Hoboken, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

384
FXUS61 KOKX 141936
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As a frontal wave passes to the east this evening, high pressure
will build in from the northeast. The high will continue to
influence the area into early next week as it works slowly out
into the North Atlantic. A warm front begins to approach on
Tuesday and passes through on Wednesday. A cold front then follows
for Thursday night. High pressure then takes control for Friday
and Saturday with only a weak cold front passing through Friday
night.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The steadiest light rain across the NYC/NJ metro and Long
Island will gradually shift south and east into this evening as
low pressure to the southeast works farther offshore. However,
with abundant low-level moisture and a potential for weak lift,
plan to maintain a low chance of light rain and/or drizzle. High
pressure centered near Nova Scotia will build into the area
tonight behind the departing low. This will bring in some drier
through the night. This should keep Father`s Day dry, but with
plenty of cloudy clover. Model time height cross sections show
mid level dry air with deep moisture below 700 mb. There could
be enough drying for some peaks of sun in the afternoon across
eastern CT and eastern LI.

Lows tonight will in the mid to upper 50s for much of the area,
but around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s
to around 70. Stayed with the warmer NBM as locations on Saturday
overachieved for those locations where the rain stopped. Airmass
should be very similar, minus the rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure will remain in control even as the center
of the high gradually works east out into the North Atlantic.
There will remain plenty of low-level moisture with mostly
cloudy conditions lingering for all but eastern LI and SE CT,
where there could be breaks in the cloud cover. A weak easterly
flow will continue as well with high pressure across the area
and a stalled frontal boundary to the south over the Mid
Atlantic states.

Lows Sunday night will change little in the mid to upper 50s,
except around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Monday will begin
there gradual uptick heading into the upcoming week, around 70
for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak riding aloft Monday night into Tuesday as the h5 flow gets
amplified by a shortwave shifting in to the Ohio Valley. Most of the
time is expected to be dry as the mean ridging aloft should help
offset any subtle PVA, but left in a slight chance of an afternoon
shower across the western half of the forecast area as per NBM. The
warm front then moves through during the day Wednesday with rain
chances for both Tuesday night due to lift ahead of the front, and
for Wednesday with frontal passage itself, followed by increasing
instability later in the day.

Global models still disagree regarding when of an amplifying h5
trough axis shifts through within the Thursday night-Friday time
frame. GFS has slowed down noticeably in this regard over the past
24 hours, with ECMWF and Canadian more consistently showing the axis
shifting through during Friday morning. Not surprisingly, LREF
ensemble clusters therefore lean toward the EPS/CMCE camp over GEFS.
Associated cold front is therefore still slated for a Thursday night
passage, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a focus
for convective initiation in an increasingly unstable air mass. As
such, NBM has expanded likely PoPs (60-70%) into most of the Lower
Hudson Valley and adjacent spots for Thursday afternoon/early
evening. Potential shear and CAPE would lead to the chance of at
least strong thunderstorms. Too early in the game to have much
confidence in the severe wx potential, but something to watch.
Leaned more toward the 25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for
most spots, which is still warmer than the deterministic numbers. h8
temps progged at 18-19C without too much convective debris should
allow for low-mid 90s in the typically warmest spots. This coupled
with dewpoints around 70 could have some heat impacts.

High pressure would then be the dominant feature for Friday and
Saturday with only perhaps a weak cold front or trough moving
through during Friday night. Cold pool aloft on Friday could help
trigger an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High
temperatures both days in the 80s and about 3-5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Stationary front remains south of the area as an area of low
pressure moves along the boundary today. High pressure builds into
the region from the northeast late tonight into Sunday morning.

MVFR or IFR with light rain into late day. Rain expected to taper by
early evening, but near IFR cigs likely persist tonight. More
widespread improvement to MVFR by mid Sunday AM. Possible return to
VFR by afternoon, though cigs may remain MVFR thru the day.

Winds NE around 10 to 15 kt through today, diminishing a few kts
this evening. ENE on Sunday with speeds at or under 10 kt.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories through TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM - Monday: Slight chance of showers, mainly from NYC
terminals and west, with MVFR possible at times.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers late day into the
night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday - Thursday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with a period of sub-VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains up for the ocean waters tonight with NE flow at 15
to 20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas will build to around 5 ft.
The flow relaxes some the second half of the night. It is
possible that 5 ft seas linger a bit longer into Sunday morning.
Confidence remains low. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions expected
through Monday.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across all waters Monday
night through at least Thursday morning. SW winds pick up in the
afternoon ahead of a cold front, with gusts possibly up to 25 kt on
the ocean - lasting into the evening. Ocean seas could reach 5 ft
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

Next chance for impacts would be Thursday into Thursday night with
scattered thunderstorms. The airmass is moist, but the anticipated
speed of the cells would mitigate potential rain amounts. With that
said, there`s still the potential of at least minor urban/poor
drainage flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development remains for the rest of
today into this evening.

The moderate risk continues into Sunday with an E-SE wave component
around 4 ft at 6s.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...