Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

565
FXUS61 KBGM 070740
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this update. There remains low potential
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening west of the
I81 corridor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring a round of rain showers and
thunderstorms today, especially late in the day and at night. A
few thunderstorms may contain strong gusty winds and small
hail, mainly west of I-81.

2) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through
at least the middle of next week. This warm weather, combined
with multiple rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk
for some flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The severe thunderstorms threat today will be dependent on what
areas can break out of the clouds and garner some instability
this afternoon. At this time, the best shot for clearing will be
well west of the I81 corridor. SPC continues to highlight about
half of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms, but
confidence in that forecast is low at this time. Forecast model
soundings show a strong low level inversion with low clouds
likely below this inversion for much of the day. Further west,
Steuben County will have the best chance to see any severe
thunderstorms, as models show clearing skies there later this
afternoon. While NAM model soundings keep the low level
inversion in place through today across the entire CWA, the GFS
soundings show the inversion breaking west of I-81, especially
from around western Steuben County and northeastward into the
Finger Lakes toward Syracuse Metro.

By this evening, a cold front will be advancing toward the area
from the west, and latest CAMs are hinting at a QLCS developing
with a round of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. PWATs
rise to around 1.00 to 1.25 inches, so some locally heavy
downpours will be possible. Even with an inversion in place,
MUCAPE of 500 - 1000 J/kg along with 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk
shear, could keep a line of storms organized, but not
necessarily surface based as they cross the region.

If the low level inversion can mix out, like the GFS shows,
then that will be our best opportunity to see a few severe
thunderstorms. We will be monitoring this throughout the day,
so stay tuned for updates.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Above average temperatures will be in place Sunday through
midweek with high temperatures expected to be the 60s areawide
Monday and Tuesday (with some valley locations making a run at
70 degrees Tuesday from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA). Dry
conditions are largely expected through Tuesday. This should
allow current river and stream rises from locally heavy
rainfall later this afternoon and evening to recede a bit,
before potential for more decent rises likely returns midweek.
Rivers and streams will need close monitoring during this
timeframe for potential flooding, including possible isolated
ice jams.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A complex low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes
will keep restrictive categories across the region through the
period. Brief showers may move through RME and SYR early this
morning. Otherwise MVFR to LIFR is spread over the region
tonight.

A line of showers are expected to move through tomorrow
evening as a cold front passes over the region. There is
potential to see some thunderstorms with this, but confidence
was not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.
Thunderstorm potential mainly depends on whether our area sees
clearing tomorrow afternoon. There is potential for clouds to
scatter out in the afternoon which would bring brief
improvements to VFR. At this moment guidance is suggesting
improvements to MVFR at most sites, but BGM and AVP could hold
onto IFR if clouds dont scatter out.

LLWS is expected overnight and into the morning as a 35-45kt
low level jet moves overhead while surface winds remain
southeast. Surface winds increase later Saturday with gusts up
to 20 knots.


Outlook:

Saturday Night...CIGs could drop lower again across the entire
area. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a front moves
through Saturday evening into the overnight.

Sunday...MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...ES/MJM