Binghamton, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXUS61 KBGM 151055
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow
moving upper level low moves through. This will bring periods of
rain showers and chances for thunderstorms today and Friday. A cold
front is then forecast to move through on Saturday with another
round of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler weather with a few
lingering showers is expected to round out the weekend on Sunday.
Partly sunny but cool weather is expected early next week, with
patchy frost possible in the colder valley locations overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

650 AM Update

Minor adjustments to PoPs and Probability of thunderstorms with
the sunrise update based on the latest trends in the CAMs. This
reduced the chance for t`storms to mainly isolated this
afternoon and early evening, with scattered showers still
anticipated. Rest of the forecast remains on track at this time.

415 AM Update

Early morning stratus clouds, patchy fog and drizzle will be around
the region through 9-10 AM. Clouds start to break up some by late
morning and into the afternoon, with partly sunny conditions
expected. However, instability will increase as the broad upper
level trough axis moves overhead this afternoon. MLCAPE should range
from about 400-800 J/Kg by peak heating time late this afternoon, as
surface dew points rise into the upper 50s to low 60s. This will set
the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over
the forecast area. Storm motions will be rather slow, moving off to
the east-northeast at less than 20 mph. This slow storm motion is
due to weak flow through the atmospheric column, with winds less
than 15 kts from the surface all the way up to 300mb (or nearly 30k
feet agl). PWATs will be rather high, around 1.30 inches this
afternoon...so these slow moving storms could produce locally heavy
to excessive downpours, with a marginal risk from WPC for excessive
rainfall and isolated flash flooding across NE PA. Otherwise, today
will feature warmer temperatures with highs reaching into the 70s
areawide; this is around 7-15F degrees warmer than yesterday.

The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly
diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the
overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once
again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at
night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford
counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls
through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild
overnight with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

The weakening line of showers and possible embedded t`storms quickly
moves east across most of the forecast area between 7-11 AM Friday
morning, with less QPF as it approaches the Catskills, Poconos and
Mohawk  Valley regions. After this initial morning convection,
conditions should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies
heading into the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs show another
scattered/broken line of convection developing over the area Friday
afternoon and early evening, with highest probs and coverage from I-
81 east. A few storms could turn strong to severe, as instability
reaches 600-1500 J/Kg and stronger deep layer shear of 30-40 kts
develops...however there is some question on how dry mid level air
and capping could limit convective development. Friday will feature
very warm and humid conditions with highs in the upper 70s to mid-
80s and surface dew points in the low to mid-60s. Will need to
closely monitor the latest model guidance to try an pin down when
dry time will be on Friday with more precision. At this point,
despite high overall PoPs in the forecast, all of Friday does not
look like a washout.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM Update...

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
late evening hours on Friday. Otherwise, most of overnight hours
will be fairly quiet. Temperatures will only fall into the upper 50s
to low 60s. Heading into the early Saturday morning hours, a warm
front will approach from the west and quickly sweep through the
region with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. This
system will exit the region by the early afternoon hours. Despite
the early timing of this system, it will be a low CAPE, high shear
environment, which for this region, is enough for stronger storms to
develop. Following the departure of this front, skies will clear
some and allow for heating during the afternoon. With a cold front
on the heels of the warm front, additional showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. Instability will increase once again and would be
enough to support isolated strong storms in the afternoon. SPC has
the entire region in a marginal risk, which is reasonable given the
set up on Saturday. With the early passing of the warm front,
temperatures will climb into the 70s and 80s.

The frontal system moves out of the region Saturday evening, with
showers and thunderstorms ending with its departure. This dry period
will be brief as a stacked low will bring the next round of showers
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This system will be just north
of the region, so there is some uncertainty on how far south showers
will extend. For now, the best chances are over portions of CNY.
Temperatures fall into the 40s and 50s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
410 AM Update...

An omega block pattern develops Sunday as the aforementioned low
slowly shifts east and a ridge builds over the Midwest with another
low over the Southwest. This pattern will allow a colder airmass to
drop in and northwest flow will continually advect in much cooler
air. All of this will help keep temperatures below normal into early
next week. Rain showers will continue Sunday but drier air begins to
move in on Monday. Some wraparound moisture could support some
lingering showers if the low is slower exit the Northeast but this
forecast continues to favor drier solutions to start the work week.
With a sharp pressure gradient around the low, winds are expected to
be breezy as well. Dry conditions are favored through at least
Tuesday. While the next round of showers is not expected until
Wednesday, there is some uncertainty on the timing and ensemble and
NBM guidance support slight chance PoPs being introduced on Tuesday
night.

As previously mentioned, below average temperatures are expected to
start this forecast period. Monday will be the coldest day as highs
will only be in the 50s for most though some valley locations will
see temps just barely climb into the 60s. Some cool nights are also
to be expected as lows will generally be in the 40s, but 30s will be
possible on Monday night. Some patchy frost may be possible Monday
night and potentially Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM Update

MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alternate CIGs are impacting RME, SYR, ITH and
AVP this morning, and these restrictions are expected to
continue through at least late morning to midday. IFR CIGs are
present at BGM, and should persist until mid to late morning
before gradually lifting.

Heading into this afternoon, CIGs should rise up to MVFR, then
even VFR by mid to late afternoon across most of the forecast
area. There will however be some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms around the region; mainly between about 18z to
23z today. Confidence was highest for a tsra at ELM, ITH and
AVP, where TEMPO groups were added to the TAFS. The latest CAMS
bring the showers and isolated t`storms near BGM later now,
after 22z, so held with a PROB30 group here.

Mainly VFR expected late evening into tonight, but after about
06z stratus clouds redevelop and some lower CIGs could impact
AVP, BGM, ELM and perhaps ITH again.

Winds will light south-southeast less than 10 kts through the
next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated
thunder possible, along with associated restrictions.

Sunday night and Monday... Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM