Niagara Falls, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS61 KBUF 280017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
817 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms overnight with
locally heavy rainfall. A cold front will cross our region
Saturday afternoon and early evening, taking humidity as well as
the showers and thunderstorms eastward, with a refreshing and
drier airmass settling into our region later Saturday afternoon
and through the end of the weekend. Another warm front will
return to our region Monday with very warm temperatures along
with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This evening an additional area of thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front is spread over Ontario Canada. This convection will
have some uncertainty to its areal extent based on how the
afternoon convection over OH/PA and its associated
instability/moisture panes out, would then move into far WNY and
the eastern Lake Ontario region around midnight with activity
diminishing through the night as it outraces the axis of deeper
instability. Greatest wind shear tonight will be found near Lake
Ontario and points north and eastward, with 0-6 km effective
bulk shear values of 40 knots. Though with weaker MUCAPE values,
will need to watch for a segment of these storms with stronger
winds for the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Tomorrow, the mid level trough and pre-frontal surface trough will
carry east across the area, with a continuation of morning showers
and embedded thunderstorms. The forcing will begin to encounter
increasing diurnal instability by the time it reaches Central NY,
where a few storms may contain gusty winds and heavy rainfall from
midday into the afternoon. The actual cold front will enter our
region in the early afternoon hours, and carry eastward through the
afternoon and early evening hours. This front will bring a relief to
the sticky airmass with much lower dewpoints arriving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A refreshing airmass Saturday night will drop across our region
following the departure of the surface cold front. A light northwest
flow will usher in dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s...with
overnight lows only a degree or two warmer. These low dewpoint
depressions may allow for some river valley fog in the Southern Tier
and also east of Lake Ontario.

A beautiful day is in store for Sunday with surface high pressure
passing over our region...under a zonal flow aloft. After a sunny
start to the day, diurnal cumulus will develop through the afternoon
hours. This sunshine coupled with 850 hPa temperatures around +15 to
+17C will allow for typical summer warmth with afternoon
temperatures about 5 degree above average.

This surface high will depart to the east Sunday night with a light
southerly flow developing. This flow will usher back into our region
higher levels of moisture, while also making for overnight lows not
as cool as the previous night...with lows ranging from the low 60s
east of Lake Ontario and well inland Southern tier to around 70 near
the Lakes.

Monday will start with fair weather across the region, but
increasing warmth aloft (850 hPa temperatures now around +18C) as a
warm front returns to our region, coupled with a warmer start to the
day should yield afternoon temperatures that are 5 - 10 degrees
warmer than the day before. A southwest flow will allow for the
Buffalo metro to remain in the mid 80s...with upper 80s and lower
90s possible for the Genesee Valley and the northern Finger Lakes
region. Heat index values in the Genesee Valley and northern Finger
Lakes will climb into the mid 90s, close to heat advisory criteria.

Lake breeze circulations will likely develop afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across WNY as instability increases through the
afternoon hours. As PWATS again climb to near 2 inches heavier
downpours of rain will be possible within any thunderstorms. This
convection will increase regionwide a bit Monday night within a
prefrontal trough that will enter into our region. Severe potential
for both Monday and Monday night is low at this point in time with
MUCAPE values generally under 500 J/KG and 0-6km effective bulk
shear values in the 20 to 25 knot range. However with the rich moist
airmass heavy rain will likely pose the greater concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will cross our region late Monday night and early
Tuesday. This timing of the cold front passage will not be the
greatest for severe thunderstorms, with more widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms ending from west to east with the passage of
the shortwave trough aloft.

Wednesday through Friday broad upper level troughing will establish
across the Great Lakes region. Subtle shortwave troughs passing
through the flow will trigger shower and thunderstorm potential but
lacking much instability and initially much synoptic moisture
chances for storms will remain low...with the favored time during
the afternoon and evening. Dewpoints Wednesday through Friday will
be more tolerable, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

NBM members offers little spread (less than 5 degrees) within the 25-
75 percentile for both maximum and minimum temperatures...thus will
just go with the NBM temperatures...with the most uncertain day
Friday when greater uncertainty enters the forecast. This
uncertainly mainly deals with how fast the upper level trough exits
our region and the next upstream ridge and warmer airmass pushes
into our region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering showers remain across portions of western NY early
this evening after this afternoon`s round of thunderstorms. Most
area terminals have improved to VFR conditions, but latest radar
imagery shows the next line of thunderstorms approaching from
the west in southwestern Ontario. There is still some
uncertainty around if afternoon storms overworked the
environment for the overnight round. What remains will likely
be scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into the Niagara
Frontier after 05z. Low ceilings are expected to overspread most
terminals early Saturday morning, mostly to MVFR levels. KJHW
and nearby terminals across the Southern Tier will likely see
conditions drop closer to IFR levels with thunderstorms possible
late in the morning before the cold front passes through
Saturday afternoon with northwest winds.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. Some patches of fog possible Southern Tier and
eastern Lake Ontario region.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, especially
in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with an isolated thunderstorm across WNY and
the eastern Lake Ontario region.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will increase tonight on the Lakes behind a warm front,
especially at the east end of Lake Ontario where Small Craft
Advisory conditions will develop. A cold front will then move east
across the eastern Great Lakes later Saturday, with winds becoming
southwest on both lakes. Expect very choppy conditions on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario Saturday, but winds and waves are expected to
remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Brothers/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas