Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS61 KBUF 150017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
717 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake snows will focus southeast of the lakes for the majority of
tonight...it will also be cold with temps in the teens to single
digits, to even below zero for some locales east of Lake Ontario.
Lake snow begin to shift back north by Monday morning with
accumulating snows northeast of Lake Erie on Monday, with the
potential for another foot of snow to fall east of Lake Ontario
through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow will focus lake snow southeast of both lakes
tonight...accumulation wise expect no more than a few inches (1-2")
with localized higher amounts up to 3" in the most persistent snows
tonight.

It will also be cold tonight with temps in the low teens to single
digits in many spots. We will even see mercury readings fall below
zero east of Lake Ontario. It will definitely be a good night for a
fire. Stay warm!

Otherwise...wind flow will begin to back to the southwest late
tonight and Monday morning. This will occur in response to the
incoming shortwave trough diving southeast across the upper Great
Lakes. The incoming shortwave and increasing synoptic moisture will
aid in re-invigoraing lake snows, northeast of northeast of Lake
Erie and west of Lake Ontario. Advisory level snows, with afternoon
commute travel impacts are likely for the northern Niagara Frontier
through Monday night, while a longer fetch over Lake Ontario and
enhancement from upstream Lake Erie will allow for warning level
snow amounts Monday afternoon through Monday night. Snowfall rates
east of Lake Ontario may reach up to 3 inches per hour for an hour
or two Monday evening, with snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour
otherwise. Outside the lake enhanced bands of snow, just a coating
to an inch of fresh snow Monday with the Clipper low passing
through.

Later Monday night the mean wind flow begins to lighten, allowing
for the snowbands to contract back towards the Lakes and weaken with
dry air advecting through the snow DGZ and lowering lake inversion
heights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough exits the Northeast coast Tuesday, a more
zonal and progressive flow pattern will spread across the eastern
United States. Initially, surface high pressure centered over the
Southeastern Atlantic Coast ridging northward across the eastern
Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Ongoing lake effect snow, east of Lake
Ontario will continue to peter out and push north across the
Watertown metro area through Tuesday afternoon. Additional snow
amounts of up to an inch will be possible.

Aforementioned surface high pressure will slide east off of the
Atlantic coast Tuesday night supporting, strong warm air advection
will ensue aloft. Overall, dry weather and seasonable weather is
expected Tuesday night.

Heading into Wednesday, the next weak trough will slide east across
the eastern Great Lakes supporting a weak cold front to pass across
western and north central New York. Ahead of the frontal passage,
warm air advection will support temperatures to rise above normal.
Additionally associated with the frontal passage, chances for a few
rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake
Ontario.

A transient ridge will pass across the region Wednesday night,
supporting another brief period of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep southwesterly flow ensues across the region Thursday as a
sharp, but progressive mid/upper level trough digs south across the
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong warm air advection and deeper
moisture streaming in from the south ahead of this feature will
bring the likelihood of mainly rain showers by Thursday afternoon as
temperatures rise into the upper 30s and 40s. It will also become
very windy as a 60-70 knot southerly low-level jet moves across the
area. Being that the jet is in the warm air advection side of the
system, expect only partial mixing down of the winds aloft. That
said, a very tight pressure gradient setting up across the area due
to strong low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will bring
the potential for strong winds, especially across downslope areas.

A round of rain and wind is then expected Thursday night as a strong
cold front plows across the area. Rain will rapidly change to snow
behind the front due to a shot of much colder air moves in behind
the boundary. 40-50 knot low-level jet lingers in the cold air
advection regime as deepening low pressure pulls northeast into
southern Quebec, so expect gusty winds for Thursday night and Friday
as well, with temperatures feeling much more like winter once again
to finish out the work week. Some potential lake effect snow on
Friday as well with much colder air in place. This powerful system
and cold front will need to be monitored closely over the coming
days for potential impactful weather (especially strong winds)
across western and north central area.

The roller coaster of temperatures will continue through the
weekend, as a strong warm front pushes across the region boosting
temperatures back towards normal Saturday, before falling back
towards normal Sunday with the passage of a cold front. With the
frontal passages, brings the chance for rain/higher terrain snow
showers Saturday and snow showers Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake snows will focus primarily southeast of the lakes
tonight...this will bring at times periods of lower cigs and vsbys.

Otherwise...VFR to MVFR conditions will be found across
many terminals tonight.

Winds will back to southwest late tonight and Monday morning in
response to the incoming shortwave trough which will nudge lakes
snows back north. This will `likely` bring some impacts (IFR-LIFR)
for terminals (KBUF, KIAG, and KART) northeast of both lakes on
Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario early,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow
showers east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing along
with strong southerly winds. Rain changes to snow Thursday night
along a cold front passage. Strong winds veer from southerly to
westerly.

Friday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow. Otherwise MVFR/VFR.
Strong westerly to northwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
All headlines (SCAs) will remain in place tonight...even though
winds will relax for a brief period. Another clipper cold front will
cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. This will
bring another period of strong WSW winds to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario Monday late morning through Monday night, with high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Thomas
NEAR TERM...AR/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/JM
AVIATION...AR/Thomas
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock/Thomas