New Rochelle, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS61 KOKX 050551
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
151 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe thunderstorm threat has ended for the night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The dangerous heat and humidity has come to an end.

2) Marginal to Slight risk of flash flooding from Sunday
afternoon through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front has moves across the area early this morning with a
break from the hot and humid conditions. Expect heat indices
to remain below advisory thresholds Sunday and Monday. Expect
temperatures in the 80s on Sunday and 70s on Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A stalled front is progged to be nearby to our south Sunday
into Monday with a wave of low pressure forming along it and
pushing towards us Monday night into Tuesday. Flooding concerns
increase during this period with PWATs near 2 inches and the
flow aloft promoting the potential of backbuilding/training of
cells. For Monday and Monday night, lift and moisture
convergence may be enhanced by a low level jet developing along
the north side of the approaching low. Additionally, the
position of a jet streak couplet aloft may produce additional
synoptic scale lift.

12z HREF ensemble probabilities indicate the eastern edge of a 30%
chance of 3 inches of rainfall in 3 hours very close to NE NJ Monday
night, a threshold that has been a pretty good indicator locally for
flash flooding occurrence. A 50-70% chance of an inch or more in an
hour covers NYC, NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley for Monday night.
Trends will need to be monitored for higher confidence in the flash
flooding potential.

Current forecast rain amounts from Sunday through Monday night range
mostly 2 to 4 inches with the higher amounts over the western zones.
Due to a more convective nature, the rainfall, particularly over NE
NJ and NYC, during Sunday afternoon/evening may end up being lower
than what is currently forecast in the timeframe, so perhaps mostly
2-3 with locally 4+ inches would be a more likely scenario Sunday
through Monday night.

WPC has slight risk of flash flooding for Sunday and Monday from
roughly Fairfield and Nassau Counties and points west where forecast
rain amounts are generally higher. A marginal risk remains elsewhere
where lower amounts are anticipated and/or more rainfall can be
tolerated before flooding impacts would begin.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches tonight and moves through the terminals
into Sunday AM. The front will remain near the terminals through
the TAF period.

Showers across the terminals continue to diminishes early this
morning. While its mainly VFR today, can`t entirely rule out
sub VFR cigs early this morning. SHRA and TSRA chances return
beginning late afternoon. Will continue to carry TEMPOs for TSRA
for a likely active evening.

With a frontal boundary near the region, expect winds to remain
Light and variable through much of the morning. By afternoon,
winds become more E/SE remaining under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for the timing of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and night.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Sub VFR at times with showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon and overnight.

Monday and Tuesday: MVFR or lower with periods of showers and
possible thunderstorms. SE flow Monday becoming NW on Tuesday.

Wednesday: VFR. N wind turns S in afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. Light S flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions continue through the rest of the weekend.
Wind and seas build on Monday with the approach of a wave of low
pressure. Onshore wind gusts probably reach advisory thresholds on
Monday and Monday night on the ocean and some of the non-ocean
waters. For the ocean, seas also build 4 to 7 feet. Continued
widespread SCA conds anticipated for Tuesday as well. Improving
conditions for Wednesday.

For the area beaches today, the risk of rip currents starts is
moderate. A low risk is expected on Sunday. An increasing onshore
flow should increase the risk back to moderate for Monday.

Rip Currents...

For the area beaches today, the risk of rip currents starts is
moderate. A low risk is expected on Sunday. An increasing onshore
flow should increase the risk back to moderate for Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KNYC: 102/1949
KEWR: 105/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KBDR: 98/1949
KLGA:100/1949
KISP: 97/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KISP: 76/2002


Record Precipitation:

July 6:
KEWR: 1.15/1958
KBDR: 0.75/2024
KJFK: 1.03/2005
KISP: 0.92/2006

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ069>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC