Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

085
FXUS61 KBUF 141902
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad weak low pressure over over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
this afternoon will gradually shift east before stalling along the
Delmarva Peninsula Thursday, resulting in occasional across the
region this afternoon through Thursday. A few scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon. An occluded front
will then lift northeast across the region early Friday, supporting
the continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure
associated with the occluded front will then reside across the Great
Lakes through the weekend supporting continued chances for showers.
While this all sounds pessimistic, should note that the rest of the
week and weekend will have periods of dry time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A now open negatively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley this
afternoon will drift slowly north across the Great Lakes and
southern New England through Thursday. Associated weak forcing and
moisture will continue to produce a few rounds of showers this
afternoon, lasting through Thursday.

Currently this afternoon, there lies an area of light rain showers
across the Finger Lakes region and into the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Across the west (west of Rochester), just cloudy skies
prevail due to an area of minimal forcing and mid-level moisture. As
the showers across the east slide east this afternoon, the dry
weather across the west will fill in across the remainder of the
forecast area. Dry weather will then last this evening and into the
overnight hours. However, due to a surface low over entering the Mid-
Atlantic region tonight, a few isolated showers are possible across
the western Southern Tier as the next area of moisture advects
northward.

The mid-level trough axis will lie overhead Thursday, sending a
plume of moisture and instability across the eastern Great Lakes.
The morning will start off mainly dry, with the exception of a few
showers to develop across the western Southern Tier. Diurnal
instability and low level forcing from lake breeze boundaries will
support an increase in shower activity Thursday afternoon. The best
coverage of showers will lie from the Southern Tier northeast across
the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes, and across the
southern Tug Hill region. Weak flow and poor lapse rates will keep
the severe risk to a minimum through Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
First upper low exits east across New England, making way for the
next stronger upper low to approach from the upper Midwest, making
it into the central Great Lakes by late Saturday.

Transient ridge crosses the area Thursday night in between these two
systems providing a brief period of dry time, before a potent
shortwave and associated surface trough push into western NY late
Thursday night, pushing across the remainder of the region through
the day Friday with a line of showers and storms along and ahead of
the boundary. While diurnal timing is not favorable for surface-
based convection, there will be plenty of elevated instability to
support/maintain thunderstorm activity. Couple this with 6 km bulk
shear values of 30-40 knots and there will be at least the limited
risk for a few severe storms across western NY late Thursday night
into early Friday morning, with strong gusty winds and some hail the
primary hazards. SPC continues with a Day 2 Marginal Risk across
this portion of our area to account for this. Line of showers and
storms will then continue to move east across the remainder of the
area through the day, however there is more uncertainty wit regard
to severe weather possibilities from the Finger Lakes east as better
shear is projected to move northeast of the area. This will
obviously need to be monitored going forward.

Upper level and associated surface trough exit east late Friday,
with just some lingering widely scattered showers/rumble of thunder
through the first half of Friday night, but also some dry time built
in as well. This will once again be short-lived as a pair of cold
front moves are set to cross the region second half of Friday night
through the day Saturday, bringing a couple more rounds of organized
showers and storms into western and north-central NY. Low confidence
in severe potential at this point, however steepening lapse rates
aloft coupled with bulk shear values once again around 30-40 knots
could support a few stronger storms.

It will be somewhat humid during this time period, with temperatures
remaining above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will feature much cooler and showery weather for the
second half of the weekend as a stacked area of low pressure and
broad surface wave move across the area Saturday night, then exit
east into New England Sunday. General troughing will linger across
the Northeast well into next week, with strong CAA around the system
bringing below normal temperatures for much of the period, before
returning to near normal levels by mid week.

Medium range guidance then diverges with just how fast our area
dries out next week, especially eastern half the area as some
projections show the upper low stalling out over New England, while
other guidance shunt it eastward allowing a large area of high
pressure to build in quicker, with dry conditions for the entire
area by the start of the new work week. That said, do expect all but
the eastern Lake Ontario to dry out Monday/Tuesday, with again our
extreme eastern areas with some uncertainty as to when they will
completely dry out. Ridge will then move east as yet another area of
low pressure approaches, bringing rain chances back into the
forecast by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An open mid-level trough will continue to gradually drift northward
into the Great Lakes tonight through Thursday, which is currently
supporting an area of rain across across the Finger Lakes eastward
(impacting the KART terminal at times) and ample amounts of cloud
cover region wide. Within the cloud cover a range of low end VFR and
high end MVFR CIGS grace the area this afternoon. CIGS will
gradually improve this afternoon and evening to VFR as an area of
weaker instability and limited moisture pivots across the region.

Tonight, lower end MVFR and spotty IFR will be more prevalent across
the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Rain showers activity will increase throughout the day Thursday,
with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening
due to diurnal heating and lake breeze boundaries. As such, expect
brief/local restrictions dropping sites down to MVFR at times.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate easterlies on Lake Ontario will continue to produce choppy
conditions today through this evening, especially on the west half
of the lake, though winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Relatively light winds are expected Thursday and Thursday night.
Winds will become south/southwesterly Friday through Saturday and
increase, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Saturday
due to a cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may continue through Sunday behind the cold
front with moderate westerlies.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock