Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS64 KEPZ 112054
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
254 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

 - Warmer than average temperatures continue today and through the
   weekend

 - Very dry conditions, plenty of sunshine and no chance for any
   precipitation through the weekend and into early next week

 - Winds generally light, with the exception of low-end breezy
   conditions this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Upper level ridging dominates the weather tonight and the
remainder of the weekend. Expect warmer than average temperatures
to continue, light to modest afternoon breezes, and dry
conditions. By Monday, an upper trough will slide eastward across
the northern CONUS which will spill a cool front into the area
late Monday/early Tuesday. Not much cooling out of this front,
perhaps a 5 degree drop or so. A shortwave passes by to the
northwest of the CWA Tuesday which would give us a shot at rain if
this energy was closer by. This low has trended further and
further away from the Borderland which continues to keep chances
bleak. Shortwave ridging expected early Wednesday and Thursday,
bumping high temperatures for El Paso right back to the 90 digit
mark both days. Both long range models are illustrating a potent
upper low towards the end of next week which could very well bring
rain chances to the area. Will be something to monitor as we
continue to get newer model data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with mostly SKC, but
FEW-SCT250 could pop up here and there later this evening.
Otherwise, light afternoon breezes today becoming calm (AOB 5KT)
tonight and through the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Upper level ridge dominates the weather tonight and through the
weekend bringing well above average temperatures, afternoon
breeziness, and dry conditions. In addition, near critical to
critical fire danger tomorrow and Sunday. Sunday`s winds will be a
bit stronger than Saturday but both days will feature very dry
conditions. Min RH values will be 3-5% in the lowlands and 8-10%
in the Sacramento Mtns tomorrow. Similar min RHs Sunday
afternoon, only a few degree increase from Saturdays RHs. The area
generally will continue to see critical min RHs each afternoon
but winds stay below critical thresholds. Wednesday looks to be
near critical fire danger due to single digit min RHs and winds
will be close to critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  94  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               51  91  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  90  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  68  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  92  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              52  83  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  93  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                48  90  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                52  93  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             58  95  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   57  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  91  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  92  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  90  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    48  94  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 52  94  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  89  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  82  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                47  80  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  77  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  42  83  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                51  90  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  91  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  83  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   48  86  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  90  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  85  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  51  86  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   50  92  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  91  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           51  90  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Southwest
     Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher