Perth Amboy, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

883
FXUS61 KPHI 252328
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
628 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Friday morning. A low pressure
system will bring widespread wintry precipitation to the region
later Friday into early Saturday. Another system will impact
the region late Sunday. Cold and dry high pressure will build
and persist through Tuesday. Another weak clipper system is
possible next Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The colder air is arriving across the northern Middle Atlantic region
behind a cold front which will move offshore this evening. Winds will
continue to shift from West to Northwest this evening and then eventually
go North overnight. Gusty winds will diminish 7PM/8PM most spots.
It`ll be colder tonight (compared to last night) with widespread
low/mid 20s and teens for the Poconos and north NJ. The winds and
temps will create windchills in the teens generally with single digits
for Mount Pocono. Skies will average out to partly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A winter storm will impact the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
night. The main change with this update was upgrading the Winter
Storm Watches to either a Warning or an Advisory. In terms of change
to the forecast, snowfall amounts were not necessarily cut, but the
area of highest amounts was trimmed down area-wise to try and narrow
down where the mesoscale banding will set up. Amounts in the jackpot
zone generally have remained around 6 to 10 inches with this update,
with amounts south of the highest totals quickly falling off. The
gradient in snowfall amounts will be tight, making this a very
tricky forecast.

Getting into the meat and potatoes of the forecast, an area of low
pressure will move out of the Great Lakes, diving toward the Mid-
Atlantic and moving offshore by Saturday morning. As it passes, it
brings wintry precipitation to the area. Canadian high pressure will
be in place to start the day, locking in some low-level cold air
with a modest cold air damming pattern, especially over SE PA.

Precipitation moves in during the early to mid afternoon, starting
out as snow in most areas, with a gradual change over to freezing
rain and sleet depending on the location. Some locations, especially
in South Jersey and Delmarva, will change to all rain. A warm nose
aloft around 725-750 mb will move northward as the afternoon and
evening progress. Thinking that warm nose gets to about I-78, a bit
further north compared to previous updates. This will result in
periods of sleet cutting into snow totals over New Jersey and the I-
95 corridor. With low-level cold air over SE PA and Southern NJ
struggling to warm at the surface, a period of freezing rain is
expected with measurable ice anticipated.

North of I-78 and south of the Catskills, a mesoscale band will set
up, producing snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. The timing for this
band moving through will be around 6 PM to 1 AM, give or take an
hour or so. Currently thinking the southern periphery of the heavy
banding will be over the I-80 corridor, impacting our northern tier
of counties (Warren/Morris/Sussex in NJ and Monroe in PA). The
Winter Storm Watch was converted to a Winter Storm Warning in these
counties as forecast amounts are 6 to 10". The warm nose aloft will
be trying to push into these zones, but thinking the strong dynamics
and lift will keep the precipitation type as mainly snow. NBM and
HREF Probabilities of hitting 6" or more was around 50-80%, so it is
not a slam dunk as the points of uncertainty and failure modes are
evident. If the heavier band sets up further north or south, these
areas likely see their totals cut in half. The same is true if the
warm nose moves further north. However, enough confidence exists to
go with a warning.

The forecast gets even more uncertain for central New Jersey and the
northern Lehigh Valley. There is high confidence in mixed
precipitation occuring, the question remains how much and how much
snow falls before the warm nose reaches this area. Current forecast
has about 2 to 5" or so of snow and sleet with a glaze of ice
possible in the Allentown area. The Winter Storm Watch in this area
was converted to a Winter Weather Advisory with lower, sub-warning
snow totals.

Around the Philly metro area and into South Jersey, 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Areas along and west of the Delaware River also see
some light icing, up to a 0.05" or so. Thinking the stronger
dynamics and colder air is more off to the north, limiting snow
totals with a brief period of snow and a prolonged period of sleet.
While less snow is expected, it will be quite messy with the
combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The Winter Storm
Watch was converted to a Winter Weather Advisory in this area as
well.

Going further south to far South Jersey, and northern Delmarva there
is increased confidence in potentially some more icing compared to
other locations. Low-level cold air will struggle to be removed as
warm-air advection at the surface is not particularly strong. The
result will be a period of freezing rain and a Winter Weather
Advisory for icing rather than snow in Salem/Cumberland County in
NJ, New Castle County in DE, and Kent County in DE. HREF Probability
is around 60-80% to see measurable ice accumulation in these spots
tomorrow night. While there will be some snow at onset, significant
accumulations are unexpected, with amounts only up to an inch.

For the South Jersey coast and lower Delmarva, this will primarily
be a rain event. While some flakes are possible at onset, a
quick change to rain is expected.

Overall, disruptions are expected tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow
night as the system moves through. Periods of snow, sleet, and/or
freezing rain/ice will make travel dangerous and anyone with travel
will see disruptions.

Precipitation tapers off Saturday morning but some lingering snow
showers remain into the afternoon. Some guidance even potentially
hints at some freezing drizzle over northern and central NJ, but not
exactly confident in how things will evolve as the system departs.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the low to mid 30s over the
northern half of the area, with upper 30s/low 40s in the southern
half.

We dry out on Saturday Night, though stay mostly cloudy as another
system approaches. Temperatures drop into the teens where there
likely will be a snowpack, with 20s for the rest of the region.

Temperatures moderate on Sunday with a warm front trying to work
through. Most of the area gets above freezing with mid to upper 30s
north of Philadelphia and 40s from Philly on south. Showers approach
on Sunday afternoon, but the bulk of rain falls Sunday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term period begins with a potent storm system moving through
the Great Lakes, pushing a warm front northward Sunday night with
rain (possibly some mixed precip in the far northern parts of NJ and
the Poconos), then a dragging a cold front through on Monday with
more showers. Winds ramp up ahead of the front late Sunday
night/Monday morning but then really increase just behind the front
later Monday and persist into Tuesday. A Wind Advisory may be
necessary at some point, probably Monday night. From that point,
cold northwest flow will prevail for several days, with another
potential clipper system Thursday into Friday. However, at this
point confidence is very low so did not include in the forecast.

Temperatures Sunday night will moderate, with lows in the 30s Sunday
evening before temps spike up to the 40s far north, 50s near Philly,
and low 60s southern Delaware. Rest of the forecast will feature
lows in the teens north and 20s elsewhere, with highs in the 30s for
most, near 40 southern Delaware but 20s in the Poconos.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight... VFR expected with mostly just high clouds overnight.
Winds will diminish this evening and then gradually shift from
Northwest this evening to Northeast by dawn. High confid.

Friday... VFR thru the morning then lowering CIGS during the
afternoon. Precipitation expected to affect the terminals from west
to east in the 18Z thru 00Z period. Wrote an MVFR group for PHL at
23z which mentions the possibility of sleet.  East winds up to 10
knots. High then medium confid.

Outlook...

Friday Evening through Saturday Morning...Conditions expected
to drop down to IFR/LIFR with all precipitation types on the
table. Precipitation starts out as snow, and will quickly change
to sleet and all rain at KMIV/KACY. For the I-95 corridor, snow
will change to a prolonged period of sleet, with possibly some
brief freezing rain, especially at KPHL/KPNE/KILG. Precipitation
should change to all rain at some point from KPNE on south
after 06z. Confidence remains low on timing of precipitation
types and precipitation changes. Winds generally out of the east
around 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday Afternoon through Sunday...VFR, though cannot rule out some
lingering restrictions. No significant weather.

IFR likely Sunday night and Monday with periods of rain. Gusty winds
develop as the rain tapers off late Monday and continue through
Tuesday, but VFR should prevail by then.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes will be made to the marine flags. West to Northwest winds
will freshen and seas will build as the colder air arrives tonight.
Low-end SCA winds and seas continue Friday morning. Seas on the ocean
will reach 4 to 5 ft overnight. Fair tonight and much of Friday.

Outlook...

Friday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 1 PM Friday as
seas will be around 5 feet. This may need to be extended, though at
least for now, sub-SCA conditions are expected after through the
rest of the day.

Friday Night...No marine headlines expected. Periods of rain and
snow, with some sleet mixed in.

Saturday...SCA conditions expected on the ocean with seas building,
to around 4 to 6 feet. Conditions diminish Saturday night.

Sunday...sub-SCA conditions expected. Fair early then rains for
the afternoon into the evening.

Winds ramp up Sunday night through Monday with periods of rain.
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Sunday night with gales
developing Monday and persisting through Tuesday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for PAZ070-101-102.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for PAZ055.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for PAZ054-060>062-071-103>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NJZ009-010-012>021-026-027.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NJZ001-007-008.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for DEZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for MDZ012.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...MJL/OHara
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL/OHara/RCM
MARINE...Hoeflich/OHara/RCM