Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS61 KBGM 190614
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
214 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures are expected today along with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of an approaching
cold front. A brief cool down on Sunday will be followed by
another warming trend and chance of rain showers early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1000 PM Update...

The remnants of an MCS that was near Milwaukee early this
evening is riding over the top of the mid level ridge into
southern Ontario at this time. Guidance keeps most of this
activity over or north of Lake Ontario overnight...even though
this is a bit of an EML over the area at this time...with mid
level lapse rates now increasing up toward 8-8.5C/KM in the
700-500mb layer. Again, current thinking is that this activity
will remain north of our CWA tonight.

620 PM Update...

Mainly cloudy, breezy and warm this evening with perhaps a few
light showers or sprinkles possible. Dew point depressions
remain around 30F! So any precipitation is having a hard time
making it to the surface. Visible satellite loop shows there
will be a few breaks in the clouds before sunset. Generally
quiet overnight, mild temperatures and intervals of clouds
expected. Showers arrive toward or just before sunrise across
our Finger Lakes counties. Lows hold in the 50s to even lower
60s around the Syracuse area.

Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and PotThunder grids for Saturday
based on the latest CAMs; but overall the forecast remains
nicely on track. It will be warm and humid Saturday, under
mostly cloudy skies. Highs look to reach the mid-70s to lower
80s, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s.

215 PM Update...

A weak pseudo warm front will form along and just north of the
Thruway corridor tonight. Falling heights and a return of low
level moisture will increase chances for showers and sprinkles
for the Finger Lakes region and Western Mohawk Valley. Airmass
is quite dry here at this time and existing showers forming off
Lake Erie and riding into WNY should tend to dissipate as they
arrive here later this afternoon...but have included mention of
sprinkles before the better chances kick in later ahead of a
cold front.

Saturday will feature changeable conditions with a very mild
start and temperatures climbing into the 70s areawide...especially
after starting off from a mild overnight in the 50s. A cold
front will move through during the afternoon hours with showers
and scattered thunderstorms. Model instability shows a few
hundred units of CAPE, but the 0-6km and 0-3km shear will be
quite impressive. Generalized thunder is in the SPC outlook
which seems fine, but we`ll have to keep an eye on convective
parameters ahead of the front and supporting short wave.

Frontal passage occurs Saturday evening with showers ending and colder
air filtering in overnight on blustery NW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

215 AM Update...

High pressure and ridging will continue to build over the region
Sunday night. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes on
Monday, with a warm front pushing into our region. A few rain
showers will be possible through the day Monday with the warm
front. Monday night, a trailing cold front pushes through with
more showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Instability
looking very weak at this time, so no severe storms are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

215 AM Update...

Pattern is looking fairly quiet for next week as high pressure
controls conditions through at least Thursday. Ridging overhead
will bring warm conditions and and above average temperatures
with highs generally in the 60s and low 70s. Models diverge
quite a bit in handling the positioning and strength of the
broad ridging after about Wednesday and any subtle waves passing
over the top, with individual deterministic guidance showing
polar opposite solutions in some time periods. Stuck with NBM
guidance on this lower confidence forecast, which suggests the
next fairly robust probability for noticeable shower activity
comes Friday into Friday night at the very end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to remain through at least 12Z,
along with weak LLWS. Rain showers will move in by the mid to
morning, which may result in some MVFR restrictions at KSYR and
KRME. Otherwise, the majority of the restrictions at the rest of
the terminals will likely hold off until this afternoon with a
batch of heavier showers moving through. Thunder will be
possible as well, but confidence was not high enough to include
thunder in this set of TAFs.

Rain showers will move out of the area this evening, but some
lingering MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected to persist
through the evening for most terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Chance of showers and possible restrictions.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MJM
SHORT TERM...JAB/MPK
LONG TERM...JAB/MPK
AVIATION...BJG