Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS64 KEPZ 181007
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
307 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

 - Mild and dry, but continued Breezy to windy. Patchy blowing
   dust near source regions. Peak gusts around 40 miles per hour.

 - Cold front pushed in tonight. Cooler weather returns Sunday
   through Friday, with sub-freezing mornings area wide, and below
   normal afternoon high temperatures.

 - Looking dry through the weekend and next week. There is a small
   chance of light snow over the Sacramento mountains Monday night
   through Tuesday morning, with accumulations less than an inch.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

One more day of seasonal temperatures across the Borderland before
we see a week of cooler than normal temperatures behind two strong
cold fronts. Today we continue breezy to windy as a second upper
trough drops over the region from the NW. It is another dry
system, with no moisture or few to no clouds expected. Winds will
continue westerly and at least be breezy. However, due to lesser
surface gradient, they should average about 5-10 mph less than
yesterday`s windy conditions. There is still some potential for
blowing dust, but the trajectory should keep it minor over our
most populated locales. Expect some local dust effects, near
source region, and some widespread hazy skies possible in the mid
and late afternoons, but no big impacts expected. This afternoon`s
max temperatures will be very near yesterday`s with highs near the
seasonal average today.

Tonight we welcome, whether we want to or not, the next stretch of
cooler weather, which looks to persist through next Friday. As
today`s upper trough exits tonight, a cold front will push in
from the north and northeast. This front is pushed by a 1053mb
high sagging S out of western Canada, with arctic air riding south
through the Rockies and the Plains states. Tonight we will see
cooler air move in with gusty and breezy NE winds. Wind chills
over the SACs, Otero, and Hudspeth county will be in the 5-10F
range. Thus we will issue a Cold Weather Advisory for those areas.
Starting Sunday our temperatures will run below seasonal
normals, through Friday of next week. Sunday`s cool down will be a
noticeable, but moderate, cool down of 10-12 degrees across the
region with high averaging about 10 degrees below normals. A
second cold front will push in Monday night to bring slightly
cooler air for Tuesday. The overnights and mornings will be quite
chilly, starting tonight, with all areas below freezing. Monday
and Tuesday nights (Tuesday and Wednesday mornings) will be the
coldest. Monday night/Tuesday morning will also have stronger NE
winds with the FROPA, to slam apparent temps/wind chill quite
low...so a Cold Weather Advisory is likely for this time period.
For the most part the cold fronts and associated trough passages
aloft, are dry for our region. The one exception may be a brief
period of light snow over the Sacramento mountains Monday night
into Tuesday morning. The snow totals will be light, with an inch
on the high side of current possibilities.

Next weekend we will see some modification of the airmass, with a
warming back to seasonal and above temperatures. The latest GFS
shows another cooler surge for the following Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through at least the late morning
hours. Breezy west winds will continue tonight with speeds
generally 12-17G20-27KT. LLWS expected at KELP overnight tonight
with some potential at the remaining terminals. Skies remain clear
overnight and throughout the TAF period. BLDU possible again
tomorrow afternoon with greatest confidence in seeing at least
hazy skies will be KELP, KLRU, and KDMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

Another ELEVATED fire weather day today, with continued breezy and
gusty west winds, and low relative humidity as another upper-level
trough swings across the region, dropping in from the NW. Winds
will be a bit reduced from yesterday, do to lighter surface
pressure gradients, but speeds still expected in the 20-30 mph
range for many areas, especially the higher terrain. MinRH will
again fall into the teens across all the lowlands, with mountain
areas in the 20-30 percent range. The system is very dry, with few
to no clouds expected.

Tonight the first of two strong cold fronts pushes in from the N
and NE. This is arctic air, with colder air from the arctic, out
of Western Canada. Sunday through next Friday, daily temperatures
will be below mid-January normals. Nights and morning will be
cold, and below freezing. Afternoon highs will average about 10
degrees colder than normal. The second cold front pushes in Monday
night, with cooler conditions for Tuesday. These fronts, and
associated upper trough are quite dry. Only the Sacramento
mountains have any real chance at any precipitation, with slight
chances for light snow Monday night into Tuesday Morning. Some of
the northern Gila region may also see a bit of light snow.
Otherwise, dry for all areas, with marginal night time RH recover,
and low MinRH each afternoon, and no precipitation. There will be
some breezy and gusty NE to E winds with the frontal passages
tonight and again Monday night, otherwise no strong winds expected
after today`s breezy/windy conditions.

Very good and excellent ventilation will fall tomorrow, through
the week, with lighter winds aloft and cooler surface temperatures
reducing both transport winds, and mixing depth.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  28  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  18  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  23  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  16  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               33   8  26  15 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  21  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              49  19  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   58  20  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  19  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  27  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                59  20  42  17 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  20  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               52  19  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   61  24  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             57  24  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  25  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  19  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    61  19  48  20 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  24  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                56  19  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47   9  40  19 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                43   9  36  16 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 44   7  34  13 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  51   9  43  13 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                57  18  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                56  16  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  16  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   52  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    59   6  53   8 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  18  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  19  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   59  19  54  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  19  50  19 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  22  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  25  52  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Sunday for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern
     Hudspeth Highlands.

NM...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Sunday for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird