Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS61 KBUF 271843
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds tonight ahead of a cold front, with the front
crossing our region late tonight with light rain and higher
terrain snow.

2) A second cold front to bring additional light snow Saturday night
and early Sunday, followed by a much colder airmass early next week.

3) Multiple shortwave troughs midweek to bring rain and snow.

4) Warming trend commences mid-week with well above normal warmth
late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds tonight ahead of a cold front, with the
front crossing our region late tonight with light rain and higher
terrain snow.

A cold front will cross our region between 09Z and 15Z Saturday.
Ahead of the cold front a vigorous, yet short-lived, SSW LLJ of 50
to 55 knots, based at 2K feet will be upon us. Not a favorable
direction for downslope flow off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill,
yet still could have SE winds up to 35 to 40 mph in these favored
downslope areas...with winds gusting up to 35 mph for the northern
Niagara Frontier.

Moisture is limited along the front, with greatest chances for
measurable precipitation east of Lake Ontario. The southerly flow
tonight will keep temperatures and boundary layer above freezing,
such that plain rain will be the predominate p-type...with just the
Tug Hill potentially receiving some wet snowflakes, with little to
no accumulation.

This cold front will push east of our region early Saturday, with
any lingering light rain or wet snow east of Lake Ontario ending by
mid-Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A second cold front to bring additional light snow
Saturday night and early Sunday, followed by a much colder airmass
early next week.

A mid level trough will dig into the Great Lakes Saturday night
through Sunday, driving a secondary cold front southeast across the
region.

The 12Z model guidance continues to suggest a weak baroclinic wave
will develop along the advancing frontal zone Saturday night across
the eastern Great Lakes, with associated mid level frontogenesis and
added support from a coupled upper level jet structure. Increased
forcing for ascent will support an area of light snow crossing the
area from west to east overnight Saturday night, exiting by early
Sunday morning.

The rapid movement of the system and lack of deeper moisture will
keep snow amounts light, generally a coating to an inch in most
areas, and possibly up to 2 inches across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Much colder and drier air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes
Sunday in the wake of the secondary cold front, with this arctic
airmass lingering through Monday. Highs will be below normal Sunday
and Monday, with values in the 20s (teens North Country). Lows
Sunday night will be in the single digits in most areas, below zero
across the North Country.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Multiple shortwave troughs midweek to bring rain and
snow.

Multiple shortwave troughs will ripple across our region next
Tuesday and through the end of the forecast period of Friday.

Southerly flow ahead of each of these waves should keep
precipitation favoring rain for WNY, while east of Lake Ontario
where the warming trend will not be as great, snow or a snow/rain
mixture will be favored.

While there are model differences on the timing of these multiple
shortwaves, the NBM 24- hour probability for half an inch of
precipitation, and potential wettest period, peaks Thursday-Thursday
night at 50 to 60 percent for higher terrain east of the Lakes.

Wednesday may be the period that remains dry, with high pressure
over southern Canada pushing a baroclinic boundary south of the
region...and a drier airmass pouring over our region.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Warming trend commences mid-week with well above
normal warmth late week.

A Pacific zonal flow across our region mid-week will support
temperatures at 850 hPa climbing above zero Celsius.

A series of shortwave troughs are expected to carve a long wave
trough over the western US, with downstream height rises over the
east coast. This will translate to maximum temperatures in the lower
40s Tuesday/Wednesday, with forecasted maximum temperatures
increasing to the upper 40s by next Friday.

Current NBM probabilities give 90% chance of reaching 50F near the
state line, with a 60% chance of reaching 50 up to the NYS Thruway.
East of Lake Ontario percent chance for 50F is much less, coming in
at 10 to 20%.

These temperatures, along with anticipated greater warmth for next
weekend and forecasted rainfall, will give rise on area creeks, with
any remaining ice covered creeks and rivers possibly at risk for ice
jams.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue through the remainder of today
through the first half of tonight, although some areas of lower-end
VFR will move across areas from the Niagara Frontier east and
northeast into the North Country through the afternoon hours.

A cold front will sweep west to east across the region late tonight
into Saturday morning causing CIGS to lower into the lower-end
VFR/MVFR range and will also bring the chance for a few mainly rain
showers during this timeframe as conditions remain relatively mild
ahead of the cold front. Expect improving flight conditions from
west to east in the wake of the cold frontal passage through the
morning hours Saturday along with any lingering light rain/higher
elevation snow showers coming to an end.

Winds will also ramp up tonight in advance of the cold front as the
surface pressure gradient tightens and winds off the deck ramp up.
This will produce widespread south-southwest gusts up to 20-25 knots
at times, with gusts up to 30 knots northeast of the lakes. This
strong 50-60 knot LLJ between 010-020 kft will also pose another
hazard as it moves overhead tonight. With stable thermal profiles in
place, the degree to which these stronger winds off the deck will be
able to mix down to the surface will be limited. This will bring the
potential for LLWS at times as well that will impact all of the
western and northcentral NY terminals from mid to late evening
through late tonight. Just how well winds can mix to the surface
will determine the magnitude of LLWS at any given location. Winds
will then weaken through Saturday morning in the wake of the cold
frontal passage.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Conditions improving to VFR.

Saturday night...Areas of light snow/associated IFR likely.

Sunday...Areas of MVFR with a few light snow showers possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers likely.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
After quiet conditions today...the next period of stronger winds and
advisory-worthy conditions will arrive tonight as a cold front
crosses the lower Great Lakes...with conditions then gradually
improving from west to east Saturday and Saturday evening.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM
         EST Saturday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM