Belen, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS65 KABQ 172330 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions and blowing dust
  will continue in central and eastern New Mexico through the
  evening. Warm and windy conditions with high fire danger returns
  to areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley tomorrow.

- Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern
  areas mid Friday through Saturday as a system moves across the
  state. Minor travel impacts are likely in the northern
  mountains. Late season freezing temperatures may impact portions
  of central and eastern New Mexico.

- Warmer and drier weather returns early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions will continue through
the evening in central and eastern NM. Strong southwest winds will
continue to create patchy blowing dust, with visibilities
dropping below three miles at times. Fire danger will remain high
tomorrow for areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Precipitation chances increase from the west Friday and Saturday
as temperatures drop. Minor impacts from snow will favor the
northern mountains. A late season freeze is possible in central
and eastern areas past their average last freeze date.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Dust is starting to get picked up across central and eastern New
Mexico as sfc heating increases and stronger winds begin to mix
down. Gusts in excess of 60 mph have already occurred at numerous
places along and east of the central mountain chain, which will
continue to activate more dust sources around the state. Given the
dry conditions recently, the middle Rio Grande Valley from
Socorro county northward to Santa Fe area will be an area to
watch. Strong to damaging winds southwest winds may knock down
trees today as well, with the corridor of max wind gusts extending
on a line from the Magdalena Ridge northeastward to Clayton.
Winds will decrease in the evening, although may be a bit slower
to come down than in recent wind events in March/early April given
the longer days.

The upper-low over southern CA that`s bringing all this wind will
phase with a digging upper trough currently in the northern Rockies
to bring cooler temps and precipitation starting as early as Friday
morning in the Northwest Plateau. A backdoor front will intrude from
the northeast as well on Friday, but won`t make significant progress
until Friday night when southwest winds diminish. However, the dry,
warm, and windy conditions will linger in south-central and
southeastern areas where blowing dust will once again be a concern.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory for the area tomorrow afternoon.
Divergence aloft associated with the SW/NE oriented jet streak over
central NM along with strong cold air advection from the northwest
will create a frontogentical band of precipitation that will set-
up along the AZ/NM border, with snow potentially impacting the
I-40 corridor since it will be occurring overnight when
temperatures are colder.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

The aformentioned upper-low will continue its way southeastward
Saturday, resulting in cold air advection across central and
northern New Mexico. It will feel chilly out there, especially
considering its been so warm recently around the region. Highs
will range from 10 degrees (in the southeast) to as much as 25
degrees below seasonal averages (in the northern mountains).

Precipitation will spread across the state from west to east as the
core of the Low moves overhead. Cold air in the mid-levels will help
to destabilize the atmosphere and 7-9C/km 700-500mb lapse rates
suggests the development of convective showers with a few storms is
likely. This does include the northern mountains where there may be
some thundersnow, which is good to keep in mind in case anyone is
trying to hit the slopes one last time before the season is over. A
Winter Storm Watch was issued for all northern mountain zones given
the potential for heavy snowfall rates, but the marginal
temperatures will generally limit travel impacts to areas above
7,500 feet. That being said, temperatures will continue to drop
Saturday night when freezing levels could drop down to valley
floors. This is when areas such as Santa Fe and Taos could get a
brief shot of snow. The NBM 90th percentile suggests there is around
a 10% chance of 3" of snow in those two locations, with similar
totals along Tijeras Canyon. Low temperatures Sunday morning are
something to be monitored closely as some locations (such as
Albuquerque) are past their average last freeze date. The NBM
suggests a 30-70% chance of below freezing temps in Bernalillo
county so gardeners should think about prepping now for a
potential late season freeze. Dry northwest flow takes over Sunday
which should be a pleasant and seasonable Spring day around the
forecast area. After dry weather on Monday, Gulf moisture will
attempt to push in from the east on Tuesday. This could be the
start of a several day stretch with dry line storms in eastern NM
thanks to relatively weak southwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Strong to high southwesterly winds continue to impact many central
and southern terminals where peak gusts have been observed between
50 to 69 kts, with KLVS seeing the strongest thus far. Lesser, but
still strong winds are further north and west into the Four
Corners area. Large plumes of blowing dust have been lofted up
over the the southeastern half of NM as a result, with the lowest
visibilities centered over south-central NM. More spotty low
visibilities at ground level have been observed reaching MVFR at
KABQ and KAEG, with visibility lowering to 6SM at KROW this past
hour. Winds are still expected to begin backing down from these
peak speeds b/w 00Z to 02Z with blowing dust improving as well
this evening. LLWS will be a concern as ground-level winds
decrease with higher winds aloft persisting, and have maintained
mention of this at KLVS and KROW tonight. Southwest winds return
areawide early Friday morning but with lower peak speeds compared
to today. An approaching late season winter system will begin to
bring bkn to ovc ceilings into the northwestern quarter of NM
Friday with a wintry mix of mountain snow and valley rain reaching
KFMN and KGUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH CRITICAL
FIRE AGAIN TOMORROW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

Extreme fire weather conditions are ongoing across central and
eastern New Mexico this afternoon where single digit humidity and
wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph have been commonplace and will continue
for the next few hours. Southwest winds will trend weaker through
the evening, but locally critical conditions will hold on through
around 10PM in portions of eastern NM. Another round of critical
fire weather is on tap for tomorrow in south-central and eastern
areas, with lower winds and increasing humidity limiting fire danger
across the west and northeast plains. Humidities have trended
slightly higher compared to recent forecasts, but will still be sub-
10% in portions of eastern New Mexico. Widespread precipitation will
keep fire weather at bay Friday night through the weekend, with
several inches of snow expected in the northern mountains. There may
be some lightning activity, but most lightning should be accompanied
by wetting rainfall or snow. After drier weather Sunday and Monday,
humidities increase mid-week from the east as a backdoor cold front
brings an influx of Gulf moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  53  33  51 /  20  70  50  60
Dulce...........................  31  52  26  45 /  20  70  60  80
Cuba............................  35  55  29  44 /   5  60  50  70
Gallup..........................  32  52  25  47 /   5  70  80  60
El Morro........................  32  53  26  42 /   0  60  70  70
Grants..........................  33  60  27  48 /   0  40  50  60
Quemado.........................  32  59  28  45 /   0  30  50  60
Magdalena.......................  38  62  34  50 /   0   5  20  60
Datil...........................  34  58  29  45 /   0  10  40  60
Reserve.........................  32  63  29  51 /   0  10  50  60
Glenwood........................  37  67  35  57 /   0  10  40  60
Chama...........................  29  45  23  39 /  10  70  60  80
Los Alamos......................  39  55  33  43 /   0  50  40  80
Pecos...........................  37  58  31  43 /   0  20  30  80
Cerro/Questa....................  33  53  27  41 /   0  40  60  80
Red River.......................  28  43  20  32 /   0  50  70  80
Angel Fire......................  30  48  22  37 /   0  30  60  80
Taos............................  32  55  28  45 /   0  30  50  70
Mora............................  34  56  27  38 /   0  20  40  80
Espanola........................  40  63  34  51 /   0  30  40  70
Santa Fe........................  39  58  35  45 /   0  30  40  80
Santa Fe Airport................  39  62  34  48 /   0  30  30  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  66  39  52 /   0  30  30  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  68  39  54 /   0  20  30  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  70  40  56 /   0  20  20  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  69  39  53 /   0  30  30  60
Belen...........................  43  72  38  57 /   0  10  20  60
Bernalillo......................  45  70  39  54 /   0  30  30  70
Bosque Farms....................  42  71  38  57 /   0  20  20  60
Corrales........................  45  70  39  54 /   0  30  30  70
Los Lunas.......................  43  71  39  57 /   0  10  20  60
Placitas........................  44  64  37  50 /   0  30  40  80
Rio Rancho......................  45  69  39  53 /   0  30  30  60
Socorro.........................  45  75  41  59 /   0   5  10  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  61  33  47 /   0  30  40  80
Tijeras.........................  41  63  34  49 /   0  30  30  80
Edgewood........................  40  64  32  49 /   0  20  30  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  65  30  50 /   0  20  20  70
Clines Corners..................  37  60  29  45 /   0  10  10  70
Mountainair.....................  41  65  32  51 /   0   5  20  70
Gran Quivira....................  41  65  33  53 /   0   0  10  60
Carrizozo.......................  50  68  39  58 /   0   0   0  50
Ruidoso.........................  45  61  36  52 /   0   0   0  40
Capulin.........................  36  58  25  36 /   0  30  50  50
Raton...........................  37  62  28  41 /   0  30  50  60
Springer........................  38  64  31  43 /   0  20  30  60
Las Vegas.......................  38  61  30  41 /   0  10  30  70
Clayton.........................  47  68  32  45 /   0  20  30  40
Roy.............................  43  65  32  44 /   0  10  20  60
Conchas.........................  50  74  38  55 /   0   5  10  60
Santa Rosa......................  48  71  37  54 /   0   5   5  60
Tucumcari.......................  54  76  38  54 /   0   5   5  50
Clovis..........................  57  77  40  61 /   0  10   5  40
Portales........................  58  78  40  66 /   0   5   5  30
Fort Sumner.....................  55  76  39  63 /   0   5   0  40
Roswell.........................  58  81  47  70 /   0   5   0  20
Picacho.........................  53  73  40  63 /   0   0   0  30
Elk.............................  50  71  39  61 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-213>215-
220>234-239-240.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205-210>212-216-
218-219-235>238-241.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ106-123>126.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
for NMZ202-210-211-213>215-227.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ225-226-
238>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.