Española, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXUS65 KABQ 061747 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop today,
  Saturday, and Sunday across the eastern plains of New Mexico. A
  few storms will turn strong to severe with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts being the main threats.

- Showers and storms will expand to central and some western areas
  of the state Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Heavy
  rainfall will be possible in isolated areas with a low to
  moderate risk of localized flash flooding over recent wildfire
  burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Areas of fog and low clouds will continue across the eastern plains
until mid morning, while a few showers and thunderstorms linger
between Tucumcari and Clayton. Otherwise, drier air will continue to
filter over the forecast area from the southwest today and Saturday
as the broad upper level trough over the western US weakens and a
low amplitude ridge of high pressure gradually builds over the
southern Rockies. Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be relegated to locations east of the central mountain chain
this afternoon and evening where a dryline will gradually push
eastward. In addition, a shortwave trough will pass from CO onto
the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, and there will again
be a modest subtropical jetstream over NM. Like yesterday, this
will set our eastern plains up for a high CAPE and high bulk shear
environment with an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in
Curry and Roosevelt Counties, and a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms farther north. A couple of supercell thunderstorms
produced multiple tornadoes in Roosevelt County under this setup
yesterday, and based on the Storm Prediction Center`s Day 1 Severe
Weather Outlook discussion we opted to mention the risk of large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes in the Zone Forecast for Curry
and Roosevelt Counties today.

Come Saturday, dry air will prevail across the majority of the
forecast area. There will still be a concern for isolated-to-widely
scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms east of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in the afternoon, where a somewhat moist
backdoor front will arrive.

Otherwise, high temperatures will trend warmer both today and
Saturday. Readings will generally reach within a few degrees either
side of average over northern and central areas by Saturday
afternoon, and as much as 10 degrees above average farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

An upper ridge will stretch across the Intermountain west and the
Great Basin on Sunday with a weak cut-off low drifting near the
central CA coast. This will reduce winds aloft with a westerly
component of 15 to 25 kt being common in the 700-500 mb layer. At
the surface, drier air will keep spilling into southwestern and
south central NM with dewpoints lowering into the teens and single
digits (F) there. Much of the eastern plains will also be drier
due to a west wind trying to scour out moisture, but a surface
front will be pushing cooler and more moist air into eastern CO,
southwest KS, the panhandles, and northeast NM. This will be a
trigger for storms, many of which may not enter northeast NM until
the early evening. The front will bring shifting winds and
introduce more shear, so strong to severe thunderstorm cells will
accompany. As for temperatures, they will run near to just
slightly above normal with Roswell likely reaching the century
mark again.

Convection firing along the surface boundary in northeast NM and
surrounding areas will help enhance the cold pool Sunday evening,
driving it farther south and west Sunday night through Monday
morning. A gusty east canyon wind would likely develop in
Albuquerque, and surface dewpoints would respond upward in the Rio
Grande valley. Some of this low level moisture will mix eastward
into the early afternoon Monday, but enough should be present to
bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms, although the western
fringe of storms (central zones) would likely be on the drier side
with less efficient rainfall production. The central mountain
chain and particularly the Sangre de Cristos should undergo a
significant increase in storms Monday with locally heavy rainfall
likely, including the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire burn
scar. The healthy coverage of storms through Monday evening and
deepening convective cold pools will shove the moisture farther
west through Tuesday morning.

Monday night`s moisture push will expand the convective
initiation area west toward the Continental Divide on Tuesday
with drier storms and more virga expected on the leading edge of
this. The central mountain chain will still fare very well with
numerous storms, and again the locally heavy rainfall threat will
continue along the central mountain chain, as sluggish storm
motions are forecast within the lighter wind fields aloft. The
remnants of the aforementioned cut-off low over CA will also
potentially be making their way across NM at this time, enhancing
storm coverage. The moisture may not advance westward much farther
Tuesday night, leaving Wednesday to be reliant on diurnal heating
over the high terrain with isolated to scattered storms. A
reintroduction of westerly winds aloft and at the surface on
Thursday will then likely push storm coverage farther east again
with less activity in western and central zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Low clouds and MVFR ceilings have continued to erode across eastern
NM this afternoon, giving way to VFR conditions. A similar setup to
Thursday is forecast this afternoon with isolated to scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains, mainly
after 20z. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats
with any severe storms, with the low chance of a tornado. Across the
rest of the state, breezy to gusty west to southwest winds are the
main aviation concern, though any peak gusts are forecast to remain
below 30kts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may linger over
northeast NM this evening as a moist backdoor front moves into the
area. As the last few nights have shown, this backdoor front may
bring in MVFR to locally IFR conditions across northeast NM, mainly
north of Interstate 40 and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The warming trend will continue through the weekend with decreasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day as drier air
continues to move in from the southwest. A low pressure system
that cutoffs today just west of the CA coast is forecast to open
into a trough and gradually track southeastward across NM Monday
and Tuesday. It will draw moist backdoor fronts progressively
further into the state nightly Saturday night through Monday night
with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms farther and
farther west each afternoon and evening; potentially reaching as
far west as the AZ border by Tuesday. The western fringe of the
moisture will probably be dry enough for gusty virga showers and
dry thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, while wetting
precipitation favors the northern mountains and the central
mountain chain eastward. In the wake of the upper trough, another
trough passing north of NM will draw subtropical moisture
northward over our state with another round of scattered-to-
isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring the continental divide
eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of the
second trough, drier air will filter over the forecast area from
the southwest on Thursday with decreasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  78  41  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  80  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  42  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  80  48  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  84  46  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  84  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  88  57  87  58 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  84  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  89  45  92  47 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  93  51  96  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  72  42  76  42 /   5   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  79  55  81  57 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  79  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  76  47  79  48 /   5   5   5   0
Red River.......................  67  40  68  40 /  10   5  10   0
Angel Fire......................  72  37  74  30 /   5   0   5   0
Taos............................  79  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  78  47  79  48 /   5   0   5   0
Espanola........................  86  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  80  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  84  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  63  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  59  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  57  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  93  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  91  58  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  92  54  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  91  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  55  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  86  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  90  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  97  62  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  85  56  86  57 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  84  52  85  52 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  47  86  48 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  81  51  81  52 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  85  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  91  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  85  57  86  53 /  10   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  75  47  76  48 /  40  20  30   5
Raton...........................  80  46  83  48 /  20  10  20   0
Springer........................  82  48  84  49 /  10   5  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  80  49  82  50 /  10   5  10   0
Clayton.........................  79  55  81  58 /  20  30  20   5
Roy.............................  80  52  81  53 /  10  20  10   5
Conchas.........................  87  58  89  59 /  20  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  86  56  89  57 /  20  20   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  85  58  88  59 /  30  30   0   5
Clovis..........................  88  61  91  62 /  30  30   0   5
Portales........................  90  60  92  61 /  30  30   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  91  59  92  59 /  30  20   0   5
Roswell......................... 100  65 101  66 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  59  96  60 /  20   5   5   0
Elk.............................  94  58  96  58 /  20   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...77