Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

750
FXUS61 KBGM 141928
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow
moving upper level low moves through. This will bring periods of
rain showers and chances for thunderstorms by Thursday and
Friday. A cold front is then forecast to move through on Saturday
with another round of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler
weather with a few lingering showers is expected to round out
the weekend on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

330 PM Update...
Upper level low slowly progresses east this afternoon with wrap
around moisture allowing showers to continue. Showers are
oriented southeast to northwest moving mainly over the eastern
portion of the region, although some showers may trail off into
the central NY. Otherwise temperatures remain cool this
afternoon with highs in the low to upper 60s. Model guidance has
minimal instability today, so no thunderstorms are expected.
CAMs show showers lingering into the evening hours, but mainly
diminishing soon after sunset. Some isolated showers are still
possible overnight, but mainly expecting conditions to remain
dry with fog developing in some areas. QPF will be light with
amounts a few tenths of an inch. Overnight lows will fall into
the mid to upper 50s across the area.

The remnant upper level low/trough will move over the area on
Thursday. At the surface a warmer, southerly flow develops for the
forecast area. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s by mid
afternoon. Another round of scattered showers are expected to move
through the region tomorrow late morning into the late afternoon.
Showers will be accompanied with modest instability, therefore there
is a chance for general thunderstorms, but overall not enough for an
organized threat. SPC placed our region in general thunder.
Otherwise conditions are expected to dry out again in the
evening and overnight hours with temperatures falling back into
the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

Another round of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms is
expected on Friday as a complex frontal system approaches the
area. CAMs continue to hint at a remnant QLCS-like feature
moving into our region from Western NY/Northwestern PA early
Friday morning, but with instability lacking, the expectation is
that any embedded thunderstorms will be on the weaker side, but
there still could be some gusty winds with these showers.
Conditions briefly dry out somewhat Friday night, but an EML
does begin to move in ahead of a stacked low pressure system
that will move into the Great Lakes. As a result, additional
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible the
second half of the night into Saturday morning.

Saturday will feature additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region, with the
most widespread coverage of showers being during peak heating in
the afternoon. Then as winds shift to a westerly direction, some
additional scattered wrap-around showers will be possible
Saturday night in Central NY, with conditions drying out from
the Twin Tiers southward into Northeast PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Much cooler weather is expected in the long term as our region
will be a mainly northwest flow regime. Scattered wrap-around
showers will be possible on Sunday, but coverage of showers will
likely not be nearly as widespread as Saturday. Sunday will be
the first of several days with below normal temperatures with
highs likely only in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Monday and Tuesday is continuing to trend drier as a blocking
pattern sets up, keeping high pressure in control. That being
said, it will continue to be cool for mid-late May standards
with high temperatures only in the 50s to mid 60s. With the
growing season now active across the entire area, we will have
to watch the potential for some frost Monday and/or Tuesday
nights.

The next system may begin to approach the area on Wednesday,
although there isn`t much agreement on this within the model
guidance. For example, the 12Z GFS brings in showers to the
area during the day Wednesday, while the 12Z ECMWF keeps
conditions mainly dry with ridging still in place. So for now,
stuck with the NBM for this time range, which resulted in
chance PoPs and continued below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly MVFR conditions due to either showers or ceilings
expected throughout the TAF period. However, confidence is
fairly high that KBGM and KITH will have a window of IFR
ceilings overnight. The possibility is present at KELM and KAVP
as well. A fairly strong gust of 34 knots just occurred at KAVP
which was in part due to wind direction interaction with the
elevation difference. Another random strong gust or two can not
be ruled out this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and
isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions.

Sunday night and Monday... VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MJM