Henrietta, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS61 KBUF 121811
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather will continue today. Most areas will stay dry, although
there may be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the
day in a few spots well inland from the lakes. A weak cold front
will then cross the area late tonight and Wednesday producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms with very uneven coverage. Dry
weather will then return Thursday and last through the end of the
week with temperatures remaining above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another hot afternoon is in progress with highs reaching the lower
half of the 90s across the lower elevations of the lake plains.
There will be some some modest increase in dewpoints today, but not
as high as indicated by blended guidance. Forecast soundings
continue to suggest surface dewpoints mixing out to some extent
this afternoon, with any coverage of 95F or higher heat index too
spotty and brief to justify a Heat Advisory. A weakening trough axis
combined with low level convergence along the Lake Erie lake breeze
boundary will produce a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening from the Southern
Tier ENE across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes to near
the southeast corner of Lake Ontario, but most areas will stay dry.

A mid level trough will move east across northern Ontario and Quebec
tonight through Wednesday night. The majority of the large scale
ascent in terms of DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough, and
upper level jet support, will remain displaced well north of the
area. This will leave a weakly forced cold frontal boundary crossing
the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. Increased low level moisture,
some instability, and convergence along the frontal zone will
support scattered showers and thunderstorms starting very late
tonight in Western NY, then spreading east across the remainder of
the area Wednesday. Coverage of rain will be very uneven, with most
areas seeing too little rain to be beneficial. Temperatures will not
be quite as hot as recent days, but humidity will be higher.

Wednesday night, a few showers will linger especially from the
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and Central NY as the cold
frontal boundary slowly exits the area. Expect partial clearing
overnight for areas closer to the Canadian border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build back into the Northeast US Thursday through
the end of the week, with a return to dry conditions. The post-
frontal airmass will be cooler and much less humid, with highs back
to just slightly above average Thursday and overnight lows cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region, shifting east through the
start of the weekend, resulting in mainly fair dry weather through
Saturday. Temperatures will quickly return to well above average,
with highs close to 90 again Saturday for lower elevations away from
the immediate lakeshores.

Saturday night through the rest of the long term period will
potentially become a bit more active as another cold front crosses
the region and a sfc low potentially develops and crosses over/near
the area. There remain plenty of uncertainty from Sunday evening
onward among the guidance, but overall shower chances look limited
at this point given weak forcing and marginal moisture along the
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly dry weather and VFR will continue this afternoon through most
of tonight with one minor exception. A few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue through early evening along the
southeast edge of the Lake Erie Lake breeze from the western
Southern Tier across the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes
and the southeast corner of Lake Ontario. A few of these may produce
very localized/brief CIG/VSBY restrictions.

A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday,
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rain
chances move into Western NY around or shortly before daybreak, then
spread east across the rest of the area through the day. Coverage of
any thunder and heavier showers with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY
restrictions will be widely scattered at best, with VFR still
prevailing most of the time.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog and local
IFR possible across the Southern Tier each late night and early
morning.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored along the east coast
today with light winds and local lake breeze circulations producing
onshore flow during the afternoon. Light winds will yield minimal
wave heights.

A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. This
front may produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with
locally higher winds and waves. Southwest winds will increase into
the 10-15 knot range ahead of the front late tonight and Wednesday
morning, then become more northwest behind the front Wednesday
night, producing a period of moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock