Hamburg, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

573
FXUS61 KBUF 250700
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide us with dry weather through tonight.
Low pressure tracking southeast across the Ohio Valley on Friday
will bring a wintry mix of precipitation to areas from the Southern
Tier northward to approximately a Buffalo to Dansville line, with
accumulating snow falling further north and east. High pressure will
briefly return Saturday before a more potent low pressure system
moves into the region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak cold front sliding across northern New York this morning with
some light snow showers or flurries across the Saint Lawrence Valley
and North Country. Behind the front, ridging builds in supporting a
dry today that will last into tonight. Incoming airmass not overly
cold with highs today in the 30s. Colder weather is expected by
tonight with lows in the teens across western New York to near
zero across the North Country. Winds chills in the single digits
with negative teens across the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather returns Friday as a mid level shortwave moves
southeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated weak surface
low moving from near the southern end of Lake Michigan in the
morning to the upper Ohio Valley by the evening. While the mid level
and surface features are relatively weak, the system will be moving
through a tightly packed thermal structure across the Great Lakes
and northeast, which will result in a northwest to southeast
oriented ribbon of strong frontogenesis and deformation in the mid
levels. Ascent will be further enhanced by a coupled upper level jet
structure over southeast Canada and NY State. The overall setup may
be supportive of embedded mesoscale banding as well.

While model guidance has mostly converged on a solution for how this
event will play out, given the expected sharp thermal gradient
across the region, subtle differences in the expected storm track
among the different models and their ensembles continues to be a
rather significant source of forecast uncertainty even at this
range. The latest couple of model cycles have jogged the track
slightly back northward (most notable with the NAM), suggesting
wintry mix and snow both reaching a bit further northeastward into
the CWA.

In general, Friday will start dry, then snow will overspread the
area from west to east from late morning through the afternoon,
reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region during the evening. The
snow will peak in intensity during the late afternoon and early
evening, with the axis of heaviest snowfall currently looking to
focus from the Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes. If the latest
northward trend holds, this could extend a bit further into Oswego
County as well. Snowfall rates may reach or exceed 1"/hr in the
heaviest banding.

Across Western NY, sleet and freezing rain will mix in across the
Western Southern Tier and hold down snow accumulations. Ice
accumulations may reach as high as 0.25" across portions of
Chautauqua County, lesser amounts with eastward and northward
extent. The snow to wintry mix line may reach as far northeast as
Buffalo to the southern Finger lakes during the early evening, with
areas northeast of that likely remaining all snow.

Overall the most likely outcome for this event will be advisory
level ice and snowfall amounts. This said, have held off on
headlines with this update as confidence remains low in the wintry
mix extent and timing, as well as overall snowfall amounts. While
max forecasted snow amounts have decreased some, NBM percentile
spread in snow/ice amounts has actually increased over the past
few cycles, suggesting even higher levels of uncertainty in the
ensemble. At least 2-4" seems probable where the heavier snow
is expected from the Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes, though
could still easily see 3-6" or more depending on the evolution
of any mesoscale banding. Less snow will fall across the North
Country further removed from better frontogenetic forcing and
moisture.

The snow will quickly back off in intensity by late Friday evening
and continue to taper off through the night as stronger forcing
moves southeast of the area. Some light snow (and light wintry mix
across southwest NY) will linger overnight before ending by daybreak
Saturday. Not out of the question that precip ends as freezing
drizzle in spots across WNY as DGZ moisture is depleted.

Saturday through Saturday night dry weather will return as high
pressure noses southward into the Northeast from Quebec.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The active weather will continue into next week. A sharpening and
digging mid level trough will cross the Great Lakes into the
Northeast late Sunday through Monday, with a deepening surface low
passing by to our north. Initially, the approach of the deepening
system will allow a strong push of warm air to move into the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday through Sunday evening, with a period of rain
developing ahead of the system. The rain may start as some freezing
rain across the North Country, but otherwise all liquid is expected
for the rest of the area.

A strong cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes late
Sunday night, with rain ending from west to east. Snow showers will
develop a few hours after the cold frontal passage, and deepening
cold air will allow lake effect snow to develop east of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario during the day Monday. Model guidance remains
consistent in initial westerly flow Monday through Monday evening
veering northwest by Tuesday. Off Lake Erie, this would mainly
target the western Southern Tier well south of Buffalo. Off Lake
Ontario, the lake snow would initially focus across the Tug Hill
region before moving southeast of the lake and breaking up into
multiple bands Tuesday. It will be very windy through this period as
well, especially Monday, when wind gusts may reach or exceed 45 mph
across much of the area. The strong winds will produce significant
blowing and drifting snow in lake effect areas.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, some limited lake effect snow may
continue east of the lakes. A clipper low may approach by later in
the day Wednesday, associated with the leading edge of a reinforcing
push of arctic air that is forecast to arrive later next week. This
system will continue to maintain the snow chances in the forecast
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front will makes its way across northern New York this
morning. While the front may generate a few light snow showers
across the North Country (including at KART), its bigger impact will
come in the form of a period of MVFR ceilings that will develop
across the North Country by 12z, then across the rest of the area
later this morning as a NNW upslope flow develops. These lower
ceilings will then dissipate from north to south this afternoon and
evening as high pressure and drier air build into the region.

Outlook...
Tonight...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with a wintry mix likely mainly along and south of
a rough KBUF-KDSV line...and snow likely further north.

Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR with a chance of snow east of
Lake Ontario.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in daytime rain changing to snow through the
overnight hours.

Monday...Localized IFR in moderate to heavy bands of lake effect
snow to the east of the Lakes. Also rather windy with gusts to 40
knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Following a frontal passage this morning, northerly flow will
increase on the eastern waters of Lake Ontario, and will generate
advisory-worthy conditions across the eastern half of the lake that
will last into tonight. As this flow veers to more easterly Friday,
higher waves will transition to the western Lake Ontario waters,
with small craft conditions possible. Otherwise, attention
turns towards Sunday night into Monday when a strong cold front
will move east through the area. Westerly gales are likely with
possible storm force gusts, especially on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/PP
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JJR/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...JJR/Thomas/TMA