Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXUS64 KEPZ 060423
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1023 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1020 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

- Isolated showers with occasional thunder will persist through
  much of the night though most locations stay dry

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes more widespread
  Saturday afternoon and evening with heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding the main concern, especially in area mountains

- Cooler temperatures continue again Saturday with the lingering
  showers and cloud cover. Warming quickly Sunday and Monday.

- Drier and very warm conditions look to prevail Monday into the
  middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

We remain in a rather moist pattern thanks in part to what`s left
of Lorena`s mid and upper-level moisture. A weak s/w trough axis
is crossing NM which is responsible for a line of showers over the
northern half of the CWA. High moisture content and continued
subtle forcing will keep low rain/storm chances going through the
night though most locations are expected to stay dry.

As we go into Saturday afternoon, a more notable s/w trough, now
over NV, will shift into CO with its trough axis extending
southward into NM. This feature will be responsible for triggering
and organizing at least one round of showers and thunderstorms.
Convection will form in the Gila (as well as the Sacramento
Mountains) before shifting southeast into the lowlands, possibly
affecting Las Cruces and El Paso. HRRR also indicates a second
round of convection developing behind it though I`m skeptical of
this solution. With PWAT values still over 1.25", heavy rainfall
and flash flooding would be the main concern.

Isolated showers/low rain chances will continue through the night
Saturday into the morning Sunday, but by noon the trough axis
will be well east of the area. Sunday should be a much quieter day
and the start of a dry spell as upper level ridging builds across
the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will climb as a result with
thunderstorm chances mainly limited to the mountains. MEX guidance
has 99 for a high at El Paso on Tuesday though the NBM is a
couple degrees cooler. Moisture will remain trapped under the
ridge with enough around to give our mountains a low chance for
storms.

The UL ridge begins to shift east starting mid-week ahead of a
stout UL trough. This will force the moisture circulating around
the high east into New Mexico, reintroducing storm chances to the
picture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Primarily VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with
BKN-OVC skies with CIGs as low as 050. ISO SHRA/TSRA will remain
possible throughout the night (about 20% chance of impacts at any
given terminal) and through the morning. A higher chance for
SHRA/TSRA is expected during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday with PROB30s included for each TAF site. Outside of
heavier showers and storms, winds will remain light and variable
with speeds below 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Thanks to a fetch of deep tropical moisture continuing to stream
in from former Hurricane Lorena, off the Baja coast, our region
is quite juiced, with very low fire weather concerns. The cloudy
and cooler nature of the airmass, means low instability, and
lesser chances for high-rain rate thunderstorms, favoring instead
a lighter rain type from stratiform rainshowers. With the more
moist air, and much below seasonal average temperatures, RHs are
quite elevated. Winds will be generally light to moderate. The
Gila, and possibly the N SACs will break out of the cloud shield,
and get some daytime heating, and thus maybe some mid/late
afternoon storms. Any storms could produce heavy rain/flash
flooding. We expect to see some lingering showers progress W to E
across the area overnight, but with a focus across the border
lowlands, with diminishing chances away from the border to the
north.

For Saturday, it is expected that we will lose a lot of the high-
level moisture, and thus see more sunshine, giving rise to more
heating and atmospheric instability. This should mean at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the Gila region
and Sac mountains. This is the setup, still with above ave
moisture, where we could see heavy rainfall producing storms, with
local flash flooding. It will still be cooler than normal, with
elevated RH, and lightish winds.

Sunday begins a better drying, as we see W and NW aloft drive in
drier air from the Four Corners area, and push the tropical
moisture to our E and S. Thus, we begin to see a rapid reduction
in rain/storm chances, a noticeable warming (but still at or
below normal), and a slow erosion of good RH values. As we get
into Monday and Tuesday, we see the warning and drying trends
continue, with most of the region seeing no storms, and
temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals. Afternoon RH
may drop into the upper teens by TUE, but nothing elevated or
critical to come.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  86  68  91 /  20  40  30  10
Sierra Blanca            60  80  59  85 /  40  70  30  20
Las Cruces               60  83  62  88 /  20  50  40  10
Alamogordo               60  82  62  88 /  20  60  40  10
Cloudcroft               43  59  45  65 /  20  70  40  30
Truth or Consequences    61  82  62  87 /  40  60  30   0
Silver City              55  77  57  83 /  40  70  30  10
Deming                   62  86  63  91 /  30  50  30   0
Lordsburg                61  84  63  88 /  20  50  20  10
West El Paso Metro       66  84  67  88 /  20  40  30  10
Dell City                62  82  62  88 /  30  50  20  10
Fort Hancock             65  85  66  91 /  40  60  30  20
Loma Linda               59  77  60  82 /  20  50  30  10
Fabens                   65  84  65  89 /  40  40  30  10
Santa Teresa             63  83  64  88 /  20  40  30   0
White Sands HQ           63  84  64  88 /  20  50  40  10
Jornada Range            60  82  62  87 /  30  50  40  10
Hatch                    60  86  62  91 /  20  60  40  10
Columbus                 62  85  64  90 /  30  40  30   0
Orogrande                60  81  61  86 /  20  50  40  10
Mayhill                  49  69  51  76 /  20  70  30  30
Mescalero                48  72  50  78 /  30  70  40  30
Timberon                 47  68  49  73 /  20  70  30  30
Winston                  50  75  50  81 /  50  70  40  10
Hillsboro                57  83  58  88 /  40  70  40  10
Spaceport                59  82  59  87 /  30  60  40  10
Lake Roberts             52  78  51  83 /  50  80  40  20
Hurley                   56  80  58  85 /  40  60  30  10
Cliff                    60  85  60  89 /  40  60  30  10
Mule Creek               56  81  57  86 /  40  60  20  10
Faywood                  57  80  58  85 /  40  60  30  10
Animas                   61  84  63  88 /  20  50  20  10
Hachita                  60  82  61  88 /  30  50  20  10
Antelope Wells           59  81  61  86 /  40  60  20  10
Cloverdale               58  77  59  82 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown