Toms River, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

888
FXUS61 KPHI 210841
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
441 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves east into the Ohio Valley, and a secondary
low will form over the Mid-Atlantic today. This low slowly
lifts to the north and east and will merge with the primary low
over New England late this week. High pressure briefly builds
through the region late this weekend. Low pressure may pass
near or south of the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure in the Ohio Valley gradually weakens while a new
surface low develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast by late today. These
will result in periods of rain and much cooler air through Thursday.

An extensive upper-level trough will evolve into the East today and
tonight, then this shifts eastward through Thursday. Additional
energy diving into this trough will result in cyclogenesis near the
lower Mid-Atlantic coast by later today. The initial low in the
upper Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes looks to remain as it
becomes embedded beneath a closed low or the trough axis itself. As
we go through today, some initial warm air advection aloft will
drive forcing for ascent across our area. This will result in an
expanding shield of rain through early/mid afternoon, although there
looks to be some breaks in the rain by later this afternoon
especially across the southern areas as the initial organized
forcing shifts northward. During these breaks though, some drizzle
will be quite possible as the model forecast soundings overall show
a period of mid to upper level drying while the low levels remain
moist. This may also result in a more showery pattern evolving
across Delmarva especially this afternoon. Also, the leading edge of
the rain today looks to battle some lingering dry mid level air and
therefore it should be rather light or even sprinkles to start and
also may take longer to reach our far northern zones.

As the new surface low consolidates and moves north to off the New
Jersey coast later tonight, the forcing for ascent should increase
for a time again and this may be tied to a zone of enhanced
frontogenetic forcing to the north and west of the surface low.
Depending on the strength and placement of this, a zone of heavier
rain is certainly possible. This should also result in an increase
in the rain from west to east across much of the area this evening.
An easterly low-level jet migrates northward across our area,
especially tonight into Thursday morning, which could add to the
ascent across parts of the region. Some of the rain will be heavier
at times, which is when some localized urban flooding cannot be
ruled out. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 1.0-1.5 inches
across the region through the day Thursday. Some elevated
instability could occur for a time especially this evening mostly
south and east of Philadelphia, although it is less certain if it
would be enough to result in some lightning/thunder.

Onshore flow will increase as the surface low develops to our south
today, however this looks to peak later this afternoon and tonight
from south to north. Therefore, easterly wind gusts in the 25-35 mph
range are forecast with the strongest gusts closer to the coast.
Once the surface low shifts north and northeastward during Thursday,
the surface winds will shift out of the north and northwest and may
diminish some. Any rain Thursday should become more showery across
the area.

Given the rain/showers, low cloud cover and onshore flow,
temperatures will be held way down today with a little recovery
Thursday with the lessening precipitation and the flow backing to
the north and northwest. The warmer temperatures should be most
improved Thursday across Delmarva into southern New Jersey where
less precipitation should occur and perhaps some breaks in the
overcast occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers will be starting to taper off as the energy from the low
pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes transfers to a
developing low over the Gulf of Maine. With the parent upper
level low still sitting over NE, there will be a round of PVA
that provides enough lift for some isolated to scattered
showers on Friday with generally on the order of a 0.1" or so of
additional rainfall. Temps will be seasonably cool with highs in
the 60s on Friday.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the upper level low progresses towards the Gaspe Peninsula
over the weekend, the rain chances for the weekend should be
tapering off. Certainly can`t rule out a stray shower however
the support for unsettled weather should be displaced to the
north and east.

Temperatures will be below normal this weekend, but temperatures
will be creeping up somewhat from what they will be late this
week. Highs will mostly be in the 60s on Saturday, and then in
the 60s to low 70s on Sunday.

The upper low departs by Monday and weak surface high pressure
noses in from the west. Low pressure organizing and developing
over the Gulf Coast states will lift north and east and looks to
pas south of the region. Uncertain as to how far north this
system will be able to track. For now, will continue with
continuity carrying slight chance- chance PoPs on Monday and
chance PoPs on Tuesday, but there may end up being a tight
north-south gradient depending on the strength and placement of
the aforementioned high. Highs creep back up into the low 70s
early in the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR ceilings lower to MVFR and IFR along with periods of
rain developing this morning, the continuing this afternoon.
Visibility restrictions will occur due to the rain, especially
during periods of some heavier rain. Southeast to east winds
becoming east-northeast 5-10 knots, then increasing to 10-15 knots
with gusts 20-30 knots this afternoon. The strongest winds should be
closer to the coast. Low confidence regarding the timing
details.

Tonight...Mainly IFR ceilings, MVFR visibilities, with periods of
rain or some showers. A couple of thunderstorms possible in the
evening mainly south and east of KPHL. East to east-northeast winds
10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots, diminishing to 10 knots or less
overnight. Moderate confidence overall.

Thursday...IFR, possibly LIFR, conditions along with periods of rain
tapering to some showers. An afternoon thunderstorm possible mainly
east and south of KPHL. Northeast winds 10-15 knots, becoming north
to northwest. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Ceilings improve to MVFR, then possibly VFR
late. Some showers around.

Friday through Saturday...Brief sub-VFR conditions possible in
some showers.

Sunday...VFR overall. No sig wx.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today, tonight and part of
Thursday. Onshore winds will increase as a coastal storm develops
today with winds peaking late this afternoon and especially tonight
from south to north. While some gusts to near gale-force will be
possible tonight across mainly the northern New Jersey Atlantic
coastal waters, confidence is low and therefore will maintain a
strong Small Craft Advisory. Seas will also build to and above 5
feet. The conditions will gradually improve Thursday as the winds
turn more from the north and northwest as low pressure shifts north
and then northeast.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Conditions continue to improve.

Friday through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions.

Rip Currents...

For today, east winds will increase to 15-25 mph with a 5-6
second period and breaking waves of 2-3 feet. A MODERATE risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents is in place for
all beaches, however a HIGH risk may be warranted pending
further conditions.

For Thursday, gusty northeast winds 25-30 mph for Ocean and
Monmouth County. Winds will be more west-northwest for Atlantic,
Cape May, and Sussex counties 20-25 mph. Seas will be 3 to 5
feet north with 2 to 4 feet south with a swell of 5 to 6 feet
with a 8 second period. A HIGH risk was issued for Ocean and
Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk was issued for the rest of
the coast.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to noon EDT
     Thursday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/MPS
NEAR TERM...Gorse
SHORT TERM...Deal/MPS
LONG TERM...Deal/MPS
AVIATION...Deal/Gorse/MPS
MARINE...Deal/Gorse/MPS