Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KBGM 250445
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1245 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes made from the NBM this forecast cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain comes to an end this morning with clearing skies and
warm temperatures this afternoon and evening.


2) Temperatures remain warm through mid week, then a cold front
pushes through the region with showers and thunderstorms
possible on Wednesday across the Southern Tier and Northeast
Pennsylvania. In the wake of the front, cooler temperatures are
forecast for the end of the week and into the weekend under dry
NW flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Shortwave moves east of the region by mid morning today and then
drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the day.
Should see some sunshine this afternoon and this will help send
temperatures into the 70s. High pressure centered overhead
tonight will likely lead to widespread fog through early Tuesday
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Mid and upper level ridging builds in Tuesday and persists
into Wednesday. This will push temperatures back above average
with highs in the low 80s both days. However, a cold front
pushes through late Wednesday and will have the potential to
kick off some showers and thunderstorms across the Twin Tiers.
In the wake of the front, temperatures will be much cooler on
Thursday with highs back down into the 60s to low 70s.

For the end of the week, models continue to show an Omega block
setting up, with a west and east coast trough and a central U.S.
ridge extending well north into Canada. This pattern will remain
in play through the end of the week and into next weekend.
Trends have continued to show cold air descending down the
eastern edge of the ridge into the Northeast U.S. There
continues to be a persistent signal for below freezing
temperatures at 850 mb and if this occurs, highs may be limited
to the low 50s, however, if this cooler air drifts a bit
further east, then upper 60s to low 70s will still be possible
next weekend. Due to the uncertainty and being this is towards
the end of the forecast period, decided to just stick with the
NBM highs for now. Chances of precipitation will be limited with
any meaningful moisture being kept to the south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings are spread across
all terminals. Another round of rain moves in this evening,
which will lower ceilings to IFR for most terminals and perhaps
IFR visbys as well. An embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
tonight as well, but confidence is too low to include thunder
in the TAFs at this time. After the rain departs the area to the
east Monday morning, IFR ceilings will likely linger through
most of the morning, before gradual improvement by the late
morning/early afternoon.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon through Monday evening...Gradual improvement
back to VFR.

Monday Night through early Tuesday morning...Patchy fog with
associated restrictions possible.

Late Tuesday morning through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/ES