Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

620
FXUS64 KEPZ 201127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Thunderstorm coverage will increase on Sunday as instability
   recovers across the area. Thunderstorm coverage will be
   variable with low to mid-end monsoon conditions early next
   week.

 - Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Sunday, but will
   trend closer to normal Monday and Tuesday.

 - A drying trend looks to be lurking late in the week and into
   the weekend, and this will be accompanied by warming
   temperatures again, with low 100s possible in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows the subtropical
ridge centered south of the Florida panhandle, with a weak upper
level inverted trough barely noticeable on satellite imagery, with
just a weak circulation at 500mb over north Texas. A more obvious
TUTT can be seen off the northwestern Gulf coast, sharply
noticeable in 200mb streamline patterns. The well-defined TUTT
that crossed through Mexico over the past few days is now
weakening over the Baja Peninsula, with strongly diffluent flow to
its north helping maintain a large MCS over central Sonora, where
storms are trying to make a run for the coast north of Guaymas.

With Friday night`s convection over SW New Mexico that backed into
El Paso, and subsequent widespread light rain much of the night,
most of our area was stabilized today, with a predictable sharp
downturn in convection coverage, except on the fringes of the CWA,
most notably over parts of the Black Range. Two Flood Advisories
and a Dust Advisory is the definition of a pretty quiet shift
this summer.

Right now, some tiny cells are holding on over the Bootheel and in
western Luna County. Some spotty convection over the Casas Grandes
valley is drifting NW, and a renegade cluster of storms is
approaching Samalayuca to our south. Several of the 00Z HREF
members suggest the NW Chihuahua activity will drift up towards
the Bootheel through the night, and a couple members suggest the
isolated activity south of El Paso could flirt with EP and the
Lower Valley. I held onto scattered PoPs for the Bootheel, given
the better moisture and apparent weak upper level forcing, and
nudged in some isolated PoPs across the International border and
southern EP county through about 2 AM. Our 00Z sounding had a fair
amount of CIN once you mixed out the near-surface superadiabatic
layer, but we also have weak outflow drifting south down the
Mesilla Valley, so... having a barely mentionable PoP seems wise
based on trends.

Sunday is a tough call. Mid-level temperatures cool ever so
slightly from about -4.5C to -5.5C. 850-500mb moisture will
remain focused over Arizona and SW New Mexico. With the TUTT
moving into coastal Texas, broad upper level diffluence will
overspread our area, but with the main diffluence axis focused
over the Big Bend region. Most models limit convection to the
periphery of the CWA, favoring the higher terrain across SW New
Mexico, but also show good coverage over the higher terrain to our
east. The HRRR is a little more generous, particularly in southern
Hudspeth County, which is supported by the upper level diffluence
and perhaps some outflows coming in from points east. NBM PoPs
were far too high, with a nonsensical diurnal trend seemingly
peaking at Noon with widespread 70+ PoPs across the Gila.
Basically went with 50-70 PoPs across the west, highest in the
upper elevations and the Bootheel, with 50-60 PoPs in the
Sacramento Mountains, 30-40s in southern Hudspeth, and 20s across
most of central lowlands where instability will be most limited,
but with scattered PoPs expanding into Luna County in the evening
as outflows should be able to trigger a few more storms out that
way. Went with coverage qualifiers instead of probability.

On Monday, the TUTT will be east of Del Rio, with diffluent flow
remaining over the area. A weak, possibly convectively-induced
shortwave trough in the mid-levels looks to drift up towards ELP,
with 500 mb temps cooling to around -7C. Instability overall
improves, except over western NM where westerly low level flow
looks to drop dewpoints into the 40s. There`s a disturbing amount
of model divergence here. The NAM, for example is weaker with the
mid-level disturbance, and washes out the cold pool aloft by
afternoon. It also brings low level dry air deeper into the CWA
from the west, with essentially no instability north and west of
ELP. The HRRR hints at this as well. Went with lower-end scattered
PoPs early in the Gila, more terrain-depende
terrain areas and lowlands west of the Rio Grande. nt than usual, with
slight chance PoPs in the NM desert lowlands, and higher PoPs
across the Sacramentos and east of ELP.

The GFS and the NAM both deepen the mid-level disturbance and
bring it north Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS blows up late
night convection across the Borderland, while the NAM is dry and
stable. This sets up for a confusing Tuesday with high PWATs of
1.25 to 1.50 inches, deep moisture especially across our southern
counties, but fairly modest instability. If overnight convection
does occur Monday night, it`ll probably result in a down day
across the lowlands Tuesday despite the high moisture content,
with better chances in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains. If
Monday night is calmer, Tuesday should be a little more unstable,
with precip chances more spread-out.

Longer range trends all point towards a break late week, as
troughing off California directs drier SW flow aloft into the
area, the subtropics having been cut off by the subtropical ridge
axis dropping south over Mexico and extending across Baja
California. Best chances Tuesday will be across the Sacramento
Mountains, with a continued drying trend lasting into the weekend
as both the GFS and ECMWF drift the subtropical ridge right over
us again.

Luckily, the deterministic GFS is on the very dry side of the GFS
ensemble guidance in terms of PWAT, and the ensemble mean barely
dips below 1 inch at ELP. But the deterministic GFS is ugly, with
PWATs Saturday afternoon dropping to around 0.40 inches, and
surface dewpoints in the 20s. But even the bone-dry GFS brings
easterlies back as the ridge drifts north Sunday and Monday, and
has a strong TUTT moving into south Texas early next week, with
low level SE flow bringing more seasonal dewpoints back into the
area. So, even the worst case scenario just looks like a cyclical
monsoon break. And again, despite the ECMWF and GFS agreeing well
in terms of the upper level pattern towards the weekend, the
ensembles show more spread.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies will be FEW to
SCT at 6-12 kft, becoming SKC to FEW at 15-20 kft by mid morning.
Showers and storms will develop over the high terrain will FEW to
SCT ~10 kft CU development over the lowlands after 18Z. ISO TS/SH
will be possible over the lowlands after 21Z with outflow boundary
interactions. PROB30s for thunder are being carried for KDMN and
KLRU were confidence is slightly higher. Confidence for KELP is
still to low for my liking for any TS mention, with AMENDs in TAF
if needed this afternoon/evening. Prevailing winds will be
generally S/SW at 5-10 knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Sufficient moisture remains in place across the area through the
period (next 3-4 days) with daily chances of showers/storms. The
greatest focus for activity will be over the mountains and areas
west of the Divide this afternoon and evening. Coverage in
activity overspreads the entire forecast area on Monday and
Tuesday. Again, the primary threats will be gusty/erratic outflow
winds, moderate to heavy rain/flash flooding, and frequent
lightning. If storms develop in the vicinity of burn scars, flash
flooding will pose a threat.

Min RH values will be above critical thresholds areawide through
Wednesday, becoming drier from west to east Thursday and Friday.
Winds will be generally light at 7-15 mph each afternoon. However,
gust and erratic outflow winds will be likely in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Temperatures remain seasonal through the middle of
next week, becoming warmer Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  76  97  72 /  20  20  20  40
Sierra Blanca            93  68  91  65 /  50  50  60  60
Las Cruces               95  69  94  68 /  20  20  20  30
Alamogordo               96  71  94  67 /  30  30  30  30
Cloudcroft               74  52  72  51 /  60  30  70  50
Truth or Consequences    94  70  94  68 /  30  30  40  20
Silver City              87  62  86  62 /  50  40  40  20
Deming                   97  70  96  68 /  30  40  20  20
Lordsburg                92  67  91  67 /  40  50  30  30
West El Paso Metro       97  74  95  71 /  20  30  20  40
Dell City                98  72  96  68 /  30  40  40  50
Fort Hancock             99  75  97  72 /  40  50  60  50
Loma Linda               91  68  89  64 /  20  30  40  40
Fabens                   98  73  96  70 /  40  40  30  40
Santa Teresa             96  73  94  69 /  20  30  20  40
White Sands HQ           97  74  96  71 /  30  30  30  30
Jornada Range            95  70  95  68 /  20  30  30  20
Hatch                    98  70  97  68 /  30  30  30  20
Columbus                 96  72  95  70 /  30  40  20  30
Orogrande                94  70  93  67 /  20  30  30  30
Mayhill                  84  58  82  57 /  50  30  70  50
Mescalero                84  57  83  56 /  50  30  70  50
Timberon                 81  56  80  53 /  50  30  50  40
Winston                  85  58  86  58 /  70  40  60  20
Hillsboro                93  65  93  63 /  30  30  40  20
Spaceport                94  67  94  65 /  30  30  30  20
Lake Roberts             87  57  87  57 /  60  40  50  20
Hurley                   89  64  89  63 /  30  30  30  20
Cliff                    94  65  93  66 /  50  40  40  20
Mule Creek               89  62  89  63 /  50  30  40  20
Faywood                  89  64  89  63 /  30  40  40  20
Animas                   92  68  91  68 /  50  50  40  30
Hachita                  91  68  91  66 /  40  50  20  30
Antelope Wells           89  65  89  66 /  60  60  40  50
Cloverdale               83  62  83  62 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers