Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS61 KBUF 190501
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with some thunderstorms will move into the area overnight
tonight and into Saturday morning as a cold front approaches from
the west-northwest. Cooler and drier weather is expected for Sunday,
followed by fluctuating temperatures for the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Radar imagery showing an area of moderate showers and some embedded
thunder crossing the Saint Lawrence Valley, with the southern edge
of this clipping northern Jefferson and Lewis counties. Otherwise,
the remainder of the area is mainly dry. Expect rain chances to
begin to increase just before daybreak across Western NY.

As the the sfc low tracks across the central Great Lakes and into
western Quebec through the night, and as moisture increases, shower
coverage will continue to increase as well. The lack of daytime
heating will help limit thunderstorms some, but there is expected to
be enough instability to support at least the chance for some
embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall tonight of around a tenth to a
third of an inch will be possible for much of the area, with the
greatest amounts down near the NY/PA line. Temperatures will remain
mild tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Saturday, showers and embedded thunderstorms continue through the
morning hours, slowly shifting southeast as the cold front
associated with the system starts to push east-southeast across the
area. Another tenth to third of an inch of rainfall will be
possible, with the greatest amounts expected for areas east of Lake
Ontario. Temperatures will reach peak values during the late morning
and early afternoon hours ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures will warm to the mid 60s to low 70s for most of the
area ahead of the cold front. If the front is a bit slower than
expected, then temperatures may warm a bit more than expected. Gusty
winds will be possible ahead of and along the cold front, with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph possible, with the highest values expected for the
higher terrain south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will push frontal boundary and associated
moisture southward Saturday night, leaving our region dry for Easter
Sunday. NBM Max Temperature spread for Sunday is small...with high
confidence in temperatures under a mostly sunny sky ranging from the
upper 40s near Lake Ontario...to upper 50s near the State line.

Monday there is a greater spread in NBM Max Temperature spread
across the Lake Plain and SLV, likely due to the strength of the
southerly downslope flow and amount of precipitation/moisture Monday
morning (WNY), and early afternoon (SLV) with a warm front. A
stronger downslope flow, and drier warm frontal passage may warm the
lake plain and SLV greater than forecasted, potentially into the
low/mid 70s (lake plain) and mid 60s (SLV). A wedge of instability
Monday afternoon and evening, behind the warm front and ahead of a
cold front may allow for thunderstorms across much of our
region, with highest chances for SW NYS. Showers then taper
down the remainder of Monday night with the passage of the cold
front, though a westerly breeze remains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will clear east of western and northcentral NY Tuesday
morning, with just a few lingering scattered light rain showers
possible across our eastern zones before midday. Cold air advection
within weak cyclonic flow aloft will help to mix elevated winds off
the deck to the surface, with daytime heating only further aiding
the transport of stronger winds aloft to the surface during the late
morning/afternoon hours. Strongest wind gusts will be felt across
areas east/northeast of the lakes, where gusts to 30-40 mph will be
common, with 25-30 mph elsewhere.

High pressure then builds across the area providing mainly dry
weather and much lighter winds for the Tuesday night through
Thursday timeframe, although a weak mid level shortwave passing by
to the north may just graze our area Thursday, so can`t rule out a
passing shower during the day. Fair amount of discrepancy toward the
tail end of the period within the 18/12Z operational guidance
package with regard to the approach of the next system, thus
NBM/ensemble guidance PoPs in the slight to low Chc range seem a
good compromise for the last day of the work week.

Daytime highs will be a bit below average to start the period,
trending to above average for the latter half of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An area of showers and some embedded thunder will continue to move
east across the Saint Lawrence Valley through the wee hours of the
morning, with most of this activity staying north and east of KART.
Otherwise, the rest of the area will be mainly dry with VFR CIGS.

A strong 50+ knot low level jet will continue to produce low level
wind shear through this morning until surface winds increase. It
will become quite windy once the boundary layer starts mixing later
this morning, with gusts of 25-35 knots across the area, strongest
from KBUF/KIAG to KROC, where gusts may exceed 35 knots.

A surface cold front will move southeast across the area today, with
the coverage of showers increasing from west to east around
daybreak. The rain will reach peak coverage across the area from mid
morning through mid afternoon. There will be a few isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms as well with limited instability
present ahead of the advancing cold front. CIGS will stay VFR for
the first few hours of rain, then deteriorate to MVFR for lower
elevations and IFR higher terrain later today.

Rain will end later this afternoon and evening from northwest to
southeast with the passage of the cold front. CIGS will improve back
to VFR this evening across lower elevations, and overnight across
higher terrain. Winds will quickly diminish later this afternoon and
evening as the stronger winds aloft move away.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, chance of a few thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds this evening will shift to the southwest overnight ahead
of the approaching cold front. Small craft headlines will likely be
needed again for some of the waters through the day Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/SW