602
FXUS61 KOKX 151429
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1029 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass today followed by high pressure in
control through the weekend. Another cold front will move
through Sunday night into Monday, with weak high pressure
returning on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will pass thru the area this afternoon. Subsidence
and dry air aloft should help to create at least some partial
clearing in the afternoon. The fropa is expected to be dry with
no moisture source outside of the Great Lakes. Light NW/VRB
flow increase out of the NW behind the front. Temps in the 60s
and the NBM was followed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW flow tngt with temps dropping into the 30s and 40s. Temps and
wind not conducive to any widespread frost attm.
Breezy and cool on Thu with high temps remaining in the 50s most
areas. NW winds will continue. Skies should be relatively cloud
free with subsidence and a dry airmass.
Cool again Thu ngt, but the winds are progged to keep most areas
from bottoming out. Some of the more sheltered areas and/or
valleys could decouple and allow temps to drop blw the current
NBM guidance which was used for this fcst. In that case, some
patchy frost would be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The fcst thinking remains on track and the NBM was followed.
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend. It
will remain somewhat breezy on Fri due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure building from west and
strengthening low pressure meandering out over the open
Atlantic.
* Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs
only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temps Fri night could fall
to 35-40 inland and into 40s elsewhere.
* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to
the north and vertically stacked high pressure builds over
and east of the area. Temperatures should reach 65-70 on Sat
and 70-75 on Sunday.
* A cold front and associated closed low aloft will bring
showers mainly Sunday night into Monday. High temps Mon/Tue
will be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front passes through late this morning into the early
afternoon. High pressure gradually builds thereafter through the
remainder of the TAF period.
VFR conditions throughout.
Winds will remain northerly through the forecast. Winds increase
through early this afternoon and will be gusty, generally to 18-
23kt, backing a bit towards NNW during the afternoon. Gusts likely
persist into much of the evening. Although gusts subside for the
overnight, sustained winds at around 10 kt should persist for most
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An occasional gust higher than forecast will be possible today.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR. NNW winds G15-25kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. Late day showers possible Sunday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean thru tngt. The advy will
likely need to be extended each day, with SCA cond possible thru
Fri. Elsewhere, NW winds will pick up again late today and tngt
behind a fropa. The NW winds then continue thru Fri. A SCA may
be needed starting tngt thru Fri as a result.
All waters may drop blw SCA lvls on Sat, the winds and waves
increase again Sun due to another frontal sys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Offshore flow and less tidal piling should mitigate most
flooding threats for at least the next few days.
With N flow relaxing on Fri, a couple of the more vulnerable
spots along the Fairfield CT coastline and along the back bays
of S Nassau/SW Suffolk south may get close to minor thresholds,
but confidence in this is low. With S flow and seas increasing
on Sunday ahead of a cold front, there is medium confidence
that tidal piling and elevated astronomical tides associated
with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some spotty minor
coastal flooding in these same areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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