Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS61 KBUF 251851
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjustments made to the placement and accumulations of lake effect
snow off Lake Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday night. Totals
notably increased across Oswego County.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread snow will continue through tonight, with wrap around
lake enhanced snow through Monday night.

2) Increasing confidence in moderate to heavy lake effect snow east
and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday, though
potentially beyond as well.

3) Frigid air will remain locked in across the Great Lakes through
the entire week, with a couple of opportunities for headline-worthy
wind chills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread snow will continue through tonight, with
wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday night.

An area of elongated surface low pressure currently spread from
Alabama to southeastern Kentucky will continue to gradually
strengthen and track northeast this afternoon. Current radar imagery
depicts a band of steadier precipitation across much of western and
central New York as of noon time. This steadier, and efficient
snowfall will continue this afternoon and last well into this
evening across western and central New York, while spreading further
northeast into the eastern Great Ontario region due to the
combination of an area of deeper moisture and strong ascent from the
nose of the low level jet pushing northeast overhead of New York
State. The bulk of the heavier snow will fall through tonight,
before exiting from southwest to northeast as the surface low
traverses from the Mid-Atlantic to the coast of New England.

By Monday morning, wrap around moisture combined with the passage of
a mid-level trough will support some widespread nuisance snow
showers to persist across the region with some embedded upslope/lake
enhancement east of Lake Erie Monday and pure lake enhancement along
the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario Monday and Monday night.
Additionally some Lake Huron lake effect may also reach into the
Niagara Frontier at times Monday afternoon and evening.

This all being said, snowfall amounts from the widespread snow will
range from 9 to 18 inches, with the highest amounts lying across the
higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
region, and southeast of Lake Ontario. Additional snow accumulations
Monday will be minor, generally just 1 to 2 inches in most areas,
with some 3 inch amounts in lake enhancement areas, especially
southeast of Lake Ontario across far northern Cayuga, and into
western Oswego counties.

Outside of the snow, northwest winds will increase some Monday
afternoon with gusts in the 20-30 mph range, producing some limited
blowing and drifting in open areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing confidence in moderate to heavy lake
effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday through
Wednesday, though potentially beyond as well.

The axis of an increasingly positively tilted mid-level trough will
cross the central and eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. This will force a
disorganized clipper sfc low east across southern ON/QC provinces.
Associated weak cold front will extend down into the forecast area,
resulting in a veering of the low level flow from southwesterly
Tuesday morning to northwesterly by Tuesday night. While the front
could bring some nuisance minor snowfall to the entire area, the
main focus will be the invigorated lake response off Lake Ontario.
Strong low-level convergence and increasing saturation will cause
the primary band to strengthen in the vicinity of the
Jefferson/Oswego County border early Tuesday evening before shifting
southward, likely settling between Wayne and southern Oswego
overnight. BUFKIT soundings indicate EQL heights topping out around
13-15kft as this shift occurs with deep lift through the DGZ. This
should allow for a period of 1-2" per hour snowfall rates, though as
as the band moves through Oswego in particular, these rates could be
as high as 2-3" per hour. Still a bit of uncertainty in peak
potential strength, though the main uncertainty here is the timing
and speed of this southward push which will have major implications
on expected snowfall. Significant localized impacts in the area can
still be expected regardless.

The primary lake effect band is expected to remain mobile Wednesday
through Thursday, though with increased uncertainty in placement and
strength. A weak shortwave followed by a closed upper low pivoting
south of James Bay will likely cause the band to wobble back
northwards towards the Tug Hill for a time Wednesday, before yet
another southward push orients the main lake effect area southeast
of the lake Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter, long range
ensembles indicate a prevailing northwesterly flow through the end
of the week with cold air locked in place, which could allow for
continued snows south/southeast of Lake Ontario.

Not to go completely unmentioned, lake effect potential east of Lake
Erie remains questionable at best. Rapid increases in ice coverage
and thickness over the past week should greatly mute any response
from the lake through the week, though some thinner ice between Long
Point and Buffalo could be enough to locally enhance snowfall
downwind of the lake at times. PoPs/QPF are both a bit higher across
the higher terrain compared to surrounding areas to account for this
possibility as well as to catch any potential upslope enhancement.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Frigid air will remain locked in across the Great
Lakes through the entire week, with a couple of opportunities for
headline-worthy wind chills.

In the wake of the major winter storm, the broad-scale longwave
pattern across the CONUS will struggle to significantly change
through the course of the week. Stout ridging will persist west of
the Plains while deep longwave troughing remains locked in across
the Northeastern quadrant. This will allow for a continuous flow of
frigid Canadian air down across the lakes. In addition to the lake
effect snow this will produce, high temps will struggle to escape
the teens and single digits while lows above and below zero in the
single digits will be commonplace.

In regards to temps/wind chills, the first timeframe of elevated
concern this week will be Monday night as colder air is initially
wrapped back in behind the current major winter system and winds
pick up in strength overnight. Wind chills of -10F to -20F look
plausible into early Tuesday. As a deep closed low drags an even
colder airmass southward after midweek, it`s not out of the question
that wind chills in this range return Wednesday night, though
Thursday night could be even more frigid as the airmass moves more
solidly overhead. Wind chills of -20F to -30F are possible in this
timeframe, especially if lake effect clouds manage to clear out in
some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread steady to heavy snow currently impacting all TAF sites,
supporting VLIFR in heavy snow to LIFR snow in steady snow. These
conditions will persist through this afternoon before improving to
LIFR/IFR this evening and possibly some IFR/MVFR overnight as the
steadier synoptic snow pulls northeast into New England. However
this being said, in the wake of the departing system, areas of lake
enhanced snow south and southeast of the lakes will support IFR
conditions to persist overnight and through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night...IFR in localized lake enhanced snow southeast of
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

Thursday and Friday...Chance of snow, locally heavier near the
Lakes. IFR or below is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh easterlies/northeasterlies lie across Lake Ontario this
afternoon due to a tight pressure gradient between departing high
pressure over New England and incoming low pressure from the
southwest. These easterlies will remain elevated through tonight
before backing to the north and weakening late tonight into Monday
morning as low pressure pulls northeast off the New England coast. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the western half of Lake
Ontario from later this morning through mid morning Monday.

Following a brief lull in the winds first half of Monday, winds will
freshen on both lakes Monday afternoon and remain elevated, with
small craft conditions possible through at least mid week on both
lakes, possibly persisting over Lake Ontario for much of the
upcoming week. Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore
waters are now ice covered.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5 (1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7 (1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3 (1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ001-002-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/PP
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/JM
CLIMATE...HSK