East Brunswick, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXUS61 KPHI 140658
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
258 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid air will be over the region this week. A
cold front will move eastward into the region late today, and
then become stationary in our area on Tuesday and Wednesday. It
will move northward as a warm front on Thursday. Another cold
front approaches toward the end of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical air mass sits over the region presently as southerly
winds ahead of an approaching cold front bring extremely moist
air northward. Even early this morning, just enough forcing is
present for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of
our region but extending into our northern zones, producing
locally heavy rain as a result. These should mostly move away
and weaken towards dawn, with low clouds becoming widespread.
Lows mainly in the 70s.

Clouds will struggle to break again today, but approaching cold
front will help increase wind flow just enough to help hasten
some breaks of sun. This in turn will help increase CAPE to near
or above 2000 j/kg as PW`s approach 2.5 inches. This will all
occur just ahead of an approaching shortwave which will slowly
cross the region this evening. Thus... we should have no trouble
getting good thunderstorm coverage, and with very high moisture
available and relatively slow movement, flash flooding is a big
concern later today into tonight. Guidance suggests there could
be locations in the CWA which receive 3-5 inches of rain in just
an hour two late today/this evening, so have expanded flood
watch time by one tier of counties in both directions and
extended time several hours, given what`s happening now just to
our north and several models suggesting that convection won`t
wind down til after midnight. Til storms roll through, however,
its gonna be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the
mid-upper 80s for most and heat indices well into the 90s.

After storms do finally start to wind down later tonight, low
clouds and fog will become a concern again with plenty of
moisture and light winds. Lows near or above 70 again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The previously mentioned front is expected to stall over our
region through mid week. A mid to upper level short wave ridge
will try to build in from the southwest, which could work to
suppress coverage of convection despite the presence of the
decaying frontal boundary. However, there is uncertainty in how
quickly this ridge will build east.

Scattered showers and storms are probable Tuesday and
Wednesday, primarily in the afternoon and evening, and
especially along and south of where ever the frontal boundary
ends up. Precipitable water values will remain well above
average, so locally heavy downpours will remain possible. At
this point, the risk for severe hazards is low.

Seasonable temperatures with humid conditions can be expected
through this period. High temperatures will be mainly in the mid
to upper 80s, with muggy nighttime low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s. Fog formation is possible for areas during the late
nighttime and early morning periods, but this will be dependent
on precipitation occurrence and mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will start off with a focus of dangerously hot
conditions, before another cold front approaches the region late
in the week.

Humid air will remain in place, and with continued
southwesterly flow (before the next cold front arrives), warm
air advection will continue. As such, heat index values near or
above 100F will be possible across most of the area (excluding
higher terrain in the Poconos and NW NJ) on Thursday. Depending
on the timing of the cold front, similar hot and muggy
conditions could continue on Friday.

This pattern supports a continuation of the showery and stormy
summertime pattern. Expect mostly diurnally driven
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, that will be
limited in coverage. However, the next cold front will probably
end up being a focus for more widespread rain. As for severe
hazards, no strong signal either way; if the front comes in
during peak heating (which is unlikely at this point), then the
risk for severe storms could increase. Heavy downpours will
remain possible through the entire week. The severe thunderstorm
potentially will probably be more mesoscale drive than
synoptic, typical of July.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 12Z...Isolated SHRA/TSRA mainly NW of I-95. Otherwise, some
reduction in cigs expected but guidance is struggling worse than
last night on the severity of the drop. Low confidence.

Today...Overall, becoming VFR, at least for a time. Afternoon
SHRA/TSRA will result in MVFR or lower conditions. Have VCTS
with TEMPOs where/when confidence greatest. S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR in SHRA/TSRA in the evening. Sub-VFR
conditions in fog and stratus possible thereafter. Low
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Overall, prevailing VFR conditions.
However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief
periods of sub-VFR conditions daily. Sub-VFR conditions are also
possible overnights/early mornings due to low clouds and fog,
but uncertainty remains on this potential, so confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should generally stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through tonight. Gusty winds could be possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms late today/this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Winds and seas should stay below
Small Craft Advisory criteria through this period. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the late
afternoon and evening hours.

Rip Currents...

Today, winds will be out of the south-southeast at 5-10 mph
with breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with a 1-2
foot easterly swell around 6 seconds in length will result in a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening
rip currents at all beaches.

Tuesday, southerly winds 5-10 mph with breaking waves around 1
to 2 feet. This combined with an easterly swell around 1 foot at
6-7 seconds in length will result in a continued LOW risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents
at all beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As mentioned above, there is a risk for heavy rain leading to
flash flooding with any showers and storms Monday. A flood watch
for flash flooding was issued for southeastern Pennsylvania,
and the I-195 to I-80 corridor in New Jersey.

As mentioned by the previous shift, there are a lot of factors
that are increasing our risk for flash flooding. To start, the
pattern shows some similarities to the Maddox Synoptic Event
pattern, with the front becoming quasi stationary and limited
wind shear between the low and upper levels. Model soundings
indicate a tall, skinny CAPE profile typical of a heavy rain
pattern. Expect precipitable water values well above the 90th
percentile for this time of year, and possibly close to daily
records. Additionally, the warm cloud layer should be quite
deep, and storm motions, although slightly faster than what we
have seen Friday and Saturday, will still be less than 20mph.

The only factors not present that typically are with heavy rain
events is that wind shear will be weaker than typical (near or
below 10 kt), and there doesn`t look like there will be much of
a low level jet for moisture transport. This could limit how
long individual cells last before dissipating. Additionally,
confidence is lower than normal on the placement and amount of
precip given how poorly high resolution models have depicted the
showers and thunderstorms today.

At this point, the biggest concern is for flash flooding on
roadways, in urban areas, and for small streams and creeks. What
areas have flash flooding will be highly dependent on where the
heaviest downpours set up.

Significant main stem river flooding isn`t expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for DEZ001.
MD...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for MDZ012-015-019.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franklin/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Johnson/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Johnson/Staarmann
AVIATION...Johnson/RCM
MARINE...Johnson/RCM
HYDROLOGY...Johnson