Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS61 KBUF 051124
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pass from west to east today, supporting a light
general snowfall. After a chilly start, especially for those across
the North Country, warmer air will arrive and last through mid week.
The next system will arrive Tuesday bringing the potential for a
wintry mix and some rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A surface warm front and associated clipper system passing across
the Great Lakes this morning. This front will soon slide east across
the region. Moisture and increasing ascent ahead of the front is
supporting a general snowfall to arrive to western New York around
the morning rush hour. Activity will then spread east, reaching the
eastern Lake Ontario region by mid to late morning. While QPF totals
will range between 0.15 to 0.25 inches, warming temperature profiles
will support lower snowfall ratios (on average around 10:1 to 12:1).
As such, snowfall amounts will range from a dusting across the
Southern Tier, to 1-2 inches across the Niagara Frontier and north
of the Finger Lakes. Colder areas east of Lake Ontario, will see
slightly higher snowfall totals ranging between 2-3 inches,

Snow will quickly taper off from west to east, this afternoon into
this evening. Dry weather will then last through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Zonal flow will have taken hold across North America by Tuesday,
allowing for the arrival of warmer air in the eastern Great Lakes. A
Pacific shortwave will cross the Great Lakes Tuesday through Tuesday
night, with an associated surface low over or just north of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario. Warmer air surface and aloft will allow most
of the precipitation to fall as rain Tuesday through Tuesday
evening. The one exception will be across the North Country where
low level cold air lingers. This may allow for a wintry mix
including some minor snow accumulations and freezing rain, mainly
across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Tug Hill Plateau with areas
closer to Lake Ontario likely seeing just rain.

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, just enough cold air
will wrap into the back of the system to allow the rain to end as a
mix of rain and wet snow, with minor less than 1" accumulations
possible across the higher terrain.

High pressure will then build into the Ohio Valley, with dry weather
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will drift slowly off the east coast Thursday,
supporting a continuation of dry weather. Ongoing warm advection
will allow temperatures to climb well into the 40s in most areas,
with upper 30s to lower 40s for the North Country.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is in better agreement today
with the Friday through Saturday period, with the much warmer and
wetter model scenarios winning out. The pattern will quickly amplify
again across North America, with a deep trough developing over the
midsection of the nation by Saturday. A moisture rich frontal zone
will develop downstream of the trough over the eastern US, with most
model runs suggesting several waves of low pressure moving along
this boundary and through the Great Lakes.

The first wave of low pressure will bring increasing rain chances
from west to east Friday. The final wave of low pressure will likely
be the strongest, crossing the upper Great Lakes Saturday before
reaching Quebec by Sunday. Rain chances will continue ahead of this
system Friday night through Saturday. A very warm airmass will
remain in place Friday through Saturday, with highs well into the
40s and possibly 50s, resulting in significant snowmelt. The
combination of rain and snowmelt will bring rises on area creeks and
rivers. So far, ensemble river model guidance suggests crests in
action stage and below flood stage is the most likely scenario.

A cold front will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday
night, with colder air moving back into the region in the wake of
the system by Sunday. It will likely turn windy late Saturday
through Sunday, with winds peaking along and just behind the cold
front. This setup may support headline worthy winds, but there has
been considerable uncertainty with the strength of the surface low
and associated wind fields.

Wrap around moisture will support some light snow showers and it may
be just cold enough for some lake effect snow as well, but so far
this setup looks limited with marginally cold air and a brief window
of favorable conditions before high pressure and warmer air aloft
arrive by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Despite a warm front approaching the region this morning, ceilings
are ranging from MVFR to VFR. Conditions across western New York
will deteriorate to IFR ceilings and visibilities, as widespread
snow spreads from west to east this morning, ahead of an associated
warm front, first reaching the western TAF sites within the next
hour, KROC around 13Z and KART by 15Z. The widespread snow will be a
quick hit lasting only a few hours. After its passage, expect flight
conditions to improve to MVFR/low end VFR.

Ceilings will then deteriorate tonight back towards MVFR/high
terrain IFR ahead of the next clipper system passing across the
Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR CIGS with a chance of a few light rain showers,
and mix of rain and snow showers across the North Country.

Wednesday...IFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers, especially east
of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...Deteoriating to IFR/MVFR in rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak clipper system will the eastern Great Lakes this morning,
however winds are expected to remain light through tonight.

The next system will arrive Tuesday with a brief period of elevated
winds (possible small crafts) as the clipper passes through the
lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ