Bernalillo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS65 KABQ 160519 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1119 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

- Gusty virga showers may develop this evening, especially over
  the higher terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Downburst
  winds and localized blowing dust may occur.

- Another period of very dry and windy conditions is on tap
  Wednesday through Friday with high fire danger and areas of
  blowing dust, especially Thursday.

- Precipitation chances for many locations on Saturday with higher
  precipitation amounts favoring western, northern and parts of
  eastern New Mexico.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Windy conditions begin to ramp up Wednesday and continuing through
Friday, with the strongest winds occurring on Thursday. Each day
will have the risk of rapid fire spread as winds combine with very
dry conditions, with the highest risk on Thursday. Blowing dust will
also be of concern on Thursday, with the potential for visibilities
to drop below a mile near dust prone areas. Cooler and wetter
weather returns this weekend as lower elevation rain and mountain
snow cover much of the northern half of the state late Friday
through Sunday. Mild and drier conditions return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Showers have already developed across portions of north-central NM
early this afternoon and will continue to increase in coverage the
next couple of hours as daytime heating continues to destabilize the
atmosphere. Showers are moving quickly and sfc dewpoints are in the
20-30F range so rainfall will struggle to reach the ground. That
means if lightning does occur, it will likely not be accompanied
with wetting rainfall. That being said, more than a lightning strike
or two appears unlikely given that the best instability does not
overlap with the best forcing. Hi-res models indicate that a few
showers may develop as far south as the Rio Grande Valley so some
gusty evening showers in the Albuquerque metro cannot be ruled out.
Dry southwest flow will develop Wednesday as a shortwave ejects
across the state. Temperatures will soar on Wednesday thanks to
strong warm air advection out ahead of the approaching Pacific Low
and this combined with downsloping compressional heating will warm
temps 10 to as much as 20 degrees above Tuesday`s highs in central
and eastern areas. Record highs will be threatened and Roswell still
has a very high chance (94%) of reaching 90F since southwest winds
should aid in deep mixing in the Pecos River Valley. The main
corridor of winds associated with the shortwave will move through
early Wednesday, with stronger 700mb flow developing later in the
evening as the broad upper-Low off the CA coast begins to eject
inland. Given the misalignment with peak heating, Wednesday will be
more breezy than windy, with a few higher gusts in northeastern
areas as the shortwave moves through. Since winds aloft will be
trending up through Wednesday night, winds will remain at least
breezy through the night over high terrain areas, with the southwest
and south-central high terrain the areas with the best chance to
remain gusty.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Potentially strong winds are increasingly likely for Thursday as 50-
60kt 700mb southwest winds begin to overlay across New Mexico. Deep
mixed layers throughout much of the late week will allow efficient
momentum transfer to the surface, resulting in widespread 45-60mph
wind gusts across the region Thursday. As a result of strong wind
gusts, widespread patchy blowing dust is likely for Thursday, which
can drop visibility lower than a mile in many locations, and perhaps
as low as a quarter-mile in the most dust prone areas. This can make
for hazardous travel conditions, along with hazardous crosswinds
from the prevailing wind gusts. Downsloping winds, along with dry
conditions, allow for temperatures to continue to be above average
in many lower elevation locations Thursday, with high temperatures
in the 80s common and some southeast locations pushing 90F.
Temperatures in western NM remain near average in the 60s to low 70s
as pressure heights begin to lower in anticipation of an approaching
low. Lower pressure heights continue to move towards NM Friday, with
temperatures responding accordingly by dropping around 10F from
Thursday. 700mb flow stays around 30-45kts throughout Friday,
continuing the chances for some stronger wind gusts up to 45-50mph
occurring through the region, focused more so on the southern parts
of the forecast area.

The aforementioned low starts to move into the region this weekend,
bringing back higher chances for wetting precipitation across
much of the region, with valley rain and mountain snow being the
most likely scenario. The precipitation begins in the northwest
Friday, then spreading across much of the state through Saturday,
focusing more on eastern NM late Saturday into early Sunday. Two
backdoor cold front push into NM, one on Friday and one on
Saturday. Both of which have the opportunity to increase upslope
flow and the overall coverage and intensity of precipitation
across eastern/northeastern NM. Higher confidence in this scenario
occurring Saturday rather than Friday, based on the track and
timing of the storm and associated moisture. The upper low moves
eastward late weekend into next week, with drier and warmer
conditions favored to return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, with increasing southwest flow on Wednesday resulting in
afternoon gusts between 25-35kts across the area. Strong/erratic
wind gusts will be associated with ongoing virga showers across
central/western NM before diminishing around 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...

A few lightning strikes remain possible in north-central NM late
this afternoon and early evening, which will be a concern for
potential ignitions ahead of critical fire weather days both
Wednesday and Thursday. Dry warm air advection and compressional
heating out ahead of a Pacific Low will result in much lower
humidities and breezy southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph across the
entire area tomorrow afternoon. Very deep mixing (as much as
17,000ft along the middle Rio Grande Valley) will aid in drying out
the boundary layer, dropping afternoon minimum humidities as low as
5%. For this reason, the entire Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning and was even expanded eastward to include the
Central Highlands. Additional expansions eastward are possible with
the next forecast package. Confidence is very high for widespread
critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions on Thursday so
the entire Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.
The most extreme conditions are expected in the central and
northeast highlands where winds may gust as high as 60 mph. Critical
fire weather conditions will favor central and eastern areas on
Friday afternoon as moisture begins to increase from the west as an
upper-trough over the northern Rockies merges with the Pacific Low
that will be hanging out off the coast of southern CA the next few
days. This trough will bring higher humidities and increased
precipitation chances. Wetting rainfall is most likely in the
northern mountains and northeast plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  78  43  71 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  74  35  68 /  10  10   0   0
Cuba............................  40  76  38  70 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  76  34  68 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  40  73  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  79  33  72 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  76  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  79  45  73 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  42  76  38  69 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  36  80  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  44  84  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  67  32  61 /  10   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  47  73  45  70 /  20   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  73  43  71 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  41  71  38  66 /  10   5   0   0
Red River.......................  37  60  34  56 /  10   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  33  66  33  63 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  37  74  35  70 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  38  73  42  69 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  45  81  43  78 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  74  44  72 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  78  43  76 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  82  50  79 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  84  49  81 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  87  47  83 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  85  48  81 /  20   0   0   0
Belen...........................  46  88  45  83 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  86  48  82 /  20   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  45  87  45  83 /  20   0   0   0
Corrales........................  50  86  48  83 /  20   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  87  46  83 /  20   0   0   0
Placitas........................  50  81  48  78 /  20   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  85  48  82 /  20   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  52  90  50  85 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  76  45  74 /  30   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  47  78  46  76 /  30   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  43  78  43  77 /  20   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  80  41  78 /  20   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  41  75  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  78  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  78  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  48  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  74  54  72 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  39  74  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  37  79  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  38  80  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  40  75  44  76 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  49  82  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  43  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  47  87  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  45  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  87  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  49  86  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  47  87  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  47  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  52  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ101-
104>106-109-120>126.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for NMZ223-224-226>234-239-240.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ105-106-
109-121-123>125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.