Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

044
FXUS61 KALY 081440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1040 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region today with some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly from the Capital
Region south and east in the afternoon. A low pressure system
approaches the region from the Mid Atlantic Region tonight and moves
along the boundary with a widespread prolonged rainfall from late
tonight through Friday.  The rain tapers Friday night into Saturday
morning with high pressure building in for Mothers Day, as
temperatures moderate closer to normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1040 AM EDT...A mid and upper level trough continues to
be situated over Quebec with cyclonic flow persisting across NY
and New England late this morning. Surface cold front has passed
southward across the entire area and is now stalling across far
southeastern New York and southeastern New England. Although
some far southern areas are still seeing some breaks in the
clouds, most areas are mostly cloudy to overcast behind the
boundary, with a cool northerly flow in place. Radar imagery is
showing a few spotty showers or sprinkles behind the front, but
most areas will be staying dry through the late morning hours.

During the afternoon hours, CAMs suggest a few additional
showers may start to develop close to the stalled boundary. Some
very weak elevated instability looks to be present closer to
the I-84 corridor on some of the CAMS. MUCAPEs are generally
less than 500 J/kg. We placed some isolated thunderstorms for
locations in the southeast Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley,
Berkshires and NW CT. Some localized heavy rainfall may occur.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions will continue and it will
be cool. Highs north and west of the Capital Region will be in
the 50s with some upper 40s over the southern Dacks. From the
Tri Cities south and east max temps will be in the 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Flood Watch issued for western New England and all of eastern
   NY excluding Herkimer, Hamilton, northern Warren and northern
   Washington Counties 5 am Friday to 8 am Saturday.

-  Moderate to high confidence for a widespread moderate to
   heavy rain event late tonight into Saturday morning with wet
   antecedent conditions in place increased potential threat for
   minor flooding of main stem rivers, creeks, streams and
   brooks and isolated flash flooding is possible.

 - There is a 30 to 60% chance of at least 1.5 inches of
   rainfall occurring across eastern NY and western New England
   for the 48-hr time frame ending 8 am Saturday.

Discussion:

Fairly high confidence a spring rain storm will impact the
entire ALY forecast area late tonight into Saturday. A
positively-tilted H500 trough will be over southeast Canada,
the eastern Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley extending into
the Northeast. Short-wave energy will be rounding the base of
the trough over the TN and lower Ohio Valley. The old cold front
with extend north/northeast of the developing sfc cyclone over
the mid Atlantic States. The inverted sfc trough or old frontal
boundary will focus the rainfall tonight. Some embedded
elevated convection may linger early on south and east of the
Capital Region.

The isentropic lift increases in the early morning hours with
PWATS rising above normal. The closed H500 circulation dips
southward over eastern OH and PA towards 12Z/Fri. An anomalous
low-level jet taps some Gulf and Atlantic moisture for periods
of rain...moderate to locally heavy increase shortly before and
just after daybreak on Friday. The sfc wave will be approaching
from the Delmarva Region with upper level diffluence ahead of
it, favorable jet dynamics, and strengthening low to mid level
FGEN. The NBM...as well as the GFS, NAM, EC, and CMC are all on
board for a 24-30 hr moderate to heavy rain event with 1-3" over
most of the region. The CMC is the wettest. The 3-km HRRR
continues to be a bit of an outlier with the wave developing and
tracking a little bit further east and impacting western New
England more and eastern NY less. The Flood Watch is justified
by the wet antecedent conditions and QPF and we did not place
it across the north and western periphery of the area due to
drop off in QPF. Some more zones or counties may be added in
later. See the hydro discussion segment for more details.

It seems like southern VT, the Capital Region and the eastern
Catskills south and east will be in the best QG lift, FGEN and
moisture convergence for 1.5-3" of rain with perhaps some
enhancement with the east to Southeast flow off the eastern
Catskills and wester New England higher terrain as the low
approaches NYC and Long Island by early Friday evening.
Past CSTAR warm season closed low research has shown patterns
of very heavy rainfall and flooding with positively tilted to
neutral cut-off lows. Some isolated thunderstorms may pop up
across extreme eastern NY and western New England by Friday
evening. Periods of rain continue most of the night. Max temps
will be surpressed by the rain cooled air with highs only in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. It will be chilly across the higher
terrain. Lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s over the
mtns Fri night with 40s in the valley, The dry slot to the
system may approach the Capital Region/eastern Catskills/mid
Hudson Valley and southwest New England by daybreak Saturday.

The mid and upper deformation zone to the system and the H500
closed circulation will keep scattered showers in most of the
forecast area Saturday morning, and then they will taper off
last north and east of the Capital Region during the afternoon,
as the system begins to accelerate into northern New England
and New Brunswick. Highs will creep closer to mid 50s to around
60F over the higher terrain on Saturday and lower to mid 60s in
the valleys.

A drying trend occurs Saturday night with a 1030 hPa or so sfc
anticyclone building in from south of James Bay. The skies will
become partly cloudy to mostly clear, as the mid and upper
level trough axis moves through with lows in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Temps trend back above normal Mothers Day and continue into early
next week with dry weather.

- Chances for rain return by mid week.

Discussion:

High pressure and ridging aloft will be positioned just west of the
region to start the long term period, and is progged to slowly build
east through early next week. The increasing subsidence will provide
a pleasant and dry Mother`s Day with near normal temperatures in the
60s to low 70s. Surface temps will warm further beginning Monday
with return flow increasing 925-850 hPa temps to around +10C to
+15C, translating to widespread highs in the upper 60s to near 80
(around 5-10 degrees above normal for mid May) through mid week.
Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 40s, but should
increase into the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday night.

Our welcomed relief from the rain looks to end Tuesday night into
Wednesday as our next system approaches from the Southeast. Model
guidance remains mixed on the system strength, evolution and precip
placement so have elected to maintain slight to chance POPs until
guidance comes into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Mix of VFR to IFR ceilings are expected early
this morning with increasing lift and moisture with a disturbance
just to our northwest. KPSF will see an improvement back to VFR by
mid morning, with MVFR ceilings lingering at KALB/KGFL through the
day. Late in the afternoon, rain chances will begin to increase at
KPOU/KPSF with a developing system across the Mid Atlantic. Cannot
rule out a thunderstorm in the vicinity of KPOU, though low
confidence of direct impact to the terminal precludes mention
in the current TAF. This rain is expected to build from south to
north through the remainder of the period with IFR ceilings and
MVFR visibilities favored through the end of the period. Light
winds out of the west initially will increase out of the north
to around 5-10 kts by mid morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch has been issued for all of western New England,
and the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, Schoharie Valley, mid
Hudson Valley, Taconics, Greater Capital Region, central and
eastern Mohawk Valley and the southern reaches of the Lake
George and northern Saratoga Region from 5 am Friday until 8 am
Saturday.

A low pressure system and a frontal boundary will bring moderate
to heavy rainfall for possible flooding late tonight into
Saturday. 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall is late tonight into
Saturday morning.  WPC has placed most of our region into a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall during this period. While
isolated flash flooding would be possible with any training and
heavier rainfall rates, the greater threat appears to be the
potential for additional river flooding. MMEFS ensemble guidance
continues to show 30-50% chances for minor flooding on many
main stem rivers, especially the Esopus, Hoosic, Housatonic,
Schoharie, Walloomsac, and the Hudson River at Troy and
Waterford.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck
HYDROLOGY...Gant/Wasula