Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS61 KBUF 022207
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
607 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will gradually drift off
the east coast through midweek, providing a stretch of dry weather
along with a significant warming trend. Midsummer heat will peak on
Wednesday. A cold front will then cross the area Thursday with a few
showers and thunderstorms. The front will stall just south of the
area Thursday night, then a wave of low pressure will move along the
front and bring more rain and scattered thunderstorms to the area
Friday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley this evening will
gradually build to the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday, then just off
the east coast Tuesday night. Strong subsidence and dry air
beneath a building mid/upper level ridge will continue to
support dry weather and mainly clear skies tonight through
Tuesday night.

The one minor exception, a warm frontal segment will move from west
to east across southern Ontario later tonight through Tuesday
morning. Warm advection and isentropic ascent associated with this
feature will bring a modest increase in cloud cover for a few hours,
especially near and east of Lake Ontario overnight through Tuesday
morning. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but most of these
should stay in southern Canada if they materialize.

A layer of smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires will remain over the
area through midweek, but so far HRRR model guidance suggests most
of this will remain elevated well off the surface.

The main story will continue to be the dramatic warm-up following
the chilly weekend. Ongoing warm advection will keep lows tonight
much milder than last night. Highs Tuesday will soar into the low
80s for lower elevations, with a few mid 80s readings possible in
the typical warm spots of the Genesee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as the mid level ridge
axis drifts to the east coast. Surface high pressure will remain
parked off the east coast, allowing for a continuation of
southwesterly flow and warm advection. Highs will reach well into
the 80s in most areas, with some low 90s possible in the typical
warm spots of the Genesee Valley and Central NY. The southwest flow
will keep areas northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario a little
cooler. Dewpoints will start to creep up into the lower 60s, but not
high enough to result in any appreciable heat index above and beyond
the air temperature.

A cold front over the central Great Lakes Wednesday night will begin
to spread increasing clouds into our region overnight. The cold
front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday, bringing the
likelihood of showers and a few thunderstorms. The latest guidance
continues to suggest a morning frontal passage, with unfavorable
diurnal timing for stronger convection.

The cold front is forecast to settle south into northern
Pennsylvania late Thursday and Thursday night. Weak high pressure
will build into southern Ontario and Quebec, with associated drier
air and subsidence allowing most of the rain to end, with the
possible exception of the Southern Tier in closer proximity to the
stalling frontal zone.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday through Saturday, a southern stream shortwave is forecast to
move from the Ohio Valley into NY/PA. The shortwave moving atop the
WSW-ENE oriented frontal zone just to our south will result in one
or several baroclinic waves developing on the front, with the
resulting waves of low pressure moving over or just south of the
eastern Great Lakes. Strong low level frontogenesis and moisture
convergence will be topped by strong upper level divergence in the
right entrance region of a strengthening upper level jet streak over
southern Quebec. The quality and layout of forcing and moisture
suggest the potential for a corridor of heavy rainfall along the
stalled frontal zone, so this will need to be monitored through the
week.

The system will exit east into New England later Saturday or
Saturday night. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes
Sunday through early Monday with a return to dry weather. Another
cold front will move through the Great Lakes later Monday, and may
bring a few showers to the eastern Great Lakes later in the day. It
will be a little cooler and less humid behind the front, but highs
will likely still be in the 70s, near average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions shall persist through the forecast period with a light
southerly flow.

There will be a weak warm front passing through the vicinity of Lake
Ontario region tonight with a modest increase in mid level clouds,
noted most for the KART airfield.

High pressure will bring clear skies tomorrow and into tomorrow
night.

Light southerly flow at the surface will continue tomorrow night
(precluding any fog formation), but aloft our region will be on the
fringe of a belt of stronger flow through the Central Great Lakes,
with possible LLWS at 2K feet for the western TAF sites late Tuesday
night.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday...MVFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest winds in the 10-15 knot range will continue to
produce a light chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this
evening.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will gradually drift to the Mid
Atlantic coast Tuesday, then just offshore of the east coast by
Wednesday. Light winds Tuesday will increase Wednesday as the
pressure gradient increases behind the departing high. This will
bring moderate southwest winds, strongest on the west end of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock