Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

234
FXUS64 KEPZ 141711
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1111 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

 - Today will be the region`s best chance to see widespread
   showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Some
   storms will be severe with hail, gusty winds and heavy rain.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms again Monday.

 - Relief from the heat through Monday, but triple digit
   temperatures will return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Active day still looks on schedule. Weak backdoor cool front
pushed through much of the CWA; subtle satellite features show it
out near the Cont Divide at this time where it should become
mostly stationary and mix out. Models shows some minor surface
convergence with it. Feature should also help keep dewpoints in
the upper 40s west and 50s east. Aloft sub-tropical high remains
in place from the Gulf of America to northern Mexico. Short-wave,
possibly near the Four Corners swings down in the northwest flow
along the north margins of the sub-tropical high later today. Also
250mb sub-tropical jet across northern Mexico will have its RRQ
over our area this afternoon. Add in above normal moisture and all
these ingredients add up to scattered thunderstorms for our area.
Diurnal pattern should hold again, with mountain storms
developing by noon, and spreading down to the lowlands after
around 2pm. Several models show somewhat organized line dropping
down to Las Cruces/El Paso area after 5pm, likely associated with
the short-wave. With CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg, and maybe as high as
2000 J/kg late afternoon in the east, along with good speed shear,
should help produce some strong to severe storms. Large hail
(1.0-1.5 inches) is possible along with wind gusts of 45-60 mph.
With PWs approaching 150-200% of normal today, some heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is also possible. All these threats are highest
from a line from Silver City-Deming and east.

Monday will see some drying as the northwest flow aloft pulls in
slightly drier air. PWs drop to .75-1.00 inches and dewpoints
begin dropping into the 40s northwest. Hence POPs lower on Monday
though all areas still will see a chance of storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...main long wave trough over eastern US
splits the sub-tropical ridge in two, with our area under the east
Pacific high and drier air. Thus other than a few mountain and NM
Bootheel storms each afternoon, little or no chance for rain most
other areas. Heat will be the main story, with lowland high temps
rising back to around 100-105 each day.

Friday through Sunday...sub-tropical ridge will reform over the
Gulf of America, Texas, and New Mexico. Low/mid level flow turns
south/southeast Friday and Saturday with moisture returning along
with a chance of thunderstorms. Next Pacific trough with drier
northwest flow is able to impinge into the ridge Sunday and
should scour out most moisture, and with it, any chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

SCT100 SCT-BKN250 with scattered BKN070CB 4-6SM -TSRA developing
shortly over the mountains. These storms then spreading to the
lowlands after 20Z. Storms mostly over by 06Z west of the RG
Valley, but persisting into Monday morning from the RG Valley
east. Some of these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts
of 45-55 knots. Non-thunderstorm winds east/southeast 10-15 knots
east of the Cont Divide, and west 10-15 knots to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Not much in the way of fire weather concerns. High min RHs and
scattered thunderstorms expected today and Monday. Min RHs do
lower to near critical Tue-Thu for the lowlands as high temps
creep back up above normal, so elevated conditions possible again
by mid week.

Min RH: Lowlands...20% west-35% east today and Monday, lowering
to 10-15% Tuesday through Thursday. Gila/Black Range...20-30%
today and Monday, lowering to 10-20% Tuesday through Thursday.
Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...40-50% today and Monday, lowering to
15-25% Tuesday through Thursday. Vent rates fair-good today and
Monday, improving to very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  93  72  99 /  60  20  30   0
Sierra Blanca            62  87  62  93 /  40  20  30   0
Las Cruces               64  91  63  97 /  60  30  20   0
Alamogordo               65  90  66  97 /  50  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               48  70  49  75 /  50  30  20  10
Truth or Consequences    67  90  66  97 /  60  40  10   0
Silver City              60  89  60  92 /  30  30  20   0
Deming                   64  94  64  99 /  30  20  20   0
Lordsburg                66  96  66  98 /  10  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       70  91  70  97 /  60  20  30   0
Dell City                63  89  63  95 /  30  30  30   0
Fort Hancock             68  94  69  99 /  60  20  30   0
Loma Linda               63  85  64  90 /  50  30  30   0
Fabens                   67  94  68  99 /  50  20  20   0
Santa Teresa             66  90  65  96 /  50  20  30   0
White Sands HQ           71  91  71  97 /  60  20  20   0
Jornada Range            62  90  63  97 /  60  30  10   0
Hatch                    65  92  64  99 /  50  50  10   0
Columbus                 69  95  69  99 /  50  20  30   0
Orogrande                61  89  63  95 /  50  20  20   0
Mayhill                  53  79  55  86 /  50  60  20  20
Mescalero                52  80  54  86 /  40  50  20   0
Timberon                 50  76  51  82 /  50  40  30  10
Winston                  55  84  56  90 /  30  40  10   0
Hillsboro                63  88  63  94 /  30  50  10  10
Spaceport                59  89  60  96 /  50  40  10   0
Lake Roberts             54  89  54  93 /  20  50  20   0
Hurley                   61  91  61  95 /  30  30  20   0
Cliff                    60  95  60  98 /  10  30  10   0
Mule Creek               54  91  55  94 /  10  30  10  10
Faywood                  62  89  62  94 /  30  50  20   0
Animas                   65  95  65  97 /  20  10  10   0
Hachita                  64  95  64  98 /  30  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           65  94  64  96 /  40  20  20  10
Cloverdale               63  89  61  91 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner