Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS64 KEPZ 251235
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
535 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

 - Light rain showers pushing into south-central New Mexico
   currently, will diminish as they cross the Rio Grande. Minimal
   impacts, as snow levels remain above mountaintop level.

 - A frontal passage Sunday into Monday will bring cooler
   temperatures and sparse chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

When what to my wondering eyes should appear? No sleigh or
reindeer, but rain -- near here, and puddles in Silver City. The
storm system over California and Arizona managed to sling a weak
shortwave trough into southwestern New Mexico, and just enough
moisture for some rain showers, which have managed to push east of
the Black Range and even past Deming with measurable rainfall.
Evaporative cooling has brought the winds up a little bit on the
leasing edge of the showers, though they`ll trend back towards
light and variable shortly after onset. Carried the mentionable
PoPs further east with this update, which could see a hundredth or
two make it into Las Cruces overnight, and perhaps a sprinkle into
west El Paso.

Snow levels remain well above 11,000 feet... with EBID`s station
on Emory Pass checking in with 41 degrees, and Mount Graham in
Arizona at 34 (10,400 feet). So no snow, even on the mountain
tops. And even if some precip managed to survive into the
Sacramentos, it`d all be rain there as well.

Otherwise, our warm spell will continue. Currently looking at a
high around 75 for ELP, which would tie the record for warmest
Christmas Day, but the mid and high clouds could play spoiler if
they don`t clear out. Either way, we`re still on track for the
warmest December on record based on Max Temps and Daily Average
Temps.

Another trough moving into California will send another shortwave
our way on Saturday, bringing breezy SW winds to the lowlands, and
an outside chance of additional spotty/insignificant rain showers
to the higher terrain, favoring SW New Mexico slightly.

Behind the trough, northwest flow will bring our temperatures down
about 10 degrees, and a backdoor cold front Sunday night will drop
us even further.

A very low confidence forecast follows, with a blocking high over
California set to develop, and a cutoff low to its south, and a
deformation zone across northern Mexico. Previous model runs
suggested the deformation zone would be further north, and would
bring us light rain showers near and south of the International
border, but more recent guidance has shifted south. The 12Z ECMWF
is a holdout, but we`ll see what the new ensemble guidance brings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

The bulk of the showery activity has moved out of the area early
this morning. Rain chances are basically done for the TAF period.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to hang around much of the
morning but will start clearing west to east this afternoon. Winds
will be out of the west southwest with minor afternoon breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 513 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Low fire danger the next week ahead or so as min RH values stay
above critical thresholds. Lowland min RHs will generally stay
20-35% through early next week and mountain min RHs will be
35-55% during this time. Winds will generally be 5-10 mph each
afternoon becoming calm overnight. A cold front will push in from
the Great Plains late Sun/early Mon, shifting winds easterly
becoming breezy over mountains and west facing slopes Monday
morning. Temperatures stay 10-20 degrees above average each day
through Saturday but then post cold front, temperatures become
5-10 degrees below normal Monday. Our next shot for rain will be
late Friday and into Saturday, but looks quiet and dry afterwards.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  49  75  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  74  54  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               42  70  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               44  71  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  51  41  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    43  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              43  65  44  60 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   43  73  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                39  70  41  65 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       48  73  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                37  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             46  79  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   43  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             44  72  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           51  73  55  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    38  74  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 45  74  49  73 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                49  71  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  41  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                35  63  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 34  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  33  65  34  61 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                44  70  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                39  70  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             25  64  27  58 /   0  10  10  20
Hurley                   40  68  43  64 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    33  70  33  64 /   0   0  10  20
Mule Creek               28  65  30  59 /   0   0  10  30
Faywood                  42  68  43  64 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   43  73  45  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  44  73  46  69 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           39  75  42  70 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               45  68  47  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher