Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

080
FXUS61 KBUF 260756
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure tracking from WNY to northern NY this
morning is causing a widespread swath of soaking rain to push across
the Buffalo forecast area through daybreak. Lighter and more
scattered showers will linger through the day today with a large
trough remaining over the region. High pressure will then build into
the region late tonight through Monday night, providing drier
weather for the second half of the weekend and into the start of the
new week. Showers and thunderstorms return for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steadier rain over the WNY area will continue to shift east-
northeast into the North Country through daybreak before
exiting to the east. The back edge of the rain, already clearing
through most of WNY will bring a transition from the steadier
rain/showers to more scattered and lighter showers that will
linger through much of the day today.

Steadier rain this morning is associated with an area of low
pressure tracking from near the western end of Lake Ontario to
northern NY through the early morning hours. Lighter, more scattered
showers through the day today are expected as a mid-level trough and
low track across the region through tonight. Showers today will be
most favorable for areas east of Lake Ontario and for areas of
upsloping within a west to northwest flow across the area. With the
damp airmass and broad cyclonic flow over the region, areas of mist
with some fog and lower overcast clouds can be expected for much of
the day, resulting in a cool damp feeling type of day. Cold air
advection behind the passing sfc low will cause temperatures to drop
through the day today into the upper 40s for most areas by the late
afternoon.

Tonight, showers over WNY will start to scatter out as the eastern
edge of a large sfc high, along with a much drier airmass start to
push into the area. Further east, showers will linger through much
of the night east of Lake Ontario, especially where upsloping is
favorable. Closer proximity to the mid-level low and trough along
with remaining in the moist airmass will continue the potential for
showers though overall for the entire area east of Lake Ontario. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s to low 40s from the
higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. Some snow may
mix in overnight across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, but
little to no accumulations are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level trough will slowly depart Sunday. Any lingering light rain
showers (mixed wet snowflakes across higher terrain) east of Lake
Ontario in the morning will end by afternoon, as drier air brings
improving conditions from western New York eastward.

Clear skies and light winds with high pressure overhead Sunday night
will allow for temperatures to drop into the 30s.

High pressure sliding east Monday with a warm and dry day expected
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fair weather will continue
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active day is becoming more likely for Tuesday as deep southerly
flow ushers in a moisture rich airmass and instability that coupled
with a strong LLJ will bring favorable conditions for at least
locally strong thunderstorms.

Still a little timing uncertainty among the model guidance, mainly
as to how much sunshine/ rain showers will be around in the morning
hours. Siding with the NBM as well as the 12Z Canadian and 12Z ECMWF
much of Tuesday morning should be dry before storms erupt during the
afternoon and evening hours. PWAT values rising to over an inch
along with daytime temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s will
create SBCAPE values over 1K J/KG. A strengthening LLJ to 50-55 knots
running parallel to the cold front will favor linear structures to
thunderstorms, while increasing CAPE in the mid levels will also
favor the formation of hail in stronger storms.

Afternoon and evening timing on the storms within a prefrontal
trough, with a breezy westerly to northwesterly wind through
Wednesday behind the passage of a cold front Tuesday night.

Mainly dry conditions Wednesday through at least Thursday morning,
though a secondary cold front may clip the North Country with a few
showers Wednesday. Returning moisture ahead of the mid level trough
will return unsettled weather Thursday afternoon through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Steadier rain moving across the BUF CWA this morning will transition
to lighter more scattered rain showers. Steadier rain is mostly done
across far WNY and the area of rain should move through and exit the
eastern portions of the forecast area by daybreak. Starting with the
steadier rain, IFR/MVFR VSBY and IFR/LIFR CIG conditions are
persistent. Some improvements to both CIGs and VSBYs with the more
scattered showers, but the atmosphere remains very moist and periods
of BR and lower CIGs will continue to cause reductions to flight
cats.

Today, a moist atmosphere along with broad cyclonic flow will
continue the potential for showers, especially east of Lake Ontario
and for areas where upsloping occurs. Morning IFR with periods of
LIFR CIGs will improve some through the day from west to east, but
mainly to higher end IFR and lower end MVFR. Lower VSBYs to IFR will
also slowly improve from west to east as well to MVFR and VFR. East
of Lake Ontario, IFR CIGs/VSBY with periods of LIFR CIGs are
expected for most of the day.

Tonight, conditions slowly improve south of Lake Ontario through the
night to at least MVFR, and to VFR late. East of Lake Ontario,
mainly IFR with periods of LIFR are expected for both CIGs and VSBY.
Showers continue east of Lake Ontario as well.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, but morning MVFR cigs and scattered showers east of
Lake Ontario.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR with afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold air advection along with a tightening pressure gradient behind
an area of low pressure tracking across Lake Ontario this morning
will result in increased winds on both lakes today, but especially
on Lake Ontario. This will cause Small Craft Advisory conditions
as winds increasing out the west to northwest.

High pressure building into the region tonight into Sunday will
result in weakening winds on Lake Erie tonight and on Lake Ontario
for Sunday. Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels from
late Sunday afternoon through Monday night with high pressure
continuing to build just south of the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
         Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM
         EDT Sunday for LOZ042-045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW