Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

683
FXUS61 KBGM 121835
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected tonight
before a cold front moves in on Wednesday bringing occasional
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High
pressure builds back in for the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Increasing dewpoints tonight will set the moisture stage ahead
of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Upper level forcing
looks fairly weak tomorrow as supporting trof shears away to the
north and east taking best PVA with it. Bulk shear will be
limited within this scenario, but sufficient moisture and
residual heating will provide average instability values across
the region between 1000-1500 J/kg. CAPEs will be skinny along
with elevated warm cloud layer depths and anomalous PWAT values
approaching 2 inches. Thus...atmospheric ingredients will be in
place for locally torrential downpours. WPC has enveloped the
area within a marginal ERO which is fine atmospherically,
however, after prolonged dryness it will take upwards of 3
inches of rainfall to trigger significant flash flooding of
small streams. Intense rates could have more of an impact in
urbanized areas which will need monitoring tomorrow.

Behind the front...high pressure with drier air returns into the
weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and
average to cool at night. Highs will likely approach 90 or
higher again for urban areas and in the valleys by Saturday and
Sunday. A little early to be thinking about a heat risk, but
overall the humidity and temperature tandem does not look
critical at this time.

The next system bringing any chance for precipitation again
enters the picture between Sunday and Monday with models showing
subtle differences in timing. EC and GFS models suggest similar
wind shifts on Sunday but it looks like the GFS wants to slow
southward progression out of CNY/NEPA on Monday whereas the EC
has a stronger high and southerly push. Tropical system
approaching the East Coast will potentially begin influencing
the pattern across the eastern seaboard by late Tuesday and the
position of the lingering stationary front just to our south
will become important to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected into Wednesday afternoon. Cumulus development
between FL050-070 this afternoon should dissipate around sundown
with loss of heating. An approaching cold front will bring some
mid cloud development later tonight and Wednesday morning. Also
expecting some shower development toward the end of the forecast
period primarily west of a line from SYR-ITH-ELM prior to 18Z.

Late night MVFR fog could affect AVP where skies remain the
clearest and dewpoints increase the most. Confidence is medium-
high. ELM may stay out of fog development as clouds increase
keeping the temp/dewpt spread apart. Confidence for no fog there
is medium thus have left mention out of TAF for now.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Occasional showers and thunderstorms associated
with a cold front may lead to restrictions.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/t-storms along
another frontal passage.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...JAB