Albany, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

450
FXUS61 KALY 190613
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
213 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring a few showers or thunderstorms
early this morning, mainly well north and west of the Capital
District. Well above normal temperatures in store for today, with a
cold front bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon into the early evening. High pressure builds east
from the Great Lakes on Sunday with fair weather, breezy conditions
and seasonably cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in well above normal temperatures today.

- Medium chances(35-70%) for showers with a low chance(15-25%)
  for thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold
  front.

Discussion:

.UPDATE...As of 118 AM EDT...A much milder night compared to
last night with temps in the 50s and even 60s. A few 40s are
occurring in the sheltered valleys of the higher terrain in the
Helderbergs and eastern Catskills where the winds have
decoupled. For example, in the NYS Mesonet Claryville is 41F and
Medusa is 44F. Cobleskill and Herkimer are each 65F this hour.
A warm front continues to drift north of the region with a few
showers and an isolated rumble of thunder grazing the
south/southwest Adirondacks especially north of Route 28. The
thunder has not been impressive despite the steep mid level
lapse rates and weak elevated instability. We kept isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for
locations well northwest of the Capital Region. We increased
the cloud cover some and have lows mainly in the 50s with some
40s in the sheltered valleys.

Previous near term...

By Sat afternoon, our area will be in a warm sector ahead of an
cold front approaching from the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures
will get quite warm(70s to lower 80s) ahead of the cold front
with a gusty SW breeze around 20-30 mph developing during the
afternoon. NBM probs for highs > 75F are 70-100% in lower
elevations from around the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys south.
Coverage of P.M. showers/T-storms is dependent on how much
moisture can pool ahead of the cold front. Guidance varies with
dewpoint forecast, downsloping SW winds off the Helderbergs and
Catskills may limit dewpoints somewhat in the Hudson Valley. So
will continue to mention mainly scattered coverage of showers
with a slight chance for thunder as SBCAPE expected to be in the
300-700 J/Kg range. Severe storms are not anticipated due to
limited instability, although a few stronger winds gusts cannot
be ruled out with a decent westerly jet of 45-50 kt at 850 mb.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Seasonably cool, dry and breezy Sunday.

Discussion:

A few showers/T-storms may linger into early Sat evening as the
aforementioned cold front continues to move through. However,
as daytime heating is lost along with fairly limited forcing,
chances will gradually diminish. The cold front will push
south/east of the entire area by late evening, with subsidence
and cold advection commencing overnight. Temperatures will fall
to the lower 30s in the Adirondacks to well 40s well south of
Albany by early Sun morning.

Sun looks dry with slightly below normal temperatures as high
pressure builds east across the Great Lakes and a confluent
westerly flow aloft. With the high centered to our north/west
through the day, there will be a persistent NW breeze gusting
20-30 mph. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will build in
Sun night, providing dry/cool conditions. Lows look to be
slightly below normal ranging from upper 20s in the mountains to
upper 30s in the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Shower chances increase late Monday into Monday night with a
  20-40% chance of at least 0.25" rainfall north of the Capital
  Region.

Discussion:

High pressure shifts east off the coast on Mon. Dry conditions
look to persist through much of the day now, with chances for
showers increasing from west to east late Mon afternoon into Mon
night as a frontal system approaches from the west. The primary
cyclone is forecast to track from the upper Great Lakes into SE
Canada Mon night into Tue. The system`s occluded front moves
through early Tue with showers gradually ending. Will continue
to mention mainly likely PoPs, although rainfall amounts look
light with around 0.10- 0.25". Temperatures look to be slightly
above normal Mon into Tue.

Surface high pressure builds in Tue night into Wed with flat
zonal flow aloft, resulting in fair conditions with slightly
above normal temperatures. This pattern may hold Thu into Fri,
but guidance diverges with regards to a potential system
approaching. Will mention slight to low chance PoPs at this time
until guidance comes into better agreement. Temperatures are
expected be above normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this morning ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Such
conditions are anticipated to persist through much of the 06z
cycle, though some light showers or thunderstorms (KALB) could
force near to MVFR ceilings later this afternoon. Some initial
low level wind shear will gradually erode as the LLJ decreases
later this morning. Winds will remain breezy, becoming somewhat
gusty by this afternoon with sustained speeds ranging from 10 to
nearly 20 kt with gusts up to 20-30 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night to Wed: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be warmer with high temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 80s in valley areas, with a west-southwest wind
gusting 20-30 mph at times. However, low level moisture will
also be increasing with minimum RH values of 40-50% expected and
scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting the region.

Sunday looks cooler, but also much drier with minimum RH values
of 25-35% and northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph, so there is an
increased threat of fire spread and conditions will need to be
monitored.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/Wasula