Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

613
FXUS61 KBGM 201735
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
135 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
region this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Behind
the cold front Monday and Tuesday, conditions will be cooler and
less humid. The quiet weather persists through the middle of
the week before the heat, humidity and thunderstorms return by
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main concern in the near term is focused on the development of
showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon with some
storms possibly becoming strong to severe with isolated wind
gusts the main threat as high as 40-60 mph. There is also the
concern for brief heavy rain that may lead to a few pockets of
localized flash flooding. Timing of these potential storms is
between 1 PM and 7 PM...mainly south and east of the Finger
Lakes and south of the western Mohawk Valley.

Latest GOES East visible satellite imagery is indicating a
solid area of breaks in the clouds over s-central NY and
northeast PA late this morning which may lead to more boundary
layer destabilization prior to the front moving through later
today. There is currently a corridor of ML CAPE values around
1000 J/kg in the aforementioned area, with the low level
inversion pretty much eroded. Deep layer shear is sufficient
(around 30-40 kt), but low and mid level lapse rates are and
will be the limiting factor for deep convection later today. Mid
level lapse rates around 5.5 deg C/km are not supportive of
deep updrafts, and low level LRs currently around 6.5 to 7
degC/km...should steepen a bit more with the clearing to around
8...may help aid in thunderstorm development. We are currently
expecting an area of disorganized convection to develop over
NY/PA between 12 and 2 PM...with storms tracking to the east
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. The main
threat will be for isolated strong/damaging wind gusts within a
few of these storms, and possibly some heavy rain. There is a
5-15% chance of damaging wind gusts within 25 mi of a point, and
only a 5% or less chance of flash flooding within 25 mi of a
point. The storms should be fairly progressive which will reduce
the residence time of heavy rain in any one location.

Once the storms roll out of the area, conditions will become
very quiet for several days. There is a 5-10% chance of light
rain/sprinkles off of Lake Ontario into parts of central NY
later tonight as the colder air moves in, but the main impact
will likely be an increase in lake induced clouds s/se of the
lake.

The lake clouds should slowly dissipate and lift later Monday
morning as temperatures warm into the 70s across most of central
NY and ne PA. Dew points in the 50s will make it feel very
comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The coolest night of the week will occur Monday night with a
fair amount of clearing due to the very dry air moving in. This
will lead to fairly efficient radiational cooling and combine
with light winds to produce overnight lows in the mid to upper
40s in the coldest spots of higher terrain of central NY, and
into the lower 50s elsewhere.

Conditions on Tuesday will remain very pleasant as a large
upper ridge builds in with an associated surface high and
gradual warming temperatures. Highs will top out in the mid to
upper 70s and even a few spots near 80 Tue afternoon. Lows Tue
night will bottom out in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The air mass Wed through Sat will be defined by building
heights and much warmer and more humid air. High temperatures in
the 80s and 90s will be common with dew points in the upper 60s
and lower to mid 70s. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
Thursday and Friday with heat index values in the mid to upper
90s. There is also some indication that we could be dealing with
an MCS or two (or their remnants) rolling along the northern
periphery of the upper ridge and even a few popup thunderstorms
under the ridge during the peak heating of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring brief restrictions
this afternoon, mainly prior to 21z. With AVP being farther
south than the Central NY terminals, showers/storms linger into
the early evening there. Otherwise, by 00z, all terminals will
be VFR through at least 18z Monday. There is slight concern for
fog at ELM early Monday morning given the added moisture from
showers today and clearing skies, but winds may be too strong.
Model guidance is not showing any fog anywhere in the region, so
confidence was too low to include fog at this time. Winds
become northwesterly this afternoon after a front moves through.
Gusts around 15 kts are expected but may be higher with a
passing shower/storm. Winds calm some overnight before gusts
return after 12z Sunday.


Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR; Low chance (40% or less) for showers and
thunderstorms over Central NY terminals overnight with
associated restrictions.

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BTL