Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXUS65 KABQ 272114
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 PM MDT Tue May 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 PM MDT Tue May 27 2025

- Daily rounds of showers and storms will favor eastern New Mexico
  today through Thursday, with coverage expanding to the whole
  area Friday through the weekend. A few storms in the eastern
  plains may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Dry storms with little to no rainfall and erratic downburst
  winds will develop each afternoon through Thursday over the
  Continental Divide and Rio Grande Valley. These storms have the
  potential to start new fires.

- There is a low risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars
  and in eastern New Mexico each afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 27 2025

High-based cumulus have developed over most of the mountain ranges
around central and northern New Mexico this afternoon, although the
combination of a mid-level inversion (from the shortwave ridge
overhead) and dry air entrainment have prevented more than a
couple of storms from developing thus far. The most unstable
conditions are present in southeastern New Mexico where there is
the best chance for severe weather today. Storms will slowly move
off the Sacramento mtns into the plains, likely intensifying as
they attempt to organize. 0-6km bulk shear will be 25kts at best
though so the likelihood of a long-lived supercell is quite low.
While slow storm motions are a concern for burn scar flash
flooding, satellite suggests PWATs are only around 0.4" over the
HPCC burn scar which will not allow for very efficient rainfall
rates. Nonetheless, soils are saturated from the rainfall the past
couple of days, so it won`t take as much rain to produce flash
flooding. A dry storm or two cannot be ruled out over the western
high terrain, but the lack of instability should prevent
widespread storm development. Storms will wind down after sunset
in most areas, although some CAMs are trying to keep activity
around in Chaves/Roosevelt counties through around Midnight.
Return flow could once again foster the development of low clouds
in the eastern plains, but confidence is low.

The shortwave ridge will remain overhead tomorrow, once again
surpressing the overall coverage of convection. The far northeast
plains will be the area to watch as a backdoor front provides more
moisture and the low-level forcing to get storms off the ground. SPC
has trimmed back the Slight risk of severe storms tomorrow, with
only the far northeast and far southeast plains still in it. Steep
mid-level lapse rates suggests the potential for large hail in the
southeast, but once again the lack of wind shear will be the
limiting factor for supercell development. While non-zero, the
risk of burn scar flash flooding is quite low tomorrow afternoon
given how far east the dryline is expected to be and therefore how
inefficient rainfall will be. The backdoor front will surge
through the gaps of the central mountain chain Wednesday night,
creating gusty east winds in the typical favored locations in
Albuquerque and Santa Fe late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 27 2025

The stormy weather pattern is expected to continue into Thursday as
a closed Pacific low moves into Baja California. This will begin to
advect mid-level moisture in from the south. The Low will remain
near-stationary through the weekend, with more ample low-level
moisture coming in late Saturday into Sunday as the remnants of a
Pacific tropical system move northward into the region. This will
surge PWATs to 150 to as much as 250% as normal in central and
western New Mexico where afternoon showers and storms will be wetter
than they been early to mid-week. There could still be a few dry
storms in the far southwest mountains Friday afternoon before deeper
moisture arrives, but the coverage will be lower than previous days.
The EPS and GEFS have slightly different trajectories for this
moisture plume, which is dependent on the exact location/strength on
the Baja Low. Regardless, confidence is moderate to high that there
will be an uptick in the coverage of precipitation (and therefore
burn scar flash flood risk) Friday through the weekend. The
aformentioned Baja Low will quickly eject inland on Sunday/Monday
and the forcing it provides will lead to an uptick in storm
coverage. The good news is that storm motion will be faster,
resulting in a lower residence time over burn scars. The bad news is
that it will increase the risk of severe weather, with the potential
for at least strong storms as far west as the Rio Grande Valley.
Drier air pushes in from the west behind this shortwave, keeping
convective activity confined to the north and east on Monday and
Tuesday. Guidance is in good agreement that a broad longwave trough
will develop over The Great Basin mid-week, however the speed at
which it digs into the desert southwest is very uncertain. Clusters
are split 50/50 on a faster vs slower moving solution. The faster
solution would bring more wind mid to late week, potentially
increasing fire weather concerns as early as mid-week. The slower
solution keeps the dry slot to the north and would likely delay
fire concerns until late week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025

High based cumulus has begun to develop over the mountains late
this morning, which will eventually become isolated showers and
storms by the afternoon. Storms today will favor the high terrain
of western NM and the central mountain chain, with a storm or two
drifting into the eastern plains by the mid to late afternoon. The
best chance for a severe storm will be in the southeast plains,
with gusty outflow winds the main concern with any convection in
western NM. High clouds from the afternoon`s convection will
continue through most of the night, before eventually clearing
out by late tomorrow morning. There is a low chance (10-20%) of
MVFR cigs in the eastern plains, including at KTCC, but confidence
was not high enough to include in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas along and east of the central mountain chain will have
isolated to scattered storms each of the next several days. Many
storms will contain small hail and produce gusty winds, however a
storm or two in the far northeast and southeast plains could produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Sub-10% afternoon minimum
humidity is expected each of the next few days along and west of the
Rio Grande Valley. Mountainous areas will likely see a few virga
showers and dry storms each afternoon, which could spark new fires
given that ERCs are above the 97th percentile in the Rio Grande
Valley and the southwest mountains. Moisture finally increases
across the west Friday and particularly this weekend, increasing the
likelihood of wetting rainfall. Storm coverage looks to peak on
Sunday as a shortwave moves across the state. A drying trend is
likely, at least for western and central NM, early to mid-next week
as a broad longwave trough develops over The Great Basin. Winds will
be on the uptrend during this timeframe as well, potentially
bringing the return of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
(depending on fuel status after the expected rainfall).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  87  50  88 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  37  82  38  83 /  10  20   0  20
Cuba............................  44  81  46  81 /   5  10   5  10
Gallup..........................  38  84  40  85 /   5   5   0   5
El Morro........................  43  80  46  80 /  20  10   0  10
Grants..........................  40  84  42  84 /  10  10   0  10
Quemado.........................  45  82  46  83 /  20   5   0  10
Magdalena.......................  52  81  53  83 /   5  10   0  20
Datil...........................  46  80  48  82 /  10  10   0  10
Reserve.........................  40  88  43  89 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  48  92  49  93 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  37  76  38  76 /  20  30   5  30
Los Alamos......................  50  77  52  78 /   5  20   5  20
Pecos...........................  45  77  47  76 /  10  20  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  41  74  43  75 /  20  30  10  40
Red River.......................  35  65  37  65 /  30  40  20  50
Angel Fire......................  31  71  34  70 /  30  40  10  50
Taos............................  38  78  40  78 /  10  20  10  40
Mora............................  39  75  42  72 /   5  30  10  40
Espanola........................  47  84  49  85 /   5  20   5  20
Santa Fe........................  49  78  51  79 /   5  20  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  48  82  49  83 /   5  20   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  86  58  86 /   5  10   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  87  55  88 /   5  10   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  90  54  91 /   5  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  88  56  88 /   5  10   5  10
Belen...........................  49  90  50  91 /   5  20   0  10
Bernalillo......................  51  89  54  89 /   5  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  48  90  50  90 /   5  10   5  10
Corrales........................  53  90  55  90 /   5  10   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  50  90  51  90 /   5  10   0  10
Placitas........................  53  84  56  85 /   5  10   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  54  88  56  88 /   5  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  56  92  56  93 /  10  20   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  80  50  80 /   5  20   5  20
Tijeras.........................  49  82  51  82 /   5  10   5  20
Edgewood........................  43  82  47  82 /   5  10   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  83  44  83 /   5  10   5  20
Clines Corners..................  44  77  46  74 /   5  20   5  20
Mountainair.....................  46  82  47  83 /  10  20   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  46  81  47  83 /  10  20   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  54  84  54  87 /  10  20   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  47  77  50  78 /  10  30   5  30
Capulin.........................  42  74  42  62 /  30  50  40  40
Raton...........................  42  79  44  71 /  20  40  20  40
Springer........................  43  80  45  72 /  20  30  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  42  78  45  71 /  10  30  10  30
Clayton.........................  49  79  47  66 /  10  40  50  20
Roy.............................  47  77  47  68 /  10  30  20  20
Conchas.........................  52  85  52  75 /  10  20  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  50  82  51  75 /   5  20   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  53  83  52  70 /  10  20  20  10
Clovis..........................  54  83  54  74 /  10  20  20  10
Portales........................  53  83  53  78 /  10  30  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  53  84  53  80 /  10  20  10  10
Roswell.........................  60  88  59  89 /  20  20   5  20
Picacho.........................  53  83  52  83 /  20  30   5  20
Elk.............................  49  83  50  84 /  30  30   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16