as low-amplitude upper ridging builds. By the end of
the period early Tuesday, another upper trof will translate over
the Great Lakes from the west with the trof axis progged to be
just to our north as the period ends. At the sfc, broad high
pressure will be centered over Florida as the period begins early
Sunday. The high will linger over the Southeast for the bulk of
the period, but will shift offshore as the period wears on. By
the end of the period early Tuesday, a robust low will lift up
and over the Great Lakes and push a cold front into our CWA as
the period is ending. Any QPF associated with this system should
be minimal and it should all be liquid. We can expect some gusty
winds with the fropa early Tuesday, but values are expected to
remain below Advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2:45 AM EST Saturday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on
Tuesday with an upper trof translating over the Great Lakes from
the west. The trof axis is expected to pass to our north as the
period begins on Tuesday and then lift off the New England Coast
by early Wednesday. Expect more zonal flow in the trof`s wake on
Wednesday. By the end of the week, another round of broad upper
trofing is expected over the eastern CONUS. At the sfc, a robust
low will be lifting up and over the Great Lakes as the period is
beginning early Tuesday. The low will push a cold front thru our
area early Tuesday, with the front expected to be south/east of
our CWA by Tuesday aftn/evening. Transient high pressure will
briefly spread back over the area on Wednesday, but will move
offshore by Thursday. At the same time, another sfc low will
quickly eject out of the southern Plains and track over our
CWA. Most of the long-range guidance has the low lifting NE
of our area by early Fri with another round of high pressure
spreading over the area in its wake to end the period. No major
changes were made to the sensible fcst with a wet Thanksgiving
Day expected. In addition, there`s a decent chance that the NC
mtns will see another round of NW flow snow in the wake of the
departing low on Fri as temperatures have been trending lower.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Plenty of stratocu across the mountains
and into the NC foothills, but the Piedmont sites have cleared
out for the most part. Cig at KAVL continues to hover just above
3000 ft, but there is still a chance it could go MVFR for a while
thru daybreak. Cannot rule out a brief snow shower there as well,
but too low confidence to mention in the TAF and any impacts should
be minimal. KAVL will continue to be gusty out of the NNW into the
aftn. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with generally light W
to WSW wind thru about 14-15z, then toggling to NW and increasing
slightly, but expected to stay below 10 kt. Winds may toggle back
to WSW in the Upstate sites this aftn. Winds will become light or
calm at all sites this evening.

Outlook: VFR through Monday. A weak cold front crossing the
area Tuesday and may bring scattered rain showers and associated
restrictions. Dry high pressure returns for Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-
     048>052.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK