Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

003
FXUS61 KBUF 300008
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
808 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread, soaking rain will continue into this evening before
tapering off from west to east overnight.

2) Unsettled weather is expected from late in the week through the
beginning of next week.

3) Cool weather will support the potential for frost or freeze
headlines Thursday night through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread, soaking rain will continue into this
evening before tapering off from west to east overnight.

A deep mid level trough will become established across the Great
Lakes through Thursday, with a well defined shortwave crossing the
eastern Great Lakes this evening. An elongated surface low
developing along the frontal zone will reach southwest NY this
afternoon before moving to the Saint Lawrence Valley by late this
evening. Large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave will maximize
this afternoon and evening, and combine with a period of thermal
packing and strong frontogenesis in the low/mid levels along and
northwest of the frontal wave track to support widespread, soaking
rainfall.

The most widespread rain over Western NY this afternoon will center
on the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario
region this evening. The steady rain will taper off and end later
this evening across Western NY, with the back edge of the rain
exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region by around daybreak Thursday.
Rainfall totals will be in the 0.75" to 1.25" range for the bulk of
the area. Far Western NY may be the only location that remains at or
below 0.50" with a shorter period of soaking rain expected at the
western edge of the deeper moisture and forcing from the frontal
wave.

The steady rain will be gone by Thursday morning. A mid level closed
low will stall just north of the Great Lakes, with cool cyclonic
flow aloft, steepening low level lapse rates, and lingering boundary
layer moisture supporting a few scattered showers in the afternoon
and evening with modest daytime heating. The best chance of a few
showers will be across Western NY and the North Country where
somewhat deeper low level moisture will be found.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather is expected from late in the week
through the beginning of next week.

An upper level trough will reside across the Great Lakes region from
late in the week through the weekend. GOES water vapor imagery this
afternoon shows a shortwave trough across the Northern Plains that
will close off over the Northern Great Lakes through tonight. A cold
pool aloft and daytime heating will support the chance for
developing clouds and showers Friday afternoon through the
weekend. Greater coverage in rain showers is expected Friday
afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. Cold air
advection is expected behind the front Friday night through
Saturday with 850mb temperatures falling to -6C. Low freezing
heights will support graupel/snow mixing with rain showers
Saturday afternoon with any lingering showers briefing changing
over to all snow showers across the higher terrain Saturday
night. Little to no snow accumulation is expected during this
time.

Westerly winds will be on the lighter side with modest wind gusts
up to 25mph during the afternoon hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cool weather will support the potential for frost or
freeze headlines from late in the week through Sunday morning.

An upper level trough will bring an anomalously cold airmass for
this time of year across the eastern Great Lakes region from late in
the week through the weekend. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures
will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday night through
Saturday night. In particular, minimum temperatures are expected to
fall into the 30s and even the 20s across the higher terrain on some
nights. There remains high uncertainty regarding the amount of cloud
cover through the weekend, which may impact how cold it gets. The
growing season begins for the majority of the forecast area on May
1. This applies to areas with the exception of Cattaraugus,
Allegany, Jefferson, and Lewis counties.

Behind the exiting trough, temperatures will climb closer to
seasonal values Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of low pressure over the Finger Lakes region early this
evening will continue moving north-northeast to the Saint
Lawrence Valley by late this evening. Deep layer ascent and deep
moisture will maintain a widespread soaking rain from the
Genesee Valley to the North Country, with the back edge of the
steadier rain tapering off across the Finger Lakes region by the
early overnight hours, lastly tapering off across the North
Country late tonight. MVFR/IFR VSBY can be expected in the
steadier/ heavier rain from the Finger Lakes eastward, along
with widespread IFR CIGS.

Although the steadier rain has tapered off across Western NY,
areas of lighter showers will continue through late evening.
Expect this same scenario to translate east through tonight in
the wake of the steadier rain shield. VSBY will improve to VFR
from west to east for lower elevations as the rain ends, with
some MVFR/IFR lingering across higher terrain overnight. CIGS
will improve to MVFR/low VFR across the Niagara Frontier this
evening, with IFR/MVFR hanging on for the remainder of the
lower elevations through the overnight, and IFR lingering
across higher terrain.

Thursday, a few scattered showers will linger across the North
Country. A few additional scattered showers may develop across
Western NY during the afternoon and early evening with steep low
level lapse rates and cool air aloft working on lingering shallow
low level moisture during modest daytime heating. MVFR/higher
terrain IFR CIGS will slowly improve toward low VFR through the
afternoon on the lake plains, with MVFR hanging on across
higher terrain.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers at
times. Some wet snowflakes may mix in across higher terrain, mainly
Friday night through Saturday night.

Monday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A wave of low pressure will cross the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight
before moving north across Quebec Thursday. Westerly winds will
gradually increase on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie overnight through
Thursday, producing choppy conditions on both lakes. The best chance
of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will be on the east half
of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.

Looking further out through the end of the week, a continued
unseasonably cool airmass and moderate pressure gradient may support
additional periods of SCA conditions at times, particularly across
Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday
         for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR