Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

975
FXUS61 KBGM 070632
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Fog, some of which could be locally dense was added into the
forecast this evening and overnight; especially across the
higher elevations of NE PA and the Catskills.

Temperatures were lowered through tomorrow with a combination
of east-southeast flow into tomorrow morning and a strong low
level inversion trapping moisture near the surface. The biggest
temperature changes were from I-81 on east. Given the stable
layer in place, thunder chances were also reduced across CNY
toward the Southern Tier through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring a round of rain showers tomorrow,
especially late in the day and at night. A few thunderstorms may
also develop and result in gusty winds and small hail, mainly
west of I-81.

2) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through
at least the middle of next week. This warm weather, combined
with multiple rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk
for some flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

East to southeasterly flow across the area is expected to keep
cloudy and damp conditions in place through the rest of the
afternoon right on through early tomorrow morning for most
locations along with some patchy fog. A strong low-level
inversion in place trapping in moisture near the surface
combined with strong warm air advection overnight will also
contribute to spotty drizzle especially in the higher terrain.
Low temperatures tonight were lowered, especially east of I-81
resulting in a wide range of lows from the low to mid 30s across
the Catskills to the low to mid 40s farther west toward the
Finger Lakes.

As the flow becomes more southerly tomorrow and a warm front
struggles to push north and eastward across CNY, a battle zone
looks to set up over the region out ahead of an approaching cold
front. Areas west of I-81 look to break into the warm sector
with temperatures rising into the mid 50s to the lower to mid
60s (and dew points potentially reaching the mid and upper 50s),
while a strong inversion remains in place, holding temperatures
down farther east in the upper 40s and low 50s. While NAM model
soundings keep the inversion in place through tomorrow evening
across the entire CWA, GFS soundings show the inversion
weakening west of I-81, especially from around the Finger Lakes
toward Syracuse Metro which can allow for some breaks of
sunshine.

By the evening, a cold front will be advancing toward the area
from the west bringing a round of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. PWATs rise to around 1.00 to 1.25 inches, so some
locally heavy downpours are possible. There is some elevated
instability noted, with 500 - 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE along with
50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear but lapse rates look pretty poor
until the actual cold front moves through later on.

If the low level inversion can mix out like the GFS shows, then
a few of these showers and isolated thunderstorms could produce
some locally strong winds, mainly west of I-81 and possibly some
small hail. However, the greater risk for any severe
thunderstorms will likely be west of our region, across western
NY and southward into the Ohio Valley, but there is a small
potential for some strong thunderstorms to persist into our
region tomorrow evening. As a result, SPC has parts of our
region west of I-81 highlighted in a "Marginal Risk" for severe
thunderstorms in their Day 2 Convective Outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Above average temperatures will be in place Sunday through
midweek with high temperatures expected to be the 60s areawide
Monday and Tuesday (with some valley locations making a run at
70 degrees Tuesday from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA). Dry
conditions are largely expected through Tuesday allowing
current river and stream rises that are expected from locally
heavy rainfall later tomorrow into tomorrow evening to recede a
bit before the potential for decent rises likely returns
midweek with a well organized system projected to move through
Wednesday or Thursday. Rivers and streams will need close
monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding,
including possible isolated ice jams.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A complex low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes
will keep restrictive categories across the region through the
period. Brief showers may move through RME and SYR early this
morning. Otherwise MVFR to LIFR is spread over the region
tonight.

A line of showers are expected to move through tomorrow
evening as a cold front passes over the region. There is
potential to see some thunderstorms with this, but confidence
was not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.
Thunderstorm potential mainly depends on whether our area sees
clearing tomorrow afternoon. There is potential for clouds to
scatter out in the afternoon which would bring brief
improvements to VFR. At this moment guidance is suggesting
improvements to MVFR at most sites, but BGM and AVP could hold
onto IFR if clouds dont scatter out.

LLWS is expected overnight and into the morning as a 35-45kt
low level jet moves overhead while surface winds remain
southeast. Surface winds increase later Saturday with gusts up
to 20 knots.


Outlook:

Saturday Night...CIGs could drop lower again across the entire
area. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a front moves
through Saturday evening into the overnight.

Sunday...MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...ES/MJM