Artesia, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS64 KMAF 050725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
225 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered storms are in store this afternoon
  and evening across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. A
  few of these storms may become severe capable of producing
  damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and hail up to the size
  of dollar coins.

- Low (10% to 30%) shower/storm chances each afternoon/evening
  through the end of the week.

- Very warm temperatures persist, with a slight warming trend and
  increasing heat risk by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Current satellite and radar imagery shows decaying showers and
storms from far southeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. In
the upper-levels, a broad and weak ridge of high pressure has
settled over the region. As a result, slightly cooler temperatures
compared to yesterday are forecast in the 90s to lower 100s.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin,
driven by an outflow boundary from an earlier complex of storms
over the Central and Southern Plains. Shortwave impulses from the
weak ridge of high pressure will also supply more favorable
moisture and ascent for thunderstorm development. High resolution
forecast soundings depict inverted-V profiles, high DCAPE values (
> 1300 J/kg), Precipitable Water values (PWATs) nearing the 90th
percentile, and modest mid- level lapse rates. These parameters
suggest the potential threat of damaging winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and hail up to the size of half dollar coins with the
strongest storms. Only a few of these storms may become severe. Be
sure to remain weather aware and have multiple ways to receive
warnings!

Tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms look to linger across
the Trans Pecos, southern Permian Basin, and southeast New Mexico.
Storms are expected to be tame by this point due to the loss of
daytime heating and very weak wind shear. Lows are forecast to
range from the 60s to mid 70s for most locations. Monday, guidance
has the aforementioned upper ridge of high pressure in a similar
position compared to today. Remnant boundaries from Sunday night`s
storms yield further development for areas mainly along and south
of the Interstate 10 corridor during the afternoon. A storm or
two may be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall, however the severe weather threat will be lower compared
to today`s setup.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The forecast remains on track for warmer than average
temperatures and low (10% to 30%) shower/storm chances as mid to
upper ridging and large scale sinking motion persists over the
central CONUS. Highs in the 95F-100F range, 100F-105F along the
Pecos River and Rio Grande, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend can be
expected through Wednesday. Light, humid, upslope southeast winds
to the east of lee troughing to the west of the forecast area, a
stagnant mid to upper air pattern, and mainly heating of elevated
terrain and terrain induced disturbances aloft providing forcing
for ascent and moisture convergence - will continue to keep rain
chances low. Dry air/low RH in the lower troposphere and PWATs
below 1.00" will keep most rainfall accumulations below a few
tenths of an inch and minimize chance of flooding. Lows will
continue to settle into the 70F-75F range, 75F-80F across southern
and eastern portions of the area and 65F-70F Marfa Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos. Amplified ridging over the central CONUS is
still expected to result in warmer temperatures in the triple
digits and into the 110F-115F range for the Big Bend Wednesday
into next weekend. However, large scale sinking motion will keep
shower/storm chances low with little change in the near surface
temperature or air pattern. Therefore, any hazardous weather
impacts may remain largely confined to heat during the
afternoon/evening, especially middle to late week, with readings
up to 105F appearing not just over the Rio Grande basin, but the
Upper Trans Pecos and northeast Permian Basin. Slightly cooler
temperatures return for the beginning of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. An
outflow boundary associated with decaying storms across portions
of southeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, where winds have
shifted to the northeast at HOB and may do so at CNM and INK
sites after 06Z. After 09Z, winds will prevail out of the
south/southeast. Confidence is increasing in TS and -TSRA during
the afternoon hours especially at HOB, MAF, INK, and CNM
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  72  97  73 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                 98  71  98  72 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                  100  75  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            98  73  97  73 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  68  90  68 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                    96  67  95  70 /  30  30  10  10
Marfa                    92  62  91  61 /  10  10  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  96  73 /  30  30  10  10
Odessa                   97  73  96  73 /  30  20  10  10
Wink                     99  73  98  73 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11