Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

049
FXUS61 KBUF 200137
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
937 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight,
with a few strong storms and an isolated severe storm possible.

2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of passing
cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the
potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening
into overnight, with a few strong storms and an isolated severe
storm possible.

A surface low, crossing Quebec tonight, will drag its cold front
across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to
3AM. However ahead of the front`s arrival, strong to isolated severe
storms will spread from west to east this evening. Earlier CAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially from the late afternoon),
combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear supported strong to severe
wind gusts upstream of WNY, with some of those stronger winds
continuing this evening at times. The Storm Prediction Center
continues to highlight most of the forecast region under a
Marginal Risk (Risk level 1 of 5), with the best window for
strong storms occurring through 1-2AM tonight.

While the risk for strong to a few severe thunderstorms will
continue this evening, thunderstorms currently across WNY are
starting to weaken.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake
of passing cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday,
before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday
weekend.

In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air
and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later
half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The
coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the
50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures
heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and
a few locations reaching the low 70s.

While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure
will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return
of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the forecast
area through the overnight. Some gusty winds and heavy downpours
will be possible within showers, especially along and north of I90.
Reductions in flight cats will be possible in heavier showers to IFR
VSBYs. Outside of showers, mainly VFR CIGs through the evening will
lower to MVFR and then IFR through daybreak as a cold front crosses
the region. Higher terrain LIFR will be possible late tonight at
times.

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the passing
cold front. This will result in improving flight conditions after
daybreak on Wednesday, with all terminals expected to be VFR by
mid/late morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low
pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift to the northwest and bring another round of Small
Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be
somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop
through Wednesday.

Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into
overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across
the lakes producing gusty winds.

Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
         for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...EAJ