Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

281
FXUS61 KBUF 091050
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers return this afternoon and evening with a few storms that
may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.

2) Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with frost
potential Monday night.

3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with periods
of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers return this afternoon and evening with a few
storms that may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.

The main area of showers will largely stay to our south along the
NY/PA line (S. Tier), this is where the best forcing and lift will
stay. Elsewhere...dry weather will hold with precipitation free
conditions across the eastern Great Lakes expected through this
morning.


Attention turns to a potent shortwave pushing across the upper Great
Lakes within the broader trough, and a cold front nearing the
region. While much of the day look precipitation free, late this
afternoon (after 21Z) we will see increasing chances for showers and
the potential for some thunderstorms. HRRR/NAM suggest SBCAPE of 400-
600 J/KG and bulk shear around 30 knots which would suggest that any
of the stronger storms might be capable of producing gusty winds and
some hail. That said...with a decent southwest flow upstream
convection may not be able to hold together when it encounters the
cooler stabilizing influence of the lakes. Guidance does show this
but will likely redevelop again well inland from the lakes then
convection will move quickly east and weaken as it run into a less
favorable environment given waning instability. SPC has placed far
WNY today in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with the primary
threat locally strong gusty winds and hail.

Tonight...the threat for storms will wane with the departure of the
front and a cooler and drier airmass will filter into the eastern
Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through
Tuesday with frost potential Monday night.

A mean longwave trough will remain in place over the Great Lakes and
New England Sunday through Tuesday, allowing a cool airmass to
remain in place. High temperatures will continue to run around 10F
below average through the first half of next week. The coolest night
will likely be Monday night into Tuesday morning as high pressure
drifts into the eastern Great Lakes, allowing for light winds and
clearing skies. Frost will be likely away from the lakeshores, with
freeze conditions possible in the colder Southern Tier valleys and
Lewis County.

While temperatures will remain cool, model guidance continues to
trend drier through the period. A frontal wave will remain well
south of the area across the Mid Atlantic states Sunday, then off
the east coast Monday. A few spotty light showers cannot be ruled
out, mainly in the afternoon and evening each day given cold air
aloft and diurnal instability, but the vast majority of the time
will be rain free Sunday through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week
with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

A strong shortwave will dive into the mean eastern US trough by the
middle of next week, likely evolving into a mid level closed low
over the Great Lakes by Wednesday. Rain chances will ramp up from
west to east later Tuesday night through Wednesday with the approach
of this feature and associated DPVA, height falls, and moisture
transport. The trough and closed low will continue to move slowly
east through Thursday with rain chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While most TAF sites will see a continuation of VFR this morning,
some showers and MVFR-IFR cigs will impact the southern Tier to
include KJHW. Otherwise...a potent shortwave moving across the upper
Great Lakes will send a cold front east today, with increasing
chances for showers and also the potential for some thunderstorms
after 21Z producing localized restrictions.

Tonight...with the passage of the front showers and any storms will
end from west to east with mainly VFR across area terminals.

Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR-IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow will strengthen today ahead of an
approaching cold front producing choppy conditions on area lakes by
late this afternoon and evening. There will also be the chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 21Z. The cold front will
work from west to east tonight with continued choppy conditions
through Sunday, with potential low end SCA levels especially on the
east end of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR