Rio Rancho, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS65 KABQ 171748 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

- Dry, warm and windy conditions is on tap areawide today with
  high fire danger and areas of blowing dust. Warm and windy
  conditions with high fire danger returns for areas along and
  south of I-40 and along and east of I-25 on Friday.

- Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern
  areas mid Friday through Saturday as a system moves across the
  state. A few to several inches of snow accumulation possible
  across the northern mountains on Saturday.

- Warmer and dry weather returns early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

High Wind Warning was expanded westward to include the
Sandia/Manzano mountains, Southwest Mountains, and Lower Rio
Grande Valley. The most recent HREF and NBM probabilities show a
high chance of gusts in excess of 60 mph in these areas,
particularly in the San Mateo and Gallina mountains.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Strong winds with gusts of 45 to 65 mph combined with a very dry and
warm airmass will result in a high risk of rapid fire spread
areawide today. Cooler, especially western and northern areas, on
Friday with lower elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers
across western and far northern areas Friday. Temperatures cool down
even more areawide on Saturday with rain and mountain snow showers
for most as a storm crosses the state. Snowfall accumulations of 4
to 10 inches are expected across the northern mountains. Warmer and
drier conditions return Sunday. Chances for diurnal showers and
storms across the eastern plains come the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Southwest winds aloft are on the uptrend today in advance of two
upper level troughs/lows, the first is a northern stream low
dropping south from over the northern Great Basin and the second is
a Pacific low offshore of SoCal. A lee side trough will deepen today
in response to the approaching troughs, down to around 989mb across
east central/southeast CO. Unusually warm temperatures and deep
layer mixing of strong southwest winds aloft, coupled with the
deepening lee side trough, will bring very windy conditions with
areas of blowing dust by mid afternoon. The strongest winds are
forecast across eastern and portions of central NM, where gusts up
to 65mph are possible. The wind speed forecast trended up slightly
from the previous forecast cycle and needed to upgraded Union and
Quay Counties to a warning from an advisory. Otherwise, the wind
highlights are on track. Will likely need Dust Advisories and Dust
Storm Warnings by mid afternoon in the middle RGV and near Roswell
at a minimum. Otherwise, highs will be well above average today and
will likely challenge or exceed daily records at Roswell, Fort
Sumner, Clovis and Tucumcari. The Pacific low is forecast to open up
and phase with the northern stream low as it approaches the Four
Corners on Friday. Strong southwest flow aloft will persist Friday,
but focus further south across the state and result in very windy
conditions across south central and southeast areas where additional
wind highlights will likely be required. A cold front will precede
the approaching upper low on Friday and bring some cooler
temperatures and moisture to western NM. Precipitation chances will
ramp up late Friday across north central/northwest NM and a few
thunderstorms are possible. Snow will begin to accumulate above 8-
9kft Friday afternoon in the north central/northwest mountains and
advisories may be required going into Friday night. The backdoor
segment of the cold front will slide into far northeast NM Friday,
but strong southwest winds ahead of it will prevent the front from
making much progress. Another round of blowing dust is likely Friday
afternoon across south central and southeast areas including
Roswell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

An upper low at the base of a positively tilted trough across the
Rockies and northern and central Great Plains will pivot east-
southeast from the Utah and Arizona border to northwest NM Friday
night into Saturday morning. Ahead of the low along the Pacific
front, a band of rain and mountain snow will be ongoing across the
Four Corners area Friday evening, spreading southeast turning into
predominately snow across western and northern NM heading towards
sunrise Saturday. Additionally, a backdoor front across very far
northeast NM Friday will dive southeast across much of eastern NM
Friday night into Saturday morning helping to increase surface
moisture and aid in the development of mainly snow showers across
northeast NM and the east slopes of Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Precip type will mainly be snow come Saturday morning because of 700
mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -7 deg C. Precip along the Pacific
front could dissipate across the RGV along and south of I-40 mid to
late Saturday morning due to westerly downslope flow south of the
upper low circulation across northern NM. However, if the low ends
up tracking a little further south than what guidance shows, this
could bring some better rain and snow chances to the ABQ Metro.
Surface forcing from the aforementioned fronts and upper level
forcing ahead of the upper low will help light to moderate snow to
ramp up across the northern mountains Saturday morning continuing
through much of the day. Precip will spread across northeast and
north central NM come the afternoon due to increasing upper level
divergence ahead of the upper low over north central NM combining
with surface upslope flow behind the backdoor front. With all the
cloud cover and precip due to the storm overhead, temperatures will
be well below average by 15 to 25 degrees for mid April. The system
exits east into the southern Great Plains Saturday evening into
Saturday night with precip quickly coming to an end from west to
east. In the end, a tenth a quarter of an inch of liquid is expected
across lower elevations in western NM and areas along and north of I-
40 with amounts of a quarter to three quarters of an inch across the
higher terrain of northern NM. Snowfall accumulations look to be
limited to the northern mountains with amounts of generally 4 to 10
inches with the higher end of this range being observed across the
peaks.

Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions return Sunday with
northwest flow quickly turning into zonal flow in the wake of the
upper low. Temperatures will be below average by only about 5
degrees on Sunday warming up above average by around 5 to 10 degrees
come Tuesday. Return flow sets up across eastern NM late Monday into
Tuesday bringing higher Gulf moisture into this part of the state.
Dry westerly flow looks to push it east into Texas on Tuesday, but
moisture looks to return across much of eastern NM on Wednesday
behind a weak backdoor front. This higher moisture could set the
stage for diurnal shower and storm chances come then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Strong SW wind gusts of 35 to 50 knots will be commonplace around
central and northern New Mexico today, with the corridor of
strongest winds extending from the southwest mountains to the
northeast plains. Widespread visibility reductions of 3 to 6 miles
are likely, with dust prone areas such as KROW dropping below one
mile at times between 21Z and 00Z when dust is expected to be
most widespread. Surface wind speeds along with blowing dust will
diminish after 03Z, but winds just off the sfc will remain strong,
creating LLWS at sites along and just east of the central mountain
chain. LLWS may develop briefly for sites in the eastern plains as
well, including KTCC and KROW.

An upper-low will dig into the Four Corners region towards the end
of the TAF period, bringing precipitation in from the northwest
after 12Z. Rain/snow showers will be accompanied by gradually
dropping cigs, which may drop down to MVFR levels at western
sites.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

A fire growth pattern will persist through Friday as an upper level
trough/low approaches from the west. Today will be the windiest and
warmest day of the two, with widespread critical fire weather
conditions. Extremely critical fire weather conditions are likely
across much of central and eastern NM today. A cold front associated
with the approaching trough will bring cooler temperatures, higher
humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to northwest NM
Friday, but another round of critical fire weather conditions are
forecast for much of central and portions of eastern NM. Much cooler
conditions are forecast Saturday with good chances for wetting
precipitation as the upper level trough/low moves east over the
state. A warming/drying trend will begin Sunday and continue into
early next week, with very low probabilities for critical fire
weather conditions going through the middle of the week. Gulf
moisture may invade the eastern plains early/mid next week and
result in wetting storms, but low forecast confidence at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  39  53  32 /   0  30  70  60
Dulce...........................  67  31  50  27 /   0  20  60  60
Cuba............................  69  33  52  27 /   0   5  40  50
Gallup..........................  68  31  52  22 /   0  10  50  70
El Morro........................  66  31  53  26 /   0   0  30  60
Grants..........................  71  32  57  24 /   0   0  20  50
Quemado.........................  69  31  58  27 /   0   0  20  50
Magdalena.......................  74  37  64  34 /   0   0   5  20
Datil...........................  69  33  58  30 /   0   0   5  30
Reserve.........................  71  32  62  26 /   0   0   0  40
Glenwood........................  76  37  66  30 /   0   0   0  30
Chama...........................  61  28  45  26 /   0  10  80  60
Los Alamos......................  70  37  55  34 /   0   0  30  40
Pecos...........................  71  37  58  30 /   0   0  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  65  32  52  28 /   0   0  30  60
Red River.......................  55  27  43  22 /   0   5  40  70
Angel Fire......................  61  28  49  21 /   0   0  30  60
Taos............................  69  31  56  26 /   0   0  20  50
Mora............................  69  34  56  27 /   0   0  20  40
Espanola........................  77  37  62  35 /   0   0  10  40
Santa Fe........................  73  37  60  34 /   0   0  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  76  38  62  34 /   0   0  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  44  66  41 /   0   0  10  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  44  68  39 /   0   0  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  43  70  38 /   0   0  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  43  68  39 /   0   0  10  30
Belen...........................  84  42  72  37 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  81  43  68  39 /   0   0  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  82  41  71  36 /   0   0   0  20
Corrales........................  81  44  69  37 /   0   0  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  83  42  71  36 /   0   0   0  20
Placitas........................  77  43  64  39 /   0   0  10  40
Rio Rancho......................  80  43  68  39 /   0   0  10  30
Socorro.........................  84  44  74  41 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  39  61  34 /   0   0  10  30
Tijeras.........................  74  40  62  35 /   0   0  10  30
Edgewood........................  75  39  64  33 /   0   0  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  38  66  28 /   0   0   0  30
Clines Corners..................  73  37  62  28 /   0   0   0  20
Mountainair.....................  75  40  65  33 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  76  42  65  32 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  80  50  69  40 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  74  46  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  75  35  57  25 /   0   0  30  50
Raton...........................  77  35  60  27 /   0   0  20  50
Springer........................  79  37  63  29 /   0   0  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  74  37  60  28 /   0   0   5  30
Clayton.........................  85  45  66  32 /   0   0  10  40
Roy.............................  80  42  64  31 /   0   0   0  30
Conchas.........................  89  49  74  37 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  85  47  73  36 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  91  53  76  38 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  89  55  78  40 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  90  56  79  38 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  88  53  78  38 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  95  58  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  87  52  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  83  50  72  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-213>215-
220>234-239-240.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205-210>212-216-
218-219-235>238-241.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ106-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.