Union City, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

724
FXUS61 KOKX 112156
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
556 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast this evening will track
slowly northeast through the weekend, passing to the south and
east of Long Island Saturday, and then to the east of New England
on Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in for Monday. A frontal
system will approach from the west Monday night, with a cold
frontal passage expected late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night. High
pressure then remains centered to the south and west thereafter
through next Thursday. Another storm system may impact the region
late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast remains on track with no adjustments made for this
update.

Deepening low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will lift
slowly north and east through the weekend, passing to the south
and east of LI on Saturday. While not a very deep system from a
minimum pressure stand point, it does have lot going for it
with deformation and strong frontogenetic forcing to the north
and west of the low track. There is a strong easterly low-level
jet (cold conveyor belt) on the order of 50 kt that lifts
through the area overnight, with a strong warm conveyor belt on
the east side of the low track. This will bring widespread
moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation across the area as
the main band of precipitation rotates north and west off the
ocean this evening. On average, expect around an inch of liquid
equivalent. Easterly winds will ramp up along the coast with
gusts up to 35 mph after midnight, then gradually subsiding on
Saturday as the low-level jet lifts north and gradually weakens.

There will also be a period of wintry weather across the
interior late tonight into the morning, specifically across
northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, but also a wintry
mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain from western Passaic in NJ,
east across the interior of southern CT. Much of this area will
see little or no accumulation following daytime highs in the
mid 40s to around 50. Even low temperatures will stay above
freezing across this area with lows in the mid 30s. However,
thermo profiles and strong upper lift supports a few hours of
moderate to heavy wet snow across portions of Orange and Putnam
counties in NY, as well as western Passaic county in NJ,
especially for elevations above 750 ft, where snowfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches will be possible. Lower elevations could see 1
to 2 inches. SLR will initially be 3:1 and may get as high 6
or 7:1. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for the overnight hours into Saturday morning for these counties.
A changeover to snow and/or a wintry mix is expected from 2 to
4 am. Farther to the south toward the coast, the boundary layer
will remain sufficiency warm along with a strengthening warm
nose aloft. The latter of which will not arrive across interior
portions of SW CT and the Lower Hudson Valley until after
daybreak Saturday with the loss of the deep-layered lift.

For Saturday, a dry slot in the mid levels pushes up from the
south with precipitation transitioning to mainly light rain and
drizzle during form late morning into the afternoon.
Temperatures rebound in the lower and mid 40s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With the upper trough passing through the area Saturday night
and weak low-level lift, there will be a chance of light rain
and/or drizzle, especially across LI and CT. Winds will become
northerly behind the surface low with conditions expected to
gradually dry out from west to east. Lows will be in the upper
30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure slowly slide east on Sunday, however the
lingering upper level trough and low are a bit slower to move east.
Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day, along with a chance some
showers possible across the eastern parts of CT and Long Island. By
afternoon, as the low moves further away, some breaks in the clouds
will be possible, especially further west. Max temperatures will
rise into the middle 50s.

Sunday night through Monday night, the forecast guidance is in good
agreement with an upper level ridge moving over the area. With weak
high pressure over the area, expect dry conditions on Monday.

An upper level trough will help push a cold front through during the
earlier hours of Tuesday morning. Ahead of it, a 50% chance of warm
advection rainfall. Still a chance of showers during the rest of
Tuesday with a cyclonic flow aloft, but most of the day should be
dry. Moderate to high confidence of no significant impacts
anticipated with this system, even if a rumble of thunder can`t be
ruled out during Monday night.

A stronger, but moisture-starved cold front follows for late Tuesday
night, then upper ridging doesn`t return until Wednesday night into
Thursday, resulting in a slow return of high pressure. Dry weather
expected for Tuesday night through Thursday. Another low pressure
system is expected to impact the region Friday into early next
weekend.

Stuck fairly close to the NBM. Temperatures remain in the 50s and
60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure off the northern New England coast weakens late
tonight as low pressure along the mid Atlantic coast tracks slowly
north to northeast tonight through Saturday.

Predominately MVFR ceilings and at times VFR into early this
evening, with VFR and at time MVFR to the east of the NYC terminals,
becomes MVFR this evening. Mainly dry, with scattered light rain
around the NYC metro area into early this evening. Rain moves in
from the south this evening with conditions lowering to MVFR and
then IFR by late tonight. Timing of the lowering conditions is
uncertain and may be off a couple of hours, depending on movement of
the low to the south. IFR then remains through the forecast period.
There is a low chance of LIFR along the coast late tonight into
Saturday morning.

E-ENE winds 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible.
Gusts become more frequent early this evening 20-25 kt, and by late
tonight 25 to around 30 kt, with the highest winds along the coast.
Winds back to NE this evening, and to N toward 18Z Saturday. A
period of LLWS is likely at KISP, KBDR, and KGON 06Z to 14Z, with
winds at 2K ft up to 50 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, becoming frequent this
evening. Gusts to around 30 kt possible late tonight. And there may
be a brief period of LLWS around 07Z at KJFK and KLGA, with 2K ft
winds 060 at 50 kt. Timing of flight category changes could be off
by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: IFR. Rain tapers to a chance of showers Saturday
night, becoming MVFR late at night. NE/N winds 10-20 kt with gusts
to around 25 kt.

Sunday: MVFR early becoming VFR. Chance of showers east of the NYC
terminals.

Monday: VFR. Chance of showers late at night.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of showers. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening easterly flow between low pressure approaching
from the Mid Atlantic and high pressure retreating to the
northeast will produce an easterly gale on the ocean waters
tonight into Saturday, with a SCA elsewhere. Seas on the ocean
will peak around 7 to 10 ft.

Low pressure will the move farther offshore and east of New
England on Sunday, with seas gradually falling below 5 ft Sunday
afternoon. Sub- advisory conditions are then expected through
Monday night. Next chance of SCA conditions will be on Tuesday,
mainly on the ocean for both winds and seas, but there could be
a few gusts to 25kt on the other waters as well. The SCA
conditions are expected through Wednesday before falling back
below advisory criteria Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from tonight through Saturday will averaging around an inch
for most places. Long duration of this rainfall should preclude
any impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal low will combine with astronomically higher tides to
potentially bring a round of minor coastal flooding for both the
Saturday morning and Saturday evening tide cycles. The full moon
takes place Saturday evening. There will be more of an easterly
component to the sfc winds for the 1st high tide Saturday morning,
with a gradually increasing northerly component to the easterly flow
during Saturday evening. This should make total water levels very
similar for both high tide cycles. However, blended guidance
(Stevens, ETSS) for most tidal locations is leaning towards a very
slight higher total water level for the evening high tide at most
gauges. For simplicity purposes went ahead and issued coastal flood
statements for both the Saturday morning and Saturday evening /
night cycles for the south shore bays of Nassau and SW Suffolk
County, and for Staten Island and Hudson, Essex, and Union Counties
in NE NJ as we get close enough to minor benchmarks to at least
warrant a statement. Used an ETSS and Stevens 75th percentile blend
in deriving the total water levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...