Edison, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

817
FXUS61 KPHI 141842
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
242 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The timing of today`s convection has trended a bit later, now mostly
taking place this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this evening.

2. Widespread minor coastal flooding continues with the evening
high tide cycles tonight along the Atlantic coast and Delaware
Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for tonight`s
high tide.

3. Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this evening.

For today, an expansive upper-level trough across much of eastern
Canada will gradually shift eastward. Some stronger shortwave energy
within the southern portion of the trough will slide across our
area. At the surface, a cold front will be tied to this feature,
which is forecast to cross through this evening. There is also
indications of a pre-frontal trough as well. The low to mid level
flow will increase in response to these features, which will
increase both the warm air and low-level moisture advection.

At this point, still have high confidence that showers and
thunderstorms will be around portions of the area this evening.
However, guidance continues to delay the timing of convection today,
with storms looking to move into the area anywhere between 7-10 PM
from west to east. Suppose a few stray diurnally driven showers or
storms may occur before then, but it really looks like the main
event will be later on as the warm layer aloft at ~800 mb is still
present in the PHL ACARS sounding as of 18Z.

With the stronger synoptic forcing and better moisture return
arriving this evening, guidance indicates bulk shear values around
40 kt which will aid storm organization. MLCAPEs will max out around
1000 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg and PWATs around 1.8-2.0 inches,
which all support wet microbursts, indicating damaging wind gusts
remain the main hazard. Shear will be weaker across our area
compared to areas further north, but the above parameters should at
least maintain the stronger storms into tonight. As of this
afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a SLIGHT risk
(level 2/5) for severe weather this evening. Also, given that PWATs
are abnormally high, we also cannot rule out some localized flash
flooding, especially near/over the urban corridor. The limiting
factor, however, will be rapid storm motion.

The cold front and associated convection should be largely out of
the area by 1-3 AM Monday though the severe threat will be
decreasing by around midnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor coastal flooding continues with
the evening high tide cycles tonight along the Atlantic coast and
Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for tonight`s
high tide.

A New Moon is occurring this weekend and resulting in higher than
normal astronomical tides. Further rounds of tidal flooding are
expected with the evening/nighttime high tide cycles tonight and
potentially Monday for the Atlantic Coast and Delaware Bay.

The tidal Delaware River and its tributaries could experience some
spotty minor tidal flooding (non-advisory) with tonight`s high tide
but generally these astronomical tide driven flooding events produce
more noteworthy impacts for the Atlantic coasts and Delaware Bay.
The highest of the New Moon tides will be tonight and Monday night.
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for this evening (Jersey
Shore/Delaware Beaches/Delaware Bay Communities/Middlesex County for
the Raritan Bay).

Tidal flooding is not currently expected along the eastern shore of
Chesapeake Bay.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon
and evening.

An upper-level trough centered over south-central Canada is forecast
to strengthen eastward and also southward across the Great Lakes to
end the week. A strong shortwave rounding the base of this trough
may result in a portion of it taking on a negative tilt across the
eastern Great Lakes and toward New England late Wednesday and Thursday.
This feature is a bit stronger in the ECMWF solution, while the
GFS ensembles are mostly a little weaker. A deepening surface low
will accompany it and track across the eastern Great Lakes and into
adjacent Canada during Thursday. A strong cold front will then arrive
into our area Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.

As the synoptic pattern evolves, the flow will increase out of the
south and southwest. This will advect deeper moisture northward, and
in tandem with strengthening warm air advection will lead to
increased instability during the day Thursday. In addition, a strong
mid to upper level jet is forecast to extend eastward from the
eastern Great Lakes. While the core of the 500 mb jet (80-100 knots)
is forecast to remain mainly northwest of our area, 40-70 knots of
flow at 500 mb is still forecast across our area Thursday afternoon
into the evening. This increased flow will result in greater shear
magnitudes. While there remains some timing differences among the
guidance regarding the main features, the consensus is that enough
instability should overlap with the stronger shear along with
incoming stronger forcing. As a result, there continues to be some
severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon and evening. As of
now, locally damaging winds are the primary threat especially if
convection develops into a squall line. However if shear and
instability ends up being even greater, than all severe thunderstorm
hazards may come into play especially if the mode is discrete for a
time. The details remain much less certain at this time range given
the typical uncertainty with instability and the thermodynamic
profiles. The forecast synoptic setup however with a deepening
surface low tracking to our northwest with strong flow within a
warmer and more moist environment suggests some risk for severe
thunderstorms. In addition, the main trough may end up arriving on
Friday with some additional chances for showers and some
thunderstorms.

The I-95 corridor and the coastal plain (away from the immediate
coast) looks to be the hottest during Thursday ahead of the
convection, with the heat indices potentially getting very close to
100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR with increasing clouds. Outside of stray shower,
any convective activity is expected to occur tonight (see below).
South-southwest winds around 10-15 kt gusting up to 20-25 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR to start the night. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to move into the area around 23-02Z for
western areas, and 02-05Z for eastern areas. Expect brief periods of
MVR/IFR conditions with storms with a lingering period of some
showers and MVFR conditions in wake of the storms. Improvement
expected by 06-09Z. Southerly winds around 5-10 kt tonight, becoming
northwesterly around 10-15 kt in wake of the front. Winds associated
with evening convection could briefly gust to 40+ knots. Moderate
confidence as a whole.

Monday...VFR with a few/scattered clouds in the afternoon.
Northwest winds around 10-15 kt, occasionally gusting up to 20 kt.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. Northwest winds quickly diminish and becoming
light and variable.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Some sub-VFR conditions with a few showers or a
thunderstorm possible.

Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions probable in the afternoon
and evening as showers and some thunderstorms increase.

Friday...Some showers and thunderstorms may linger with areas of sub-
VFR conditions possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic Coastal
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Cape Henlopen DE through midnight
tonight. Small Craft Advisories on the Delaware Bay remain in
effect until 8 PM this evening.

Southerly winds this afternoon are expected to increase to around 15-
20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds will diminish overnight as winds
turn northwesterly behind a cold front. Northwest winds will
generally remain around 15-20 kt through Monday morning, however a
few rogue gusts up to 22-23 kt are possible before further
diminishing throughout the day. Seas generally around 2-4 feet,
locally 5 feet tonight, and around 2-3 feet on Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely through tonight, which may
cause localized higher winds/seas. Some marine fog possible tonight
as well. On Monday, fair weather expected.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to
be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Thursday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.
Southerly wind gusts could near gale force for a time later Thursday.
Some gusty thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening possible.

Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For this afternoon, southerly winds 10-20 mph with some higher
gusts. However, a medium period swell around 6-8 seconds will
continue along with breaking waves once again 2 feet or less for
most beaches. The exception will be at southern facing beaches
in Cape May and Atlantic counties where breaking waves in the
surf zone will be up to 3 feet as the winds will be most
directly onshore here. Therefore, the risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents will be higher for these beaches, and
a MODERATE risk is forecast for these two counties. For the
remainder of the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches, a LOW
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast.

For Monday, winds become northwest 10-20 mph with a continued
medium southerly swell of 6-7 seconds. With breaking waves 2
feet or less, have gone with a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>454.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Gorse/Hoeflich
AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Gorse