Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

096
FXUS64 KEPZ 221120
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
420 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 354 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

  - Temperatures will warm to well above normal early next week,
    hitting their peak on Tuesday. A subtle drop in temperatures
    on Thursday with a backdoor cold front.

-   Another warming trend late next week into next weekend.

  - Very dry conditions will prevail with single digit relative
    humidity expected starting Sunday and into next week.

  - Fire weather conditions will be our primary focus, with warm,
    dry, and unstable conditions, combining with record dry late
    winter fuels to increase Fire Danger. However, the lack of
    strong winds will keep the region from reaching Critical
    levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Upper trough and weak upper level cut off low currently over
central Arizona will move across the area bringing only a few
high level clouds. A few high level clouds are seen on satellite
over eastern portions of Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso counties
early this morning. On the heels the aforementioned upper trough,
models show another quick passing shortwave trough diving
southeast out of the Great Basin later today. No sensible weather
impacts are expected with either trough other than some high level
clouds as dry conditions will continue through the entire forecast
period. Pressure heights rise quickly behind the trough on Sunday
as ridging over the Baja builds over the Borderland bringing a
gradual warming trend to the area. Temperatures will be some 10 to
15 degrees above climatological normals through at least Tuesday.

A weak backdoor cold front associated with a shortwave trough
will move into the area from the four corners region into the
Borderland area around the Wednesday night/ early Thursday time
frame. Both deterministic models show the backdoor front will get
hung up along the Sacramento mountains on Thursday, but will allow
for some cooler air to filter into the area dropping temperatures
around 3 to 5 degrees. Temperatures will moderate again on Friday
as heights raise again as a short wave ridge over the Desert
southwest moves into the area allowing for another warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 354 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Upper trough will
bring a few mid level cloud and few to scattered high level clouds
to the Borderland this afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable AOB 07 knots or less.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
forecast period, however, elevated fire weather conditions are
possible due to very low humidity values in the Sunday through
Wednesday time frame. Min RH values today will be in the teens
west of the Rio Grande, and upper teens to lower 20s east of the
Rio Grande. A prolong stretch of Min RH values in the single
digits begins on Sunday through the middle of next week, then a
modest bump in Min RH on Thursday and Friday. Light winds will
prevail through the period with a few afternoon breezes will limit
critical fire weather conditions, but very dry conditions will
create widespread elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions through the latter part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  37  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  33  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               62  32  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  30  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               42  25  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    63  33  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              59  32  67  38 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   65  30  74  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64  29  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  39  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  25  72  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             66  32  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  35  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   64  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  40  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            62  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    66  29  74  32 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 65  35  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  31  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  55  30  63  37 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                53  27  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 50  25  60  30 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  57  22  67  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                61  32  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                62  27  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             60  28  68  34 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   61  28  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    67  22  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               62  29  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  60  34  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   66  31  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  30  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           66  34  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               61  38  69  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly