Niagara Falls, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

666
FXUS61 KBUF 050859
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
459 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will slowly cross the region today, with some
showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers or a thunderstorm will
be possible through Friday night, this as the cold front stalls not
to far from the area. High pressure will eventually begin to build
in Saturday, which will bring dry weather to the region through
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front extends from IN/OH northeast across Lake Erie and
Ontario. This front will ever so slowly sag into the region
today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Timing wise...it
won`t be until late this morning and into this afternoon (peak
heating) when SBCAPE values climb to +1000 J/KG that convection
will re-ignite. The focus will `likely` be with potential lake
breezes or even an embedded convective shortwave rippling along
this front. That said...the greatest threat for storms will be
found across the S. Tier, Finger Lakes, and a small portion of
the eastern Lake Ontario region. Overall...the SVR storm
potential still looks limited but not zero. We still could see
a potent storm or two produce strong gusty winds, and also
heavy rainfall. Given PW values pushing +1.5 inches any slow or
repeated convection moving across vulnerable areas could produce
localize flash flooding.

Tonight...the front will lose its forward progression and then stall
not to far from the area. This will keep chances for some showers
across the area. Additionally...we may also see some pockets of fog
develop, especially for those areas that see rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday morning, the passing cold front will generally be located in
the vicinity of NW PA and extend to the Finger Lakes and to just
east of Lake Ontario. This is the area where the best potential for
showers and thunderstorms is expected as the front slowly pushes
east before stalling. The potential for showers and thunderstorms
will focus on these areas as a wave of low pressure and increase in
synoptic moisture ride northeast along the stationary front, during
the late morning and afternoon. While some thunderstorms are
expected, strong to severe potential will be limited with the
greater instability on the warmer side of the front and the marginal
shear values on the cooler side of the front. Moderate to at times
heavy showers will be possible as PWat values increase to 1.50
inches or more, especially on the warmer side of the front. Rainfall
amounts will range from a few hundredths of an inch from over/near
the Lakes Erie & Ontario to over half an inch for areas of the
Western Southern Tier to Northern Finger Lakes to areas east of Lake
Ontario.

The front will start to slowly track east again, but showers will
linger through the night on Friday, tapering off from west to east
Saturday morning. High pressure and a drier airmass will push into
the region by late Saturday morning and into the afternoon.

The area of high pressure will continue to build east, tracking just
north of the forecast area Saturday night, resulting in dry weather
into the start of Sunday morning.

Temperatures wont change much with the passing front, with Friday
the cooler of the two days. Rain cooled afternoon highs will be in
the mid to upper 60s for the Western Southern Tier and portions of
the Finger Lake, with the rest of the area in the low to mid 70s for
the day. Saturday afternoon highs will reach slightly warmer values
into the low to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers make a return starting Sunday afternoon into the overnight
and continues on and off for much of the period. This will occur as
a large trough develops over the Great Lakes early in the week and
lingers into the middle of the week. Still plenty of uncertainty
among guidance this far out for timing, etc., but nearly all
guidance agrees on the overall pattern and potential for showers for
most of the week.

Temperatures for the period will remain mostly within a few degrees
of normal, either warmer or cooler, depending on the day and frontal
boundaries passing across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will hold for many of the TAF sites. One thing of
note...guidance suggest we might see some low MVFR-IFR stratus
briefly sneak in at KIAG/KBUF/KROC and KART after 10Z this morning.
Have added this too the TAF sites mentioned above.

Otherwise...attention turns to the convection to our west. Lastest
CAMs show this might get in to far WNY after 12Z. Although...most of
it will be in a weekend state when it arrives. A better chance of
storms will potentially come as early as 15Z but `likely` hold off
until closer to peak heating. Still looking like storms will fire
along potential lake breeze boundaries or a convective shortwave
tracking along the front. Best chance to see these storms will be
across the Southern Tier, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
That said...with any of the stronger storms expect brief localized
restrictions.

Tonight...the cold front is advertised to stall not too far from the
area.  Given its close proximity and moisture we may see some
scattered showers, and also low stratus/fog formation overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday...MVFR with a chance of showers early for eastern TAF sites.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lakes today but winds are expected to
remain light with minimal wave action. The front will stall
southeast of the lakes by tonight with light northerlies less than
10 knots. Winds and waves will continue to remain well below SCA
levels Friday through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR