Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

857
FXUS64 KEPZ 252326
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
526 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

 - Low elevation desert temperatures will periodically reach 100
   to 105, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the Gila
   wilderness and Sacramento mountains, and to a lesser extent the
   boot heel of NM. Storms will be slow-moving and capable of
   locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

High pressure aloft will remain entrenched over much of the southern
Rockies and southern deserts through the next several days with only
minor fluctuations in strength and orientation. Currently, PWATs
remain between 1.0 and 1.3 inch over much of the forecast area, and
through early to middle of next week the orientation of the high
will keep monsoon moisture favoring Sonora into southern AZ with
modified and more subdued PWATs into NM and far west TX. Sluggish
storm motions will be common, increasing the locally heavy rainfall
threat through at least early next week.

Today`s storms will be mostly concentrated over the Sacramento
mountains and Gila wilderness through mid afternoon before
propagating into nearby valleys with storms struggling to
initiate farther south near the borderland. The Flood Watch for
the Sacramento`s will end at 6 PM MDT when the heavy rainfall
threat will abate there.

Into Sunday, high resolution models indicate the Gila and
Sacramento`s observing convective initiation again, while storms
also develop farther southwest over the boot heel and along the
Sonora- Chihuahua border. Consequently, isolated to scattered
storms have been built into the Sunday afternoon forecast for much
of the western half of the forecast area with most of far west TX
staying void of storms. Temperatures will follow close to
persistence with lots of upper 90`s and low 100`s in the lower
elevation deserts.

Changes into Monday are subtle with a slight increase in storm
coverage over western areas where cells will continue to slowly
drift westward. Temperatures will gain a degree or two of warming,
especially along the Rio Grande.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high Tuesday
onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to-day
changes with sensible weather elements. POPs mimic climatology
for late July, typically the most active thunderstorm period, with
the Gila, NM boot heel, and Sacramento`s staying the favored
areas for rainfall. Temperatures in the Rio Grande will escalate
to 100 to 105 in many locales, increasing heat impacts next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VMC expected through the forecast period. Lingering FEW-SCT090
with isolated SHRA over the mountains should not affect local
terminals overnight. Quiet conditions tonight with skies SCT-
BKN250 and surface winds 350-040 AOB 5KT. Isolated TSRA coverage
tomorrow with gusty winds possible across S NM between 21-03Z. No
mention in TAFs yet due to low confidence in direct impacts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through
the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness
and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with
more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower
deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower
elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the
afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm
outflows on localized scales for brief time frames.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80 103  79 104 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            70  97  71  99 /   0  10  10   0
Las Cruces               73 100  73 101 /  10  10  20   0
Alamogordo               75  99  76 102 /  10  20   0  10
Cloudcroft               56  75  56  77 /  20  40  10  20
Truth or Consequences    75 100  74 101 /  40  10  10   0
Silver City              67  92  66  92 /  30  40  20  40
Deming                   74 102  72 102 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                73  99  72  98 /  30  10  30  10
West El Paso Metro       81 102  80 102 /   0   0  20   0
Dell City                74 101  74 103 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             78 104  78 105 /   0  10  10   0
Loma Linda               72  95  72  96 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                   78 103  78 104 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             77 100  76 101 /  10   0  20   0
White Sands HQ           80 101  80 102 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            76 100  76 102 /  10  10  10   0
Hatch                    75 103  74 104 /  30  10  10   0
Columbus                 78 103  77 102 /  10  10  10   0
Orogrande                75  99  74 101 /  10  10  10   0
Mayhill                  61  87  61  89 /  10  30  10  20
Mescalero                60  87  61  89 /  20  30  10  20
Timberon                 59  85  59  87 /  10  30  10  20
Winston                  64  90  63  92 /  40  50  10  30
Hillsboro                72  97  71  98 /  50  30  10  10
Spaceport                73 100  72 101 /  30  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             62  93  61  93 /  40  50  20  60
Hurley                   68  96  67  96 /  30  30  20  30
Cliff                    69  98  68  98 /  40  30  20  30
Mule Creek               67  94  66  94 /  40  30  20  30
Faywood                  70  95  68  95 /  30  30  20  20
Animas                   73  99  71  97 /  20  20  30  10
Hachita                  72  99  70  98 /  10  20  30  10
Antelope Wells           71  98  70  96 /  10  20  30  20
Cloverdale               67  92  66  90 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99