Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS64 KEPZ 282332
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
432 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 428 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Warmer than average temperatures continue Saturday with dry
   and pleasant conditions.

 - A cold front will push in Sunday morning, bringing easterly
breeziness that morning and temperatures becoming below normal.

 - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and light afternoon breezes
   through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Generally benign weather will persist through Saturday as a low-
intensity trough swings through the Great Basin. A regime of quasi-
zonal flow aloft will prevail, leading to warm and dry conditions
across the Borderland. Temperatures will peak today, ticking down
slightly on Saturday as lower pressure heights start to dig into the
Desert Southwest. The aforementioned Great Basin trough will slide
into the Midwest, kicking off a backdoor cold front down the Great
Plains. The front will surge southward and westward Saturday evening
and into the overnight hours. Sunday`s high temperatures will see a
decent reduction as a result, with locales out east seeing around
10F to 15F of cooling compared to Saturday. Areas west of the
mountains won`t see quite as dramatic of a decrease, but will
still be party to around 3F to 9F of cooling. Hot on the heels of
the front, another system will attempt to swing into the Rockies
Sunday night. Models now have this system side-swiping
northern/central NM, keeping the best chances of precip localized
beyond the Borderland. At most, the system will bring us a slight
increase in westerly winds Monday afternoon. Another weak
shortwave will keep temperatures moderated on Tuesday, keeping
them near normal for early December.

Temperatures will attempt to rebound a degree or two on Wednesday
but their ambition will be short lived. A broad, positively
tilted trough begins its tour of the Intermountain West on Tuesday
night, setting its sights on NM late in the day on Wednesday.
Run-to-run consistency on this feature remains lackluster, but a
few models hint at the possibility of light precip, particularly
out west. As such, did not deviate from the NBM at this juncture.
The trough`s ejection from the Desert Southwest is drawn out,
lasting into Friday as it digs further toward the Borderland.
Should the solution pan out, cooler temperatures would be in store
to finish out the work week, along with a chance for precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecst period. Winds will
subside to begin the period, becoming AOB 8kts from W-SW. Light
winds continue through tomorrow. Mainly SKC expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Dry conditions with generally light southwesterly to westerly
winds expected through Saturday. A trough navigating into the
Midwest will kick off a backdoor front Saturday evening through
the overnight hours, resulting in an easterly wind shift across
most zones on Sunday. Moisture will increase with the front, with
minRH around 10 to 20 percent higher as compared to Saturday`s
readings. Another system will side-swipe northern and central New
Mexico Sunday night into Monday, but the Borderland will miss out
on precipitation chances. Instead, a slight increase in westerly
and southwesterly winds can be expected Monday afternoon, though
magnitudes will stay well below elevated or critical thresholds.
Another storm system will attempt to dip into the Borderland
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing low-end precipitation
chances Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Vent rates will
trend poor to fair, with some improvement on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  40  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  34  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               65  34  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               47  23  41  29 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    64  35  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              60  35  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   69  34  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64  35  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  42  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                70  30  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  37  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  33  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70  38  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             67  38  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  39  58  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65  30  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    68  32  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  61  22  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                58  25  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 57  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  61  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                65  35  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                65  31  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             62  27  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   63  32  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    66  29  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  28  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  36  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   67  35  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  66  33  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           68  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               61  40  61  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson