Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

837
FXUS61 KBUF 161042
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
542 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tightened the temperature gradient across the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Increased snow amounts and lowered temperatures
across the North Country.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak shortwave will bring a chance of some light precipitation
tonight, with stratus and areas of fog.

2) An active pattern returns by the middle of next week with chances
for rain, snow, and potentially a wintry mix at times.

3) Above freezing temps and rainfall may lead to some hydro concerns
during the mid-late week period.

4) Seasonably colder weather looks to return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak shortwave will bring a chance of some light
precipitation tonight, with stratus and areas of fog.

Low stratus deck has expand across the Southern Tier and Niagara
Frontier, with some pockets of fog this morning. Otherwise... a
relatively quite weather expected again across the region today.

Attention now turns to a weak shortwave for tonight which will bring
some light precipitation to the region. Thermal profiles suggest that
p-type will be in the liquid form...except areas east of Lake
Ontario where deep colder air will reside. We could see up to an
inch of snow across the higher terrain (Tug Hill). There will also
be the potential for -FZDZ resulting in a light coating of ice as
moisture depletes out of the DGZ. Additionally...we may see some
areas of fog overnight, this as moisture lingers beneath a lowering
subsidence inversion.

While there won`t be much in terms of precipitation Tuesday, we might
just stay enshrouded within a low cloud deck all day. Not
particularly cold either with Max T`s found in the 30s east of Lake
Ontario to low/mid 40s elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active pattern returns by the middle of next week
with chances for rain, snow, and potentially a wintry mix at times.

In contrast to the weaker clipper systems earlier in the week,
deeper Pacific-based troughing will continue to encroach on the
Great Lakes region in the second half of the week. The arrival of
more significant low/mid level jet forcing, isentropic lift and deep
layer moisture associated with these waves of low pressure will
cause precipitation to initially overspread the entire region from
the west/northwest starting early Wednesday morning. The sfc low
associated with this first slug of precip will shear apart and
weaken substantially over the forecast area as it runs up against
strong Arctic high pressure extending down from northern Manitoba.
There will likely be a break Wednesday night and early Friday
between this dissipating low and the next Pacific wave, with
significant uncertainty in timing of the following systems over the
weekend.

Precip type continues to be a significant forecast challenge
Wednesday through Saturday. This is due to a tight low to mid level
thermal gradient that is expected to remain situated across the
eastern Great Lakes as cold air circulates southward around the
aforementioned high to the north while warmer air is forced
northward by the approaching low pressure systems to the west. This
clashing of airmasses directly over the region will be marginally
supportive for both rain and snow across a large portion of the
region, and very sensitive to subtle changes in thermal boundary
position and orientation. The passage of these low pressure waves
will also cause the boundary to evolve and make latitudinal
movements over time, and while guidance is converging on a common
solution in this regard, uncertainty in the details at increasing
forecast range ramp up faster than what is typical.

All that said...Ensemble consensus continues to favor rain as the
dominant precipitation type west of the Finger Lakes region. Have
trended a bit closer to the NAM with this update which favors the
locking in of colder air and more snow up across the North Country,
especially across the higher elevations. The region in between and
near the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario is where ptypes continue
to be most uncertain. Will also need to keep an eye the potential
for a wintry mix including freezing rain. Thermal profiles need to
be just right for this to occur though but it is plausible at times
given the synoptic setup. At this range, the risk for freezing rain
will be highest at precipitation onset early Wednesday morning and
again early Friday morning, especially before dawn. The threat for
any impactful freezing rain will likely be lower in the daytime
hours with the relatively steep February sun angle coming into play.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above freezing temps and rainfall may lead to some
hydro concerns during the mid-late week period.

On top of the wintry ptype concerns, will also need to monitor how
above freezing temperatures and rain further ripen the snowpack,
increase runoff, and cause ice to shift on area creeks and streams
in the second half of the week. Water levels may already be swollen
from the warmup earlier in the week which could potentially cause or
exacerbate hydro issues.

With rain and warmer temperatures more heavily favored across far
western NY, the greatest risk for hydro issues will likely be on the
Buffalo area creeks and streams. As of this update, the typically
aggressive NAEFS only shows about a 30% chance for most area
waterways to reach Action stage this week, with a 10% chance of a
few reaching Minor flood. GEFS/HEFS ensembles are notably lower
overall but will keep an close eye on trends as we progress through
the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Seasonably colder weather looks to return this
weekend.

Looking towards next weekend...Long range ensembles are relatively
consistent in much colder air wrapping back in behind one of the
late-week Pacific waves, with deep longwave troughing becoming
established across the Northeast. This will likely cause any rain or
mixed precip to change over to all snow by the second half of the
weekend, with 850mb temps eventually becoming cold enough for at
least some lake enhancement by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low level moisture and weak flow will support some stratus and fog
development which will at times impact terminals through this
morning. Expect only gradual improvement through the day, with CIGS
MVFR to low end VFR during the afternoon.

Tonight...a weak shortwave will bring some light rain and snow
showers to the region. There is a low chance of -FZDZ at KART
overnight, mainly due to loss of moisture within the DGZ. Low
stratus expected to expand across the entire region, with IFR to
LIFR cigs and areas of fog into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...IFR/MVFR in low stratus, a wintry mix arrives late Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...Widespread IFR with rain and/or snow becoming likely.
Some wintry mix including freezing rain also possible in some
locations.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, with pockets of lingering IFR with a chance of
rain and snow.

Friday...Widespread IFR with rain/snow likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak shortwave will approach today and then pass through tonight,
with a  brief uptick in winds and wave action.

The next chance for Small Crafts will arrive Wednesday, with
easterly flow picking up on the western and southern shoreline of
Lake Ontario.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR