Albany, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS61 KALY 180545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1245 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase early this morning, with snow and
rain showers developing by the afternoon ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Low pressure will develop along the front
and track northeast Sunday into Sunday night, bringing snow to the
area, some of which may be moderate to heavy for portions of the
Capital Region south and east. Bitterly cold air then overspreads
the region for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE as of 1245 am EST...High pressure continues to drift
off the East Coast. Mid and high clouds are increasing over
portions of the region north and west of the mid Hudson valley
and southwest New England. South to southeast winds of 5-10 mph
are increasing. Low and mid level warm advection continues occur
across the forecast area, as we are seeing temps steady or
slightly rise into the mid 20s to lower 30s across the region.
The NYS Mesonet obs shows steady temps in the lower 30s in the
Hudson River Valley near the Capital Region. Retooled the sky
cover and adjustment temps with dry conditions and above
seasonal min temps expected with lows in the 20s though some
upper teens in the sheltered valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing potential for plowable snowfall for the northern
  Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT and points south
  and east, where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.

- Snow showers possibly mixed with rain in some valleys will
  bring scattered mainly light accumulations Saturday.

Discussion:

Cold front slowly approaches from the west Saturday, bringing
snow showers which could mix with/change to plain rain in some
valley areas from Albany south and east in the afternoon. Most
snowfall amounts should be a coating to an inch, however some
orographic enhancement could lead to amounts as high as 2-4"
across portions of central/northern Herkimer/southwest Hamilton
Counties, with perhaps 1-3" across portions of Washington
County. Gusty south winds will be possible Saturday morning
through early afternoon, especially within north/south oriented
valleys where gusts up to 25-35 mph will be possible. Max temps
should reach the mid/upper 30s in most valleys, and lower/mid
30s across higher elevations.

Showers of rain/snow should gradually taper off from west to
east Saturday evening. However, behind the passing cold front, a
period of snow showers could lead to additional minor
accumulations late Saturday night across portions of SW VT and
the Taconics/Berkshires within a developing west/northwest flow.
Lows mainly in the 20s, except teens across SW Adirondacks.

Low pressure is expected to develop near the North Carolina
coast Saturday night and then track northeast Sunday into Sunday
night. Most guidance has trended farther north/west with the
expected track of the low. In addition, strong mid level
frontogenesis is expected to occur well north and west of the
actual surface low, and this mid level forcing should produce
bands of moderate to locally heavy snowfall, which at this time
appears to be for areas across the Capital Region into southern
VT and points south and east. Within these areas, there could be
amounts of 7 inches or greater, although there is still some
uncertainty regarding the overall placement of these heavier
bands and resulting accumulations/impacts. Snowfall may be a bit
wetter in consistency closer to I-84, then somewhat drier
closer to the Capital Region.

Temperatures Sunday should reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, with
temps likely falling in the afternoon once any snow develops.
Temperatures should continue dropping into the single digits and
teens Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Bitterly cold temperatures are expected Monday through
  Wednesday along with lake effect snow for the western
  Adirondacks

Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend system, arctic air will begin to build
into the region with longwave troughing overhead. 850 hPa
temperatures lower to -20 to -25C with 500 hPa temperatures down to -
35 to -40C (between 1 and 2 standard deviations below normal). This
will result in high temperatures mostly in the single digits and
teens each day Monday through Wednesday (except lower 20s across the
mid-Hudson Valley on Monday). Lows most nights will fall to near or
below zero. While it won`t be too windy, an occasional 5 to 15 mph
wind will make it feel colder than the actual air temperature. The
coldest wind chill values (feels-like temperatures) will occur
overnight into the early morning hours with values generally between
0 and 10 below in the valleys and 10 to 20 below zero across the
higher elevations. These values could result in eventual issuances
of Cold Weather Advisories mainly for the higher elevations. Feels
like temperatures will not improve much during the day with most of
the day still feeling like the single digits above zero in the
valleys and negative single digits in the higher elevations.

The cold air over the open waters of the Great Lakes will also
result in a band of lake-effect snow Monday through Wednesday which,
with a general west to west-southwesterly flow, should mostly orient
the band across the western Adirondacks especially along and north
of Route 28 where some moderate snow accumulations will be possible.
Elsewhere, mainly dry weather is expected but cannot rule out some
light snow showers or flurries at times.

The core of the cold departs the area by the end of the week with
temperatures gradually rebounding closer to normal values. Another
shortwave may cross the region by the end of the week bringing some
additional snow showers or flurries but confidence on this system
remains low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites until
this afternoon and evening when chances of a mix of rain and snow
showers moves through quickly between 18z and 00z. Conditions should
become a mix of VFR/MVFR during onset of shower activity, becoming a
mix of MVFR/IFR after 00z into the end of the TAF period. Kept
mention of the shower activity in PROB30 groups as shower activity
should be a mix of rain and snow for KPSF, KGFL, and KALB, and plain
rain at KPOU. Winds remain light and variable to start the TAF
period, increasing this morning after 12z to 10 and 15 knots with
gusts periodically between 15 and 25 knots through this afternoon.
After 00z, winds decrease to light and variable through the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FZRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day to Wednesday: No Operational Impact.
NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Webb