Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS61 KALY 121830
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
230 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot temperatures are expected again Wednesday before low
pressure brings rain showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours with lingering shower activity into Thursday.
Dry conditions return for the end of the week into the beginning
of this weekend with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

 - Hot temperatures are expected again Wednesday afternoon with
   feels-like temperatures in the mid 90s across valley
   locations.

 - 50-70% chances for rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
   afternoon across eastern New York and western New England.

A trough at 500 hPa will approach the region tonight. This will
support continued advection of 850 temperatures around 18C into
the region and keep temperatures hot tomorrow afternoon with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Southerly flow ahead
of an associated weak surface cyclone will result in increased
low level humidity compared to today. The combination of
increased humidity and hot temperatures will support feels like
temperatures climbing into the 90s across the valleys and
Capital Region tomorrow afternoon. However, the likelihood of
multiple hours of widespread feels like temperatures over 95 is
currently less than 30 percent outside of the immediate vicinity
of the area rivers. Looking at additional heat measures, both
WBGT and HeatRisk are forecast to be generally in the Moderate
category with pockets of High. Therefore, we decided not to
issue any Heat Advisories at this point.

The 500 hPa trough will provide upper level support a 50%-70%
chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. While SBCAPE is forecast to range from 1000-1500 J/kg
per the 12Z HREF, deep layer shear is forecast to generally be
around 20 knots or less which should result in predominately
disorganized/multicellular convection. Forecast soundings
exhibit well mixed sub-cloud layers which will support the
acceleration of downdrafts and a very low chance (less than 5%)
of strong winds within 25 miles of any location tomorrow
afternoon. While chances for thunderstorms will diminish after
sunset Wednesday, rain showers could linger into the overnight
hours and during the morning hours on Thursday with 30-60%
chances remain in the forecast for this timeframe.

Dry conditions return with surface high pressure building in across
eastern New York and western New England Thursday evening and
continues through Saturday. Temperatures will gradually warm
from the upper 70s and low 80s on Friday into the 80s to near 90
on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominately VFR conditions with light winds are expected at
area TAF sites through the forecast period. The combination of
clear skies and light winds will support a medium chance for
MVFR/IFR fog at GFL/PSF again late tonight. However, there was
not enough confidence in the timing or level of visibility
restrictions to include a mention of it in the TAFs with this
cycle. A front will be approaching the area from the west
tomorrow afternoon which will support a high chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the area tomorrow afternoon after 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Humphrey/Webb
DISCUSSION...Humphrey
AVIATION...Humphrey