Los Alamos, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

401
FXUS65 KABQ 061155 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A backdoor cold front sliding down the plains this morning will
push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain by the noon
hour. Breezy conditions are expected both across northeast New
Mexico and below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. Cooler
temperatures are expected today, especially so across eastern New
Mexico. Temperatures will rebound on Monday and will remain above
normal through the work week. Outside of a few sprinkles on
Wednesday and Thursday, it also looks dry through Friday. A storm
system may bring unsettled weather for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

High temperatures will fall around 4 to 18 degrees over east central
and northeast areas today compared to Saturday`s readings, thanks to
a gusty backdoor cold front that will continue to move through this
morning.  The front will begin pushing through gaps in the central
mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the
central valley from Santa Fe southward from late morning until mid
evening. With this package, we forecast wind speeds a few mph over
guidance, since models have consistently under forecast the strength
of gap winds this fall.  In addition, the temperature and pressure
gradients look favorable for gusty gap winds due to a 1020 mb high
sinking southward over the Great Plains and a high pressure system
over AZ bringing another round of near record warmth to western
NM. Backdoor fronts like this are notorious for arriving sooner
than forecast, and for producing stronger winds than forecast, so
the day shift will need to monitor the evolving weather pattern
closely.

On Monday, high temperatures will rebound over eastern areas,
while readings trend a few degrees cooler further west as the
ridge of high pressure over AZ begins to weaken. High temperatures
today and Monday will vary around 4 to 12 degrees above 1991-2020
averages, except for readings near the 30-year average over east
central and northeast areas this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

587 dam ridge over AZ will persist Monday evening. Dry conditions
with light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to excellent
radiational cooling. Valley locales, especially mountain valleys,
will be quite cold overnight. Areas around Gallup may drop to the
freezing mark for the first time this season.

Quiet conditions expected Tuesday. The ridge axis will shift over
the NM/AZ border, though weaken a dam or so. Overall, not much
change from Monday though cloud cover will increase in the
afternoon as compared to Monday. High temperatures will be 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

On Wednesday, a weak Pacific low will move east over the northern
Baja while the ridge axis, as ill-defined as it will be, moves
squarely over NM. This low will allow for a modest uptick in mid
to upper level moisture (btw H5 and H6) over NM. Couldn`t rule out
a few sprinkles over the high terrain, and given the dry boundary
layer, gusty winds will likely accompany any virga or sprinkles.

Upper level ridging may strengthen slightly on Thursday. Some mid
level moisture will be lingering so some virga and/or sprinkles
will be possible over the high terrain once again. Quiet
conditions on tap for Friday, though a weak disturbance rounding
the upper high will send a weak boundary into NE NM. Little, if
any, difference in temperatures will be noted.

Uncertainty remains high for next weekend. A stronger Pacific
trough will move over the western CONUS late Friday. Thereafter,
there remains strong disagreement among the models as to how this
feature will evolve as it shifts eastward. One solution is for the
trough to move ashore over OR, shift eastward toward the Rockies,
before diving southward over CO and NM. This solution would bring
a strong backdoor front to NM on Sunday as well as some
precipitation over at least northern NM. Another solution is for
the trough to shift eastward over the Great Basin then become cut
off over AZ. This solution would keep temps somewhat warmer
(but cooler than it`s been), and may bring some light precip to
western NM. The bottom line is that temperatures should be on the
downtrend for next weekend, and the weather may be a bit
unsettled. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A gusty backdoor cold front will continue to progress
southwestward through eastern areas this morning. Models bring the
front into the central valley with a gusty gap wind front Santa
Fe southward during late morning, then prolong it until early
evening. With this TAF package, we went above guidance on the
east wind speed at KABQ because models have been notoriously under
forecasting gap wind speeds there for months now, and especially
this fall. Also, fairly significant temperature and pressure
gradients are forecast to set up across the central mountain chain
with a 1020 mb surface high sliding southward over the Great
Plains and an unseasonably strong high pressure system aloft over
AZ. High temperatures across northeast and east central parts of
the forecast area will cool closer to 1991-2020 averages today,
but readings around 9-13 degrees above the averages west of the
central mountain chain will result in another afternoon of
unusually high density altitude there for this time of year.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A ridge of high pressure will persist over the Desert Southwest
through Friday with high temperatures several degrees above 1991-
2020 averages each day.  An exception will be readings near 30-year
averages over east central and northeast areas today, due to a
gusty backdoor cold front that will finish crossing eastern areas
this morning. The front will push through gaps in the central
mountain chain from mid day through early evening with east wind
gusts up to 30 mph below canyons opening into the central valley
from Santa Fe southward. One concern over the week ahead will be
critically low minimum humidities at lower elevations mainly west
of the central mountain chain today through Tuesday, then over
parts of the east as well during the latter half of the work week.
Meanwhile, there may be some gusty virga showers in some mountain
locations each afternoon around mid week. Models are beginning to
resolve an upper level trough or upper level low pressure system
that may approach the fire weather forecast area from the
northwest with increasing humidities and precipitation chances
starting Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  48  83  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  35  80  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  80  45  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  36  82  32 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  46  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  82  40  82  34 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  46  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  78  45  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  43  85  39 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  92  53  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  39  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  78  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  76  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  77  45  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  67  39  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  71  25  70  22 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  80  39  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  38  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  86  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  80  51  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  82  46  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  55  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  48  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  43  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  48  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  87  43  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  88  44  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  40  85  43 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  88  46  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  44  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  84  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  90  51  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  80  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  41  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  36  81  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  74  43  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  78  43  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  84  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  76  46  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  69  44  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  77  41  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  77  40  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  76  43  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  73  48  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  73  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  80  47  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  78  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  79  47  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  84  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  86  52  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  83  48  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  91  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  83  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44