Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS61 KBGM 141901
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10PM for
some of our central Southern Tier NY counties (as far east as
Chemung County), through our Finger Lakes counties, and
northeastward to Oneida County. It is possible additional
counties may be added at a later time if the severe weather
threat progresses east of there.

Also adjusted temperatures downward another few degrees for
this afternoon as extensive cloud cover continues to limit
heating.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front moving through the area will bring thunderstorms to
the area late this afternoon through the early evening. Some of
these thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
or hail.

2) Dry weather is expected to return for Monday and Tuesday, before
an upper level trough will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms starting on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front continues
to keep the atmosphere relatively stable early this afternoon. As of
2PM, the trough and associated cold front is still over the Great
Lakes. There is some partial clearing across parts of Western NY and
Western PA and if this partial clearing is able to make it into
Central NY/Northeast PA, we could quickly see some destabilization,
although still not much compared to what we would usually see for
severe weather setups this time of the year. The main driver for the
potential line or broken line of severe thunderstorms to develop
this evening is strong shear (0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kts
and localized pockets over 50kts). This could result in locally
damaging winds, especially in any bowing segments.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10PM for
some of our central Southern Tier NY counties (as far east as
Chemung County), through our Finger Lakes Counties, and
northeastward to Oneida County. It is possible additional
counties may be added at a later time if the severe weather
threat progresses east of there.

Any lingering showers or thunderstorms quickly move east of the area
late this evening and especially after midnight. By the early
morning hours (after 3AM) the entire area should be rain-free,
leading to a dry day on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the strong cold front passage, we will get a taste of fall-
like weather in mid-June on Monday. High temperatures will only be
in the lower 60s to lower 70s, with dew points falling to the 40s
for most of the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected, so it will be
a pleasant (but cool) mid-June day.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday (highs in the
70s), but dew points will remain in the 40s, leading to low humidity
levels.

The weather begins to turn more active again starting on Wednesday
as multiple shortwaves pivoting around longwave trough over Canada
will move into the Northeast. This will set the stage for multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday right through the end
of the week. While exact timing remains uncertain this far out and
there will be dry breaks in between each shortwave, Thursday appears
to be the most active day at this time as a potent shortwave moves
through and more moisture and humidity advects back in.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the
afternoon. By late this afternoon/early evening a line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area.
Continued with TEMPO groups for TSRA for each terminal, but
fine-tuned the timing of each group to the two-hour window where
thunderstorms are most likely. In any thunderstorms, brief IFR
visbys will be possible due to the heavy downpours.

After the thunderstorms move out, post-frontal lowering of
ceilings is expected, which will bring at least MVFR/Fuel
Alternate ceiling restrictions to all terminals. IFR
restrictions will be possible as well, especially at KRME, KITH,
and KBGM. A return to mainly VFR conditions is expected for all
terminals by late Monday morning/early afternoon, with KRME
likely holding onto the restrictions the longest and KAVP/KELM
likely turning VFR the quickest.

Outlook:

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances
pass through; associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...BJG